Mathematician 3148
Saturday February 16th
12 Races Discussed
0 Account Bet
1 Highlighted Bet
Highlighted Account
Gowran Park 1.20
STAR MAX 11/4
Win Bet
Betting The Message
A strange and disruptive week
It started with racing cancelled
Few knew how long it might last
But we arrive here on Saturday
Races borrowed from last week
Merged with today's schedule
12 Races Discussed
More than I planned to do
Plenty of smaller fields around
Won't be as good as last weeks
Given the much wider schedule
These are the races I liked best
Gowran Park 1.20
STAR MAX 11/4
Win Bet
Lingfield 1.30
BIG BAD LOL 7/2
Each Way
Haydock 4.45
ROAD TO ROME 13/8
Win Bet
None of these races
Offer us particularly big prices
Thats where the message fails
It certainly covers a lot of ground
But more quantity than quality
When it comes to the main bets
STAR MAX tempted me each way
But 11/4 in a big field is quite short
If he jumps better than last time
He should be good enough to win
BIG BAD LOL maybe the safest bet
Lingfields luck factor and weak market
Concerns we are unable to manage
ROAD TO ROME is as hunter chaser
Win bet at short price hardly inspiring
One option
Take all 3 horses
Have them in each way doubles
Wouldn't be the most popular option
But if it suits your betting style why not
In the end
Decided to go with a win bet
Not on the Main account
Couldn't get the staking I wanted
Just one of those indecisive days
Top of the message hasn't worked
Sunday message tomorrow
Will cover some Cheltenham stuff
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Ascot 12.30
13/8 Deise Aba, 7/4 I Can't Explain,
9/2 Russian Hawk, 5/1 Dashel Drasher,
20/1 Imperial Knight, 100/1 Du Chatelier.
2m 3f Novices' Hurdle
DEISE ABA only has 1 career start
The 2011 winner (Sonofvic ) has won
With a similar profile to him
But the winners since then
Had 6 14 16 3 10 3 4 career races
I'd prefer a more experienced horse
This is a small stakes race
But I'd play it this way
Selection
£7 Win Bet RUSSIAN HAWK 100/30 - 7/2
£3 Win Bet I CAN'T EXPLAIN 2/1-9/4
Haydock 12.50
5/6 Quel Destin, 6/5 Torpillo,
14/1 Capone, 33/1 Fanzio.
Victor Ludorum Juvenile Hurdle
This does look a match between 2
Triumph Hurdle candidates
No strong case against either
Neither have done anything wrong
OUEL DESTIN has more experience
TORPILLO has had 2 easy victories
The last of which was a soft race
OUEL DESTIN is marginally preferred
Might just be sharper and more streetwise
Would rather rely on him of the pair
Selection
OUEL DESTIN 10/11
Win Bet
Ascot 1.00
4/1 Umndeni, 6/1 Air Horse One, 7/1 Ballyandy,
6/1 Tight Call, 13/2 Cloudy Glen, 8/1 Darling Maltaix,
8/1 Sussex Ranger, 10/1 Brio Conti, 12/1 Malaya,
14/1 Master Blueyes, 25/1 Honest Vic.
Every winner since 2012
Were aged either 6 or 7 years old
Uncomfortable with the 5 year olds
Especially those without Graded form
UMNDENI falls into this category
He only comes from a Maiden hurdle
With just 3 proper hurdle runs he is unsafe
Other 5 year olds are unconvincing
SUSSEX RANGER doesn't offer enough
Fitness doubts about some of these
MASTER BLUEYES is one of those
BRIO CONTI may not be fit enough
BALLYANDY should go well
AIR HORSE ONE like him also an 8yo
But horses aged 6-7 score better
The most interesting profiles
In what is small stakes race
TIGHT CALL
CLOUDY GLEN
Decided to stake it this way
Selection
£7.00 Win Bet TIGHT CALL 6/1
£1.50 Win Bet CLOUDY GLEN 6/1
£1.50 Win Bet BALLYANDY 6/1
Gowran Park 1.20
2/1 Future Proof, 100/30 Star Max, 5/1 Coolongolook,
6/1 Ingenuity, 12/1 Aim For Glory, Christopher Robin,
14/1 Flash De Clerval, Sirjack Thomas, 14/1 Colour Me In,
14/1 Morning Skye, 33/1 Capilano Bridge, Nathaniel's Dream,
33/1 Zoffalee, 40/1 Key Commander, 50/1 Lucia's Bob,
50/1 Rock On Seamie, 100/1 Cocoroco, Feyan, Kindred,
100/1Trumps Up.
2m Maiden Hurdle (4yo)
FUTURE PROOF has 3 hurdle runs
He sets the standard so far
Racing Post Hurdle ratings 109 117 116
Not bad but nothing special
Not entirely convincing on pedigree
His sire is Dream Ahead
Who was an American Bred Sprinter
His mother was a sprinter
Who was sired by Acclamation a sprinter
The Sire Dream Ahead
Has a 1-39 record with his hurdlers
Thats not a good strike rate
The highest Racing Post Rating
That all of these 39 runs produced
Was the 117 rating Future Proof did
I would rather turn him down
And look for an alternative selection
COOLONGOLOOK is a hurdling debutant
Respected but rather have experience
His sires unraced hurdlers are 1-69
INGENUITY has a chance
STAR MAX is a positive
Both have very similar profiles
Selection
STAR MAX 11/4
Win Bet
Lingfield 1.30
9/4 First Link, 4/1 Big Bad Lol, 13/2 Soaring Spirits,
7/1 Herm, 8/1 Jai Hanuman, 10/1 Kafeel, Limerick Lord,
14/1 Claudine, 16/1 Ubla, 33/1 Haraz.
8f Handicap
FIRST LINK won well last time
The Market likes her
The Racing Post Like her
Watching her last run so did I
But it was a frantic pace that day
She came from last to first to win
Other winners did that on the day
May well have been a false pace
Her Profile is not entirely safe
Fillies aged 4 coming up in trip
Having under 9 career starts
Have a 1-30 record in similar races
That winner did not win last time out
FIRST LINK is best seen as neutral
BIG BAD LOL is running consistently
He has placed in his last 8 runs
His last 2 runs were career best numbers
He looks a very solid each way horse
SOARING SPIRITS is a 9yo
Those like him up in trip are 0-48
He also has 48 days off the track
JAN HANUMAN is short of runs
He has had just 1 run in 173 days now
CLAUDINE has raced once in 130 days
Not to mention downgrading stables
KAFEEL is not running that well
HARAZ is running low numbers
LIMERICK LORD is very beatable
HERM may be better over 7 furlongs
FIRST LINK is very shortlistable
BIG BAD LOL looks more than solid
Option 1
£6.50 Win BIG BAD LOL 7/2
£3.50 Win FIRST LINK 2/1
Option 2
BIG BAD LOL 7/2
Each Way
Haydock 1.55
11/10 Yanworth, 3/1 Clyne, 13/2 Kilcooley,
8/1 Shades Of Midnight, 12/1 Donna's Diamond,
12/1 Petticoat Tails, 33/1 Man Of Plenty.
Rendlesham Hurdle
Grade 2 race over 3 miles
YANWORTH is a short price
No certainty to get home over 3m
Given he is 9 and absent 338 days
January to October
Listed and Graded Hurdles
Any distance
Horses aged 8 or more
Absent more than 90 days
Have a 0-53 record in these months
YAMWORTH shares this 0-53 profile
KILCOOLEY has the same problem
He is a 10yo absent 1066 days
Aside from a French winner years ago
All winners of this ran within 63 days
DONNA'S DIAMOND is not safe
As a 10yo who has been chasing
Playing it this way
£7.00 Win Bet SHADES OF MIDNIGHT 8/1
£2.00 Win Bet CLYNE 4/1
£1.00 Win Bet PETTICOAT TAILS 12/1
Lingfield 2.05
5/2 Derry Boy, 7/2 Reggae Runner,
4/1 I'm Available, 6/1 Chop Chop, 6/1 Dobrianka,
7/1 Red Fedora, 20/1 Perfect Grace, 40/1 Sir Canford,
40/1 Watch And Learn.
8f Novice
DERRY BOY sets the standard
Because he has the most races
But not that much of a standard
He comes from a low scoring stable
Far better trainers in this race
Seems quite difficult to imagine
Something wont improve past him
Very few similar races in February
What they do show is that horses
Beaten over 3 lengths last time
Returned a 0-24 record in them
PERFECT GRACE fails this angle
RED FEDORA shares this profile
She has not proven his stamina yet
DOBRIANKA needs improvement
CHOP CHOP could pop up
But marginally prefer 2 horses
I'M AVAILABLE is well backed
She could be a useful saver bet
REGGAE RUNNER is shortlistable
Colts beaten under 3 lengths last time
Have a 4-7 record in these races
REGGAE RUNNER shares this profile
Selection
REGGAE RUNNER 5/1
Each Way
Lingfield 2.40
3/1 Desert Doctor, 7/2 Raucous, 5/1 Gulliver,
11/2 Alsvinder, 6/1 Merhoob, 10/1 Giogiobbo,
12/1 Ultimate Avenue, 20/1 Atletico
6f Handicap in class 2
13 of these in February
Ignoring 2 horses on fitness grounds
RAUCOUS faces 213 days absence
GIOGIOBBO has 1 run in just 109 days
Horses from 5f races struggled
ATLETICO is rejected aged 7 doing this
MERHOOB is rejected aged 7 as welll
This leaves 4 horses
Runs in the last 70 days
4 Alsvinder
3 Gulliver
3 Desert Doctor
1 Ultimate Avenue
ULTIMATE AVENUE is opposed
Faces horses with far more recent runs
Safest profiles
Belong to these 3 horses
Shortlist
ALSVINDER
GULLIVER
DESERT DOCTOR
This is where we run out of road
And have to guess to seperate these
No strong view which of these are best
Selection
GULLIVER 5/1
Each Way
Ascot 3.20
5/2 Al Dancer, 11/4 Getaway Trump,
7/1 Didtheyleaveuoutto, 8/1 Lisp, 10/1 Mont Des Avaloirs,
14/1 Zanza, 16/1 Ar Mest, 20/1 Equus Amadeus,
20/1 Nordic Combined, William H Bonney, 25/1 Distingo,
25/1 Magic Dancer, 33/1 Nelson's Touch, 50/1 Blu Cavalier.
Betfair Hurdle
We did this race Ante Post
Supposed to be run at Newbury
Different track
Different ground
Don't feel I can trust my angles
The best angles were these
Horses aged 7 or more
Have a 0-100 record since 2005
Horses with over 10 hurdle runs
Have a 0-63 record since 2007
Horses from a Handicap Hurdle
Have a very weak 3-160 record
Every past renewal since 2011
Horses from a handicap hurdle
Had a miserable 0-105 record
When we looked at this race
GETAWAY TRUMP came out best
DIDTHEYLEAVEEUOUTTO has a chance
Lightly raced and ticks several boxes
Comes from an ordinary novice
Last horse to do that was 2013
Horses from Non graded Novices are 1-26
Those beaten in those were 0-12
Thats the biggest angle he fails
LISP has been quite popular
But if you look at 5 year olds in this race
Who have over 5 hurdle starts
You find a weak 2-60 record
Those absent over 17 days are 0-53
Those with 10st 10bs or more are 0-27
LISP fails both of those statistics
That may all change
Now this is run at a different track
But on his profile he is not safe
AL DANCER has every chance
Comes from a handicap Hurdle
His one flaw in an otherwise good profile
All 105 since 2011 were beaten doing this
GETAWAY TRUMP
6 Career starts
4 Hurdle runs
3 runs this year
The 2013 winner was similar
Has to drop down from 2m 4f
But the 2014 and 2017 winners did
The 2017 winner came from the same race
GETAWAY TRUMP is the best match here
Staking
This is an interesting strategy
£5 Win Bet GETAWAY TRUMP 3/1
£5 Place Bet AL DANCER 4/5
There are some bookmakers
Offering 1-2-3-4-5 places
William Hill offer 6 places
Thats pretty generous when you consider
There are only 14 horses in the race
And half a dozen are 33/1 and more
GETAWAY TRUMP 3/1 each way
Will not appeal to everybody
But with 5 places and 6 with Hills
The place terms do feel generous
Thats how I would play the race
If you prefer to avoid each way 3/1
Then the £5 Win £5 Place bet is there
Selection
GETAWAY TRUMP 3/1
Each Way
Haydock 3.35
6/1 Ramses De Teillee, 8/1 Robinsfirth, 8/1 Wakanda,
9/1 Yala Enki, 9/1 Impulsive Star, 10/1 Royal Vacation,
11/1 The Two Amigos, 12/1 Red Infantry, 14/1 Ballyoptic,
14/1 Vieux Lion Rouge, 16/1 Ballyarthur, Carole's Destrier,
16/1 Chef D'Oeuvre, Pobbles Bay, 20/1 Ah Littleluck,
25/1 Bishops Road.
Number of Chase runs
28 Bishops Road
26 Wakanda
22 Yala Enki
21 Carole's Destrier
16 Vieux Lion Rouge
14 Royal Vacation
11 Ballyarthur
11 Chef D'oeuvre
9 Ramses De Teillee
9 Red Infantry
8 Ballyoptic
7 Robinsfirth
7 Pobbles Bay
6 Impulsive Star
6 Ah Littleluck
4 The Two Amigos
Long history to this race
Past winner had these Chase runs
17 8 11 11 14 5 11 13 11 14 5 5 11 7 6 9 3
Before last years race
Every winner had under 15 Chase runs
Those with more were 0-72
The 2018 winner Yala Enki
Did have 17 chase runs and failed that
But 9 of these were years ago in France
Hindsight tells us we can forgive him that
The more chase runs you have
The less likely you are to win this
BISHOPS ROAD is the most exposed
Not keen on him aged 11 failing this stat
January Febuary March
Handicap Chases over 3m 4f +
Class 2 or higher
Since 2010
Horses aged 11 or more
Absent more than 35 days
Had a 0-97 record
BISHOPS ROAD fails this angle
CAROLE'S DESTRIER almost fails it
He is 11 and absent exactly 35 days
You can argue he is quite well treated
But 21 Chase starts is more than ideal
WAKANDA has 26 Chase starts
Too exposed and fails this breeding stat
Horses sired by Westerner
Running in Class 2 or higher
Have a 0-55 record over 3m 2f and more
YALA ENKI won this race last year
But he is a lot more exposed now
He has fewer warm up runs this year
He also has a handicap mark of 156
Look at official ratings of past winners
No horses have won this rated 150 +
YALA ENKI is rejected failing this
BALLYOPTIC has to defy a rating of 155
Thats 6lbs more than all past winners
He has only raced twice this season
And he fell half way round in one of those
Just worried he is a bit short of runs
Given his weight and official rating
ROYAL VACATION is rated 152
None have won this raced 150 or more
He did win over 3m 4f last time out
But not in a handicap or a big field
The damsire is a major concern
A 27yo sprinter called Foxhound
With a stamina index of just 7.1f
Probably needs a lifetime best to win
RAMSES DE TEILLEE is a 7yo
THE TWO AMIGOS is a 7yo
Horses aged 7
Won this race in 1998 2004 2007
Since 2008 horses aged 7 are 0-17
Don't think this is the best age group
The winners aged 7
Were all lightly raced chasers
They all had 10st 6lbs or lower
Those with more weight were 0-20
RAMSES DE TEILLEE fails this
He has 11st 5lbs far more than any 7yo
He also has 51 days off the track
That said he comes from the Welsh National
We had 4 past winners of this doing that
THE TWO AMIGOS has 10st 12lbs
Thats 6lbs more than all 7yo winners
THE TWO AMIGOS only has 4 chase runs
Past winner had these Chase runs
17 8 11 11 14 5 11 13 11 14 5 5 11 7 6 9 3
The last winner with under 5 chases
Was back in 2001 (The Frantic Tan)
That horse was 2 years older
He also had less weight as well
THE TWO AMIGOS has 11 career runs
Not many in the context of this race
Every past winner since 2006
Had at least 13 career races beforehand
He is progressive and on a hat trick
His numbers say he could win again
But just not safe enough in this race
BALLYARTHUR doesn't offer enough
Nothing seriously wrong with his profile
His best numbers are on soft/heavy
His best numbers and only victories
Have been in very small fields too
Plenty to prove going up in class
