Mathematician 2111
Saturday January 24th
0 Account Bet
1 Selection
5 Profiles/Preview bets
9 Races Discussed
Todays Selection
Cheltenham 2.25
ANNACOTTY 6/1
Each Way
There are now 47 days and counting until the
2015 Cheltenham Festival and the card today
is described as Festival Trials Day. The clues
there in the title. They are trials and need care
but it is the best card on offer and most work
has been done at Cheltenham. Lingfield gets
a little coverage in a message but it's mainly
a message covering just these two meetings.
Form Wise I've been reading things very well
and we have had some very good messages
lately but recent Saturdays have been quiet
and we are due a decent priced winner on a
Saturday. These come around but it must be
time soon and the obvious frustration is the
impressive midweek form is forgotten when
the Saturday message does not fire too well.
Today I wanted to concentrate on going for
a decent priced winner and not overload the
number of bets in the other supporting races.
Profiles and Previews Selections
Cheltenham 2.40 - £7 Win Karezak 8/1
Cheltenham 2.40 - £3 Place Karezak 2/1
Cheltenham 1.15 - Generous Ransom 7/1 Each Way
Cheltenham 1.15 - Astigos 8/1 Saver
Lingfield 1.25 - Saskia's Dream 7/1 Each Way
Cheltenham 2.25 - Annacotty 6/1 Each Way
Cheltenham 3.00 - Robinsfirth 8/1 Each Way
Cheltenham 3.00 - Vago Collonges 7/1 Saver
I never considered Karezak for a bet with 7 runners
I never considered Saskia's Dream either
Not given how competitive the race is
The 3 other races are the most interesting
Generous Ransom was an option but this is
the hardest race of the three and staking was
difficult and I have too many with chances.
ANNACOTTY is one of my best options
I think it's the most interesting preview
I fancy him to make all the running
Not convinced he should be an each way bet
One of those that could hack up or disappoint
That said there are doubtful stayers against him
ROBINSFIRTH/ VAGO COLLONGES also appealed
That was my other option for a bet
P r o f i l e s a n d P r e v i e w s
Doncaster - Navan - Uttoxeter
Decided to stay away from these meetings today.
The time left once CHELTENHAM and LINGFIELD
is limited and I don't see a race I want to preview.
C h e l t e n h a m 12.40
4/7 Peace And Co, 6/1 Karezak, 7/1 Bivouac
8/1 Ibis Du Rheu, 12/1 Zarib, 33/1 Storm Force Ten.
* This is a Graded hurdle for 4 year olds
Not easy to turn down PEACE AND CO who looks
very sexy and talented. Racing Post Ratings clearly
prove he should be favourite. He will probably win.
There are a couple of niggles. You can argue there
could be a stamina doubt. He is by a French miler
and I don't think you can assume stamina. Another
thing that interests me is total career starts. By this
I mean every career start on both flat and hurdles.
* Past winners had the following career starts
* 4 21 14 14 10 10 5 11 8 5
* That shows none have won with under 4 runs
* Thats because most past winners ran on the flat
* Last years did not but he was an exception
* PEACE AND CO only has 2 career runs
* IBIS DU RHEU only has 2 career starts as well
* ZARIB has 9 runs which is fine
* Once raced hurdlers though have struggled in this
* BIVOUAC has 4 but looks the stable 2nd string
* KAREZAK with 11 runs could be the best conditioned
* He may not have the class of a couple
* He will stay though and has lots of experience
* At the prices he has to be the best value
Selection
KAREZAK 7/1 Part Win Part Place (Only 2 places)
Staked to £10
£7 Win KAREZAK 7/1 +
£3 Place KAREZAK 2/1
L i n g f i e l d 12.50
2/1 Draco´s Code, 5/2 Belrog, 3/1 Pirate Cove
7/1 Astral Weeks, 200/1 My Sonny Boy.
This is a 12f maiden. My statistics tell me to oppose
the favourite DRACO´S CODE but give me no help
at all with which horse I should oppose him with.
Draco's Code comes from a bumper
I looked at every January maiden under 2m
Horses from Bumpers
No Pattern race form
More than 1 career start
All 37 of these horses were beaten
I should be opposing Draco's Code
Any selection would require a guess
It depends on which improve any by how much
I think you can fancy all of these except two
The favourite and the no hoper outsider
My statistical view ends at opposing Draco's Code
Progressing further is a guessing game
No Selection
C h e l t e n h a m 1.15
4/1 Stellar Notion, 13/2 Garrahalish
7/1 Horatio Hornblower, 8/1 Black River
8/1 Generous Ransom, 10/1 Astigos, 10/1 Mosspark
12/1 Carole´s Destrier, 12/1 Irish Cavalier
16/1 Perfect Candidate, 25/1 Benevolent,
25/1 Keel Haul.
