Mathematician Betting Horse Racing Analysis and Tip Message

A copy of our Irish horse racing only / equine flu weekend

Saturday service newsletter from Feb 9th.

Anything in RED was added later.

Mathematician 3143
Saturday February 9th

8 Races Discussed
0 Account Bet
1 Highlighted Bet

Highlighted Account

Naas 3.40

£2.50 Each Way COMMANDANT 14/1 [2nd]

£2.50 Each Way GLENDAARS WARRIOR 14/1

1/4 the odds

1-2-3-4-5 Places

7 places - William Hill
6 places - Skybet PPower Uniber
5 Places - Most other firms
4 Places - Bet365 Spbet

Betting The Message

Naas is the only show in town
Have to make the best of things
Whilst the industry is disrupted

Covered all 8 races on the card
Some races require guesswork
Not all are particularly friendly
Many wouldn't normally be here
But without a normal schedule
Just hope we get enough right

Going with 1 highlighted bet
Two big priced bets each way

Only need 1 of these to place
And we will not lose any money
There are 5 available places
As many as 7 with William Hill
Worth a try on 1 card Saturday

PROFILES & PREVIEWS

Naas 12.40

1/3 City Island, 4/1 Chavi Artist, 16/1 An Fraoch Mor,
20/1 Seeyouinvinnys, 25/1 The Echo Boy, 33/1 Cadougarde,
33/1 Edelweis De L'aube, 66/1 Doyen's Diva,
100/1 Farranreigh.

2m 3f Novice Hurdle

CITY ISLAND is long odds on
His form has been boosted as well
Difficult to oppose impossible to bet

Interested in what finishes placed

CHAVI ARTIST is 2nd favourite
Every other horse is 20/1 and more
Based on his Racing Post Ratings
You'd expect him to finish second here
But he had shown nothing before that
He was 100/1 and unconsidered last time
Maybe that performance flattered him

THE ECHO BOY ran well last time
It was his hurdling debut over 2m 4f
He faced 3 very decent prospects last time
He was in front round the final bend
Understandable he faded after that
He started only 10/1 to win that race
He might just nick one of the places here

CITY ISLAND should win
But as he is so short a price
Have to go into Novelty markets

Selection

THE ECHO BOY 28/1-33/1 [2nd]

Novelty markets are in play here

The Each Way single 28/1
Pays 9/4 if he is 1st 2nd 3rd

Or just have a Place Bet at 9/4
Or bet him Without The Favourite

In Betfairs 4 Places available Market
The Echo Boy is reasonable at 11/10
Thats fair behind a long odds on fav

Naas 1.10

15/8 Debuchet, 11/4 Sky Marshal, 13/2 Drop The Anchor,
7/1 Emily Moon, 7/1 Empire Escape, 10/1 Cool Getaway,
12/1 Pont Aven, 16/1 Prosecution, 20/1 Road Warrior,
33/1 Circling Moon, 50/1 King Alex, 50/1 Pat Coyne,
66/1 The Longest Time, 66/1 Arthur's Quay, 66/1 Cray,
100/1 Odds Or Evens, Onefortherose, 100/1 An Marcach,
100/1 Daisy's Hollow, Darling Days, 100/1 Dubaimolly,
100/1 Ladymorata, Our Big Red, Rosmarine, Sharp As A Pin.

2m Maiden Hurdle

DEBUCHET sets a high standard
We can not know if he will repeat it
Had some smart form last season
Made Cheltenham's Supreme Novice
Where he was only beaten 12 lengths
He has yet to win in 6 hurdle runs
But has been highly tried in those
Has not been seen since September
DEBUCHET has a neutral profile
Closest 15 horses to try with his profile
Were all beaten but none were fancied

There are no strong profiles
No fancied negative profiles either
Comes down to trusting the stable
The trainers record is not convincing
Her record between January and April
Over hurdle and over fences
She has never trainer an absent winner
DEBUCHET is said to want good ground
Possible excuses for last 2 performances

SKY MARSHAL was an option
He is a pretty exposed flat horses
He faces some National Hunt types
Who are capable of improving fast
Was not convinced he was the danger
There are no safe each way options
DEBUCHET may be best as the saver
EMILY MOON has ran two decent races
Didn't get home last time over 2m 4f
When she jumped the 2nd last in front
Giving her a chance with the saver

Selection

Small Stakes

£6.50 Win Bet EMILY MOON 6/1 [WON]

£3.50 Win Bet DEBUCHET 2/1 [2nd]

Naas 1.40

2/1 Advantage Point, 9/4 All For Joy, 4/1 Fauguernon,
6/1 Royal Thief, 12/1 Vipers Nest, 14/1 Pairc Na Ngael,
16/1 You Can Call Me Al, 25/1 Take A Turn, 33/1 Bigger And Better
33/1 Montagne D'Argent, 40/1 Western Doyen, 50/1 Alcatraz,
50/1 Lilly Banner, Melman, Rock Samphire, 66/1 Bizzario,
66/1 Greanta, Nam, 66/1 No Way Jack, 66/1 Rainbow Pride,
100/1 Rio De Cerisy, 100/1 Bellaney Gem, Ricky Langford,
100/1 Rio Gold, Soft Focus.

2m Maiden hurdle

There looks a lot of dead wood

Racing Post Hurdle Ratings

124 Advantage Point
117 All For Joy
104 Advantage Point
102 Fauguernon

Two horses are well clear
Based on their hurdle ratings
ADVANTAGE POINT
ALL FOR JOY

But they face some smart prospects
ROYAL THIEF is an unraced 5yo
YOU CAN CALL ME AL is unraced
No reason why they can not win

FAUGUERON appears well backed
But he fails the following statistic

February
2m Maiden Hurdles
Horses aged 6
Running within 15 days
Beaten over 15 lengths last time
Return a 0-156 record

FAUGUERON has this 0-156 profile
PAIRC NA NGAEL shares this 0-156 profile

Both horses only just fail this
Having recent and heavy defeats
But they do both fail it
FAUGUERON is hardly safe anyway
Having raced once since 2017

Find it hard to commit to these
Against 2 established hurdle runners
VIPERS NEST is a hurdling debutant
Has yet to show enough to select him

ROYAL THIEF is unraced
He may be the biggest threat
But if you look at his sire Fame and Glory
His Hurdlers are only 4-63 so far
His unraced runners are yet to win a hurdle

Drawn most to experienced hurdlers
ADVANTAGE POINT 5/2
ALL FOR JOY 5/2

Either of these two horses
Could be each way singles at 5/2
They are difficult to read and split
So playing the race this way

Selection

£7 Win Bet ALL FOR JOY 9/4 [2nd]

£3 Win Bet ADVANTAGE POINT 11/4 [WON 5/1 SP]

Naas 2.10

4/6 Pravalaguna, 4/1 Synopsis, 7/1 Mrs Lovett,
8/1 Teacher's Pet, 10/1 Baie Des Iles,
50/1 Echoes Of Family, 200/1 Miss Titanic.

Listed Mares Chase

PRAVALAGUNA may be odds on
But she is the only horse in the race
Who did not disappoint last time out

SYNOPSIS has some decent numbers
But Pulled up jumping badly last time out
She is unsafe as it was only 15 days ago
BAIE DES LLES also pulled up last time
Down in distance by 1m 5f puts me off her

TEACHER'S PET should run well
MRS LOVETT has a small chance too
PRAVALAGUNA looks more progressive
Makes no real appeal at the price
But there is no safe alternative
With 7 runners limiting other options

Selection

PRAVALAGUNA 4/6 [WON]

Win Bet

Naas 2.40

6/4 Konitho, 3/1 Band Of Outlaws,
4/1 Coko Beach, 13/2 Maze Runner,
10/1 Elysian Plains, 16/1 Havingagoodtime.

4yo Hurdle
Lack of available evidence
The race is complicated further
Joseph O'Brien runs two horses
They are the 1st and 2nd favourites

KONITHO won here last time out
Subsequently bought by JP McManus
Deserves to be favourite on that win
But he had a 232 day absence beforehand
He comes back to the track just 13 days later
Raising the possibility he could well bounce
Impossible to know that before the race
That threat and a lack of other evidence
Pushes me more towards his stablemate
BAND OF OUTLAWS was smart on the flat
He has had two decent hurdle races
He won nicely last time in a big field
I would rather be with him each way

Selection

BAND OF OUTLAWS 11/4 - 3/1 [WON]

Each Way

1/4 Odds (2 Places)

Naas 3.10

5/1 Scoir Mear, 11/2 Bilbo Bagins,
6/1 Nellie Pledge, 6/1 Peculiar Genius, 6/1 Velocity Boy,
13/2 Roaring Bull, 7/1 Ask Nile, 14/1 Close Shave,
16/1 Spancil Hill, 20/1 Runyon Rattler, 33/1 Marakoush.

2m 4f Handicap Chase
February has 100 similar races

Number of Chase runs

12 Velocity Boy
11 Spancil Hill
10 Close Shave
10 Scoir Mear
8 Bilbo Bagins
8 Ask Nile
5 Peculiar Genius
4 Marakoush
4 Runyon Rattler
4 Roaring Bull
4 Nellie Pledge

VELOCITY BOY is topweight rated 130
His profile is a long way from safe
Well beaten last time over 3m 5f
Not for me dropping down over a mile
MARAKOUSH looks outclassed
BILBO BAGINS has just 1 run this year
He is the only horse that has this problem
He also has the longest absence as well
Wanted more recent runs for a 10yo
CLOSE SHAVE has raced twice this year
One fall and one heavy defeat last time
Not convinced of form or fitness
SPANCIL HILL has the same problem
Not enough promise in 2 runs this year
RUNYON RATTLER lacks positives

ASK NILE has been hurdling
Has not raced over fences in months
Can't rule him out but a tough weight
For a horse trying to get career back on track
Another worry is the trainer
Just 7 career winners in several years
The last of these was 636 days ago

SCOIR MEAR is a 9 year old
Running ok but yet to win over fences
I don't see an outstanding profile

Horses aged 8 or more
Horses coming from 3m races
Completing in that 3m race
Absent more than 33 days
Have a 0-34 record in similar races
Might pop up and is down in class
But wasn't particularly drawn to him

ROARING BULL is 6 with 4 Chase runs
He is one of the least exposed horses
His trainer described him as disappointing
Thatrs a bit harsh after just 4 chases
When he has won and placed in those
His last run was easily his worst yet
I would consider him as a saver bet

NELLIE PLEDGE is a lightly raced mare
Fell in a Graded Chase last time
But had previously won a handicap easily
That was a good win 2 races ago
She was stepping up a mile in distance
Given she is the joint least exposed
She may well be able to bounce back

PERCULIAR GENIUS is a 6yo
Main problem with his profile
He comes up from a 2m race
But that was only a hurdle race
So happy to forgive him that
Flat bred type may yet improve
I like the fact he is unexposed
And one of the youngest horses

Selection

Small Stakes

£4 Each Way PERCULIAR GENIUS 6/1 [L]

£2 Win Bet NELLIE PLEDGE 7/1 [L]

Naas 3.40

6/1 Empire Burleque, Thereisnodoubt, 8/1 Cappuccino Man,
8/1 Commandant, 8/1 Glendaars Warrior, 9/1 She's Made It,
10/1 Eviscerating, 12/1 William Of Wykeham, 14/1 Leave Your Mark,
14/1 Wade Harper, 16/1 Lake Malawi, 20/1 Punches Pious,
20/1 Roachdale House, Trenchtown Rock, Write It Down,
25/1 Captain Courageous, 25/1 Tashman, 33/1 Coral Blue,
33/1 Rathbride Prince, Skeaping, 40/1 Easy Cash D'alex,
50/1 Opportunity Knox, 50/1 Liclash.

2m Handicap Hurdle

Previous winners of this race
Were aged 13 7 9 7 6 9 8
No 4 or 5 year olds have won

This may be significant

February
Naas Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any Class
There are 19 of these races
17 of the 19 winners were aged 6-7-8-9

Horses aged 4 are 0-12
Horses aged 5 are 1-35

January February March
Naas Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any Class

There are 55 of these races
Horses aged 4 or 5 won 8 of them

Since 2016 they are 0-43
None won with over 10 hurdle runs
Those with 11st 4lbs or more are 0-21
Those with 10st 13lbs or more are 1-46

Certain younger horses
Have to be opposed in this race

WRITE IT DOWN is a 5yo
He is unsuitable from a maiden hurdle
Having so much weight hurts him too
OPPURTUNITY ROCKS is wrong aged 5
TASHMAN is opposed as a 4 year old
WILLIAM OF WYKEHAM is a 4 year old
Weak profile from a maiden hurdle
CORAL BLUE has the same problem
EASY CASH D'ALEX is the wrong age
RATHBRIDE PRINCE hard to like as a 3yo

January February March
Naas Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any Class
55 of these races
51 of these ran within 3 months
Horses with absences struggled

ROACHDALE HOUSE has 487 days off
As an exposed 8yo with topweight
He should have too much to do
LAKE MALAWI rejected absent 557 days
TRENCHTOWN ROCK has 131 days off
I'd oppose a horse that exposed with a break

PUNCHES PIOUS doesn't look fit enough
LILCASH has raced just once since 2016
SKEAPING has raced just once since 2017
That was a poor race when pulling up
Looks to have too much on with topweight
CAPTAIN COURAGEOUS doesn't offer enough
Not hammered at 66/1 in Maiden hurdles
WADE HARPER is a 9yo down half a mile
His recent numbers worryingly low
He was well beaten in last years race

LEAVE YOUR MARK has 4 runs
Last seen in a maiden hurdle 89 days ago

February
Naas Handicap Hurdles
Any distance or class
19 of these races
Horses from Novice or Maiden Hurdles
Have a modest 2-52 record
Both winners had shorter absences
LEAVE YOUR MARK is hardly safe

February
Handicap Hurdles
2m 2f or shorter
Any Course
Any Class

Horses from Maiden Hurdles
Under 7 lifetime starts
Running this season
Absent more than 8 weeks
Return a 0-24 record
LEAVE YOUR MARK is unsafe
Not a strong profile and lots of weight
He has 111st 10lbs here a mark of 107
His Racing Post Hurdle ratings all lower

SHE'S MADE IT is a mare
She is the only female in the race
She is also absent 65 days
Mares with under 14 runs
Absent more than 54 days
Have a 1-70 record in similar races
Those aged 6 or more were 0-56
There are safer profiles
But she has been well backed

EVISCERATING is down in distance
Not established his best distance yet
But unexposed and in good hands
But clearly not the stable number 1
And a big weight adds to his doubts

Shortlist

THEREISNODOUBT won last time
That was a career best performance
Raised 11lbs for a 9 length victory
Still has enough to be shortlisted

EMPIRE BURLEQUE is a lightly raced 7yo
Placed last time having made the running
Top class stable and not overburdened here
Future chaser but can win over hurdles

CAPPUCCINO MAN is a lightly raced 8yo
I see nothing wrong with his profile
His numbers suggest he is well treated
Entitled to need his last run as well
Every chance this is his distance
Much of his recent career
Has been over longer distances
On bad ground when unfit or not staying

COMMANDANT pulled up last time
There was an excuse for that run
He had Unseated rider the day before
He was shaping very nicely beforehand
Top class stable and an absence
Means he could easily bounce back

GLENDAARS WARRIOR is bottomweight
Career best Racing Post Rating of just 93
You can argue he may lack the class
But last time was a career best run
Staying on second in a big field handicap
He could be improving right now

Selection

£2.50 Each Way COMMANDANT 14/1 [2nd]

£2.50 Each Way GLENDAARS WARRIOR 14/1

Naas 4.10

13/8 Front View, 5/2 Barnes Des Mottes, 7/2 Zambezir
11/2 Special Brute, 7/1 My Uncas, 12/1 Jungle Junction,
20/1 Nero Rock, 40/1 Golden Treat, Lauderdale Lady,
40/1 Walking Fame, 50/1 Dreamy Leamy, Little Lady Lu,
50/1 No Grey Area's, 66/1 Arizona Boy.

4yo Bumper

FRONT VIEW sets the standard
Reasonably debut behind a hot pot
Racing Post rating of 110 is acceptable

ZAMBEZIR ran a rating of 100 on debut
Whilst he achieved less than Front View
He does have more space between races

4yo Bumpers
February and March
Horses with 1 career starts

Those running within 24 days are 1-42
Those running 25-42 days ago are 8-39

Not sure how relevant this is
FRONT VIEW only has 16 days absence
Not a lot of time since his career debut
He fits into that modest 1-42 profile
I can't risk him at a short price
Even if he is the most likely winner

ZAMBEZIR has 34 days off since his win
Horses absent 25-42 days scored better
There were 8 winners similar to him
So should we see this as a safer profile

This is not a two horse race
There are likeable newcomers
BARNES DES MOTTES appeals on paper
Comes here with a decent reputation
Going to split stake this bet

Selection

Small Stakes

£5 Win Bet BARNES DES MOTTES 5/2 [WON 4/1 SP]

£5 Place Bet ZAMBEZIR 4/5

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Best Wishes

Guy Ward

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