Haydock 2.40

7/2 Notachance, 9/2 Enqarde, 9/2  Sojourn
5/1 The Two Amigos, 15/2 Lord Du Mesnil
8/1 Achille, 11/1 Potters Legend 12/1 Ramses De Teillee
16/1 Perfect Candidate.

Grand National Trial

Handicap Chase

Official Ratings of Past winners

136 148 146 146 144 139 131 129 138
149 143 143 144 121 126 135 136

No horse won this rated 150 +
All 21 that tried were beaten
RAMSES DE TEILEE fails this

January February March
Handicap Chases over 3m 4f +
Run in Class 2 or higher
Since 2006
Horses aged 11 or more
Absent more than 44 days
Had a 0-72 record
PERFECT CANDIDATE fails this

Past winners
Had the following runs this season
2 1 5 1 3 0 5 2 2 3 4 2 5 3 1 4 0 3 3 6

Horses with just 1 run
In the previous 3 months do win
But they all had under 12 chases
Horses with 12 or more chase runs
Will probably need 2 + recent runs
ACHILLE has this to overcome

Past winners
Had the following chase runs
24 7 17 8 11 11 14 5 11
13 11 14 5 5 11 7 6 9 3

The last winner
With under 5 chase runs was 2001
SOJOURN only has 4 chase runs

Every winner since 2006
Had at least 12 career starts
SOJOURN only has 8 career run

Only 3 past winners of this race
Had under 14 lifetime starts
They were aged 9 9 10 years old
No younger horse managed it (0-27)
SOJOURN fails this as an 8yo

Horses under 9 years old
Under 20 lifetimes runs
Under 11 Chase runs
Absent more than 5 weeks
Have a 0-26 record since 2004
SOJOURN fails this angle too

Since 1998
Horses aged 7 are 2-34
Winning in 2004 and 2007
Since 2008 horses aged 7 are 0-20
Both had 10st 6lbs or less weight
NOTACHANCE is 7 years old
He has to carry 11st 6lbs weight
A stone more than any past 7yo
None of which have won since 2008

Past winners
Had the following chase runs

24 7 17 8 11 11 14 5 11
13 11 14 5 5 11 7 6 9 3

Last years winner has 24 an exception
Horses with over 17 chases are 1-35
PERFECT CANDIDATE has 36 chases
POTTERS LEGEND is exposed with 23

ENQARDE is a 7yo
Not ideal but he ist he right type
Lightly raced at least in Britain
He has a low weight too
Stamina could be his problem

Horses sired by Kapgarde
Running in Listed and Graded races
Racing over 3m 1f and more
Have a 0-20 record so far

Horses sired by Kapgarde
Running in Class 3 or higher
Have not won past 3m 2f yet (0-16)

The only 2 horse
That escapes statistical criticism

THE TWO AMIGOS 7/1
LORD DU MESNIL 7/1

Horses aged under 9
Rated 147 or higher are 0-13
LORD DU MESNIL fails this
But he has a 3lbs claimer on
So technically he is excused

THE TWO AMIGOS looks fine
He has to get over Chepstow
When 3rd in the Welsh National
But 6 weeks may be enough time

There is statistical evidence

2012 Giles Cross
2011 Silver By Nature
2008 Miko De Beauchene

All finished 1-2-3-4-5-6-7
In the Welsh National last time
And came out and won this race

The runner up in 2018 + 2019
Both had the same profile too
Coming from the Welsh National

THE TWO AMIGOS is a positive
But he has been drifting for this
And not keen on smaller types

LORD DU MESNIL is prefered
He comes from the Welsh National
And has had a lighter campaign
I opposed him at Chepstow
He failed a 0-015 statistic that day

Both these horses
Were 2nd and 4th in last years race
LORD DU MESNIL was only a 7yo then
Feel both have to be staked here

Selection

£5 Win Bet THE TWO AMIGOS 8/1

£5 Win Bet LORD DU MESNIL  8/1