Mathematician 2701
Wednesday August 16th

9 Previews
1 Staked Bet

9 Races to discuss today
It was a slowly developing message
Ended up covering more than I expected
Lots of softer races mainly non handicaps
I personally hate the analysis today
It is quite a head spinning message
That offers too many staking options
Need some luck selecting the right bet

Today's Bet

Split Stake

Gowran Park 4.55

£5.50 Win QUIZZICAL 4/1

£4.50 Win MOUNT WELLINGTON 5/4- 11/8

What this basically means
We break level if Mount Wellington wins
If Quizzical wins we have a 7/4 winner
We lose if the others win
But most are unraced many fillies
And this pair have decent form
It was a choice of this Split stake bet
Or guessing an each way double

QUIZZICAL 4/1 almost everywhere
MOUNT WELLINGTON mainly 5/4
With 11/8 PPower + Betfair exchange

TODAY'S MESSAGE

9 Previews
Several selections in the message
Could be placed in each way doubles
Or in split stake bets as well
The staking often harder than the selections

I think it is a Wishy Washy Start
I fancy these two horses

Salisbury 2.20 ROGUE 5/2 Each Way

Beverley 3.40 - CHISWICK BEY 6/4 Win Bet

I could quite easily use them both together
Place them in an each way double

But there are many other bets as well
That could just as easily fulfill that role
The Gowran Park 4.55 is one of them

I could randomly pick out 2 horses
Stick them in an each way double
And feel confident of not losing

That is why I hate this message
Offers far too many choices of bet

I prefer a split stake bet today
And this is the bet I am staking

Gowran Park 4.55

£5.50 Win QUIZZICAL 4/1

£4.50 Win MOUNT WELLINGTON 5/4- 11/8

It just seems to Logical
I will be upset if something beats both

The other option for a bet

Mount Wellington 5/4
Chiswick Bey 11/8

Each Way Double

TUESDAY'S REVIEW

It was a one race message yesterdays
Focused on a Class 2 evening handicap
Didn't get the result I wanted in the race
The impressive winner failed my angles
Perhaps it was the falsely run race
Perhaps he is a proper Group horse
Whatever the reason that he won
It was enough to ensure that we did not

PROFILES & PREVIEWS

SALISBURY 1.50

5/4 Strategist, 5/1 Kick On Kick On,
6/1 Exceedingly Diva, 7/1 Chillala, Ornamental
14/1 Caviar Royale, 16/1 Solid Man, 20/1 Foxtrot Lady
33/1 Good Impression, 66/1 Quick Breath.

2YO Novice over 6f

The horse I wanted to avoid
Was KICK ON KICK ON the 2nd favourite
On the grounds he may not stay 6 furlongs
I opposed him last time on those grounds

STRATEGIST has to be favourite
Most likely winner but a bit too short
I'm wary about betting the Queen's horses
Many of these tend to underachieve
I am opposing the 2nd favourite
Staying with the Numbers horses
Split staking it on grounds of value

My first draft of selection was this

£5 Win Bet STRATEGIST 4/5 - 8/11
£5 Win Bet EXCEEDINGLY DIVA 7/1

The price on STRATEGIST is a bit skinny
That is putting me off the split stake bet

Thought about a match bet instead
EXCEEDINGLY DIVA to beat Kick On Kick On
The market will probably dictate the right bet
EXCEEDINGLY DIVA 11/10 to place is an option
I will leave that choice to you
See how the market goes later on
Just for the official record
I will go with the £5 Win £5 Win bet above

NEWTON ABBOT 2.00

9/4 Charlie Rascal, 3/1 The Raven Master,
6/1 Il Sicario, 15/2 Kereman, 8/1 Newt, 10/1 Kenyan
14/1 Born Legend, Skilful Lord, 20/1 Marettimo.

3yo Hurdle

THE RAVEN MASTER has 1 hurdle run
CHARLIE RASCAL has 1 hurdle run
Not much between this pair
On Racing post Hurdle rating
CHARLIE RASCAL comes out top
THE RAVEN MASTER is second
But he was the better flat horse
And has the better stable as well

Didn't see much I like behind them
KEREMAN is inexperienced and 2nd string
KENYAN's sire has no hurdle winners
IL SICARIO has a sire I'd see as weak
NEWT is a filly without hurdling experience
Fillies with No hurdle runs
Under 11 lifetime starts
Absent over 18 days are 0-35
NEWT shares that 0-35 profile
I can only select one of two horses
I went for the better flat horse and stable

Selection

THE RAVEN MASTER 2/1

Win Bet

SALISBURY 2.20

9/4 Rogue, 7/2 Laubali, 7/2 Lord Vetinari,
4/1 Buffer Zone, 10/1 Ragstone Road
12/1 Dance Emperor, 25/1 Makambe,
33/1 Insurgence, 50/1 The Great Dandini.

2yo Novice over 6f
ROGUE sets the standard so far
Racing Post Ratings of 82 78 74
Signs of temperament in his first 2 runs
He twice reared up when being saddled
Connections then had him Gelded
Hopefully it will have calmed him down
If it has we have a much better horse
He went to Glorious Goodwood last time
It was a difficult maiden on soft ground
I thought he had excuses in 4th place
He was entitled to have needed that run
He may not have liked the soft ground
His sire has never had a winner on soft
He may not have stayed 7f on soft ground
Coming down to 6f looks the right plan
Much depends on the Gelding helping him
No evidence of that on the numbers last time
But I think the excuses account for that
Much depends on what opposition he faces

LAUBALI 6/1 has never raced before
BUFFER ZONE 5/1 has never raced before
RAGSTONE ROAD is also unraced

Now any of these could pop up and win
But none of them offered me enough
On their pedigrees or their connections
To choose on their racecourse debuts
As they are conceding ROGUE 3 runs
I am staying with ROGUE against them

LORD VETIMARI has raced once before
Nice enough race and he should be a threat

ROGUE though has 2 more races
He has better numbers as well
I have to make him the Number 1
LORD VETIMMARI is saver material
It means the only realistic threats
Come from 3 Unraced horses

LAUBALI is not guaranteed to stay
His trainers 2yo's often need a race
RAGSTONE ROAD may need the run
Richard Hughes is 1-60 with unraced 2yo's
His unraced 2yo's on grass are 0-33
BUFFER ZONE may need it as well
His trainer often leaves them short of fitness

Selection

Option 1

£7 Win Bet ROGUE 5/2

£3 Win Bet LORD VETIMMARI 11/4

This means we get over 11/8 ROGUE
Money back if his biggest danger wins
And only unraced horses can beat us

Option 2

ROGUE 5/2

Each Way

I prefer Option 2

NEWTON ABBOT 2.30

11/8 Snow Castle, 13/8 Gettysburg Address,
8/1 Watcombe Heights, 14/1 Patsy Oriel
20/1 Gaelic Surprise, Onyatoes, Poyntzpass.

Maiden Hurdle over 2m 5f
Lots we don't know here
WATCOMBE HEIGHTS has 921 days off
Plenty of money for him despite that
I see him as an affordable saver
This may go to the market leaders
SNOW CASTLE has every chance
GETTYSBURG ADDRESS likewise
I think either of these could take this
GETTYSBURG ADDRESS appeals more
I like that he is a year older
I like he has vastly more experience
He also has a far more recent run
I prefer the stable as well
Not a bet I could commit to fully
Wouldn't want to highlight this race
But I feel he had more positives
Or at least more things I like in a hurdle

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet GETTYSBURG ADDRESS 11/8

£1.50 Saver Bet WATCOMBE HEIGHTS 15/2

BEVERLEY 3.10

11/4 Global Conqueror, 4/1 Baileys Excelerate
4/1 International Man, 11/2 Miss Mo Brown Bear
14/1 Carlini, 14/1 A Bit Of A Touch, 161 Real Gent,
20/1 Poppy Walton, 25/1 Cum Spiro Spero,
33/1 Nunnery Lane, 66/1 Lady Isle
100/1 Arabellas Fortune.-

2YO Novice OVER 7 FURLONGS
This looks like a 5 runner race
I don't include A BIT OF A TOUCH
Comes from a poor sire for debutants
Don't give him much chance of staying
None of the outsiders make any appeal
I feel one of the first 5 in the betting wins

Go back to 2012
Beverley races over 5f 6f 7f
Horses with under 2 career starts
Drawn 11 or higher
Have a 1-58 record in the last 5 years

Not a Slam Dunk statistic
But shows inexperienced types drawn high
Have not done well over 3 different distances
REAL GENT is unraced drawn 11 failing this
GLOBAL CONQUEROR also fails this angle
He has raced just once and has stall 12 as well
I am going to oppose this pair leaving just 3
REAL GENT has been gambled into 9/2

BAILEYS EXCELERATE has raced once
Fine chance if he stays this far
But his 2 main rivals have more experience
And I prefer them because of that

INTERNATIONAL MAN has 2 runs
Looks a serious threat to all of these

MISS MO BROWN BEAR has 6 runs
That is 4 more than any other horse
On a track that rewards experience
I find a lot of positives about her
Whilst not top on the numbers
She has the fillies allowance
International Man also has a penalty

Selection

£4 Each Way MISS MO BROWN BEAR 11/2

£2 Win Bet INTERNATIONAL MAN 3/1

BEVERLEY 3.40

11/8 Talent Scout, 7/4 Chiswick Bey
100/30 Merdon Castle, 9/1 Dream Team,
33/1 Major Muscari, 50/1 Bold Spirit, Palindrome,
50/1 Zebedee Star, 100/1 Quick Monet.

7f Claiming races

4 Horses dominate
2 of these stand out

DREAM TEAM is only a 3yo
If we look at 7f August Claiming races
Horses aged 3 have a 1-32 record
They are 0-18 in this race
If you look at the 4 main runners
She is the worst age
She has the longest absence
She has fewer runs this season
DREAM TEAM is opposed

MERDON CASTLE didn't appeal either
Not convinced he stays 7 furlongs
Not keen that he is up in distance either
I think one of 2 horses will win

TALENT SCOUT
CHISWICK BEY

CHISWICK BEY may just shade it
He is 2 years younger aged 9
His opponent is a bit older than I'd like
Especially without a run in over 3 weeks
I prefer the younger horse with 7 days off
CHISWICK BEY looks the likely winner

Selection

CHISWICK BEY 6/4

Win Bet

GOWRAN PARK 4.55

11/4 Mount Wellington, 4/1 Quizical, Shareva,
7/1 Haunting Vocals, 8/1 Rockfish, 10/1 Lucius Tiberius
10/1 Sirjack Thomas, 12/1 Bronagh's Belle, 33/1 Dani's Boy
33/1 Just Sherry, 50/1 Vocatio, 66/1 It's Paddys Day
66/1 Shandon.

7f Maiden race

MOUNT WELLINGTON looks strong
I wasn't sure 7f would suit last time
But he went down in a photo finish
And on Racing Post Ratings

He actually has progressive numbers
70 79 80 82 87

Look at the past winners of this race
They achieved these ratings the day they won
85 83 90 80 100 87 83 84 89 86 80

MOUNT WELLINGTON has an 87 rating
That would win 8 of the last 11 renewals

There are some dangers
Horses that could show improvement
Few I would want ahead of him
HAUNTING VOCALS may not stay
LUCIOUS TIBERIUS is a 2nd string horse

QUIZZICAL is a big threat
Running well from a bad draw last time
Not a lot to find on the numbers

MOUNT WELLINGTON is interesting
Very much a possible each way double bet

This could be played so many ways
MOUNT WELLINGTON 6/4 to win
MOUNT WELLINGTON Each Way Double
MOUNT WELLINGTON £8 win + £2 saver
Meaning we get 10/1 cash back on Quizical
Quizical each way is an option

This is a good option as well

£6 Win QUIZZICAL 4/1
£4 Win MOUNT WELLINGTON 11/8

That gives us 2/1 Quizzical
Cash back if the favourite wins
With no other horses scaring me

Selection

£6 Win QUIZZICAL 4/1
£4 Win MOUNT WELLINGTON 11/8

BEVERLEY 5.45

5/2 Muatadel, 6/1 Fujin, 8/1 Foxtrot Knight,
9/1 Ballesteros, Foxy Boy, Pea Shooter, 10/1 Bosham
10/1 Canford Bay, Crosse Fire, 14/1 Kibaar
16/1 Another Angel

5f Handicap
357 similar races in August

Not a race worth deep forensic detail
Several of these don't make instant appeal
CANFORD BAY a good example of that
He is a 3yo with only 3 runs
From a 5f maiden he is not like a winner
BALLESTEROS wouldn't be first choice
He rarely wins almost 2 years since he did
He almost never wins without a very recent run

You could look at this in different ways
I see just one significant point of interest
That is last time out Racing Post Ratings

Racing Post Ratings
Last time out numbers this season

FUJIN has an 89 rating last time

MUATADEL has an 80 rating last time

Look at the other runners in this race
Their last time out Ratings this season
Are 69 67 65 64 54 38 27 47
There are miles behind those two horses

FUJIN may be top but has 100 days off
That relegates him to being only a saver
He has to be a saver despite that absence
As 4 of his last 5 runs were career bests

MUATADEL achieved his 80 rating
Only 7 days ago which is a bigger help
I think he can get back to winning ways

Selection

£9 Win Bet MUATADEL 5/2

£1 Win Bet FUJIN 9/1

BANGOR 5.50

11/10 Dance Rock, 4/1 Aldrin, 8/1 Oscar's Song,
12/1 Deshan, 20/1 Comber Mill, Romann Angel
66/1 Airdrigh, Chasing Headlights
100/1 Supreme Ambition.

2m Maiden Hurdle

Don't like the favourite
But my selection is a non runner
So not sure what I have on side

DANCE ROCK sired by Oasis Dream
More bothered he has raced just twice

July August September
Maiden Hurdles
Any and every Distance
Horses aged 4
Coming from a hurdle
Under 3 career starts
Absent over 13 days
Have a 0-28 record so far

Not that persuasive as an angle
But covers 3 months and every distance
My problem now my choice doesn't run
Is trusting something else not to let me down

ALDRIN is from David Pipe

July August September
Maiden Hurdles
Any and every Distance
Horses aged 4
Coming from a hurdle
Under 8 career starts
Absent more than 6 weeks
Have a 0-35 record
ALDRIN fails that 0-35 record
Statistically I should oppose him too
But David Pipe is a stat buster at times
I won't be surprised if he wins
Especially when the favourite is weak

OSCARS SONG pulled up last time
Has since had a massive stable upgrade
But that was only very recently
His new yard haven't had much time
Now my main bet is out
Why not play it this way

Selection

Small Stakes

£2.50 Each Way DESHAM 9/1

£2.50 Each Way OSCARS SONG 7/1

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Best Wishes

Guy

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk