Mathematician 4371
Monday March 6th
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Today's Message
Normally take a break Monday's
After the heavy weekend schedule
Just can not push too hard today
So just having a lighter message
With messages coming all week
The final week before Cheltenham
Normally one of the slower weeks
Not worried about the festival yet
Best to arrive there fresh and late
The cards next week will change
Look so different than they do now
My focus will be on next few days
Weather patterns are now forming
Snow and rain might affect things
3 Previews
No Best Bet
Just a practice message
Freshen up for tomorrow
Need a non committal day
Preview Selections
Wetherby 2.40
Quick Sharpener 5/4
Win Bet
Leopardstown 2.50
£3.00 Each Way Knocknagappagh 14/1
£2.00 Each Way Clever Currency 22/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
Wetherby 3.15
£8.50 Win Bet Your Own Story 11/4
£1.50 Win Bet Silver In Disguise 11/2-5/1
Underneath The Message
Wetherby 2.40
Quick Sharpener 5/4
Win Bet
Novice hurdle
May just have one rival to beat
Felt he had far more positives
You could just have a win bet
Maybe consider this instead
Wetherby 2.40 - Quick Sharpener 5/4
Southwell 3.00 - Gitche Gumee 11/8
Each Way Double
Not previewed the Southwell race
Gitche Gumee is just my choice
In what is probably just a match
The each way double can work
To protect us from a rogue winner
Feel that is quite a sensible bet
All depends on personal choice
What strategy suits you the best
Leopardstown 2.50
£3.00 Each Way Knocknagappagh 14/1
£2.00 Each Way Clever Currency 22/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
Looks a good value fun bet
But hard to predict this one
Wetherby 3.15
£8.50 Win Bet Your Own Story 11/4
£1.50 Win Bet Silver In Disguise 11/2-5/1
Following some angles here
Small field just short of 4 miles
So much can go pear shaped
Hopeful but can not be sure
Yesterday's Summary
This ended up a disappointment
The main bet did at least survive
BUCKS DREAM placed in third
I was expecting more from him
But we had 4 places on our side
So most stakes were returned
Message started so ominously
One Cool Lady finished in fourth
My favourite bet and a bad start
And it never really got any better
Young Buster won as a saver bet
But little else to celebrate really
The staked bet most important
So pleased he was not a loser
But supporting races let us down
And given the overall performance
Not sure we deserved any more
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Wetherby 2.40
Evs Halligator, 2/1 Quick Sharpener, 10/1 Riggsby
12/1 Lethal Industry, 16/1 Letmetellusomethin, 20/1 Annaharvey Lad
Lincoln Burrows, Tara Brooch, 50/1 Classic Lady.
Novice Hurdle 2m
HALIGATOR won last time
But that was 317 days ago
Summer jumping victory
On good ground in a small field
There is a danger of overating him
He is a syndicated horse as well
Shares with still available in him
As recently as January this year
One angle against him
May not work out given so few can win
March
Novice Hurdles
Any distance
Since 2010
Horses of any age
Just 1 hurdle race
Absent more than 167 days
Have a 0-56 record in them
HALIGATOR fails this angle
QUICK SHARPENER is a 6yo
Winning pointer
Should be competitive on form
He ran a very respectable debut
Defeated at Ffos Las last time
But do think he bounced there
Won over this course/distance
Did it easily winning 7 lengths
Last time he failed to follow up
That was in a Carlisle handicap
Big field competitive race there
Not ideal for a lighter raced type
This looks a softer race for him
Selection
QUICK SHARPENER 5/4
Win Bet
Leopardstown 2.50
9/4 Firstman, 3/1 The King Of Prs, 8/1 Ballinlough Gale
12/1 Boola Boola, 12/1 Clever Currency, 12/1 Razdan
12/1 Single Edition, 14/1 Knocknagappagh, Ventnor,
16/1 Wild Dollar, 18/1 Vale Of Glory, 20/1 Ricky Langford
25/1 Lakomet Of Saints, 28/1 Grand Cru Chatho
40/1 It'sallabouteve, Monoxide.
