Mathematician 1857

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Optional Account - 3 Bets

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Today's Bets

Optional Account

Aintree 1.30

WILDE BLUE YONDER 9/2 Each Way

Chepstow 1.55

STORM OF SWORDS 5/2 Each Way

Aintree 4.15

Grand National (Staked to #10 stakes for clarity)

COLBERT STATION 50/1 #4 Win #1 Place

RAZ DE MAREE 50/1 #2 Each Way

BURTON POINT 16/1 #1 Win

Today is mainly about trying to get the National
winner and for reasons given later I have ended
up on a couple of outsiders. I decided against a
Full account bet. In no hurry. I can't imagine we
can do any better today than the last two days.

Today's Best Bet

Chepstow 1.55

STORM OF SWORDS 9/4 - 5/2

Each Way

I don't normally put horses up each way at 5/2
but only a few minutes ago the 3rd favourite
withdrew and that caused him to shorten and
the Optional account is here for bets that may
not be suitable to main account bets and that
fits the bill here. I think he can win this race.
I am making him my best bet but obviously it
is mainly about trying to win the G. National.

G r a n d N a t i o n a l

I have spent a lot of time on the race perhaps a
bit too long and I am not confident this year. My
biggest headache is that since the race became
easier and the fences smaller it is hard to know
what to do with the smaller undersized horses.

Pre the changes I'd have ruled these out with a
bit of confidence but It isn't safe to do this now.

It's a problem as there are several smaller types
this year. Burton Port has one of the best profiles
and is well treated but he is undersized. He had
to make my shortlist. So too did Raz De Maree a
small horse again. The modifications have only
made judging these horses harder and the race
is more a burden than a pleasure at the moment.

Selection Staked to a #10 Stake

COLBERT STATION 50/1 #4 Win #1 Place

RAZ DE MAREE 50/1 #2 Each Way

BURTON POINT 16/1 #1 Win

Today's Message

We have had such good Aintree results this week
I have had to make Aintree the main focus today.
Aintree dominates the message. For months now
Lingfield's played the significant role in Saturday
messages but I'm a little bored of it and dropping
it now the Flat has arrived apart from one race. I
don't see much point in forcing loads of previews
in races that can't be sorted. Happy to ignore lots
of dangerous races today and keep things tight.

Y e s t e r d a y 's S u m m a r y

Another brilliant day yesterday with a big priced
winner and a profit with all three bets. It started
with a tiny profit on Josses Hill in a race I staked
very well. Rolling Aces placed each way at 20/1
and looked the winner once or twice and he ran
a massive race and we came out ahead. Finally
we got the big one with Clondaw Kaempfer who
won at 10/1. Unusual bet in a handicap hurdle a
type of race I rarely use but with Doctor Harper
winning on Thursday that is 2 big price winners
in these race so highly delighted. Happy again
with my current form and I feel a weight's now
been lifted after the Funeral. To be fair credits
mainly due to my Aintree Statistics which have
worked out very well on the opening two days.

P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S

A i n t r e e 1.30

5/1 Lac Fontana, 5/1 Sea Lord, 5/1 Wilde Blue Yonder
13/2 Oscar Hoof, 8/1 Dell4 Arca, 8/1 Volnay De Thaix, 10/1 Un Ace
12/1 Kayf Moss, 14/1 Monkey Kingdom, 14/1 Splash Of Ginge
20/1 Kilcooley, 33/1 No No Romeo.

* This is a 2m 4f Graded Novice Hurdle
* NO NO ROMEO has to go from a Bumper
* Horses from Non Graded Hurdles won 2 races
* These are just ordinary Maiden or Novice Hurdles
* The 2 winners doing this had just 1 previous run
* None won Ordinary Novice -Maiden hurdles with 2 + runs
* OSCAR HOOF - KILCOOLEY - MONKEY KINGDOM fail this
* OSCAR HOOF fails other angles as a 6yo
* None like him lacked Graded form or came from a 2m race
* UN ACE looks a little short of hurdling experience
* Horses that came from handicaps are 0-20 in this race
* DELL4 ARCA comes from a handicap and fails that
* VOLNAY DE THAIX also comes from a handicap
* LAC FONTANA also fails that coming from a handicap
* There are 8 winners coming from a 2m race
* All 8 winners were 5 year olds
* No horse aged 6 or more has won from a 2m race
* SPLASH OF GINGE fails this
* SEA LORD also fails this as a 7 year old
* Horses aged 7 and only 1-27 in this race
* That winner had more backclass than Sea Lord
* The last 17 winners all ran in the past 8 weeks
* SEA LORD has to defy 139 days absence today
* KAYF MOSS comes here with an improving profile
* Missed Cheltenham but still needs respect
* The 2008 winner came from the same race as him
* 5 year olds from the Supreme Novice Hurdle are strong
* Those finishing 2-3-4-5-6 in that race are ideal
* WILDE BLUE YONDER fits this profile
* His Racing Post Ratings are getting progressively better

Selection

WILDE BLUE YONDER 9/2

Each Way

C h e p s t o w 1.55

2/1 Such A Legend, 5/2 Storm Of Swords, 7/2 Bodega
10/1 Reillys Daughter, 10/1 Rock On Rocky, 16/1 Maria4s Choice
25/1 Bawden Rocks, 25/1 Ice Nelly, 33/1 Mr Fitzroy
40/1 Alberto4s Dream.

This is a 2m Novice Hurdle and only a handful can win this
race. SUCH A LEGEND sets a reasonable standard but feels
too short around 11/10. BODEGA is entitled to be considered
each way but it took him 4 runs to win a maiden hurdle and
well beaten in a handicap last time is hardly a step forward.
REILLYS DAUGHTER was only a 100/1 chance when placing
in a minor race last time. STORM OF SWORDS looks a fair
bet to me each way. His trainer Dan Skelton stated last year
we wouldn't see the best of him until the spring and today
he is in a race he should be capable of winning. I think he
has the most progression of these and if this track suits him
more than Warwick last time he will surely go very close.

Selection

STORM OF SWORDS 5/2

Each Way

A i n t r e e 2.05

9/4 Trifolium, 5/2 Hinterland, 4/1 Balder Succes
5/1 Next Sensation, 10/1 Simply Ned, 16/1 Moscow Mannon
16/1 Ted Veale.

* This is a Grade 1 Novice Chase over 2 Miles.
* 19 of the last 21 winners had Grade 1 form
* This is a Grade 1 race and I would want that
* NEXT SENSATION only has Grade 3 form
* SIMPLY NED lacks any form in Graded races
* Both these horses come from handicaps
* All 17 horses doing that lost in this race
* Almost every past winner ran at Cheltenham
* MOSCOW MANNON missed Cheltenham
* Beaten in a Non Graded Novice Chase last time he is out
* BALDER SUCCES also missed Cheltenham this season
* The other strike against him is he comes from 2m 5f
* Only 2 of the last 17 winners dropped in distance
* Both horses had 3 Chase starts and BALDER SUCCES has 6
* No winners came from 2m 4f or more like him anyway
* BALDER SUCCES is more exposed than most winners too
* TED VEALE fell in the Arkle at 25/1 last time out
* That probably wont be good enough

Shortlist

* HINTERLAND fell in the Queen Mother last time
* There were 3 past winners that fell before winning this
* I don't have any serious issues with him

* TRIFOLIUM was 3rd in the Arkle last time out
* I looked at horses from the Arkle and Queen Mother
* No past winners came from the Queen Mother Champion Chase
* Thats something Hunterland is trying to do
* 14 of the last 17 winners came from the Arkle
* TRIFOLIUM has a solid profile doing this
* One slight worry is a recent injury scare
* Both horses are 3/1 or more in many places
* I think there is a case for betting both
* If either win it is an even money winner

Selection

TRIFOLIUM 3/1 + Win Bet

HINTERLAND 3/1 + Win Bet

N e w c a s t l e 2.45

3/1 Aetna, 7/2 Jamaican Bolt, 6/1 Da4quonde
7/1 Another Wise Kid, 8/1 Singeur, 10/1 Bear Behind
12/1 Fast Shot, 14/1 Angus Og, 16/1 Rusty Rocket
25/1 Bond Fastrac, 25/1 Lastchancelucas.

* This is a 5f handicap for 0-95 rated horses
* ANOTHER WISE KID surely has to be the bet each way
* Two recent runs the last 6 days ago
* Impossible to judge his rivals but most lack a run
* AETNA and DA4QUONDE are mares first time out
* I wouldn't chose them against a twice recent racer
* Something could easily be better than my choice
* I don't think 3 horses will be though
* ANOTHER WISE KID looks the safest bet

Selection

ANOTHER WISE KID 6/1

Each Way

A i n t r e e 2.50

6/4 At Fishers Cross, 11/4 Zarkandar
5/1 Melodic Rendezvous 13/2 Whisper, 10/1 Thousand Stars
14/1 Salubrious, 100/1 The Knoxs.

The Liverpool Hurdle is a Grade One over 3 miles and this
year we have a badly framed 7 runner race with 6 horses
that have some sort of chance. These angles interested me.

* Horses from Cheltenham's Stayers Hurdle dominate
* They won 9 of the past 10 renewals of this race
* Horses that come from handicaps are 0-29 in this race
* WHISPER has this to overcome
* He also has to come from a 2m 5f race
* Look at horses going up in distance in this race
* All 31 horses that tried were beaten
* WHISPER also fails this
* THOUSAND STARS fails this and is a 10 year old
* He would be the oldest winner of this race
* I don't want a 10yo coming up from 2m 2f
* MELODIC RENDEZVOUS comes from a 2m race
* Look at his sire Where or When
* His National Hunt runners over 2m 5f or more are 0-24
* That raises a doubt about whether he will stay
* I couldn't bet him because of that
* Every past winner was 1-2-3-4 last time out
* SALUBRIOUS was beaten than any past winner

Shortlist

* I think the best two profiles are these
* AT FISHERS CROSS - ZARKANDAR
* Both were 3rd and 4th in this years Stayers Hurdle
* Either of these could win
* I have always had a soft spot for ZARKANDAR
* At the bigger price I am tempted more by him

Selection

ZARKANDAR 7/2

Win Bet

A i n t r e e 3.25

100/30 Victor Hewgo, 4/1 Unioniste, 8/1 Saint Are
9/1 Johns Spirit, 10/1 Gullinbursti, 12/1 Duke Of Lucca
14/1 Minella For Value, 14/1 Renard, 16/1 Wiesentraum
20/1 Carruthers, 20/1 Sir Du Bearn, 20/1 Vino Griego
20/1 Wetak, 25/1 Kian4s Delight, 25/1 Our Mick
25/1 Tranquil Sea, 25/1 Your Busy, 50/1 Golden Chieftain.

* This is a 3m 1f Handicap Chase
* There is no real time to do this race properly
* Just a couple of observations to make
* 2 horses fail my Generic Statistics in this race
* CARRUTHERS has too much weight for a 7yo
* UNIONISTE also fails my angles as well
* I looked at all 6yo winners of handicaps at Aintree
* They all had at least 13lbs less than he has
* They were all lighter raced over fences as well
* UNIONISTE is therefore not a horse I want to bet

I ran my angles through the other runners looking for
a shortlist. I chucked a few out looking quite exposed
over fences. I didn't shortlist VICTOR HEWGO as none
of the past winners came from ordinary Novice Chases.
I think there are four horses that I could shortlist here.

GULLINBURSTI - WIESENTRAUM
SAINT ARE - JOHNS SPIRIT

Selection

SAINT ARE 8/1 Win Bet

GULLINBURSTI 12/1 Win Bet

L i n g f i e l d 3.40

4/5 Barley Mow, 9/4 Sloane Avenue,
7/1 American Hope, 8/1 Bow Creek
40/1 Zampa Manos.

* This is a Listed race over a mile
* SLOANE AVENUE - I want to take him on
* Good horse. Won a maiden last time
* That was 56 days ago though
* I felt there were stronger options here
* He did put in a very decent Racing Post Rating on his debut
* BARLEY MOW does have better form and Graded backclass
* AMERICAN HOPE should not be underestimated
* Running Ertijaal to a head from Stall 1 last time was excellent
* With a recent run he shouldn't be 6/1

You could stake this various ways. BARLEY MOW to win with
either a Place bet or saver on AMERICAN HOPE. Equally you
could bet them both at level stakes. That way you are buying
BARLEY MOW out of the race and will finish roughly level if
he wins but have AMERICAN HOPE for a decent profit. That's
probably the way I would go. I think both horses have decent
chances of beating a once raced maiden winner promising as
he clearly is. I think the split stake bet makes perfect sense.

Selection

BARLEY MOW - Half your stake to win 4/5

AMERICAN HOPE - Half your stake to win 6/1

A i n t r e e 4.15

Crabbie4s Grand National Chase
(Handicap) (Grade 3) 4m3f110y

8/1 Teaforthree, 10/1 Monbeg Dude, 12/1 Double Seven
12/1 Long Run, 14/1 Tidal Bay, 16/1 Burton Port, 16/1 Pineau De Re
16/1 Prince De Beauchene, 16/1 Rocky Creek, 20/1 Balthazar King
20/1 Big Shu, 20/1 The Package, 20/1 Triolo D4alene, 25/1 Lion Na Bearnai
25/1 Shakalakaboomboom, 33/1 Alvarado, 33/1 Chance Du Roy
33/1 Colbert Station, 33/1 Hawkes Point, 33/1 The Rainbow Hunter
40/1 Mountainous, 40/1 Mr Moonshine, 50/1 Across The Bay
50/1 Battle Group, 50/1 Last Time D4albain, 50/1 One In A Milan
50/1 Our Father, 50/1 Quito De La Roque, 50/1 Raz De Maree
50/1 Rose Of The Moon, 50/1 Vesper Bell, 50/1 Vintage Star
50/1 Walkon, 66/1 Buckers Bridge, 66/1 Golan Way, 66/1 Hunt Ball
66/1 Kruzhlinin, 66/1 Twirling Magnet, 66/1 Wayward Prince
80/1 Swing Bill.

The Grand National has changed recently and not many
people think for the better. The Fences have been made
easier making a level playing field. There were only two
fallers in last years race. No horses fell yesterday in the
Foxhunters either. It makes ruling out horses harder and
with several small undersized horses this year we can't
make the safe assumptions we could in past years. That
said there are still many trends that have stood up over
many years in this race and still have since modifications.

I ran my angles very quickly just to see if there was any
stand out horse and they returned me 6 I could shortlist.

BALTHAZAR KING
LION NA BEARNA
MONBEG DUDE
BURTON PORT
SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM
RAZ DE MAREE

It is only the first of several steps to trying to find the winner.

* The last 24 winners had the following runs that season
* 7 4 3 4 6 4 5 6 6 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 2 5 4 6 7 6
* Clearly having 4-5-6-7 runs this year is ideal
* I can live with 3 runs if the horse is unexposed
* If he has under 21 National Hunt runs and 9-20 chase runs
* Only won Miinnehoma 1994 with 2 runs that year
* The following horses look underraced to me
* ROCKY CREEK - WALKON - THE PACKAGE
* RAINBOW HUNTER -CHANCE DU ROY - GOLAN WAY
* ROSE OF THE MOON - ALVARADO - LAST TIME D'ALBAIN
* SWING BILL - BIG SHU

* It is very important to have a recent race
* The past 21 winners all ran within 8 weeks
* I do not want a horse absent more than 60 days
* The last 21 winners were absent this many days
* 35 56 35 23 21 41 32 27 48 28 20 25 42 20 24 35 23 16 35 23 35 23 25
* Look at the absences of the Runner Ups
* Horses 2nd in the National had the following absences
* 49 30 45 49 25 27 21 22 22 100 35 23 63 345 28 16 44 18 42 21 23 23 102
* 19 of the past 23 Runners Ups also ran within 7 weeks
* I am prepared to have some leeway with 60 days absence
* The following horses fail this statistic
* ROCKY CREEK - BATTLE GROUP- MOUNTAINOUS
* PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE - RAINBOW HUNTER
* VESPER BELL - ROSE OF THE MOON
* MINELLA FOR VALUE - ALVARADO

* Horses aged 6 and 7 have appalling records
* They haven't won since 1940 and few even finish the race
* Horses aged 6 and 7 are too young
* The following horses fail this
* TRIOLO D'ALENE - KRUZHLININ


* Chasing Experience is of obvious importance
* The previous 22 winners had the following Chase runs
* 23 27 12 12 24 14 13 10 11 37 41 14 12 24 17 25 10 23 16 9 14 28 14
* The least Experienced Chaser was Miinnehoma in 1994
* He had 9 previous Chase runs
* There were two more that had 10 Chase starts
* Horses with Under 9 Chase runs are unlike any past winners
* I looked at the Chase runs of the last 20 Runner Ups
* 9 11 10 24 18 11 13 15 23 14 20 10 11 9 19 14 9 8 24 32 22 8
* I would be wary of any horses with under 9 Chase starts
* The following horses and fail this statistic
* ROCKY CREEK (7) OUR FATHER (6) HAWKES POINT (7)
* VESPER BELL (8) ROSE OF THE MOON (6) ONCE IN A MILAN (6)
* MINELLA FOR VALUE (8)
* We have to bear in mind the race is changing
* The 2012 4th (Cappa Blue) had just 6 chase runs
* Mely Moss was 2nd in 2000 with 5 Chase starts
* Lord Atterbury was 3rd in 2004 with 4 Chase starts
* The race has been made easier recently

* 22 of the last 23 had raced in Graded Class before
* The vast majority of the runner ups also did this
* The ones that did not were mainly lightly raced
* Having No Graded form is not acceptable
* The following horses and fail this statistic
* KRUZHLININ is 7 and fails it lacking any Graded form
* MINELLA FOR VALUE also lacks Graded form

* DOUBLE SEVEN fails it despite having had 27 career runs
* He has never raced in Graded Class before either
* Half the price because MCCoy rides any value has gone
* Another thing I don't like is that he is a small horse

* Class is important in a Grand National Winner
* 12 of the last 13 winners won in Listed Grade or higher
* The exception was Ballabriggs (2011)
* He had won in Class 2 race but hadn't been tested in higher
* I'd argue he should be seen as a Graded winner
* He won the 2010 Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival
* It was a Class 2 handicap but he did that with Topweight
* That was more than worthy or a Graded win
* The following horses and fail this statistic

* MR MOONSHINE - TEAFORTHREE- BIG SHU - OUR FATHER
* VINTAGE STAR - HAWKES POINT- KRUZHLININ - PINEAR DU RE
* TWIRLING MAGIC - VESPER BELL- LAST TIME D'ALBAIN
* SWING BILL - ONCE IN A MILAN - NIGHT IN MILAN
* MINELLA FOR VALUE- ROSE OF THE MOON

* I think we should ignore the weight statistics
* The 2012 winner won with 11st 6lbs
* The 2010 winner won with 11st 5lbs
* Red Rum won with 11st 8lbs and again with 12st
* Corbiere won with 11st 4lbs and Grittar with 11st 5lbs
* L'Escargot won with 11st 3lbs and Gay Trip with 11st 5lbs
* I wont be ruling any horse out on their weight

* HUNT BALL seems an unlikely winner to me
* He fails only minor statistics though
* Such as winning more than 6 handicap Chases
* No past winner had won more than that
* Every winner since 1970 had won over at least 3m
* HUNT BALL hasn't so I would ignore him

* PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE has not run in 79 days
* The last 21 winners all ran within 56 days and that's a worry
* He also has to come from a 2m 4f race which is not ideal
* No recent winner did that when as exposed as he is
* He also has to prove he will stay
* His sire hasn't yet bred a winner over 3m 2f or more

* TEAFORTHREE was 3rd in last years race
* He carries 5lbs less weight this year
* The main stat he fails is failing to win in Listed Grade or higher
* We know 12 of the last 13 winners had done that
* Personally 3rd last year is good enough to ignore that
* He is 1 year older this year and has 1 fewer runs this season
* When Ballabriggs won he has 12 Chase runs and 3 that year
* TEAFORTHREE has 14 chase runs and 3 this season
* TEAFORTHREE has also never won a Handicap Chase
* Past winners had won the following number of handicaps
* 3 3 3 1 2 1 3 3 2 3 6 0 4 4 5 4 3 3 1 1 2
* Only Bindaree won with 0 Handicap Chase wins
* TEAFORTHREE has more positives than negatives
* I don't like his price though
* I don't think a prep run in the Gold Cup helps him much either

* ACROSS THE BAY unseated rider last time
* Not the best preparation for a race like this
* He was 14th last year beaten 87 lengths in this race
* He has only finished in 10 of his 15 Chase runs
* I don't like his lack of form in big field Handicap chases
* Look at his record in Handicap Chases with 11 + runners
* UR 8 14 7 PU PU PU UR
* His Sire's won bred a winner over further than 3m 5f yet
* Too many doubts given a poor run in last years race

* BALTHAZAR KING may not get this distance by King's Theatre
* I don't want a Cross Country horse much as Silver Birch did it
* Won at Cheltenham I don't like him enough here
* He was thrashed in this last year
* His trainer said after the race he did not get the trip
* Look at his sire King's Theatre
* His runners in Listed and Graded races
* When running over 3m 2f they are 0-24
* He has winners in 3m 7f Cross Country races (Class 2)

* LONG RUN is a top class horse in regression
* After year of Grade 1 races this is his first handicap chase
* Past winners had ran in the following Handicap Chases
* 17 9 7 5 21 8 8 6 6 24 33 7 12 14 12 15 7 16 7 4 7
* LONG RUN has no experience in this kind of race
* He is Sired by Cadoudal who's runners at 4m + are 0-16
* All 16 lost and just 1 managed to place over 4m +
* LONG RUN has ran 14 times since 2011
* His Worse 4 Racing Post Ratings were his last 4 races
* That shows regression and he lacks big field experience
* His Class may get him through but there are holes in his profile

* MONBEG DUDE has a reasonable profile
* Nothing statistical worries me about his chance
* Far from convinced his jumping is good enough
* He may want the ground to be softer as well
* You would also worry if a Flat track suited him
* At 14/1 he does not tempt me

* LION NA BEARNAI - I don't really want a 12yo if I can help it
* Not sure he will stay this far either
* I did a search for all Graded Handicap Chases
* In recent years horses aged 12 or more are 1-174 in these
* LION NA BEARNAI fails that and looks wrong

* TIDAL BAY is 13 and has topweight
* The last winner aged 13 was back in 1923
* He certainly has the class and he may well win
* I just can't live with a 13yo Topweight in the race
* Not given that 1-173 statistic that Lion Na Bearnai also fails

* BUCKERS BRIDGE has never won beyond 2m 4f
* I don't think he will have the stamina or substance
* WAYWARD PRINCE probably wont cope in this race
* Not given the form he has shown recently
* QUITO DE LA ROQUE has to prove he will stay
* His Sire hasn't bred a winner beyond 3m 1f yet
* He is a Mudlark without a turn of foot
* He may not find ideal conditions
* The last 21 winners had ran in at least 4 Handicap Chases
* QUITO DE LA ROQUE has only ran in one
* He hasn't shown enough recently to risk him

* MOUNTAINOUS won the Welsh National
* He has 9 Chase starts which is borderline
* He has a longer absence than any past winner
* I'd prefer a more recent run and softer ground

* SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM may not have achieved fitness
* His recent form also suggests he is not fit enough yet
* Sometimes you have to look beyond these things
* This is a horse I would keep on side around 40/1
* I like his age and breeding
* May well have gone off to fast at Cheltenham
* Very nearly made the shortlist

S h o r t l i s t

* RAZ DE MAREE gets through all my main angles
* Biggest concern is he in smaller than ideal
* Another horse giving us a dilemma now the fences are easier
* He has won a Munster National easily albeit off a low weight
* He is risky but his profile and price do offer something

* BURTON POINT has a very solid profile
* One of the strongest in the race and very attractive
* He is handicapped to win if he can return to his best
* My only worry with him is his size and the big field
* He is a small undersized horse and I don't like that
* He won over hurdles in a 15 runner race
* He led all the way that day avoiding any traffic
* He was 2nd in a Hennessy in a big field which will reassure some
* He had a featherweight that day and was at his peak
* He has clearly been laid out for the race
* Big field and Aintree fences will be his main worry
* I find it hard to bet a small undersized horse in a big field

* COLBERT STATION - I have backed him at 75/1
* He passes all my "Must have" statistics
* At that price I'd expect some problems though
* Tony MCCoy has rejected him
* Not worried. Mc Coy doesn't think statistically
* He chose wrong twice at Cheltenham in big races
* He has chosen a small horse without any Graded form
* His reasons for doing this were simply ridiculous
* COLBERT STATION Fell in last years race
* I would think he did considering he had just 5 Chase starts
* He had a longer absence than the previous 21 winners as well
* He shouldn't really have run
* This is a good horse though
* He has a Racing Post Rating of 159
* He has won a 22 runner Chase worth 89k very easily before
* He now has 9 Chase starts which is my bare minimum
* I appreciate that's not many but he is a 75/1 chance
* He was going very well before falling at the 15th last year
* Clearly his jumping is a worry
* COLBERT STATION has not finished in 2 of his last 3 Chases
* That worries me but last years winner fell several times before
* Since the Fences were made easier it's less of a problem
* I can live with that considering he is a 75/1 chance on Betfair
* Trained by Ted Walsh he has several recent excuses
* He has probably been trained for this race all season
* He is too smart to right off
* His experience in last years race shouldn't be considered
* I think it has been and that's why he is such a big price
* Don't forget he was a 12/1 chance last year with more weight
* I also like he is a 10 year old as this statistic shows

This is an interesting statistic. Older horses dominated recently.

2010 - The 1st 2nd 3rd 5th 6th 7th 8th were aged 10 or more

2011 - The 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th were aged 10 or more

2012 - The 1st 4th 5th 6th 7th were aged 10 or more

2013 - The 1st 2nd 4th 5th 6th were aged 10 or more

S e l e c t i o n

COLBERT STATION 50/1 + Win Bet

RAZ DE MAREE 50/1 + Win Bet

BURTON POINT 16/1 + Saver

A i n t r e e 5.10

7/2 Katgary, 10/1 Vasco Du Ronceray, 12/1 Court Minstrel
12/1 Leviathan, 12/1 Rainbow Peak, 14/1 Bold Henry, 14/1 Bordoni
14/1 Glen Beg, 14/1 Massini4s Trap, Nesterenko, 16/1 Rocky Wednesday
16/1 Somethingwonderful, 16/1 Yorkist, 20/1 Drumlee, 20/1 Kashmir Peak
20/1 Scots Gaelic, 20/1 Ubaltique, 25/1 Jumps Road, 25/1 Roman Flight
25/1 Strongpoint, 25/1 Swnymor, 25/1 Twoways.

* This is a 2m Handicap Hurdle
* No time or interest in doing this race
* Just wanted to see how the Generic Stats get on
* The following horses all fail Generic Statistics
* STRONGPOINT -NESTERENKO -VASCO DU RONCERAY
* BORDONI - MASSINI4S TRAP -KASHMIR PEAK
* COURT MINSTREL -ROCKY WEDNESDAY
* I have weak angles in this race
* Not enough to waste any more time in it
* I will just leave the above horses as ones to avoid

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