Mathematician 1734
1 Bet Today
Cheltenham 1.50
SPRING HEELED 15/2
Each Way
M e s s a g e C o n t e n t
Cheltenham Only today apart from one race at
Wetherby. It's unusual for a Saturday message to
only concentrate on one meeting but this is the
premium track on a big day and to be honest I
don't see much I like elsewhere. After doing so
well yesterday we deserve the right to stay with
Cheltenham and see if we can get it right again.
* Specially extended Sires and Systems Piece
* A 1-604 negative also seen as 0-530 or 0-587
* Sunday Message around 11.30am tomorrow
C h e l t e n h a m S e l e c t i o n s
Cheltenham 12.40 - ROYAL IRISH HUSSAR 10/11
Cheltenham 1.15 - SAM WINNER 10/1 + to half stakes
Cheltenham 1.15 - AFRICAN GOLD 7/4 to half stakes
Cheltenham 1.50 - SPRING HEELED 8/1 Each Way
Cheltenham 2.30 - COLOUR SQUADRON 12/1 Win Bet
Cheltenham 2.30 - BALLYNAGOUR 8/1 Win Bet
Cheltenham 3.00 - MONETARY FUND 20/1 Each Way
Cheltenham 3.00 - CROSS KENNON 16/1 Each Way
Cheltenham 3.35 - INDEVAN 7/1 Win Bet
Cheltenham 3.35 - TIMESREMEMBERED 9/4 Saver
M e s s a g e H i g h l i g h t s
I have to Start with the Sires and Systems column
which throws up a 1-604 statistic that could in fact
be reported as a 0-530 or a 0-587 statistic. This has
to lead me to my only Non Cheltenham bet today.
Wetherby 5.50 - BLAKEMOUNT Win Bet
Cheltenham
Like yesterday I am happy with my selections.
Haven't cut any corners. I'd not put anyone off
following them to realistic stakes. Just needs a
decision whether I will advise an account bet.
I like ROYAL IRISH HUSSAR but he's too short
My Paddy Power Gold Cup opinion will be only
as good as anyone else's. I like BALLYNAGOUR
and COLOUR SQUADRON and am hopeful here
but it's just an intriguing puzzle and not really a
bet that I should be going with win lose or draw.
Cheltenham 3.00
MONETARY FUND 20/1 Each Way
CROSS KENNON 16/1 Each Way
There is some sense in this bet but you would
think something may beat both. I wouldnt rule
these out but it could be a bit a bit ambitious.
Cheltenham 3.35
INDEVAN 7/1 Win Bet
TIMESREMEMBERED 9/4 Saver
I do like this bet. It crossed my mind to have
an each way bet on INDEVAN instead. I don't
want to put a last time Faller out in a Graded
race though. Thats not a safe thing to do. On
profiles maybe Timesremembered should be
the number one. Prices have dictated the bet.
Cheltenham 1.50
SPRING HEELED 8/1
Each Way
He does have some improvement to find but
is one of the few that has plenty especially at
the distance. Not sure if a 0-158 handicap is a
bit too much to ask of a 6 year old. Soon we
will find out. In the spirit of Saturday I should
risk having bet. Thats what were all here for
but as ever I hope it doesn't detract from the
rest of the message as that's most important.
S i r e s a n d S y s t e m s
W e t h e r b y 3.50
4/5 Blakemount, 11/4 Sir Mangan
16/1 French Canadian, 16/1 King Kurt
25/1 Jokers And Rogues, 33/1 Light The City
33/1 Rozener, 50/1 Narcissist, 66/1 Major Martin.
I came across this system at Stupid O'clock
this morning. It looks very interesting. Easy
to understand the reasons why it produces
such results but I didn't expect it to be such
a powerful angle which adds to the interest.