* This is a Novice Handicap Chase over 2m 5f
* There are 17 past renewals of this race
* Recent winners had 2 17 2 8 3 5 6 5 6 6 Chase starts
* You want a lightly raced Chaser in this race
* No past winner came from a 2m race
* KEEL HAUL has this against him
* STELLAR NOTION won a Nov Handicap Chase last time
* 5 horses had this profile finishing 2 5 5 7 PU
* Bothers me he has just won Class 4 + Class 3 races
* He is now in a Class 2 race and up in the weights
* This is not the place to land a hat trick
* PERFECT CANDIDATE won a Novice Handicap last time
* No past winner of this race did that
* Up in Class and up 11lbs he is not for me
* BENEVOLENT has the same problem
* You don't want a poor last run
* Almost all past winners were 1st 2nd or Fell last time
* This is the last finishing position of the recent winners
* 2 2 2 F 2 2 W W W W 4
* Several recent winners finished 2nd last time out
* MOSSPARK does not match that profile
* Horses from a Graded Novice Chase are 0-11
* No horse has won this from a Graded Novice Chase
* Only 1 of the 11 that tried managed to place as well
* GARRAHALISH won a Novice Handicap last time
* No winner came from Novice Handicaps under 2m 3f
* Not many tried but none managed it
* GARRAHALISH has to go up half a mile in distance
* Only 2 winners came from 2m 2f or shorter
* None were aged 6 or 7 as he is
* None came from Handicaps as he does
* CAROLE´S DESTRIER pulled up last time
* Not like any of the recent winners
* He also comes from a Non Novice Handicap
* Horses doing that are just 1-29 in past renewals
* IRISH CAVALIER is a 6 year old
* He comes from a Novice Handicap Chase
* Horses aged 6 doing that were 0-8
* That means he is not like a winner
* I have to question whether he will stay
* IRISH CAVALIER is sired by a miler Aussie Rules
* His offspring are 0-23 running over 2m 3f and more
* The Sires never had a National Hunt winner in this class
* He's never bred one at Cheltenham either
* BLACK RIVER is a 6yo from a Handicap Chase
* Not a good sign coming from a Non Novice handicap
* BLACK RIVER is not a match to any winners
* His sire hasn't had a winner over this far either
Possibles
* HORATIO HORNBLOWER won last time out
* That was a Novice Chase and his profile is fine
* ASTIGOS was only 3rd last time out
* I'd keep him on side at a big price
* He is lightly weighted from a significant stable
* Venetia Williams record in this race is as follows
* 2 3 PU W 2 W 2 4 F F W 6 3
* GENEROUS RANSOM was 3rd last time
* I'd have preferred 2nd but he wasn't beaten far
* I fancied him each way at Kempton last time
* Thats a good trial race for this
Selection
GENEROUS RANSOM 7/1 Each Way
ASTIGOS 8/1 Saver
L i n g f i e l d 1.25
7/2 Gabrial´s Wawa, 5/1 Caminel, 8/1 Humour
8/1 Saskia´s Dream, 8/1 Indus Valley, 8/1 Lujeanie
8/1 Profile Star 12/1 Black Vale, 12/1 Chevise
14/1 Burnt Cream 20/1 Archibald Thorburn.
