Mathematician 2300
Saturday August 29th
0 Account Bet
0 Selection
1 Profile & Preview bet
0 Negatives
9 Race Discussed
A punishing schedule today and some meetings
feel like they are never going to end. There are
8 races on both Newmarket and Beverley's card
and the Puppet Masters with their hidden hands
will be pleased their manipulation of the fixture
list has produced a schedule few can cope with.
Today's Bet
Wexford 5.45
KALOPSIA 2/1
Win Bet
9/4 Bet365
2/1 Ladbrokes Hills Corals VC Stan J
2/1 Skybet Tote Boyles Betfred SpBet
Highly unusual for me to preview a Bumper
never mind advise a bet in one. This might
well backfire but I feel I have good reasons
and a 2/1 winner pays the same in any race.
This is a controversial choice of Saturday bet.
I am just trying to think outside the box
Sunday Message Tomorrow
It will be a Sports Betting and Racing Message
It wont be a heavy message before a Bank Holiday
An Ante Post bet is very likely
Should be a message with a lot of variety
T o d a y s M e s s a g e
Goodwood 2.00
Hawksmoor 6/1 Each Way
One of todays potential bets was in this race
as it does have history that points you to the
lighter raced horses like Hawksmoor. My gut
feeling is that he is strangely weak and he is
the sort of bet you'd be happy getting shorter
odds about. My next option is the same price
in the 2.15pm yet may have less to beat.
Newmarket 2.15
Noble Peace 6/1 Each Way
I think three horses dominate this 6f maiden.
All 3 are positives and there can only be a guess
Mine is Noble Peace as I have been tracking him
If he wins I can't claim and great credit for the bet
Given this is less competitive than the 2pm
I would rather have this bet than the 2pm bet
Newmarket 3.25
Naadirr 8/1 Win Bet
Ninjago 10/1 Saver
This is a very tough listed race. Pricewise have
gone with Naadirr. Did I read somewhere that it
was 50 bets since they had a winner ? I have to
agree with them here. The obvious worry must
be the fitness doubt. Thats why I have not gone
each way and drafted in a saver. I like him for a
different reasons. On Racing Post Ratings he's
completely dominant at this trip and worth a bet.
Would be a risky account bet but there is a case
for him despite a long absence at a good price.
Goodwood 3.45
I certainly won't be advising a bet in this race
but it should be interesting. I have discovered
a brand new breeding stat against Kodi Bear.
Now it might not work out in such a small field
but it is at least interesting. I thought about an
official negative on him. I haven't been doing
many negatives recently. I like to be mentally
tuned up like a prize fighter when I give them.
I won't risk a big negative on an unproven stat.
I have a reasonable chance in the 4.05
I think the favourite is vulnerable here
Fantastic trainer but I don't fancy her
I think we should get the 5.10 winner
He will be odds on though so leaving him
This just leaves this Bumper Bet
Wexford 5.45
KALOPSIA 9/4
In a way I am glad I can't get 5/2 as I would have
faced a horrible temptation to bet her each way.
There are 8 runners and if she failed this would
be a sickening bet to lose that way. There is an
interesting case to bet her to win anyway. I like
bets at reasonable prices where there is maybe
just one horse that can beat you. Yesterday we
had a similar situation and I do fancy her a lot.
D a i l y N e g a t i v e s
No Negatives Today
Results of Negatives
20 correct bets from 24
F r i d a y s S u m m a r y
We had our first bet of the week yesterday
and in the spirit of most of August's bets it
was another case of stakes returned as we
finished second each way at 4/1. CADEAUX
made the running. That probably increased
his chance of winning it but made the place
side more vulnerable. I would have liked a
much faster pace but he raced well in front
and went to 1.23 in running before he was
caught by the favourite. Shame about that
but it was 1/4 the odds and we broke level.
The message went L P W L L P which was
not as good as I wanted. I think two of the
losers went too too fast and when betting
each way it can be so frustrating when the
place gets sacrificed by going too quickly.
Some relief that the main bet did not have
that problem and in the end placed easily.
P r o f i l e & P r e v i e w s
Beverley 1.45
6/4 Grand Beauty, 3/1 Exentricity, 100/30 Alpha Delphini
4/1 Eye Glass, 25/1 Lady Lisa Jayne, 33/1 Compton Magic
33/1 Mini Minstrel, 100/1 Forest Missile.
I can't commit to anything here. If I had a bet it
would be a PLACE ONLY bet. this would be on
the biggest price of two horses. Alpha Delphini
or Exentricity. Which horse is the biggest price
to place would be the bet I think is best. That's
probably going to be ALPHA DELPHINI to place.
W e x f o r d 1.55
4/1 Catalyst, 4/1 Georgia On My Mind, 9/2 Alveena
9/2 Our Rachael, 7/1 Ask Me Nicely, 8/1 Star Street
10/1 Miss Mary, 14/1 Honor Oak, 16/1 Misty Lady
16/1 Untapped Spectrum.
This is a maiden for all aged fillies over 9f
There are 70 similar races in August and September
One of the problems we have is the draw
Wexford hardly ever has fields as big as this
Impossible to know whether there is a draw bias
CATALYST drops down from 12f
Not an easy task having already had 6 runs
My angles just raise a doubt about her profile
ASK ME NICELY only has 1 run this season
The only horses to overcome that had under 5 runs
ASK ME NICELY has 7 now so isn't like a winner
HONOR OAK is a negative
OUR RACHAEL drops down from 12f
With 1 run I feel she is beatable
Selection
There are a few with a chance
ALVEENA would be my choice
Not a race for big stakes
What I would say is this
There is a reserve runner called AVIZARE
If she runs then she would be a saver
Selection
ALVEENA 4/1
Each Way
(If reserve Avizare runs I'd prefer her)
G o o d w o o d 2.00
3/1 Fireglow, 7/2 Belvoir Bay, 4/1 Epsom Icon
6/1 Hawksmoor, 8/1 Light Up Our World, 14/1 Dutch Mist
14/1 Manhattan Skyline, 14/1 Show Stealer
20/1 Dutch Heiress.
The Prestige Stakes is a Group 3 race
It is for 2 year olds over 7f
There is a long history to this race
It has always been won by horses with 1-2-3 runs
Look at the last 17 winners and their career starts
3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 3 2 2 1 1 3 3 2
Horses that had 4 or more previous runs are 0-34
If this statistic holds then one of these 3 will win
HAWKSMOOR
LIGHT UP OUR WORLD
EPSOM ICON
I wouldn't fully trust this statistic for this reason
We don't have any once raced horses this year
Horses with 1 run score very well in this race
Without any of them it improves the chances of all others
Not sure why lighter raced horses dominate
Maybe horses with 4 + runs have done too much racing
Maybe the better ones are in Group 1-2 races by Now
Maybe the poor ones are too late to the party
If they haven't reached this Grade after 4 + runs
Then they are vulnerable to better lightly raced types
Complicated issues but the 0-34 record doesn't like
I would be uncomfortable with a horse with 6 + runs
DUTCH HEIRESS has 6 runs
He is questionable on my breeding stats
DUTCH HEIRESS also comes from a Nursery
No past winner of this race came via nursery handicaps
BELVOIR BAY also does this
SHOW STEALER does this
DUTCH MIST also does this
DUTCH MIST has 5 runs anyway so unlike any winners
I have breeding issues about him staying in ground and class
BELVOIR BAY comes from a Nursery
Can we be sure he will stay this far in the ground
She was impressive last time but it was only a handicap
She is not a big horse anyway
SHOW STEALER is unsafe from a 6f nursery
Something also interests me about her
Look at Recent Racing Post Ratings
Recent winners had achieved these numbers
These are their best numbers prior to winning this race
100 90 91 106 100 102
The last 6 winners had ratings of 91 or more
SHOW STEALER has only ever managed an 87
MANHATTAN SKYLINE's ratings are low as well
With 5 runs he is not like any winners
LIGHT UP OUR WORLD has only managed 78 ratings
She may be fine with just 2 career starts
She has a mountain to climb on the ratings
FIREGLOW has 4 runs
Thats the only problem with her profile
We know all past winners had fewer runs
Shortlist
EPSOM ICON has 3 runs so is fine
He has acheieved enough on the numbers
There is one statistical problem with him
EPSOM ICON comes from a Listed race
Look at the last 18 winners
10 winners came from maidens
4 winners came from Group races
4 winners came from Conditions races
Horses from Listed races were 0-22
EPSOM ICON does fail that 0-22 record
HAWKSMOOR has a sound profile
2 Runs and has achieved enough on the numbers
He has a bit to find with Fireglow
History tells us his type do win this race
Selection
HAWKSMOOR 6/1
Each Way
N e w m a r k e t 2.15
3/1 Venturous, 4/1 Noble Peace, 5/1 Kitaaby
8/1 Equistar, 10/1 Awesome Quality, 10/1 Nomadic
12/1 Arithmetic, 12/1 Excellent Alibi, 12/1 Grey Morning
12/1 Third Rock, 66/1 Lucia Sciarra.
This is a 6f maiden
I feel the 1st 2nd 3rd in the market are all strong
I like them all and feel one ought to win
I would have liked a negative amongst them
Without one I'd be surprised if the winner came elsewhere
Hard to separate the 3 given the draw they have
Much comes down to stable reliability and price
KITAABY has the unreliable stable
We don't know how he will fare on the ground either
VENTUROUS has every chance but is the shortest price
NOBLE PEACE has the same profile as the 2010 winner
After 3 runs he could be ready to win
NOBLE PEACE looked good on his debut at Goodwood
His trainer had an excuse on his 2nd start
Said the horse had been suffering from sore shins
Described him as "fresh and a little bit fat"
He had a 53 day absence that day and probably needed it
Last time out he ran into a very smart horse when second
They pulled clear of the 3rd who won next time out
He was also badly drawn last time as Stall 1 here struggles
He should give us a massive run for our money
Selection
NOBLE PEACE 6/1
Each Way
N e w m a r k e t 3.25
5/2 Lucky Kristale, 4/1 Portamento, 6/1 Wet Sail
13/2 Dinkum Diamond, 8/1 Polybius, 9/1 Naadirr
10/1 Ninjago, 12/1 Golden Amber
33/1 Zanetto.
This is a Listed race over 6f
Racing Post Ratings
Since 2014
6f races only
116 Naadirr
112 Naadirr
111 Naadirr - Naadirr - Ninjago
110 Dinkum Diamond
109 Portamento - Lucky Kristale - Ninjago
108 Lucky Kristale - Dinkum Diamond
107 Portamento - Ninjago
106 Dinkum Diamond - Polybius - Polybius
104 Dinkum Diamond
103 Dinkum Diamond
102 Wet Sail - Dinkum Diamond
101 Golden Amber - Lucky Kristale
This is not a good race for 3 year olds
Only 2 from 40 have won and many were fancied
WET SAIL is 3 and has just 2 runs this season
You want at least 3 runs this season in this race
WET SAIL is underraced and not for me
PORTAMENTO is the other 3 year old
Better chance but not convinced myself
He has yet to stamp his authority above handicaps
GOLDEN AMBER has the same problem
His numbers are not good enough
CAPE FACTOR is underraced this season
ZANETTO is rated far too low
DINKUM DIAMOND comes from a 5f race
None of the 17 past winners managed that
As a 7 year old I don't feel the love
Not Drawn 1 and not when no winner came from 5f
LUCKY KRISTALE must be respected rated 107
No filly has won this race aged 4 or more though
Do we really want a 4yo filly absent 50 days
I looked at every Listed Group race over 5f 6f 7f
That was run in August September October
4yo fillies absent over a month
Having over 11 career starts
I found a 0-31 record with these types
She and her trainer are inconsistent as well
POLYBIUS is 4 and has a lot to offer
Quite like his profile with one or two worries
Only one race above handicaps worries me
That was on the sand and he was beaten in it
Not sure he has the class and needs to improve
Not convinced 3 runs this year will be enough
Go back to the York May meeting
POLYBIUS was being thrashed in a handicap at 14/1
Others on the same day were in Group 2 races
NINJAGO is exposed but has some good numbers
Exposed horses from handicaps were 1-19
Those aged 4 like NINJAGO were 1-4
He is similar to the 2006 winner
NINJAGO does have twice his absence though
NAADIRR easily tops my Racing Post Ratings table
Top 2 numbers and 3 of the top 4
You can argue he is the Class horse
NAADIRR does have an 89 day absence
If he can defy that absence he can win this
Horses absent over 50 days are 0-16 in this race
Only a few were fancied and only a few were 4yo's
It is a worry but he is a good price
And the Numbers speak volumes
Selection
NAADIRR 8/1 Win Bet
NINJAGO 10/1 Saver
G o o d w o o d 3.45
4/6 Kodi Bear, 5/1 Breton Rock,
5/1 Cable Bay, 12/1 Fire Ship, 14/1 Gabrial
16/1 Captain Cat.
The Celebration Mile is a Group 2 over 8f
I never seem to cover this race
It has just never been a race that offered me much
I was going to leave it alone today as well
I was conscious all week KODI BEAR would be short
It was a case of not wanting to bet him or oppose him
Then I just ran a few breeding statistics
I found something that may or may not be significant
KODI BEAR is sired by Kodiac
Horses sired by Kodiac
Running over 8f or more
Running on Good to soft or worse
There was a 7-145 record with these horses
However all 7 winners ran in Class 5 or lower
Those that raced in Class 4 or higher were 0-60
I then started to ask myself
Can we really be sure KODI BEAR will get home today
When running on Soft ground against Group horses
Obviously we have to factor in the small field
And factor in only 2 opponents are under 14/1
And factor in his trainer says he is the best he's trained
But a 0-60 record does seem to raise legitimate doubts
And because of that I am opposing KODI BEAR at odds on
If that is a mistake - then at least it is a cheap one
I just wish I had safe and clear alternatives
Is BRETON ROCK's main target the 7f Group race in 2 weeks
Can I trust the 4 year old CABLE BAY ?
4 year olds have won just 1 past renewal in 17 in a 1-28 record
Thats not great but he is like that winner
Chic 2004 won aged 4 coming from the same race as him
I will leave the choice of bet up to you
Option 1
CABLE BAY 6/1 Half Stakes to win
BRETON ROCK 6/1 Half Stakes to win
Option 2
KODI BEAR - Lay him at 8/11
Beverley 4.05
9/4 Sealife, 4/1 Rib Reserve, 5/1 Laurence
6/1 Peterhouse, 8/1 Arcano Gold, 11/1 Mister Rockandroll
12/1 Moonlightnavigator, 16/1 Groor, 20/1 Chadic.
This is a 3yo handicap over 10f
Beverely has 12 renewals of this race
This favourite Sealife only has 3 runs
The 12 previous winners of this had the following runs
12 9 6 6 13 12 11 8 8 5 8 5
The 12 previous winners of this all had 5 + runs
Not a stable I like to take on to be honest
This is not a track for inexperienced horses though
My angles clearly say choose something else
LAURENCE has a far safer profile
RIN RESERVE has a safe profile too
MISTER ROCKANDROLL shouldn't be underestimated
Therein lies the frustration for me in this race
I am happy to oppose the favourite
I just can't split the above three horses well enough
Forced to choose it would be LAURENCE
Selection
LAURENCE 4/1
Each Way
B e v e r l e y 5.10
11/10 Langlauf, 7/4 Zaina Rizeena,
10/1 Ninetta, 25/1 Buteo Bai, 25/1 Lady Bacchus
25/1 Lady Nahema, 33/1 Bush Babe, 66/1 Ingleby Erin.
This is a 2yo maiden over an extended 7f
Recent winners had the following runs
2 2 1 2 0 2 2 2
The odd lightly raced horse wins this maiden
If you get a choice I always go with experience here
It is just a track that seems to reward runs
NINETTA is not for me as an unraced filly
ZAINA RIZEENA has raced once and did well
I just feel seduced by the experienced types here
If BELLE VALE runs again after yesterday he wants respect
LANGLAUF with 3 runs would be my choice
I think he should have too much for the lighter raced types
Selection
LANGLAUF 10/11
Win Bet
W e x f o r d 5.45
5/4 Miss Me Now, 7/4 Kalopsia, 6/1 Present Flower
12/1 Ellie´s Choice, 14/1 Westinmare, 16/1 Elusive Ivy
33/1 Little Trixie, 66/1 Tibbie´s Court.
This is a 2m bumper
Must be the first Bumper preview in 2 years
I must be off my rocker here
Two masters of the turf
MISS ME NOW is trained by Willie Mullins
KALOPSIA is trained by Aidan O'Brien
Both horses won last time out
Not sure MISS ME NOW should be odds on
I suppose you can say the trip drop is an issue
Drops from 2m 2f on Heavy to 2m on Good-Yielding
That is no certainty to be a help
What bothers me more is this
He was £8,500 to buy
He is owned by a Racing Club
Mullins is too shrewd to give a good horse to a syndicate
She surely must have limitations
She beat nothing when winning last time
The runner up was 0-9 in Bumpers
She is probably just a fun syndicate horse
The question I would ask is this
Can Owner KALOPSIA be out of the frame ?
5/2 each way could be a steal
She has been unlucky more than once
She came good and won easily last time
In the absence of that price she looks the value anyway
KALOPSIA has extra experience and does have ability
PRESENT FLOWER deserves at least a mention
She won a bumper last time
This is harder and work to do on the figures
You couldn't rule her out of hand though
I don't see this as Mullins v O'Brien
I see it as JP McManus v The Blue Blood Racing Club
I fancy KALOPSIA to beat this odds on favourite
Selection
KALOPSIA 9/4
Win bet or Each Way.
Your Choice.
Best Wishes
Guy Ward
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk
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