Mathematician 1887
No Main Account bet
2 Optional Account bets
O p t i o n a l A c c o u n t
It is too busy and too complicated and conditions
too inclement to risk having a main account bet.
I fancy a couple in Ireland. I haven't been kissing
the blarney stone or anything I just like the issues
in the 3.45 and 4.55 races at Wexford and I think
they offer just about the strongest bets on the day.
Wexford 3.45
PUNCH BAG Win Bet 11/4
CALISO Saver Bet 7/2
I love the issues in this race and feel we have got a
small edge here. I can't be too accurate with prices
as Punch Bag is between 9/4 and 7/2 and Caliso can
be backed at anything between 3/1 and 4/1 which is
messy. The market isn't settled yet. I could happily
bet them both win each way or savers so it's messy.
Wexford 4.55
HE4LLBEREMEMBERED 11/4
Win Bet
Another one in Ireland. I like the statistic that shows
2m maiden races on the Flat are won by horses that
have National Hunt backgrounds. It is probably down
to strength and conditioning. This horse has just won
a Charity race last Saturday which may be under the
radar of most people. It may not help but I think this
could give him an edge and I think he's worth a bet.
T o d a y s M e s s a g e
I've made a strategic decision to have a break from
the Scoop 6 today. Many of you will pray its won so
we can finally get rid of it. Many will want it carried
forward to next week. I have no idea where I stand
about it but I know it has completely disjointed the
last two Saturday messages. Last weeks was a bad
message but we had a big winner the week before.
Today it is such a relief to get back to normal. That
said this isn't a standard Saturday message. There
is far too much racing to manage that. Given how
many meetings there and how complicated heavy
rain is making things I am quite pleased with how
the message has turned out. Plenty to think about.
I will need to get the bet selection right but I think
I have done it well albeit without knowing results.
That said don't go expecting a high strike rate on
a day like this. The message is the perfect partner
for anyone betting throughout the day and having
small stakes and I hope to highlight some winners
but any analysis has limitations on a day like this.
F r i d a y 's S u m m a r y
I knew at an early stage I was struggling yesterday
and I had no intention of having a bet in a message
that never felt right to me. in the end we finished up
with a L L W L W L record from 6 previews and that
was better than I expected. Maybe I planned it badly
but I didn't like it. I do seem to know when a dodgy
message comes along. One to forget but at least we
can do that knowing 2 winners prevented a disaster.
P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S
H a y d o c k 1.50
5/1 Big Hands Harry, 13/2 Big Easy, 7/1 Join The Clan
7/1 L4unique, 9/1 Cross Kennon, 9/1 Kris Spin, 9/1 Trackmate
10/1 Wyse Hill Teabags, 12/1 Broadway Buffalo, 12/1 Firebird Flyer
16/1 Dolatulo, 16/1 Mojolika, 25/1 Softsong, 33/1 Scotsbrook Cloud.
This is a 3m Handicap Hurdle. There are two angles I like
in this race that I hope will narrow the race down for you.
* There are 12 renewals of this race
* Past winners had the following hurdle starts
* 22 7 16 7 7 10 13 32 23 13 10 9
* It's clear lightly raced hurdlers have done badly
* Those with under 7 hurdle starts were 0-31
* BIG HANDS HARRY only has 3 hurdle starts
* The other angle I like is all winners came from Class 2 +
* Horses coming from Class 3-4-5-6-7 races are 0-45
* KRIS SPIN - DOLATULO - BIG HANDS HARRY - JOIN THE CLAN
* I would avoid the above horses
* I'd also question whether BIG HANDS HARRY stays
* His Sire hasn't bred a winner beyond 2m 5f yet
* TRACKMATE wouldn't be first choice with an absence
* FIREBIRD FLYER - I don't want a horse from a chase
* L4UNIQUE - Not a negative but not enough to shortlist
* I don't want a 5yo with topweight
* Never mind a mare that's also up in distance
* I would shortlist 4 horses
WYSE HILL TEABAGS -CROSS KENNON
BIG EASY - BROADWAY BUFFALO
I can only take a guess from here
Selection
BIG EASY 7/1
Each Way
H e x h a m 1.55
7/2 Master Murphy, 4/1 Double Whammy, 9/2 Big Sound
13/2 Forestside, 15/2 St Gregory, 8/1 New Vic, 8/1 The Shrimp
20/1 Azerodegree, 20/1 Dorlesh Way, 25/1 Master Bud
33/1 Gunpoint.
This is a Novices4 Handicap Chase over 2m 7f and with
several of these having their chasing debuts you can't
be too confident. I just wanted to mention BIG SOUND.
He won over hurdles here last year over this trip. He's
lost a few times since but several of those defeats are
over distances that he is not bred to get in bad ground.
I think he's been a non stayer over further. Wide open
race but I think he has as good a chance as anything.
Selection
BIG SOUND 11/2
Each Way
N o t t i n g h a m 2.15
15/8 Bush Warrior, 7/2 Boy In The Bar
10/1 Mercury Magic, 14/1 For Ayman 20/1 Khelfan
* This is a 3yo maiden over 6f
I was going to oppose Telmeyd as unraced horses have
a 1-145 record in these races but frustrating he is now a
non runner. So was Al Senad withdrawing as well as he
looked the natural selection. Finding the winner is hard
now as we don't know how much improvement this lot
have and if some trained on. BOY IN THE BAR could be
a big threat. BUSH WARRIOR is also one to consider. It
is a race where non runners have savaged my plans. I
just prefer BOY IN THE BAR as the bet given the prices.
Selection
BOY IN THE BAR 11/4
Win Bet
H a y d o c k 2.25
11/4 Matalleb, 3/1 Active Spirit, 7/2 Chatez
8/1 Showpiece, 12/1 Red Stargazer
14/1 Riverboat Springs, 16/1 Stormardal
20/1 Rising Breeze.
This is a complicated 3yo handicap with 2 horses with
one run from powerful stables. MATALLEB has a much
safer profile than ACTIVE SPIRIT as the latter has only
run over 6f last time and steps up in grade. I could not
go with ACTIVE SPIRIT. RIVERBOAT SPRINGS is wrong.
The strongest runners are MATALLEB and CHATEZ. I'm
going each way on CHATEZ assuming all 8 take place.
Selection
CHATEZ 3/1
Each Way
H e x h a m 2.30
7/4 Spiculas, 7/2 Man In Black, 9/2 Whiskey Chaser
10/1 Cultram Abbey, 10/1 Mister Spingsprong
14/1 Teescomponents Max, 16/1 Be A Dreamer, 16/1 Wor Lass
25/1 Sir Posealot, 25/1 Steady Progress, 50/1 Thatsmylot
100/1 Its A Story.
This is a 2m Novices Hurdle and not many can with this.
Long term WHISKEY CHASER could be best of these but
he is still very backward and a future chaser. He may be
just vulnerable at this stage of his career. I looked at all
horses aged 6 or more that had not raced before under
rule like MISTER SPINGSPRONG. There was a poor 0-41
record. SPICULAS clearly has a strong chance and might
well be the right favourite. I prefer one each way here.
* I ran MAN IN BLACK 's profile
* Horses aged 5
* Coming from a Novice Hurdle
* Absent more than 5 months
* 1 Career start over flat jumps or bumpers
* Starting under 100/1
* 3 horses had this profile finishing W 6 W
Selection
MAN IN BLACK 11/4
Each Way
W e x f o r d 2.35
6/4 Roheryn, 100/30 Alafzara
9/2 Taqarrob, 5/1 Love The Feeling
7/1 Silent Lady.
I just wanted to mention a Sire Statistic here especially
as the 3.45 at Wexford also has some interesting angles
based on stamina. TAQARROB is sired by Bushranger.
Last night at Ripon there was a beaten favourite sired
by Bushranger over 10f (Ronya Lost Evens). Today we
have another horse by this sire racing over 1m3f160y.
* Bushranger has sired 1 winner over a Mile
* His runners that raced over 8f and more are 1-67 so far
* TAQARROB must be a doubtful stayer over this far.
I suppose a place lay is possible with just 2 places but
a small field and lots can go wrong. No confident pick
as the outright selection. I'd just shade it to ALAFZARA.
A s c o t 2.40
4/1 Pether4s Moon, 5/1 Cap O4rushes, 5/1 Harris Tweed
6/1 Area Fifty One, 6/1 Kelinni, 7/1 Gatewood, 9/1 Buckwheat
12/1 Elidor, 33/1 Continuum.
* The Buckhounds Stakes is a Listed race over 12f
* 8 past renewals and I have never done this race before
* Statistically horses dropping in trip have struggled
* BUCKWHEAT - CAP O4RUSHES fail this
* CONTINUUM - - KELINNI fail this
* HARRIS TWEED also fails this coming down from 2m
* GATEWOOD isn't perfect but I respect his chance
* AREA FIFTY ONE - I'd say the same about him as well
* These 2 both come from the Doncaster Shield
* I don't think he ran well enough last time
* The ideal profile here is simple
* Horses aged under 6
* Having under 8 career starts
* Coming from 10f-12f
* No runners have that profile today
* PETHER4S MOON and ELIDOR come closest to this
* I'm going to split stake this race
ELIDOR 10/1 Win Bet
PETHER4S MOON Place Bet at Evens
A s c o t 3.15
9/4 Ribbons, 9/2 Feedyah, 11/2 Fashion Line
8/1 Majestic Queen, 17/2 Masarah, 10/1 Nurpur
10/1 Rasheeda, 12/1 Dutch Rose, 14/1 Amulet
16/1 Lady Frances.
* This is a Fillies handicap over a mile.
* It is the only Class 2 race in May for fillies over 8f
* The last 6 winners had 8 7 8 9 5 6 8 previous races
* All past winners came from a Mile last time
* They all had at least 2 previous wins before
* DUTCH ROSE has 18 runs and come up in trip
* First time out she has plenty to do with topweight
* No past winners came down from 10f
* FEEDYAH does this and a 72 day absence isn't ideal either
* Horses aged 3 have a 1-17 record in this race
* The only 3yo winner had a very recent race
* FEEDYAH is 3 and doesn't fit the bill
* LADY FRANCES - ran too badly yesterday
* RASHEEDA - I don't want a 3yo going up in class
* AMULET has only ever won in Class 5 or 6
* She is more exposed than the last 7 winners
* There were 3 seasonal debutant winners in this race
* They all had under 10 career runs
* MASARAH has 18 and looks vulnerable to improvers
* NURPUR is quite exposed with 21 career runs
* Several winners came from recent handicaps like her
* These were all lighter raced horses though
* They all came from better grades as well
* Going up two classes worries me
Shortlist
* RIBBONS has a decent profile with 6 runs
* Her only flaw is coming from a Listed race
* 2 winners did that both had long absences
* Given her class and price I will make her the saver
* FASHION LINE is 4 and has 7 runs which is ideal
* From a recent mile handicap she looks solid
Selection
FASHION LINE 6/1 Win Bet
RIBBONS 7/4 Saver Bet
N o t t i n g h a m 3.20
11/4 Hassle, 7/2 Zipp,
7/1 Bohemian Rhapsody, 9/1 Local Hero
11/1 Brigadoon, 11/1 Lineman, 14/1 Teak.
I wasn't bothered about this 14f handicap as there are
more questions than answers. I just thought ZIPP was
the interesting profile. If I looked at similar races and
look at 4yo fillies that raced first time out when these
fillies had between 8 and 9 career starts they had an
excellent W W W 3 record from 4 qualifiers. Not sure
if she is fit or good enough but ZIPP comes out best.
H a y d o c k 3.30
The Swinton Handicap Hurdle is the wrong type of race
on the wrong day for me to do any justice to it. I think I
would have gone down a split stake route. A quick scan
of the race tells me this is how I'd have played it. I don't
have a win bet but my place bet would be Vibrato Valtat.
In fact it might be best to side with VIBRATO VALTAT as
an each way bet. Not sure how to play it but my strategy
is to make sure I couldn't lose if VIBRATO VALTAT places.
W e x f o r d 3.45
9/4 Abby Cadabby, 5/2 Caliso Bay, 7/2 Punch Bag
9/2 Dixie Highway, 6/1 Hallo Rosie, 10/1 Ocean Scene
20/1 Ed Led Jed, 20/1 Eight Symphony.
* This is a 3yo handicap over 1m3f160y
* I felt I had to include this Irish race on breeding grounds
* Some really interesting stamina question marks here
* ABBY CADABBY is sired by Jeremy
* DIXIE HIGHWAY is sired by Jeremy
* Jeremy has sired 79 winners on the Flat
* Those that raced over 11f or more are 0-47
* Both these horses could have trouble staying 11f and 160 yards
* ED LED JED is sired by Baltic King
* One horse has stayed this far by that sire
* He was the only one and Baltic King gets few stayers
* ED LED JED is unraced beyond 7f and he may not stay
* No horse by Baltic King won on Good-soft or worse past 7f
* The same can be said for the sire Amadeus Wolf
* None of his offspring have won over this far with cut in the ground
* EIGHT SYMPHONY fails that and he was last seen over 5f
* I would avoid the above horses
* Finding an alternative isn't easy though
* HALLO ROSIE and OCEAN SCENE will stay
* There form has been very weak so far though
* PUNCH BAG and CALISO BAY have recent runs
* Both will stay and this pair look safest
Selection
PUNCH BAG Win Bet 11/4
CALISO Saver Bet 7/2
A s c o t 3.50
10/1 Purcell, 12/1 Ayaar, 12/1 Brownsea Brink, 12/1 Loving Spirit
14/1 Dont Bother Me, Flyman, Glen Moss, 16/1 Burn The Boats
16/1 Captain Ramius, 16/1 Excellent Guest, 16/1 Gabriel4s Lad
16/1 Georgian Bay, 16/1 Heaven4s Guest, 16/1 Louis The Pious
16/1 Redvers, 20/1 Bertiewhittle, 20/1 Boots And Spurs
20/1 Bronze Angel, 20/1 Capo Rosso, 20/1 Don4t Call Me
20/1 Ruwaiyan, Belgian Bill, Gramercy, 25/1 Pastoral Player
33/1 Spiritual Star, 33/1 Tellovoi, 40/1 Dubawi Sound
40/1 Frontier Fighter, 40/1 Sound Advice.
The Victoria Cup is much too extravagant a waste of
time so I just want to make a few interesting remarks.
* I looked at handicaps here with 12 + runners
* Since 2011 there has been 26 of these races
* Plenty of low and high drawn runners
* However horses drawn 14-15-16-17-18-19-20-21 are 0-147
* The Middle drawn horses have a horrible record
* These horses are drawn between stalls 14 and 21
* Spiritual Star - Don't Call Me - Gramercy - Heaven's Guest
* Dont Bother Me - Louis The Pious - Belgian Bill
* I looked at all 7f handicaps like this in May at this track
* The highest rated winner was 99
* Horses with official ratings of 100 or more are 0-46
* Captain Ramius - Bertiewhittle - Gabriel's Lad fail this
* Glen Moss - Pastoral Player also fail this
* I'd avoid seasonal debutants aged 7 or more like Excellent Guest
* Avoid horses aged 6 or more from 6f races like Redvers
* You want a good last time out run unlike Boots And Spurs
* The remaining horses may well provide the winner
Purcell - Ayaar - Brownsea Brink - Loving Spirit
Flyman - Georgian Bay - Burn The Boats - Ruwaiyan
W e x f o r d 4.55
3/1 Storm Away, 9/2 Moon Dice, 5/1 He4llberemembered
11/2 Passage Vendome, 11/2 Rory O4moore, 7/1 Marty4s Magic
16/1 Do Na Paisti, 16/1 Twin Focus, 20/1 Fort Defiance
20/1 Silverpockets, 25/1 Creadan Mist, 25/1 Rhinestone Cowgirl
25/1 Whodoyouthink, 100/1 Wild Artist.
* This is a maiden over 2 miles
* These races are rare and only 5 took place in May
* I just find it interesting all 5 winners were similar
* None of them came from a Flat race
* They all came from Hurdles, Chases or Bumpers
* National Hunt horses lead 5-0 in these 5 races
* This is surely a strength and conditioning issue
* If this continues then the following horses won't win
* STORM AWAY - MARTY4S MAGIC - TWIN FOCUS - MOON DICE
* MARTY4S MAGIC is sired by Tale Of The Cat
* This sire hasn't bred a flat winner beyond 12f yet
* This leaves a shortlist of 4
* PASSAGE VENDOME - DO NA PAISTI can't be discounted
* The following horses look the safer options
* RORY O4MOORE 7/1 - HE4LLBEREMEMBERED 5/2
I prefer HE4LLBEREMEMBERED
He won the Charity race last Saturday and Punchestowns
Festival and that could give him an extra edge here.
Selection
HE4LLBEREMEMBERED 5/2
Win Bet
T h i r s k 5.40
9/2 Kalahari Kingdom, 6/1 Kraka Gym, 6/1 Marlismamma
8/1 Another Royal, 8/1 Baltic Fire, 8/1 It4s All A Game
14/1 Her Red Devil, 14/1 Minionette, 14/1 Shamouti
14/1 Sooqaan, 16/1 Rockie Road 20/1 Gee Sharp.
* This big field 8f low grade 3yo handicap is clearly trappy
* I looked at 81 similar races in May
* Horses from 3yo handicaps over 6f or shorter are 0-46
* ANOTHER ROYAL fails that and I don't fancy her
* MINIONETTE is wrong as a filly from a 6f race this year
* MARLISMAMMA is a filly from a 3yo handicap over 7f
* Fillies with this profile are 1-51 the 1 winner much lighter raced
* IT4S ALL A GAME has just won a 3yo handicap over 7f
* The one winner that won again had just 4 runs
* IT4S ALL A GAME could be too exposed with 19 runs
* GEE SHARP- Hate his absence and his sire's soft ground record
Possibles
* SOOQAAN - I can find a winner like him
* I ran KALAHARI KINGDOM's profile
* Complicated profile. Just fell too short given the draw
* There are winners from Stall 1 but I'd rather be drawn higher
* BALTIC FIRE comes from a 3yo handicap over 7f
* He has 9-10-11 career starts and a run within a month
* Similar horses had a 3-13 record
* BALTIC FIRE is a positive with 1 problem
* He needs to stay a mile on softer ground
* His last run at Beverley suggested this is not guaranteed
* I looked at all horses sired by Baltic King
* When racing on ground that's good to soft or softer
* Those that raced over a mile or more were 0-18
* BALTIC FIRE does have to prove doubtful stamina
* KRAKA GYM comes from the same race as Baltic Fire
* He has a very similar profile
* He shares that 3-13 profile and looks a big runner
Selection
KRAKA GYM 8/1
Each Way
W a r w i c k 5.55
9/4 Power Play, 3/1 Perardua, 5/1 Honest Bob4s
11/2 Kidmeforever, 8/1 Bonnie Grey, 10/1 Decisive Rebel
14/1 Cerise Firth, 33/1 Storming Harry.
* This is a 2yo maiden over 5f
* All comments here can only be superficial
* POWER PLAY looks safer than PERARDUA
* Both have had 1 run so far
* POWER PLAY came from a Grade 1 track. Perardus didn't
* He started a shorter price to win than Perardus did at Wolves
* He has a better Racing Post Rating
* He was beaten a shorter distance as well
* POWER PLAY is a male against a filly
* I just felt he was a stronger all round proposition on paper
* KIDMEFOREVER doesn't offer nearly enough yet
* If all 8 run I'd be looking each way double here
* Only superficial arguments steer me to POWER PLAY
W a r w i c k 6.25
2/1 Doomah, 6/1 Miss Van Gogh, 7/1 Chetan
10/1 Blue Burmese, 10/1 Go White Lightning
12/1 Only Joking, 20/1 Arousal, 20/1 Buckleberry
25/1 Cap Ia Nna.
This is a 2yo maiden Auction Race
The Majority of the field are unraced so I can't be too confident
I could only bet one horse here
DOOMAH 11/10
Last time out at Bath I made him a big negative as he
failed a 0-117 statistic that shows how impossible it is
for lightly raced 2 year olds to win from Stall 1 at Bath.
He ran a good second from Stall 1 on his debut. That's
not going to be Royal Ascot form or anything but I feel
you can upgrade that performance because of his draw.
With impeccable connections he stands out to me. This
horse could be perfect for an each way double as well.
Selection
DOOMAH 11/10
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Best Wishes
Guy Ward
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk
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