Mathematician 2624
Thursday May 18th
11 Races discussed
1 Staked Bet
Heavy message for a Thursday
Turned out far busier than I expected
Interesting day with plenty to read
Just hope I have not overcooked it
But the main issue today
Is how fast things are changing
Today's Bet
Salisbury 2.45 SANS SOUCI BAY 7/4
Clonmel 7.00 - VANISHING POINT 6/4
£3 Win Bet on Both Horses
£2 Each Way Double on Both
Things are changing very fast
I have lost one potential bet
Non runners affecting things all the time
I've just changed the 1.40pm preview
The favourite pulled out minutes ago
Just lost my 2.20 selections minutes ago
Because of issues like this
I have gone with an each way double
But staked this Win Win Each Way Double
Taking a safer option given conditions
Many races will look different later on
I would rather have gone no bet
I will be annoyed if we have a loser
But I wanted to go back to the account
But compromised by having a safe stake
As nothing seems safe given the weather
Ignore all that and the decision making problems
And it should be an enjoyable message
The Top of the message is ugly
It has had too much plastic surgery
Swapping bets about after non runners
TODAY'S MESSAGE
York 4 Previews
Salisbury 4 Previews
Clonmel 2 Previews
Perth 1 Preview
York has 4 previews
Reluctant to commit there on a tough card
Salisbury has 4 previews
Not a track I like and it has gone soft there
But I wanted to cover the Claimer there
Two Apprentice races there are quite playful
Perth has 1 preview more than it deserves
Clonmel has two fascinating maiden hurdles
This message will have a fair share of losers
It gets involved in a few risky areas
Salisbury 2.45
£8 Win Bet SANS SOUCI BAY 7/4
£1 Win Bet MADAME PRANCEALOT 9/1
£1 Win Bet LUDUAMF 10/1
I think Sans Souci Bay is a banker
I don't fancy the savers at all
These are the 4th and 5th favourites
They are there for 2 reasons
The 3rd and 4th favourites are unsafe
The favourite may not handle the ground
I think Sans Souci Bay will handle it
And could still win even if he doesn't
But I am happy with £8 and £1 -£1
Clonmel 5.30
NICARAGUA 9/2
Each Way
Willie Mullins has an odds on favourite
My angles say take her on
We have been in this dark place before
This looks a great bet on paper
When I watch her I can see she has ability
She doesn't look as strong as I'd like
Looked lightly framed to an untrained eye
So a bit nervous about that but looks good
She should be favourite on my angles
Clonmel 7.00
CONNA CROSS 100/30
VANISHING POINT 6/4
Not many can win this
Conna Cross is no worldbeater
But these are the only two I can consider
CONNA CROSS each way is an option
But only a low grade handicapper
I'd rather have VANISHING POINT on side
And after further reflection
Prefer the each way double I am going for
I am wondering how safe the Clonmel races are
How both races might look after several more hrs
I am thinking this bet for myself
Salisbury 2.45 - Sans Souci Bay 7/4
Epsom Oaks - Rhodedendrom 13/8
That is the best I like best of all
But more my style than a lot of peoples
In the end I decided to have an each way double
Borrow Selections from the 2.45 and 7.00 races
WEDNESDAYS SUMMARY
Two previews yesterday
I chose the 2.55pm for the best bet
MUNTADAB each way with 2 savers
He ran a great race in second place
Looked like winning and went 1.34 in running
Just mowed down late by a 25/1 outsider
No damage done and a good run for our stake
The other race saw Brando finish in last place
He bled from the nose according to reports
Obviously I chose the right one of the two
In what was a very uneventful message
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
SALISBURY 1.40
4/1 Bodybuilder, 6/1 Luna Eclipse
13/2 Jim Rockford, 7/1 Zalshah, 14/1 Joegogo,
20/1 Cabanon Bay 25/1 Devil Or Angel,
25/1 Gaelic Spirit, 25/1 Hastenplace
33/1 Reverberation, 50/1 Cranworth Phoenix
50/1 Youkan.
5f Novice race
Not many 5f Salisbury races these days
The draw stats say stalls 3-10 are best
Heavy rain may help the experienced types
If handling the ground may well win
GAELIC SPIRIT is sired by Fast Company
His unraced 5f runners so far are 0-52
JIM ROCKFORD appeals each way
2nd best on the numbers
Has the most experience as well
Selection
JIM ROCKFORD 3/1
Each Way
PERTH 2.00
6/4 Enzani, 5/1 Ballyhowne, 6/1 Dance Of Fire
Mr Grumpy, 8/1 Henpecked, 10/1 Boogie Life
20/1 Outlaw Josey Wales, 25/1 Adsup, Uluroo
33/1 Lastin' Memories, 40/1 Painters Lad
100/1 Lucky Boo.
This race is unpleasant
ENZANI could be different class
Can we really trust ENZANI ?
When he has not raced in 297 days
Look at his trainer John C McConnell
His horses with 4 or more career starts
Have a 1-115 record when absent 100 + days
Have a 0-96 record when absent over 140 days
There is no palatable option
I am going to play it this way
Selection
Low Stakes
£6 Win Bet MR GRUMPY 5/1
£4 Win Bet ENZANI 11/8
YORK 2.20
6/1 Duke Of Firenze, 13/2 East Street Revue
7/1 Love On The Rocks, 9/1 Gamesome, 10/1 Fast Act
12/1 Robot Boy, 12/1 Justice Good, Line Of Reason
14/1 Soie D'Leau, 16/1 Mont Kiara, Move In Time
16/1 Orient Class, Poyle Vinnie, 20/1 Snap Shots
25/1 Rasheeq, 33/1 Tumblewind, Union Rose.
This is a Class 2 Handicap over 5f
9 renewals of this race
34 similar races at this time of year
Looked at the Draw
Stalls 17-18-19 are unacceptable
None have won any 5f race in years
5f races at York since 2011
Horses drawn 17 or more are 0-77
SOIE D'LEAU is out drawn 17
His profile is nothing special anyway
Since 2015
5f races at York
10 or more runners
There are 25 of these races
Horses drawn 10 or lower are 24-252
Horses drawn 11 or higher are 1-132
Horses aged 4 or more
Drawn 11 or higher have a 0-89 record
High Drawn horses look very unsafe
In light of that I am against stalls 14-15-16 too
TUMBLEWIND and RASHEEQ are drawn too high
EAST STREET REVUE is drawn 13
This race has been dominated
By horses aged 6 or more
Horses aged 4 or 5 have a 1-66 record in 9 renewals
The last 48 horses aged 4-5 to try have failed
EAST STREET REVUE is only a 4yo
Drawn 13 he looks a little disadvantaged
I ran his sire stats over 5f on soft ground in Class 2 +
All his sires runners under these conditions are 0-18
MONT KIARA is a 4yo
Not my first choice because of his age
FAST ACT is an unlikely winner first time
In 34 races horses aged 5
Absent more than 3 weeks were only 1-48
That winner was lighter raced than he is
SNAP SHOTS has the same problem
He has just downgraded stables
Not for me without a run in several months
JUSTICE GOOD is 5 absent 47 days
Thats a tough absence more than most 5yo winners
UNION ROSE didn't do enough 6 days ago
34 similar races profuced 8 seasonal debutants
They won from marks of 88 92 86 86 90 97 95 90
MOVE IN TIME rated 100 may have too much on
Don't want a 9yo seasonal debutant anyway
DUKE OF FIRENZE won this last year
He did it last year off a rating of 90
This year a much harder task off 103
He had more warm up runs last year as well
And a better draw last year as well
LINE OF REASON is fit and the right type
He will want the ground faster though
If you look at his sire Kheleyf
His runners over 5f on softer than good
When in Class 2 or higher have a 0-38 record
My Breeding stats raise a doubt about him
POYLE VINNIE has positives
His rating of 103 is going to test him
His runs in Handicaps when rated 99 or more
Have a produced only a 0-16 record so far
Horses that raced off 101 or more were 1-25
Those that raced off 102 or more were 2-53
Guy feeling is it is asking too much of him
ROBOT BOY has this problem rated 102
He does have runs this year to compensate
ORIENT CLASS is up 2 grades in Class
Exposed and never raced in this class before
But I can find a winner like him
Older exposed types with recent runs do well
GAMESOME is another sharing that profile
Well drawn and numbers suggest he is well treated
NON RUNNER
Selection
£5 Win Bet ORIENT CLASS 7/1
£5 Win Bet ROBOT BOY 8/1
SALISBURY 2.45
7/4 Sans Souci Bay, 4/1 Black Bubba
5/1 Compton Lane, 6/1 Luduamf,
12/1 Madam Prancealot, 20/1 Dravid
20/1 Jackman 25/1 Jenji.