Handicap Hurdle 2m
FIRSTMAN is a 6 year old
Not a stable I like to go near
One of my better golden rules
Never trust any of his runners
Seems to be badly overated
This horse might go and win
But he hardly looks a natural
They can not see him as one
35 runs on the flat
Yet just 4 hurdle runs
The last was July 2022
Hardly suggest a horse
With a promising career
It may be 4 hurdle races
Which is not many anyway
Running in a big field here
But in one of those races
He unseated at the second
so he's only had 3 hurdle runs
Similar races show
Horses aged 6
Over 25 career runs
Under 7 hurdle races
Have a 0-40 record
FIRSTMAN fails this angle
Going each way against him
THE KING OF PRS is a 5yo
Won last time and looks sexy
He may well be a 5yo officially
But he is 4 years 9 months old
And only had 6 career starts
Throw in a big weight as well
There are doubts about him
Finishing behind him last time
BALLINLOUGH GALE in 13th
Could make him a negative
Raced just once in 150 days
But two things I like about him
Now trained by Gordon Elliot
Had a huge upgrade in stable
Last time his stable debut
On his pedigree
His mother is out of a sprinter
It seems more than likely
His hurdle runs over 19f or more
His many flat runs over 2m plus
Were probably too far for him
He is a horse I should watch
Will be winning when he's fit
My angles say be wary today
February and March
Handicap Hurdles
Run over 2m 3f and shorter
Horses under 7 years old
Over 21 career starts
Just 1 run in 4 months
Absent over 25 days
Return a 0-47 record
BALLINLOUGH GALE fails this
CLEVER CURRENCY is a 6yo
Made him a negative last time
Nice well rounded 6yo profile
KNOCKNAGAPPAGH a mare
Could also be very dangerous
Unexposed yet experienced
Scoring good enough figures
Had her on recent staking plans
She appealed most at prices
Selection
£3.00 Each Way KNOCKNAGAPPAGH 12/1
£2.00 Each Way CLEVER CURRENCY 22/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
Wetherby 3.15
11/4 Your Own Story, 3/1 Geryville
7/2 Innisfree Lad 4/1 Gwencily Berbas, 7/1 Silver In Disguise
10/1 Don Herbager
Handicap Chase 3m 7f
Long distance
Only drawback a small field
And no race history to this
GWENCILY BERBAS a 12yo
Just won the Devon National
That was only 10 days ago
This comes very soon after it
Could not risk him at his age
DON HERBAGER is a 9yo
Pulled up in Bangor National
Limited appeal wants softer
GERYVILLE is a 7yo
March
Handicap Chases
Run over 3m 5f and more
Class 2-3-4 races
Since 2008
Horses aged 7
Won 10 of these races
They all had under 26 runs
They all had under 13 chases
GERYVILLE has had 32 runs
He has had 24 chase races
Worryingly exposed for a 7yo
And comes from a flat bred sire
Who's bred no winners past 3m
SILVER IN DISGUISE a 9yo
Looks a dangerous floater to me
But just 1 run in 94 days now
Beaten 25 lengths in that run
Not the safest or profiles
But can not rule him out
INNISFREE LAD likewise
Should be a threat to all
He won only 8 days ago
But he is 11 years old
Go back to 2007
Handicap Chases
3m 5f or more
Class 2-3-4
Any time of the year
Horses aged 10 or more
Over 12 chase runs
Running within 11 days
Have a modest 1-50 record
I'd have expected better
YOUR OWN STORY is a 7yo
Much better profile as lighter raced
He would be my first choice
Toss up between 2 for saver
Selection
£8.50 Win Bet YOUR OWN STORY 11/4
£1.50 Win Bet SILVER IN DISGUISE 11/2-5/1
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES
Target Races
Sunday - Naas Leinster National
Saturday -Sandown's Imperial Cup
Will be covering both early week
Not doing too much today
Coral Cup statistics are below
Ante Post Statistics
Wednesday 15th March
Cheltenham 2.50
Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle
5/1 Gaelic Warrior, 9/1 Run For Oscar, 10/1 Haut En Couleurs
10/1 Winter Fog, 10/1 Brandy Love, 12/1 Hms Seahorse
12/1 Three Card Brag, 12/1 American Mike, 14/1 First Street
14/1 Might I, 14/1 Fil Dor, 14/1 Imagine, 14/1 Firm Footings
14/1 Irish Hill, 16/1 Camprond, 16/1 Grey Dawning, 16/1 Pinkerton
16/1 Langer Dan, 16/1 Blue Sari, 16/1 Theatre Glory, 16/1 I Like To Move It
16/1 Saint Sam, 16/1 Landrake, 16/1 Fennor Cross, 16/1 Spanish Harlem
20/1 Green Glory, 20/1 Milkwood, 20/1 Ashdale Bob, 20/1 Brazil
20/1 Cadatharla, 20/1 I Am Maximus, Captain Conby, 20/1 San Salvador
20/1 Historique Reconce, 20/1 Ballyadam, 20/1 Hauturiere
20/1 No Ordinary Joe, 20/1 Iroko, 20/1 Red Risk, 20/1 Felix Desjy
20/1 Yorksea, 20/1 Good Risk At All, 20/1 Zanahiyr, 20/1 Scaramanga
20/1 Beacon Edge, 20/1 Coltor, 22/1 Au Fleuron, 25/1 Up For Parol
25/1 Drop The Anchor, 25/1 Walking On Air, 25/1 Saylavee
25/1 Captain Morgs, 25/1 Tax For Max, 25/1 Vina Ardanza
25/1 Wiseguy, 25/1 Outlaw Peter, 25/1 Icare Allen, 25/1 The Very Man
25/1 Metier, 25/1 Sa Fureur, 25/1 Seddon, 25/1 Summerville Boy
25/1 Hey Johnny, 25/1 Bold Endeavour, 25/1 Impulsive One, 25/1 Haxo
25/1 Call Me Lord, 25/1 Hector Javilex, 25/1 Harbour Lake, 25/1 Mill Green
33/1 Watch House Cross, 33/1 Music Drive, 33/1 Pentland Hills
33/1 Brewin'upastorm, 33/1 Commander Of Fleet, 33/1 Herbiers
33/1 Grand Roi, 33/1 Party Business, 33/1 Molly Ollys Wishes
33/1 Unanswered, 33/1 Pull Again Green, 33/1 Will Carver, 33/1 Glynn
33/1 Presentandcounting,
Recent winners
Had the following lifetime runs
16 19 10 12 10 12 10 3 10 11 29 20 6
Horses with over 19 runs
Last won this in 2012
They are 0-57 since 2012
They are 1-125 since 2005
7 of the last 10 winners
Had 10-11-12 career runs
Recent winners
Had the following hurdle runs
13 7 7 8 6 8 8 2 9 9 22 9 5 8 6
9 of the last 10 winners
Had 9 or fewer hurdle runs
Recent winners
Had the following absences
22 38 88 77 39 24 67
181 39 41 60 48 32
Horses laid out for this
With several weeks off do well
Horses running within 21 days
Have a 0-71 record since 2005
Recent winners
Had the following runs since August
6 7 2 1 1 4 3 2 4 4 3 4 3
Horses aged 10 or more
Have not won this in decades
Horses from 2m 6f or more
Have a 0-77 record since 2005
Horses from 2m 3f or shorter
Have a 6-242 record since 2000
Those winning last time were 1-43
Those with 11st 3lbs or more are 0-64
Those running within 4 weeks 0-79
Aged 8 or more are 0-62
Horses coming from a Chase
Have a 0-52 record since 2003
Horses from Non Handicap graded races
That were run over 2m 4f or less are 0-59
Horses from Novice or maiden hurdles
Have a 0-88 record since 2001
You want a horse
With as few handicap wins as possible
Ideally under 2 previous handicap wins
Horses from Listed or Graded races
Absent over 6 weeks are 0-120 since 2000
Horses well beaten last time
By over 10 lengths are 4-221
None had 11st 2lbs or more weight (0-55)
None ran within a month (0-40)
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