* SIR MANGAN fails a 1-604 statistic
* I could show this as a 0-530 statistic
* I could show this as a 0-587 statistic
* November and December
* Every Novice Hurdle run during these two months
* Thats any distance over these two months
* Horses of any age that come from Bumpers
* Thats ordinary Bumpers and not Graded ones
* Running within the last 6 weeks
* There was a 74-1267 record
* Nothing much wrong with that
* Look at the horses that suffered bad defeats
* Look at those beaten OVER 23 Lengths last time
* The record was 1 winner in 604 runners
* That 1-604 record could be made better
* The only winner was Kangaroo Court 1998
* He started 7/2 in an Ascot Bumper 41 days before.
* He was beaten 25 lengths in that race
* He then won a Doncaster Novice Hurdle at 8/1
* If I looked at horses beaten 26 + lengths
* That then returns a record of 0-530
* If I go back to the original system
* Horses beaten over 23 lengths last time out
* If I then look at horses that ran within 40 days
* That then becomes a 0-587 record
Either way the implications are strong. They are
clearly saying that if you run in a recent bumper
it is extremely difficult to win any Novice Hurdle
if you suffered a heavy defeat in that bumper.
Wetherby 3.50
SIR MANGAN 11/4
* This horse fails this 1-604 statistic
* He fails the 0-530 and 0-587 angles I tinkered with
* Now obviously many of these would be outsiders
* There were 35 horses that lost starting 12/1 or shorter
* There were 24 horses that lost starting 8/1 or shorter
Donald McCain his trainer has said this about him
"He ran ok to a point at Aintree - he got a bit tired
and it was probably a decent bumper - he should
be sharper with that under his belt. I would expect
him to come on a good deal for it and I'd think the
trip around here should be perfect for him at this
stage of his career. It doesn't look a particularly
competitive event and I would be hopeful that he
would be bang there."
Obviously I see SIR MANGAN as a negative having
ran only 20 days ago and lost by 38 lengths. It tells
me BLAKEMOUNT 4/5 has an great chance. Many
of you will want to lay SIR MANGAN. I would argue
that if BLAKEMOUNT disappoints of falls then there
is nothing much on your side that can save you.
Many will see BLAKEMOUNT as a banker in light
of this system. That could well be true but I don't
rule out FRENCH CANADIAN and KING KURT both
roughly 16/1 chances and hard to read. There are
as ever many options or permutations available
good and bad to try and profit from this contest.
Some strategies will suit some and others not so
it comes down to personal betting styles really.
* SIR MANGAN - I have to oppose this horse
* BLAKEMOUNT - I have to expect him to win
T h u r s d a y s S u m m a r y
Well it was another masterclass really and some
fantastic results given how hard Cheltenham can
be. I will start with the best bet which was 2 wins
and each way double. Both THE GREAT GABRIAL
and QUICK JACK won easily landing the bet and
making a lovely profit. The only bad result there
was the opener as Standing Ovation looked tired.
Then the message went W P P W W W and little
went wrong all afternoon. ANAY TURGE won 8/1
and the beauty of that is we know there and then
it couldn't be a bad day. We got Oscar Whiskey
beaten much as it was only with the saver. Then
WHISPER placed each way after going odds on
in running. The horse I wanted to put out as the
bet was THE GREAT GABRIAL. He won easily at
a far shorter price. People often say that if they
miss the price they should not bet. To be honest
that is a Myth and depends entirely on just how
well they priced a race up. Nobody prices races
up well. This is a complete self illusion and only
the result of a race can be an accurate guide to
prices. You might say THE GREAT GABRIAL was
no value at 7/4 before the race but having won
easily we can say the true price was long odds
on. That pearl of wisdom begs the question why
I didn't make him a bet. All I can say is analysis
of horses is far easier than Self analysis at times.
BALTHAZAR KING then won. I think the key here
was I was right about Uncle Junior lacking a run
as he would have won with a prep race and the
fitness told and we got that right. QUICK JACK's
win in the last sealed the best bet and another
great message that made Cheltenham look easy.
P R O F I L E S & P R EV I E W S
C h e l t e n h a m 12.40
5/4 Royal Irish Hussar, 4/1 Art Mauresque
4/1 Azza, 7/1 Herod The Great, 8/1 Guitar Pete
20/1 Abracadabra Sivola, 50/1 Akdam.
* This is a Grade 2 Juvenile Hurdle
* There look to be 5 genuine contenders
* Abracadabra Sivola - Akdam look outclassed
* AZZA wouldn't be my first choice
* Fillies have a 0-27 record in this since 1997
* She is the only filly and only won at Carlisle
* She's highly promising but so are most of them
* GUITAR PETE doesn't do it for me
* His Flat form was modest and it puts me off him
* I wouldn't be sure he will get home on this track
* His sire is hardly one of the stouter sires out there
* HEROD THE GREAT is improving and in good form
* Hard to see why he should be made the selection
Shortlist
* ART MAURESQUE is the mystery horse
* Anything Paul Nicholls runs must be respected
* ROYAL IRISH HUSSAR is W W from two starts
* He was very impressive last time
* Comes from a good trial race and sets the standard
* Past winners best Racing Post Rating
* This is the best they achieved before winning
* It included runs in Bumper or Hurdles
* 118 125 119 95 119 132 137 106 115 124
* ROYAL IRISH HUSSAR has a 135 Racing Post Rating
* That is good enough to win 9 of the last 10 renewals
* Only Katchit (2006) had a bigger number
* He ended up winning a Champion Hurdle
* If ROYAL IRISH HUSSAR repeats his last figure
* And doesn't improve on that 135
* It would still be enough to win 8 of the last 10 renewals
Selection
ROYAL IRISH HUSSAR - 11/10
Win Bet
C h e l t e n h a m 1.15
7/4 African Gold, 5/2 Shutthefrontdoor
5/1 Le Bec, 6/1 White Star Line, 7/1 Sam Winner
16/1 Bob Ford.
* This is a 3m Novice Chase.
* Every past winner had Graded form since 1999
* BOB FORD doesn't have that and it's unacceptable
* Only 1 horse aged 5 has won this
* Horses aged 5 finished 4 2 4 2 4 3 W F 3 5
* The only 5yo winner had 2 recent runs
* AFRICAN GOLD is 5 and a seasonal debutant
* It means I can't match him to a winner
* LE BEC is also a 5 year old
* He has run this year just the once
* Again unlike any past winner
* LE BEC also comes from a 2m 4f race
* There were 2 past winners doing this
* Both winners were older than he is
* These had 2 and 6 previous Chase starts
* LE BEC only has one chase run
* As a 5yo doing this LE BEC looks unsafe
* WHITE STAR LINE also comes from 2m 4f
* Not sure I'd want a 9 year old doing that
* No horse his age has ever won this race
* He is far more exposed than these over fences
* He also ran in last years race and lost 20 lengths
* SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR is a 6 year old
* He comes from a 2m 4f Chase this season
* The 2003 and 2007 winners did this
* Both however were different than him
* Both had Graded Class and he doesn't
* They had 2 and 6 previous chase runs
* SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR only has 1 chase run
* That puts him in an unsafe place statistically
* I looked at past winners with 0-1 Chase starts
* The only winners had form in Graded Class over Hurdles
* SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR doesn't have that
* There are some flaws in his overall package
* Especially as all recent winners had Graded form
* SAM WINNER is a seasonal debutant aged 6
* Last years winner was 6 doing the same
* SAM WINNER has already had 2 Chase runs
* He Fell in both of these races
* That doesn't bother me much as he was a 4yo
* He fell at Cheltenham but had it all to do anyway
* No 4yo had won a Chase there beyond 17f
* SAM WINNER shouldn't be judged harshly on that
Conclusion
Applying these angles religiously most horses fail
one or more of my admittedly strict statistics. That
is unless you want to ignore that SAM WINNER has
already raced twice over fences in 2011 and Fell in
both races. I forgive him that as he was only 4 then.
Clearly he is risky. He fractured a Knee in 2011 and
from just 4 races since all he has won is a Jumpers
Bumper. He could get lost in this race and just flop
but equally he is a smart horse and I cant justify a
bet on something else with a riskier profile. In the
end I decided we should select him in a split stake
with AFRICAN GOLD who has the best hurdles form.
SAM WINNER 8/1 + Half your stake to win
AFRICAN GOLD 7/4 Half your stake to win
C h e l t e n h a m 1.50
9/2 Goulanes, 6/1 Godsmejudge, 7/1 Bradley
7/1 Spring Heeled, 8/1 Quentin Collonges
8/1 Tour Des Champs, 10/1 Monbeg Dude
12/1 Burton Port, 14/1 Ballybough Gorta
14/1 Knockara Beau, 16/1 Alvarado
20/1 Becauseicouldntsee, 33/1 On Trend.
* This is a Graded Handicap Chase over 3m 3f.
* There has been 20 renewals of this race
* The winner with the highest official rating was 152
* BURTON PORT is very hard to fancy off 158
* Especially after a poor seasonal return
* He's a small horse that looks very beatable
* Horses that raced this year won 12 races
* Seasonal debutants won 8 races
* There are 3 seasonal debutants today
* GODSMEJUDGE is a seasonal debutant aged 7
* Look at the 8 seasonal debutant winners
* 7 of these had Grade 1 form the other Grade 2 form
* GODSMEJUDGE Does not have that backclass
* Last time out he won the Scottish National
* That's put him up to a career high mark of 148
* Hard to argue he's well handicapped. Not for me.
* GOULANES is a seasonal debutant aged 7
* All seasonal debutants had at least 5 Chase runs
* GOULANES only has the 3 previous chase runs
* He also comes from a Novice Chase
* None of the 20 winners came from Novice Chases
* If he wins he wins but no winners were like him
* QUENTIN COLLONGES is a seasonal debutant
* He has Grade 2 backclass but he is exposed
* I'd much prefer Grade 1 form for an exposed debutant
* All previous exposed debutant winners had that
* QUENTIN COLLONGES won his last 2 races last season
* He now starts the year on a career high mark
* Wouldn't rule him out but he needs a career best
* Given he is a Henry Daly horse with an absence
* I'd want something more enticing to overlook that
* ALVARADO is hard to fancy in this class off his mark
* BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE doesn't offer enough
* I don't like that he comes from a Non Handicap Chase
* I don't like that he comes from 2m 4f
* I don't think he's up to this
* BALLYBOUGH GORTA is a 6 year old
* I don't like his 64 day absence
* I don't like his lack of backclass either
* He should be out of his depth here
* KNOCKARA BEAU is 10 and won last time out
* I respect his chance but he isn't my first choice
* He has a sketchy record on this track
* Mainly I feel because most races are big fields
* I think he's better in a small field
* His Chase wins came in fields of 8 7 9 4 7 6
* Look at his record in Chases with 10 + runners
* PU UR PU PU 6 6 7 4 5
* I think he will run well in defeat
* ON TREND is 7 and has a recent race
* The 2011 and 2012 winners did the same
* ON TREND was beaten further than both
* That makes him unlike any winners
* He comes from a significant trial race though
* The 1992 1993 1994 1995 winners came from the race
* That was a long time ago but few have tried it since
* Plenty of stamina he could be a surprise package
* I've seen 66/1 + to win and 12/1 + to place
* I don't think he will win but he shouldn't be that big
Shortlist
* MONBEG DUDE won this race last year at 25/1
* He then went and won the Welsh National
* He went off the boil after that
* Statistically he is respected
* He is not unlike the 1998 and 2001 winners
* Last year he won this off a mark of 121
* This year he faces a handicap mark of 138
* Will be tougher this year but he could go well