ROBINSFIRTH is a 10yo
He has raced just once since 2017
That would have to be a concern
So may coming back just 4 weeks later
May not stop him winning if good enough
But increases the chance he runs badly
AH LITTLELUCK is a 9yo
Not ideal he comes from a Beginners Chase
Nor that he has 1 run in 138 days now
His sire has no winners past 3m 3f
In Class or or higher grade
None have yet won beyond 3 miles
POBBLESS BAY has 1 run this season
He has 77 days off the track as well
That would worry be but the 2017 winner
Did win this with a similar profile that year
His last few races over fences though
He ran like he had lost his confidence
CHEF D'OUEVRE won last time
He is up in class and distance here
Has to prove he can stay this far
Not completely safe on his pedigree
His best numbers are on heavy ground
Not sure if this will be wet enough
Shortlist
VIEUX LION ROUGE is not safe
But he comes from a good trial race
IMPULSIVE STAR won last time
As a 9yo with just 6 Chase starts
He is not unlike the 2013 winner
Not sure he is as safe as that
Not a good record in this race
From Warwick Classic Chase horses
But the 2004 winner managed this
RED INFANTRY is a 9yo
Nothing wrong with his profile
But will need a career best to win
Would rather stake 2 each way
Knowing only 1 needs to be placed
When most firms offer 5 places
Selection
£2.50 Each Way IMPULSIVE STAR 9/1
£2.50 Each Way VIEUX LION ROUGE 10/1
Lingfield 4.25
4/1 Miss Green Dream, 5/1 Vin D'Honneur,
6/1 Warrior Display, 7/1 Comeonfeeltheforce, 7/1 Hammy End
9/1 Ede's, 10/1 Bonneville, 12/1 Brinkleys Katie, George Hastings,
14/1 Moon Artist, 20/1 Ginge N Tonic.
3yo Handicap over 12f
Always going to be hidden evidence
How munch improvement some have
MISS GREEN DREAM is a filly
She has to step up from an 8f race
What would bother me just as much
She has downgraded stables for £6k
Statistically the best profile
Horses with 4-5-6-7-8 runs
Running within 6 weeks
At least 2 runs in the last 12 weeks
Stamina wilk be important
WARRIOR DISPLAY has this to prove
His sire has bred just 1 winner over 12f
Very low scoring stable also puts me off
COMEONFEELTHEFORCE is by Slade Power
Hard to predict if she will get home
Her sire has not had a winner over 10f + yet
He has just been sold for just £1200
GEORGE HASTINGS is not safe enough
HAMMY END only has 3 career runs
Combined with the highest draw
VIN D'HONNEUR ran well last time
BONNEVILLE also makes the shortlist
Selection
£4.25 Each Way VIN D'HONNEUR 11/2
£1.50 Win Bet BONNEVILLE 7/1
Haydock 4.45
2/1 Road To Rome, 9/4 Pacha Du Polder,
7/2 Ballotin, 6/1 Dineur, 10/1 Ardea,
25/1 Tulsa Jack, 33/1 Sybarite,
66/1 Roevin Star.
Hunter Chase
PACHA DU POLDER is a positive
Despite being 12 and having an absence
He won the 2018 Cheltenham Foxhunters
ROAD TO ROME just looks more appealing
He won only 10 days ago
Decent Numbers in that victory
226 Hunter Chases in February
Horses winning last time
Running within 2 weeks
Have a smart 13-22 record
ROAD TO ROME shares this profile
With 3 runs and 3 wins in 2019
May just be the sharper horse
He has by far the best jockey too
Selection
ROAD TO ROME 13/8
Win Bet
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Best Wishes
Guy Ward
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