Mathematician 1868
No Main Account bet
2 Optional Account bets
18 Previews
Two Flat meetings on turf and both race tonight so
a stranger shape to the Racing today. 18 previews
is probably too many but not all have selections in
them and overall it seems quite a healthy mixture
of Turf, Sand and National Hunt. There's a Sunday
message planned but it will a short one because I
need some extra time for Bank Holidays message.
I had 4 Potential Bets today but have reduced this
to two bets. The irony is the two rejected bets are
more likely to win than the two bets I've gone for.
One was rejected as a favourite pulled out which
shortened his price. The other was rejected as it
was too messy and needed a condition attached
about a non runner. All this is explained shortly.
I plan to restart on the Main Account soon but it
is often far easier to keep accounts unchanged
when results are good and as we are in decent
form I haven't wanted to meddle with this at all
as it's hard enough to retain confidence and keep
a good run going without changing anything.
Second Account (Optional)
2 Bets
Cork 5.40
BUSH PILOT 4/1
Each Way
Nottingham 6.45
MARAAYILL 7/1 Win Bet
CORNISH PATH 14/1 Saver Bet
T o d a y 's B e t s S u m m a r i s e d
I have cancelled one of my strongest bets today.
That was ZURIGHA in the 2.55 at Kempton. I like
her and She's more than strong enough for a bet
but the favourite in the race has pulled out which
has now reduced her price from 9/4 to 5/4 so I'm
less enthusiastic to go with a shorter priced bet.
I was going to add an each way double as well.
Newton Abbot 2.10 COOL GEORGE 9/4
Nottingham 4.45 - ZERFAAL 5/4
I like this bet but it would mean a conditional bet
as all 8 horses in the 2.10pm must run or I would
cancel. That complicates it a bit and I decided to
keep it off the list of official bets as this is messy.
Cork 5.40
BUSH PILOT 4/1
Each Way
I think he has the numbers to win and will be a
better horse over this course and distance too.
Nottingham 6.45
MARAAYILL 7/1 Win Bet
CORNISH PATH 14/1 Saver Bet
This one is risky. My angles tell me that despite both
well supported the 1st and 2nd favourites might have
flaws in their profile. I wanted to risk MARAAYILL as
he was a highly regarded expensive horse last year
that suffered from breathing issues and first time out
could be the time to catch him. If he can put all his
problems behind him a mark of 76 is generous and
Interesting to note he is still in the 2000 Guineas. It
makes sense to save as I'd be annoyed if a bet was
floored by Cornish Path when a saver is so cheap.
Y e s t e r d a y 's S u m m a r y
With no message on Good Friday it leaves Thursday
to review. As I feared and suspected I think I viewed
JOHANN STRAUSS with some rose tinted spectacles
and his disappointing performance as our sole bet is
a lesson. We did have a 20/1 winner the day before
in Upham Atom so a perfect time to mess up a race
and given results recently it hardly matters much at
all. The Optional Account has started brilliantly after
a few weeks of the season as these results do testify.
* Number of Bets 35
* Number of Winners 11
* Number of Placed 8
* Number of Losers 16
* Profit to a #1 Stake at available prices +#19.36
* Profit to a #1 Stake at starting Price + #16.97
P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S
Haydock 2.05
It was touch and go whether I previewed a 3m handicap
with no history like this. I decided not to. Pricewise have
gone with Firebird Flyer and OUR MICK and I don't have
a problem with those choices. I thought OUR MICK offers
a lot. He is a very easy case to make and a token choice.
N e w t o n A b b o t 2.10
10/11 Howlongisafoot, 5/2 Cool George, 3/1 Rody
25/1 Wolfe Mountain, 33/1 Kayf Charmer, 33/1 Wansbeck
40/1 Brogeen Boy, Mrs Winchester, 66/1 Lord Carrigross.
The obvious temptation in this 2m 3f Novice Hurdle is the
each way burglary bet on COOL GEORGE assuming you
don't mind betting a smaller stable against Paul Nicholls.
I concede HOWLONGISAFOOT deserves to be a favourite
but he is not without some difficulty statistically.
The betting (33/1 bar 3) suggests RODY 6/1 each way has
every right to be considered. He is a 9 year old. I looked
at all similar Novice Hurdles between 2m 2f and 2m 4f in
April. I found 16 winners aged 8 or more but none of the
16 had more than 5 Chase runs and he has 11 so wasn't
a perfect fit. Still considered him but not like a winner.
I like that COOL GEORGE is now improving his numbers
and I do not think he stayed 2m 4f at Chepstow last time
out given bad ground and his Sire's record. I'd imagine
a sharper track on better ground over shorter must help
and he's got a decent each way chance of beating this
favourite. Around 9/4 I'll put him in an each way double
with the condition All 8 must run in the 2.10pm or no Bet.
Selection
Newton Abbot 2.10 COOL GEORGE 5/2
Nottingham 4.45 - ZERFAAL 5/4
Each Way Double
K e m p t o n 2.20
4/1 Ayaar, 5/1 Glen Moss, 5/1 Upavon, 7/1 Bluegrass Blues
7/1 Chilworth Icon, 7/1 Georgian Bay, 8/1 Rocksilla
10/1 Bravo Echo, 10/1 Piscean.
This is a Class2 handicap over 7f and a pet hate of mine
is Class 2 handicaps with small fields and these statistics
get corrupted with similar big field races. I can argue we
have 22 similar 7f races in April and if we look for horses
that come from 6f races they had a poor 2-73 record. The
record of 4 year olds in that is 0-31 and thats why I argue
that Rocksilla and Upavon have weak profiles. I'd oppose
Bluegrass Blues as well after his last run. If we look at all
22 similar races 11 winners ran within 4 weeks and 11 ran
first time out. None raced between 4 weeks and 4 months
ago and that is something Georgian Bay faces with a 52
day absence. I'd oppose all the above mentioned horses.
* AYAAR is a possible but a bit exposed for a 4yo debutant
* BRAVO ECHO - Not keen he steps up 2 grades in class today
Shortlist
* PISCEAN - I can't rule him out even as a 9yo
* GLEN MOSS - Profile fine and 2nd in last years race
* CHILWORTH ICON - The Small field is just what he wants
Selection
CHILWORTH ICON 8/1 Each Way
GLEN MOSS 4/1 Saver Bet
K e m p t o n 2.55
11/8 Zurigha, 9/2 Auction
11/2 Ribbons, 8/1 Magic Of Reality, 12/1 Senafe
25/1 Broadway Duchess, 40/1 Compton Bird.
* This is a fillies Listed race over 8f.
* There are 10 past renewals and no similar races elsewhere.
* Seasonal debutants score very well in this race
* No past winners came from maidens or handicaps
* All past winners came from Listed or Group races
* MAGIC OF REALITY fails this from a handicap
* Past winners of this race had 19 10 11 10 8 15 15 14 4 8 runs
* There was a winner with 4 runs in 2005 but most had more runs
* RIBBONS has 5 runs which is a bit short of ideal
* He only comes out as the joint 4th best at the weights
* His trainer hasn't had a first time out winner yet this year
* AUCTION could pop up but I prefer others
* ZURIGHA is Top Rated
* We know horses with 8-19 career starts are best
* ZURIGHA has 7 runs which I can accept
* I would give her a serious chance today
* This horse is Best fresh after an absence as She has bled before
* She wants fast ground or polytrack when having an absence
* ZURIGHA gets the conditions she may need to show her best
Selection
ZURIGHA 5/4
Win Bet
K e m p t o n 3.30
4/1 Sea Shanty, 9/2 Frasers Hill, 6/1 Big Whiskey
6/1 George Cinq, 7/1 Loving Spirit, 8/1 Tigers Tale
10/1 Life And Times, 10/1 Loyalty, 12/1 Santefisio
20/1 Cavaleiro, 25/1 Circumvent.
Decided this Class 2 handicap was too difficult. There are
86 of these races in March and April on Sand and Grass. I
looked for winners from maidens like FRASERS HILL. Not
one winner came from them. I'm avoiding FRASERS HILL.
I looked at horses beaten more than 10 lengths in the past
two weeks. None managed it with fewer than 20 previous
runs and as LIFE AND TIMES fails that I'd avoid him a well.
* Two to Avoid are Frasers Hill and Life And Times
* No Selection
H a y d o c k 3.50
9/4 Bennys Well, 11/4 Fentara, 4/1 Red Rocco
5/1 Woodford County, 8/1 Blenheim Brook, 12/1 Kilcrea Asla
* This is a handicap chase over 3m 4f
* My interest here is whether BENNYS WELL stays 3m 4f
* All year I have opposed horses by Beneficial over long distances
* This sire has a 2-73 record with his runners over 3m 4f +
* One was a Hunter Chaser (Salsify) which shouldn't count
* He has bred a Midlands Grand National winner
* That aside time and time again they often fail for stamina
* Haydock may be good ground but it's a gruelling track
* BENNYS WELL has won on heavy over 3m 3f at Sedgefield
* It may seem unreasonable to question him over 3m 4f
* If you look at the Sedgefield 27f and Haydock 28f course records
* It takes about 55 seconds more to run this Haydock distance
* That's a long way and not convinced he will get home
* He hardly has much backclass anyway
* BLENHEIM BROOK's form is tied up with him
* Not convinced he has found form or fitness this year
* KILCREA ASLA - Don't want a 13yo going up from 2m 4f to 3m 4f
* WOODFORD COUNTY only has 3 Chase runs
* I'd prefer more on this track
Shortlist
* FENTARA is a neutral statistically especially as a mare
* I think she has a good solid chance
* RED ROCCO has plenty of positives
* He was a good 2nd at Haydock over 3m 4f on his seasonal debut
* I made him a negative in the Welsh National as a 6 year old
* His next run was easy to explain coming too soon after that race
* He would have placed in a Graded race here next time out
* Last time he had a very inexperienced jockey on board
Selection
RED ROCCO 7/2 Win Bet
FENTARA 3/1 Saver Bet
N e w t o n A b b o t 4.25
3/1 Northern Meeting, 4/1 Enchanting Smile, 5/1 Rainbow Beauty
6/1 Youngstar, 8/1 Present Trend, 10/1 Reillys Daughter, 14/1 Dance
16/1 Maxford Lady, 20/1 According To Sarah, 20/1 Marishi Ten
20/1 Morgana, 33/1 Ice Nelly, 33/1 Miss Siskin, 50/1 Colin4s Nightmare
50/1 Miss Fortywinks, 50/1 My Space.
* This is a Mares Maiden Hurdle over 2m 21f
* April has 17 of these races
* 16 of the 17 winners were aged 5-6-7
* Horses aged 4 had a disappointing 1-47 record
* NORTHERN MEETING is 4 and has just 1 run
* The only 4yo that won also had just 1 run too
* She (Fairyinthewind) came from a top class stable
* My angles say if you can find a better older horse take it
* That 1-47 record would put me off her a little bit
* RAINBOW BEAUTY is also a 4yo
* She has never run over hurdles before either
* I looked at hurdling debutants and those aged 4 and 5 are 0-41
* RAINBOW BEAUTY is not for me
* Horses in these 17 races from Bumpers are 0-35
* YOUNGSTAR fails that and I am taking her on too
* Then you realise nothing much is safe against the negatives
* ACCORDING TO SARAH really hasn't done enough
Possibles
* PRESENT TREND - done less wrong than most but needs improvement
* REILLYS DAUGHTER - hard to read but could pop up
* Chances are she won't but could have gone too hard last time
* ENCHANTING SMILE - Shaky profile but at least a good recent run
Selection
ENCHANTING SMILE 5/1
Each Way
N o t t i n g h a m 4.45
This maiden race for 3 year olds is probably best left to
John Gosden's ZERFAAL. At least all the circumstantial
evidence points to him. Personally without having full
knowledge about the opposition I would rather go with
ZERFAAL in an each way double as it feels much safer.
B a t h 4.55
9/4 Noble Protector, 5/2 Sinaadi, 5/1 Coincidently
5/1 Play Street, 7/1 Avidly, 10/1 Wishformore.
* This is a fillies handicap around 10f
* Sorrowful little race with a small field
* 21 similar races and no really strong angles
* Horses beaten in maidens last time were 0-11
* AVIDLY fails this and looks weak
* COINCIDENTLY doesn't impress me either
* Not well beaten last time over a mile
* WISHFORMORE goes up 2 grades and may lack the class
* I think one of three will win
* NOBLE PROTECTOR - SINAADI - PLAY STREET
* SINAADI - I hate Brian Meehan at the best of times
* I have zero tolerance for his short priced horses
* NOBLE PROTECTOR looks just about the safest choice
N o t t i n g h a m 5.15
This is a 2yo maiden and I would sit this one out. There
is a big runner in BURTONWOOD who wasn't cheap and
is sure to go close but he is odds on and that looks short
enough. CELESTIAL VISION was fancied in the market
at an early stage yesterday and given his trainer It may
be worth considering he could be the yards Lily Agnes
runner at Chester next month. He could be useful and
a big threat. DR NO was also popular and from a strong
stable could easily be useful. I could not take odds on
about BURTONWOOD. May be a race for the split stake
or a place bet. Perhaps CELESTIAL VISION to place.
B a t h 5.25
100/30 Dubawi Coast, 7/2 Kuala Queen
4/1 Broadway Ranger, 5/1 Ashkari, 10/1 Groundworker, 16/1 Zafraaj
50/1 Border Guard, 66/1 Go Charlie, 66/1 Lucky Clover.
* This is a 3yo + maiden over 5f161y
* Bath have had 20 Maiden races between 5f-6f in April -May- June
* I looked at unraced horses in these 20 races and All 27 lost
* DUBAWI COAST is an unraced filly. I'd try and find a safer bet
* BORDER GUARD is also unraced and rejected
* BROADWAY RANGER - disappointing last year but the best stable
* Not difficult to see him playing a part if he is fit and fancied
* He stinks in the market though and may not be ready
* GROUNDWORKER comes from a stable I like to avoid
* ASHKARI - No reason why he can't win
* KUALA QUEEN is top on Racing Post Ratings from small stable
Selection
KUALA QUEEN 4/1
Each Way
C o r k 5.40
11/8 Supposing, 7/2 The Islander, 4/1 Bush Pilot
12/1 Robin4s Choice, 14/1 Brog Deas Nua, 14/1 Dark Alliance
14/1 Port Merrion, The Scourge, 25/1 Derulo, Dresden Green
33/1 Daredevil Day, 33/1 Funny How, 40/1 Straightandnarrow
100/1 The Glimmerman.
* This is a 3yo maiden over 7f
* Unfamiliar types but there are rarely few that can win these races
* SUPPOSING is one of those but hard to read
* She is a filly with a break and weak in the market
* Wouldn't know much about her but I prefer one better
* THE SCOURGE was beaten 17 lengths over 8f last time
* I looked at horses beaten 10 + lengths over 8f last time
* When running within 6 weeks they were just 1-66
* Male horses like THE SCOURGE doing this were 0-43
* It is not a good enough profile to tempt me
Shortlist
THE ISLANDER
BUSH PILOT
* THE ISLANDER and BUSH PILOT ran in the same race 9 days ago
* BUSH PILOT finished just ahead of THE ISLANDER
* THE ISLANDER could be a potential each way bet
* The best stable and best draw and lots to like
* BUSH PILOT also has a sound chance
* By Bushranger 7f on heavy ground may not have suited last time
* I don't think he got the trip in the ground last time
* He has 4 consistent 78 75 74 77 Racing Post Ratings
* Any of those if repeated could win this
Selection
BUSH PILOT 4/1
Each Way
N o t t i n g h a m 5.45
9/2 Fratellino, 5/1 Danzoe, 7/1 Give Us A Belle
8/1 Dawn Catcher, 8/1 Two Turtle Doves, 10/1 Captain Scooby
12/1 China Excels, 12/1 Lucky Dan, 14/1 Taurus Twins
16/1 Avonmore Star, 16/1 Dancing Maite, 16/1 My Time
20/1 Errigal Lad, 20/1 Incomparable, 25/1 Sophie4s Beau.
* This is a 5f handicap for 0-65 rated horses
* 34 Nottingham 5f handicaps since 2009 here with 13 + runners
* Horses drawn 1 are 0-33
* Horses drawn 1-2-3 are just 2-95
* The recent winning stalls are these
* 15 3 12 17 13 2 11 13 8 6 9 9 5 6 6 8 11 12 15 17 14 12 14 8 14 8 13
The draw stats raise a doubt about DAWN CATCHER drawn one
and also a 4yo filly absent more than 6 weeks and it might be
asking too much of her. CAPTAIN SCOOBY is badly drawn here
as well and although throw in his recent form is average and if
he repeats any of his last 5 Racing Post Ratings he is unlikely
to win. There are a number of horses that are not fit or haven't
been running well enough or need abnormal improvement for
them to win. Horses like Sophie's Beau, Taurus Twins, My Time
Incomparable and Errigal Lad. DANCING MAITE is 9 and absent
88 days and as a horse who has never won over 5f before I am
against him. AVONMORE STAR has also never won at 5f and his
recent form leaves me cold. TWO TURTLE DOVES is 8 and also
a mare and she hasn't been shaping like a winner. All her wins
come on fields of 12 or smaller. In fields of 13 or more she has
a disappointing 0-22 record and she seems to hit form later on
in the season.
* GIVE US A BELLE is respected with a recent run
* He also likes faster ground as well
* My problem is 12 turf runs and none of these are good enough
* His career best Racing Post rating on turf is only 59
* That is probably not going to be enough
* Without any backclass I think there are faster horses
* CHINA EXCELS - Horses aged 7 or more are 3-76
* Average profile not sure he did enough last time
* LUCKY DAN is down in class and has a chance here
* He likes the ground fast and the company weak
* He is a horse with a great record running very recently
* The 37 day absence is longer than I would have liked
* I'd have liked a smaller field too but he has a chance
* DANZOE has 2 runs this year and a good draw
* His best form would be good enough so he is respected
* FRATELLINO would win easily on 2012 form
* He is handicapped to win but on a losing run of 30
* That makes him risky but he is back at his best distance
* He would win this on his last run but that was on Sand
* FRATELLINO is a better horse on sand
* I'd want him on side as he does have some turf form
* Look at his last 3 races on Good or better on turf over 5f
* They were all in 3 Grades higher than this race
* Obviously 56 days absence makes it harder for him
* I would want him on side though as he has the class
Selection
FRATELLINO
When I did this race it was before any prices or odds were
available and at the time I was thinking FRATELLINO was
well worth a bet at a fair price despite his miserable run
of 30 consecutive losers. I now know he is only 9/4 and
that has taken a lot of the shine off any bet on him. I like
his chance and have him as most likely winner but 9/4 is
not an enticing price given his record. I would still ensure
I couldn't lose money if he won so he should be at least a
saver bet much as I do think he is the likely winner. I will
try for a better price selection. LUCKY DAN is ambitious a
bit too risky but 16/1 and more is at least a bigger price.
LUCKY DAN 16/1 Win Bet
FRATELLINO 9/4 Saver Bet
N o t t i n g h a m 6.15
4/1 Searchlight, 9/2 Skye4s The Limit, 11/2 Walta
7/1 Shilla, 8/1 Razin4 Hell, 9/1 Captain Whoosh
10/1 Diamondsinthesky 10/1 Lexington Rose
12/1 Danfazi, 20/1 Tinsill.
* This is a 3yo handicap over 7f
* April have 78 similar races
* I looked at horses from 3yo maidens
* Those that came from 5f maidens were only 1-30
* That winner was a filly with a 7 day absence
* Horses that came from any maidens were 3-70
* None of these won absent more than 4 weeks
* SEARCHLIGHT looks unsafe from a 5f maiden absent 92 days
* WALTA is also unsafe from a 5f maiden
* RAZIN4 HELL - I can take or leave him profile
* I just don't want to bet a horse drawn one here
* DANFAZI and TINSILL don't offer enough
* DIAMONDSINTHESKY's lack of backclass bothers me
* SHILLA could win but no surprise if she needs the run
* CAPTAIN WHOOSH could also need the run
* LEXINGTON ROSE has an acceptable profile
* SKYE4S THE LIMIT - Nothing wrong with his profile
* With a recent run he could well be the bet here
* I would have liked 4/1 each way better than 3/1 win
* If you want to bet him at 3/1 each way that's your choice
Selection
SKYE4S THE LIMIT 3/1
Win Bet
B a t h 6.30
11/4 Simply Magic, 7/2 Jersey Bull, 9/2 Come Uppence
7/1 Stinky Socks, 9/1 Ahlan Emarati, 10/1 May One, 14/1 As A Dream
16/1 Majenski, 20/1 Chester Deal, 33/1 Clever Love, 33/1 Multi Quest
33/1 Union Rose, 50/1 Amber Crystal, 50/1 Sarah Catherine
66/1 Lady Bling, 66/1 Lady Charlie, 66/1 Seamoor Secret.
* This is a 2yo maiden over 5f
* Too many runners and limited to what I can do here
* The 3 past renewals went to horses drawn 5 8 8
* These are ideal draws and 2 of these were unraced
* If I look at Draw Stats here at 5f in races with 13 + runners
* These tell me to be wary of horses drawn 1-2
* JERSEY BULL and STINKY SOCKS have their Stalls
* Higher numbers do win but Stalls 15-16-17 don't score well
* COME UPPENCE has the highest Racing Post Rating
* Not overkeen on his draw in Stall 3 and he was 50/1 on his debut
* SIMPLY MAGIC has to be considered from Hannons
* He has twice won similar races with unraced fillies at Bath
* Maybe SIMPLY MAGIC is the one.
* I will make her the selection but its a guess
N o t t i n g h a m 6.45
7/2 Meteoroid, 5/1 Gilbey4s Mate, 11/2 Secret Archive
7/1 Maraayill, 9/1 Excellent Royale, 10/1 Canova, 10/1 Emef Diamond
10/1 Raise Your Gaze, 11/1 Intermath, 14/1 Cornish Path, 20/1 Donny Rover.
* This is a 3yo handicap over a Mile
* There are 116 of these races in April
* I thought this was probably two open
* There were a few things that interested me
* The First is the profiles of the market leaders
* GILBEY4S MATE comes from a 2yo maiden over 7f
* Horses from 2yo maidens over 7f or shorter were 12-225
* 11 of those 12 winners had 1-2-3 career runs
* Those with 4 or more were just 1-52
* That winner didn't win last time out
* Those with 4 runs like him were 0-25
* I'd be a fool to say he couldn't win from John Gosden
* GILBEY4S MATE's profile is not like any winner though
* METEOROID also has a shaky profile
* I looked at horses from 7f Nurserys like him
* Those with under 5 career starts were only 2-60
* Those beaten last time like him were only 1-57
* METEOROID's profile is hardly encouraging
My angles suggest we should be opposing these two horses
despite the being 1st and 2nd favourites. Thats when clarity
disappears though as finding the right alternative isn't easy.
* DONNY ROVER - 1st run for Micheal Appleby could be significant
* Not convinced I want to risk a horse drawn one though
* He is a seasonal debutant with 16 career starts as well
* No seasonal debutant won with more than 10 runs (0-11)
* DONNY ROVER doesn't really come out well enough
* EXCELLENT ROYALE - Not keen on 94 days absence
* RAISE YOUR GAZE - The worry is whether he needs the run
* INTERMATH - Concern is something improving past him
* CANOVA - Profile fine but will his trainer have him ready ?
* SECRET ARCHIVE has a decent enough profile
* Would be a concern he is drifting in the market
* CORNISH PATH - Market support and profile acceptable
* MARAAYILL is very interesting but very risky
* Cost a fortune last year and very highly regarded
* He had a breathing problem though
* If that has been sorted he could blow these away
* Equally the chance he could flop is just as obvious
* At the prices I am taking a chance of these two
Selection
MARAAYILL 7/1 Win Bet
CORNISH PATH 14/1 Saver Bet
B a t h 7.00
3/1 Ladies Are Forever, 11/2 March, 11/2 Riskit Fora Biskit
6/1 Hurryupharriet, 14/1 Caledonia Lady 14/1 Exceptionelle
Reroute, 16/1 Swan Song, 20/1 Excel4s Beauty
25/1 Jillnextdoor, 25/1 Kune Kune, 25/1 Lilbourne Lass
33/1 Cincinnati Kit, 33/1 Gladiatrix, 33/1 Three D Alexander.
* This is a Listed race for fillies over 5f
* Bath has had 14 renewals of this race
* Bath has 39 races over 5f since 2007 with 12 + runners
* Horses drawn 15-16-17 are 0-44 in these races
* The very highest draws have not produced a winner
* GLADIATRIX is drawn badly
* Horses aged 3 have a 3-49 record in this race
* All 3 winners aged 3 had Group Class form
* THREE D ALEXANDER lacks that and no 3yo won from 6f
* None came from a 3yo handicap either
* LILBOURNE LASS is 3 and lacks Group form
* None like her came from a 7f race
* CINCINNATI KIT - Very poorly weighted today
* KUNE KUNE last ran at a Mile and this 5f may be too short
* REROUTE is a lightly raced 3yo
* She has Group form and I don't mind 4 runs
* No 3yo has won coming down in trip though
* All 21 lost and there look safer options
* HURRYUPHARRIET is 3 and has no Group form
* The 3yo winners of this did have that
* She's improving but fast ground may not be ideal
* SWAN SONG was 6th in this race last year
* The 3 times she tasted pattern class she was found out
* She hasn't yet convinced in a big field either
* JILLNEXTDOOR is an exposed 4 year old which isn't ideal
* The 2009 winner was an exposed 4yo so I shouldn't say that
* She came from a better class of race than JILLNEXTDOOR
* Worries me she is 0-8 in Listed and Group races
* She couldn't place in this last year when unexposed and fit
* EXCEPTIONELLE is a 4yo debutant
* There were 4 winning 4 year olds first time out
* They all had listed or group class form before
* EXCEPTIONELLE lacks that and only comes from a Class 3 race
* CALEDONIA LADY - A good 3rd in this last year when favourite
* The ground will be quicker this year and it may hurt her
* Away from softer ground she looks vulnerable
* EXCEL4S BEAUTY is the right kind of 3yo
* She has a reasonably similar profile to the 2007
* That winner had more backclass and 2 fewer runs though
* She will try and make the running
* Not sure she has the class to beat her elders
Shortlist
* RISKIT FORA BISKIT improved last year and a decent profile
* MARCH is quite like the 2000 winner Cassandra Go
* No real reason why she can't win
* It would worry me she may be best at 6f
* She is also not guaranteed to be fit
* She does top my Racing Post Ratings table
* LADIES ARE FOREVER - Easily the best horse in the race
* Two runs this year may also be an advantage
* I'd prefer more evidence that a quick 5f suits these days
* Not overkeen her 3rd run of the year was poor in past seasons
* Pound for Pound she has to be the most likely winner
* I'd prefer her as a saver bet
Racing Post Ratings
5f races on Good or Faster ground
Since January 1st 2013
102 March
98 Excel's Beauty
98 Hurryupharriet
97 Hurryupharriet
96 Jillnextdoor
94 Swan Song
Selection
MARCH 7/1 Win Bet
LADIES ARE FOREVER 9/4 Saver
N o t t i n h g a m 7.15
This is a 3yo maiden over 10f. I think its best to leave the
race alone. I wanted THREE PEAKS to be shorter as he's
not safe statistically. Horses coming from 7f races as 3yo's
were 0-35 in all similar maidens and I wanted to take him
on. ZAEEMAH has been very heavily backed. She has not
run before. I didn't want to bet or oppose her so I think it
is best to leave the race with other unraced horses as well.
No Selection
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Best Wishes
Guy Ward
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk
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