7F Claiming race for 3 year olds
There are 17 races in May
BLACK BUBBA is opposed
Looked at him many times in the past
Concluded some time ago he doesn't stay 7f
He also has a 152 day absence
Look at the 17 similar Claiming races
All 17 winners ran within 31 days
Horses absent over 31 days were 0-44
BLACK BUBBA fails this angle as well
Both outsiders also fail the absence stats
DRAVID was beaten too far too recently
MADAME PRANCEALOT is not well weighted
Only a small horse She looks beatable
COMPTON LANE can't be ruled out
But he has to come from a 5f race
None of the 17 winners managed that
That does put me off him
LUDUAMF isn't running great numbers
He looks the stable second string
Wouldn't rule him out completely
SANS SOUCI BAY has an outstanding chance
The one doubt is will soft ground suit
Hard to know either way
Both his parents won on soft ground
I have to give him the benefit of the doubt
When his 2 main rivals have problems
Selection
£8 Win Bet SANS SOUCI BAY 7/4
£1 Win Bet MADAME PRANCEALOT 9/1
£1 Win Bet LUDUAMF 10/1
YORK 3.30
3/1 Crystal Ocean, 7/1 Rekindling
15/2 Benbatl, 8/1 Exemplar, 14/1 Wolf Country
14/1 Permian, 14/1 Swiss Storm, 16/1 Syphax
16/1 Forest Ranger, 33/1 Contrapposto
The Dante is rarely clear cut
Far more competitive than usual this year
And Cracksman pulling out has shaken things up
CRYSTAL OCEAN has been gambled
The steam has ran out of that move
I think there could be too much competition
REKINDLING has the best numbers
There is a problem with his chance
Since 2010 there have been 80 races here
80 races over this distance with 8 + runners
Horses drawn 1 or in the lowest stall were 1-80
That worries me a lot as there is a quick bend
REKINDLING could be cut off at the 1st bend
EXEMPLAR has had a setback recently
May need the run more than would be ideal
FOREST RANGER fails my breeding stats
His sire has no winners over this far
In this class on ground softer than good
SYPHAX may not have enough class
PERMIAN has 3 runs this season
No past winner of this had that profile
SWISS STORM may struggle to get home
Shortlist
WOLF COUNTRY - Saver material
BENBATI has positives
Selection
£4.50 Each Way BENBATI 7/2
£1 Win Bet WOLF COUNTRY 11/1
SALISBURY 4.55
3/1 Edge, 9/2 Panther Patrol, 7/1 Frantical
8/1 Intimately, 8/1 Danecase, 10/1 Rafaaf
10/1 Mezzotint, 14/1 Locommotion
16/1 Pc Dixon, 20/1 Gatillo, 33/1 Flying Sakhee
This is a 7f Apprentice Handicap
Salisbury has 11 renewals of this race
This is the profile you want
Last race within 21 days
Horses that did not have that were 0-44
You want a horse from 6f 7f 8f last time
Horses with under 11 runs are 0-26
You want a horse with at least 11 runs
Horses aged 4 and 6 are best
Horses aged 5 have a 0-30 record
10 of the 11 winners had 2 + runs this year
These angles point to these 2 horses
Selection
Small Stakes
£4 Each Way PANTHER PATROL 5/1
£2 Win Bet INTIMATELY 9/1
YORK 5.05
4/1 Taifbalady, 9/2 Makanah, 5/1 Global Tango
5/1 Zap, 11/2 Vj Day, 8/1 Red Force One
10/1 Dontgiveuponbob, New Empire
2YO Maiden Over 6f
Requires a guess of course
I ran some breeding stats
Sires with horses over 6f or more
First time out on softer ground
TAIFBALADY's sire had a poor 1-82 record
I think we need to look elsewhere
Horses sired by Mayson
Have a 0-9 record under these circumstances
MAKANAH is sired by Mayson
ZAP is also sired by Mayson
Both horses have to overcome a breeding angle
Not a strong one but none from their sire have yet
No strong objections to the following
GLOBAL TANGO
NEW EMPIRE
RED FORCE ONE
But equally not many positives
And you can not shortlist them all
Shortlist
VJ DAY could be a threat
DONTGIVEUPONBOB - Good debut run
Selection
Small Stakes
£4 Each Way DONTGIVEUPONBOB 8/1
£2 Win Bet VJ DAY 4/1
SALISBURY 5.25
3/1 Lucky Louie, 6/1 Frozen Lake, 7/1 Bingo George
8/1 Virile, 8/1 Greyfriarschorista, Many Dreams
10/1 Captain Marmalade, Vincenzo Coccotti
12/1 Quintus Cerialis, 20/1 Bella's Venture, Cloud Nine
This is a 7f Apprentice Handicap
Division 2 of the 4.55pm race
The same angles apply
Salisbury has 11 renewals of this race
This is the profile you want
Last race within 21 days
Horses that did not have that were 0-44
You want a horse from 6f 7f 8f last time
Horses with under 11 runs are 0-26
You want a horse with at least 11 runs
Horses aged 4 and 6 are best
Horses aged 5 have a 0-30 record
10 of the 11 winners had 2 + runs this year
VIRILE survives these angles
Ran badly though just 6 days ago
That run damages his profile
GREYFRIARSCHORISTA has positives
But 0-27 on Grass and not raced on it since 2013
LUCKY LOUIE has the strongest chance
I want to play it this way
Selection
Small Stakes
£8.00 Win Bet LUCKY LOUIE 5/2
£1.00 Win Bet GREYFRIARSCHORISTA 8/1
CLONMEL 5.30
8/11 Lareena, 9/2 Nicaragua, 6/1 Is She Diesel
8/1 Alabama Rose, 14/1 Ask The Diviner, 16/1 Turasoir
20/1 Maudlin Magdalen, 25/1 Annagassan, French Elegance
33/1 Sylvi, 33/1 Horsenjockey, Our Pocket Rocket
50/1 Grange Cailin, 66/1 Annies Ann, Dancing Rhythm
66/1 French Quarter, Jerigo, Slievenamon.