* This is a 6f handicap for 0-65 rated horses
* January has 169 similar races
* The Draw could be a big factor here
* Look at handicaps here with 10 + runners
* 10 of the 11 last races went to horses drawn 1-2-3-4-5
Racing Post Ratings
6f Lingfield only
Within 12 months
78 Lujeanie
74 Lujeanie
72 Lujeanie - Black Vale - Black Vale
70 Lujeanie
68 Saskia's Dream - Caminel - Chevise
67 Chevise - Gabrial's Wawa - Lujeanie
66 Black Vale- Chevise - Lujeanie - Lujeanie
65 Caminel - Indus Valley
64 Lujeanie
63 Lujeanie
62 Chevise - Profile Star
61 Saskia's Dream - Saskia's Dream - Lujeanie
61 Chevise
59 Saskia's Dream
* HUMOUR is 4 and comes from 7f
* Horses aged 4 doing this with under 11 runs are 0-29
* HUMOUR with 8 runs fails this statistic
* BURNT CREAM - Bad draw and quite old going up in trip
* GABRIAL´S WAWA - Rejected with 1 run since April
* I appreciate he ran with a lot of promise
* He is woefully short of recent runs though
* Not as if he is a lightly raced 4 year old
* Given he is 5 and has 18 runs I wanted more runs
* CHEVISE - I want a more recent run for a 7yo mare
* INDUS VALLEY - Needed a run within 2 weeks
* The record of similar older horses down in trip suggest it
* PROFILE STAR has serious backclass
* That was some time ago now though
* Needed his last run. No statistical objections
* Chances are he is not ready to win but watch market
* ARCHIBALD THORBURN - Average profile at best
Shortlist
* LUJEANIE - No reason why he can't win
* Dominant on the figures but those numbers a year ago
* As he is 9 now the doubt is him reproducing that
* On current form and from his draw he probably wont
* His current numbers could still be good enough to win
* CAMINEL has an acceptable profile
* Unreliable stable but she has a decent chance
* BLACK VALE is an exposed 4yo male
* Coming from a 6f handicap
* I found 4 winners with similar profiles
* Narrowing it down further
* Look at those running 13-14-15 days ago
* Similar horses had a 2-7 record
* BLACK VALE has the best profile
* Sadly he has one of the worst draws
* SASKIA´S DREAM - Neutral profile with good draw
* Good excuse with poor draws on last two runs
* Like her a lot on paper but unreliable stable
I think you could go with any of these four.
Complicated issue with the Draw and there
are some unreliable stables to worry about.
I think you have to guess about things like
whether BLACK VALE will overcome a bad
draw. He would certainly have been staked
somewhere in the bet had he been drawn
low. I could have savers but not sure which.
SASKIA´S DREAM 7/1
Each Way
C h e l t e n h a m 1.50
2/1 Dynaste, 11/4 Many Clouds
3/1 Smad Place, 6/1 The Giant Bolster
8/1 Black Thunder, 25/1 Theatre Guide.
* The BetBright Cup used to be the Argento Chase
* Just 6 runners this year all have chances and flaws
* DYNASTE has to prove he can stay an extended 25f here
* His record suggests he does not stay in this Class
* The problem is a small field and a possible slow pace
* He could end up winning without fully staying
* Past winners had 2 2 3 3 4 4 1 4 2 4 runs that season
* The horse with 1 run that year that won was lucky
* He beat a Non staying favourite and a 2nd favourite fell
* THEATRE GUIDE only has 1 run this season
* He has the longest absence as well
* He comes out as the worst horse at the weights too
* SMAD PLACE only has 1 run this year as well
* I'm in no hurry to bet a horse with just 1 run
* SMAD PLACE has only had 5 Chase runs as well
* Past winners had the following Chase runs before
* 14 20 11 14 14 8 26 8 12 15 18 9 8 7 16
* SMAD PLACE has 3 fewer than all past 15 winners
* That and just 1 run this year put me off him
* MANY CLOUDS has had 8 Chase runs
* He'd be the joint least experienced winner if he won
* His Sire has never had a Grade 1-2 winner yet
* Asking him a lot to peak again after winning a Hennessy
* Considered him as a saver but declined
* Not a big enough price given his track form
* THE GIANT BOLSTER won this race last year
* He had a much more recent race last year
* He also had 10lbs less weight as well
* I think you have to include him at this track
* BLACK THUNDER has 8 Chase starts
* He'd be the joint least experienced winner if he won
* He is not very well in at the weights either
* He is improving and if he stays he has a chance
No real confidence here but If I had to chose two
then I'd probably look for two that are overpriced.
Shortlist
BLACK THUNDER 7/1
THE GIANT BOLSTER 13/2
No selection
C h e l t e n h a m 2.25
3/1 Easter Day, 5/1 Little Jon, 5/1 Sew On Target
7/1 Annacotty, 8/1 Easter Meteor, 10/1 Dare Me
10/1 Quincy Des Pictons, 10/1 Walkon
16/1 Big Fella Thanks, 16/1 Tap Night.
* This is a Graded Handicap Chase over 2m 5f.
