Mathematician 1756
1 Bet Today
Cheltenham 1.15
ASTRACAD 8/1
Each Way
8/1 Corals Stan J Ladbrokes PPower
8/1 Sportingbet Boyles Skybet
15/2 Hills
M e s s a g e C o n t e n t
This Saturday there are only 9 previews which
is partly down to Lingfield's rubbish card and a
few smaller field Cheltenham races not worth
bothering with. I have been in the zone in the
past few days with 3/3 winning account bets
at 12/1 2/1 7/2. Lets hope it's not too ambitious
to have another winner today. Whilst the bets
have been winning the messages were not as
good as I would like. Overall they have been
no better than average and felt a bit laboured
which isn't a big surprise given the focus has
been account as it is doing so well. I don't see
many fireworks today. It feels more solid than
spectacular and the main focus is the account.
M e s s a g e H i g h l i g h t s
Most days there seems to be an unpalatable
bet that I really fancy each way that I do not
want to stake. It's usually because the price
is short and it has a too good to be true feel.
The candidate for this sort of bet today must
be Zarkandar in the 3pm Cheltenham. Only
7 runners but 5/2-11/4 each way looks really
inviting. One of those I do not mind betting
myself but don't want to inflict it on you all.
Southwell 12.05
GEORGE BENJAMIN 7/4
Win Bet
I do like this bet. His best numbers point to
him winning it. If course and distance form
counts he should win as he has a stand out
number miles in advance of anything else.
My only reservation is the short price given
the size of the field. I think he should win.
Cheltenham 1.15
ASTRACAD 8/1
Each Way
Statistically this race is safe as it is short
in distance and high in class and I have
a few negatives in the race. I have often
opposed this horse in large fields which
don't suit him. I think it's the first time in
his career that I have selected him. The
only worry for me is whether he wants a
bit further on this ground but he has won
the race before when the going stick was
much as it is today. I think he can win it.
Could be a bit of pushing our luck today
but I didn't want to go with a short price
today and I think he really is overpriced.
S i r e s A n d S y s t e m s
No Column today
I could have forced something out but not
much point opposing a big priced horse so
I am leaving it alone today with no column.
What I will say is that today almost by pure
accident I came across an unbelievable bit
of data about a trainers record. I can't say
what I found today as I haven't had time to
think about it and double check results but
I will put this in tomorrow's message. I am
not a Trainer trend man at all but this blew
me away. I will explain what I mean in the
Sunday Message as there is far more time.
F r i d a y s R e v i e w
I am in a rich vein of form at the moment as we
landed another account bet win yesterday with
DANEGLOW who won well at 7/2. Advised at 5/1
there was a small Rule 4 so everyone will have
got at least 7/2. Confidence is sky high and that
has put the account in one very healthy position.
I won't work it out until the 22nd when I next get
a day off but I feel this years profit could be big.
P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S
S o u t h w e l l 12.05
7/4 George Benjamin, 7/2 Munaawib
10/1 Seamster, 12/1 Angel Grigio 12/1 Frosted Off
12/1 Mucky Molly, 12/1 Rutterkin
12/1 Storey Hill, 12/1 Strategic Action, 14/1 Lincolnrose
20/1 Ishiamiracle, 25/1 Mon Chic
* This is a 7f handicap for 0-55 rated horses
* Dreadful quality race I am trying to narrow down