* It would worry me this is a Welsh National prep run
* Off 138 he'd have a reasonable weight in that race
* If he wins this he would be one of the topweights
* Reported to have had a few jumping issues at home
* Not convinced enough to make him a selection
* TOUR DES CHAMPS is 6 and ran this season
* There have been just 5 horses aged 6 doing that
* They finished F 2 F 5 W
* The 1996 winner had that profile
* He will probably need a career best to win
* He is after all 0-12 in Class 2 and higher
* Could run well. Not sure about the ground
* Would worry me he could be Welsh National bound
* Wouldn't be the first time this race was used as a prep
* BRADLEY was 2nd in this race last year
* He raced off 133 last year and had 10st 12lbs
* This year he has a mark of 128 and only 10st
* He is much better weighted this year
* Things went wrong in early 2013
* He had some excuses though with absences
* Had a nice warm up race and his stable are flying
* BRADLEY could easily win this race
* My only doubt is whether he is the type to deliver
* He's let his supporters down more than once
* SPRING HEELED is 6 and ran this season
* There have been just 5 horses aged 6 doing that
* They finished F 2 F 5 W
* The 1996 winner Challenger Du Luc had that profile
* SPRING HEELED ran 2nd in the Munster National
* I like the fact he has been running consistently well
* I see him as the fittest horse in the race
* Whether he's good enough I don't know
* 2 runs ago he was in Beginners and Novice Chases
* The track is another unproven factor
* He will love the ground though unlike most
* He promises to be better over this distance
* I like the fact he has 8 Chase starts
* The last 4 winners had just 4 6 9 6 Chase starts
* Given the ground I think he's the bet
Selection
SPRING HEELED 8/1
Each Way
C h e l t e n h a m 2.30
6/1 Champion Court, 7/1 Ballynagour, 7/1 Johns Spirit
10/1 Nadiya De La Vega, 10/1 Rajdhani Express
12/1 Colour Squadron, 12/1 Finian´s Rainbow
14/1 Hidden Cyclone, 14/1 Tap Night, 16/1 Battle Group
16/1 Conquisto, 20/1 Astracad, 20/1 Gift Of Dgab
20/1 Vino Griego, 25/1 Carrickboy, 25/1 Easter Meteor
25/1 Wishfull Thinking, 25/1 Woolcombe Folly
33/1 Attaglance, 33/1 Kumbeshwar.
* The Paddy Power is a Graded Chase over 2m 5f
* The winner of this should be aged 6-7-8-9
* The last winner aged 10 or more was back in 1975
* FINIANS RAINBOW is 10 and has topweight
* I couldn't justify betting him off 163
* I think there is a good chance he wont stay
* WISHFUL THINKING doesn't appeal aged 10
* WOOLCOMBE FOLLY is out for the same reason
* The lowest rated winner was 136
* ATTAGLANCE rated 131 could have class issues
* Since 1997 Seasonal debutants won 9 races
* Horses with recent races won 7 races
* Look at the 7 recent winners that raced that season
* They all ran within the previous 17 days
* Horses running this year absent 18 + days are 0-59
* ATTAGLANCE fails that
* GIFT OF DGAB fails it and doesn't offer enough
* He isn't like any previous 9yo winners
* JOHNS SPIRIT also fails this running 28 days ago
* JOHNS SPIRIT is a 139 rated 6 year old
* The 3 winners aged 6 were rated 136 138 139
* Thats a nice match much as he has more chase runs
* No 6yo won with 6 or more Chase runs (0-23) and he has 9
* Having 9 Chase runs is statistically healthy though
* There are statistical problems elsewhere though
* JOHNS SPIRIT has never run in Graded Class before
* Every recent past winner had done that
* 19 of the last 21 winners had Grade 1-2 form
* It worries me especially without running more recently
* HIDDEN CYCLONE has run twice this season
* His 59 day absence is not a good sign
* No horse ran this year absent 17 + days (0-59)
* I could overlook that as he does run well fresh
* As an 8yo with 9 Chase runs he is fine as well
