Mathematician 1722
T o d a y s B e t
1 Bet Today
Wetherby 3.00
MEDINAS 11/4 +
Win Bet
I am going with Medinas today from a few options.
There's a case for a saver bet on Trustan Times 3/1.
If you stake £10 and have £7.50 on Medinas 3/1 and
the remaining £2.50 on Trustan Times it means you
are getting 2/1 about MEDINAS winning with money
back if the saver wins. That does appeal. I don't like
messy staking though and I leave that as optional.
I am going with a win bet instead. Tidal Bay might
win of course but there are some arguments later
that put his chance in perspective. Difficult to make
a rushed decision with an earlier message time as
the clocks have gone back. I like the message but
it is Saturday and trying to find the best bet from a
huge message isn't easy and an unnecessary evil.
* Sunday Message Tomorrow
Message Content
Heavy duty Saturday again with several previews.
I never advise following these Saturday messages
as it's the hardest day of the week and I do tend to
cover more races than I should do. The strike rate
is bound to be lower on Saturdays so go carefully.
Breeders Cup tonight. Not a statistical meeting at
all as they change locations. I have 2 opinions at
the end of the message but if I had a bet it would
be arrogant as I do not know nearly enough here.
The message starts very slowly with Newmarket's
maidens. Don't expect anything worth betting here.
BETS I LIKE BEST FROM THE MESSAGE
Ascot 1.00 - HAND ON BACH 8/1 Win Bet
Ascot 1.00 - LETEMGO 7/1 Saver Bet
One of the harder races but my angles are clear
and we do have a good record in this handicap.
Ayr 1.25 - AMORE MIO 5/1 Win Bet
Ayr 1.25 - PLUS JAMAIS 6/1 Saver
May just be too competitive but I liked the race
and think I have solid chances with these two.
Wetherby 3.00 - MEDINAS 3/1 Win Bet
Wetherby 3.00 - TRUSTAN TIMES 3/1 Optional Saver
Two really interesting profiles against a 12yo favourite
Y e s t e r d a y s R e v i e w
I went with a no bet day yesterday with nothing
as safe as I wanted. There isn't much to report.
I mentioned three horses with 1 winning at 11/4
and two losing which all cancel each other out.
Pleased both of the Sires and System negatives
lost as that column has started so encouragingly.
The message ended up L W L L P L W and not
a lot in it either way. It felt like a score draw on
the day but we were so close with Silver Wren
each way second at 12/1 I think we nicked it.
S I R E S AND S Y S T E M S
Today's Sire
AND BEYOND
* Horses sired by And Beyond
* Racing on Good-Soft, Soft or Heavy
* They have a 0-93 record on softer than good
* Ayr 4.15 - Macgillycuddy is by this sire
You don't hear much about him and today is
not going to make us rich but the one runner
he has today is likely to struggle as he wont
like it soft. Being a Saturday I didn't get the
chance to look closer at much else here. Its
worth keeping an eye on this sire on soft.
P R O F I L E S & P R EV I E W S
Newmarket 12.10
Little interest in this fillies maiden over 7f without
any real evidence. Many unraced horses win this
race. MAKRUMA wouldn't be my first choice. I do
not want to trust trainer John Hills in a maiden on
a Grade 1 track absent 81 days. Maybe follow the
market. ANGELIC AIR and EXCELLENT VIEW look
obvious. Maybe a place bet on a fancied unraced
horse is the best option but I'm skipping this one.
No Selection
Newmarket 12.40
* This is a fillies maiden over 7f
* There is not enough evidence to bother with it
* MISS LILLIE comes from a Group race
* There is no statistical advantage in that
* 150 similar races and just 1 horse did it with 2 runs
* What bothers me more is 4 runs absent 70 days
* Only 8 of the 150 winners had 4 or more runs
* They had absences of 46 11 23 15 35 19 18 42 days
* MISS LILLIE does not fit that and is not for me
* You can only take a guess in these races
* INHERITANCE is a May Foal and I don't want her
* Like Division one at 12.10 split stakes look best
* I'd choose a win and place bet from fancied unraced
* EASTERN BELLE Win TRUE MATCH place is an option
* You can only guess anyway in these races
W e t h e r b y 12.45
Evs Mendip Express, 7/4 Sixty Something
13/2 Bracken House, 12/1 Royal Sam, 25/1 Attycran
25/1 Grey Shadow.
This is a 3m 1f Novice Chase that's dominated by two
horses. MENDIP EXPRESS is a chasing debutant and
has only ran the once over hurdles before. In contrast
SIXTY SOMETHING has plenty of experience and is also
a first time out chaser. Obviously who jumps best may
win. In terms of their profiles I don't see much in it so
it should be close. In terms of trainers then I would be
happier with MENDIP EXPRESS as I don't like relying
on Paul Webber who trains SIXTY SOMETHING. This
can only take a guess but mine is SIXTY SOMETHING.
The reason I go for him is Stamina. MENDIP EXPRESS
is sired by King's Threatre. If we look at all his runners
on soft ground at 3m 1f or more only The Minack won
from plenty that tried. I feel SIXTY SOMETHING might
have more guaranteed stamina and the extra hurdle
experience could help too. I marginally prefer him.
Selection
SIXTY SOMETHING 11/10
Win Bet
A y r 12.55
7/4 Apollo Eleven, 4/1 Hallmark Star, 11/2 Frankie´s Promise
8/1 Redpender, 10/1 Scorpions Sting, 14/1 Final Assault
16/1 On The Buckle, 20/1 Dunkirk´s First, 20/1 Molly Milan
33/1 Brighton Road, 33/1 Military Call, 33/1 Silverton
40/1 Danehills Well, 50/1 Inniscastle Boy, 66/1 Spring Over
100/1 Finaghy Ayr, 100/1 Knockcairn, 100/1 Tim´s Approach.
* This is a 2m Maiden Hurdle
* REDPENDER is one of the weaker profiles
* Horses from maiden hurdles over 2m 4f or more
* Running within the last 3 months
* Horses with this profile were 0-36
* REDPENDER fails this
* SCORPIONS STING is 4 from a bumper last year
* 4yo's beaten in that bumper with 2 + NHF runs are 0-20
* SCORPIONS STING could go well but isn't quite right
* FRANKIE´S PROMISE unseated rider on his seasonal debut
* I looked at all horses falling or doing that
* There was a 0-24 record but most were not fancied
* FRANKIE´S PROMISE is a neutral profile
* He does bring plenty of promise from a bumper career
* HALLMARK STAR comes from a handicap
* Only 1 horse aged 4 did that and ran better last time
* He has an average profile
* APOLLO ELEVEN also has an average profile
* He gets credit for coming from Cheltenham last time
* FINAL ASSAULT is 4 from a recent Bumper
* There were 3 horses with similar profiles under 20/1
* They finished 2nd 3rd 4th
* FINAL ASSAULT can't be ruled out and could nick it
* You can only guess here
Selection
FINAL ASSAULT 9/1
Each Way
A s c o t 1.00
6/1 Letemgo, 7/1 Ballybach, 8/1 The Road Ahead
8/1 Vedani, 8/1 Waldorf Salad, 10/1 Hand On Bach
10/1 Ourmanmassini, 10/1 Sedgemoor Express
12/1 Agincourt Reef, 12/1 Willow´s Saviour
14/1 Minellaforlunch, 16/1 Coup De Grace
16/1 Kalmbeforethestorm, 20/1 Dance Floor King
20/1 Sterling Gent, 20/1 Was My Valentine.
* This is a Novices´ Handicap Hurdle short of 2m 4f
* On the face of it it looks impossible
* Just a quick look at what has been winning this
* Past winners had the following National hunt runs
* 10 5 8 6 7 3 11 9 9 6
* Past winners had the following Hurdle runs
* 6 3 4 6 3 3 9 9 9 5
* Past winners had the following runs this season
* 3 0 2 4 0 2 2 0 2 0
* I looked at horses with absences
* They were all 5 and 6 year olds managing this
* I would avoid 4 year olds with absences
* AGINCOURT REEF fails this
* VEDANI doesn't appeal as a 4yo with a break
* No horse with an absence won aged 7 or more
* BALLYBACH is 9 and absent 1035 days
* Fancied in market but I'd want something safer
* If you ran recently you want a good last run
* No horse won beaten 12 + lengths in a recent run
* MINELLAFORLUNCH didn't do enough last time
* KALMBEFORETHESTORM didn't do enough last time
* COUP DE GRACE - Don't want a 4yo well beaten over 2m
* I looked at horses with absences
* When they came from Novice or Maiden Hurdles
* There was a disappointing 2-34 record with these types
* Both winners were 5 year olds and had 3 Hurdle runs
* I would avoid the following not close enough to this
* WAS MY VALENTINE - Wrong kind from maiden hurdle
* WALDORF SALAD - Nothing wrong with his profile
* The stable are so out of form though
* you couldn't trust them to produce him fit
* WILLOW´S SAVIOUR is a seasonal debutant
* He comes from a Novice Handicap hurdle
* All 13 horses with that profile lost in this race
* SEDGEMOOR EXPRESS has a recent run
* Two winners had that profile
* Both were much lighter raced though
* SEDGEMOOR EXPRESS is the most exposed hurdler
* That stops me shortlisting him
* OURMANMASSINI is a 5yo seasonal debutant
* He comes from a handicap hurdle
* The 2005 winner had this profile albeit with more runs
* He's probably shortlistable but 3 come out better
Shortlist
* DANCE FLOOR KING is a 6yo seasonal debutant
* He comes from a handicap hurdle
* Two horses had this profile finishing 1st and 2nd
* They had more hurdle starts though
* DANCE FLOOR KING is close enough to respect
* HAND ON BACH has a similar but better profile
* He is much more like the 2005 winner
* LETEMGO is from a recent Novice Handicap
* Male horses aged 5 doing this were 2-5
* Both winners had 4 and 6 runs
* LETEMGO has 4 runs and looks solid enough
Selection
HAND ON BACH 8/1 Win Bet
LETEMGO 7/1 Saver Bet
N e w m a r k e t 1.10
1/2 Hartnell, 9/4 Montaly, 12/1 Automated
14/1 Samtu, 100/1 Plucky Dip.
This is a small field 2yo conditions race over 10f.
The Class of the race has switched dramatically
in recent years so we are not safe here. No doubt
that HARTNELL should win it on form but strange
things can happen when 2yo's move to these sort
of distances. I just wondered whether there is the
case for MONTALY each way. Much depends how
they bet and there are only two places but there
is a case for this bet if all 5 run. AUTOMATED the
3rd favourite has a weaker profile from a 7f race.
You would expect MONTALY to improve over 10f
being by Yeats. The favourite has had a run only
8 days ago and its not impossible he could throw
in a bad one. HARTNELL should win this race but
MONTALY should go well each way at better odds.
Selection
MONTALY Each Way
(Only if 3/1 + and if all 5 run)
W e t h e r b y 1.15
11/8 Gone Too Far, 7/2 Gassin Golf, 5/1 Varom
15/2 Lemony Bay, 14/1 Satanic Beat
16/1 Rock A Doodle Doo, 25/1 Narcissist
40/1 Next Hight, 50/1 Light The City
100/1 Durham Express.
* This is a 2m Novice Hurdle
* GASSIN GOLF comes from a recent 4yo hurdle
* He was beaten in that race against his own age group
* Unusual profile. I found only 1 horse with it
* That horse started 9/4 and finished 4th
* GASSIN GOLF doesn't stand out to me
* The other 3 are Bumper debutants
* VAROM wouldn't be my first choice
* I cant match him from a 3yo only bumper
Shortlist
* GONE TOO FAR has a strong profile
* I found 5 winners with his profile
* LEMONY BAY is 4 from a Bumper last May
* He won last time and has 2 Bumper starts
* Similar profiles had a 9 2 W W 7 W record
* LEMONY BAY has a strong 3-6 profile
* One of these winners won this race in 2011
* He had a very similar profile
* GONE TOO FAR -I think he will win this race
* One problem with making him the selection
* He is odds on and I have a good profile alternative
* How annoyed would I be if LEMONY BAY beat him
* Because of that I am suggesting a split stake
Selection
GONE TOO FAR 4/5 Win Bet
LEMONY BAY 6/4 Place Bet
A y r 1.25
7/2 Daasij, 4/1 Hartforth, 9/2 Amore Mio
8/1 Solway Sam, 10/1 Almutaham, 10/1 Lady Of Verona
10/1 Plus Jamais, 12/1 Auberge, The Flaming Matron
16/1 Aggie´s Lad.
