Mathematician 4369
Saturday March 4th
8 Previews
1 Account Bet
Account Bet
Split Stake Bet
Kelso 3.35
£5.00 Win Bet EMPIRE STEEL 6/1-11/2
£5.00 Win Bet LE MILOS 1/1-11/10
Today's Message
8 Previews
No headline or target races
Message lacks it's usual spine
Small fields dictated the pace
Optimistic and realistic today
It is a long way from a classic
But no reason it can't perform
Despite that
I am going for a staked bet
But not an ambitious one
Sunday looks more appealing
On first glance more balanced
And might be a bit more fertile
Endorsing just these 2 previews
The rest not considered for a bet
Newbury 2.45
£7.50 Win Bet LORD BADDESLEY 4/1-9/2
£2.50 Win Bet GEMIRANDE 3/1
Kelso 3.35
£5.00 Win Bet EMPIRE STEEL 6/1-11/2
£5.00 Win Bet LE MILOS 1/1-11/10
It came down to one factor
How many horses can beat these bets
Fewer can in the Kelso race
So that is the staked bet today
Kelso 3.35
£5.00 Win Bet EMPIRE STEEL 6/1-11/2
£5.00 Win Bet LE MILOS 1/1-11/10
Only 4 runners
Empire Steel becomes 2/1-9/4-5/2
Le Milos returns the full stakes
Only the 2 horses can beat us
One is a 13 year old teenager
The Shunter should be a danger
But I quite like the strategy here
Preview Selections
Kelso 1.50
L'Eau Du Sud 9/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5
Doncaster 2.05
£8.00 Win Bet Whizz Kid 3/1-100/30
£2.00 Win Bet Lihyan 9/2
Newbury 2.10
£6.00 Win Bet Jay Bee Why11/2-6/1
£3.00 Win Bet Dargiannini 5/2-11/4
£1.00 Win Bet Stimulating Song 16/1-18/1
Newbury 2.45
£7.50 Win Bet Lord Baddesley 4/1-9/2
£2.50 Win Bet Gemirande 3/1
Lingfield 3.06
£6.50 Win Bet Candle Of Hope 12/1-11/1
£3.50 Win Bet Iconic Moment 2/1
Newbury 3.25
Master Dancer 5/1
Each Way
Kelso 3.35
£5.00 Win Bet Empire Steel 6/1 -11/2
£5.00 Win Bet Le Milos 1/1-11/10
Lingfield 4.16
£8.00 Win Bet Bungle Bay 6/1
£2.00 Win Bet Fair And Square100/30-7/2
Yesterday's Summary
Thought it was a luckless start
As it often ends up at Lingfield
Fullforward ran a brilliant race
Looked the winner yards to go
Matched at 1.10 in running too
Then we saw him caught late
Both the witchcraft or sorcery
Was in play at Lingfield there
Circus Act also ran very well
Beaten only by a photo finish
Expected her to win that battle
With all her extra experience
Ravenscar won in a split stake
Needed that victory at the time
Only enough to return losses
From the opening 2 selections
Mr Muldoon flopped after that
Very miserable end to the day
He never really smelt fancied
We did limit a lot of damage
With the profit on the 3rd race
But overall it was low quality
On a day of small trappy fields
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Kelso 1.50
7/2 Mctigue, 13/2 Colonel Mustard, 7/1 Teddy Blue
7/1 Deere Mark, L'Eau Du Sud, 12/1 Cormier, 14/1 Benson
14/1 Collingham, 16/1 Clear White Light, 16/1 El Muchacho
16/1 Luttrell Lad, 20/1 Nayati, Tritonic, 33/1 Lebowski
33/1 Thereisnodoubt, 33/1Wajaaha.
Morebattle Hurdle
As mentioned in the week
Not a suitable statistics race
As 2 years ago this changed
It suddenly became a handicap
Rendering past trends useless
Several of these horses
Are chasing the 100k bonus
Obtained by winning this race
Going on to win at Cheltenham
MCTIGUE is one of those
Decided to take him on here
Youngest horse in the race
Has one of the higher weights
Has 68 days absence as well
His sire doesn't reassure me
His runners in Class 4 or more
Have a 1-43 record so far
His runners in Class 2 or more
Have yet to win in this country
All 16 to try and failed so far
In a field as big as this one
I'd much prefer an older horse
This also interests me
Go back to 2007
January to September
Kelso handicap hurdles
Any class
Any distance
Horses aged 4
Have a 0-41 record
None won in these months
MCTIGUE the 42nd to try
Go back to 1997
January to September
Kelso handicap hurdles
Any class
Any distance
Horses aged 4
Absent more than 15 days
Have a 0-45 record in them all
MCTIGUE also fails this angle
COLONEL MUSTARD an 8yo
Seems to be tipped everywhere
But he has topweight in this
Combined with 73 days off
And comes from a chase
Several did not offer enough
LUTTREL LAD with an absence
TRITONIC on his current form
Potential Savers
DEERE MARK 8/1
TEDDY BLUE 6/1-7/1
Staying with Dan Skelton
Selection
LEAU DU SUD 9/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5
Doncaster 2.05
2/1 Sergeant Wilson, 3/1 Mr Freedom, 7/2 Whizz Kid
6/1 Glory And Honour, 8/1 Lihyan, 12/1 Minella Plus
66/1 Very Excellent.
Handicap Hurdle 2m
WHIZZ KID rated 122
Faces a field of 0-116 rated horses
He looks the classiest horse in this
But does have to give weight away
To younger last time ot winners
MY FREEDOM is a 4 year old
The horses his age that have won
Were all very lightly raced horses
No 4yo won with over 4 hurdle runs
MY FREEDOM has had 8 of these
And if you look at his figures in them
There is no sign of any progression
Would not have him as favourite
SERGEANT WILSON is a 5yo
Lightly raced he has a chance
LIHYAN may be progressive too
WHIZZ KID may be hard to beat here
Been running in far better class races
Selection
£8.00 Win Bet WHIZZ KID 3/1-100/30
£2.00 Win Bet LIHYAN 9/2
Newbury 2.10
3/1 Dargiannini, 5/1 Jay Bee Why, 6/1 Pileon
13/2 Bold Plan, 7/1 Lock's Corner, Whatsupwithyou
10/1 Give Me A Moment, 14/1 Champagne City
20/1 Umndeni, 25/1 Stimulating Song
40/1 Poseidon.
Seniors Handicap Hurdle
Horses aged 8 and older
Interesting race
None of these are ideal
Past renewals show
The best profile is this
Horses aged 8
Under 15 hurdles
Running within 62 days
Carrying 11st 5lbs or less
With a good run last time
Most of these
Will fail the weight statistic
Horses with 11st 6lbs or more
Have a 0-20 record in this race
Comprises have to be made
There are only 6 past renewals
CHAMPAGNE CITY the eldest
Also has a nasty absence too
Hurdle runs
27 Champagne City
19 Bold Plan
19 Umndeni
19 Poseidon
16 Pileon
16 Whatsupwithyou
13 Lock's Corner
10 Stimulating Song
10 Jay Bee Why
9 Dargiannini
7 Give Me A Moment
Opposing the exposed hurdlers
The ones not showing much form
The long absence horses as well
The following look quite exposed
CHAMPAGNE CITY
BOLD PLAN
UMNDENI
POSEIDON
GIVE ME A MOMENT lighter raced
Has not raced in 162 days though
WHATSUPWITHYOU has a chance
But 16 hurdle runs is a little high
He also has 68 days off the track
And is not the ideal age for this
DARGIANNINI would be perfect
Were it now for 12st 1lbs weight
JAY BEE WHY is the right age
Unexposed and looks a player
SIMULATING SONG an 8yo
Would have qualified nicely
Had he not pulled up last time
But appeared to be an excuse
And he looks so well treated
PILEON is also shortlisted too
Selection
£6.00 Win Bet JAY BEE WHY 11/2-6/1
£3.00 Win Bet DARGIANNINI 5/2-11/4
£1.00 Win Bet SIMULATING SONG 16/1-18/1
Newbury 2.45
11/4 Paint The Dream, Zanza, 9/2 Gemirande
9/2 Lord Baddesley, 6/1 Sebastopol, 12/1 Espoir De Guye
16/1 The Big Bite.
Greatwood Gold Cup 2m 4f
Disappointing small field
There look to be two horses
Who have a class edge here
PAINT THE DREAM rated 158
ZANZA also rated 158
They face a 0-147 class field
Easy to see their positives
But do we want their type
Horses rated 150 or more
Have a 0-17 record in this race
PAINT THE DREAM fails this
ZANZA also fails this
This angle is interesting
Go back to 2007
Graded handicap chases
Any distance
Any time of year
With over 5 runners
Horses under 11 years old
More than 18 career starts
Absent more than 48 days
Carrying 11st 1lbs or more
Have a poor 1-77 record
The 1 winner Frodon (2022)
PAINT THE DREAM fails this
Could fail him on this angle
But he only just fails the stat
And there are just 7 runners
PAINT THE DREAM is opposed
Given the above 1-77 statistic
And just 1 run in 99 days now
Which won't help with his weight
ZANZA raised 15lbs for his win
Has a tough rating to overcome
Both these are 9 year olds too
Horses aged 9 or more are 2-98
One of those was a dead heat
THE BIG BITE is now a 10 year old
Has 67 days absence to overcome
16 of the 17 past winners
Ran within the last 42 days
ESPOIR DE GUYE fails this angle
Just 1 run this year 106 days ago
Recent winners of this
had the following runs that year
4 4 5 5 4 4 5 3 3 6 2 3 5 7 5 4
No horse has won with 1 run
ESPOIR DE GUYE fails this angle
SEBASTOPOL is a 9 year old
He has not raced in 99 days
Neither his age or his absence
Are in the ideal range for this
Younger unexposed types
Have done the best of these
Going with the lightweights
Selection
£7.50 Win Bet LORD BADDESLEY 4/1-9/2
£2.50 Win Bet GEMIRANDE 3/1
Lingfield 3.06
2/1 Shouldvebeenaring, 9/4 Iconic Moment, 3/1 Alpha Capture
8/1 Minnetonka, 11/1 Candle Of Hope, 16/1 New Definition
25/1 Tenjin.
Spring Cup
7f Listed race
Just following past angles
Most winners of this race
Won with long absences
Seasonal debutants best
The horses that won this
Having had recent races
Had under 5 career starts
And won last time out too
Horses running within 3 months
With more than 4 career starts
Have a 0-43 record in this race
The following horses all fail this
SHOULDVEBEENAIRING
NEW DEFINITION
TENJON
ALPHA CULTURE
Horses running within 3 months
Beaten last time out are 0-35
TENJON fails this 0-35 angle
ALPHA CULTURE does as well
Worth also mentioning
Every winner had under 8 runs
Those with more were 0-49
SHOULDVEBEENAIRING has 8 now
May not matter but not a match
MINNETONKA is a filly
Looks the stable second string
ICONIC MOMENT is the right type
May not be my favourite connections
But he is a positive on his profile
Not so sure about his sire statistics
Site trying to win a 7f listed race
On the back of months absence
I'd argue unproven breeding stats
CANDLE OF HOPE is a filly
See no reason why she can't win
And she is a much bigger price
Small Stakes
Selection
£6.50 Win Bet CANDLE OF HOPE 12/1-11/1
£3.50 Win Bet ICONIC MOMENT 2/1
Newbury 3.25
7/2 Artistic Choice, 4/1 Gipsy De Choisel, 5/1 Fruit N Nut
11/2 Head Law, 6/1 Master Dancer, 13/2 Onemorefortheroad
7/1 Black Poppy, 20/1 Glorious Zoff.
Handicap Hurdle 2m
Past renewals suggest
What we want is this
Male horse
Aged 5-6-7-8
2 + runs this season
Under 13 hurdle runs
Under 22 career runs
ARTISTIC CHOICE a 4yo
Younger than past winners
Just won a Novice handicap
This is a higher grade though
And he is the bottomweight
Not sure he has the class
His career Racing Post ratings
Show his best figure is 104
Yet he runs off 114 in this race
Might win but a bit concerned
BLACK POPPY is a 7yo
He has been well supported
Did win this race last year
But just 1 run in 146 days
That worries me when last time
He was beaten 33 lengths
Past renewals show
Horses under 8 years old
Running this season
Beaten over 18 lengths
Have a 0-64 record in this
BLACK POPPY fails this
HEAD LAW also fails this
GLORIOUS ZOFF is unsafe
Ideally you want a horse
With under 13 hurdle races
ONEMOREFORTHEROAD has 14
Bothers me he is short of recent runs
Just 1 run in the last 106 days
And was well beaten in that race
GIPSY DE CHOISEL is a 7yo
Top stable so must be respected
But just 1 run in 290 days now
Combined with a tough weight too
FRUIT N NUT lightly raced
Passed the statistical tests
MASTER DANCER is a 6yo
Pulled up on soft last time out
Needs to bounce back in this
But every chance he does that
Selection
MASTER DANCER 5/1
Each Way
Kelso 3.35
5/4 Le Milos, 7/4 The Shunter
6/1 Empire Steel, 7/1 Wishing And Hoping.
Listed Class chase 2m 7f
LE MILOS
Probably should be winning
Serious figure last time out
But that was 98 days ago now
His target is the Aintree National
And he is a very short price
THE SHUNTER
Going to take him on
Oldest horse with 118 days off
Just 1 run in 172 days now
Comes from a flat race as well
Never been over this far before
Not a strong negative
But the target to get beat
LE MILOS is a must saver
WISHING AND HOPING is out
Don't want to risk a 13 year old
One who was 50/1 last time out
EMPIRE STEEL first choice
Sandy Thomson at Kelso
He has a W W 2 track record
Excuses at Sandown last time
Selection
£5.00 Win Bet EMPIRE STEEL 6/1-11/2
£5.00 Win Bet LE MILOS 1/1-11/10
Lingfield 4.16
3/1 Toplight, 9/2 Fair And Square, 11/2 Top Exhibit
6/1 Storm Melody, 7/1 Battle Point, 8/1 Ellie Piper
9/1 Bungle Bay 25/1 Perfect Symphony.
5f Handicap
0-57 class race
TOP EXHIBIT is a 4 year old
Has as many as 17 career runs
Yet only one race in 119 days
Hardly described as lightly raced
My angles say don't rely on her
Against so many other horses
Who have multiple recent runs
PERFECT SYMPHONY is out
He is 4 years older than most
STORM MELODY is a 10 year old
Without a recent run opposing him
February and March
Similar 5f handicaps
Horses aged 10 or more
Absent over 4 weeks are 0-32
Running at Lingfield are 0-28
STORM MELODY fails both
ELLIE PIPER is a 5 year old mare
Too risky with 82 days absence
BATTLE POINT is a 4 year old
Modest figures looks moderate
Shortlist
BUNGLE BAY
TOPLIGHT
FAIR AND SQUARE
TOPLIGHT is drawn in stall 1
Not really a safe enough draw
Go back to 2003
Lingfield 5f races
Over 8 runners
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses aged 5 or more
Carrying 9st 4lbs or more
Have a modest 1-52 record
TOPLIGHT tries to better this
BUNGLE BAY has topweight
Not sure he's been showing enough
And apart from his 2yo debut run
He has no other runs over 5 furlongs
But it might yet be what he wants
His 7f races may have been too far
And last time out he had excuses
When drawn 14 of 14 at Southwell
A non runner helps his draw/chance
FAIR AND SQUARE is a positive
Splitting the two topweights
Selection
£8.00 Win Bet BUNGLE BAY 6/1
£2.00 Win Bet FAIR AND SQUARE 100/30-7/2
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