* There are some other concerns about him
* His jumping is far from perfect and he makes mistakes
* He won't be able to make many at this track
* HIDDEN CYCLONE has never run at Cheltenham before
* Thats a big disadvantage as most winners had
* He also has to prove he stays this far in this class
* VINO GRIEGO has run this year and fallen
* Thats not the best of preparations
* VINO GRIEGO also has 22 previous Chase starts
* We know 9 of the last 10 winners had 12 or fewer
* There were 3 winners aged 8 in recent years
* VINO GRIEGO has a higher mark than all 3
* He also has a longer absence as well
* He's far more exposed than all of them as well
* His best win was off 138 and he has placed off 145
* He runs off 151 today and that's a career high mark
* It may be too much as he has never won before January
* We know horses running this year won 7 races
* We know they are 0-59 when absent 18 + days
* CONQUISTO fails that. It doesn't bother me with him
* CONQUISTO is 8 and has 8 Chase
* That looks a good profile to me with a recent run
* All ran within 17 days but 21 days is easily forgivable
* Hard race last time far from certain he can overcome that
* CONQUISTO has flaws in other areas
* He has never ran at Cheltenham before
* That worries me as he is only a small horse
* I won't bet a small horse here if I can help it
* CARRICKBOY didn't do enough last time
* Horses aged 8 had a 3-62 record
* The 8 year old winners were rated 150 137 146
* All 3 winners aged 8 ran within 2 weeks
* They were either 1st or 2nd last time out
* They also had 7-8-10 previous Chase runs
* Seasonal debutants aged 8 have struggled
* In the last 16 renewals they were 0-29
* The last 8yo to win first time out was in before 1988
* CHAMPION COURT is an 8yo seasonal debutant
* Without one winning in over 25 years it worries me
* His best form is certainly good enough to win
* I don't like the fact none like him have won before
* He has no relevant big field experience either
* He could break the 8yo statistic. Good luck to him if so
* I don't see enough in him to ignore that angles
* BATTLE GROUP is an 8yo absent 189 days
* Semantics to argue if he is a seasonal debutant or not
* Either way no 8yo won this with any kind of absence
* The last 8yo to win first time out was before 1988
* He has had several different trainers in recent years
* Now with a new trainer who has trained only 2 winners
* I don't like either of those two factors in a race like this
* He has a career high mark to overcome
* He has 3 Aintree wins but is 0-7 at Cheltenham
* This doesn't look his best track or distance
* He's never won at this time of year before
* Too much against him for a smaller new stable
* TAP NIGHT is 6 and ran recently
* He has more runs than any 6yo winners
* He has 10lbs higher handicap mark as well
* TAP NIGHT doesn't look the right 6yo
* KUMBESHWAR is also the wrong type of 6yo
* No 6yo won this with more than 5 Chase runs
* KUMBESHWAR has 14 runs and vulnerable here
* EASTER METEOR is impossible to fancy
* No 7yo won having been beaten in a recent run
* ASTRACAD fails that aged 7 losing last time
* He's a bit more exposed than I'd like over fences
* He failed every time he raced in Listed/Graded class
* He is also a small horse best seen in a small field
* NADIYA DE LA VEGA - This mare was 3rd last year
* She has a lower weight today
* She doesn't have a recent run though this year
* Statistically as a 7yo mare I can't match her
* Not keen on her form beyond 2m 4f
* Defeats by 38 20 15 15 lengths and a Fell and Pulled Up
* Must be a chance she doesn't stay this far
* Before last years race her trainer was concerned about it
* She's ran a few cracks at 2m 5f already
* Wouldn't be my 1st choice on stamina grounds
Shortlist
RAJDHANI EXPRESS
BALLYNAGOUR
COLOUR SQUADRON
* RAJDHANI EXPRESS is 6 and rated 155
* The 3 winners aged 6 were rated 136 138 139
* He is a lot higher in the handicap which is a worry
* His Cheltenham win last March was remarkable
* He has paid for it with his official rating today
* I still wouldn't rule him out though
* I just prefer the 7 year olds
* BALLYNAGOUR is a 7yo debutant
* I don't have a big problem with his profile
* He looks best Fresh having burst blood vessels before
* He won at Warwick last year off 123
* Backed like a certainty that day he won 19 lengths
* I don't think you can say 143 handicaps him out of it
* Has to prove himself on the track and the ground
* I have no strong angles against him
* COLOUR SQUADRON is a 7yo seasonal debutant
* I can live with 4 Chase starts much as I'd prefer 5
* The biggest worry is he hasn't won a Chase before
* His Saddle slipped on his first Chase run when 2nd
* I Don't think the trip suited at Newbury
* He didn't like going right handed at Exeter after that
* I said last year it looked like a quiet ride at Exeter
* I thought he had a ton in hand that day
* His 4th run was Topweight at Cheltenhams Festival
* Not beaten far that was very creditable
* He gave the winner Rajdhani Express weight then
* Now he is considerably better off today
* He has never ran with less than 11st weight before
* Today he has 12lbs less than he's ever carried
* I like him but I Can't pretend his profile is ideal
* You can argue he is not a natural chaser
* His price and low weight push me over the line
Selection
COLOUR SQUADRON 12/1 Win Bet
BALLYNAGOUR 8/1 Win Bet
C h e l t e n h a m 3.00
11/2 Silver Eagle, 6/1 Edmund Kean
7/1 Southfield Theatre, 10/1 Close House, 10/1 Lamb Or Cod
12/1 Araldur, 12/1 Monetary Fund, 12/1 Victrix Gale
14/1 Gauvain, 14/1 Return Spring, 14/1 Salubrious
14/1 Sunnyhillboy, 16/1 Bally Legend, 16/1 Cross Kennon
16/1 Greyfriars Drummer, 20/1 Pineau De Re
20/1 Recession Proof, 33/1 Cinevator
40/1 Red Not Blue.
* This is a Listed Class handicap hurdle over 25f +
* This is a Lightweights race
* Look at the official ratings of the recent winners
* 126 126 130 132 144 137 127 137 126 127 133 126
* Horses with official ratings of 138 or more are 1-42
* SALUBRIOUS doesn't appeal rated 149
* Recently seasonal debutants struggled in this
* They are 3-52 since 1997 and all 3 had low weights
* SALUBRIOUS doesn't match that and is out
* CLOSE HOUSE is wrong first time out off 141
* If he was fancied he'd be a third of the price
* ARALDUR runs off 141 which is higher than ideal
* He comes from a 2m 4f hurdle as well
* No past winners did that
* BALLY LEGEND - Don't see him winning off 139
* SOUTHFIELD THEATRE has a 140 rating
* Thats a couple of lbs more than I wanted
* He has at least been out and won
* SOUTHFIELD THEATRE is a 5yo
* Horses aged 5 have a 2-30 record in this
* Both were seasonal debutants
* Both came from Aintree or Cheltenham
* Both had 10st 6lbs or less
* SOUTHFIELD THEATRE doesn't match that
* He doesn't match any of the above
* I can't justify going with him
* Horses aged 10 or more are 0-21 in this race
* PINEAU DE RE fails this and I hate the absence
* SUNNYHILLBOY is out as a 10yo debutant
* RED NOT BLUE is too old
* GAUVAIN has to go as an 11yo
* I looked at Handicap Hurdles in November
* Those at 3m or more in Class 3 or higher
* Horses aged 11 or more have a 0-55 record
* GAUVAIN looks too old
* VICTRIX GALE ran over fences yesterday
* Not a safe profile and she looks badly treated
* CINEVATOR didn't do enough last time
* No past winners came from 2m 4f hurdles or less
* LAMB OR COD fails that. It weakens his profile
Possibles
* EDMUND KEAN also comes from 2m 4f
* It's less important as he is a seasonal debutant
* Still no horse has managed that yet
