Mathematician 3298
Saturday August 10th

8 Previews
1 Account Bet

Account Bet

Ascot 1.05

STONE OF DESTINY  7/1-15/2-8/1

Each Way

1/5th Odds 1-2-3

This was my 2nd choice bet
The bet I wanted to stake
Red Starlight e/w at Haydock
Is damaged by 2 non runners

Haydock is the easier to win
But had to rearrange stakes
Decided to keep it all simple
The 2 bets headline the day


Today's Message 

Shergar Cup Day

At the mercy of the elements
Lots of bad weather coming in
Had a sublime Thursday message
Followed by one Garbage Friday
But our last 3 bets finished P W P
So hope to extend that sequence
But lets not pretend it will be easy

8 Previews

Ascot 1.05
Redcar 1.15
Haydock 1.55
Newmarket 2.00
Ascot 2.15
Haydock 2.30
Redcar 4.35
Lingfield 5.10

Plenty of big priced selections
So hard to know how we will do
There are 2 possible main bets

Ascot 1.05

STONE OF DESTINY 7/1-15/2 - 8/1


Haydock 2.30
RED STARLIGHT 8/1 (1/4 Odds 2 places)

£4.00 Each Way

MUCHLY 11/2 - 6/1

£2.00 Win Bet

Ascot 1.05
STONE OF DESTINY 7/1-15/2 - 8/1

Mentioned him yesterday
Wanted to bet him if it was fast
Ascot have 2mm of overnight rain
Possible showers later on
But so far has not been much
On a windy day he should be fine
Given this is the opening race
I considered two saver options
Recon Mission 9/1 Green Power 9/1
But these are only optional savers

Haydock 2.30
RED STARLIGHT 8/1 (1/4 Odds 2 places)

£4.00 Each Way

MUCHLY 11/2 - 6/1

£2.00 Win Bet

Plans changed with 2 non runners
Original plan Red Starlight each way
Annoyingly have had to change tack
With only the 2 places available now
Not exactly a bomb proof profile
But a couple of the fancied horses
Have profiles weak in other areas
Not sure if she can deliver or not
But the primary reason for the bet
Her numbers over 8f on soft ground
Are completely dominant in the race

The best Plan
Could be on Betfair
£5 Red Starlight 8/1 Betfair
£5 Red Starlight 4/5 on the 4 places market
Obviously I can't go with that bet


Ascot 1.05
3/1 Danzeno, 6/1 Corinthia Knight, 7/1 Final Venture
7/1 Green Power, 8/1 Caspian Prince, Recon Mission
8/1 Stone Of Destiny, 10/1 Encore D'Or, 12/1 Foolaad
12/1 Lancelot Du Lac, 14/1 Street Parade, Tropics.

5f Handicap

Did some Generic trends midweek
No idea if these will work out or not

In all Shergar Cup races since 2000
Horses aged 8 or more
Are 0-43 in any and every race
Run at the Shergar Cup since 2000

CASPIAN PRINCE is 10 years old
LANCELOT DU LACK a 9yo with a break
Both of the 8 year olds
Come here without recent runs

Horses aged 7 or more
Absent more than 2 weeks
Have a 0-62 record in the Shergar Cup
DANZENO fails this
FOOLAAD fails this

FINAL VENTURE fails a generic statistic
CORINTHIAN KNIGHT does so as well
STREET PARADE is interesting
Even if no 3 year olds won this (0-6)
The ground puts me off him as well
Doesn't stay a yard past 5 furlongs
Rain and an uphill finish hurts him

Best Profile
Male horses aged 4-5-6
Running within 4 weeks
Beaten last time out
Not by more than 10 lengths
Class 2 Handicap last time
11 of the last 12 winners
Shared the same profile
Only 1 horse has it today

This was the right profile
But the ground is the problem

The Stewards Cup at Goodwood
Simply the best trial race for this 
The 2010 2015 2017 2018 winners
All came from the Stewards Cup

The problem is
He has no soft ground form

Don't really have a lot of options
STONE OF DESTINY 8/1 each way
Really was the only bet I wanted
But the rain is a serious problem
Which could cost him his chance
I suppose he might just handle it
But there is no evidence for that





Redcar 1.15

11/4 Calippo, 3/1 Maybellene, 6/1 Amnaa
13/2 Enjoy The Moment, 7/1 Mr Fudge, 10/1 Gin Gembre
10/1 Sparkling Breeze, 20/1 Beautrix, Not Another Word
20/1 Queens Blade, 33/1 Inver Silver, South Light
66/1 The Mystery Wizard, 100/1 Intrinsic Bond
100/1 Jakodobro

Selling race
2 year olds (6f)
12 past renewals

The sex of the winners

Fillies won the last 4 renewals
They won 8 of the last 9 renewals
All 12 of these winners
Were drawn in Stall 12 or lower
If you go for a low drawn filly
You'd have found 9 of 12 past winners
CALIPPO drawn 15 of 15 is risky
GIN GEMBRE also drawn a bit high

Decided to shortlist
The lower drawn fillies


MR FUDGE may be a male horse
But he too is drawn very well
If you look at the past male winners
They all had recent runs

Finished last at Hamilton
That was only 7 days ago
That was a much better race
He would have needed the run
He had the worst draw as well
His first two career runs
Had Racing Post Ratings of 69 71
More than enough to win sellers


MR FUDGE 11/2 - 6/1

Each Way

Haydock 1.55

13/2 Club Wexford, 7/1 Mayfair Spirit, Scofflaw
15/2 Young Fire, 8/1 King's Pavilion, 11/1 Al Erayg
12/1 Candelisa, Humble Gratitude, Mickey, Mikmak
12/1 Mount Ararat, Mustarrid, 16/1 First Flight,
16/1 Markazi, 20/1 Kuwait Currency

8f Handicap

Big field Handicap
Looks on the difficult side
But the same types keep winning it

Horses aged 3 and 4
Have dominated this race

Horses aged 5 or more
Have a 0-42 record in past renewals
Horses with over 16 runs
Have a 0-41 record in this

Also very interesting
The last 12 winners of this race
Were all drawn in stalls 1-2-3-4-5-6
Low drawn unexposed types win
Best Profile

Horses aged 3-4
Under 16 career starts
Drawn 1-2-3-4-5-6 last time
Beaten under 10 lengths last time
Coming from Class 4 or higher

The following are shortlisted
Matching or very close to the best profile


YOUNG FIRE has 73 days off
Not ideal but not a deal breaker
We have had absent winners in this
Has some sexy French form as well

MOUNT ARARAT has 60 days off
Also comes from only a Class 5
Do we want absent horses on soft
Think we should allow stall 8

Going to have to be a race
We use the safest of staking

Decided on this soft ground
Go with lower drawn horses
Who have good recent races
Ideally within the past 2 weeks
£2.50 Each Way MIKMAK 10/1

£2.50 Each Way KUWAIT CURRENCY 20/1

Newmarket 2.00

5/2 Thread Of Silver, 11/4 Leafhopper
3/1 Thanielle, 5/1 My Poem, 10/1 Call Me Katie
25/1 Fair Sabra, Fluttershy, Princess Siyouni.

2yo Fillies maiden (7f)

Every horse unraced
The market needs to guide is
But I wanted to oppose Leafhopper

LEAFHOPPER is sired by Dark Angel
If you look at the sires unraced 2yo's
Who race over 7f or more on grass
There is an unpleasant 2-133 record
The sire's Fillies doing this were 0-51
Every chance she runs out of petrol

CALL ME KATIE is her stablemate
Looks the second string behind her
THANIELLE could easily need the run
MY POEM could need the run as well
Her sire's unraced 2 year olds on turf
Running over 7f or more are just 2-84

THREAD OF SILVER is favourite
With a questionable 2nd favourite
Nothing too obvious elsewhere
May be worth following the market



Win Bet

Ascot 2.15

4/1 Mandarin, 11/2 Big Kitten, Indianapolis
13/2 Melting Dew, 7/1 Reshoun, 8/1 Hyanna
10/1 Breath Caught, 10/1 Genetics, 10/1 Koeman,
12/1 Badenscoth, 14/1 Restorer.

12f Handicap
12 past renewals

Best Profile

Horses aged 4 or 5
Running within 8 weeks
Beaten under 8 lengths
Coming from 1m 6f or shorter
Carrying 9st 11lbs or less

Horses with the above profile
Won 10 of the 12 renewals
Returned a 10-41 record
The following all share this


Was hoping for better than that
KOEMAN probably won't stay
INDIANAPOLIS has an unsafe profile
Combing his absence and weight
Has to be a Guess from here


£4.00 Each Way GENETICS 10/1

£2.00 Win Bet MELTING DEW 5/1

Haydock 2.30

15/8 Miss O Connor, 11/4 Feliciana De Vega
11/2 Muchly, 9/1 Red Starlight, 16/1 Contrive,
16/1 New Day Dawn 25/1 Maid For Life.
Listed race

Fillies and Mares over 8f

The favourite looks talented
But she fails an interesting angle
MISS O CONNOR is a 4yo
She races raced only twice
Yet comes back just 9 days later

Listed and Group races 
Any distance
Any Sex
Any time of year

Horses aged 4 or more
Under 5 Lifetime starts
Running within 11 days
Have a 0-58 record
MISS O CONNOR the 59th to try

Nothing at all wrong
With lightly raced fillies winning
But coming back as quickly as her
Suggests this could be a problem

The problem here will be
How best to exploit this angle
FELICIANA DE VEGA is interesting
But with 2 races and absent 237 days
How fit and ready she will be ?
The 2013 winner won first time out
She smells fancied in the market
But none won this so inexperienced
They may not want to know her about
On bad ground with a long absence
Once thought of as a Guineas filly
Don't doubt she may have the class
But Haydock on soft is a concern
For a lightly raced absent filly

MAID FOR LIFE lacks the numbers

No past winner of this race
Had under 3 previous races

MISS O CONNOR fails this
FELICIANA DE VEGA  fails that too

CONTRIVE looks beatable


RED STARLIGHT has 16 runs
Thats a bit more exposed than ideal
But she scores heavily on this angle

Racing Post Ratings
8f races
Soft Ground
105 Red Starlight
101 Red Starlight
99 Contrive
96 Red Starlight
91 Red Starlight - Miss O Connor
87 Red Starlight
86 Red Starlight
81 Muchly   
80 Contrive
77 Contrive - Miss O Connor
68 New Day Dawn
5/1 Muchly   

RED STARLIGHT dominates this
The most prove under conditions
Comes from the same Newbury race
As the 2014 did before winning

Now only 7 runners

Damages my each way bet


£4.00 Each Way RED STARLIGHT 8/1

£2.00 Win Bet MUCHLY 6/1

Redcar 4.35

7/2 Vintage Rose, 4/1 Agravain, The Fiddler
7/1 Nearly There, 8/1 Lincoln Tale, 9/1 Casa Comigo
12/1 Flower Power, 14/1 So Hi Cardi
16/1 Midnight Warrior, 20/1 Barb's Prince.

1m 6f Handicap
Horses rated 60 or lower

VINTAGE ROSE is unsafe
Some problems I can't get past
Firstly she is sired by Cityscape
Who has not bred a winner past 12f
Not keen on the mix in her profile
Of just 4 runs and a recent race

Horses aged 3
Coming from 12f or shorter
Under 5 career starts
Running within 15 days
Show a 0-31 record 
all year round
VINTAGE ROSE has this profile

FLOWER POWER is an 8yo
Just ran too poorly too recently
CASA COMIGO has 185 days off
Not from a stable you could rely on
SO HI CARDI is a filly with 4 runs
Her numbers are on the low side
Too far down the weights for me

THE FIDDLER is well backed
But as a 4yo with 14 previous runs
Career best Racing Post Rating of 60
Which was on her racecourse debut
Suggests limited ability and no scope
She may win but 3 year olds are better

LINCOLN TALE has a chance
NEARLY THERE is a positive
AGRAVAIN could be the one
Excuses for his Ripon defeat
Some argue the race came too soon
Some argue it was not a track he likes
I feel he went off too quickly last time
In a face 2 grades better than this
His age group score best in these races


Option 1


Each Way

Option 2

£8.50 Win Bet AGRAVAIN 3/1
£1.50 Win Bet NEARLY THERE 7/1

Option 1 is safer
But not suitable to everyone

Lingfield 5.10

11/10  Albanita, 4/1 Oliver Hardy
8/1 Arthur Pendragon, Geomatrician
10/1 Fayetta, 12/1 Earl Of Harrow
20/1 Hummdinger

1m 5f Handicap

Awkward 7 runner race

ALBANITA the hot favourite
Could be on the bounce here
Just 1 run in the last 12 months
Coming back only 7 days later

Looked at similar races in August
Horses with 1 run that season
Running within 17 days are 0-20

If I look at 12 + Handicaps
Any time of year
Horses with 1 run that season
Coming from 10f or shorter
Running within 14 days
I find a 0-30 record
ALBANITA has this profile
Suggests the bounce is at play
I can't bet her at a short price
When she also has topweight

OLIVER HARDY won last time
That was 12f on fast ground in Class 6
This is 13f and in a higher class
Sired by Foxwedge will she stay ?
Have my doubts with an absence

Could be wrong
The above two could dominate
And there is no each way cover
But going to look elsewhere
FAYETTA was thrashed 6 days ago

ARTHUR PENDRAGON is interesting
See lots of positives in his chance
God help us trained by Brian Meehan
GEOMATRICIAN is also a positive

Betting Both
Means we get 7/2 if either win



£1 Win Bet GEOMATRICIAN 11/2 - 12/1

£1 Win Bet EARL OF HARROW 11/1-12/1



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