Mathematician 1746

Saturday November 30th

1 Bet Today
15 Previews

Today's Bet
Split Stake Bet

Towcester 1.15 - GLOWINGINTHEDARK 5/2
Wolverhampton 7.50 - POPPY BOND 5/2
* Win Bet on Both Horses
* Each Way Double on Both
* For every £10 you stake
* £3 on Each Horse
* £2 Each Way Double


M e s s a g e C o n t e n t

Newbury is the primary meeting today and we
get to know who is about to win the most open
Hennessy Gold Cup in years. A mixed card that
has both small and large fields. I didn't like the
Bangor card. Far too many small fields and no
decisive angles that would tempt me there. I'm
doing a bit at Wolverhampton tonight. A Token
Fairyhouse race. Some Towcester previews as
well and some Newcastle work. Tough as ever.
I've done a few races that I shouldn't covering
some of the more higher profile races. Overall
it feels like a Workmanlike message that is not
flashy and there are no spine tingling statistics
but it does a job and feels steady enough. Not
many handicap chases or hurdles today. This
wasn't deliberate I was just attracted by races
that were less complicated with better frames.

M e s s a g e H i g h l i g h t s
I have given my Hennessy Selections but don't
think we should be going with proper bets on
them given how wide open this years race is.
I don't think we will have a dynamic start and
it's not really that sort of message. Looks quite
a practical efficient danger avoiding message.

Wolverhampton 5.50
DANEGLOW 7/2 Each Way
I thought about going with an each way bet in
this 5 runner race but decided too much could
go wrong not least with non runners and prices.
It is not a good enough quality race to be sure
but like her price and think she is worth a bet.

Towcester 1.15 - GLOWINGINTHEDARK 5/2
Wolverhampton 7.50 - POPPY BOND 5/2
Win Bet on Both Horses
Each Way Double on Both

I have made the above my bet today. It's not a
sort of bet I would want for a Saturday but feel
like playing it safer today and I do have more
shorter priced selections this week as I've kept
away from the harder races. POPPY BOND has
a great chance. I think she will win and she is
the stronger of the two. I like the fact only one
has to win to make a profit and if both place it
won't be a disaster. GLOWINGINTHEDARK has
the best profile from three horses that should
dominate the race and looks a strong runner.
I've aimed at Safety today in a workmanlike
message as don't have anything extraordinary.


H e n n e s s y G o l d C u p

The market is telling us this is the most open
Hennessy in a long time and its clear nobody
has all the answers. I have a theory that this
years race could be won by a horse that ran
this season. I may be wrong but there is lots
of comfort knowing everyone else is unsure.
Shortlist - Lord Windermere- Merry King
Shortlist - Cloudy Too - Highland Lodge
Final Selection
MERRY KING 12/1 Win Bet

CLOUDY TOO 25/1 Win Bet



S i r e s and S y s t e m s

Yesterdays column worked out well with a
negative finishing unplaced. Today I think
I should go with a System rather than sire.
* November and December
* All aged Maiden races over 5f
* There are 35 races during these two months
* 34 of the 35 winners were 3 year olds
* Horses aged 4 or more were just 1-93
* The only winner was Co Dependant (2010)
* That race was dominated by older horses
* The 1-93 record includes losers at these prices
* 5/1 7/2 5/1 11/2 7/4 3/1 11/8 5/1 11/2
* 4/1 3/1 11/4 5/1 5/1 11/4 5/2 3/1 11/2
Wolverhampton 5.50
MY TIME 8/1 fails this System
BUSY BIMBO 4/1 fails this System

P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s

T o w c e s t e r 12.15
5/4 Born To Benefit, 7/2 Tara Muck, 10/1 Lady Charisma
10/1 Queen Olivia, 10/1 Seas Of Green, 12/1 Georgea
16/1 Etania, 20/1 Clara Peggotty, 20/1 Honour A Promise
33/1 Cantony.
This is a Mares Novice Hurdle. The main issue here
is whether to bet BORN TO BENEFIT or oppose her.
It is a difficult one as there are some dark ones that
are hard to read. TARA MUCK is one of those as she
ran out last time. GEORGEA is another I can match
to a winner so don't rule her out. I don't want to go
with GEORGEA as it may not be his trainers modus
operandi. Gary Moore sending horses into a Novice
hurdle from Bumpers has a 1-43 career record and
his 4yo's like GEORGEA are 0-17. LADY CHARISMA
is a 4yo who has just ran in a recent maiden hurdle.
Similar horses had a 1-28 record and as that winner
ran within 7 lengths of the winner last time out and
LADY CHARISMA was beaten 16 lengths I'm not sold
on her. The case for BORN TO BENEFIT is that she is
fitter than most and has more experience and could
be more streetwise. If I look at 7 year olds like her in
Mares Novice Hurdles and take those with 11 or more
previous hurdle runs like her I find a W 2 W 2 record.
Thats a smart record. Those with recent runs have a
W 2 2 record in that record and it includes the 2005
winner of this race Purple Patch. I like her positives.
My main concern is her Racing Post Ratings haven't
set a high standard and some others within reach of
that. The Split Stake bet does look the safest option.
* TARA MUCK 11/10 Place Bet
* BORN TO BENEFIT 11/10 Win Bet

For those that don't want or can't get that split stake
bet then I would suggest BORN TO BENEFIT to win.

N e w b u r y 12.20
11/8 Vicky De L´oasis, 3/1 Free Thinking
6/1 As I Am, 6/1 Rosie Probert
8/1 The Pirate´s Queen 16/1 Brijomi Queen.
This is a Listed Class Novice Hurdle for mares
and the statistical problem is only 5 races like
this in November and December. The 1 angle
that stands out is that all 5 winners had raced
between 4 and 7 times over hurdles before. I
think the issue is whether VICKY DE L'OASIS
is inconvenienced with just 2 hurdle starts as
She is also coming down in distance. Another
lightly raced horse is FREE THINKING having
just the one previous race. By contrast there
is a horse in AS I AM with 10 races. We have
to decide if that's too many and too exposed
or whether that experience gives her a good
edge. Statistically we can't answer that. The
race has a poor frame and no obvious answer.
Willie Mullins is so strong these days that his
VICKY DE L´OASIS can not be underestimated.
Perhaps the compromise choice is a split stake
as it gives the advantage of having two horses
representing two different types in this race.
Selection
VICKY DE L´OASIS 11/10 - Half Stakes to win
AS I AM 7/1 - Half Stakes to win


N e w b u r y 12.50
6/4 Black River, 5/2 Valdez, 9/2 Flaming Charmer
5/1 Un Bon P´tit Gars, 11/1 Earls Quarter.

* This is a Novice Handicap Chase over 7f
* BLACK RIVER is a first time out 4 year old
* Very hard to judge statistically
* I found winners like him with more hurdle runs
* I have to see him as a neutral.
* I think his chance depends on how good his rivals are
* VALDEZ is 6 and has just won a Novice Chase
* Only 2 horses had his profile with just 1 Chase starts
* These finished 1st and 6th so VALDEZ is a positive
* FLAMING CHARMER is also like a winner
* No strong opinion. Any of these could win
* BLACK RIVER as an unraced 4yo is risky
* He meets fitter older more experienced horses
* VALDEZ is my best guess in an open race
Selection
VALDEZ 2/1 +
Win Bet


N e w c a s t l e 1.05
10/11 Oscar Rock, 4/1 Ballyalton, 8/1 Blakemount
8/1 Five In A Row, 8/1 Kilbree Chief, 12/1 Caledonia
33/1 Bishops Gate, 50/1 Master Murphy.
* This is a 2m 5f Novice Hurdle
* Not many can win this
* BLAKEMOUNT won a novice hurdle 2 weeks ago
* The only market danger was second
* That horse failed our 0-587 statistic that day
* BLAKEMOUNT won a bad race and had little to beat
* BALLYALTON looks an each way bet on profile
* I wasn't happy with his profile though
* I looked at similar races in November-December
* Horses that came from 2m maiden hurdles
* There was a very modest 1-59 record with these types
* That sole winner was 6 like him but ran more recently
* He has McCoy and can't be ruled out
* Any temptation I had to bet him each way is gone
* FIVE IN A ROW - Chance. Not ideal but shortlistable.
* OSCAR ROCK is hard to oppose after his last run
* Dominant on Ratings and the main danger is unsafe
Selection
OSCAR ROCK 8/11
Win Bet


T o w c e s t e r 1.15
7/4 Silver Eagle, 5/2 Glowinginthedark
4/1 A Tail Of Intrigue, 12/1 Crookstown
12/1 Knockanrawley, 12/1 Lucky Cody
16/1 Speckled Door, 33/1 Garrahalish
50/1 Major Martin, 66/1 Beaujolais Bob.
* This is a 2m 5f Novice Hurdle
* KNOCKANRAWLEY is an unraced 5yo
* Stable second string a 7lbs claimer not for me
* SPECKLED DOOR may just lack the substance of some
* CROOKSTOWN is hard to fancy after his last run
* There look to be 3 horses dominating the market
* A TAIL OF INTRIGUE comes from a maiden hurdle
* He was beaten in that race within the last month
* A TAIL OF INTRIGUE has 1 hurdle start before
* I ran this profile and found a 0-27 record
* A TAIL OF INTRIGUE doesn't come out as well as I want
* SILVER EAGLE comes from a handicap hurdle
* That was over 3 miles last time out
* No similar race went to a horse with his profile
* Only 2 tried and they finished 2nd and 4th
* SILVER EAGLE has to be a neutral
* GLOWINGINTHEDARK has the best profile of the 3
* He is the most orthodox runner of them
* He is 5 with 1 hurdle and 1 bumper run
* Comes from a recent 2m 4f Novice Hurdle
* I found 2 winners with his profile
* The last to try with his profile won
* That was Kilbree Chief at Hexham 3 weeks ago

Selection
GLOWINGINTHEDARK 9/4
Win Bet

N e w b u r y 1.20
5/1 Handy Andy, 6/1 Carrigmorna King, 17/2 Opera Og
9/1 No Secrets, 10/1 Ruben Cotter, 10/1 The Druids Nephew
12/1 Valoroso, Mr Gardner, 14/1 Violin Davis
14/1 What A Warrior, Gus Macrae, 16/1 Hector´s Choice
20/1 Arthur´s Pass, 25/1 Kilcrea Asla, 25/1 Rendl Beach
25/1 Sir Du Bearn, 25/1 Solix, 25/1 Tatenen.
* This is a Handicap Chase around 2m 6f
* Too many runners and too difficult
* Seasonal debutants score badly in this race
* I feel there are too many with recent runs anyway
* I would oppose these seasonal debutants
* TATENEN - KILCREA ASLA - VALOROSO
* NO SECRETS is also a seasonal debutant
* Horses from 2m races were 0-24
* GUS MACRAE fails that and looks unsafe
* RENDL BEACH comes from a Novice Handicap
* He didn't do enough in that race as a 6yo
* The following didn't achieve enough last time
* ARTHUR´S PASS - VIOLIN DAVIS
* HECTOR´S CHOICE - SOLIX
* SIR DU BEARN isn't running well enough
* MR GARDNER didn't run well enough either
* THE DRUIDS NEPHEW has a chance in this
* I was uneasy about his lack of form in big fields
* RUBEN COTTER - I wanted a better last run
Shortlist
* You wont go far wrong if you mix two factors
* A recent run and a good last performance
* Most past winners of this race had a good last run
* Any more than 1 recent run is a bonus as well
* HANDY ANDY came out reasonably well
* Not a strong profile but he is shortlistable
* CARRIGMORNA KING has good recent runs
* OPERA OG should be kept on side
* Any selection here would be a guess
Selection
OPERA OG 8/1 Win Bet
CARRIGMORNA KING 8/1 Saver


Towcester 1.45
I think this 3m Handicap Hurdle is too hard. I can
see the case for KINGS APOLLO as an improver.
He was unlucky last time. I pass him statistically
as fine despite being a 4 year old. He is likeable
and I wouldn't mind him being the selection but
he is far too short now at 7/4 to interest me. This
spoils the race. Most likely winner but price gone.

N e w b u r y 1.50
6/1 Gibb River, 8/1 Batonnier, 8/1 Mischievous Milly
10/1 Don´t Be Late, Saphir Du Rheu, 10/1 The Bear Trap
12/1 Master Of The Game, 12/1 Punjabi, 12/1 Shotavodka
14/1 Citizenship, Imperial Leader, 14/1 Native Gallery
16/1 Aegean Dawn, Gassin Golf, 20/1 Notus De La Tour
20/1 Vendor, 25/1 Azure Fly.
* This is a Class 2 Handicap Hurdle over 2m 3f
* Too hard a race to spend much time on
* Only 1 past renewal and 27 similar races
* GIBB RIVER doesn't interest me from a 2m race
* Not with just 1 run this year and a 7 year old
* No 5 year old won a similar race with his profile
* He has topweight and just 1 run in 581 days
* MISCHIEVOUS MILLY is also from a recent 2m race
* She comes out badly as well
* BATONNIER has been off 672 days
* I am failing him absent twice as long as any winner
* Other long absent horses with weak profiles are these
* IMPERIAL LEADER - AEGEAN DAWN - VENDOR
* CITIZENSHIP - PUNJABI
* NOTUS DE LA TOUR looks too risky after last time
* DON´T BE LATE - His 109 day absence hurts him
* AZURE FLY is fit but needs a career best
* GASSIN GOLF is wrong from a Novice Hurdle
* MASTER OF THE GAME is not for me first time out
* Not when the stable jockey has rejected him
Shortlist
* SAPHIR DU RHEU - SHOTAVODKA
* THE BEAR TRAP - NATIVE GALLERY
* I have to guess here
* NATIVE GALLERY 16/1 Each Way to half stakes
* THE BEAR TRAP 10/1 Each Way to half stakes


N e w c a s t l e 2.05
8/11 My Tent Or Yours, 5/2 Melodic Rendezvous
8/1 Grumeti, 12/1 Cockney Sparrow, 16/1 Cotton Mill
16/1 Duke Of Navan, 200/1 Rock Relief
200/1 Stormy Weather.
The Fighting Fifth hurdle forces us to make a
decision about whether MY TENT OR YOURS
should be opposed each way with something
like the obvious bet MELODIC RENDEZVOUS
who has a fitness edge. He is probably about
5-7lbs inferior to the favourite and that should
be closer when you factor in the recent race.
Either betting him or betting the favourite has
the potential to make you feel stupid if wrong.
I do not want COCKNEY SPARROW a 4yo filly.
We had a 4yo winner last year but he was a
Male and the Triumph Hurdle winner and the
last 4yo to win this race before him was back
in 1985. COCKNEY SPARROW as a 4yo filly is
not what I'm looking for. With GRUMETI on a
seasonal debut MELODIC RENDEZVOUS looks
the best and only each way option in the race.
Whether he can beat MY TENT OR YOURS or
not is a different matter but it looks the bet.
Selection
MELODIC RENDEZVOUS 11/4 +
Each Way

N e w b u r y 2.25
10/11 At Fishers Cross, 7/2 Reve De Sivola
4/1 Celestial Halo, 6/1 Medinas, 25/1 Battle Group.
No statistical interest in the Long Distance Hurdle
as any stronger angles have been undermined by
repeat wins from Big Bucks and Inglis Drever. It's
hard to oppose AT FISHERS CROSS who has won
his last 6 hurdles including the Grade one's at the
Cheltenham and Aintree festivals. His main rivals
CELESTIAL HALO and REVE DE SIVOLA were 2nd
and 4th in the Stayers Hurdle so are no mugs. I'd
be more afraid of REVE DE SIVOLA as he has ran
this year and is younger but AT FISHERS CROSS
has answered every question asked of him and I
think he is one that's hard to bet or oppose here.
I'd rather be with AT FISHERS CROSS at 10/11 in
this race than My Tent Or Yours in the 2.05pm so
I reluctantly side with AT FISHERS CROSS 10/11.

F a i r y h o u s e 2.30
7/2 Captain Cee Bee, 5/1 Flat Out, 6/1 Lastoftheleaders
13/2 Pink Coat, 10/1 Kalann, 10/1 Maxim Gorky
12/1 Fosters Cross, 12/1 King William, 12/1 Mister Hotelier
12/1 Star Of Aragon, 12/1 Theatre Mill, 14/1 One Fine Day
16/1 Benash.
This is a Graded Hurdle over 2m. Just a couple of
interesting things about the race. I'm not intimate
enough with Irish horses to be confident here but
I have my eye on a couple of angles. I looked at
every Graded Handicap Hurdle that was run over
any distance and anytime of year. Horses aged 12
have a 1-93 record in all Graded handicaps which
raises a doubt about CAPTAIN CEE BEE the class
horse in the race. Initially I was looking forward
to seeing how he gets on conceding weight and
years to inferior horses. The 12 year old record is
a concern. The other interesting factor for me is
that in all Graded handicaps at any time of year
no horse has won absent as long as FLAT OUT a
horse who has not run in 1042 days. That would
be the longest absent winner. If we ignore these
two horses the race opens up a little. I could go
with LASTOFTHELEADERS a well handicapped
horse but he is 10 and has a long absence when
most past winners of this race had a recent race.
I will have one eye on the two horses failing my
statistics and the other on PINK COAT who might
be the right alternative. There is an element of
guesswork in Irish races and he would be mine.
Selection -
PINK COAT 6/1 Each Way


N e w b u r y 3.00
Hennessy Gold Cup Chase
(Handicap) (Grade 3) (4yo+) 3m2f110y
7/1 Lord Windermere, 15/2 Rocky Creek
8/1 Our Father, 9/1 Invictus, 10/1 Highland Lodge
12/1 Hadrian´s Approach, 12/1 Katenko, 12/1 Merry King
12/1 Prince De Beauchene, 16/1 Houblon Des Obeaux
16/1 Imperial Commander, 16/1 Super Duty
16/1 Triolo D´alene, 20/1 Cloudy Too, 25/1 Loch Ba
25/1 Same Difference, 25/1 Theatre Guide
33/1 Cape Tribulation, 33/1 Opening Batsman
33/1 Terminal, 66/1 Whodoyouthink.
* The Hennessy is a Handicap Chase over 3m2f110y
* I will start with the horses that don't make any appeal
* CAPE TRIBULATION - Hard to see him winning
* Not with Topweight pulling up a few weeks ago
* SAME DIFFERENCE also has a poor recent run
* WHODOYOUTHINK - Outclassed. Shouldn't be running
* LOCH BA would be the lowest rated winner in ages
* TERMINAL is not in the right place at the moment
* TRIOLO DALENE doesn't fit the profile of a typical 6yo
* He has twice as many Chase runs a 6yo needs
* THEATRE GUIDE doesn't look a safe type
* From a Graduation race and well beaten in that
* I think there are stamina doubts as well
* I looked at his sired record over 3m 2f or more
* Away from Cross Country races its 0-28 in Class 2 +
* It would be disappointing if he were to win
* OPENING BATSMAN ran too badly last time
* He is 7 and flopped at Ascot on his seasonal debut
* SO did the 2008 winner Madison Du Berlais
* That shows it is not impossible to overcome a bad run
* OPENING BATSMAN is a completely different type though
* Far lighter raced and I'd argue he is an unlikely winner
* SUPER DUTY is a 7yo seasonal debutant
* He lacks Grade 1 form something these all had
* No seasonal debutant has won without that
* No winner came from a Grade 2 Chase first time out
* SUPER DUTY does that and isn't a perfect match
* He is also sired by Shantou
* This horse has bred 3 winners over 3m 110 yards
* None by Shantou have won over further
* This race was established in 1957
* The last winner aged 11 or more was back in 1967
* IMPERIAL COMMANDER looks too old aged 12
* Only one 10 year old has won in the last 43 years
* Since 1988 horses aged 10 or more are 0-63 in this race
* PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE looks too old for me aged 10
* ROCKY CREEK is a 7yo seasonal debutant
* Plenty of positives with his profile
* One Flaw is he comes from a Grade 2 Chase
* No seasonal debutant won this race doing that
* ROCKY CREEK's Racing Post Ratings are modest too
* Most 7yo debutants have clocked much higher
* It raises the question whether he is good enough
* The following interested me as well
* His Sire Dr Massini has had hundreds of NH winners
* I looked at how many he had bred over 3m 1f or more
* There were 13 winners but all won in Class 3 or lower
* Dr Massini's offspring in Class 2 + over 3m 1f + is 0-25
* ROCKY CREEK is trying to become the first
* I'm not convinced he is good enough
* OUR FATHER is a 7 year old debutant
* There are some concerns about his profile
* No Seasonal debutant won without Grade 1 form
* OUR FATHER has only raced in Grade 3 before
* He only has 3 Chase starts as well
* Thats less than almost all recent winners had
* The only winner with 3 Chase runs had Grade 1 form
* Being well beaten last time is no statistical help
* His Racing Post Ratings are not impressive
* Certainly every 7yo first time out winner scored higher
* He also has to prove his stamina for this race
* OUR FATHER is sired by Shantou
* This horse has bred 3 winners over 3m 110 yards
* None by Shantou have won over further
* KATENKO is a 7yo seasonal debutant
* You can argue 13 Chase runs is a bit too many
* Most of those were in France though which is diffferent
* He's had more handicap chases that ideal
* The Handicapper has had a chance to rate him
* I find him a little on the exposed side
* He missed Cheltenham and Aintree
* That was due to emergency Colic Surgery
* It has left an absence longer than any past winner
* That Surgery puts me off him a bit
* Especially when exposed and high in the weights
* HOUBLON DES OBEAUUX looks a bit exposed
* He is 6 and has run this season
* 6 year old winners doing this had 4 6 4 7 chase runs
* HOUBLON DES OBEAUUX shouldn't be ruled out with 9
* He has a higher official rating than all 6yo winners
* This does look a weaker race than normal this year
* He has Grade 1 form and comes here in great form
* His last win proved a big field isn't beyond him
* I am far more positive than negative about him
* No 6yo has won with his weight since 1969
* I just feel he's handicapped out of it
* HADRIANS APPROACH is interesting
* Plenty of positives as a 6yo with a recent run
* He is a second season chaser with Grade 1 form
* Statistically there are some minor concerns
* Coming from a Graduation Chase isn't the norm
* His Racing Post Ratings aren't that impressive either
* As a lightly raced horse I can forgive that
* I see him as a potential winner if he jumps and stays
* His Jumping has given cause for concern at times
* It's his stamina that worries me as well
* His Sire has had just 1 winner over 3 miles
* Those running over longer than 3m are 0-18
* His Sire's runners haven't done well in quality races
* In Listed and Graded races they are just 1-55 so far
* His Profile is reasonably good overall
* My worries are his stamina, jumping and class
* Barry Geraghty has also rejected him
* INVICTUS is a 7yo seasonal debutant
* There were 5 of these and they all had Grade 1 form
* INVICTUS doesn't have any Grade 1 form
* No Seasonal debutant won without Grade 1 form
* The reason he doesn't is because he missed last season
* INVICTUS has been absent 651 days
* In the last 21 years the longest absence was 262 days
* INVICTUS has been absent twice as long
* That's his biggest flaw and it makes him neutral
* His Career best Racing Post Rating is 155
* Thats the joint lowest of all recent debutant winners
* What's Up Boys had that RPR winning in 2001
* Missing last year is why his Rating is only 155
* He hasn't had the chance to better in last year
* INVICTUS has these flaws in his profile
* He also has no form in a field as big as this
Shortlist
* HIGHLAND LODGE is 7 and run this season
* He passes most of my main angles in the race
* One issue is that he comes from a 3m 4f race
* There was a winner (Carruthers) from a 3m 3f race
* None from 3m 4f but not many tried
* I don't see a strong reason why he can't win
* He may want the ground softer though
* LORD WINDERMERE is a 7yo seasonal debutant
* Plenty of positives with a W 3 2 W 2 2 Chase record
* That includes a Grade 1 win in the RSA Chase
* It wasn't a vintage RSA chase but he could only win
* He has the best profile in the race
* 7yo debutant with Grade 1 form and few Chase starts
* Tough weight to carry but this has been done recently
* He looks the obvious Saver to me
* CLOUDY TOO is a little on the exposed side
* Having 6 Handicap Chase starts doesn't help either
* He is 7 and has run this season
* He comes from a 2m 4f Chase
* You have to go back to Chatam 1991 for a similar type
* He was 7 and came from a recent 2m 4f Chase
* That proves it can be done though
* It may well be that a recent runner wins this year
* CLOUDY TOO offers a lot and looks well handicapped
* His last run suggests a mark of 150 is within him
* CLOUDY TOO is one of the best outsiders
* It may just be too much for him but I've had some 30/1
* MERRY KING is a 6yo with a recent run
* Having 6 Chase starts is ideal for similar types
* Worries me he has no Grade 1-2 form
* The 2003 winner was a similar type though
* The main difference was he was a Handicap debutant
* MERRY KING has already had 5 handicap runs
* I wouldn't rule him out on that but its a worry
* Others have achieved more and have more scope
* That said he has some really good excuses
* His Cheltenham defeat was not unexpected
* No 6yo had won a Festival Handicap Chase like him
* Not with such a long break as he had that day
* He failed my Cheltenham generic stats that day
* He had an impossible task that day and I said do then
* He ran 2nd in a Heavy Ground Tommy Whittle
* That was a superb performance as he was just 5 then
* Thats not a race where you'd expect a 5yo to figure
* With a run this year I wouldn't underestimate him
* Ground / trip could bring any amount of improvement
Conclusion
LADY WINDERMERE has the classical RSA profile
a one shared by several past winners and it wont
be any surprise if he wins. Last years RSA chase
was not a vintage renewal. Racing Post Ratings
clearly show this was one of the weakest in years.
Any RSA Chase that was won by a horse that had
a Racing Post Rating of 155 or lower would seem
to me to be a weak renewal. A Rating in the low
to middle 160's would be a better class renewal.
He might not even have won had Boston Bob got
over the last. It was a small field RSA and after
some vintage ones we were due a poor renewal.
No doubt the RSA Chase at Cheltenham's Festival
is the best trial. When it looks a top class race as
it did when horses like Denman and Bobs Worth
won then you can expect it to provide Hennessy
winners. However when the RSA Chase is not so
good at least on Racing Post Ratings then there's
evidence that the Hennessy winner is more likely
to have a recent race. The 2011 RSA CHASE may
be a good example. The winner recorded a much
lower Racing Post Rating than usual and it looked
a below par race. That year nothing from the race
won the Hennessy and a horse that had a run did.

Because last years RSA Chase looks weaker than
normal I'm taking the view that this years race is
more likely to be won by a horse that has ran this
season. In the last 11 years there were 5 winners
that had raced that season so that's hardly a rare
thing to happen. I'd prefer a recent race this year
as last seasons RSA chase looked average. There
are no end of possible options. MERRY KING has
persuaded me the most and he is the selection
but I also intend to have a bit on CLOUDY TOO.
MERRY KING 12/1 Win Bet
CLOUDY TOO 25/1 Win Bet


N e w c a s t l e 3.15
5/4 Full Shift, 11/4 Clever Cookie, 5/1 Pierrers Bounty
13/2 Final Assault, 10/1 Pair Of Jacks, 20/1 Landecker
25/1 Dalstontosiloth, 33/1 Dunkirk´s First, 40/1 Teaatreids
66/1 Runswick Days.
This is a 2m Maiden Hurdle. Not much we can know
about unraced 4yo FULL SHIFT from some powerful
connections. There is no statistical problem with his
profile. He is Sexy but unproven. CLEVER COOKIE's
a possible each way bet against him with his profile.
* Horses aged 5
* Coming from a 2m Novice Hurdle
* Running within a Month
* Just 1 hurdle race before
* Beaten under 8 lengths last time out
* Horses with this profile were 3-9
* They finished W 5 3 W 3 6 2 2 W
* CLEVER COOKIE has this profile
That is an option much as you are relying on a small
stable against the best English stable. It's not my kind
of each way bet but there is a case for it at the prices.
This one is up to you. No Selection.

W o l v e r h a m p t o n 5.50
6/4 Twist And Twirl, 3/1 Daneglow
7/2 Busy Bimbo, 6/1 Robyn, 8/1 My Time.
This is an all aged maiden over 5f and the standard
here is very poor. It's hard to like BUSY BIMBO as a
4yo filly beaten in all 46 races she has ran in before.
ROBYN has gone 13 races without either winning or
finishing second yet. MY TIME is a 4yo with a break.
* November and December have 35 of these races
* 34 of the 35 winners were 3 year olds
* Horses aged 4 or more were just 1-93
* MY TIME is a 4yo and fails that.
* BUSY BIMBO is a 4yo and fails that

I feel TWIST AND TWIRL is the improver in the race
or at least the horse that has done least wrong but is
probably looking to go up to 6f now. There is a good
chance she'll get away with it. Last time at Kempton
TWIST AND TWIRL could not go the pace which was
set by DANEGLOW who will probably try and make
all today. It was only in the final furlong of the race
that TWIST AND TWIRL overtook DANEGLOW which
got him 3rd place with DANEGLOW 4th. I would see
TWIST AND TWIRL as a serious danger to my choice.

TWIST AND TWIRL has raced just once since January
She is very short of runs and could easily regress from
her last run. She could improve as well but my angles
are clear here. The 3yo fillies that win these maidens
are the ones that have had several recent runs and
she hasn't. DANEGLOW has in contrast and is a bigger
price and as long as 5 horses run looks the right bet.

Selection
DANEGLOW 7/2
Each Way bet but all 5 horses must run

W o l v e r h a m p t o n 7.50
15/8 Dubai Celebration, 15/8 Poppy Bond
10/1 Marina Ballerina, 10/1 Mosman, 12/1 Uncle Bernie
16/1 First Glance, 16/1 Kheskianto, 20/1 Elizabeth Coffee
20/1 Flying Applause, 20/1 Tukitinyasok
66/1 Gifted Heir, 66/1 Legal Pursuit.
* This is a 0-61 handicap over an extended 9f
* FIRST GLANCE - I would question his fitness
* LEGAL PURSUIT- GIFTED AIR shouldn't be fit
* KHESKIANTO won last time out
* That was 67 days ago and she is a Mare
* She has a poor profile for me
* FLYING APPLAUSE- I don't want an out of form 8yo
* UNCLE BERNIE - No negative but a 0-12 record
* There are more likely winners
* MARINA BALLERINA was nearly shortlisted
* Had she won before she would have been
* All older mares like her had won previously she hasn't
* With a 0-18 career record it pulls her profile down
* ELIZABETH COFFEE - Not sure she did enough last time
* TUKITINYASOK is hard to fancy
Shortlist
* MOSMAN is 3 and up in distance
* Complicated profile to sort out
* Winners like him had 4 4 6 8 13 18 runs
* MOSMAN with 10 runs isn't an ideal match
* Shortlistable overall but not perfect
* DUBAI CELEBRATION won well last time out
* He has a good chance and a good profile
* POPPY BOND is a 3yo filly winning last time
* Three fillies had her profile coming 1st 3rd 6th
* She's a positive and won with something in hand
* Benefitted from a recent upgrade in stable
* Her new better trainer now has her fit and in form
Selection
POPPY BOND 5/2

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Best Wishes

Guy Ward

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

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