This is a 3m Handicap Hurdle. Scrappy race and
a bit too low grade to be involved with. I wanted
to avoid AUBERGE as she is an older mare going
up in trip and THE FLAMING MATRON as a female
first time out with little experience. If you look at
seasonal debutants aged 11 or more we find that
all 39 were beaten suggesting AGGIE´S LAD may
be best avoided. Plenty of strength in depth that
can't be fully accounted for. HARTFORTH won on
his last start. He is a 5 year old and when he won
he had AMORE MIO who started favourite in that
race back in 3rd. I ran HARTFORTH's profile and
the only 5yo winners that followed up a win had
more runs that season. I would also be worried
about softer ground for him. He has dodged this
most of his career and his sire hasn't had a 3m
winner on bad ground before. AMORE MIO had
the safer profile of the two and I liked him more.
LADY OF VERONA may want another run as she
didn't achieve much last time. SOLWAY SAM is
not reliable enough. DAASIJ is an 8yo debutant
with topweight. I think there are safer profiles
but it's impossible to fully rule him out.
Shortlist
* AMORE MIO - I'd give him every chance
* PLUS JAMAIS is 6 from a maiden hurdle last year
* Similar 6yo's with 3 hurdle runs are 2-3
* PLUS JAMAIS has a very nice profile
* It's anyone's guess if he can stay this 3m trip
Selection
AMORE MIO 5/1 Each Way
PLUS JAMAIS 6/1 Saver
A s c o t 1.35
5/2 Up To Something, 11/2 Lyvius, 6/1 Persian Snow
13/2 Ivor´s King, 7/1 Le Bacardy, 7/1 Orzare
8/1 Thunderstorm, 12/1 Minella Definitely,
* This is a Novice Handicap Chase over 2m 3f
* New race. No past renewals. Just 21 similar races
* Not much I can say here
* UP TO SOMETHING is 5 and won last time
* He comes from a 2m Novice Handicap Chase
* In 21 races horses doing this were 0-5
* I looked at horses from recent 2m races
* There was a 2-18 record with these horses
* Both were 8 year olds with just 1 Chase run
* UP TO SOMETHING doesn't offer me enough
* THUNDERSTORM is a seasonal debutant
* He comes from a Handicap Hurdle
* Horses with this profile were 4-16
* They were aged 6 or 7 and had 4 4 4 6 hurdle starts
* THUNDERSTORM is 8 and has 10 hurdle starts
* Not a close enough match to interest me
* LE BACARDY has a weak profile
* LYVIUS - Cant rule him out
* I'd rather not have a 5yo seasonal debutant
Shortlist
* MINELLA DEFINITELY - Outsider with a chance
* PERSIAN SNOW comes from a Handicap Hurdle
* He is the right age doing this
* He's a bit more exposed than ideal but not too bad
* IVOR´S KING has 2 recent runs
* Comes from a Novice Handicap Chase
* With 2 Chase starts that's a reasonable profile
Selection
IVOR´S KING 7/1 Each Way
PERSIAN SNOW 8/1 Saver Bet
N e w m a r k e t 1.45
3/1 Surcingle, 9/2 Majeyda, 6/1 Remember
8/1 Adhwaa, 9/1 Rosehill Artist, 10/1 Island Remede
10/1 Thewandaofu, 12/1 Stealth Missile, 12/1 Top Dollar
14/1 Stosur, 16/1 Amaseena, 20/1 Mutatis Mutandis
33/1 Crown Pleasure, 33/1 Les Gar Gan
66/1 Evacusafe Lady.
* The Montrose Stakes is a 2yo fillies Listed race over 8f
* There are 14 past renewals of this race
* Last years winner broke 3 trends
* He was the first with 5 or more starts
* He was the first from a Nursery to win
* He was the first with a recent run to win
* I think she outstayed them in bad ground
* This is a race of shocks so anything goes
* EVACUSAFE LADY is too exposed
* STOSUR doesn't come out well
* I doubt her stamina as well
* CROWN PLEASURE looks unlikely to be good enough
* THEWANDAOFU comes from a 7f Group 2
* With 6 runs She isn't like a typical winner
* No winner of this race had ever ran in a Group race
* TOP DOLLAR was impressive last time
* It was only a Class 5 Nursery though
* She is too far up in class for me
* MUTATIS MUTANDIS just lost in a Class 4 handicap
* Thats unlikely to be good enough
* LES GAR GAN finished unplaced in a recent nursery
* She looks out of her depth here
* ISLAND REMEDE won a Class 4 Nursery last time
* Thats not enough for me especially on past form
* She was beaten in 3 x Class 5-6 nurseries before that
* STEALTH MISSILE comes from a Group race
* We know no past winner had form in that Class
* She didn't run well enough last time
Possibles
* MAJEYDA takes a big drop in class
* She comes from the Prix Marcel Boussac
* We know no winners came from Group races
* I can overlook that as it was a Group 1
* MAJEYDA a Listed race penalty though
* No horse has tried to win with the penalty
* MAJEYDA might want faster ground as well
* ADHWAA 's problem is 5 runs and 56 days absence
* Only 1 of the 14 winners had 5 or more runs
* None with 4 or more runs had that sort of absence
* She's been highly tried but it's never mattered before
* No winner of this race had ever ran in a Group race
* ROSEHILL ARTIST comes from a 7f conditions race
* I looked at all horses from conditions races
* All 17 that tried lost so she isn't like any winners
* SURCINGLE won an 8f maiden on her only start
* The 2007 and 2008 winners had that profile
* They both ran within the past month though
* SURCINGLE has been off the track 54 days
* Only 2 winners were absent 50 + days both had 2 runs
* SURCINGLE has 1 but I wouldn't rule her out on that
* She looks more of a saver than a bet to me
* REMEMBER comes from a 7f handicap
* So did last years winner so I respect her
* AMASEENA could run well at a big price
* Well regarded she could be underestimated
Selection
No real confidence but staking £10 I would try to
finish ahead with split stakes involving 3 horses.
SURCINGLE £3 Win 3/1 +
REMEMBER £3 Win 6/1
AMASEENA £2 Each Way 16/1 +
A s c o t 2.10
11/2 Fairy Rath, 13/2 Greywell Boy, 13/2 Ulck Du Lin
8/1 Avoca Promise, 8/1 King Edmund, 10/1 Filbert
10/1 My Brother Sylvest, 10/1 Notarfbad, 12/1 Drumshambo
14/1 Gus Macrae, 14/1 Temple Lord, 20/1 Consigliere
20/1 Dan Breen, 20/1 Lancetto, 33/1 Olympian Boy.
* This is a Listed Class Chase over 2m 1f
* There are 27 high class chases around 21f
* ULCK DU LIN is a nice prospect but only a 5yo
* Horses aged 5 won just 2 of the 27 races
* Neither had 11st or more weight
* Asking a lot for a 5yo to win this off 11st 12lbs
* CONSIGLIERE is an exposed 10yo debutant
* I don't like his first time out record
* He has a career high mark as well
* His wins come in fields of 3 5 5 4 6 10 7 8
* In fields of 11 or more he has a 0-20 record
* CONSIGLIERE has too much against him
* DRUMSHAMBO is a 7yo debutant
* No strong statistical objections
* His first time out record is poor though
* Far from certain he will be tuned up for this
* All 27 winners of similar races had 4 + chase starts
* FILBERT with 2 runs is rejected
* KING EDMUND wouldn't be my first choice
* Not sure he wants a big field like this
* MY BROTHER SYLVEST may want in faster
* I looked at horses from Novice Handicap Chases
* Seasonal debutants dong this were 0-6
* GREYWELL BOY has this profile
* The 6 losers finished 2 4 8 4 6 7 which isn't bad
* GREYWELL BOY could be a player here
* No horse ran recently from a Novice Handicap
* I would see these types as neutral
* AVOCA PROMISE has this neutral profile
* He only has 3 chase runs less than all similar winners
* NOTARFBAD also has this Neutral profile
* GUS MACRAE doesn't convince me
* TEMPLE LORD - Unsafe but wouldn't rule him out
* Not when fit and having a lightweight
* FAIRY RATH - I can see the argument for him
* Its valid but hardly persuasive in a race like this
* FAIRY RATH could be a possible saver
Selection
Nothing much grabs my attention here. I consider
FAIRY RATH as more saver than selection. I wont
be surprised if GREYWELL BOY runs well and he
could place something his profile suggests might
happen. I don't expect to get the winner but I do
like TEMPLE LORD's recent runs. He wouldnt like
it much softer but he has a chance. NOTARFBAD
shouldn't be underestimated either. I'm guessing.
NOTARFBAD 12/1 + Win Bet
TEMPLE LORD 12/1 + Win Bet
Newmarket 2.20
This 8f handicap is too much to do on a day like this
and It is too risky. If I was having a bet I would try to
oppose Credit Swap in a match bet or if forced to as
a place only lay. Too big to lay for win purposes but
an 8yo with 1 run this year leaves me cold. I'd like
to oppose him in a match bet ideally as laying him
place only with 4 runs is riskier. No other opinions.
A y r 2.35
11/8 Green Flag, 15/8 Sivola De Sivola
7/2 Streams Of Whiskey, 12/1 Pause And Clause
14/1 Scotswell.
* This is a 3m 1f Novice Handicap Chase
* Slight contrast in profiles here
* Some come down the Novice Handicap Route
* Some come down the Novice Chase route
* STREAMS OF WHISKEY is a 6yo
* He has just won a Novice Handicap Chase
* Average profile and no better. One winner did this
* He had 1 Chase start and dropped in distance
* STREAMS OF WHISKEY has 2 starts and is up in trip
* SIVOLA DE SIVOLA is a 7yo
* He has just won a Novice Handicap Chase
* One winner did that aged 7 and he had 1 Chase run
* SIVOLA DE SIVOLA has 3 Chase runs
* He's a positive but there is a better profile
* PAUSE AND CLAUSE is 8lbs wrong at the weights
* GREEN FLAG is 6 and won a Novice Chase last time
* He has 1 Chase start and a recent race
* 5 horses had profile finishing W 5th W PU W
* GREEN FLAG has the best profile
Selection
GREEN FLAG 11/8
Win Bet
A s c o t 2.45
5/1 Makari, 11/2 Pine Creek, 6/1 Court Minstrel
15/2 Gibb River, 8/1 Dildar, 8/1 Saphir Du Rheu
10/1 Shotavodka, 14/1 Chris Pea Green
14/1 Specialagent Alfie, 16/1 Dunraven Storm
16/1 Get Me Out Of Here, 16/1 Jumps Road
20/1 Rayvin Black.
This is a Listed Class Handicap hurdle over 2m.
I don't normally do this race as these races can
be unsafe. The class of the race has changed in
this and several other races many times and it
is a race that changes every couple of years. I
am just making these observations based on 41
similar pattern Handicap Hurdles around now.
* I don't want seasonal debutants aged 8 +
* GET ME OUT OF HERE - DUNRAVEN STORM fail that
* Horses aged 4 won 3 similar races
* None were first time out and all had Graded form
* CHRIS PEA GREEN is not safe aged 4 first time out
* RAYVIN BLACK - Don't want a 4yo without Graded form
* I looked at 6 year old seasonal debutants
* Those that came from Handicaps won 3 races
* They had 11 14 14 previous hurdle starts
* COURT MINSTREL only has 5 and doesn't fit well
* SPECIALAGENT ALFIE looks out of his depth
* GIBB RIVER has a massive 553 day absence
* 1 winner won aged 6 with similar break (Lingo)
* GIBB RIVER is older and it's asking a lot
* Horse and trainer more than capable but not for me
Possibles
* SHOTAVODKA - Can't rule him out but risky
* JUMPS ROAD - I don't mind his profile
* DILDAR - First time out could be the time to catch him
* PINE CREEK - Very similar profile to 2010 winner
* MAKARI - Tempted with 2 recent wins
* These were in much lower grades though
* I looked at all recent last time out winners
* Coming from Class 3 or lower grades
* There was a 0-14 record with this profile
* They finished 4 7 6 2 PU 3 6 2 2 11 4 2 11 3
* Look at those aged 6 in this record like Makari
* They finished 2nd 2nd 4th
* One of these was 2nd in this race in 2010
* MAKARI - My angles suggest a win is asking a lot
* They suggest a place is very possible
* Thats why I would go down the split stake route
Selection
DILDAR - Half your stake to Win at 8/1
MAKARI - Half your stake to Place at 6/4
W e t h e r b y 3.00
7/2 Tidal Bay, 11/2 Trustan Times, 15/2 Medinas
16/1 Across The Bay, 16/1 Captain Sunshine
25/1 The Knoxs.
* This is a Grade 2 Hurdle over 3m 1f
* We have 29 similar races in October and November
* TIDAL BAY is a 12yo seasonal debutant
* I've looked at every Graded Hurdle
* Thats any distance. Any Time of Year.
* This includes Grade 1-2-3 hurdle races anywhere
* I've looked at all Irish races for the past 5 years
* I've looked at every English race going back 22 years
* Only 1 horse aged 12 has won a similar race
* That was Captain Cee Bee this year in Ireland
* He didn't have anything to beat in that race
* No 12yo has done it in England before
* TIDAL BAY is trying to be the first
* I don't want to risk him at a short price
* Not with a profile as risky as that
* TRUSTAN TIMES is 7 years old
* He comes from a Graded Hurdle first time out
* He has 9 previous hurdle runs
* I looked at similar 7 year olds with 8-9-10 hurdle runs
* I found a highly encouraging 4-5 record
* The following horses finished W W W 2 W
* Marello won this race 1998 with the same profile
* Princeful won a similar Newbury race in 1998 with it
* Deano's Beeno won the same race 1999 with this profile
* Pettifour was 2nd in this race in 1999 with this profile
* Big Bucks also won in 2010 with the same profile
* TRUSTAN TIMES has a good profile
* Most of the above did come from Grade 1 hurdles though
* TRUSTAN TIMES only comes from Grade 2
* MEDINAS is a 6yo seasonal debutant
* Good profile and 3 similar winners
* Two of these had 11 hurdle runs like him
* I prefer MEDINAS here for 2 reasons
* He comes from a safer trial race
* His stable are in better form
* TRUSTAN TIMES could be a saver at 3/1
* It's a bit tight at 3/1 and 3/1 but arguably a good bet
Selection
MEDINAS 3/1 Win Bet
TRUSTAN TIMES 3/1 Optional Saver Bet
W e t h e r b y 3.35
5/4 Long Run, 7/2 Unioniste, 6/1 Benefficient
7/1 Cape Tribulation, 8/1 Harry Topper
20/1 Master Of The Hall, 33/1 Wayward Prince.
The Charlie Hall Chase has changed in recent
years with lighter raced horses doing far better
than they used to. There was a 13 year period
where the winner all had 11 + Chase runs and
most a lot more. The latest 3 winners had 5 6 8
chase runs and things have changed. Its a race
for seasonal debutants. WAYWARD PRINCE cant
be fancied on his last recent run. I couldn't bet
MASTER OF THE HALL after a miserable year
last season and having now downgraded from
Nicky Henderson to a small yard. I have issues
with BENEFFICIENT's stamina over 3m 1f when
racing in this class on this ground. I'm leaving
him out and feel one of the following will win.
* LONG RUN is the class horse but a short price
* He has lost on his last 3 seasonal debuts
* I wonder if LONG RUN is better over shorter
* He has won just once over 3m 1f or more
* That was in the 2011 Cheltenham Gold Cup
* That looks a soft race to me
* His 3 main rivals that day had huge problems
* Kauto Star and Deman were 11 and past their best
* His only other danger wasn't fit either
* It was good ground and I'm not sure he stays
* Likely to need a run the finish could catch him out
* CAPE TRIBULATION certainly has the ability
* First time out with a Grade 2 penalty wont be easy
* This isn't a big horse to be giving weight away
* He will like the small field though
* I think he has to be shortlisted
* He does face some lesser exposed younger types
* UNIONISTE is a 5yo which is a worry
* Their record is not as bad as it looks though
* Only 3 horses aged 5 has tried to win this
* Turko 9/1 lasted once fence and went lame
* Neptune Collonges was 2nd as a 5yo in 2006
* Sleeping Night was 2nd as a 5yo in 2001 at 33/1
* Horses aged 5 are 2nd PU 2nd which isn't bad
* You can argue he is under priced and too short
* His age and official rating do suggest that
* I'm not prepared to rule out a 5yo anymore
* This horse won a Cheltenham Handicap Chase aged 4
* No horse had done that before until he did it
* HARRY TOPPER has not convinced me yet
* Go back to last years Cheltenham Festival
* Long Run and Cape Tribulation were in the Gold Cup
* They were 3rd and 5th and ran well
* Unioniste was 4th in the RSA Chase
* Benefficient was winning the Jewson
* HARRY TOPPER was at Kelso in a Listed Chase
* He has proven far less than some
* HARRY TOPPER has raced in 5 Chases now
* He is actually less experienced than that
* In one Chase he Unseated rider after 9 fences
* In another he was brought down at the 5th
* He has less chasing experience than any past winner
Selection
I'm far from certain to be right here and the
people that criticise UNIONISTE's chance do
have sensible arguments. Whatever I went
for I would have something I didn't like and
I am taking a chance on UNIONISTE to win.
A s c o t 3.50
13/8 Beachfire, 5/2 No No Mac, 11/4 Zamdy Man
8/1 Couldhavehaditall, 25/1 Mount Odell
25/1 Uramazin, 33/1 Moratab.
* This is a 2m Novice Hurdle
* BEACHFIRE is 6 from a 2m 5f novice hurdle
* I opposed him last time over 2m 5f
* His sire is 0-25 racing over 18f or more
* I Didn't think he would stay last time out
* Ran well in second and should go well
* Three horses had identical profiles to him
* They finished 5th 1st 3rd
* ZAMDY MAN is 4 and comes from a Grade 1
* Horses with his profile were 1-9
* That winner had far fewer runs though
* ZAMDY MAN with 5 runs has an average profile
* NO NO MAC - No problems with his profile
* BEACHFIRE is the class horse in the race
* There are more orthodox profiles
* I think his numbers are enough to win
* BEACHFIRE and NO NO MAC are similar prices
* Both are fighting for favouritism
* Racing post ratings steer me BEACHFIRE's way
Selection
BEACHFIRE 7/4
Win Bet
W e t h e r b y 4.05
5/2 More Of That, 7/2 Ardlui, 5/1 Twelve Roses
15/2 Pas Trop Tard, 8/1 Cloudy Bob,
12/1 Rock Relief, 12/1 Vasco D´ycy, 16/1 Northern Oscar
20/1 Great Value, 20/1 Mr Crystal.
* This is a 2m 4f handicap Hurdle
* MORE OF THAT has ran once over hurdles before
* That was in a maiden hurdle last year
* Obviously promising it's not a safe profile
* It would surprise me if he were to win
* I would much rather bet something else
* TWELVE ROSES is an each way option
* CLOUDY BOB is an each way option
* ARDLUI also has strong claims and enough ability
* Not easy to predict ARDLUI or how fit he will be
* Has an unorthodox career and may win a big race soon
* I won't risk any of these each way
* I'd rather bet two against a once raced favourite
Selection
ARDLUI 7/2 Win Bet
TWELVE ROSES 4/1 Saver Bet
B r e e d e r s C u p
Santa Anita 7.43
* I would avoid the 3 year olds in this
* DANK clearly has a huge chance
* Not keen on her draw or absence or price
* ROMANTICA would be my preference
Santa Anita 10.22
* The 2nd and 3rd favourites have long absences
* I'd rather avoid them and play the race this way
* THE FUGUE - Saver Bet 2/1
* BIG BLUE KITTEN - Win Bet 7/1
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