* I will start with the Draw
* Recent handicaps with 11 + runners went to these stalls
* 9 11 3 72 14 9 8 13 10 4 13 5 4
* 3 12 4 11 7 9 10 14 12 9 10 7 10 8
* Only 1 of the last 32 races went to a horse drawn 1 or 2
* Horses aged 3 beaten 10 + Lengths last time
* When running within 3 weeks they are 1-66
* That winner was a filly a 50/1 shock (Bold Rose)
* MON CHIC fails this and didn't do enough last time
* ANGEL GRIGIO has the same problem
* LINCOLNROSE was also well beaten last time
* Better chance but the worst of the draw so is out
* RUTTERKIN is wrong from 5f with an absence
* ISHIAMIRACLE comes out badly as a filly
* None like her lost by so far up in distance
* SEAMSTER - I needed better recent runs
* STOREY HILL - I felt the same way
* FROSTED OFF is 3 and down from 8f over a month ago
* Similar 3 year olds with 13 + runs are 1-12
* FROSTED OFF is like 1 winner but Stall 2 isn't ideal
* STRATEGIC ACTION has a solid profile
* His problem is he has no Fibresand form
* I looked at Racing Post Ratings
* Since 2012 over this 7f trip at Southwell
* These were the highest numbers
77 George Benjamin
62 Mucky Molly
60 George Benjamin
59 Mucky Molly
58 Munaawib
Shortlist
* MUNAAWIB is an exposed 5yo
* He won a 7f handicap last time out
* Only 1 horse had his profile and he came 4th
* MUNAAWIB - Neutral profile seems a fair description
* MUCKY MOLLY - Don't want an older mare with a break
* Her record here gets her shortlisted
* GEORGE BENJAMIN - 2nd in a much better race last time
* It was a claimer but that doesn't worry me
* He has the backclass to win this and the numbers
* On Southwell 7f form he is a Class apart
Selection
GEORGE BENJAMIN 7/4
Win Bet
S o u t h w e l l 12.35
3/1 Alpha Tauri, 7/2 Pravda Street, 7/2 Staff Sergeant
7/1 Delightful Sleep, 7/1 Red Joker, 8/1 Roger Thorpe
10/1 Miami Gator, 33/1 Pelican Rock.
* This is a selling race over a mile
* There are just 18 of these races in December
* All 18 winners had at least 9 previous runs
* Those that did not had a 0-30 record
* RED JOKER fails that and has a huge absence
* He may win but he isn't the type that win these races
* ROGER THORPE makes no appeal with just 2 runs
* PELICAN ROCK - Too much to do at the weights
* This should be a four horse race
* MIAMI GATOR is unlikely to be fit enough
* DELIGHTFUL SLEEP has to be considered
* There are better horses at these weights
* He has less backclass than all the big guns here
* He has no Southwell form and not much 7f form either
* His Sire hasn't yet bred a Southwell winner
Shortlist
* ALPHA TAURI has the most recent run
* He comes from 6f to 8f though and no winner did that
* PRAVDA STREET has an obvious form chance
* He has just 1 run here quite a while ago
* He did well enough to show he acts here
* STAFF SERGEANT is 6 absent 46 days
* There were 3 winners aged 6 with similar breaks
* None of these won at Southwell though
* Interesting all 3 runs came after a long break
* This horse could well be best when Fresh
* Look at his record under these conditions
* Absent over a month when in fields of under 12
* STAFF SERGEANT has a 3-7 record doing this
* He won his maiden over course and distance
* I like the fact he has his first run for Michael Appleby
* It's a serious upgrade in stable for me
Selection
STAFF SERGEANT 6/4
C h e l t e n h a m 1.15
5/1 Eastlake, 6/1 Drumshambo, 6/1 Saved By John
6/1 Tanks For That, 7/1 Parsnip Pete, 7/1 Petit Robin
10/1 Shooters Wood, 12/1 Astracad, 14/1 French Opera
14/1 Greywell Boy, 16/1 Anquetta.
* This is a 2m Handicap Chase.
* There are 78 Handicaps over 2m in December
* Thats 78 handicaps in Class 1-2-3
* No horse aged 10 or more has won this race
* I looked at every 2m Handicap Chase at Cheltenham
* Thats at any time of year
* No horse aged 10 won with 11st 10lbs or more
* FRENCH OPERA is 10 and has that weight
* I thought it was asking a lot to defy a mark of 150
* Since 1998 just one 10yo won first time out at Cheltenham
* He had much less weight than PETIT ROBIN
* PETIT ROBIN looks too risky first time out
* There are 78 of these 2m Handicaps in December
* I Looked at horses aged 10 + with 11st 2lbs or more
* There was a shaky 1-31 record with these horses
* PETIT ROBIN and FRENCH OPERA have that to overcome
* TANKS FOR THAT has to overcome as well
* TANKS FOR THAT is also a 10yo
* Not keen on his absence or that he is down from 20f
* There are 78 of these 2m Handicaps in December
* Horses aged 10 or more are just 4-69
* TANKS FOR THAT is absent longer than all 4 winners
* Only 1 of these had just the 1 run this season
* That horse (Leaburn) had less weight
* He also had a better and more recent last run
* TANKS FOR THAT doesn't come out well enough
* ANQUETTA last ran in August and I don't like that
* GREYWELL BOY may just lack the class
* It's asking a lot of him with no runs here before
* PARSNIP PETE doesn't look well treated to me
* He has gone up 5lbs for getting beaten last time
* His two Cheltenham runs haven't been good either
* SHOOTERS WOOD is a seasonal debutant
* He won this race last year but had several prep runs
* None this year and much more weight
* His trainer also states he will need the run today
* SHOOTERS WOOD doesn't look worth the risk
Possibles
* DRUMSHAMBO needs a career best to win
* He won't be far away though in this sort of race
* EASTLAKE comes from a Good trial race
* His last run showed he could handle himself here
* My only worry would be the ground being too fast
* The going stick can't be trusted
* It does suggest it's faster than he is used to
* SAVED BY JOHN could go well with a fair weight
* He did Fall on his only run here though
* He may not have as much class as some
* I had a quick look at Tim Vaughan's Cheltenham record
* I had to have a second look after seeing the results
* So far this trainer has a 0-100 career record here
* I don't put my weight on trainer stats though
* ASTRACAD was well beaten in the Paddy Power
* The 1999 and 2000 winners did the same
* That gets him plenty of respect
* He has won this race before and will like the small field
* This horse isn't suited to big fields
* Thats partly why the Paddy Power didn't suit him
Selection
ASTRACAD 8/1
Each Way
S o u t h w e l l 1.45
9/4 Starlight Princess, 9/4 Stoney Quine
5/1 Bonnie Fairy, 6/1 Lady Knight, 8/1 My My My Diliza
10/1 Maupiti Express.
This is a Mile Nursery. Some complicated profiles
here. I'm in no rush to bet LADY KNIGHT as a filly
with just 3 runs before none of which came at this
track. I'd avoid BONNIE FAIRY for the same reason.
STONEY QUINE comes from a 7f race. I looked for
fillies that came up in distance like her and found
that none of them won when having more than 8
previous runs. All 16 lost meaning which means
she isn't like any winner of a similar 8f nursery.
I'd rather take STARLIGHT PRINCESS with a very
recent run. Look at fillies that ran within the past
3 days the only horse doing this (Inquisitress) won.
STARLIGHT PRINCESS has this advantage. That's
my main reason for siding with her. She does not
have Southwell form like STONEY QUINE but she
is a safer profile and that recent run should make
a lot of difference. She also has the best numbers.
Selection
STARLIGHT PRINCESS 2/1
Win Bet
C h e l t e n h a m 1.50
5/4 Kings Palace, 7/2 Saint Roque, 5/1 Milan Bound
6/1 Potters Cross, 16/1 Berea Boru, 20/1 Flicka Williams
20/1 Masters Hill.
* This is a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle over 3m
* Not really my kind of race
* I don't see any glaringly good angles
* No past winners came from a Chase
* None came from a Handicap
* FLICKA WILLIAMS - MASTERS HILL fail this
* The longest absent past winner was 46 days
* KINGS PALACE has 56 days but that's forgivable
* Most past winners had 1-2 hurdle runs
* SAINT ROQUE has 10 and does look exposed
* Perhaps too exposed to come from 2m 4f
* Given he was only 3rd last time his profile is wrong
* SAINT ROQUE has also been too busy this year
* POTTERS CROSS and BEREA BORU also look over raced
* MILAN BOUND looks a reasonable option
* MILAN BOUND and KINGS PALACE look best
* I don't like this race much. I'll try a Split Stake
Selection
KINGS PALACE - Half Stakes to win 11/10
MILAN BOUND - Half Stakes to win 5/1
S o u t h w e l l 2.55
13/8 Dan Emmett, 3/1 Sanctioned, 4/1 Crow Down
5/1 Newsreader, 8/1 Paradise Sea, 25/1 Amberjam
50/1 Zainda, 66/1 Cedar Glory.
* This is a 12f maiden race
* December has 37 of these races
* I looked at the record of horses aged 4 or more
* There was an unimpressive 4-115 record
* The 4 winners had 7 8 7 8 previous runs
* Those with under 7 runs had a 0-53 record
* I extended that search to 11f 12f 13f maidens
* I found 9 winners aged 4
* All 9 winners had at least 6 career starts
* Those with under 6 career starts were 0-74
* The implication is we don't want lighter raced 4yo's
* SANCTIONED fails this and is also a filly with an absence
* PARADISE SEA also fails this 4yo statistic
* CROW DOWN also fails this angles
* I think we should go with a 3 year old
* NEWSREADER has plenty to prove
* He did look to go off too fast last time
* If he settles he can not be ruled out
* He was eased last time once beaten
* DAN EMMETT is the most likely winner
* If he stays he should win
* Thats no certainty at all on breeding
* The clever bet could be the split stake bet
* Buy DAN EMMETT out of the race with a saver
* I'd rather to that than commit to him as a win bet
* Not with just 1 run and a sire with no 12f winners
Selection
DAN EMMETT 11/10 - Half Stakes to win
NEWSREADER 5/1 - Half Stakes to win
C h e l t e n h a m 2.25
9/2 Johns Spirit, 5/1 Colour Squadron, 6/1 Grandioso
8/1 Attaglance, Salut Flo, 10/1 Cantlow, 10/1 Double Ross
10/1 Easter Meteor, 14/1 Sew On Target, 16/1 Ma Filleule
16/1 Silver Roque, 20/1 Tap Night, 25/1 Gauvain.
* This is a 2m 5f Handicap Chase for 0-151 rated horses.
* This race was first run in 1963
* I looked at the last 18 renewals of this race
* Horses aged 6-7-8 have dominated this handicap
* They have won every renewal bar last year since 1993
* GAUVAIN looks too old aged 11
* The last winner aged 5 was back in 1966
* I wouldn't want a 5 year old if I could help it
* MA FILLEULE is a 5yo mare
* She has just 5 chase starts none of these in Britain
* 16 of the last 17 winners of this had more Chase runs
* Past winners had the following days absence
* 29 28 28 28 188 28 40 22 21 9 14 15 21 28 28 24 228 28
* 13 of the last 14 winners ran within the past 40 days
* The last few winners had the following runs this year
* 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 1 2 3 1 3 1 1 0 2
* SALUT FLO is the only horse with an absence
* He has to defy 639 days off the track
* You wouldn't rule it out from this Stable
* It's not statistically helpful to have an absence in this race
* Past winners came from the following distances
* 21f 21f 21f 21f 24f 21f 17f 20f 20f 21f 16f 20f 20f 21f
* Horses coming from 17f or less haven't done that well
* SEW ON TARGET comes from a 2m race
* No past winners came from handicaps over 18f or less
* All his wins came in a much lower class race
* SILVER ROQUE won last time but it was a Class 3
* Moving up 3 Grades in Class I don't fancy him
* Past winners had the following Chase starts
* 3 6 12 7 9 6 9 9 8 7 13 8 9 19 9 14 13 22
* DOUBLE ROSS only has 5 Chases runs
* He fell early in one of those as well
* DOUBLE ROSS comes from a Class 3 Handicap
* He is moving up 3 Grades in Class
* No recent winners came from Class 3 Handicaps
* The Paddy Power Gold Cup is a very smart trial race
* 7 winners came from this race including 3 of the last 4
* All 7 winners finished 1-2-3-4-5 in the Paddy Power
* JOHNS SPIRIT won the Paddy Power
* COLOUR SQUADRON was 2nd and ATTAGLANCE 4th
* TAP NIGHT was only 8th in that race
* I needed a better run last time out
* EASTER METEOR is having his 5th run of the year
* No past winners had more than 3 races that season
* May not matter much but no winners had his profile
* He ran well last time under a big weight at Newbury
* I don't have a good enough reason to oppose him
* I don't like he has been put up 5lbs for losing twice
* CANTLOW comes here after a win
* Couldn't rule him out but there are doubts
* He has never run over fences here being my worry
* He's never ran in Graded class over fences
* Yet he is level weights with a Paddy Power winner
* Given the choice I'd prefer a Paddy Power winner
Shortlist
* GRANDIOSO is a 6yo with 5 Chase starts
* He ran well last time on his first run of the year
* Connections were pleased as he nearly died of colic
* Winners aged 6 had 9 8 7 6 6 7 previous chase runs
* GRANDIOSO is less experienced albeit by 1 race
* He also has no Cheltenham form over fences
* There were 5 winners aged 6 since 1987
* Three of these had more runs that season
* The two like GRANDIOSO with 1 run had less weight
* He does have plenty to prove and isn't quite right
* He will come on a lot for his last run though
* COLOUR SQUADRON was 2nd in the Paddy Power
* Arguably unlucky he could easily win this
* He does only have 5 Chase starts
* Most winners had more runs
* All those from the Paddy Power did as well
* I liked him last time and like him again here
* Not worried he has never won a chase before
* It does bother me he has gone up 7lbs since last time
* Bothers me too he has just 5 Chase runs doing is
* JOHN'S SPIRIT won the Paddy Power Gold Cup
* That's the best trial race for this
* His Stable did the same with another 6yo in 2006
* You can't rule out further improvement so he's in
* JOHNS SPIRIT could still be well treated off 148
* My main worry would be the drying ground
* ATTAGLANCE was 4th in the Paddy Power
* He has a weight pull with the 1st and 2nd that day
* He's well treated on his hurdle rating
* No reason why he shouldn't go close
Selection
I could go with any of these four.
I am going with the Paddy Power form
COLOUR SQUADRON 11/2 Win Bet
JOHNS SPIRIT 6/1 Saver
C h e l t e n h a m 3.00
4/9 The New One, 5/2 Zarkandar, 14/1 Court Minstrel
25/1 Seabreeze D4ho, 40/1 Jumps Road
66/1 Albert Hall, 66/1 Hawkhill.
This Grade 2 hurdle looks a match. Obviously the
most likely winner is THE NEW ONE but I couldn't
bet him as short as 1/2 when he faces a horse as
good as ZARKANDAR. After all, tally up victories
in Grade 1 races and ZARKANDAR leads 3-1 with
only one more run. Seven runners makes this far
harder to say but surely the bet here has to be an
each way bet on ZARKANDAR at anything around
9/4 given both horses are rated the same and few
horses are entitled to get anywhere near this pair.
Selection
ZARKANDAR 9/4 + Each Way
D o n c a s t e r 3.15
7/2 Bear4s Affair, 7/2 Carrigmorna King
5/1 De Boitron, 5/1 Harry The Viking, 7/1 Baile Anrai
10/1 Lost Glory, 14/1 Mart Lane 16/1 Night In Milan.
* This is a Handicap chase over 3m
* There are 116 of these races in December in similar class
* LOST GLORY didn't come out like a winner
* Not with his absence and poor last run
* DE BOITRON has a career high mark today
* Far from convinced he will be able to overcome that
* DE BOITRON also comes from a 2m race
* That big jump in trip will not be easy
* BEAR4S AFFAIR has just won a Novice Chase
* Fantastic stable and a very sexy runner
* I looked at horses from Novice or Beginners Chases
* There was a modest 3-32 record
* None of those won last time out as he did
* Those that had 3 or more chase runs were 1-19
* That's not a great return and none won last time
* May be asking a lot to defy a mark of 140
* MART LANE had his limitations exposed last time
* I think he may be more comfortable in a grade lower
Possibles
* NIGHT IN MILAN is hard to read as a 7yo
* Her disappointed over hurdles last time out
* Statistically I have to make him a neutral
* He has never ran off this Chase mark before
* He was beaten in a photo in last years race
* He is higher in the weights but it's enough to respect him
* HARRY THE VIKING is hard to rule out
* If I look at 8 year old seasonal debutants
* I find a 0-30 record but that could be a statistical blip
* These types have won at slightly shorter and longer trips
* BAILE ANRAI - I think he has a chance
* Not the progressive type he once was
* I see him having a fair chance from the correct rating
* CARRIGMORNA KING has a reasonably good profile
* Horses aged 7 from a handicap in the last month
* Finishing 1-2-3-4-5 in that race
* Having 5-7 previous Chase runs
* I found a 5-24 record with similar types
* It is a safe risk free profile and he is a big runner
* He looks the sensible bet each way
Selection
CARRIGMORNA KING 4/1
Each Way
****************************************************
****************************************************
Best Wishes
Guy Ward
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk
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