Mathematician 3464
Saturday February 22nd

 

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1 Account Bet
0 Highlighted Bet

 

Account Bet

 

Kempton 4.10

 

MYSTICAL CLOUDS 7/1

 

Each Way

 

 

 

Today's Message

 

Newcastle is abandoned
We have lost the Eider Chase
Planning a bet all week on this
Disappointing we are losing this

 

Kempton 12.40
Fairyhouse 1.45
Fairyhouse 2.17
Kempton 3.02
Kempton 3.35
Lingfield 3.50
Fairyhouse 4.02
Kempton 4.10

 

We still have 8 other races
There is a case for another bet
Have a couple of smart profiles

 

Alpha Des Obeaux

 

So delighted he runs in Ireland
Been shouting up his chances
In F.B.A for the Grand National
Backed him and love his chance
So important he has today's run
Nearly made him a saver today
But it is Aintree the main target
The 33/1 such a generous price

 

Ferny Hollow

 

Runs in the Fairyhouse Bumper
Mentioned him a few times too
If he wins this as he should do
Could be a very serious threat
To the Cheltenham Bumper fav

 

Anyone who feels in the mood
For a dirty odds on win double
Might like to consider this pair

 

Lingfield 2.40 - Bombshell 4/7
Fairyhouse 5.12 - Ferny Hollow 1/2
Win Double

 

My angles like these 3 bets

 

Lingfield 3.50

 

£6 Win Bet GORING 5/1-11/2

 

£4 Win Bet ALMUFTI 6/4

 

 

 

Fairyhouse 2.17

 

BAJAN EXCELL 10/3 - 7/2 - 4/1

 

Each Way

 

 

Kempton 4.10

 

MYSTICAL CLOUDS 7/1

 

Each Way

 

 

Plan A
The Eider Chase bet
Fallen to the weather

 

Plan B
Fairyhouse 2.17
Bajan Excell 4/1
Each Way

 

Pound for Pound
Bajan Excell is my best bet

 

I'd have liked to stake him
But the market is very weak

 

Going with Plan C instead
Wanted to make that clear

 

 

 

The Lingfield race
Does have my kind of angles
But a lot could go wrong here
With witchcraft and sorcery

 

BAJAN EXCELL runs in a race
Where every one of his rivals
Seems to have a dodgy profile
The case against this as a bet
Weak market only a 4yo hurdle
He is priced up 10/3 - 7/2 - 4/1
Half the firms shorter than 4/1
Don't want to end up 5/2 here
Still feel he is the best bet

 

MYSTICAL CLOUDS
This is a harder race
Would be a less likely winner
But he is a much bigger price
He has by far the best profile
The one that normally wins it
Mirrored by 11 of the last 12
To have won this race before

 

It was not what I planned for

 

But Sundays cards are grim

 

Just 3 meetings
One is a jumpers bumper

 

Can't be sure to find a bet
I feel we should play today

 

The 3 bets above
Whilst not the Eider Chase bet
Are more than just sloppy seconds

 

 

 

Fridays Review

 

Took few chances yesterday
Abandoned by day's best bet
The price collapsed earlier on
Pleased he won despite that
Some would have been on it
The replacement bet did well
No damage placed each way
There were a couple of duds
Got the Devon National winner
So we more than held our own

 

 

 

PROFILES & PREVIEWS

 

Kempton 12.40

 

9/2 Downtown Getaway, 11/2 Palmers Hill
7/1 Howling Milan, 8/1 Our Power, 8/1 Polish
8/1 Storm Arising 12/1 Larkbarrow Lad
14/1 Marlborough Sounds 16/1 Midnightreferendum
16/1 Earth Moor, 16/1 Top Man, 20/1 Twenty Twenty
20/1 Misty Bloom, 25/1 Roseriver Has, 33/1 Eclat Des Mottes,
33/1 No Hidden Charges, 40/1 Kuiper Belt.

 

2m 5f Handicap Hurdle

 

Take a decent horse to win this
Quite often one that is laid out

 

PALMERS HILL has 461 days off
Can not be a negative despite that
Even if trained by Jonjo O'Neill
Several past winners had absences

 

I'd stay with lighter raced horses
Ideally with under 12 hurdle races

 

Horses with 11 + hurdle runs
Beaten last time out
Have a 0-35 record in this
The following horses fail this
TWENTY TWENTY - MISTY BLOOM
KUIPER BELT - ROSERIVER HAS

 

NO HIDDEN CHARGES is wrong
No past winners dropped in trip
TOP MAN bottomweight rated 118
That may be too low to win this race

 

Ideally I'd want 4-11 hurdle runs
Horses with under 4 hurdle runs
Have a 1-31 record in this race

 

POLISH only has 2 hurdle runs
That may be too inexperienced
The 2015 winner had 2 hurdle runs
But that was in a much smaller field
And he came from a top stable too
EARTH MOOR has 3 hurdle runs
Do not see that as a positive profile
His Jockey yet to ride a hurdle winner
MALBOROUGH SOUNDS is a 5yo
Not for me with just 3 hurdle runs
ECLAT DES MOTTES looks wrong
Having downgrading stables recently
The only female winners of this
Ran within the previous 17 days
MIDNIGHT REFERENDUM fails this
Would not make her first choice
LARKBARROW LAD Is rated 134
More than all previous winners
And has raced just once in months

 

Shprtlist

 

PALMERS HILL has 4 career runs
Fewer than almost all previous winners
And don't feel I can trust him enough

 

OUR POWER a respectable chance
What worries me after 8 hurdle runs
Alan King let him go back in October
And has has raced once in 134 days

 

HOWLING MAN has to be respected
Other than falling last time a safe profile
Small stable no wins for 8 weeks as well

 

STORM ARISING has 8 career runs
All over hurdles not too bad a profile

 

DOWNTOWN GETAWAY is interesting
Top stable expensive £350k purchase
Smells like he has been laid out here
His 84 day break not a major concern
Happy to ignore his seasonal debut
Henderson thinks he is Graded class
Was fancied for last years Ballymore
Tempting but the biggest problem
Not the biggest lacks size and scope
That's the only reason not to bet him

 

The 4 Places and even 5 with so firms
Does tempt me to overlook this issue
It's a nice cushion from a top stable
The positives outweigh the negatives
But his lack of size
Would stop me staking him as a bet

 

Selection

 

DOWNTOWN GETAWAY 4/1

 

Each Way

 

1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5
1/4 Odds 1-2-3-4

 

 

 

 

Fairyhouse 1.45

 

3/1 Zihuatanejo, 4/1 Behind The Curtain, 9/2 Silk Worm
5/1 Hesamanofhisword, 8/1 Funky Dady, 10/1 Barnaviddaun
10/1 Big Debates, 12/1 Don Magnifica, 14/1 Surfing Tenor
20/1 I'm So Busy, 33/1 Daring Disciple, 50/1 Getaway Lucy
66/1 Happie Days.

 

2m Maiden Hurdle

 

ZIHUATENEJO unraced under rules
Looked a horse I should oppose here

 

That said
He won a point to point 13 days ago
Was apparently impressive doing this
I don't want to underestimate him

 

Looked at the each way options
BEHIND THE CURTAIN is clearly one
But a stiff track on heavy ground
Worried he is not a very big horse

 

HESAMANOFHISWORD is fancied
Another potential each way option
But he has 114 days absence
Comes from a small low scoring yard
They last had a winner 492 days ago
In the previous 5 seasons
Their hurdlers have a 1-112 record
Hardly a stable we can rely upon
DON MAGNIFICA has a long absence
SURFING TENNON the same problem
I'M SO BUSY hard to like on his debut
BIG DEBATES offers little

 

SILK WORK is a lightly raced mare
She has to drop down 5f in distance
Can not match her to any winners

 

FUNKY DADY has a small chance

 

BARNAVIDDAUN may go very well
Although he comes from bumpers
He has had a hurdle run before
Racing Post Rating of 107 there
That was on heavy at this track too
Very creditable on his first ever run

 

Beaten in a bumper next time
He was clearly on the bounce there

 

Then he went up to 2m 4f
Ran into the top class Appreciate It
Ran into another smart horse last time
When down 4f with a 7lbs claimer
BARNAVIDDAUN is risky
But does have some positives

 

Small Stake race
Going to play it this way

 

Selection

 

£7.50 Win Bet BARNAVIDDAUN 6/1 2nd - Close but no cigar

 

£2.50 Win Bet ZIHUATENEJO 3/1 +

 

 

 

 

 

Fairyhouse 2.17

 

5/2 Battle Of Wills, 100/30 Gamin Original
5/1 Bajan Excell, 13/2 Anna Bunina, 8/1 Burning Victory
8/1 Georgette Fun, 10/1 Hook Up, Van Meegeren
14/1 Gjoumi, 50/1 Great Bear.

 

4yo Hurdle

 

Running my angles in this race
They are pushing me one way

 

BAJAN EXCELL 4/1

 

Not completely convinced
No winners came from a handicap

 

My angles show

 

Past winners of this race
Had the following Hurdle runs
4 6 2 6 3 3 4 8 4 2 2 5 2 4
Horses with 1 hurdle run
Have a poor 0-20 record in this

 

BATTLE OF WILLS has this problem
And has raced just once in months
ANNA BUNINA also fails this angle
She is a filly with just 1 hurdle run
She has raced just once in months
BURNING VICTORY has a long break
And has no hurdling experience

 

GAMIN ORIGINAL has 2 career runs
He has no hurdling experience either
We know every past winner
Had at least 2 previous hurdle runs

 

Past winners
Had the following lifetime starts
13 4 3 14 14 6 6 14 11 9 12
None of them had under 3 races
GAMIN ORIGINAL only has 2 runs

 

GJOUMI has the same problem
Just 1 career start and 317 days off
HOOK UP is a filly absent 324 days
She could be the stable 3rd string
GEORGETTE FUN is a 4yo filly
No market support absent 88 days
VAN MEEGEREN is hard to like
From a small low scoring stable
Without a winner in several months
Starting 100/1 last time out as well

 

In light of all the negatives
My angles push me towards this bet

 

Selection

 

BAJAN EXCELL 7/2-4/1-9/2

 

Each Way

 

 

 

 

 

Kempton 3.02

 

2/1 Buzz, 4/1 Highway One O Two, 5/1 West Cork
6/1 Benson, 8/1 Faire Part Sivola, 9/1 Kid Commando
12/1 Bathsheba Bay, Garry Clermont, 200/1 Calgary Tiger.

 

Dovecote Hurdle

 

Tight race with several fancied
Previous winners of this race
Had the following hurdle starts
4 3 2 2 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 22

 

None have won in recent years
With just 1 previous hurdle race
All 31 that tried were beaten here

 

BENSON has this problem
KID COMMANDO has this problem

 

HIGHWAY ONE appears fancied
Will appeal each way to many people
My only issue is his 48 day absence
Does not sound a lot to be fair
But it is the longest absence here
And past renewals since 1998 show
Horses aged 5
Absent over 29 days
Have a 0-35 record in this race
Thats why he is not my choice

 

FAIR PART SIVOLA has a chance
Just there are other horses here
That are older with experience
And come from top draw stables

 

BUZZ one of those looks
Exposed with his flat form
Strongly considered as a saver

 

Horses with over 13 career runs
Who have under 5 hurdle starts
Have a 0-17 record in this race
BUZZ has this against him
But few that failed were fancied
And several went close to winning

 

WEST CORK has a good profile
Multiple 6yo winners of this
Have had under 6 runs like him

 

Selection

 

WEST CORK 6/1

 

Each Way

 

 

 

 

Kempton 3.35

 

5/1 Adrien Du Pont, 6/1 Just A Sting, 8/1 Black Corton
8/1 Whatmore, 9/1 Double Shuffle, 9/1 Talkischeap
10/1 Dashing Perk, 10/1 Kildisart, 10/1 Sametegal
12/1 Mister Malarky 14/1 Highway One O One
16/1 Crievehill, 25/1 Azzerti, Romain De Senam.

 

Graded Handicap Chase

 

Twice covered this race
Full preview sent yesterday
So need to repeat the work

 

Shortlisted 3 overnight

 

WHATMORE
JUST A STING
ADRIEN DU PONT

 

WHATMORE has 4 chase runs
The most progression of those
But of the previous 24 winners
Only 2 had under 5 chase starts
Inexperienced with only 4 runs
Stable reliability a big factor too

 

BLACK CORTON seems popular
But found a stat undermining him

 

Graded Handicap Chases
With 6 or more runners
Any distance
Any time of year
Since 2007

 

Horses Aged 10 or younger
Having over 18 chase runs
Absent more than 6 weeks
Carrying 11st 1lbs or more
Have a 0-66 record in them
BLACK CORTON fails this

 

Presents me with a dilemma
As I like that he is the class horse
Last time out Racing Post Ratings
BLACK CORTON is miles clear

 

So respecting the positives
Also respecting the profiles
Decided to split stake this
And make him a place saver

 

Feels a sensible compromise

 

Win Bet
Place Bet

 

Selection

 

£5 Win Bet ADRIEN DU PONT 6/1

 

£5 Place Bet BLACK CORTON 6/4 WON

 

 

 

 

 

Lingfield 3.50

 

11/8 Almufti, 5/1 Arcanada, Habub,
6/1 Goring, Spirit Warning, 10/1 Zhui Feng.

 

8f Handicap (Class 2)

 

4 of these 6 horses
Seem to be very short of runs

 

HABUB has 1 run in 137 days
Has to step up 2f in distance too

 

ARCANADA has 1 run in 131 days
May not be easy as a 7 year old
ZHUI FENG has the same problem
With just the 1 run in 147 days
SPIRIT WARNING has 1 run in 161 days

 

In the same period
These horses have been busier

 

ALMUFTI - 5 runs
GORING - 5 runs

 

Feel the split stake
Has to be the right play

 

Selection

 

£6 Win Bet GORING 6/1 WON 8/1 SP

 

£4 Win Bet ALMUFTI 6/4

 

 

 

 

 

Fairyhouse 4.02

 

9/4 Alpha Des Obeaux, 3/1 Bellshill
7/2 Acapella Bourgeois, 6/1 Voix Du Reve
7/1 Sub Lieutenant, 10/1 Pleasant Company.

 

BobbyJo Chase

 

Graded race 3m 1f

 

Small select field

 

SUB LIEUTENANT is 11 years old
Faces a nasty 297 day absence here
Don't see him as safe enough
Even though last years winner
Was also 11 and had a long absence

 

PLESANT COMPANY rejected aged 12

 

BELLSHILL ran 20 days ago
Beaten 61 lengths in a Grade 1
Hardly a safe profile after that run

 

The best profile

 

Horses from Handicaps
That were over 3m-3m1f
Have a 5-15 record in this race

 

ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS has this profile
ALPHA DES OBEAUX also has this profile

 

If you take this 5-15 profile

 

Horses from the Thyetes Chase
Run 30 days ago at Gowran Park
Have won 4 of these 5 races
They have a 4-13 record
Those not beaten too far there
By no more than 18 lengths
Have a 4-9 record in this race
Horses with the above profile
Won this in 2011 2014 2016 2017

 

ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS
By far the best profile horse
I made him a negative last time
Has to be a positive in this race

 

My biggest worry
He fails this breeding statistic

 

Horses sired by Network
Running over 3m 1f or more
Running in Class 2 or higher
Have a modest 1-50 record
On Ground softer than Good
They have a poor 0-31 record
ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS fails this

 

Should we forgive him that
Breeding stats would be fine at 3m
This is a small field as well
Inclined to overlook this problem

 

Selection

 

ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS 3/1

 

Win Bet

 

 

 

 

Kempton 4.10

 

7/4 Ibleo, 3/1 Keep Wondering, 7/1 Echiquier
7/1 Mystical Clouds, Templepark, 10/1 Favorito Buck's
12/1 Darebin, 20/1 Aintree My Dream, 33/1 Commandant.

 

Handicap Chase 2m 4f

 

Not really my kind of race
Was curious about a few things

 

IBLEO won 2 days ago
Normally I would be interested
But sired by sprinter Dick Turpin
Coming up 4 furlongs in distance
When an absent of only 2 days
Going to give him a miss
KEEP WONDERING is an option
Just he has had only 1 chase run
Every previous winner had more

 

12 renewals since 2008

 

11 of the 12 winners
Shared the same profile

 

Male horses aged 6-10
Running within 3 months
Over 6 lifetime races
2 -15 previous chase races
Carrying 11st 5lbs or more
Coming from Class 2-3 races

 

Horses with this profile
Have a smart 11-38 record
Winning 11 of the last 12 renewals

 

Two horses share this profile

 

AINTREE MY DREAM
MYSTICAL CLOUDS

 

If we add another angle
Horses who last time out
Were beaten under 16 lengths
That becomes a 10-25 profile
MYSTICAL CLOUDS shares this

 

Selection

 

MYSTICAL CLOUDS 7/1

 

Each Way

 

 

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