Mathematician Betting Horse Racing Analysis and Tip Message

Mathematician 3292
Saturday August 3rd

9 Races Discussed

1 Account Bet

Galway 4.45

£4.50 Each Way MAKE A CHALLENGE 5/1

£1.00 Win Bet WAR HERO 8/1

1/4 Odds 1-2-3-4

Today's Message

Final Day of Goodwood
Galway finishes tomorrow
Both tracks get most coverage
As they have done all week
Beautiful tracks classy racing
But will be glad to get back to normal

Thirsk 1.45
Goodwood 1.50
Goodwood 2.25
Doncaster 3.30
Galway 3.35
Goodwood 3.40
Galway 4.10
Galway 4.45
Goodwood 4.50

This particular Saturday
Always a pretty tough day

Overdue a Saturday winner
Hoping we can get one today
These are the main options

Goodwood 1.50

£3.00 Each Way Dark Shot 20/1
£2.00 Each Way Blue De Vega 16/1

Back in 2016
Dark Shot cost me far too much
Decided never to bet or tip him again
Spent 2017 2018 219 without a win
Must have saved more in 3 years
Than I lost on him back as a 3yo
This could be the day he finally wins
Hard race but like my angles in this

Galway 4.45

£4.50 Each Way MAKE A CHALLENGE 5/1
£1.00 Win Bet WAR HERO 8/1

1/4 Odds 1-2-3-4

Fascinating but competitive
The angles make this interesting
The winner usually has a recent run
Some draw stats add extra interest
But there is a high luck factor here


Goodwood Has 2 handicaps
Where in each of these races
One horse has the fittest profile
Either horse could be a bet

Goodwood 2.25

CHARLES KINGSLEY 5/1

Each Way

Goodwood 4.50

£9 Win Bet WARNING FIRE 7/2

£1 Win Bet BAYROOT 7/1

In relation to their opposition
WARNING FIRE in the 4.50pm
Has the strongest chance
She has 5 runs since July
No other horse in the race
Has more than 1 run in that time

The problem with this bet
She is only 7/2 with 13 runners
So rather than bet her each way
Decided to go win only and saver

Choice of main bet
As ever subject to some luck

Friday's Summary

There was no main bet yesterday
Decided against the two options
Perfection 14/1 each way placed
Ran a great race looked a winner
Good Earth 5/2 just ran a stinker
Possibly didn't handle the surface
That was the main disappointment
We certainly dodged a bullet there
Could have combined both horses
The suggested way of betting both
Would have simply returned stakes
Message finished P L L W L P W L
Level Stakes probably little in that
But I made Good Earth my best bet
Which I expect spoilt that message
Had a few decent moments overall
Pleased I did not stake Good Earth
But the race damaged the message

PROFILES & PREVIEWS

Thirsk 1.45

3/1 Instantly, 7/2 Romantic Vision
4/1 Wonderwork, 11/2 Maurice Dancer
11/2 Not On Your Nellie, 10/1 Norton Lad
10/1 Shadow Leader, 50/1 Northern Grace
50/1 Sombra De Mollys, Tenbobmillionaire.

5f Novice

Do not see a safe option

Wanted to oppose the unraced
But which ones and what with ?

WONDERWORK is unraced
Well backed and trainer likes him

But 5f Thirsk races
Run in June onwards
Show unraced 2 year olds
Drawn in stall 7 or higher
Have a 0-81 in the last 20 years

The problem here
The experienced types look average
INSTANTLY each way is an option
But he does look average at best

If you forced me to play
I would have a place only bet
INTRINSIC to place around 4/5
Seems fair enough with 2 prep runs
The last of which came 7 days ago
Given a poor unraced record
And the above debut/draw statistic
Probably doesn't have the class to win
But a fair price to grab a place in this

Selection

Option 1
INTRINSIC 4/1
Each Way

Option 2
INTRINSIC 4/5 +
Place Bet

I prefer Option 2
But not everyone can get on

Goodwood 1.50

10/1 Ballyquin, Boy In The Bar, 11/1 Get The Rhythm
11/1 Tinto, 12/1 King Robert, 14/1 Gabrial The Devil
14/1 Puds, 16/1 Poyle Vinnie, Tommy G, 18/1 Secretinthepark
18/1 Somewhere Secret, 20/1 Dark Shot, Gabrial The Saint
22/1 Paddy Power, 25/1 Blue De Vega, 25/1 Count Otto,
25/1 Duke Of Firenze, Mokaatil, Powerallied, Venturous,
28/1 Brian The Snail, 33/1 Busby, 33/1 Lightning Charlie,
33/1 Primo's Comet.

6f Handicap
Stewards Cup Consolation

June July August
6f Handicaps (Class 2)
Over 7 runners

Horses aged 4
Coming from 5f races
Have a 0-122 record
GABRIAL THE DEVIL fails this 0-122 angle
GABRIAL THE SAINT fails this 0-122 angle
COUNT OTTO fails this 0-122 angle

June to December
6f Handicaps
Class 2 races
Horses aged 8 or more
Coming from 5f handicaps
Have a 0-113 record in them
DUKE OF FIRENZE fails this 0-143 angle
POYLE VINNIE also fails this 0-143 angle
SECRETINTHEPARK also fails it as well

TINTO is a 3yo
Don't see him getting home here

PUDS is well backed and fancied
But a 4yo filly absent over 8 weeks
Hard to like in a Class 2 handicap

When previewing this race
Tend to use the same angles
Which provide us with a shortlist

Avoid 3 year olds
Avoid 4 year olds absent 8 + days
Avoid 1-2 runs this season
Avoid horses beaten 10 + lengths
Horses from 5f need a recent run
They need to be aged 5 or 6 years old
They need to have bee beaten over 5f
Ignore horses absent 6 + weeks
Last time winners must be aged 5-6
And also have a run within 2 weeks
Avoid horses with <13 career runs
Horses aged 7 + need 5 + runs this year
Horses aged 6 + need 4 + runs this year

The following horses
Have survived these angles

BLUE DE VEGA
DARK SHOT
MOKAATIL
PADDY POWER
LIGHTNING CHARLIE
TOMMY G

Go back to 2015
Look at all 6f Handicaps here
With more than 10 runners

Horses drawn 1 to 11 are 19-231
Horses drawn 12 or more 2-133

High Draws may be a problem
PADDY POWER has stall 22
So taking him off the shortlist
TOMMY G may be badly drawn in 20
BLUE DE VEGA has stall 13
Maybe thats forgivable
But he has never won over 6f
MOKAATIL is not draw that well
Has a 7lbs claimer riding as well
And just looks more of a 5f horse
LIGHTNING CHARLIE is avoidable
Not really running that well
Never won in the class before

Shortlist

DARK SHOT 20/1

Really fast horse but hardly wins

Back in his younger days
I lost money on him a few times
Thankfully decided to write him off early
Went through 2017 2018 and 2019
Without winning any of his races
Last win 25 runs ago back in 2016

No lower in the weights
So this is a real leap of faith
But he loves fast ground
He was 4th in this race last year
Not a bad effort drawn in stall 1
If the reason why he has not won
Is that he really needs 6f these days
Then he could end a long barren spell

Can't be trusted so split staking this

Selection

£3.00 Each Way DARK SHOT 20/1

£2.00 Each Way BLUE DE VEGA 14/1

Goodwood 2.25

4/1 King's Advice, 5/1 Corgi, 6/1 Bartholomeu Dias
7/1 Charles Kingsley, 7/1 Outbox, 9/1 Proschema
10/1 Desert Skyline, 14/1 Shailene, 16/1 Top Tug
20/1 BScarlet Dragon, What A Welcome, 25/1 Island Brave
40/1 Hermoso Mundo.

Class 2 Handicap 1m 6f

Goodwood has 12 renewals
29 similar races elsewhere

If I look at 4 year olds
Who come from 12f races
Absences more than 22 days
There is a 0-71 record
CORGI fails this 0-71 record
SHAILENE fails this 0-71 record

SCARLET DRAGON is wrong from 10f
TOP TUG is older than ideal
ISLAND BRAVE wrong from Group 3

BARTHOLEMES DIAS is unsafe
He has raced just once in 106 days
Horses with over 8 career starts
With just 1 run in the last 12 weeks
Have a 0-43 record in these races

Recent winners of this race
Had 43 23 24 26 16 23 11 18 19 11 11 8 runs
OUTBOX only has 5 career starts
Asking a lot and not like any winners

Shortlist

WHAT A WELCOME - Not out of it at big price
DESERT SKYLINE will do well to win off 108
PROSCHEMA - Stall 1 to overcome
KING'S ADVICE - Won 7 of his last 8 races
CHARLES KINGSLEY - Will a short absence help ?

CHARLES KINGSLEY
Looks the fittest horse
Having raced 3 times in July
Most raced just once in that time

KING'S ADVICE 4/1 could be a saver

PROSCHEMA 7/1 could be a saver
Depends how much safety you like
How much cover you want to have

Selection

CHARLES KINGSLEY 5/1

Each Way

Doncaster 3.30

10/11 First In Line, 3/1 Jomrok, 4/1 Wise Ruler
14/1 Hermosura, Honey Lane, 25/1 Double Esprit
Gabrials Boy, Red Secret, 50/1 Capla Huntress
50/1 Dreams And Visions, 66/1 Ezzrah, Ningaloo
100/1 Red Derek.

10f Novice Stakes

Should be a 3 horse race

FIRST LINE 10/11
JOMROCK 7/2
WISE RULER 4/1

The only runners under 20/1
The outsiders full of unraced horses
Several look like having handicap runs

JOMROCK is sired by Mukhadram
Ground worries me with this horse
None of his sires runners so far
Have won beyond 8f on softer ground
WISE RULER has a long absence
Gelding and lacking a run on soft ground

FIRST IN LINE should be too progressive
Opposed him on debut from a horrible draw
Won well last time and can follow up

Selection

FIRST IN LINE 10/11-4/5

Win Bet

Galway 3.35

5/2 Time Tunnel, 11/4 Lancaster House, 13/2 Darkened
7/1 Call Me Dolly, 9/1 Vocatus, 10/1 Cerberus, 12/1 Bodak
16/1 Mean Fomhair, 20/1 Queen Amidala, 33/1 Border Battle
33/1 Canning, Ramiro, 40/1 Rockview Roman, 50/1 Farnese
50/1 King Citric, Yalla Go, 66/1 Jungle Gazelle, La Capacite.

8f Maiden

TIME TUNNEL has 3 runs
Would have to be a positive
Much depends on darker horses

TIME TUNNEL had excuses last time
Had an impossible draw at Killarney
Bit my angles and her trainer last time
Pointed out the draw killed her chance
Good second and that is upgrade-able
Tried to make all from a horrible draw

Depends on what she is up against
VOCALISED has a long absence
With 6 runs he is quite exposed now
I would see him as an unlikely winner

LANCASTER HOUSE is unraced
Not many win on their debuts here
None have done so from Stall 1
I would see that as a lot to ask
BODAK looks drawn out of this

CEREBUS could be a threat
But there is a fitness doubt here
CALL ME DOLLY ran well on debut
DARKENED has a chance
She ran really well on debut

TIME TUNNEL is not the biggest
They will desperately want a win
This could be her chance for that
I would see her as a sensible bet
In an each way double

Option 1 is there
For anyone who does not want this

Selection

Option 1

£8.50 Win Bet TIME TUNNEL 9/4
£1.50 Win Bet DARKENED 7/1

Option 2

Galway 3.35 - TIME TUNNEL 9/4
Galway 4.10 - ROYAL COUNTY DOWN 9/4
Each Way Double