* EDMUND KEAN comes from a Novice Handicap Hurdle
* 5 winners came from Handicaps last season
* None though from a Novice Handicap like him
* He's obviously talented and fancied
* No winners were like him though
* RETURN SPRING - Not unlike the 2003 winner
* Not perfect though and not really looking for a debutant
* 7 of the last 9 winners had a recent run
* He doesn't and he is his stables 2nd string
* RECESSION PROOF - I cant rule him out
* Hard to read and I don't see much I like
* Not sure if he is fit
* Not sure if he retains his ability
* Not sure if he stays. His sire hasn't bred one this far
Shortlist
* SILVER EAGLE is a 5yo
* Horses aged 5 have a 2-30 record in this
* Both were seasonal debutants
* Both came from Aintree or Cheltenham
* Both had 10st 6lbs or less
* SILVER EAGLE doesn't match those angles
* He does have 3 runs this season
* That makes me see him in a different light
* CROSS KENNON is a 9yo running off 139
* Thats higher than almost all past winners
* The 4 winners aged 9 all had 10st 8lbs or less
* He has 8lbs more and looks badly handicapped
* That said he won this in 2010
* Last year he was beaten a Neck in this race
* With just a bit more weight he can't be ruled out
* Not with a stable in form and good race history
* MONETARY FUND - 26 hurdle runs
* That's far too exposed for this race
* That said 3 runs this year the last 19 days ago
* The 2001 winner also 7 and ran 10 days before
* That fitness edge will stand him in good stead
* Don't forget he was 3rd in last years race
Selection
MONETARY FUND 20/1 Each Way
CROSS KENNON 16/1 Each Way
I could and maybe should have saved on
Silver Eagle but two each way bets and a
saver is stretching credibility a bit so I wont.
Go back to last years race
Goulanes won off a mark of 126
He was very lightly raced
We now know he was very well handicapped
If he had not run in that race
Then look who would have been 1st and 2nd
CROSS KENNON and MONETARY FUND
My theory is betting both each way
Means one just needs to place to return a profit
Either could win as well
C h e l t e n h a m 3.35
9/4 Timesremembered, 4/1 Port Melon
6/1 Indevan, 7/1 Creepy, 7/1 Toubeera
8/1 Rally, 14/1 Drop Out Joe, 14/1 Pure Science.
* This is a Novice Hurdle over 2m 5f
* PORT MELON is unraced with no hurdle/bumper runs
* Horses in this race with that profile were 0-34
* PORT MELON should be opposed
* I looked at horses from ordinary Novice Hurdles
* Almost all won last time out
* None were beaten 2 or more lengths
* All 54 that tried were beaten
* PURE SCIENCE didn't do enough last time
* CREEPY didn't do enough last time
* None like him dropped from 3m 1f or more
* TOUBEERA is a mare and none have won
* 15 of the last 16 winners ran within 32 days
* TOUBEERA absent 182 days has to go
* Horses aged 4 have won 3 races
* Those without Graded form won 2 races
* Neither came from 2m 4f or shorter
* RALLY fails that and I'd rather have a 5yo
* The last 7 winners were 5 year olds
* DROP OUT JOE is 5 but comes from Carlisle
* I wanted more substantial form here
Shortlist
* TIMESREMEMBERED is 5 from a Graded Hurdle
* INDEVAN is 5 from a Graded Hurdle
* Both come from at least a 2m 4f race
* There were 3 horses in this race with this profile
* They finished W 3 W
* The 2006 and 2011 winners had this profile
* INDEVAN and TIMESREMEMBERED are positives
* INDEVAN may not have stayed last time out
* He has the best 2 Racing Post Ratings
* He did the best last time out when maybe didn't stay
* He looks the value back in trip on good ground
Selection
INDEVAN 7/1 Win Bet
TIMESREMEMBERED 9/4 Saver
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Best Wishes
Guy Ward
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk
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