* Cheltenham have 21 Graded races like it in January
* BIG FELLA THANKS is 13 far too old for me
* None won aged 12 + and he has just 1 run this year
* There were 3 winners aged 11 or more
* None were absent as long as DARE ME
* The only seasonal debutant winners were aged 9
* DARE ME is too old for me aged 11 off his rating
* QUINCY DES PICTONS is 11 and has topweight
* Last years winner did have that profile
* He was a far more proven horse in Graded Class
* QUINCY DES PICTONS is not in the same class
* I see him as exposed and badly handicapped
* EASTER METEOR has ran 2 poor runs this season
* Difficult to judge here now with David Pipe
* Hard to know if he can solve his problems
* And if he can whether he wants too before Cheltenham
* I wont make him a negative
* The 2007 winner (Too Forward) won with a similar profile
* I don't want to select him though
* This smacks of a prep race to me
* The horse is too unreliable as well
* EASTER DAY is a 7 year old
* It bothers me he has just 1 run this season
* There were 4 winners aged 7 in similar races
* They all had at least 3 runs that season
* Those with 1-2 runs that year were 0-24
* The 4 winners aged 7 had 6 11 13 15 Chase runs
* EASTER DAY only has 4 previous Chase runs
* I didn't want to risk him based on the above
* He also has no track form either
* That has to be a worry as he is not a big horse
* His trainer wanted to run him at Doncaster
* How owner insisted he runs at Cheltenham
* Going against trainer wishes is often a mistake
* SEW ON TARGET was in this race 4th last year
* He was beaten 19 lengths that day
* I opposed him as he had a never won from his rating
* And because he had a 0-11 record in Class 3 or higher
* He was rated 130 last year and now rated 142
* Off a 12lbs higher mark he is far worse off now
* He had 10st last year and now has 11st 6lbs
* On these angles it is hard to fancy him
* This is a weaker race though this year
* That said SEW ON TARGET is exposed
* He has little improvement and comes from a 2m race
* I'm not convinced SEW ON TARGET stays
* Look at this record from horses sired by Needle Gun
* Running over 2m 5f +
* Running on Soft or heavy Ground
* Running in Class 6 or higher
* There was a 3-99 record
* Throw out the Hunter Chases
* That becomes a 0-75 record
* SEW ON TARGET is also 0-8 over 2m 4f or more
* I don't think he will get the trip
* WALKON is a 10 year old
* It worries me he has just 1 run this season
* Especially after a serious injury
* No horse his aged won with just 1 run that season
* Most have 3 runs and he may not be fit enough
* I have never thought he stayed 2m 5f here anyway
* At least not as well as he needs to do
* If things drop right he has a chance off 143
* He hasn't won since 2011 though
* He is frustrating and I don't see enough positives
* TAP NIGHT is out of form and may not stay
* He was third in this race last year
* On paper he has less to do so I give him a chance
* Not sure he stays well enough to win
* He has won over 2m 5f at Ayr in a Novice Chase
* Thats the only horse by his sire winning at 2m 4f +
* The other 32 were all beaten
* Thats my biggest worry about him
* LITTLE JON hasn't finished his last 2 Chase runs
* Not an ideal preparation for this
* Neither is coming from a Graded Novice Chase either
* I think there is a stamina doubt there
* Horses by Pasternak over 2m 5f +
* Those running on soft or worse are just 1-47
* LITTLE JON has some questions to answer
Selection
* ANNACOTTY ran on this card last year
* He ran in the Novice Handicap Chase on this day last year
* The 2011 winner of this did the same thing
* Statistically his problem is pulling up last time
* Horses doing this are 0-25 in all similar races
* You can excuse it as it was in the Hennessy
* Just about the best handicap of the season
* It means I can't match him to a winner though
* He tried to make all this day last year
* He may well try that again
* He has been hunting at home which may switch him on
* I see him as a big positive against some of these
* Not least given fitness/stamina doubts of others
ANNACOTTY 6/1
Each Way
C h e l t e n h a m 3.00
6/4 Value At Risk, 5/1 Present View
11/2 Vago Collonges, 7/1 Robinsfirth, 8/1 Stilletto
12/1 Some Buckle, 16/1 Ordo Ab Chao
16/1 Thistlecrack, 20/1 Native River.
* This is a 2m 4f Graded Novice Hurdle
* January has had 23 similar races to this
* NATIVE RIVER looks unsafe after his last run
* ORDO AB CHAO - Not first choice well beaten last time
* There were 12 winners from Novice Hurdles
* Those that came from 2m 2f or shorter are 0-26
* THISTLECRACK fails this
* SOME BUCKLE also fails that 0-26 statistic
* PRESENT VIEW comes from a Chase
* None of the 23 races went to a horse doing that
* Not something I'd see as an advantage
* Look at how many hurdle runs past winners had
* 2 5 4 2 4 3 1 3 5 5
* Only 1 past winner won with just 1 hurdle run
* That was a 5yo and he was a Group horse on the flat
* I'd be worried with just 1 hurdle run
* VALUE AT RISK is 6 and has just 1 hurdle run
* STILLETTO is 6 and has just 1 hurdle run
* No past winners had similar profiles to either
Clearly VALUE AT RISK is the horse to beat but he
has this as a trial race and he has raced just once
since April and he concedes experience to my two
choices. He is also absent longer than both and has
fewer recent runs.
Shortlist
* VAGO COLLONGES is 6 and won last time out
* He won a race over 19f and has 3 hurdle runs
* Thats a solid profile and he is shortlisted
* ROBINSFIRTH was beaten last time in a Novice Hurdle
* It hurts his profile as we have several winning last time
* That said the 2012 winner was not too dissimilar
* That tells me he has a decent chance
* His stable are in good form as well
Cheltenham 3.00 - ROBINSFIRTH 8/1 Each Way
Cheltenham 3.00 - VAGO COLLONGES 7/1 Saver
C h e l t e n h a m 3.35
7/4 Saphir Du Rheu, 5/2 Un Temps Pour Tout
7/2 Cole Harden, 5/1 Reve De Sivola
20/1 The Druids Nephew, 25/1 Olofi.
Every time I review the Cleeve Hurdle I say the
same things. It's not a good trends race as this
has been run at different distances and courses
and even at different times of year. Throw in the
Paul Nicholls favourite who fell in a Chase last
time out and its no less of a mess this year too.
I am going on breeding stats here
Sires who have bred the following
Winners over 3 miles or more
On soft or Heavy ground
In Graded Class
There are just 3 Sires that have achieved that
and these three horses make my shortlist.
REVE DE SIVOLA
UN TEMPS POUR TOUT
THE DRUIDS NEPHEW
Trying to narrow this down I am not sold on
the outsider THE DRUIDS NEPHEW coming
from 12 consecutive Chase runs and rated
lower than every other horse. This leaves us
a shortlist of two horses purely based on sires.
REVE DE SIVOLA - UN TEMPS POUR TOUT
L i n g f i e l d 4.20
7/2 True Course, 9/2 Green Tornado
6/1 The Dapper Tapper, 7/1 Justice First
7/1 Kyllarney, 7/1 Laura B, 10/1 Gabrial The Tiger
10/1 Kodiac Lady, 12/1 Zebs Lad, 25/1 Alpha Spirit.
* This is a 3yo handicap over 6f
* There are 116 similar races in January
* Look at fillies from 5f handicaps
* Fillies doing this with over 5 runs were just 1-56
* TRUE COURSE fails this 1-56 statistic
* She's a filly from 5f with 8 career starts
* That sole winner had a 2 day absence
* TRUE COURSE has 43 days off the track
* She may go and win and defy this stat
* She is from a big stable in a low grade race
* I certainly wouldn't lay her
* On her profile though I should look elsewhere
* LAURA B is a filly absent over a month
* Fillies from handicaps doing this with 6 + runs are 1-26
* Those running over 6f or shorter like her were 0-21
* LAURA B is not quite like any winners
* ALPHA SPIRIT didn't do enough last time
* KYLLARNEY is a filly from a 7f maiden 126 days ago
* Fillies from maidens over 6 weeks ago are 1-29
* That winner had 9 runs and she has just 3
* That winner came from 6f and she doesn't
* Not a close enough profile to a winner
* JUSTICE FIRST wouldn't be first choice
* Not down 2f from an 8f handicap
* ZEBS LAD comes from a 5f handicap after 10 runs
* Horses doing this with 9 or more runs won 3 races
* All 3 winners ran within the previous 10 days
* Those that did not had a 0-16 record
* ZEBS LAD absent 4 weeks is not matchable to a winner
* THE DAPPER TAPPER is absent 44 days
* There were 9 Male horses winning absent 35 + days
* Those with 8 or more runs were 0-30
* THE DAPPER TAPPER has 10 runs
* He is a bit exposed for his absence
Shortlist
* GABRIAL THE TIGER is down from a 7f handicap
* Male horses with 4 runs have won down from 7f
* 2 winners did it but both were maidens though
* GABRIAL THE TIGER is not and won first time
* That may just handicap him out of it
* KODIAC LADY is a filly from a 6f handicap
* She has 4 career starts
* Horses with her profile were 1-9
* GREEN TORNADO has 3 runs from a 6f maiden
* Absent over 7 weeks there is 1 winner like him
* That winner (Jo Le Taxi) had 7lbs less weight
GREEN TORNADO has been gambled
Wouldn't interest me around 7/2 now
KOIDAC LADY 9/1 Seems reasonable value
GABRIAL THE TIGER 12/1 Seems reasonable value
No Selection
****************************************************
****************************************************
Best Wishes
Guy Ward
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk
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