Mathematician 2546
Wednesday February 15th

1 Account Bet
0 Negative
6 Previews

4 Meetings today
2 All Weather
2 National Hunt

I like Wolverhampton's best of all
You won't hear me say that very often
Get your buckets and spades out I suppose

4 of the 6 previews are there
Nothing at Kempton
Newcastle and Towcester 1 preview each
Didn't see many doors opening at either track

After a bout of insomnia last night
I decided to do a Newspaper Review as well

Today's Bet

Wolverhampton 2.00

£4 Each Way SCRAFTON 4/1

£2 Win Bet CHESTNUT STORM 6/1

4/1 Spbet VC PPower Betway
4/1 Ladbrokes Corals Boyles

T o d a y s M e s s a g e

I like my stuff at Wolves

Half the morning I was convinced
That SCRAFTON was a good thing
But he doesn't win very often
His sire doesn't offer much reassurance
So I have drafted in a saver
Makes it a bit tight but thats the decision

I am a bit surprised I have staked a bet
Just trying to break the cycle of only weekend bets

Wolverhampton 2.00

£4 Each Way SCRAFTON 4/1

£2 Win Bet CHESTNUT STORM 6/1

Going with an each way bet and saver
Tony Carroll is not my favourite trainer
He seems to like "Hands and Heels" races
There have been 277 Hands and Heels races
Guess who the best trainer is in these races
Tony Carroll has a 12-77 record in them
No other trainer has more than 8 winners
He won this in 2012 2014 2015 as well
My arguments are not based on trainer record
This trainer is usually one of my biggest concerns
But SCRAFTON stood out from the others
He looks the fittest horse
He is clear on my numbers as well
He just doesn't win very often

Daily Negatives
No Official Negatives
31 correct bets from 45

I N S O M N I A

I couldn't get a wink of sleep last night.
I was tossing and turning and unable to relax
One of the things I like to do on Wednesdays
Is have a look at the Racing Post Weekender
It is rarely worth the £3.10 price and overrated
But I have been buying it since 1988
It replaced Roy Of The Rovers and Shoot back then
Thought I would do a quick Paper review
Look at a few interesting bits from today's edition

Racing Post Weekender

Page 1
Taking Stock
GALLANT OSCAR 33/1 a hint in the Grand National
I wouldn't rule that out but not convinced
I would want another prep run given he is 11 years old
Negatives for two ante post races
SIZING JOHN in the Gold Cup
A GENIE IN A BOTTLE in the National Hunt Chase
I think there are stamina issues with both
SIZING JOHN won't pass my breeding stats
A GENIE IN A BOTTLE has been gambled recently
Partly because the best rider Jamie Codd is booked
But this horse is sired by Beneficial
That raises huge stamina problems for me

Page 2
Alistair Whitehouse Jones
Among his contributions is this
Back BALLYANDY for the Supreme

Page 4
Simon Holt does what he always does
Bores you and gives no insight into future winners

Page 5
Tom Segal has 2 positives
EMPIRE OF DIRT in the Ryanair
NATIVE RIVER in the Gold Cup
Not a column I like to read much
Not convinced about EMPIRE OF DIRT
Not as a 10yo in a Grade 1 race
Who will have just 1 run since November come the day
He has completed his NATIVE RIVER U Turn
Before today he was banging on about Thistlecrack
Saying he was the best horse he had ever seen

Page 6
Alan King gives me the Kiss Of Death
YANWORTH in Great form prior to Kingswell
Trainer columns are Fake News
The Kiss of Death to anyone believing them
He also says Wincanton may not suit Yanworth
Just shut up about him and get him there are win

Page 8
Paul Kealy's tips for next Saturdays Racing
Ascot Chef D'Ouevre
Haydock Call To Order
Haydock Vieux Lion Rouge
Haydock Cresswell Breeze

Page 9
Paul Kealy's Ante Post Column
Interesting advice this week
Back Ballyandy in the Supreme
Back Movewiththetimes in the Supreme
Both bets echo my own views
Like Kealy I am at the mercy of running plans

Page 10
More Fake News with a stable tour
I can't be bothered to read Jessica Harrington

Page 11
Racing Post Ratings
Nice to see the Novice Hurdle Numbers
The best 3 novices this year
West Approach 157
Ballyandy 151
Movewiththetime 151
The Juvenile Hurdle ratings
Show DEFI DU SEUIL 7lbs clear of everything
Makes you wonder about the Triumph Hurdle
Could he be a bet each way at 4/1 in that race
Initial answer is no after checking
He is only 3/1 and there are only 3 places right now
In terms of the Hurdlers
The leading hurdler in 167 is Unowwhatimeanharry
166 Nichols Canyon 166 Petit Mouchoir
YANWORTH is next on 165 with The New One
Interesting the current Champion Hurdle favourite
Buveur D'Air is not there as he only has a 156 rating

Page 14
Ken Pitterson and I am a big fan of his
He is criticising Native River a little bit
Questioning if Cheltenham will suit
Given he "disappointed" in last years 4 miler
That is a ridiculous
He was 2nd in the 4 miler as a french Bred
It was a fantastic run in my eyes
Rare I find much to criticise this man for
This weeks horse to follow is Mary Eleanor

Page 15
Peter Naughtons Column
Sorry but I can't look at him or read his work

Page 16
Article on Ken Slack a Cumbria Trainer
Has 12 horses and getting good results
Credits this on a New Diet for his horses
Buys 16 litres of Goats Milk a week
Adds Guinness and Honey to their diet
Says his horses improve because of this
Article says trainer is +£80 to level stakes
Says to watch his runners at Sedgefield
Interesting article
Mentions Calliope a horse to follow

Page 17
Pietro Innicenzi's All Weather Column
This weeks tips from him
Thursday - Zephyros, Wellliesinthewater
Friday - Amazement , Golly Miss Molly
Saturday - Rosealee, Lord Cooper

M o n d a y ' s S u m m a r y

I switched days off and did a Monday message
Only 2 previews with 1 race dominating the analysis
Officially the best bet was SAME CIRCUS 11/10
He won easily so we got that right at least
I tried to get the 1st 2nd 3rd 4th in the race
Ended up with the 1st and 4th correct
Just the 2nd and 3rd in the wrong order
That cost us winners in the Novelty markets
Meant there was no icing on the cake
But nobody should have lost on that race
The other unhighlighted selection lost
Wasn't much I could do after a long stint
And that led to taking a day off yesterday.

P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s

W o l v e r h a m p t o n 2.00

11/4 Cape Spirit, 9/2 Tingo In The Tale
5/1 Chestnut Storm, 6/1 Scrafton, 9/1 Barnacle
9/1 Mighty Missile, 10/1 Celestial Dancer
10/1 Fire In Babylon, 16/1 Hyperlink.

This is a 1m 5f handicap
It is for Apprentice riders
And as it as Hands and Heels race
They are not allowed to use their whip

Which tells me to concentrate on fitter horses
If you look at the 7 past renewals
6 of the 7 winners raced within 19 days
They all raced within 34 days
And if you look at their last 3 months
The 7 winners all had at least 3 runs in that time
I do not want a horse that can not offer that

CAPE SPIRIT does not offer that
She is an older mare without a run in 4 weeks
She has never won a race before in 20 attempts
She is average but this is a weak race
This might be her day but there are fitter profiles
And horses that match past winners unlike her
HYPERLINK is absent 274 days
FIRE IN BABYLON is absent 508 days
Not the kind of race that rewards long absences

I want a horse with several recent runs
CELESTIAL DANCER doesn't offer that
She has never won before and has poor numbers
All 7 winners had 3 or more runs in the last 3 months
BARNACLE does not offer that
I have stamina problems with him
His sire gives me no confidence in his stamina
MIGHTY MISSILE also has stamina issues
His sires runners over 9f and more are 0-50
This is 13f and he is very hard to warm to

CHESTNUT STORM has a chance
Not keen she is a filly absent over a month
All past winners were more experience than her
But I think she failed to stay last time
I think she has excuses for her 2 mile races
She has ability and this trip could suit her

TINGO IN THE TALE has plenty to prove
He is on a losing run of 32 since 2012
He is stepping up from a mile race
Thats a 5f jump in distance which is radical

SCRAFTON is the best match
Meets all my fitness demands statistically
If you look at races between 12f and 14f
His Numbers are comfortably clear this season
The following table illustrates this
Racing Post Ratings
12f 13f 14f races
Since Jan 1st 2016

73 Scrafton
70 Scrafton
64 Scrafton
63 Tingo In The Tale
62 Tingo In The Tale
60 Scrafton - Chestnut Storm
59 Scrafton
58 Scrafton - Scrafton - Cape Spirit
57 Chestnut Storm - Cape Spirit
56 Cape Spirit - Cape Spirit - Cape Spirit
54 Tingo In The Tale
52 Celestial Dancer
51 Celestial Dancer

Selection

£4 Each Way SCRAFTON 4/1

£2 Win Bet CHESTNUT STORM 6/1

T o w c e s t e r 2.10

4/5 Bandon Roc, 9/2 Flobury, 8/1 Admiral Blake
8/1 Benability, 12/1 Some Finish, 14/1 Bennys Girl
20/1 Goodnight Charlie, 25/1 Diamond Reflection.

2m 3f Handicap Hurdle
We have an odds on favourite

BANDON ROC on a hat trick is 8/11
I could raise some doubts about his profile
Dropping down from 3m 1f to 2m 3f

But for the bottom line is the numbers
His opponents have not run fast enough
Not to interest me against an improver
I would be very annoyed with myself
If I backed the favourite and lost
When he is dropping down so far in trip in 6 days
So I decided that if you gave me a tenner
I would Split stake that tenner
Either that or a Place Only bet

Selection

Option 1

£5 Win Bandon Rock 8/11
£5 Place Fiobury 4/5

Option 2

£10 Place on Fiobury at 4/5

N e w c a s t l e 2.20

9/4 Crackdeloust, 9/4 Thisonetime, 3/1 Derrynane
6/1 Applaus, 12/1 Invictus, 14/1 Chapel Stile
40/1 Log On, 66/1 Paddling, 100/1 Bahrikate.

2m Novice Hurdle
202 similar races in February

CRACKDELOUST may be unsafe
Not comfortable with his profile
He raced 11 days ago and that was his hurdling debut

February Novice Hurdles
2m and 2m 1f
Horses with 1 hurdle run
Coming from 2m 2f or shorter
Beaten last time
Running in the last 15 days
Have a 0-64 record
CRACKDELOUST fails this 0-64 profile

If I extend that to 3 different months
January February March
Novice Hurdles over 2m and 2m 1f
Horses with 1 hurdle run
Coming from 2m 2f or shorter
Beaten last time
Running in the last 13 days
Horses with this profile are 0-135
CRACKDELOUST fails this 0-135 profile

INVICTUS is easy to overlook
CHAPEL STILE hasn't done enough yet

DERRYNANE has a weak enough profile
Horses aged 6 or more
1 Hurdle race
Coming from 2m 2f or shorter
Running within 12 weeks
Have a very modest 1-84 record
That winner had 27 days absence and he has 42
That winner (Bogside) ran far better last time

APPLAUS is interesting
Micky Hammond trains
Bits of his profile I find repulsive
But he has positives two
And I can find a winner quite like him
And coincidentally it was a stablemate (Dakota Grey)
APPLAUS is a potential saver
Would have been if I had a win bet

THISONETIME is shortlistable
Profile only acceptable though
I fancied him last time in a weak race
Doesn't matter to me the form has been let down
But his profile is only acceptable

Selection

THISONETIME 6/4

I think he is an each way double option

Newcastle 2.20 - THISONETIME 6/4

Wolverhampton 5.00 - MS GILLARD 5/2

Each Way Double

W o l v e r h a m p t o n 3.30

15/8 Mythical Madness, 9/4 Third Time Lucky
9/2 Andastra, 17/2 Bancnuanaheireann, 33/1 Lanceur.

Class 2 Conditions race

MYTHICAL MADNESS has 3 recent runs
Racing Post Ratings of 104 106 104
THIRD TIME LUCKY has 3 decent numbers
His last 3 races produced 101 104 102

I am asking myself
Can ANDASTRA really match that ?
When a filly with just 1 career start
When she also has a 504 day absence

I have to doubt her
She looked quality when winning her maiden
She got a 33/1 quote for last years Oaks after doing it
But she missed all of 2016
And I just can not entertain her here

My problem is which to go for
MYTHICAL MADNESS
or
THIRD TIME LUCKY

I can't rule either out

Option 1 could be a Match Bet
Either of these to beat Andrastra

Option 2

THIRD TIME LUCKY 11/4-3/1 each way
Only 2 places but a 1/4 the odds a place
I think he should finish 1st or 2nd

Option 3 is a split stake bet

£7 Win Bet MYTHICAL MADNESS 15/8
£3 Win Bet THIRD TIME LUCKY 5/2
Prices are very tight
But if we could get the above prices
MYTHICAL MADNESS would double our money
THIRD TIME LUCKY would return it if winning

Option 2 or 3 are more suitable for us

I like Option 2 best on paper
But I'd be worried about the price collapsing
So I will go with Option 3

£7 Win Bet MYTHICAL MADNESS 15/8
£3 Win Bet THIRD TIME LUCKY 5/2

W o l v e r h a m p t o n 4.00

11/4 Malaysian Boleh, 5/1 Top Offer, 6/1 Dodgy Bob
13/2 Light From Mars, 13/2 Mime Dance
7/1 Call Out Loud, 8/1 Pool House
14/1 Oeil De Tigre, 16/1 Order Of Service.

This is a 7f selling race
There are only 23 of these races in February

MALAYSIAN BOLEH presents me with a dilemma
I have said before he does not stay 7f
I believe that and feel stamina will beat him today
But his numbers suggest I am wrong
His 7f Numbers are good enough to take this
I don't want to be dogmatic ignoring obvious facts
The compromise could be the 39 day absence
Obviously going to be harder for him with that break
And horses with absences struggle

Look at the 23 similar selling races in February
Horses running within 2 weeks won 22 of them
Horses absent over 15 days were 1-71
MALAYSIAN BOLEH fails this 1-71 record
Thats not as good as it sounds
As no horses raced in the last 12 days
And they are gold dust in these races
But I bring myself to select a horse
Who may not stay with one of the longest absences
MALAYSIAN BOLEH is therefore passed over

Horses aged 4 score badly in these races
In fact the only winners aged 4 ran within 7 days
Those that did not had a 0-30 record
DODGY BOB has this profile

I have fitness problems with a few of these

LIGHT FROM MARS is 12 and absent 88 days
No 12yo has won any similar race in February
ORDER OF SERVICE doesn't look fit of running well
TOP OFFER has raced just once since August
Not enough for a horse as old as 8
OEIL DE TIGRE has 40 days off the track
He has raced just once in 71 days
There are fitter and safer options

Shortlist

POOL HOUSE - Profile fine
Not raced over this short a trip in 15 months though

MIME DANCE is shortlistable with a recent run
He was entitled to have needed his last run

CALL OUT LOUD looks the fittest horse
He has raced 4 times since New Years Day
None of the others have raced more than twice
Main worry is why he is drifting so much

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet CALL OUT LOUD 9/1

£3.00 Win Bet MIME DANCE 6/1

£1.00 Win Bet POOL HOUSE 9/1

W o l v e r h a m p t o n 5.30

9/4 Ms Gillard, 5/2 Sea Dweller, 100/30 Alhajjaj
8/1 Bob Hopeful, 8/1 Incredible Dream
10/1 Golden Muscade, 33/1 One For Jodie
50/1 Barbary Prince, 50/1 Twilight Angel
50/1 Way Up High.

This is an all aged maiden
Open to horses aged 4 or more just short of 10f
Statistically we are in trouble
Only 3 of these races have been run in February
Only 1 of those has been run since 2007
So we are going to have to think differently

SEA DWELLER has 3 runs
Racing Post Ratings of 69 72 77
That rating of 72 is the best in this race
But I am uncomfortable with his profile
He only raced 2 days ago
He was beaten 6 lengths in that race
I played around with some angles
This was about the best argument against him I found

Maiden races
Any time of year
Any distance
Horses aged 4 or more
Running within the last 5 days
Under 6 career starts
Horses with this profile have a 1-91 record
Those doing it with under 4 career starts
Have a 0-60 record all year round

I would rather be with MS GILLARD
She is a filly admittedly
But she has recent runs and is experienced
She should run her race and go well

Some of them could improve and go well
But none of them look too convincing
INCREDIBLE DREAM was thrashed 2 weeks ago
BOB HOPEFUL also well beaten last time
Both outsiders on their debuts need to improve a lot

ALHAJJAJ could improve but he needs to
I couldn't trust his trainer much
And he could be after a handicap mark today

GOLDEN MUSCADE didn't stay 12f last time
She isn't certain to stay today either
She will need 10lbs improvement to threaten

MS GILLARD looks the safer choice
There is an elephant in the room though
Admitting I want to go each way at 5/2
I will leave that up to you

Selection

MS GILLARD 5/2

Win Bet
or
Each Way

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Best Wishes

Guy Ward

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk