Dear Member
Saturday March 21st
No Account Bet Today
I've covered 10 races today on this last Saturday
before the 2014 Flat season starts next weekend.
Bound to feel a bit underwhelming sandwiched
between Cheltenham's Festival, the Flat Season
and the Grand National the following week. Not
the same level of excitement today but it feels a
competent message albeit in only average races.
I have decided not to have an account bet today.
Today's Best Bet
Lingfield 2.40
ADDICTIVE DREAM 9/2 Win Bet
LADIES ARE FOREVER 3/1 Saver Bet
I think this is probably the best bet in the message,
Other Suggested Bets
Gowran Park 2.20
SHIELD 4/7
Looks the days banker. Not much I can do with him
at the price though. I'm going to have to leave him.
May appeal to those of you that like multiple bets.
Gowran Park 4.00
VICKY DE L4OASIS 11/8
I think she will win today. Hard to judge her chance
with 3 last time out winners against her but she may
just be classier and could be doubled up with Shield.
Not bothered about the shorter priced horses though.
I also try and resist each way doubles as well. I think
GRANDEUR will win the Winter Derby at 3.50 and he
could be placed with DESOTO COUNTY (Bangor 2.15)
in an each way double if that sort of bet does appeal.
Personally I would prefer to risk the split stake bet in
the Winter Derby. Granduer (win) and Farraaj (place).
Lingfield 2.40
ADDICTIVE DREAM 9/2 Win Bet
LADIES ARE FOREVER 3/1 Saver Bet
I quite like this quality sprint despite the probability
it will be tactical and any bet dependant on how the
race will be run. I think I have a great chance here
much as 9/2 and 3/1 are a little shorter than I'd like.
Newbury 2.55
JOANNE ONE 7/1
Each Way
Very compelling angles in this race going back many
years. I always go close in this race. Sometimes only
shortlisting the winner but we have had success here
before and the race statistics are very demanding and
this year only JOANNE ONE passes them all. It always
makes me nervous when I have a smaller stable horse
taking on some powerful yards but it will be interesting
to see how she runs as every other horse is a negative.
P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S
Kelso 1.30
Decided against doing this handicap hurdle as there
is not enough edge. WAR LORD is a negative mainly
because if I look at similar races for 4 year olds that
come from Novice Hurdles those that were absent a
month or more were 0-43 and WAR LORD has to face
a 142 day absence. He is around 11/2 and I just didn't
feel I had enough in my favour given several hard to
read sorts. I'd like to oppose War Lord in a match bet.
G o w r a n P a r k 2.20
I thought SHIELD would destroy this field but he is
not immune to losing at a short price and he is one
of those horses that could leave me embarrassed if
I went for him at odds on. All that aside I think he's
a class apart and I have to see SHIELD as a banker.
Selection
SHIELD 4/7
Bangor 2.15
6/4 Irish Cavalier, 9/4 Desoto County
6/1 Chebsey Beau, 7/1 Serenity Now, 16/1 Grey Earl
16/1 River Clare, 20/1 I4m A Rocker, 33/1 Money Maid
33/1 Wing Mira, 100/1 Shays River
100/1 Sir Harry Hotspur.
This is a 2m Novice Hurdle and could be an each way
double race. IRISH CAVALIER has achieved a little more
for me but comes here well beaten last time and much
as he had excuses a last time winner DESOTO COUNTY
does have the stronger profile because of that. There 's
a small case for CHEBSEY BEAU who could play a little
role somewhere and could place. The statistical choice
is DESOTO COUNTY perhaps in an each way double.
Selection
Bangor 2.15 - Desoto County 5/4
Lingfield 3.50 - Grandeur 7/4
Each Way Double
L i n g f i e l d 2.40
7/2 Kingsgate Choice, 9/2 Addictive Dream
9/2 Ladies Are Forever, 7/1 Silken Express, 8/1 Iptisam
10/1 Even Stevens, 10/1 Forest Edge, 10/1 Stepper Point
14/1 Monsieur Joe, 20/1 Swiss Cross.
This is a 5f Listed race and since it was upgraded to this
Class all winners were aged 4-5-6. There is also a highly
significant record of winners dropping in trip mainly from
the 6f Lingfield Listed race four weeks ago. IPTISAM and
FOREST EDGE and LADIES ARE FOREVER come from the
best trial race. I don't think EVEN STEVENS has the class
to win this after stealing a soft Class 2 last time. If we look
at Career best Racing Post Ratings over 5f at any distance
SWISS CROSS and SILKEN EXPRESS come out bottom of
the ratings. Every other horse has ran faster in their career.
Career Best Racing Post Ratings at 5f
1) Monsieur Joe 114
2) Kingsgate Choice 113
3) Addictive Dream 111
3) Ladies Are Forever 111
5) Stepper Point 109
6) Forest Edge 108
7) Even Stevens 107
8) Swiss Cross 103
9) Silken Express
10) Iptisam has never run at 5f
Lingfield 5f Racing Post Ratings
1) Addictive Dream 111
1) Ladies Are Forever 111
3) Forest Edge 108
4) Swiss Cross 103
5) Even Stevens 99
6) Silken Express 97
7) Kingsgate Choice 92
8) Monsieur Joe has never run at 5f here
8) Iptisam has never run at 5f here
8) Stepper Point has never run at 5f here
KINGSGATE CHOICE has never run fast here yet and as he
is older than all recent winners and absent 176 days there
is a good case to look elsewhere. STEPPER POINT has to
defy a long absence as well and has no Sand experience
at all so he looks too risky. IPTISAM has never raced over
5f before which is not helpful. His best Racing Post Rating
is 106 and 7 horses in this race have beaten that and over
this distance which puts me off him.
Shortlist
* FOREST EDGE - Respected from best trial race
* LADIES ARE FOREVER - 1 run since October worries me
* She does come from the best trial race and won last year
* ADDICTIVE DREAM - Not best age but numbers very solid
Selection
ADDICTIVE DREAM 9/2 Win Bet
LADIES ARE FOREVER 3/1 Saver Bet
N e w b u r y 2.55
6/1 Fairytale Theatre, 7/1 Run Ructions Run
8/1 Joanne One, 8/1 Lily Waugh, 8/1 Mrs Peachey, 10/1 Down Ace
10/1 Midnight Cataria, 12/1 Koolala, 12/1 Massannie
12/1 The Pirate4s Queen, 12/1 Toubeera, 16/1 Luci Di Mezzanotte
25/1 Molly4s A Diva, 50/1 Cabaret Girl.
* This is a 2m 5f Mares Novice Handicap Hurdle Final
* There are 18 renewals of this race
* These past races show some very serious angles
* Horses that came up in distance struggled
* All 18 winners came from 19f or further last time
* This race has been a graveyard for horses up in distance
* The following horses fail this statistic
* RUN RUCTIONS RUN - LILY WAUGH - KOOLALA
* Horses aged 6 have by far the best record
* Horses aged 7 or more are just 1-91 in 18 past renewals
* Thats a bad strike rate for horses that age
* If betting a 7yo it needs to be like the only 7yo winner
* That is a last time 2m 5f Novice Hurdle winner with 4 runs
* The following horses fail this statistic
* CABARET GIRL- MOLLY4S A DIVA - LILY WAUGH - TOUBEERA
* MRS PEACHEY - DOWN ACE - FAIRYTALE THEATRE
* Every past winner ran within 75 days
* MRS PEACHEY is the only horse that fails this
* Not by much though and this stat wouldn't worry me
* This is definitely a race for lighter raced horses
* All 18 past winners had under 11 career starts
* Past winners had the following Bumper-Hurdle-Chase runs
* 6 10 7 5 9 10 6 10 9 9 8 8 9 10 6 3
* The following horses fail this statistic
* TOUBEERA - MASSANNIE - MRS PEACHEY
* The past winners had the following Hurdle starts
* 4 4 4 3 5 9 3 9 7 7 4 4 5 6 2 2
* Ignore horses with 10 or more hurdle starts
* The following horses fail this statistic
* TOUBEERA - MRS PEACHEY
* Horses from Handicaps have struggled
* Or at least horses running well in handicaps have
* Horses that were 1st 2nd 3rd in a handicap last time
* These horses had a 0-30 record in this race
* The following horses fail this statistic
* RUN RUCTIONS RUN - MIDNIGHT CATARIA
* KOOLALA - LILY WAUGH
* Perhaps the most interesting stat is about Class
* The winners tend to have a Career best today
* You do Not want horses already tested in better grade
* You want young upcoming lightly raced runners
* Look at Every past winners hurdles form
* Ignore Bumpers just look at their hurdles form
* None of these had raced in Listed or Graded races
* None had raced in Class 2 races over Hurdles either
* The Highest Class they ran in over hurdles before was this
* 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
* You want a horse that mirrors this
* The following horses fail this statistic
* TOUBEERA - MASSANNIE - MRS PEACHEY
* DOWN ACE - THE PIRATE4S QUEEN - CABARET GIRL
* LUCI DI MEZZANOTTE - MOLLY4S A DIVA
* Look at what class of race winners ran in last time
* I have said already the highly tested horses are awful
* Ignore the horses that are down in Class in this race
* They have shot their bolt and don't seem to win
* The Last Time Out Class you want is as follows
* 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 4
* Every recent winner came from Class 3 or Class 4
* The following horses fail this statistic
* TOUBEERA - MRS PEACHEY - DOWN ACE
* THE PIRATE4S QUEEN - LUCI DI MEZZANOTTE
* Horses from Novice Hurdles do well
* 8 of the last 9 winners came from Novice Hurdles
*14 of the last 17 winners came from Novice Hurdles
* Horses aged 6 have the best record
* There were 3 winners aged 5
* 14 out of the 18 winners were aged 6
Shortlist
* FAIRYTALE THEATRE - Not the best age 7 but like only 7yo winner
* 7 year olds winning Novice Hurdles last time out
* When running over 2m 4f in the last month were 1-6
* JOANNE ONE- The only horse passing all statistics
* Obviously harder to read from a Jumpers Bumper
Selection
JOANNE ONE 7/1
Each Way
L i n g f i e l d 3.10
7/4 Ertijaal, 7/1 Bow Creek, 7/1 Expert, 10/1 Alutiq
10/1 Brazos, 12/1 Sir Robert Cheval, 14/1 American Hope
14/1 Pool House, 14/1 Steventon Star, 16/1 Oriental Relation
20/1 Lilbourne Lass, 20/1 Wee Jean, 33/1 Major Crispies.
* This is a Listed race over 7f for 3 year olds
* 10 past renewals of this race
* I looked at every Listed/Group race for 3 year olds in March
* There are 16 of these races
* All 16 winners had under 9 career starts
* I'd avoid these horses with 9 or more runs
* ALUTIQ - STEVENTON STAR - ORIENTAL RELATION
* EXPERT has 9 runs. May be too many for a seasonal debutant
* Most past winners had Group Class form before
* Those that had not done that all won last time out.
* MAJOR CRISPIES - LILBOURNE LASS fail this
* SIR ROBERT CHEVAL also fails this
* AMERICAN HOPE -- BOW CREEK also fail this
* POOL HOUSE is the lowest rated horse in the race
Shortlist
* BRAZOS - I'd keep him on side as a lively outsider
* His trainer has a good record in this race
* The hard horse to judge is ERTIJAAL with 2 runs from a maiden
* In 16 similar races horses from maidens were 1-14
* That horse had 1 run ERTIJAAL has 2
* Stall 13 could be an issue with an inexperienced horse
* Prominent in the 2000 Guineas market he should go very close
* I think it's best to buy him out of the race as a saver
Selection
BRAZON 14/1 - Half your stake each way
ERTIJAAL 11/8 - Half your stake to win
L i n g f i e l d 3.50
6/4 Grandeur, 5/1 Farraaj, 7/1 Windhoek
14/1 Dick Doughtywylie, 14/1 Premio Loco, 14/1 Robin Hoods Bay
16/1 Chil The Kite, 16/1 Rebellious Guest, 20/1 Aussie Reigns
20/1 Mirsaale, 20/1 Vodkato, 25/1 Anaconda, 33/1 Circumvent
50/1 Tinshu.
The Winter Derby may well be a 3 horse race this year
given that PREMIO LOCO looks weak as a 10yo and up
in distance. GRANDEUR has a 12lbs advantage given a
rating of 117 and his nearest challenger 105. He drifted
midweek because he was drawn 14 and that's not easy
to judge. Statistically we shouldn't be afraid about that
draw. Since 2012 only 29 horses ran from Stall 14 and
three won. I think WINDHOEK has a legitimate chance
but he has a tricky to assess 58 day break when better
records come from horses that raced within a month or
had not raced for several months and WINDHOEK lacks
any Lingfield form. FARRAAJ is fancied and will be one
of the dangers but 5 year olds are just 2-56 in this race
and none of them were unexposed. If we look at these
two horses on Racing Post Ratings then FARRAAJ and
WINDHOEK have not achieved any figures beyond 111.
In Contrast GRANDERA has topped that at least 5 times
before and on his last three starts as well. There looks
to be a class edge as the official ratings point out so it
does look like GRANDERA has the best chance. Given
horses drawn 14 do not have a bad record he looks to
be the obvious bet. I feel there's a case for a split stake.
Selection
GRANDERA - Win Bet 7/4
FARRAAJ - Place Bet 11/10
It is hard to see a downside in this best. Those not able
or not wanting that may consider GRANDERA for a win.
G o w r a n P a r k 4.00
5/4 Vicky De L4oasis, 7/2 Dromnea, 9/2 Bonzo Bing
6/1 Daliyan, 10/1 The Pounds, 16/1 Benrouge
66/1 Best Of Bocelli.
* This is a 2m Novice Hurdle
* VICKY DE L4OASIS may be better class than these
* She has just come 3rd 2nd 2nd in 3rd Listed/Graded hurdles
* I made her a negative at Newbury three runs ago
* No surprise she failed for a lack of experience there
* There was no shame in here second at Fairyhouse
* Beaten by a fancied stable mate who was getting weight
* Last time out was good enough to win a race like this
* I think she should be able to win this
* DROMNEA has just won a maiden hurdle last time
* It took him 5 attempts to win one though
* DALIYAN clearly is a threat from a small stable
* VICKY DE L4OASIS may have a bit too much for him
Selection
VICKY DE L4OASIS 11/10
Win Bet
N e w b u r y 4.05
4/1 Aldopicgros, 9/2 Seeyouallincoppers, 5/1 Stiff Upper Lip
6/1 Dolores Delightful, 8/1 Refer, 10/1 Fitzwilly, 10/1 Shalianzi
12/1 Cafe Au Lait, 14/1 Andi4amu, 14/1 Brave Helios, 20/1 Keychain.
* This is a 4yo Handicap Hurdle over 19f
* Tough little race with an 8 year history
* Past winners of this race had 6-7-8-4-3-5-7-5-4-5 hurdle runs.
* Only 1 winner had under 4 hurdle starts
* That horse had a serious advantage
* He ran recently before in a Grade 1 at Cheltenham
* Horses with 1-2-3 hurdle runs were just 1-27 in this race
* Higher weighted horses also struggled
* Horses with 11st 1lbs or more are 1-41 in the 8 renewals
* That winner (Riptide) also came from Cheltenham's Festival
* FITZWILLY - 3 hurdle runs and Topweight is a lot to ask
* STIFF UPPER LIP - 2 hurdle runs is not ideal
* SEEYOUALLINCOPPERS - Only 3 hurdle runs is not ideal
* He is also absent 168 days and no winner had an absence
* ANDI4AMU has 3 runs and a long absence as well
* BRAVE HELIOS only has 3 runs
* DOLORES DELIGHTFUL is a filly with just 3 runs
* KEYCHAIN - REFER have longer absences than any winners
Shortlist
* SHALIANZI - 4 runs is acceptable
* Very inexperienced jockey and no winners came from a Flat race
* CAFE AU LAIT - 4 runs is acceptable. Probably good value 20/1 +
* ALDOPICGROS has a bit more weight than ideal but 4 runs is fine
Selection
ALDOPICGROS 9/2
Each Way
L i n g f i e l d 5.00
7/2 Mondlicht, 11/2 Atlantis Crossing, 11/2 George Guru
8/1 Spiritual Star, 8/1 Stasio, 8/1 True To Form, 10/1 Highland Knight
10/1 Party Royal, 12/1 Luhaif, 16/1 Azrur, 16/1 Brocklebank.
* This is a Class 2 Handicap over a mile
* There are 21 similar races on the Sand in March
* 20 of the 21 winners were aged 4-5-6
* Horses aged 7 or more have a 1-55 record
* HIGHLAND KNIGHT is 7 and has to defy a mark of 108
* All 21 winners had handicap marks of 99 or lower
* I looked at horses that ran with ratings of 100 or more
* There was a 0-23 record with these horses
* HIGHLAND KNIGHT is therefore opposed
* TRUE TO FORM is 7 and won last time out
* Given his aged I am taking him on
* GEORGE GURU is also a 7 year old
* We know horses his age and older are just 1-55
* GEORGE GURU also comes from a 7f race
* Horses in 21 races doing this are just 3-63
* Those aged 6 or more doing this like him are 0-31
* GEORGE GURU is unsafe and on a career high mark
* ATLANTIS CROSSING has just 1 run in 121 days
* Because he is exposed I am failing him
* PARTY ROYAL has the same problem
* He is exposed with just 1 run in 105 days
* He has never won in this class before either
* BROCKLEBANK is up in class and weight
* I think this will be too much for him
* LUHAIF is an exposed 4yo
* I wanted a more recent run and better strike rate
* AZRUR is a 4yo seasonal debutant
* These horses were 2-31 with the winners having 13-16 runs
* AZRUR only has 7 runs and comes up in trip unlike those
* AZRUR is not a close match to any winners
Shortlist
* MONDLICHT is 4 and has 2 career runs
* Horses aged 4 with under 4 runs were 0-4 all were outsiders
* Not enough have tried to have a good idea about his profile
* I certainly don't see it as a good profile
* Having just 2 runs may not be a negative either though
* STASIO is 4 and absent 40 days
* I looked at 4 year olds absent 40-50 days
* There was a very interesting 3-4 record
* The 3 winners had 13 6 11 career runs and two won last time
* STASIO has 8 runs and lost last time which I can accept
* His profile is shortlistable
* SPIRITUAL STAR has raced just once in 175 days
* I'd rather not have that to overcome but he is unexposed
* Look at his last run behind True To Form
* He finished ahead of a horse called Whispering Warrior
* That horse came out and won a Class 2 handicap next time
* Whispering Warrior only had 1 run since last May
* He was a 5yo with 11 runs. Spiritual Star is 5 with 11 runs
* It's a good match and tells me to shortlist SPIRITUAL STAR
Selection
STASIO 4/1 Win Bet
SPIRITUAL STAR 7/1 Saver Bet
****************************************************
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Best Wishes
Guy Ward
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk
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