Mathematician 1881
Saturday May 3rd
No Main Account bet
3 Optional Account bets
O p t i o n a l A c c o u n t
Three Bets
I was planning to go with the Main Account Today.
I'm just going to leave it because the Scoop 6 will
distract me and I have all sorts of things going on
in my head today so I think I must carry on today
on the optional account. All Three bets look good.
Newmarket 2.05
CIRCUMVENT 16/1
Each Way
Goodwood 3.30
ELUSIVITY 7/2 Win Bet
AJJAADD 7/1 Saver Bet ( saver = stake to break roughly even if the saver horse
wins )
Thirsk 4.50
STERNRUBIN 4/1
Each Way
****************************************************
CIRCUMVENT 16/1 Each Way
In yesterday's message I said I might have found
a 12/1 account bet. That horse was CIRCUMVENT
and I wanted to go with him as a bet but only on
the Optional Account. Both he and his trainer are
difficult to read. My big problem is 9f is a strange
distance and whilst my angles point to him some
of the negatives would turn into positives if they
were running over 8f or 10f so there is a danger
I could have underestimated several negatives.
Stats in 9f races must only be fully trusted when
they work out in 8f & 10f races and these don't.
ELUSIVITY 7/2 Win Bet
AJJAADD 7/1 Saver Bet
I love this 3.30 at Goodwood. Margins are tight
over 5f here and a variety of profiles but I think
I have made a strong case for both ELUSIVITY
and AJJAADD and I think this is a race to bet in.
STERNRUBIN 4/1 Each Way
Thirsk 12f maidens are happy hunting ground
for me at least they were a few years ago. I'm
very keen on STERNRUBIN here. My one fear
apart from the favourite who is hard to judge
is whether a 3rd run could be a handicapping
run and there is a small risk we are cheated
out of the bet. I am prepared to risk that only
on the options account. That risk aside I fancy
him strongly to win and I have to stake him.
* I could have added more bets today
* I really fancy Manchester City to beat Everton !
* Thirsk 3.00 Music In The Rain 5/2 win or each way
Some fabulous racing today but far too much of it.
Nobody can begin to look at all of it. There will be
races today we have no idea about that must have
significant angles in. It's a criminal waste when so
many of today's races could have been shared out
through the week. I've been boxed in again today
with the Scoop 6 previewing 6 races. That may or
may not be a positive thing. It restricts choice in a
lot of other races but this also stops me spreading
myself too thinly and we did have a 7/1 winner on
the account in last Saturdays Scoop 6 message so
it may even be a positive. In the last 2 weeks there
has been £27,000 + of members money staked and
that is not a pleasant thought and lots of pressure.
S c o o p 6
Crashed and Burned last week. Leg One and it
was only the fact the whole country failed that
went some way to comforting me. Good Luck.
* Perms will be sent before the first race
* They will also be posted on the message board
* The current total raised to bet with is £11,600
2 0 0 0 G u i n e a s
I would love a strong opinion in this race but this
race doesn't suit my angles and I haven't got one.
I know several members are hoping for Toormore
as they have the each way double running with a
recent 7/2 winner. I left that off the account as the
bet was just a hunch at the time. That would be a
good result for some. I respect the favourite but I
am going to go with AUSTRALIA to win this race.
Y e s t e r d a y 's S u m m a r y
One bet One winner yesterday. I went with an old
style format in the message. I detest that style and
rarely use it anymore but with the Scoop 6 taking
so much of my time I resurrected it for yesterdays
message and it paid off. ON THE FRINGE wasn't a
big price but he was 6/4 in the morning and won
by 20 lengths so we have to be pleased. Isolating
all the bets in the message it went W P P L W W
so whilst it wasn't a deep and meaningful sort of
message it was a least mature and it delivered.
P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S
Thirsk 1.55
* This is a 2yo maiden over 5f
* HORSFORTH - I opposed him last time
* Didn't feel his Racing Post Ratings were high enough
* I still don't but can appreciate 2 runs is a big help here
* HORSFORTH - I would see him as a Place Bet if 4/5 +
* Gut feeling is something will beat him but not 3
* I an interested in CAPTAIN COLBY's Sire
* So far Bernstein the sire has never bred a 5f winner
* Just wonder if CAPTAIN COLBY may find this too quick
* No idea what will win with so many unraced horses
Conclusion
* There are worse bets than HORSFORTH to place only
* I would like to oppose Captain Colby in a match bet
* HORSFORTH is matched with Captain Colby on Betfair
N e w m a r k e t 2.05
8/1 Big Baz, 8/1 Rock Choir, 9/1 Trumpet Major, 9/1 Two For Two
10/1 Bold Sniper, 10/1 Farraaj, 10/1 Stand My Ground, 12/1 Highland Duke
12/1 Proud Chieftain, 14/1 Ajmany, 14/1 Burano, 14/1 Circumvent
14/1 Roserrow, 16/1 Veeraya, 20/1 Directorship, 20/1 Niceofyoutotellme
20/1 Spifer, 25/1 Lunar Deity, 25/1 Strictly Silver.
* This is Class 2 handicap over 9f.
* No clear draw bias in this race
* I'd probably ignore the lowest and highest stall
* There are 18 similar races in April and May
* Horses aged 6 or more are just 1-34 in these races
* DIRECTORSHIP looks wrong as an 8yo debutant
* 17 of the 18 winners were rated 95 or lower
* I looked at the record of horses rated 96 or higher
* All 51 horses that tried lost when rated 96 or higher
* TRUMPET MAJOR fails this with a rating of 106
* Only 1 of the 18 winners came from a Pattern race anyway
* FARRAAJ rated 102 from a Pattern race also fails this angle
* BURANO rated 100 is uncomfortably high
* He may pop in but he is quirky and his stable are unreliable
* TWO FOR TWO is rated 99 which is ideally too high
* We know only 1 horse aged 6 or more won like him
* BOLD SNIPER is a 4yo debutant rated 99
* We know horses rated 96 or higher are just 1-51
* BOLD SNIPER may also find Stall 17 a problem
* Horses like him from 3yo handicaps last year are 1-8
* That horse had 4 more runs and didn't come from 12f
* No seasonal debutant won from a 12f race anyway
* BOLD SNIPER has flaws in his profile
* STRICTLY SILVER - Rated 98 is higher than ideal
* I don't like his draw or his absence either
* PROUD CHIEFTAIN is also rated higher than ideal
* No seasonal debutants aged 6 or more won anyway
* AJMANY is a 4yo debutant
* He comes from a 3yo handicap
* I can live with that but he is not fancied in the market
* Stall 19 of 19 could be his biggest problem
* ROCK CHOIR is a 4yo debutant
* There were 4 of these winning but none were fillies
* None came from Listed or Group Class either
* I looked at every Class 2 handicap in April and May
* I looked for 4yo fillies first time out
* Those that came from pattern races were just 1-35
* That winner (Folk Opera) only had 3 runs
* ROCK CHOIR doesn't have the safest of profiles
* Stall 18 would also worry me over this distance
* STAND MY GROUND is older than ideal aged 7
* There was a 7yo win with runs that season
* That horse (Kew Green) had 4 runs since Jan 1st that year
* If you look at these 18 similar races
* Horses with just 1 run since Jan 1st that year were just 1-93
* That winner won this in 2008 (Proponent)
* It is a bad record though and I'd be wary of them
* Past winners has 2 0 0 5 0 1 0 0 4 runs since Jan 1st that year
* STAND MY GROUND only has 1 run this season
* LUNAR DEITY does and didn't do enough in a Class 4 last time
* VEERAYA probably needs a lower grade to win
* NICEOFYOUTOTELLME could also do with a lower grade
* Not a negative but badly beaten whenever raced in this Class
* SPIFER - I don't want a 6yo debutant on a career high mark
* ROSERROW - My only problem is one run this season
* Not enough horses have won with 1 run to be comfortable
* HIGHLAND DUKE has the same problem as well
* Profile likeable in places but 1 run this year worries me
* He was badly drawn last time and ran better than it looked
* BIG BAZ is 4 and only has 3 runs
* The only lightly raced winners were seasonal debutants
* Not comfortable he has run this year and it was 82 days ago
* CIRCUMVENT has only won in July or later
* He is very well treated though these days off 84
* With runs this year I would seriously consider him
* His trainer has said he is a big burly type hard to get fit
* After 3 runs he should have achieved that now
Shortlist
CIRCUMVENT 16/1
Each Way
N e w m a r k e t 2.40
100/30 Pearl Secret, 7/2 Sole Power, 5/1 Hot Streak
7/1 Moviesta, 8/1 Kingsgate Native, 10/1 Justineo
12/1 Stepper Point, 16/1 Rocky Ground, 20/1 Dinkum Diamond
20/1 Eton Rifles, 33/1 Extortionist, 33/1 Iptisam.
* Palace House Stakes is a Group 3 race over 5f
* You want to avoid the older horses in this race
* Avoid horses aged 7 or more are 1-56 in this race
* KINGSGATE NATIVE fails that as a 9 year old
* He was 2nd last year first time out as an 8yo
* Now he is 9 it may be best to look elsewhere
* ETON RIFLES is also a 9 year old
* He won a 6f race last time out which was this season
* There were 7 winners that had raced that season
* Those aged 6 or more were 0-46 doing this
* ETON RIFLES does not come out well enough
* SOLE POWER also fails this 0-46 statistic
* He is 7 and has raced twice this season
* SOLE POWER did win this last year with the same preparation
* He is also the highest rated horse in the race so not a negative
* DINKUM DIAMOND has run this year over 6f
* There were 7 winners that had raced that season
* Those aged 6 or more were 0-46 doing this
* DINKUM DIAMOND fails this so I am rejecting him
* IPTISAM has raced 3 times this season
* No winner had raced 3 or more times that year
* I would also argue he has the worst draw in Stall one
* I looked at 4 year old seasonal debutants
* There was a 3-62 record in the last 28 renewals
* All 3 winners had Group 1 form and 9 + runs
* ROCKY GROUND has just 6 runs and no Group form at all
* The lowest rated winner in recent years was 103
* ROCKY GROUND already rejected fails this
* EXTORTIONIST rated 102 would be lowest rated winner
* He is a 3yo seasonal debutant as were 2 recent winners
* My only complaint with him is a lower rating than all winners
Possibles
* MOVIESTA is a seasonal debutant aged 4
* We know these are 3-62 all have 9 + runs and Group 1 form
* MOVIESTA does meet that criteria so is respected
* It does bother me that 4 year olds have struggled lately
* They have won just 3 renewals of this race in the last 21 years
* All 3 of those winners had raced that season
* Since 1993 seasonal debut 4 year olds are 0-36 in this race
* JUSTINEO is a 5yo seasonal debutant
* There was 1 seasonal debutant aged 5 win since 2007
* That winner was unexposed though
* JUSTINEO has already had 24 career starts
* There are safer profiles than an exposed debutant
* STEPPER POINT is 5 and ran over 6f this season
* Look at 5 year olds running within a month over 6f
* They had a very smart 5-14 record since 1996
* However all 5 winners were beaten under 1 length last time
* Most came from the Abernant Stakes at Newmarket
* STEPPER POINT was beaten over 4 lengths at Lingfield
* Raises the question did he run well enough last time ?
* ETON RIFLES - His profile is flawed this year
* Past record in the race and being top rated shortlists him
Shortlist
* HOT STREAK is a 3yo seasonal debutant
* The 2008 and 2009 winners had this profile
* With Group 1 form he needs to be shortlisted
* PEARL SECRET has run this year over 5f
* That's not a safe profile much as last years winner did it
* No 5 year old has won with that profile
* No 5 year old has won with as few runs as him either
* He placed in a Group 1 last year which earns him points
Selection
HOT STREAK 11/2 Win Bet
PEARL SECRET 4/1 Saver Bet
T h i r s k 3.00
3/1 Music In The Rain, 6/1 Our Boy Jack, 7/1 Desert Creek
8/1 Trade Secret, 9/1 Capaill Liath, 10/1 Fieldgunner Kirkup
10/1 Ruwaiyan, 10/1 Talent Scout, 14/1 Al Muheer, 14/1 Relight My Fire
16/1 Shahdaroba, 20/1 Kingscroft, 25/1 Le Deluge.
* This is a 7f handicap for 0-91 rated horses
* Not keen and only doing this as a Scoop 6 races
* No Long preview just a few thoughts
* The following horses had unacceptable profiles
* KINGSCROFT - LE DELUGE
* SHAHDAROBA - RELIGHT MY FIRE
* RUWAIYAN - Not keen on his absence or his draw
* TALENT SCOUT comes from 8f with 1 run this season
* I looked at horses aged 8 and more doing this
* I can find a winner with his profile
* Two things bother me about his Class
* All wins in Lower Grades and he is 0-8 in this Class
* All wins off marks of 75 or lower and today he is rated 84
* TALENT SCOUT needs a career best
* I'd also worry 7f here could be a bit sharp
* TRADE SECRET is 7 and comes up in distance
* Horses his age and older doing this with a recent run have won
* None had 2-3-4-5 runs that season. All 25 that did failed
* TRADE SECRET fails only on a technicality
* He's never won over this distance either
* OUR BOY JACK is 5 and has a recent run
* I ran his profile and couldn't quite match him to a winner
* Not with 2 runs this year and his draw is an issue
* Thirsk have 30 handicaps since 2012 with 10 + runners
* Horses drawn 12 or higher have a 1-64 record
* OUR BOY JACK- Unsafe profile. Difficult Draw
* DESERT CREEK is 8 and has a recent run
* To match him to a winner I needed a 3rd run this season
* FIELDGUNNER KIRKUP - I wanted more encouragement last time
* That said a clever yard and he smells quietly fancied
* He was never put in the race last time and could be a job horse
* I don't fancy him but he's smelly and must go in any Scoop 6
Shortlist
* AL MUHEER is 9 and there are safer profiles
* It wouldn't be beyond him off this mark
* His trainer has won this race 3 times recently
* MUSIC IN THE RAIN is 6 and won a 7f handicap last time
* Horses with this profile and 1 run this season were 3-12
* All 3 had far more runs than he does
* MUSIC IN THE RAIN is a Neutral Positive for me
* I like his numbers and that makes him the selection
* CAPAILL LIATH is 6 and down from a Mile
* Hard to read profile but on the Positive side
* He was made favourite in a 0-85 at Redcar last time
* I opposed him that day from a very weak draw
* With runs this season I like his chance a lot
* Just worry about his 7f fast ground numbers being enough
Racing Post Ratings
Since January 1st 2013
7f on good or faster only
97 Music In The Rain - Shahdaroba
90 Talent Scout - Al Muheer
89 Music In The Rain - Fieldgunner Kirkup
86 Kingscroft
Selection
MUSIC IN THE RAIN 5/2
Win Bet
N e w m a r k e t 3.10
Evs Trading Leather, 9/2 Gospel Choir, 9/2 Penglai Pavilion
8/1 Brass Ring, 12/1 Pether´s Moon, 20/1 Renew, 33/1 Havana Beat
33/1 Times Up.
The Jockey Club Stakes is not a high profile race for us
because of the type of horses it attracts. Two horses are
dominant. TRADING LEATHER and PENGLAI PAVILION
stand out at the weights. I respect GOSPEL CHOIR here
but he is up 3f in trip having raced just once this season
and I wasn't keen on that. BRASS RING only comes from
a handicap and lacks Graded backclass. I don't see the
case to take on the two big runners. TRADING LEATHER
is more obvious but PENGLAI PAVILION whilst harder to
read did finish only 9 lengths behind Treve in the Arc so
can't be underestimated especially with a recent run. I
would go with a split stake bet here just to be safer.
Selection
TRADING LEATHER 11/10 - Half Stakes to win
PENGLAI PAVILION 5/1 - Half Stakes to win
G o o d w o o d 3.30
100/30 Elusivity, 4/1 Pal Of The Cat, 11/2 Fair Value
11/2 Long Awaited, 13/2 Kyleakin Lass, 7/1 Waseem Faris
8/1 Ajjaadd, 14/1 Jiroft, 25/1 Tennessee Wildcat
33/1 Pandar.
* This is a 5f handicap for 0-95 rated horses
* There are 165 similar races in April and May
* PANDAR is an unlikely winner
* LONG AWAITED goes well fresh and is a good horse
* This looks a prep run for the Epsom Dash
* 165 similar races the longest absent winner was 254 days
* Those that were absent 255 or more days were 0-74
* LONG AWAITED absent 279 days fails that
* TENNESSEE WILDCAT looks unsafe and not well drawn
* JIROFT is too unpredictable and rarely delivers
* PAL OF THE CAT won a 5f handicap on his 1st run this season
* There were 10 horses aged 4 that did that
* They finished 3 4 8 6 6 5 7 8 9 10 in a 0-10 record
* They lost at 12/1 7/1 9/2 9/1 3/1 4/1 10/1 11/1 7/1 9/4
* Win lose of draw my angles suggest we should ignore him
* KYLEAKIN LASS has raced once this year in a 5f handicap
* I looked at 5 year old mares with this profile
* All 7 that tried failed so she looks unsafe
* FAIR VALUE is a 6yo Mare from a 5f handicap
* Mares aged 6 or more have a 2-49 record
* Those from 5f handicaps were 1-31
* That winner had an absence and she doesn't
* FAIR VALUE - Shortlistable but not quite right
* WASEEM FARIS has only won in Class 4 or lower
* He's only won in July or later as well
* That may be so but his individual profile is fine
Shortlist
* AJJAADD - Worries me he is 8 and absent 136 days
* There are older horses winning with absences though
* I couldn't make him a negative and he has won fresh
* You have to respect him on his run last year at Epsom
* That was after a break and he has to be considered
* He is 4-8 in this Class and these are good conditions
* AJJAADD
* Running in Class 3 or lower
* Running on turf and not sand
* Running over 5f
* AJJAADD has run 8 times under these conditions
* He finished W 2 10 10 W 3 4 3 W W W W 4 W W
* This included wins after 134 and 74 days
* The stable are very short of runners though
* Hard to know whether they are in any kind of form
* ELUSIVITY is 6 and has 3 runs this season
* Thats a solid enough profile and he is shortlisted
* One worry is 2 runs here both were well beaten runs
* Both were in big field Group races though
* This is why you can ignore that
* ELUSIVITY is 0-21 racing in Class 2 or higher
* ELUSIVITY is 0-21 racing in fields of 12 or more
* In a Class 3 with 10 runners circumstances look ideal
Selection
ELUSIVITY 7/2 Win Bet
AJJAADD 7/1 Saver Bet
T h i r s k 3.40
9/2 Off Art, 8/1 Farlow, 9/1 Ingleby Angel 10/1 Multi Bene
10/1 Norse Blues, 11/1 Anderiego, 11/1 Bold Prediction
12/1 Fort Bastion, 12/1 Trail Blaze, 14/1 Showboating
14/1 Wannabe King, 20/1 Joe Eile, 20/1 Osteopathic Remedy
20/1 Robert The Painter.
* The Thirsk Hunt Cup is an 8f Handicap for 0-98 rated horses.
* April and May have 67 similar races
* I will start with the Draw
* Handicap (8f) at Thirsk with 14 + runners
* Since 2011 there were 22 races and these were the draws
* 10 7 17 8 6 11 6 7 6 5 13 16 10 8 10 4 12 10 7 13 15 7
* Horses drawn 1-2-3 had a 0-63 record in these 22 races
* There were winners drawn 1-2-3 in races with 13 + runners
* The implication is beware of very low drawn horses
* Two non runners now make 16 runners 14
* Getting into dangerous territory with the draw now
* I want to look at the older horses
* None of the 67 were as old as OSTEOPATHIC REMEDY
* Horses aged 8 or more had a 2-83 record
* None came up in distance like WANNABE KING
* Horses aged 6 or more had a weak 10-339 record
* Those with 1 run that season were 2-108
* Those absent more than 2 weeks were 0-78
* NORSE BLUES fails this statistic
* BOLD PREDICTION is 4 and won an 8f handicap last time
* Horses with this profile were 1-19
* That winner was lighter raced with a more recent run
* He also came from a better class of race as well
* FARLOW is a 6 year old and won last time out
* Horses aged 6 or more were 10-339
* Those like FARLOW winning last time out were 0-34
* Horses aged 6 or more coming up from 7f or shorter were 2-89
* JOE EILE is 6 and up in distance
* It's a shaky profile but not without hope
* ANDERIEGO is 6 with 1 run this year
* Another shaky profile but again not enough for a negative
* ROBERT THE PAINTER - Can't rule him out with a recent run
* Career high mark though and 0-8 in this class so far
* SHOWBOATING has similar problems
* He is 0-10 beyond a Class 4 race and 0-7 at a mile
* He also has a career high mark to overcome
* MULTI BENE is in this grade for the first time
* Career high mark and has quite a bit to prove in this class
* TRAIL BLAZE was 8th last year but has 2 prep runs this year
* I looked at 5 year olds winning last time
* With 2 runs that year and a recent run they were 1-3
* TRAIL BLAZE's profile is fine but he is drawn 1
* That is the biggest problem with siding with him
* FORT BASTION is 5 and up in distance with a recent run
* I found 1 winner of a similar handicap elsewhere
* He is quirky and recently downgraded stables
* His profile is good enough to shortlist though
* OFF ART is 4 and has 1 run this season
* I looked at similar 4 year olds with under 7 starts
* There was a 2-11 record and OFF ART's profile is fine
* His problem is Stall 2 which is not a good draw
* Big chance but surely 2/1 is too skinny for this race
* OFF ART would have been a saver at a bigger price
* INGLEBY ANGEL is 5 and has a recent run in an 8f handicap
* Similar horses with 1 run this year were 2-17
* INGLEBY ANGEL has a good profile and draw
* He isn't that well handicapped but he has the right profile
Selection
INGLEBY ANGEL 9/1 + Win Bet
ANDERIEGO 8/1 Saver Bet
N e w m a r k e t 3.50
13/8 Kingman, 3/1 Australia, 8/1 Toormore
8/1 War Command, 12/1 Kingston Hill, 16/1 Noozhoh Canarias
25/1 Charm Spirit, 25/1 Outstrip, 33/1 Bookrunner, 33/1 Ertijaal
33/1 Night Of Thunder, 33/1 Shifting Power, 66/1 The Grey Gatsby
150/1 Master The World.
* This looks a high class 2000 Guineas
* So much we don't know in this race
* Such as how good AUSTRALIA is and will 8f suit ?
* His stablemate WAR COMMAND has been popular recently
* To bet him you have to deal with the jockey preferring Australia
* Joseph O'Brien had the choice and hard to overlook that
* Earlier in the week I said I wanted to oppose KINGMAN
* His Sires runners over 8f + in Group Class struggle
* A member correctly pointed out this wasn't a safe assumption
* The Sire has had a winner in France over further
* Even if I don't use that angle he is still a short price
* KINGMAN was impressive in the Greenham but beat little
* Only 1 of the last 25 Greenham winners to run this race won
* I think I am going to oppose KINGMAN because of the Draw
* The Draw could have the major say in this race
* KINGMAN is Drawn 1 and TOORMOORE is drawn 14
* They are the lowest and highest drawn runners
* Newmarket races over a Mile since 2011
* When having between 10 and 15 runners
* There were 48 of these races
* Now 47 of the 48 winners were drawn 2-13
* Horses drawn 1 like KINGMAN were just 1-42
* The only winner was the mighty Frankel
* Horses drawn 14 or higher like TOORMORE were 0-23
* I think both horses have been dealt the worst draws.
I am opposing WAR COMMAND as I don't have any real
evidence to question Joseph O'Brien's decision to ride
something else. I won't risk NOOZHOH CANARIAS as it
seems unlikely a Spanish horse can win our Guineas.
KINGSTON HILL was definitely an option but I would
have been happier with a higher level of trainer much
as the stable are decent. KINGSTON HILL also has not
raced on fast ground before. He may well improve for
that for all we know so I think he should be shortlisted.
This now leaves AUSTRALIA who will try and show the
hype was justified. It is easier to see a Derby Pedigree
than a Guineas one but it may not stop him winning.
I could fancy a few but I have settled on AUSTRALIA.
Selection
AUSTRALIA 100/30
Win Bet
T h i r s k 4.15
I think DUTCH BREEZE is the most likely winner of this
3yo maiden. Could be a race for a split stake bet with
something to place just in case DUTCH BREEZE doesn't
stay and there are some unraced runners complicating
the race. Thats one option and how I'd play the race.
N e w m a r k e t 4.25
4/1 Stars Above Me, 6/1 Perfect Alchemy, 6/1 Strategic Force
6/1 Tanseeb, 8/1 Eastern Impact, 8/1 Outer Space
10/1 Meritocracy, 12/1 Nova Champ, 16/1 Captain Midnight
20/1 Red Lady, 33/1 Diamond Lady.
* This is a 3yo Handicap over 6f
* There are 45 similar Class 2 races in April and May
* 29 winners ran within 4 weeks and 16 were seasonal debutants
* Those that were neither had a 0-49 record
* CAPTAIN MIDNIGHT fails this statistic
* Fillies have a disappointing 3-107 record in 45 races
* They all had 5 6 5 career starts
* STARS ABOVE ME is a filly and only has 2 career starts
* This won't be easy first time out for a lightly raced filly
* RED LADY is a filly with 4 runs and her profile is not right
* No fillies won with prior Group Class form
* DIAMOND LADY - No filly won after such a poor last race
* Horses from 5f races are statistically weak
* So far in 45 similar races they are 3-105
* Horses from a 5f race this season are just 1-70
* Those with under 3 runs that season were 0-55
* NOVA CHAMP fails this and goes up two grades
* EASTERN IMPACT also fails this 5f statistic
* OUTER SPACE didn't really do enough last time
* MERITOCRACY needed a better run last time as well
* I looked at horses with 8 or more career starts
* Those like MERITOCRACY with 1 run that year were 2-66
* Both horses ran much better than he did last time out
Shortlist
* TANSEEB is a seasonal debutant with 8 runs
* Male seasonal debutants with 7 or more runs were 3-49
* Only 1 had more than 7 runs and he has 8
* Not a bomb proof profile but he is shortlistable
* PERFECT ALCHEMY is a filly and won last time out
* I respect her but she only has 4 career starts
* I can only find fillies winning with 5-5-6 previous runs
* STRATEGIC FORCE has just won a 6f maiden this year
* Male horses doing this had a 3-10 record
* These winners had 3 5 6 career runs
* STRATEGIC FORCE has 3 runs so is like a winner
Selection
STRATEGIC FORCE 9/1 Win Bet
PERFECT ALCHEMY 5/1 Win Bet
T h i r s k 4.50
13/8 Tacticus, 4/1 Miss Crystal, 5/1 Sternrubin
6/1 First Move, 10/1 Chatham House Rule, 12/1 Tiger Lilly
16/1 Dan Emmett, 16/1 Fickle Feelings, 25/1 King´s Prospect
33/1 High Love, 50/1 Lacocodanza, 50/1 Saddlers Mot
100/1 Yorkshire Monarch.
* This is a 12f maiden
* STERNRUBIN could be the bet here and possibly each way
* The 11f maiden he comes from at Newbury is traditionally strong
* Thirsk has 44 of these maidens at this time of year
* I looked at the record of horses from this 11f Newbury maiden
* There was a 4-10 record of horses doing this
Obviously TACTICUS needs respecting but is not unbeatable.
For whatever reason horses drawn 1 like MISS CRYSTAL do
score badly over 12f here. FIRST MOVE could win but he is
a 4 year old and has to give plenty of weight away. So does
DAN EMMETT and who wants to bet a horse aged 4 in a race
like this when he has downgraded yards to John Wainwright.
STERNRUBIN caught the eye last time and was given a very
easy race. Half of me thinks he is a big bet but I suppose we
have to accept the danger his 3rd run could be used to get a
handicap mark. That would stop me going Main Account.
Selection
STERNRUBIN 4/1
Each Way
N e w m a r k e t 5.00
7/4 Cloudscape, 11/4 Postponed, 5/1 Pinzolo
8/1 Barley Mow, 10/1 Sir Jack Layden, 12/1 Mutakayyef
14/1 Bremner, 25/1 Pupil.
This 3yo Listed race is not really my cup of tea but
over the years the angles have flip flopped and the
current trends has been significant in recent years.
* The last 11 winners had raced as 3 year olds
* The last 7 winners did that with Under 5 career starts
* The last 9 winners came from one of two meetings
* Either Newbury of Newmarket 2-3 weeks ago
* This tells me the best profiles are these
* CLOUDSCAPE - MUTAKAYYEF - POSTPONED
All 3 are respected. You can say horses from handicaps
like CLOUDSCAPE haven't won this for many years. No
winners were beaten in maidens like MUTAKAYYEF so
he isn't safe but he only went down in a photo so that's
worth considering. Safest of the three is POSTPONED.
Selection
POSTPONED 5/2
Each Way
T h i r s k 5.50
6/4 Premium Pressure, 6/4 Rogue Wave, 5/1 Foxcover
16/1 Queens Park, 20/1 Reeflex, 20/1 Some Boy Lukey
25/1 Sooqaan, 25/1 To Begin, 100/1 Shades Of Silk.
* This is a 7f maiden for 3 year olds
* ROGUE WAVE's profile is just ahead of PREMIUM PRESSURE
* Not much in it but if I had to call it his profile is just safer
* That said I really don't want to bet an Alan Jarvis horse
* I think the trainer angle levels it up
* The compromise has to be the each way double
* PREMIUM PRESSURE is my selection
* Not the safest profile but I'd rather rely on this stable
* He cost a bomb. Far too much but I shade it his way
* PREMIUM PRESSURE is the selection
* I'd put him in an each way double with the following horse
Selection
Thirsk 5.50 - PREMIUM PRESSURE 11/10
Doncaster 7.45 - HIGHLAND ACCLAIM 9/4
Each Way Double
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Best Wishes
Guy Ward
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk
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