Mares Maiden Hurdle
LAREENA is a 4yo
Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh
May or may not be good enough
She has 3 runs all abroad
All 3 were over 398 days ago
When you look at the record of 4 year olds
It makes you wonder why she is favourite
Other than on the reputation of connections
May
Mares Maiden Hurdles
Any Distance
Horses aged 4 have a 3-84 record
Those absent over 2 months were 0-14
Those with under 7 career starts were 0-55
LAREENA fails these 0-14 and 0-55 angles
April May June
Mares Maiden Hurdles
Any Distance
Horses aged 4 have a 16-239 record
Those absent over 2 months were only 1-45
Those with under 5 career starts were only 1-119
That winner came in a small field
Horses aged 4 are disadvantaged
On the evidence of these results
I am looking elsewhere
LAREENA only cost 22,000 Euros
So is not a very expensive French recruit
ASK THE DIVINER is out from a Bumper
Especially well beaten in that recently
Shortlist
IS SHE DIESEL has 268 days off
Not like a winner because of that
ALABAMA ROSE ran 13 days ago
She was beaten 22 lengths in that hurdle race
I would have liked a better last run
Profile wise it is weak for this reason
ALABAMA ROSE has raced just once since October
NICARAGUA has a neutral profile
But She has recent hurdle runs
Respectable numbers and big field form
She should go close to winning
Selection
NICARAGUA 9/2
Each Way
YORK 5.35
3/1 Graceland, 7/1 Mr Cripps, 8/1 Gaelic Tiger, Grumeti
9/1 Kajaki, 10/1 On Fire, 12/1 Gabrial's Star, Saved By The Bell
14/1 Blue Hussar, Silva Eclipse, 16/1 Buonarroti, Ice Galley
20/1 Tatting, 25/1 Injam.
2m Handicap
Does not deserve a huge preview
Decided not to go with GRACELAND
Hard to be sure but could be on the bounce
GAELIC TIGER with 3 runs wasn't safe enough
I ruled out the lowest drawn horses
Played with a few other angles
Ended up with a shortlist of 3 horses
KAJAKA 11/1
ON FIRE 11/1
ICE GALLEY 20/1
CLONMEL 7.00
11/10 Vanishing Point, 9/2 Conna Cross, 5/1 Aherlow
10/1 Walkers Point, 12/1 Louie The Second, 14/1 Alamgiyr
16/1 Lucky Robin, 20/1 Charlie Brown, 25/1 Mister Minor
50/1 Mister Buddy.
Maiden Hurdle over 2m 3f
Few can win this
Weakest link in the market leaders
Has to be the once raced ABERLOW
Maiden Hurdles in May
Any and every distance
Horses with 1 career start
Running within 90 days
Beaten over 18 lengths last time
Have a 0-91 record
ABERLOW is hard to like on that run
WALKERS POINT has 1 run in 7 months
Hammered 52 lengths in that run 16 days ago
Asking a lot to get competitive here
CONNA CROSS looks solid
Decent numbers and experienced
VANISHING POINT also a positive
Option 1
CONNA CROSS 100/30 Each Way
That is a beautiful bet on one level
Getting on could be a headache though
Weak markets all sorts of carnage could happen
Option 2
£6 Win Bet CONNA CROSS 100/30
£4 Win Bet VANISHING POINT 6/4
This alternative strategy has pro's and cons
Much will come down to the market
How easy the bets are to get on
Selection
£6 Win Bet CONNA CROSS 100/30
£4 Win Bet VANISHING POINT 6/4
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Best Wishes
Guy Ward
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk