Mathematician 1875
No Main Account bet
2 Optional Account bets
O p t i o n a l A c c o u n t
Haydock 2.20
GLEN MOSS 7/1
Each Way
Haydock 3.25
FOXTROT ROMEO 8/1 Each Way
SWEET LIGHTNING 9/1 Saver
This Saturday the message is based around the six
Scoop 6 races as a members syndicate ambitiously
attempts to do the unlikely. We have £15k in perms
yet are still probably over 20/1 to win. This process
has disrupted things for a couple of days but it will
finish today probably in defeat and I can move on.
I am locked in to looking only at the Scoop 6 races
today. Too many people contributed serious money
to the fund for me to divide my attention elsewhere
so I feel I have to keep to narrow parameters today.
I am going with Two Optional Account Bets from 6
previews. Needs no saying how competitive it will
be in every race. I have only had 6 races to select
today's bets from but this is a one off and the last
two account bets both won so if we get beaten we
are only giving back winnings. I will send the perm
out before racing starts. 50 tickets in the total fund
have been bought on behalf of Saturday Day Pass buyers
this week.Daypasser are deemed an investor in the total fund
as opposed to 50 separate ring fenced lines thus
benefit from the wider total perm coverage.
Once today's circus is over it will be just business
as usual. I do plan to do a Sunday Message but it
may not contain any previews. I am just planning
to roam about in England Ireland and France and
take my time no doubt regretting the Scoop 6 bet.
P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S
S a n d o w n 2.05
4/1 Keltus, 7/1 Raven´s Tower, 15/2 Baradari
8/1 Ronaldinho, 8/1 Saint Jerome, 9/1 Dolores Delightful
9/1 Stiff Upper Lip, 10/1 Vodka Wells, 11/1 Dispour, 11/1 Stephen Hero
16/1 Fitzwilly, 20/1 Ballyglasheen, 20/1 Sleepy Haven.
* This is a 4yo handicap
* Widen open race and not many similar races
* Only 2 renewals and 10 similar races elsewhere
* The following horses look unlikely winners
* BALLYGLASHEEN - SLEEPY HAVEN
* 10 similar races and none were fillies
* The 10 winners all came quite high up in the weights
* DOLORES DELIGHTFUL is the only filly and bottomweight
* She may lack the class to take this
* All 10 winners ran within 58 days
* STEPHEN HERO has to face a 108 day absence
* DISPOUR - 10 horses came from a Grade 1 and all lost
* 3 placed. Not ruled out but there are safer profiles
* FITZWILLY is fit from the flat so respected
* No winners came from the flat. He is hard to read
* His handicap mark just looks too high on his past runs
Possibles
* VODKA WELLS - No English form and not a top stable
* Top class jockey and soft ground form are positives
* STIFF UPPER LIP - dangerous to ignore winning 6 days ago
* This is a much harder race and others have done more
* SAINT JEROME has been winning nicely in weaker races
* Don't like that he is not a big horse and has topweight
* His stamina would also worry me by Jeremy
* His Racing Post Ratings give him a serious chance
* RAVEN´S TOWER is having a good season and won last time
* My main fear is 9 hurdle starts more than all 10 similar winners
* RONALDINHO - I'd keep him on side but stamina worries me
* KELTUS was 4th in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham
* Must for the shortlisted and could win if handling the ground
* BARADARI - 5th at Cheltenham but fell at Aintree
* Not ideal. None have won after a fall but just 3 tried
* Not enough to rule him out though
Selection
Hardest race of the message for me and I could see any
of ten winning it. In terms of a selection if I stick to what
seems a weak script and ignore last time fallers and all
the fillies and the absent and over exposed horses then
the safer bets are Keltus- Ronaldinho - Stiff Upper Lip &
Saint Jerome. At the prices It is RONALDINHO each way.
Selection
RONALDINHO 8/1
Each Way
H a y d o c k 2.20
5/1 Sir Reginald, 11/2 Glen Moss, 6/1 Big Johnny D
7/1 Louis The Pious, 8/1 Dont Bother Me, 10/1 Bertiewhittle
10/1 Newstead Abbey, 12/1 Consign, 12/1 Fort Bastion, 14/1 Balty Boys
14/1 Gramercy, 16/1 Set The Trend, 33/1 Kenny Powers
33/1 Regal Parade.
* This is a Class 2 handicap over 7f
* April has 15 of these races and these angles stand out
* Horses aged 4 and 5 dominate winning 14 of the 15 races
* Horses aged 6 or more have a 1-74 record in the 15 races
* All 15 winners either ran within a month or were first time out
* Horses that came up in trip were just 1-51 in 15 races
* Horses that came from Listed or Group races were 0-25
* BERTIEWHITTLE seems the wrong type. Badly treated.
* He has some powerful number but lost his last 23 runs since 2011
* He's a hard ride as well and has a 7lbs claimer today
* SET THE TREND fails my angles as an 8 year old
* He wants fast ground and a small field
* LOUIS THE PIOUS - Not ideal aged 6 or coming up from 6f
* He is also 0-7 racing over longer than 6 furlongs
* GRAMERCY is 0-11 racing over this trip
* As a 7yo debutant he is also not the right type
* REGAL PARADE fails my angles as a 10 year old
* SIR REGINALD is 6 and comes from a 6f race
* We know both those factors are statistically weak
* DONT BOTHER ME comes from a Group race
* That hasn't been done by any similar winners
* I looked at all Class 2 handicaps at every distance in April
* 4 year olds from Group races were only 1-72
* In races under 10f then all 32 lost
* DONT BOTHER ME is therefore rejected
* KENNY POWERS - His 2 recent runs drain my confidence
* There were 7 winners that had recent runs
* Those beaten 10 + lengths in that recent run were 0-44
* CONSIGN and BALTY BOYS both fails that
* CONSIGN and BALTY BOYS both drop from a mile
* Horses from 8f races in the last month were 1-48
* That winner was the only older horse that won (Thinn aged 9)
* BALTY BOYS has never won in the class or off his rating
* NEWSTEAD ABBEY - His flaw is coming from 6f
* He will probably need a career best
* FORT BASTION - Well treated but he is quirky
* He has downgraded stables over the winter too
* BIG JOHNNY D is a 5yo debutant as were 3 winners
* They had 13 27 12 career starts and he has 10
* I can live with that profile
* GLEN MOSS is a big runner with a good recent run
Selection
GLEN MOSS 7/1 Each Way
R i p o n 2.50
7/1 Doc Hay, 8/1 Barkston Ash
8/1 Body And Soul, 8/1 Hillbilly Boy, 10/1 Fast Shot
12/1 Captain Ramius, 12/1 Cosmic Chatter, 12/1 El Viento
12/1 Hopes N Dreams, 12/1 Pearl Ice, 14/1 Best Trip
16/1 Clear Spring, 16/1 Colonel Mak, 16/1 Love Island
25/1 Ancient Cross, 25/1 Misplaced Fortune.
* This is a 6f handicap for 0-105 rated horses
* There are only 13 similar races in April and none here
* Ripon has 36 races over 6f since 2012
* Horses drawn 14 or higher are 0-36 in these 36 races
* The draw would suggest very high numbers are disadvantaged
* The following horses are drawn 14 and higher
* CLEAR SPRING - LOVE ISLAND - HOPES N DREAMS - COLONEL MAK
* COLONEL MAK has a weak record on sharp tracks anyway
* HOPES N DREAMS is unsafe as an older mare first time anyway
* Horses aged 7 or more are 0-46 in these 13 races
* DOC HAY - ANCIENT CROSS - BEST TRIP fail this
* MISPLACED FORTUNE COLONEL MAK also fail this
* BODY AND SOUL is a 4yo filly first time out
* That in itself isn't too much of a problem
* I looked at all Class 2 handicaps at every distance in April
* Fillies aged 4 win plenty over 7f and 8f first time out
* None have won over 5f or 6f though and this is 6f
* BODY AND SOUL comes from a Group race
* Same profile as Dont Bother Me in the 2.20pm
* 4 year olds from Group races were only 1-72
* In races under 10f then all 32 lost
* BODY AND SOUL fails that so is not a match to any winner
* COSMIC CHATTER is unsafe as a 4yo debutant
* Not keen he comes from a 5f handicap for 3 year olds
* COSMIC CHATTER also has a bad draw
* I looked at handicaps here with 11 or more runners
* Since 2012 Ripon has 20 of these handicaps
* All 20 winners were drawn between 3 and 13
* Horses drawn 1 and 2 were 0-35
* COSMIC CHATTER drawn 2 is a problem
* FAST SHOT - Not sure Stall 1 will help him either
* FAST SHOT has a career high mark and a 7lbs lady Apprentice
* EL VIENTO likes it here has a good draw and is respected
* He doesn't win as often as he should though
* All his wins come in July onwards
* Sceptical he will deliver a career best he needs 2nd time out from 5f
* PEARL ICE downgraded stables over the winter
* He is now with the youngest trainer in the game
* On a career high mark I'm not convinced
* CAPTAIN RAMIUS has won a handicap off 100
* Today he has to do it off 105
* CAPTAIN RAMIUS ran this year over 7f
* Horses doing this in the 13 similar races were 0-17
* He's better at 7f and has never won before July
* HILLBILLY BOY comes from 7f this season
* We know horses doing this were 0-17
* He's fit and on a hat trick but there are worries
* Not happy he won over 7f and drops back in trip
* Not happy he does that when going from Class 4 to Class 2
* BARKSTON ASH has just won a Class 4 off 81
* Today he faces a Class 2 off 86
* He likes it here but has No Class 2 form at all
* He is 0-7 in Class 3 races as well so needs a career best
* Credit for being in form and having a recent run
* After 45 runs there won't be improvement and he may need that
Selection
I can and have criticised all of these. I decided that the best play
was to stay with the horses with more runs this season and with
recent races. HILLBILLY BOY and BARKSTON ASH look the ones
best fitting that profile and with BARKSTON ASH W 3 W at Ripon
there is a reasonably good case for him and Hillbilly Boy
BARKSTON ASH 8/1 Win Bet
HILLBILLY BOY 13/2 Saver Bet
H a y d o c k 3.25
9/2 Gabrial´s Kaka, 8/1 Brae Hill, 8/1 Ingleby Angel
17/2 Foxtrot Romeo, 9/1 Sweet Lightning, 9/1 Yourartisonfire
10/1 Robert The Painter, 12/1 Skytrain, 12/1 The Rectifier
14/1 Don´t Call Me, 16/1 Frog Hollow, 16/1 Sound Advice
16/1 Talented Kid, 25/1 Chosen Character, 25/1 Postscript
33/1 Tellovoi.
* This is a Class 2 handicap over a mile
* April has 26 of these races
* Horses aged 7 or more are 1-87
* Horses aged 6 or more are 3-179
* Horses aged 6 or more that ran that season were 1-117
* The following older horses have weak profiles
* DON´T CALL ME - THE RECTIFIER - BRAE HILL
* ROBERT THE PAINTER- CHOSEN CHARACTER
* POSTSCRIPT -TELLOVOI
* CHOSEN CHARACTER is surely being aimed at Chester
* SKYTRAIN doesn't look right from 7f just 3 days ago
* TALENTED KID is not right up in distance
* FROG HOLLOW is a 5yo seasonal debutant
* First time out 5 year olds are 2-48 in the 36 races
* FROG HOLLOW is unproven off his rating and in the class
* If he wins it won't be a shock but not for me
* Asking a lot to win first time out from Stall 15
* INGLEBY ANGEL is a 5yo seasonal debutant
* First time out 5 year olds are 2-48 in the 36 races
* He starts the year on a career high mark after 5 wins in 2013
* His first time out record is not strong
* More likely winners out there but not a negative
* SOUND ADVICE is 5 fit and running well this year
* He does come up two Grades in Class though
* I think that and stall 16 will beat him
Shortlist
* SWEET LIGHTNING has a weak profile as he is 9 year old
* He is fit and running well though
* He ran very well at Newbury when badly drawn
* Loves a big field and one of the fittest runners
* FOXTROT ROMEO comes from Newbury's Spring Cup
* He is an unexposed 5yo and has to be shortlisted
* He ran as if he could improve a lot from last time out
* YOURARTISONFIRE is 4 and has run this year
* I looked at 4 year olds doing this with 12-13-14 career runs
* When coming from 8f handicaps they were 4-23
* YOURARTISONFIRE looks one of the best profiles
* His problem is stamina over this distance
* It didn't look like he stayed at Doncaster over 8f last time
* This Mile at Haydock is a lot stiffer
* The Standard time for the mile is almost 4 seconds longer
* That tells me he may not get home
* GABRIAL´S KAKA is 4 and very similar to Yourartisonfire
* He won last time which makes his profile more neutral
* I see him more as a neutral positive
Selection
FOXTROT ROMEO 8/1 Each Way
SWEET LIGHTNING 9/1 Saver
R i p o n 3.30
9/2 Bayan, 5/1 Sizzler, 7/1 Chocala, 7/1 Mubaraza
9/1 Hunting Ground, 10/1 Ardlui, 10/1 Esteaming
10/1 Huff And Puff 12/1 Angel Gabrial, 12/1 Saptapadi
16/1 Moidore, 20/1 Be Perfect, 20/1 Herostatus.
* This is a 2m handicap for 0-95 rated horses
I have never done this race before. One decision we have to
make is about the Draw even over 2 miles which may sound
crazy. This is a sharp track though only 1m 5f circumference
and the higher drawn horses could easily get trapped wide
on a track where front runners do well. There is not enough
evidence to be sure though but this draw stat interested me.
* Since 2011 Ripon have 14 races over 2 miles
* Horses drawn 9 or higher are 0-28 so far
HEROSTATUS and BE PERFECT failed to do enough last time.
I feel the same about MOIDORE needing lots of improvement.
* April has 36 of these 2m handicaps in Class C-B-A
* Horses aged 8 or more are just 1-71 in these 36 races
* SAPTAPADI is 8 and rejected first time out
* His trainer says he may need the run anyway
* ARDLUI is a seasonal debutant aged 6 with topweight
* Seasonal debutants aged 6 or more are 4-57
* Those with 9st 10lbs or more are 0-16
* ARDLUI probably wont defy topweight first time
* He did win the race last year with 92 days absence
* ANGEL GABRIAL - Stall 14 may damage his chance
* I don't mind his overall profile to be honest
* Just needs to prove he stays and that the draw is not an issue
* He has lost all 8 times he raced on sharp tracks though
* MUBARAZA is a 5yo seasonal debutant
* Several won the longest absence 222 days
* MUBARAZA has been off 301 days quite a bit longer
* The ground could be a concern for him
* Hard to be sure he's doing his best or can run to it
* The market is hinting not today but unsafe to discount
* ESTEAMING comes from a 10f race
* None of the 36 winners did that just 9 tried though
* He is 4 and won last time out this year
* 2 winners did that but both ran over 2m last time
* Both had more runs that season than he does as well
* ESTEAMING is not in a safe place statistically
* HUFF AND PUFF has been novice hurdling
* There were winners from Hurdle races
* Those aged 6-7-8 like him were 0-27 though
* I can't match him exactly to any winners
* One of those spoilers that could pop up and kill a bet
Shortlist
* HUNTING GROUND was well beaten last time over 2m
* He has won at the trip but that last run is a concern
* Only 8 days ago normally I'd be negative
* He may just lead from Stall 1 though on a tight track
* He may be a horse to bet and lay in running
* BAYAN is 5 and comes from a hurdles race
* There was one winner with that profile
* That horse had a more recent run than he does
* I could see BAYAN as a neutral profile
* What I liked about him is his Racing Post Ratings
* This season over hurdles they went 112 129 137 139 142
* That shows steady improvement
* It could mean he is well handicapped back on the Flat
* The other thing to bear in mind is he is drawn 12
* If My Draw hunch is right that could be a problem
* That relegates him to a saver at best but I prefer 2 others
* SIZZLER is a 4yo debutant with 9 runs
* Look at seasonal debutant 4 year old males with 7-8-9-10 runs
* There was a 5-21 record those winning last time were 2-6
* SIZZLER has a smart profile if his trainer gets him fit he can win
* CHOCALA is 4 and comes from a hurdles race
* 5 winners did that but all ran better than him last time
* CHOCALA didn't and that is a small concern
* It was 76 days ago though so I am not too worried
* Quite likely he has been laid out for this
Selection
CHOCALA 7/1 Each Way
SIZZLER 7/1 Saver
S a n d o w n 3.50
7/1 Same Difference, 9/1 Ardkilly Witness, 9/1 Godsmejudge
10/1 Burton Port, 10/1 Roalco De Farges, 10/1 Spring Heeled
12/1 Bury Parade, 12/1 Hadrian´s Approach, 16/1 Houblon Des Obeaux
16/1 Poungach, 16/1 Rigadin De Beauchene, 20/1 Midnight Appeal
20/1 Restless Harry, 20/1 Rose Of The Moon, 20/1 Summery Justice
25/1 Bally Legend, 25/1 Carruthers, 33/1 Emperor´s Choice
33/1 Opening Batsman.
* I rarely do the Bet365 Gold Cup Chase.
* Never been keen on the angles but it is a Scoop 6 race
* HOUBLON DES OBEAUX - Too much weight
* Only Tidal Bay won with this weight since The Dikler 1974
* I want at least 3 runs this season
* CARRUTHERS has only has 2 proper races
* RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE also looks short of runs
* RESTLESS HARRY is unlikely to stay this far
* BURY PARADE - Not keen on weight and absence
* He has 63 days off longer than every other runner
* He has 11st 10lbs more than every runner bar one
* Look at horses in this race with absence and weight issues
* Those absent a month or more with 11st or more were 0-27
* BURY PARADE has a lot to prove because of this
* SPRING HEELED fails that same 0-27 stat albeit not as badly
* Not sure we want a Cheltenham Festival winner though
* Horses winning at Cheltenham Festival are 0-11 in this
* Beau (2000) was 2nd at the Festival and won with 8lbs less weight
* With a career high mark it's not a profile I'm drawn to
* SPRING HEELED also may find the ground too sift
* OPENING BATSMAN - Little to recommend
* ROSE OF THE MOON broke a blood vessel in the National
* Lightly raced this year he would be a shock
* EMPEROR´S CHOICE has too much to prove on recent form
* HADRIAN´S APPROACH was 5th last year prepping at Cheltenham
* He tries to improve that 5th with a similar preparation
* Stamina is a problem. His Sire hasn't bred a winner past 3m yet
* Not convinced he is the sort to win a big field graded chase
* BALLY LEGEND was 4th at Cheltenham 10 days ago
* Not sure I like that profile enough
* MIDNIGHT APPEAL fell in the Scottish National
* Not an ideal preparation and he isn't well treated
* That said I don't have any strong negatives against him
* ROALCO DE FARGES was 2nd in the 2012 renewal
* He was subsequently injured and has had 4 runs this year
* I suppose he didn't really run well enough last time
* I would consider him despite that but he isn't safe
* SUMMERY JUSTICE has a sporting outside chance
* Worried about his form in big field handicaps
* If the ground goes soft I wouldn't rule him out
* The stable has gone quite cold though
* POUNGACH - Handicapped to go well but some doubts
* Has to prove he will stay this far
* He also has no form in chases that are not small fields
* No horse has won from a Novice handicap or otherwise
* ARDKILLY WITNESS has this against him
* He fails that coming from a Novice Chase
* I'd be wary of relying on that for 1 reason
* Unlike many Novices he has placed in a Graded handicap
* BURTON PORT unseated rider at the 2nd in the National
* Classy type my main problem is the usual one with him
* He is undersized and you don't really want that
* In a big Graded Handicap Chase it could be his Achilles heel
* GODSMEJUDGE - Good recent run gets him credit
* His last run was a welcome return to form
* I don't think he was fit before last time out
* The 2001 winner was 2nd in the Ayr Gold Cup and won this
* GODSMEJUDGE has to be a positive if he gets over Ayr
* Every horse is different and it was a hard race last time
* The worry is whether this comes too soon for him
* SAME DIFFERENCE was second in last years race
* He has 16lbs less weight this year so much be interesting
* His Flaw is he was in far better form before last years race
* Last year he won at Cheltenham and was 2nd in this race
* Few signs of recovery 4 runs this year all heavy defeats
* He's had impossible tasks though and may be laid out for this
* SAME DIFFERENCE could bounce back but we just don't know
Selection
SAME DIFFERENCE 11/1 Win Bet
ARDKILLY WITNESS 9/1 Saver Bet
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