Mathematician 1762
1 Bet Today
Win Bet
2 Savers
Newcastle 2.15
OVERPRICED 13/2 - Win Bet
COOL BARANCA 8/1 Saver Bet
THE FLAMING MATRON 7/1 Saver Bet
I am going with a bet today. This is a win bet
on OVERPRICED and two savers. I do not like
having two savers in a bet. I appreciate many
people don't like this but I explain my reasons
later on and it is something I rarely do. This is
a race that swings on one issue and we need
to cover the stakes with two savers to be sure.
Staking Guidance
For Every #10 Staked on this bet
OVERPRICED #6 Win
COOL BARANCA #2 Win
THE FLAMING MATRON #2 Win
If Overpriced wins then it will be on at least
a 7/2 winner. A Cool Baranca win will return
us a respectable profit and we can't lose any
stakes if The Flaming Matron wins as well.
M e s s a g e C o n t e n t
This is my last message before Boxing day so
have a lovely Christmas and enjoy the break.
We will regroup next Thursday when we get
some big end of year races to try to get right.
Three National Hunt and Lingfield on the flat
today. I come into todays message in red hot
form. I can't remember the last losing bet we
had on the account. Today will be a test and
it may be asking a lot for another winner but
I will do my best. I have a gravitational pull
towards the Welsh National and I can feel it
now. There is enough time now without the
daily grind to have a serious go at that race.
We need to get this message out of the way
first. There are 14 Previews today. The plan
was to cast the net and see what we catch.
Golden rule on Saturday is don't follow the
message blind as I do too many races and
the nature of Saturday racing forces us to
have a guess in more races than is normal.
M e s s a g e H i g h l i g h t s
Newcastle 2.15
Win Bet
Two Savers
OVERPRICED 7/1 Win Bet
COOL BARANCA 9/1 Saver Bet
THE FLAMING MATRON 7/1 Saver Bet
I've found a race I can do business in but
the success of failure of this bet will come
down to 1 factor. How the 3 year olds run.
I looked at every single Mares Handicap
Hurdle run at any distance and any time
of year. There are 439 of them since 1997
and NONE were won by a 3 year old. Not
one has ever won one of these mares races.
It's not as good as this looks as not many
tried. My theory is that if we can get the
3yo's beaten today we can take out 65%
of the market. If 3 year olds are unsuited
to these mares handicaps then we have
a massive edge . There are 3 in this race
all lightly raced and with little experience
and I fancy 3 older horses against them.
I have cornered the top 3 in the weights
in the hope and expectation that these
have too much for the 3yo's. I could be
wrong and a 3yo might win and if that
happens they we will be on a loser but
if so then we would have lost anyway.
S i r e s A n d S y s t e m s
I said I would tell you when Micheal Appleby
has a big priced horse running for the 1st time
for the stable. I showed the big priced winners
he's had in a recent message. I am only really
bothered about the 33/1 + horses especially if
they look dark and interesting. Today he runs
EXPOSE in the 1.25 at Lingfield who I mention
purely for observational reasons not as a bet.
Today's Sire is DIAMOND GREEN
* I used this horse recently but have to again
* I looked at his runners on softer ground
* The Sire's runners aged 3 + are 1-107 on soft
* I wouldn't want to bet one on very bad ground
Newcastle 2.15 - HI CANDI 9/2
* She is a 3yo running on soft ground
* I would oppose her in this race
F r i d a y s R e v i e w
I backed off yesterday and had no account bet.
There were two options both each singles and
much as I was tempted I rejected both of these.
In the end they both placed so we wouldn't be
too far off breaking level which was the result
of the bet I suggested combining both of these
two as a mention. Pleased Sires and Systems
had a winning positive and a losing negative.
That column continues to deliver. It was never
going to be a substantial message. Hopefully I
saved something better for today's message.
P r o f i l e s A n d P r e v i e w s
L i n g f i e l d 12.20
11/8 Examiner, 11/4 First Experience
11/4 Impulsive Moment, 7/1 Galaxy
8/1 Capers Royal Star, 25/1 Rose Buck
50/1 Flying Author.
* This is a 2yo novice over a Mile
* We backed last years winner of this race
* There is a similar profile today
* Male horses winning 8f maidens last time
* Having a recent run within 6 weeks
* There were 10 horses that had this profile
* They finished W 3 W 4 W 2 W W W in a 6-9 record
* EXAMINER has this profile
* I wouldn't oppose him in this race
Selection
EXAMINER 5/4 +
Win Bet
H a y d o c k 12.30
2/1 Ahyaknowyerself, 5/2 Valco De Touzaine
3/1 Mwaleshi, 4/1 Rockawango, 16/1 Noche De Reyes.
* This is a 2m Novice Chase
* There are 108 similar races in December
* AHYAKNOWYERSELF is 7 years old
* He was beaten on his only Chase run so far
* Should improve and could win
* The last time out winners have better profiles
* MWALESHI has the same problem
* Statistically could win but 1 superior profile
* ROCKAWANGO did win last time out
* It was a Novice Handicap Chase though
* No horse won a Novice Handicap last time
* Small field anything can happen
* VALCO DE TOUZAINE is a 4yo
* He won a Novice Chase last time out
* There were 4 horses with this profile
* They finished W 2 W W
* One of them won this race in 2005
* VALCO DE TOUZAINE has the strongest profile
Selection
VALCO DE TOUZAINE 7/4
Win Bet
A s c o t 12.45
4/1 Brave Buck, 5/1 Forever Present, 7/1 Josies Orders
8/1 Boss In Boots, 10/1 Coup De Grace, 10/1 Patsys Castle
10/1 Sybarite, 14/1 Lone Ranger, 14/1 Zafaraban
16/1 Daliance, 16/1 Miles Of Sunshine, 20/1 Tinker Time
25/1 Bob Tucker, 25/1 Westaway, 33/1 Knight Flight.
This is always a really ferocious race run over 3m.
There are 13 similar races since 1998 and we may
not be wise to think we can sort this. I would take
on the 4 year olds. They have won a race but they
don't score well. Female horses are 0-26 in the 13
races. I can resist FOREVER PRESENT as an older
mare from a Novice Hurdle. ZAFARABAN is a little
too exposed for me. I'd avoid LONE RANGER from
a 2m race. BOB TUCKER doesn't offer me enough.
I couldn't rule out PATSYS CASTLE but I don't like
his profile as he is so lightly raced when carrying
topweight. COUP DE GRACE is rejected as a 4yo.
Shortlist
* SYBARITE - Not overkeen but too unorthodox to ignore
* JOSIES ORDERS - Can't be discounted
* 5 year olds winning handicaps last time do well
* Two horses have that profile here
* BOSS IN BOOTS - Keep him on side
* BRAVE BUCK - Also shares this profile and is a player
* I could give a chance to all of these
* Any selection from here will only be a guess
Selection
BOSS IN BOOTS 9/1 Win Bet
JOSIES ORDE 8/1 Saver Bet
L i n g f i e l d 12.55
3/1 Touch The Clouds, 7/2 Hipz, 7/2 Sebs Sensei
11/2 Gobertier, 6/1 Kodafine, 10/1 My My My Diliza
16/1 Vodka Chaser, 20/1 Previous Acclaim.
* This is a 6f Claimer for 2 year olds
* There are 27 similar races at this time of year
* The weights suggest the following are wrong
* PREVIOUS ACCLAIM - MY MY MY DILIZA
* VODKA CHASER is also badly weighted
* They would all be much better off in handicaps
* SEBS SENSEI is absent 114 days
* The longest absent winner was 84 days
* Horses with 3 + runs all ran within 59 days
* SEBS SENSEI doesn't come out well
* GOBERTIER is stablemate of SEBS SENSEI
* He has 3 runs and a run 3 days ago
* What lighter raced winners there were had absences
* Not sure I like that inexperience with a recent run
* KODAFINE is a filly from a 5f race
* There were 4 winners doing that with 2 9 8 11 runs
* KODAFINE has 14 runs
* She also comes from a handicap
* Fillies from 5f handicaps were 0-13
* KODAFINE doesn't match any of the 27 winners
* I do like that recent run though
* HIPZ is a filly down from 7f
* Fillies doing this were 2-32
* None came from handicaps like her
* Fillies from 7f races with under 10 runs were 0-21
* HIPZ is not like any winners
* TOUCH THE CLOUDS comes from a 6f Nursery
* That was a Class 2 race and this is only a Class 6
* Statistically this is not a bomb proof profile
* No horse tried to win from a Class 2 Nursery
* TOUCH THE CLOUDS is a neutral profile
* All the opposition though have unsafe profiles
* He could make this drop in class tell
Selection
I haven't convinced myself that I am safe enough
with TOUCH THE CLOUDS given his absence. I'm
more inclined to pull in a saver on the horse with
a recent race as that fitness could save the day.
TOUCH THE CLOUDS 4/1 + Win Bet
KODAFINE 3/1 Saver Bet
A s c o t 1.15
Evs Easter Day, 2/1 O4faolains Boy
7/2 Baby Mix, 25/1 Join The Navy.
This is a Graduation Chase over 2m 5f. There are
20 of these races in December. They tend to have
badly treated horses that have reasons not to take
their chance in handicaps. I had a general sweep
of all Graduation Chases to see if any angles look
interesting. There are 2 angles that looks relevant.
* All 20 winners had under 15 Chase starts
* 18 of the 20 winners had run this season
* O4FAOLAINS BOY - No seasonal debutant aged 6 won
* No Chasing debutant won either
* I would stay with EASTER DAY and BABY MIX
* BABY MIX has 4 Chase runs EASTER DAY 2
* Given he is the bigger price he looks the bet
Selection
BABY MIX 3/1
Win Bet
L i n g f i e l d 1.25
7/2 Poyle Vinnie, 4/1 Hot Sugar, 6/1 Haadeeth
7/1 Lujeanie, 7/1 Monsieur Royale, 10/1 Where4s Reiley
12/1 Drawnfromthepast, Never A Quarrel, 14/1 Expose
14/1 Only Ten Per Cent.
* This is a 5f handicap for 0-70 rated horses
* There are 179 similar races at this time of year
* Horses aged 7 or more absent over a month are 1-59
* WHERE'S REILEY fails this aged 7 absent 87 days
* I can't see a good enough case for him
* I have fitness problems with the following horses
* EXPOSE is unsafe absent 443 days
* DRAWNFROMTHEPAST is underraced for an 8yo
* He has raced just once in 122 days
* I think he has the best 5f lingfield form in the race
* That earns him respect but he isn't my choice
* Not when so old and short of recent runs
* ONLY TEN PER CENT comes from a 7f race
* I looked at horses well beaten over 7f last time
* None managed to win with more than 7 runs
* ONLY TEN PER CENT is exposed and not safe
* NEVER A QUARREL is a 3yo filly from a 5f handicap
* Fillies with this profile and under 10 runs were 3-26
* Thats not a bad profile but none ran as recently as her
* All 3 winners also ran better last time
* They were all beaten under 3 lengths last time out
* NEVER A QUARREL was beaten further than that
* Stable are hard to read. I wasn't convinced
* POYLE VINNIE is 3 and comes from a 5f maiden
* 6 winners did that and had 9 6 9 5 9 8 previous runs
* POYLE VINNIE only has 4 runs
* Horses aged 3 winning 5f maidens were 4-15
* They had 9 9 5 9 previous runs
* POYLE VINNIE with 4 runs could be a bit short of runs
* HAADEETH is 6 and won a handicap last time
* That was 47 days ago though
* I looked at horses aged 5 + winning last time
* There were 9 winners and all ran within 24 days
* None of these were absent nearly as long
* That makes HAADEETH unsafe
* MONSIEUR ROYALE is a 3yo
* He won a 6f handicap last time out
* Horses aged 3 doing that had a strong 3-8 record
* The 3 winners were absent 16 15 10 days
* MONSIEUR ROYALE is absent 28 days
* The 3 winners had 6 8 9 previous runs
* MONSIEUR ROYALE has 11 runs
* He is more exposed than similar winners
* He has a longer absence as well
* That would worry me
Shortlist
* HOT SUGAR is a 4yo from 5f with 19 runs
* It's a safe profile that gets him shortlisted
* This is a better race than he has ran in recently
* He won this last year and is handicapped to win
* LUJEANIE is 7 and drops from 6f
* Horses doing that without a run in 2 weeks were 2-42
* Not a strong profile but 2 winners did it
* LUJEANIE is also well treated these days
* You can also add a 3-10 record running in December
* There are doubts not least no wins at 5f
* He has a 0-15 record over 5f but was second 3 times
* LUJEANIE- Big chance but has to prove 5f suits
Selection
LUJEANIE 6/1 Win Bet
HOT SUGAR 4/1 Saver Bet
A s c o t 1.50
* This is a 17f Handicap
* Not my kind of race so not dwelling here
* PENDRA is 5 and won a Novice Chase last time
* Only 2 winners aged 5 came from Novice Chases
* Neither won last time out
* Both had 4 + Chase runs and he has just 2
* Win lose or draw he isn't like a winner
* I would avoid betting PENDRAW
* No Selection
L i n g f i e l d 2.00
100/30 Mia4s Boy, 4/1 Crius, 5/1 Tasrih
7/1 Silverheels, 8/1 Alfred Hutchinson
8/1 Emerald Wilderness, 8/1 Rhamnus
10/1 Freewheel, 33/1 Trader Jack.
* This is an All aged Conditions race over 8f
* Only 15 renewals and no similar races elsewhere
* I can tell you 3 year olds are 0-26 in this race
* FREEWHEEL is out aged 3 when so lightly raced too
* RHAMNUS is also out as a 3yo underraced this year
* The longest absent winner was 69 days
* CRIUS absent 170 has that against him
* TRADER JACK has just badly downgraded stables
* A miserable last run makes him unattractive
* Interesting all 15 winners had at least 16 previous runs
* TASRIH only has 5 career starts
* Nothing like any previous winner
* He also gives weight to horses rated higher than him
* EMERALD WILDERNESS - We haven't had a 9yo win this
* He was thrashed only 9 days ago as well
* Not a profile I would find encouraging
* His trainer hasn't had a winner in 10 months as well
* There is a statistic here about last time out runs
* All 15 winners ran well last time out
* None were beaten more than 7 lengths
* Horses beaten that far were 0-47
* EMERALD WILDERNESS fails that
* SILVERHEELS also fails that as well
* He has 63 days absence to overcome too
* No horse aged 4-5 won this absent a month or more
Shortlist
* MIA4S BOY ran well enough to consider
* He is older than all 15 winners but I overlook that
* Fitness and recent form trump that
* ALFRED HUTCHINSON looks shortlistable too
* This drop in class and small field could suit him
Selection
ALFRED HUTCHINSON 9/2
Each Way
H a y d o c k 2.05
5/1 Emperor4s Choice, 13/2 Safran De Cotte
7/1 Night Alliance, 15/2 No Planning, 8/1 Ballytober
8/1 Loch Ba, 9/1 Tartak, 9/1 Wicklow Lad
10/1 Samstown, 12/1 Triptico, 14/1 Solix
16/1 Balinroab.
The Tommy Whittle Chase has only been run as a
handicap in the last six years so it's not that rich in
history and doesn't have strong angles. All winners
of this had at least 6 Chase starts and that puts me
off BALLYTOBER with 2 chase starts. The statistical
issue is what to do with the 6 year olds. They have
never won this race yet. I looked at the 40 handicap
chases like this run at Haydock in this class all year
round and 6 year olds have struggled in them with
a modest 1-24 record in 40 races. Now one may go
and win today given how many are fancied but I'd
rather take an older horse. EMPEROR4S CHOICE is
only 6 and not sure you'd want a 6yo coming down
from 3m 4f with just 1 run this season. SAMSTOWN
is 6 and no winners came from a Novice Handicap
Chase so I should look elsewhere. NO PLANNING's
a 6yo and I don't really want that and he has quite
a big weight. I don't see SOLIX defying topweight.
I see TRIPTICO as unsafe well beaten only recently
after a poor round of jumping. NIGHT ALLIANCE is
not for me given his shoddy jumping last time out.
Shortlist
* LOCH BA - Not sure how he will run today
* Hard to judge what the Hennessy took out of him
* He also has a 7lbs claimer riding
* TARTAK - I don't like the stable or the absence
* He is well treated though and isn't out of this
* SAFRAN DE COTTE - One of the safer profiles
* WICKLOW LAD - There are positives about him
* He has a 7lbs claimer though
* Just wondered if he was better in the Spring
Selection
WICKLOW LAD 9/1 Each Way
SAFRAN DE COTTE 8/1 Saver
N e w c a s t l e 2.15
2/1 Chasse En Mer, 4/1 Hi Candy, 11/2 Nautical Twilight
7/1 The Flaming Matron, 8/1 Cool Baranca, 8/1 Overpriced
10/1 Sparkling Hand, 14/1 Flogarose.
* This is a Mares Handicap Hurdle over 2m
* Only 12 of these races have been run
* There is one issue that matters
* How do 3 year olds get on
* The answer is inconclusive
* None have tried to win over this 2m distance
* There were 5 that tried to win over further
* These finished 4 7 3 5 4 starting 7/1 9/1 7/1 10/1 4/1
* It is a completely unsortable issue
* I would much rather have an older horse myself
* Especially on a stiff track on soft ground
* NAUTICAL TWILIGHT is a 3 year old
* Just 2 runs in 3yo only races not for me
* HI CANDY - I oppose her in Sires and Systems
* Ben Haslam is not a trainer to fear
* She has a tough absence and I just don't want her
* CHASSE EN MER is 3 and starts favourite
* Her Racing Post Ratings don't suggest she's thrown in
* If lightly raced 3 year olds are suited to these races
* Then she could go and win but that's unproven
* I am taking on all these 3 year olds
* FLOGAROSE - I wouldn't rule her out
* She has been running badly in better races
* I am just trying to find positives and I can't
Shortlist
* THE FLAMING MATRON has at least won a race
* Coming down from 2m 6f + is a concern
* She will love the ground though and I respect her
* COOL BARANCA has been running quite well
* She's more exposed than ideal
* This is her easiest race for some time though
* Look at COOL BARANCA's record
* Running on soft ground
* Handicap Hurdles over 2m 2f or shorter
* Fewer than 13 runners
* Class 3 or lower
* She has ran 14 times under these conditions
* These are the results of the 14 races
* 4 W 3 7 4 PU 2 W 3 2 W W 2
* There is a 5-14 record which is encouraging
* My main worry is she's a better horse in the spring
* OVERPRICED is rated 117
* COOL BARANCA is rated 115
* If you look at the next highest rated horse it is 105
* There is a case these two are better class
* OVERPRICED -Her main doubt is the ground
* She has won on soft but she prefers it good
* She is also more exposed than I'd like
* That said she has form to easily win this
* Dropped in Grade she could outclass these
Selection
OVERPRICED 7/1
Each Way
L i n g f i e l d 2.35
3/1 Gatewood, 4/1 Tales Of Grimm
7/1 Dick Doughtywylie, 8/1 Galician
8/1 True To Form, 10/1 Energia Davos
10/1 Proud Chieftain, 10/1 Tinshu
100/1 Poitin.
* This is a Listed Class race over a 10f
* We have just 5 past renewals and no similar races
* All 5 winners had the following in common
* They were all aged 4-5-6
* They all ran within a month
* They all had at least 15 runs
* They all had at least 6 runs this season
* They all had form in Listed or Group races before
* They all finished 1st or 2nd last time out
* Their last run was in Class 2 or higher
* Their last run was over at least 8f
* There is just one horse passing all these angles
* DICK DOUGHTYWYLIE is that horse
* You can then get into mind games
* John Gosden trains him and GATEWOOD
* GATEWOOD is rated 8lbs higher as well
* The only angle GATEWOOD fails is absence
* He has been off 45 days rather than under 31 days
* It is too harsh to rule him out on that alone
* I think he should be a saver
Selection
DICK DOUGHTYWYLIE 7/1 Win Bet
GATEWOOD 5/2 Saver Bet
A s c o t 3.00
5/2 Triolo D4alene, 7/2 Houblon Des Obeaux
5/1 Cedre Bleu, 6/1 Bless The Wings, 6/1 Storm Survivor
10/1 What A Warrior, 16/1 Battle Group, 25/1 Problema Tic.
* This is a 3m Handicap chase
* Listed Class race and 11 past renewals
* TRIOLO D4ALENE won the Hennessy last time
* HOUBLON DES OBEAUX came 6th in the same race
* This issue is whether 3 weeks is enough recovery time
* There were 15 horses in this race that tried this
* The 15 horses from the Hennessy finished as follows
* 2 6 PU 5 PU PU PU 10 2 2 PU 5 4 UR 3
* All 15 were beaten
* TRIOLO D4ALENE - I don't want to bet him off 158
* Not coming from what could be a bad trial race
* HOUBLON DES OBEAUX - Rejected for similar reasons
* BATTLE GROUP - Refused to race last time. Too risky.
* PROBLEMA TIC isn't running well enough
* WHAT A WARRIOR - His soft ground 3m form is weak
Shortlist
* STORM SURVIVOR fell at the 1st last time
* As that was Aintree we should forgive him
* Nice weight and plenty to like
* CEDRE BLEU - should stay and could win this
* BLESS THE WINGS needed the run last time
* I'd give him a good chance of taking this
Selection
CEDRE BLEU 5/1
Each Way
L i n g f i e l d 3.10
3/1 Grendisar, 7/2 Modernstone, 7/2 Nautilus
5/1 Super Say, 7/1 Lady Rosamunde, 10/1 Lowther
12/1 Mawaakef.
* This is a Class 2 handicap over 12f
* Pointless doing any angles as there are only 4 races
* Just going to make a few assumptions here
* LOWTHER - I don't want an 8yo hammered last time
* MAWAAKEF - Not keen on his absence
* LADY ROSAMUNDE - I don't want a mare absent 162 days
* MODERNSTONE - Lightly raced 3yo filly may be risky
Shortlist
* SUPER SAY - 2nd in this last year
* NAUTILUS - One of the more likely winners
* GRENDISAR - Well treated 3yo should go well
* Hard to split these three
Selection - GRENDISAR 3/1 Win Bet
A s c o t 3.35
7/1 City Slicker, 7/1 Rolling Star, 8/1 Chatterbox
8/1 Dell4 Arca, 8/1 Totalize, 12/1 Chris Pea Green
12/1 Willow4s Saviour, 14/1 Flaxen Flare
16/1 Kaylif Aramis, 16/1 Pine Creek 20/1 Irish Saint
20/1 Ptit Zig, 20/1 Recession Proof
25/1 Landscape, 25/1 Shotavodka, 33/1 Alaivan
33/1 Ronaldo Des Mottes, 33/1 Vulcanite
33/1 Waterunder, 50/1 Dan Breen.
* This is a 2m Handicap Hurdle
* There are 9 past renewals of this race
* The race was abandoned in 2009 and 2010
* I looked at similar high class races in December
* There are 23 races that are similar to this
* Horses aged 8 or more have a 1-57 record
* The only winner that age won 2 weeks beforehand
* DAN BREEN - RONALDO DES MOTTES are 8yo's
* Neither offer enough on their last runs
* Horses aged 7or more are just 4-115
* Respect them if winning recently
* Those aged 7 beaten recently were 0-60
* SHOTAVODKA fails this
* RECESSION PROOF fails this
* ALAIVAN fails this
* I don't want a horse aged 7 + with 2 + runs this year
* Horses aged 7 doing this were 0-49
* SHOTAVODKA fails this as well
* I want a recent run in this handicap
* Seasonal debutants are 1-52 in these 23 races
* I would eliminate horses without recent runs
* LANDSCAPE looks unsafe first time out
* You need a good last run
* 16 of the 23 winners won their previous race
* 22 of the 23 winners finished 1-2-3 last time out
* VULCANITE didn't do enough last time
* KAYLIF ARAMIS doesn't appeal falling last time
* This trip may be shorter than ideal anyway
* WATERUNDER didn't do enough last time
* Horses aged 4 have an interesting record
* Before last years race they were 0-34 in this race
* In 23 similar races they have a 6-89 record
* I want to look at the 6 winners aged 4
* They all ran within 34 days but that doesn't help
* All 6 winners aged 4 had 10st 13lbs or less
* Horses aged 4 with 11st or more were 0-34
* Only 1 of these managed to finish 2nd as well
* Horses aged 4 with 11st or more are not safe
* PTIT ZIG is 4 and has 11st 12lbs
* ROLLING STAR is 4 and has 11st 11lbs
* PTIT ZIG is out with that sort of weight
* This looks a warm up race before chasing
* The 4yo winners had 8 10 7 8 6 2 previous hurdle runs
* The 4yo winners had 2 5 1 2 4 5 runs since June
* The 4yo winners had 2 3 1 2 0 0 handicap hurdle run
* ROLLING STAR has 5 Hurdle starts which I can live with
* I really don't like that big weight though
* He comes from an Intermediate hurdle not the norm
* You can also question him in a field as big as this
* ROLLING STAR is not safe enough statistically
* IRISH SAINT is 4 and Fell last time out
* Not the best preparation and I don't fancy him
* TOTALIZE is 4 with 4 hurdle runs
* His last run was on the Flat
* No 4yo won coming from a Flat race
* He could pop up but no winners were similar
* 22 of the 23 winners finished 1-2-3 last time out
* PINE CREEK was only 6th last time
* Not convinced he did enough last time
* He may find this a bit too sharp for him
* WILLOW4S SAVIOUR won nicely last time out
* It was only at Musselburgh though
* It's his lack of backclass that worries me most
* 10 hurdle runs and never been beyond Class 2
* Most past winner had fewer runs and Graded form
* FLAXEN FLARE is 4 and has 9 hurdle starts
* I'd have liked a bit less weight
* I'd have liked a better last run as well
* I don't see a very strong reason to oppose him
* Equally not really good reasons to bet him
Shortlist
* CITY SLICKER is an Irish Raider
* He has 5 runs and won his last two
* Nice profile but his last win was off 119
* Today he has to win off a much higher 138
* It's clear he was very well handicapped off 119
* You wouldn't rule him out winning off 138
* It did take him 4 runs to win a maiden hurdle
* He also may not want the ground too soft
* CHATTERBOX is 5 and has 4 hurdle starts
* Past winners of this had the following hurdle starts
* 8 7 5 5 6 5 9 4
* There were 3 winners in 23 races with 4 hurdle starts
* They all won last time out and he didn't
* That said he was a good 2nd last time when needing it
* CHATTERBOX has enough to be shortlisted
* DELL4 ARCA is a 4yo with 4 hurdle runs
* Hard to read as 3 of those runs came in France
* I would have preferred another hurdle run
* He's done very little wrong though and cost a bomb
* CHRIS PEA GREEN is a 4 year old
* His 3lbs jockey takes some weight off his back
* With 6 runs handicap form and Grade 1 form he's ok
* He comes from a Good trial race
* The softer the ground the better for him
Selection
CHRIS PEA GREEN 14/1
Each Way
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Best Wishes
Guy Ward
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk
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