Mathematician 2237
Saturday June 20th
0 Account Bet
1 Selection
1 Profile & Preview bets
0 Negative
15 Races Discussed
We are told heavy rain will hit Ascot around 1pm
and it could be ground changing weather. I don't
feel it will make it much easier or harder anyway.
It won't affect my Ascot bets in the message as I
consider them smaller stake interest bets only.
Gowran Park and Down Royal offer races I liked
a lot more. My main business will be there with a
few extra mini previews elsewhere to finish off.
Today's Selection
Gowran Park 2.15
THANKS FOR TEA 5/1
Each Way
5/1 Bet365 Skybet Betfred PPower
5/1 Corals Hills Bettfair Tote
Profile & Preview bet
Gowran Park 2.50
PACK THE PUNCH 5/2
Each Way
5/2 Corals Hills PPower Skybet
5/2 Bet365 Stan J Betfair
Today's Message
There could be a danger of the weather spoiling
a few things like prices or non runners reducing
field sizes so just be aware of that and realise if
that happened I'd have changed my stakes a bit.
There are 4 possible bets today and it's a matter
of trying to pick my best of them for the main bet.
Down Royal 2.00
LITTLE SWEETHEART 4/1
Each Way
Gowran Park 2.15
THANKS FOR TEA 5/1
Each Way
Gowran Park 2.50
PACK THE PUNCH 5/2
Each Way
Gowran Park 4.35
MOONUNDERWATER 4/1
Each Way
Down Royal 2.00
LITTLE SWEETHEART 4/1 E/W
I was very confident most of the morning. Then
It dawned on me there are better horses against
her. Do we want an inferior horse getting weight
and is there a case for going for a classier horse
conceding weight ? Do I want to bet a 4yo filly
off bottomweight and I've had second thoughts.
I have gone a bit colder on her. She was my bet
at Breakfast. I have backed her. Now I am going
to go with one of my others. She is worth a bet
but probably a little short of selection strength.
Gowran Park 2.15
THANKS FOR TEA 5/1 Each Way
One small staking dilemma here
I could have a win bet and saver
Thanks For Tea to win at 5/1
Davids Jewel as a Saver at 2/1
I think I have chosen right
Gowran Park 2.50
PACK THE PUNCH 5/2 (E/W)
This is an annoying one
I wanted an each way bet at 4/1
I really like his profile and chance
Problem is he is 5/2 and not 4/1
I fancy Cecil Corbett as well
They are too short for win and savers
I am biting the bullet here
Going each way at 5/2
I hate myself for doing it
But Value is an illusion of time and space
May not look value now
If it jumps the last in front it will
Gowran Park 4.35
MOONUNDERWATER 4/1 Each Way
This is a cold emotionless data bet
Winning with a recent run
I know how many did this
I know where they finished
The percentages are very clear
Very good chance of winning
High probability of a place
It is a cold raw heartless percentage bet
I have chose two of the 4
Thankless task as the other 2 may win
I'm not going to go with four bets
I thought about squeezing a third bet
Down Royal 2.00 LITTLE SWEETHEART 4/1
Gowran Park 4.35 MOONUNDERWATER 4/1
Win Bet on Each
Each Way Double on both
Thats up you
Bottom line is I fancy all four
Luck has to play a part in choosing between them
D a i l y N e g a t i v e s
No Negative Today
Results of Negatives
13 correct bets from 15
F r i d a y s S u m m a r y
I played it very safe yesterday with two horses
in an each way double. I don't like this bet but
they were in the correct races and both horses
ran very well in finishing second. Staked were
returned and several will have made a profit if
getting the first leg at 4/1. Happy enough with
that bet. Both races went to script and we did
have a fair chance of winning both races with
very little chance of either horse not placing.
P r o f i l e & P r e v i e w s
D o w n R o y a l 2.00
7/2 Calm Bay, 7/2 Shipyard, 6/1 Danz Gift
6/1 Little Sweetheart, 6/1 National Service
8/1 Coto, 8/1 Majestic Timeline, 12/1 Your Pal Tal.
* This is a 5f handicap for 0-82 rated horses
* Only a few of these can be overlooked
* NATIONAL SERVICE looks underraced this year
* MAJESTIC TIMELINE is out absent 134 days
* YOUR PAL TAL will probably need the run today
* He has raced just once in over 4 months
* There is weakness in COTO's chance
* 3yo filly with an absence against older horses
* Just 1 race since last July
* She is very fast and has backclass though
* I would refrain from calling her a negative
* 3 year olds have nearly won this race more than once
* They are 0-26 though in the recent past
* SHIPYARD - I can see a case why he could win
* I just wonder if this 5f trip will be too sharp
* There was a race at Navan 7 days ago
* CALM BAY finished 2nd in that race
* DANZ GIFT finished 3rd in that race
* LITTLE SWEETHEART finished 4th in that race
LITTLE SWEETHEART is very interesting
I can see her reversing the form today
She was on the bridle and cruising with 1/2 furlong to go
She was just ran out of it in the last few yards
She will love the switch to this track
Navan (last time) is undulating with a stiff climb to the finish
Down Royal is far sharper and 5f times show this
It takes a couple of seconds less to run 5f here
I don't think she will get caught
The same happened on her previous run at Navan
She had a big field destroyed before fading very late
If you watch the video of her last 2 races
You will grow in confidence about her chance
CALM BAY only beat her last time as she faded
LITTLE SWEETHEART easily had her measure before that
DANZ GIFT could be lengths behind if held up again
I think and hope this race will go one way
LITTLE SWEETHEART from trap to line leading all the way
Selection
LITTLE SWEETHEART 4/1
Each Way
R e d c a r 2.05
7/4 Blue Humor, 3/1 Receding Waves
4/1 Donjuan Triumphant, 6/1 Highly Sprung
10/1 Adherence, 10/1 Silver Sands
33/1 Druid´s Diamond, 100/1 Saxon Gold.
I think BLUE HUMOR will win
I think RECEDING WAVES will place
I opposed RECEDING WAVES last time
Failed a 0-80 stat at Bath
No unraced horse has won there drawn 1
I rate him better than he showed
He may struggle to beat BLUE HUMOR
He has an extra run and better numbers
I like both of these
I feel they squeeze out Donjuan Triumphant
Option 1 is RECEDING WAVES each way 9/2
Option 2 is a split stake bet
BLUE HUMOR to win 5/4
RECEDING WAVES to place 4/6
I like both options
I will leave that one up to you
I fancy both bets
I think they could be 1st and 2nd
N e w m a r k e t 2.10
This is a 2yo maiden over 7f
Not nearly enough evidence
If I had to suggest a bet
It would be a place lay of Zebadiah
Horses sired by Zebedee
Running over 7f or more
Under 3 career starts
Horses with this profile have a 0-47 record
Zebadiah has ran before and most others haven't
Thats a worry but his R.Post Rating was poor
I am opposing him on the breeding stat
I would prefer to oppose him in a match bet
G o w r a n P a r k 2.15
9/4 Tigroney, 5/2 Davids Jewel, 7/2 Miss North Light
11/2 Thanks For Tea, 12/1 Isnt Dat Right, 16/1 Courtin Bb
20/1 Tortueuse, 25/1 Bachtobach, 33/1 Dawns Bach
33/1 Wareeds Tune, 50/1 Bawnogues Bahri
50/1 Lola Kabana, 50/1 Nickel.
This is a mares maiden hurdle over 2m4f
Just looking at horses from bumpers
Take the period June July August September
Mares Maiden Hurdles
Any Distance during these 4 months
There are 230 of these Mares Maiden Hurdles
Horses from Bumper races were 9-347
Those without any hurdles experience were 5-304
The 5 winners were aged 4 (1-52) and 5 (4-126)
Horses aged 6 or more were 0-126
This tells me to oppose 6yo's from Bumpers
TIGRONEY has this problem as a 6yo
MISS NORTH LIGHT has this problem as a 6yo
I would stay with the hurdlers
Shortlist
DAVIDS JEWEL is respected. Modest like all of them
THANKS FOR TEA has handicap hurdle experience
Comes out well on the numbers and recent runs
I felt she had most to offer
Selection
THANKS FOR TEA 5/1
Each Way
A s c o t 2.30
5/2 Ballydoyle, 3/1 Tonkinese, 6/1 Cymric
8/1 Love The Kitten, 10/1 Suits You, 12/1 Dessertoflife
12/1 Force, 12/1 Red Artist, 14/1 Sixth Sense
16/1 Palawan, 40/1 Sixties Sue, 100/1 Lady Nayef.
* The Chesham is for 2 year olds over 7f
* The winner should have 1-2 career starts
* Should come from 6f or 7f
* The winner always starts under 33/1
* The winner should be 1-2-3 last time out
* They wont have lost by more than 4 lengths last time
* Last time out They will have been under 16/1
* Racing post ratings winners had going into this race
* 76 80 95 92 87 74 87 85 83 82
* I'd want a Racing Post Rating of at least 76 last time out
* This only takes a handful of horses out
* I would also take out the unraced CYMRIC
* None have won this race yet
* I didn't like SUITS YOU on breeding
* DESSERTOFLIFE has 2 slight anomalies with her profile
* There were 3 winning fillies in the Chesham
* All 3 fillies had 1 previous races
* DESSERTOFLIFE fails that as a filly with 2 runs
* She also comes from a 7f race
* None of the past winners did that
* Only 12 tried and only 5 were fancied
* None of them won or placed though
* Maybe other horses improve more at a new trip
* DESSERTOFLIFE is therefore unlike a winner
* Not keen on her draw either
* TONKINESE has the same problem
* He comes from 7f and no past winners have done
* He has the best numbers though
* BALLYDOYLE 4th last time fails my angles
* You have to give extra credit to the connections
* She was after all odds on for her debut
* BALLYDOYLE is a filly with 1 run
* No filly won beaten last time
* Statistically she is not like a winner
* No surprise if she were to overcome that though
Shortlist
* BALLYDOYLE - My angles say no
* I think she could be a place bet at 4/6
* LOVE THE KITTEN - USA raider clearly respected
* RED ARTIST -Not first choice but profile fine
* FORCE - closest match was last years winner
Selection
FORCE 9/1 Win Bet
BALLYDOYLE 4/6 Place Bet
D o w n R o y a l 2.35
4/6 Independence Day, 2/1 Reckless Endeavour,
10/1 Zebgrey, 14/1 China Eyes, 16/1 Love Is All Around
50/1 Anania, 100/1 Arjeed, 100/1 Trenchtown Rock
100/1 You Gotta Move.
This is a 2yo maiden
INDEPENDENCE DAY has raced once
RECKLESS ENDEAVOUR has raced once
Both recorded the same Racing Post Rating
Both ran behind high class horses
I prefer INDEPENDENCE DAY of the pair
He looks the more substantial horse
RECKLESS ENDEAVOUR is not a big horse
INDEPENDENCE DAY just appealed more
I dont want the unraced filly ZEBGREY
She has found herself in a warm race
Selection
INDEPENDENCE DAY 10/11 Win Bet
Not a big bet. The second favourite is fancied
and some may prefer him e/w as a burglary bet.
I shan't bother with the race
I just feel INDEPENDENCE DAY has a bit more.
G o w r a n P a r k 2.50
9/4 Kilkishen, 5/2 Cecil Corbett, 4/1 Pack The Punch
10/1 Cadawill, 12/1 Sidswar, 16/1 Cillian´s Well
16/1 Serious Times, 20/1 Pageantry, 20/1 Shannak
25/1 Tomara, 25/1 Troubleshot, 33/1 Blackstone Edge
33/1 May Harmony, 50/1 Delahoya River.
This is a 2m 4f maiden hurdle
Horses from bumpers do win these races
Not many though and they score badly
It's almost impossible to find good profiles from bumpers
Take KILKISHEN for example
Horses that raced in Bumpers were 5-187
These 5 winners ran at least 5 weeks beforehand
Those that raced within the last month were 0-77
KILKISHEN absent 19 days fails that
Not a significant angle but there will be more
You can always squeeze these horses statistically
Not saying they can't or don't win
There are usually always better profiles against them
CILLIAN´S WELL has the same problem
CADAWILL is hard to read
From a Hunter Chase he isn't like any winners
SERIOUS TIMES has the same problem
Neither horse would be my first choice
Neither would the unraced SIDSWAR
Shortlist
CECIL CORBETT - Has every chance
PACK THE PUNCH comes out very well
Male horses aged 5
Starting under 16/1
Having between 6-7-8 previous hurdle races
Beaten under 20 lengths last time out
Horses with this profile had a 5-8 record
They finished W W PU W 2 W 2 W
If I only look at pro jockeys it becomes a 5-6 record
I like PACK THE PUNCH's profile
I like his jockey as well
He landed the main bet on Wednesday for us
Selection
PACK THE PUNCH 5/2
A s c o t 3.05
11/4 Mahsoob, 7/1 Provenance, 8/1 Collaboration
8/1 First Flight, 10/1 Ayrad, 12/1 Educate, 12/1 Fire Fighting
12/1 Mount Logan, Niceofyoutotellme, 12/1 Sennockian Star
20/1 Don´t Stare, 20/1 Fattsota, 20/1 Groundbreaking
20/1 Super Moon, 25/1 Dick Doughtywylie
50/1 Ocean Tempest.
* This is a 10f Listed race handicap for all aged horses
* There have been 12 renewals of this race
* Past winners had the following Flat runs
* 8 15 5 8 4 8 15 14 13 7 6 6 14
* The most experienced winner had 15 career starts
* I am going to oppose those with a lot more
* The following horses fail this angle
* FATTSOTA - FIRE FIGHTING - NICEOFYOUTOTELLME
* OCEAN TEMPEST - SUPER MOON - EDUCATE
* DICK DOUGHTYWYLIE - SENNOCKIAN STAR
* Many of these are 5-6 year olds
* These 2 ages have struggled and are just 1-76
* GROUNDBREAKING is out aged 5 absent 142 days
* DON´T STARE- Not looking for a 5yo
* I looked at every handicap run at Royal Ascot
* Thats over any distance since 1998
* Horses aged 4 absent more than 7 weeks
* When having over 8 career starts they were 0-48
* MOUNT LOGAN fails this and looks wrong
* Female horses are 0-28 in this race
* PROVENANCE is not my choice as a filly
* Not up in distance with just 1 run this season
Shortlist
* AYRAD is 4 and drops from 12f
* The 2004 2006 2011 winners did that with 6 7 8 career runs
* AYRAD is fine with 8 runs
* None though won last time as he did
* Winning last time is not a great sign in this race
* The 2012 winner did it but the overall record is 1-35
* MAHSOOB is very sexy with 3 runs
* Horses with under 4 runs are 0-14 in this race
* That inexperience could be a problem
* That said he has won his last 2 races from bad draws
* Winning last time is not a great sign in this race
* The 2012 winner did it but the overall record is 1-35
* Despite that it would be foolish to underestimate him
* FIRST FLIGHT is 4 and has 1 run this season
* Profile acceptable but I don't like Stall 1
* He is not a big horse either which worries me
* COLLABORATION is another who won last time
* The 2012 winner did it but the overall record is 1-35
* Otherwise his profile is fine
Selection
No idea how to stake this race
Staked to £10
£3 FIRST FLIGHT 9/1
£3 COLLABORATION
£2 Each Way AYRAD 16/1
N e w m a r k e t 3.20
The only bet I could consider here
Would be a match bet
I am against Cartier. Don't fancy her.
I'd bet against her if there is a match bet
Small stakes. Amazing Speed to beat Cartier
A s c o t 3.40
11/10 Telescope, 7/2 Postponed, 4/1 Eagle Top
10/1 Hillstar, 10/1 Snow Sky, 20/1 Sheikhzayedroad
25/1 Red Cadeaux.
* The Hardwicke Stakes is a Group 2 over 12f
* None of the last 28 winners came from 14f or more
* SNOW SKY is therefore unsafe
* HILLSTAR is a seasonal debutant
* I couldn't bet him over a trip he barely stays
* EAGLE TOP has 1 run this year
* I would rather have a horse with more than 1 run
* Winners do win this race with 1 run
* I don't have a big issue with his profile
* TELESCOPE is a 5 year old
* There were 3 winners aged 5 in recent years
* One won first time out the other 2 came from 10f
* Horses aged 5 from 12f races have struggled recently
* Those that raced this year were 0-15 since 1997
* There were winners like him in the 1990's
* Shortlistable and respected but not the best profile
* SHEIKHZAYEDROAD may be too big at 40/1
* Simply because he comes from the best trial race
* Horses aged 6 that came from the Coronation Cup
* They have a very smart W W 3 W W 3 record
* 3 of these were beaten further than he was in that
* He looks outclassed but I make him a positive
* POSTPONED must be shortlisted
* The last 7 winners were 4 year olds
* These had 7 9 7 5 7 11 8 career starts
* They had 2 2 1 2 3 3 runs that season
* Any 4yo with 5-11 runs and 1-2-3 this year is ideal
* POSTPONED has this profile
Selection
Staked to £10
£8 Win POSTPONED 3/1
£1 E/W SHEIKHZAYEDROAD 33/1
A s c o t 4.20
5/2 Brazen Beau, 9/2 Mustajeeb, 8/1 Due Diligence
10/1 Tropics, 10/1 Wandjina, 12/1 Undrafted
14/1 Pearl Secret, 20/1 Glass Office, 20/1 Gordon Lord Byron
20/1 Moviesta, 20/1 Music Master, 25/1 Astaire
25/1 Lucky Kristale, 33/1 Ansgar, 33/1 Caspar Netscher.
* The Diamond Jubilee is a Group 1 sprint over 6f
* Older horses aged 7 + haven't done well in this
* There was one past winner aged 7 or more
* He won a York when Ascot was closed.
* That 7yo had a very recent run and 5 runs that season.
* ANSGAR is too underraced for a 7yo
* GORDON LORD BYRON looks underraced too
* I opposed him last time as he was not fit
* I doubt he will be fit enough to win today
* TROPICS is also a 7 year old
* I can't have a 7yo with just 1 run this season
* MOVIESTA looks wrong and unfit
* Just 1 run this year and 105 days absence
The longest absent winner had 66 days off
* LUCKY KRISTALE - I don't want a 4yo filly
* ASTAIRE is too badly weighted
* MUSIC MASTER - Not first choice from 5f
* GLASS OFFICE - No Group 1 form worries me
* WANDJINA is an Australian 3yo
* Impossible to read but his absence worries me
* I don't see him as safe much as I can't be sure
* MUSTAJEEB was impressive in Ireland
* Not sure how strong a race that was
* I had some big unfit negatives in that race
* I think it was a soft race. Could win. Not for me
* DUE DILIGENCE has an unorthodox profile
* Not keen he is 4 and has 62 days off
* Throw in 1 run this season and down from 7f
* Win lose or draw it is not a profile I see as safe
Shortlist
* CASPAR NETSCHER - May not enough positives
* Comes from the best trial race. Gets him shortlisted
* PEARL SECRET comes from the Kings Stand on Tuesday
* There were 4 recent winners that came from that race
* The 4 that did it were all beaten under 5 lengths last time
* PEARL SECRET can match that so is respected
* He has yet to prove he is suited by 6f
* UNDRAFTED is an American 5yo
* BRAZEN BEAU is an Australian 3yo
* Trainer says the best sprinter in Australia
I will go with BRAZEN BEAU
It can only be a guess really as you will appreciate
G o w r a n P a r k 4.35
7/2 Moonunderwater, 8/1 Anna Holty, 9/1 No Kidding
10/1 Glendaars Best, 10/1 Indian Rupee, 11/1 Comedy Club
11/1 Sharjah, 11/1 Supreme Vic, 12/1 Baccalaureate
16/1 Broadway Twist, 16/1 Chakisto, 16/1 Cloudy Morning
16/1 Invincible Don, 16/1 Timanora, 20/1 Elis Gury
20/1 First Trim, 20/1 Luimneach Abu, 33/1 Aqua Regia
33/1 Ballyine, 33/1 Warreedy.
This is a big field handicap hurdle
Most of these runners are unfamiliar of course
I am just interested in MOONUNDERWATER
Always worth looking at horses winning very recently
They are often good each way bets in similar races
You may get something that can beat them
Usually though not enough can to get them unplaced
Here is an example of what I mean
* Handicap Hurdles in June
* Any Distance
* 0-110 Class or lower
* Horses winning last time
* Coming from a Handicap Hurdle
* Running within 3 days
* 16 horses had this profile in June
* This is where they finished
* 3 W W 2 2 W F 4 2 2 2 4 4 5 2 W
* 4 of the 16 won
* 11 of the 16 finished 1-2-3
* 14 of the 16 finished 1-2-3-4
* It shows when you bet them each way
* A win is very possible
* A place is highly probable at the least
Our chance will increase if we can rule others out
ANNA HOLTY is unsafe as a mare from a maiden hurdle
With just 2 hurdle runs I feel we can beat her
COMEDY CLUB is not safe as a 4yo
Not from a maiden hurdle facing 68 days off
There are plenty of dodgy looking profiles
Not many I can see are as safe as MOONUNDERWATER
He surely has to be the percentage call here
That is why selection in this race is this
MOONUNDERWATER 4/1
Each Way
Newmarket 5.55
5/2 Outback Ruler, 4/1 Use Your Filbert
9/2 Them And Us, 8/1 Kawaii, 10/1 Al Gomry
10/1 Harbour Patrol, 10/1 Marmalad, 12/1 Inniscastle Lad
14/1 Deluxe.
This is a 3yo handicap over 7f
Not sure I could bet Use Your Filbert
I would not have made her favourite with 2 runs
13 past renewals of this race
In this race horses with under 4 runs were 1-31
In this race horses with under 3 runs were 0-11
Use Your Filbert with 2 runs fails that
I'd rather bet OUTBACK RULER each way
Lingfield 6.00
7f maiden race
If I was forced to suggest a bet
It would be a PLACE LAY on The Major
Horses sired by Major Cadeaux
First time out are 0-49
Not an expensive horse
Not a trainer that does well with debutants
I can see The Major finishing unplaced
Haydock 6.15
2/1 Love On The Rocks, 9/2 Mr Lupton
11/2 Chicago School, 11/2 Stormy Art, 7/1 Ideal Recruit
8/1 Head East, 10/1 Tikthebox, 12/1 Mayfair Lady
16/1 Thatsallimsaying, 33/1 Belledesert
33/1 Vinnies Vixen.
I'd have to guess in this 2yo maiden
I couldn't risk a bet on the favourite
LOVE ON THE ROCKS is drawn 1
21 races here since 2013 with 9 + runners
Horses drawn 1 and 2 are 0-37 in these races
Go back to 2011 and Stall 1 is 1-36 here
I'd be looking elsewhere
Something fancied each way
****************************************************
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Best Wishes
Guy Ward
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk
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