I would choose Option 2

Goodwood 3.40

9/1 Khaadem, 10/1 Flavius Titus, Justanotherbottle
12/1 Spanish City, 14/1 Cosmic Law, Gunmetal, Summerghand
16/1 Growl, Gulliver, Open Wide, Vanbrugh, 20/1 Air Raid
20/1 Baron Bolt, George Bowen, Raucous, Soldier's Minute
25/1 Aljady, Arecibo, 25/1 Buridan, 25/1 Embour, 25/1 Kimifive
25/1 Lake Volta, Ornate, Stone Of Destiny, 25/1 True Mason,
33/1 El Hombre, Hyperfocus, Sir Maximilian.

Stewards Cup

Dropped this race years ago
Just too difficult for a strong bet

Looked at the market leaders
KHAADEM is only a 3 year old
Not an age group that scores well
Coming from a Group race not ideal

If we look at 3 year olds
In this race and the consolation race
They have a modest 3-69 record
Those with 8st 13lbs or more are 0-40
KHAADEM has 9st 6lbs in this race

JUSTANOTHERBOTTLE is wrong
For an exposed older horse
Just 2 runs this season is not enough
Or at least hasn't been in similar races

Horses aged 6 or more
With under 4 runs that season
Have a 0-62 record in then
GUNMETAL has this problem
Horses with over 18 runs
With under 4 runs that season
Have a 0-86 record in then
GUNMETAL fails this as well
BARON BOLT also underraced

VANBRUGH could be the one
But horses aged 4 from 7f races
Have a 0-48 record in these 2 races

FLAVIUS TITUS is hard to read
I've looked at similar 4 year olds
Some won like him absent 35-42 days
FLAVIUS TITUS has 56 days off though
Big stable so not ruled him out at all

But going to split stake the race
Requiring just 1 place to not lose
I like both horses and profiles

Selection

£2.50 Each Way SPANISH CITY 14/1

£2.00 Each Way SUMMERGHAND 12/1

£1.00 Win Bet FLAVIUS TITUS 12/1

Galway 4.10

15/8 Royal County Down, 7/2 Justina
6/1 Yesterdayoncemore 8/1 Kocasandra
9/1 Mythologic, 10/1 Formyboys,
14/1 St George's Head, 16/1 Bellsinthewood
16/1 In From The Cold.

7f Nursery

This race is usually won
By horses with 1-2-3 career starts

Past winners had these runs
3 2 2 3 3 5 3 2 2 2 3

Horses with 4 or more runs
Have a 1-40 record in this race

YESTERDAYONCEMORE has 4 runs
ST GEORGE'S HEAD has 6 runs
KOCASANDRA has 6 runs
FORMYBOYS has 4 runs
I'd stay with lighter raced types

ROYAL COUNTY DOWN is one
No surprise if he defied topweight

JUSTINA with 2 runs is respected
But as a filly down in distance
Having just 2 career starts
She has more to prove

7f Nurserys
Any Class
Any time of year
Fillies from 8f races
Under 4 career starts
Running within 27 days
Return a 0-45 record
JUSTINA shares this 0-45 profile
BELLSINTHEWOOD fails this as well

ROYAL COUNTY DOWN is safer
Looks a good each way double bet
One has already been attempted earlier

Selection

ROYAL COUNTY DOWN 9/4

If the each way double
Starting in the 3.35pm has failed
Then selecting him as a win bet

Galway 4.45

7/1 Syrena, 8/1 Angels, 7/1 Make A Challenge
8/1 War Hero, 10/1 Cyrus Dallin, 10/1 Galtee Mist
12/1 Nothing To Lose, 12/1 Sky Moon, 12/1 Whatharm
12/1 Dee Sprinter, Pretty Boy Floyd, 14/1 Stormy Air
16/1 Caesar's Comet, Merited, 20/1 Vocal Duke
25/1 Facethepuckout.

7f Handicap

Big field
But there is some dead wood
I always follow the same angles
And go with very recent returners

Horses absent over 16 days
Have a miserable 1-59 record in this race

2018 winner ran 4 days ago at Galway
2017 second ran 4 days ago at Galway
2016 second ran 3 days ago at Galway
2015 winner ran 3 days ago at Galway
2013 winner ran 3 days ago at Galway
2012 winner ran 4 days ago at Galway
2011 winner ran 6 days ago at Galway
2009 winner ran 4 days ago at Galway

The first port of call
Horses that ran well this week at Galway

You want a good recent run
SKY MOON didn't do enough last time

Shortlisting 4 horses
With decent recent runs

WAR HERO 9/1
SYRENA 7/1
GALTEE MIST 8/1
MAKE A CHALLENGE 8/1

SYRENA is better as a 3yo filly
But she has had 20 career runs
Worryingly exposed for a filly

If you look at 7f Galway races
Horses aged 2-3-4
More than 7 career starts
Drawn in stall 9 or more
Have a thought provoking 0-102 record
SYRENA fails this drawn 13

GALTEE MIST drawn 12 fails this

WAR HERO is a 4yo
Should have every chance
Having had the worst draw 4 days ago

MAKE A CHALLENGE has stall 1
Presuming he can avoid trouble
He should go close to following up
In a race that rewards similar types

Selection

£4.50 Each Way MAKE A CHALLENGE 5/1

£1.00 Win Bet WAR HERO 8/1

1/4 Odds 1-2-3-4

Goodwood 4.50

11/4 Marhaba Milliar, 9/2 Land Of Legends
5/1 Warning Fire, 7/1 Hero Hero, 10/1 Bayroot
12/1 Blown By Wind, Fox Leicester, 14/1 Breath Of Air
16/1 Artistic Rifles, 20/1 Jack's Point, Pogo
25/1 Adelante, Fintas.

3yo Handicap (7f)

3 Important factors

Experience
Fitness
Conditioning

Experience

Past winners
Had the following runs
13 9 11 10 13 10 5 9 6 11 7
They all had at least 5 career runs

Horses with under 6 runs
Have a 1-36 record in this race

Horses with under 5 runs
Have a 0-16 record in this race

These horses
Look on the experienced side

BAYROOT - 4 runs
MARHABA MILLIAR - 4 runs
LAND OF LEGENDS - 4 runs

Fitness

12 renewals since 2007
11 Winners within 21 days
Horses absent longer are 1-78

POGO has 44 days off
HERO HERO also absent 44 days
LAND OF LEGENDS 37 days off
MARHABA MILLIAR 36 days off
FINTAS has 28 days absence
FOX LEICESTER has 36 days off

Past winners
Had 13 5 7 4 4 6 5 4 2 5 3 runs that year
MARHABA MILLIAR only has 1 race

Conditioning

All past winners came from 7f -8f
Horses coming from 6f races
Have a 0-48 record in recent years
BLOWN BY WIND has this problem
JACKS POINT also fails this from 6f

ADELANTE is a filly absent 29 days
Not really a perfect match to a winner

BREATH OF AIR is too risky
He has only had 6 career runs
Most past winners had more
He has raced once in 80 days
Badly weakens his profile
Win lose or draw he is opposed

ARTISTIC RIFLES - No major profile worry

WARNING FIRE

Fittest horse
She has 5 runs since July
No other horse in the race
Has more than 1 run in that time

That could easily be why She wins
It could also be why She may lose
Has She had too much recent racing
Does She need a break

This has been done before
The 2018 winner had 4 runs during July
The 2015 winner had 4 runs during July

Selection

£9 Win Bet WARNING FIRE 7/2

£1 Win Bet BAYROOT 7/1

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Best Wishes

Guy Ward

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