Mathematician 3618
Saturday October 17th

9 Previews
0 Account Bet  
1 Highlighted Bet


 
Highlighted Bet



Stratford 3.28

DIAMOND GAIT 100/30-7/2

Each Way



My two other options for bets
May be in races a bit too warm
This is the compromise option
We do not want any non runner
Could have waited for Sunday
But decided to go with this bet

Even if a bit shorter than ideal



Today's Message



Ascot Champions day

Obviously quite a ruthless card 
I have to give it some coverage
Given how prestigious this is
But not at the expense of races
That are softer and not as tough
And races that may provide a bet


9 Previews

Stratford 12.43
Stratford 1.13
Ascot 1.20
Leopardstown 1.50
Ascot 1.55
Stratford 2.18
Market Rasen 2.46
Stratford 3.28
Ascot 4.15


4 shorter prices
5 bigger prices

Not going to stake a bet
At short odds in weak markets

The bigger priced options
Are mainly in difficult races



Leopardstown 1.50

£4.50 Each Way VOCITO 8/1-9/1

£1.00 Saver IRON SHERRIF 9/1
 
Wanted a crack at this Nursery
With 4 places lots of deadwood
It might just be too competitive




Stratford 3.28

DIAMOND GAIT 100/30-7/2

Each Way
 
An easier race on paper
With only 8 runners in this
But this is a mares handicap
Very easy to miss something
Not a race we could control
But she looks the class horse
And why she has been chosen
The annoying factor about this
The 5/1 was taken around 9.30



Ascot 4.15

NJORD 9/1 - 10/1
 
Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5
 
Been looking at this all week
Came down on an Irish raider
Who has strong handicap form
And failed a sire stat last time
Obviously this is a tough race
But a fair price with 5 places


DIAMOND GAIT

Looks the compromise bet
But the price is now shorter
And a non runner will hurt us



But the two other options

Both are in harder races

Than I'd usually stake in

Because of the price

Just a highlighted bet

5 Meetings tomorrow

Should offer us a bet






Friday's Review

Pleased with my form this week
I seem to be reading a lot right
SHARK TWO ONE the strongest
Won easily for the reasons given
Only one loser in the 8 previews
Seem to have the defences right
And managing to score some too
The Rishworthian bet an example
So pleasing on the eye yesterday
Felt that was a healthy message
Showed everything working well


 


PROFILES & PREVIEWS




Stratford 12.43

5/2 The Bull McCabe, 11/4 Barbados Buck's
5/1 Numitor, On Call, 14/1 Cape Robin, Frankie Baby
14/1 Sa Alors, Stadmallen, 20/1 Aim For Fame
66/1 Alright Chief, Justgivemeareason
100/1 Top Drawer.

Maiden Hurdle 2m 6f

THE BULL MACABE sets the standard
BARBADOS BUCK's the market danger

Could be a match
With the 3rd favourite
Failing a worrying statistic

ON CALL is a 7yo
Last seen under rules in 2019

October
Maiden Hurdles
2m 1f and more
Male Horses aged 7 or more
Absent more than 21 days
Have a 0-86 record in them
ON CALL fails this statistic
 
NUMITOR looks beatable
Long absence and 2 hurdle runs
Were at 100/1 and 50/1 last season

THE BULL MACABE is a 6yo
2 Hurdle runs both this year
Not strong objections to him

But he was 16/1 last time
In a Newton Abbot maiden hurdle
That hardly fills me with confidence

He may have the experience
And the guaranteed stamina as well

BARBADOS BUCK cost 200k
You would have to assume
Give the connections he comes from
They would not buy a run of the mill type
If he had ran in that Newton Abbot race
He would not have been a 16/1 chance
Hoping he has more class

Selection

BARBADOS BUCK  9/4

Win Bet






Stratford 1.13

6/4 My Way, 11/4 Peachey, 6/1 C'Est Le Bonheur
10/1 Now Is The Winter, 12/1 Filou Des Issards
20/1 Felton Bellevue,20/1  Le Tueur, 20/1 Tikanite
25/1 Potters Vision, The Quiet Don
200/1 Marie's Girl.

Maiden Hurdle 2m 6f

MY WAY

Far better horse
Than a 0-17 record suggests
Failed to win in 8 hurdle runs
Failed to win in 9 chase races
But has run in Graded races
Over both of these codes

He may be able to finally win
No problem with his profile
His opposition looks limited

October Maiden Hurdles
Any distance
Horses aged 8 or more
Have a poor 1-106 record
Not a good age in these races

C'EST LE BONHEUR is an 8yo
TIKANITE is also an 8yo
Not a safe age and rejecting both

PEACHEY has 693 days off

October Maiden Hurdles
Any distance
Horses absent over 469 days
Have a 0-72 record in them

July to December
Maiden Hurdles over 2m 4f +
Horses aged 6 or more
Under 4 career starts
Absent more than 346 days
Have a 0-121 record in them
PEACHEY shares this profile

MY WAY's two market rivals
Do not offer enough against him
Nothing safe down the betting


Selection

MY WAY 11/10-6/5-5/4

Win Bet





Ascot 1.20

11/10 Stradivarius, 5/1 Search For A Song
9/1 Fujaira Prince, 10/1 Dawn Patrol, Sovereign
14/1 Broome, Spanish Mission, 16/1 Morando
16/1 Trueshan, 40/1 Max Vega, Monica Sheriff
66/1 Dubious Affair, Mildenberger.

Long Distance Cup

Covered this a few times

STRADIVARIUS is very short
For a horse coming up from 12f
Having a hard race on heavy ground
In the Arc just 13 days before today

No past winner of this race
Won from 1m 4f or less (0-30)

SEARCH FOR A SONG a 4yo filly
Has raced only once in 83 days
BROOME has 134 days off
He has raced once in 16 months
He also comes from a 1m 4f race
Can we be sure he will stay 2m
With Acclamation as the damsire
Given his stamina index of 6.7f

Midweek Shortlist
 
SPANISH MISSION
DAWN PATROL
FUJAIRA PRINCE

SPANISH MISSION was named
As the horse I wanted to be with
But until I knew he was running
Was not prepared to back him

Well he is running
But the draw looks a fresh worry

Ascot 2m races
65 races since 2011
 
Horses drawn 13 + are 0-14
Horses drawn 12 + are 1-27
Horses drawn 11 + are 2-46

The highest draws
Do not have a great record

FUJAIRA PRINCE has stall 13
He was on my original shortlist
But that draw looks unhelpful

SPANISH MOON drawn in 12
Has a non positive draw too
And may want it a bit quicker

This now means
I won't be staking a main bet
Instead look for safer staking

Selection

£2.50 Each Way SPANISH MISSION 16/1

£2.50 Each Way DAWN PATROL 11/1-12/1







Leopardstown 1.50

11/2 Benaud, 13/2 Moonhall Girl
7/1 Hector De Maris 15/2 Shalaalaa, 9/1 Avagardner
9/1Vocito 10/1 Aleen Cust 11/1 Bell Ex One, 12/1 Halite
12/1 Iron Sheriff, 14/1 Catherine Chroi, 16/1 Dazzling Spirit
16/1 In The Attic, 20/1 Britzka, 28/1 Too Bright
33/1 Cornish Rock, 66/1 Cala Lady.

8f Nursery

Keeping away from lightweights
Horses with 8st 10lbs or less
Have a 0-32 record in past renewals

Several outsiders fail this
BELL EX ONE 14/1 one of those
She has drawn stall 17 as well

Leopardstown
8f race
Under 18 runners
Since 2011
Horses aged 2
Drawn 12 or more
Have a 0-32 record

Highest draws worry me here

You want a well handicapped type
Need one as so many are running
That may be why every past winner
Had under 7 previous races

MOONHALL GIRL has now had 7 runs
She may lacks improvement on others

SHALAALAA comes from a 6f race
Topweight and only 3 races doing it
Was not draw to that profile

AVAGARDNER is a filly from 6f
Her profile is nothing special

8f Nurseries on turf
Any time of year
Any class of race
More than 6 runners
Fillies from 6f or less
More than 8 career starts
Absent more than 8 days
Return a 0-37 record in them
AVAGARDNER fails this angle
None have won a similar nursery
With a profile like she has here

HECTOR DE MARIS is respected
Stall 16 may not help his chance
IN THE  ATTIC is drawn 15
Rated 68 will he have the class
To defy a wide draw and big field

Ideal profile

Under 7 runs
8st 11lbs or more
Drawn 10 or lower
Coming from 7f or 8f
Horses with this profile
Have a 7-31 record

Horses with this profile

VOCITO 9/1
ALEEN CUST 8/1
HALITE 16/1
IRON SHERRIF 12/1
DAZZLING SPIRIT 25/1
BRITZKA 25/1

BRITZKA not first choice
His numbers are not progressing
Figures suggest they may lack class

DAZZLING SPIRIT has 9st 7lbs
Can not see how she deserves that

BENAUD 5/1 is drawn 13
His draw kept him off the shortlist
Could easily win trained by Joseph
Who has won the last 3 renewals 
But not the safest of profiles

8f Nurseries
Class 5 or higher
Any time of year
Horses with under 5 runs
Coming up in distance
Running within 8 days
Have a 2-27 record in them
Both winners had 8st 6lbs or less
BENAUD has 9st 11lbs in this

HALITE has a chance

IRON SHERRIF has a chance

ALEEN CUST smells fancied
One or two worries with her though

Every 8f Nursery
Any class of race
Any time of year
Fillies up in distance
Running within 9 days
Under 4 career starts
Have a 0-4 record in them
Only 4 tried but all failed
And it just feels unorthodox
Inexperience but a recent run
It was only 6 days ago
She was starting 100/1 in a maiden

VOCITO gets the vote
On the ideal profile list
Started favourite last time out
When drawn 16 of 16 at the curragh
Experienced without being exposed

Selection
 
£4.50 Each Way VOCITO 8/1-9/1

£1.00 Saver IRON SHERRIF 9/1

 
 



Ascot 1.55

2/1 Dream Of Dreams, 5/1 One Master
7/1 Oxted 9/1 Starman, 11/1 Art Power, 12/1 Cape Byron
12/1 Lope Y Fernandez, 14/1 Glen Shiel, 16/1 Happy Power
16/1 Sonaiyla, 25/1 The Tin Man, 33/1 Onassis, 40/1 Jouska
40/1 Speak In Colours, 50/1 Brando, 66/1 Chiefofchiefs

Champions Sprint Stakes

Not the nicest of puzzles
Half the field look no hopers
Just trying to whittle it down

CAPE BRYON has a years absence
STARMAN only has 3 career starts
Drawn 17 he is far from inviting
SONAIYLA is a filly up from 5f

Past winners
Had the following runs that year

6 3 4 5 8 7 9 5 4 4
5 4 7 3 7 6 5 6 5 4 4

No winners had under 3 runs
OXTED has only had 2 races
He comes here absent 98 days
Don't want a 4yo absent that long

DREAM OF DREAMS has 3 runs
That would worry me for a 6yo
Stall 16 not guaranteed to help
And is the shortest priced horse
 
ONE MASTER is a 5yo Mare
Won in France over 7f last time
That was heavy ground
That was only 13 days ago

Hard to know what to expect
HAPPY POWER won over 7f
When last seen only 8 days ago
Another difficult to predict
 
One of the best trials
Haydock's Sprint Cup

DREAM OF DREAMS won that
But looking for a bigger price bet

Horses beaten in that race

ART POWER
GLEN SHIELD
LOPE Y FERNANDEZ

Betting two of them each way
Knowing just 1 needs to place

ART POWER could go well
Made him a negative last time

LOPE Y FERNANDEZ was too
Opposed him badly drawn there

Selection

£2.50 Each Way LOPE Y FERNANDEZ 12/1-14/1

£2.50 Each Way ART POWER 10/1 - 9/1


1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4
1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5 Skybet PPower






Stratford 2.18

5/4 Dariya, 11/4 Authorizo, 8/1 Eva's Diva
8/1 Homing Star, Ingenuity, 20/1 Test Valley
25/1 Test Ride, 33/1 Richie Valentine.

Selling Hurdle

The market has this right
Feel this could be a match

INGENUITY looks average
Running in low grade flat races
His hurdle runs back in 2019
Were disappointing and modest
Gordon Elliot also got rid of him
EVA'S DIVA ran only 9 days ago
Beaten 77 lengths is just too far
HOMING STAR is an older mare
Having had 9 hurdle races
Her career best R. Post Rating
Stands at a modest looking 86

DARIYA easily beats this
AUTHORIZO does as well
One of them should take this
Given the frame of the race
Going for the burglary bet

Selection

AUTHORIZO 3/1-11/4

Each Way






Market Rasen 2.46

11/10 Copperless, 2/1 Hooper, 7/1 Le Boulevardier
10/1 Black Abbey, 14/1 Pennine Cross, 16/1 New Moon
50/1 Geomatrician.

Maiden Hurdle (2m)

HOOPER has bumper form
Nicky Henderson trained 4yo
Connections improve confidence
He won last time out as well

Obviously there are risks
We don't know if he can jump
Could be useless for all we know

But the favourite in the races
Fails a very complex statistic
COPPERLESS may be wrong

September to November
Maiden Hurdles
Run over 2m 2f or less

Horses aged 5 or more
Running in the last 12 weeks
Under 3 career starts
Coming from a hurdle race
Run over 2m 2f or less

Horses with this profile
Had a horrible 2-421 record
Over 400 tried and just 2 won

Those running within 6 weeks
Returned an equally vile 1-386 record
Horses aged 5 in this record 0-233
COPPERLESS shares this profile

Many of these were not fancied
So I doubt 1-386 reflects his chance
But I can't bet her on that statistic

BLACK ABBEY flopped last time
He wants soft ground connections say
Not sure he will get that ground

Because of the favourite's profile
Feel we should go with the 4yo

Selection

HOOPER 5/4 - 11/8

Win Bet 





Stratford 3.28

3/1 Pogo I Am, 9/2 Getariver
5/1 Northern Princess 5/1 Valse Au Taillons
6/1 Diamond Gait, 7/1 Green Or Black
10/1 Fleursals, Tierra Verde.
  
Mares Handicap Hurdle (2m)

Small field
Interesting issues

October
Mares Handicap Hurdles
Run over 3m 3f and shorter
Horses with under 4 hurdle runs
Have a 0-34 record in these races

NORTHERN PRINCESS fails this
GETARIVER also has this problem
Both on the inexperienced side

GETARIVER comes from a chase
Horses beaten in a Chase last time
Have a 0-29 record at all distances

Similar races show
Horses aged 7 or more
Over 10 career starts
Absent more than 90 days
Have a modest 1-57 record
Those running over 2m of less
Have a 0-18 record in them
VALSE AU TAILLONS fails this
 
FLEURSALS is a 4yo
Weakest age group looks unsafe
Hammered on only run in months
TIERRA VERDE has a similar problem
Hammered on only run in months
Not safe enough as a 9 year old

Shortlisting 3 horses

POGO I AM
DIAMIND GAIT
GREEN OR BLACK

POGO I AM has a chance
But takes in her first handicap
Lightly raced and profile isn't safe
Not the biggest of horses either

GREEN OR BLACK very experienced
Should be suited to 2m on this ground
Plenty of 8 year olds like her win

DIAMOND GAIT should go well
More class than many of these
Ran in Listed class in bumpers
Ran in Graded class in hurdles
Won a bumper and a maiden hurdle
Won a Novice hurdle as well
Those exploits back in 2019
Left her badly handicapped off 131

She has a 0-6 record since then
Running herself fit after a break
As her handicap mark dropped 11lbs
Down in class today is an opportunity

Selection

DIAMOND GAIT 100/30-7/2

Each Way
 





Ascot 4.15

9/2 Raaeq, 7/1 King Ottokar, 8/1 Tempus
9/1 Alternative Fact, 10/1 Njord, 10/1 Keats
11/1 Raising Sand, 12/1 Orbaan, River Nymph
14/1 Bell Rock, 16/1 Blue Mist, 20/1 Kynren
20/1 Solid Stone, 25/1 Graignes, 25/1 Greenside
25/1 Prince Eiji, Ropey Guest, 33/1 Hortzadar
40/1 Symbolize, 50/1 Raakib Alhawa.
 
Balmoral Handicap (8f)

Looked at this midweek

RAAEQ is on a hat trick
Could just be improving past these
But hard to reply on his trainer
I'd rather have 6 runs than 5 runs
He is short enough at 5/1 anyway

The midweek shortlist
Has now been amended

Shortlist

BELL ROCK 10/1
KING OTTOKAR 8/1
TEMPUS 7/1
ALTERNATIVE FACT 12/1

The draw is difficult to read
Before last year I'd say low middle
But the 1st 2nd in last year's race
Came from stall 21 and stall 20

ALTERNATIVE FACT drops in trip
He is a 5yo with a recent run
Can't match a similar 5yo winning
And Ed Dunlop is usually best ignored

KING OTTAKER is drawn 22
Can't be sure but worries me

Ascot 8f races
Since 2011
Under 28 runners
Horses drawn 22 or more
Had a 0-32 record in them
KING OTTAKER fails this
He also has 35 days off

All 6 past winners
Ran within the previous 3 weeks
Horses absent longer are 0-41

Which leads me to this angle

Ascot 8f races
Since 2011
Under 28 runners
Horses drawn 18 or more
Absent more than 18 days
Have a 0-78 record in them
KING OTTAKER fails this

BLUE MIST also fails this
ORBANN fails this as well

TEMPUS drops from 9f
BELL ROCK drops from 9f
Both ran in the Cambridgeshire

Similar races show
One horses like them won
Could not make either a negative
BELL ROCK looked unsafe to me
With just 1 run now in 81 days

TEMPUS my preference of the two
He makes the final staking plan
 
NJORD interests me

Opposed him 2 runs ago
When 6/1 in the Irish Cambridgeshire
He was being asked too much
Had to overcome big weight angles
When he was going up in distance

Ignore his last run
When favourite in a 9f Listed race
 
Has some serious runs this season
Too big a price for a horse like him
None of his sires runners
Won over 9f or more in Pattern races
On pedigree that was too far for him
Down in trip and down in Grade
He is much safer on breeding stats


TEMPUS 8/1

Was considered as a £1 Saver
May have used that in a staked bet

Selection

NJORD 9/1 - 10/1
 
Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5

*********************************************************
*********************************************************