Mathematician 1899
No Main Account bet
1 Optional Account bet
Today's Bet
Haydock 3.45
CHATEZ 10/1
Each Way
If we could just take a dozen quality races today and
spread them evenly through the rest of the week then
Racing could return to being a beautiful game again.
Non runners are again causing problems. I've looked
at quite a lot. It is an issue based message that starts
slowly. It doesn't get going for a few races so it looks
like a late developing message. I can't help that with
races constantly changing with irritating non runners
and I can't remember such a tame start to a Saturday
message and I only hope it gets going much later on.
O p t i o n a l A c c o u n t
We are just about level on the week and I don't
want to take any unnecessary risks with weather
conditions as they are. I have decided that there
was not a good enough case for a main acc bet.
Today's Bet
Haydock 3.45
CHATEZ 10/1
Each Way
I had 4 options today. There is no doubt that the
hardest of these 4 is CHATEZ but he's the biggest
priced horse. The Silver Bowl at Haydock is one
of my favourite races in May. It's a Forensic race
statistically because of many lightly raced types.
These were my other options for bets today
Goodwood 2.55 - WAHAAB 9/2 Win Bet
Love his chance. Could easily put him up but
as a seasonal debutant I'm relying on several
things I can't know about not least his fitness.
Curragh 3.20
MUSTAJEEB 6/1 Each Way
WAR COMMAND 7/1 Saver
Rightly or Wrongly I'm opposing Kingman in
the Irish 2000 Guineas with the above bet.
Catterick 5.45 - GOADBY 4/1
Cartmell 5.50 - LAIRD OF MONKSFORD 10/1
Each Way Double
This is a conditional Bet
Both races must have 5 + runners or no Bet
I wouldn't dream of advising this and there
must be a chance non runners kill this bet.
It's the sort of bet I would have given back
in the early days and I rarely do them now.
S u n d a y P l a n s
Can't promise but I think there will be a message
I am going to predict three things if there is one
It will have a Main Account Bet
It will cover a lot of different races
There may not be any previews though
F r i d a y 's S u m m a r y
Yesterday's message was quite a good one when you
consider so many non runners affected several races.
It was a nuisance to do and I was more than pleased
with a W W P L L W L P L W record from 10 previews.
There was only 4 losers in 10 bets and that included
horses beaten only a Short Head an a Neck. It wasn't
a high staking message but given the amount of races
and the changing conditions I think it was pretty good.
P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S
H a y d o c k 1.35
5/1 Glenard, 6/1 Entihaa, 7/1 Brockwell, 8/1 Esteaming
8/1 Masquerading, 10/1 Courtesy Call, 10/1 Noble Silk
11/1 Jonny Delta, 12/1 Asbaab, 12/1 Huff And Puff
12/1 Nearly Caught, 14/1 Argent Knight, 20/1 Theology.
This is a 2m Handicap and in May there are only
4 of these Class 2 races. No past renewals of this
so with a big field and no obvious stamina issues
I really can't offer anything statistically. I looked
at GLENARD and quite liked him but whether he
is the right sort for a race like this I couldn't say.
A few days ago I sent my horses of interest out
with 10 horses running well recently from poor
draws. ENTIHAA was on that list. His Latest run
at York was excellent as horses drawn between
1 and 7 over that Course and Distance are 0-102
in every race in the last 8 years so I think it was
a very good run. Few similar races means that
I can't know enough about his profile. I'd worry
he is bottom weight and out of the handicap as
there could be a class issue about ENTIHAA.
I made ESTEAMING as negative last time. Today
more a positive but if he wins he will be the first
horse by Sir Percy to win at 2 miles when softer
than good. NOBLE SILK has the same problem
by Sir Percy. I respect BROCKWELL but I prefer
the extra run this year GLENWARD has. I feel it's
possibly best to split stake a race I must guess in.
GLENARD 4/1 Win Bet
ENTIHAA 9/1 Win Bet
G o o d w o o d 1.50
2/1 French Navy, 9/4 Nabucco, 3/1 Windhoek
10/1 Baltic Knight, 12/1 Quick Wit, 20/1 Starboard
25/1 Auction.
I never do this Listed race as I don't see any angles
I like and I haven't got a clue what will win. I doubt
that BALTIC KNIGHT will stay almost 10f on soft. He
could be a place lay. Mind you Richard Hannon has
said he crying out for this trip and you will have to
offer 3 places on Betfair with just 7 runners so any
cold feet would be understandable. I still think he
will fail for stamina. Too big to lay for a win so the
riskier bet could be the place lay if your desperate.
Those wanting a selection might prefer NABUCCO
as he will relish the ground being on the soft side.
B e v e r l e y 2.00
3/1 Genius Boy, 7/2 Dubai Celebration
5/1 Thankyou Very Much, 11/2 Saint Thomas, 10/1 Artful Prince
12/1 Brockfield, 12/1 Maybeme, 12/1 Thatchmaster
14/1 Spin Cast, 25/1 Quite Sparky.
My Late Father who died recently was on one or two
mailing lists and every now and then he got a letter
inviting him to pay for Exclusive Inside Information.
Almost always a Scam one such letter arrived Friday
and this one promised a Free bet that runs in this race.
That horse is GENIUS BOY 7/4.
Always interesting to see how these run much as the
author of this particular letter has hardly taken many
chances. Because of the letter I had a look at the race
and decided that at the prices I would oppose the horse.
This is a very messy 10f handicap and it comes down
to whether I want to oppose GENIUS BOY down from
a 12 furlong race to a 10f race with just three runs.
* I looked at all horses going from 12f to 10f
* There are winners doing this with 4 runs
* Those like GENIUS BOY with 3 runs were 0-18
There is definite weakness in his chance. I wouldn't
see him as a negative as this race is littered with so
many unfit or out of form horses. There is a case for
ARTFUL PRINCE and THANKYOU VERY MUCH. I can
not get too excited about either. Force me to have a
bet in the race it would be THANKYOU VERY MUCH.
I'm split between each way or saving on Genius Boy.
Selection
THANKYOU VERY MUCH 6/1
Each Way
H a y d o c k 2.05
This is a Scoop 6 race and quite pleased I don't have
to try and sort it because it looks simply hideous. Not
worth doing. I had Muthmir a negative because of a
bad draw but he doesn't run. Go Far now has a poor
draw. My negative must be RUN WITH PRIDE as one
career start shouldn't be enough to win this contest.
No obvious selection. I'd want a recent race and two
runs this season. Barkston Ash is an option but might
find Stall 16 hurts him. Trader Jack has many positive
points but a poor strike rate and a trainer that leaves
me cold. I give OUT DO a big chance but my strategy
here will be to oppose Run With Pride either place
only or ideally in a match bet with Barkston Ash.
Selection
BARKSTON ASH to beat Run With Pride (Match Bet)
H a y d o c k 2.40
2/1 Hot Streak, 3/1 Sole Power, 7/2 Pearl Secret
6/1 Kingsgate Native, 14/1 Jack Dexter, 16/1 Justineo
25/1 Hawkeyethenoo, 25/1 Mirza, 33/1 Smoothtalkinrascal
40/1 Justice Day.
The Temple Stakes isn't a race I like to do statistically
as it has moved tracks several times over recent years.
* HOT STREAK is a 3 year old Male
* JUSTICE DAY is a 3 year old Male
* Male horses aged 3 are 0-18
* The best any of these could do was a third place last year
* The 18 losers included prices of 4/1 13/8 7/1 11/4 100/30 3/1
* Small field this year so their task will be easier
* No 3yo male has won this race since Dayjur in 1990
* I looked at races here with 8 + runners
* Bated Breath won this in 2012 from stall 2
* Since then we have 21 winners and this is their draws
* 11 12 9 8 11 3 7 9 6 14 10 10 7 13 9 9 6 4 11 10 8
* Only 1 of the last 21 winners were drawn 1-2-3
* PEARL SECRET hasn't been helped by Stall 1
* JUSTINEO hasn't got a good draw in Stall 2 either
* PEARL SECRET and JUSTINEO come from the Palace House
* 5 past winners did that but all were 1-2-3-4 in that race
* Neither PEARL SECRET or JUSTINEO managed that
* JACK DEXTER and HAWKEYETHENOO come from the Duke of York
* Horses coming from that race 10 days ago are 0-23
* It's not a good trial race which would worry me
* SMOOTHTALKINRASCAL has never run close in this class
* KINGSGATE NATIVE won last year as an 8 year old
* My record go back to 1980 and no horse aged 9 won
* The issue with him is whether he is too old now
* SOLE POWER won this in 2011 was 2nd in 2012 and 4th in 2013
* Every chance but you know the ground is going against him
* MIRZA looks a bit overpriced at 25/1
* I don't like exposed horses with 1 run this year
* Last years winner was one though so I can't rule him out
* He looks the best value in this race
Selection
MIRZA 20/1
Each Way
C u r r a g h 2.45
7/4 Maarek, 5/2 Slade Power, 7/2 Darwin
9/2 Viztoria, 12/1 Focus On Venice, 25/1 An Saighdiur.
* This is a Group 3 sprint over 6f.
* Horses aged 3 have a 0-25 record in recent years
* FOCUS ON VENICE has to be avoided as a 3yo
* MAAREK has just won the Duke Of York Stakes
* His 3 main rivals have 167 251 217 day absences
* You could argue he has a strong fitness advantage
* You could argue his last run may take some getting over
* I would prefer to side with the fitness argument
* 5 of the last 11 winners came from the Duke of York Stakes
* That tells me MAAREK has the safest profile
Selection
MAAREK 6/4 +
Win Bet
G o o d w o o d 2.55
9/2 Penny Drops, 6/1 Wahaab
7/1 Beau Nash, 7/1 Supplicant, 8/1 Wee Jean, 10/1 Mick´s Yer Man
12/1 Harwoods Volante, 12/1 Willy Brennan, 16/1 Nakuti
25/1 Lady Frances.
* This is a 3yo handicap over 7f
* There are 43 of these Class 2 races in May and June
* SUPPLICANT has 9 runs behind him
* Statistically he should have more runs this season
* I can't see him defying a mark of 105 with 1 run
* Horses rated 99 or higher won just 1 of the 43 races
* MICK´S YER MAN has a mark of 107 far too high
* Fillies won 8 of the 43 races
* Those that came from maiden races were 0-9
* Those that came from 6f races were 0-26
* PENNY DROPS is doing both those things
* PENNY DROPS is unsafe winning a 6f maiden after 5 runs
* LADY FRANCES didn't do enough last time
* HARWOODS VOLANTE could have ground problems
* I don't like him as he looks a bit too exposed
* Especially well beaten last time and no recent race
* NAKUTI doesn't come out well enough
* WILLY BRENNAN may not have stayed 7f last time
* There is a risk he won't get home here either
* I don't like his draw in Stall 1 either
* I can't match his profile to a winner either
Shortlist
* BEAU NASH has 10 runs but I like his profile
* Experienced horses are fine if running well last time
* I don't like that he has been raised for being beaten
* His overall profile is shortlistable tough
* WEE JEAN has a reasonable profile
* I see no reason why she can't win this race
* WAHAAB - Seasonal debutant but I love his profile
Selection
WAHAAB 9/2
Win Bet
H a y d o c k 3.10
9/2 Spinatrix, 5/1 Joyeuse, 6/1 Perfect Blessings
8/1 Gathering Power, 8/1 Hallelujah, 10/1 Blithe Spirit
10/1 Gracia Directa, 10/1 March, 14/1 Graphic Guest,
20/1 Indignant 25/1 Jillnextdoor, 33/1 Gladiatrix.
* This is a 6f Listed Race
* 12 renewals none were won by handicappers
* Horses coming from Handicaps are 0-32 in this race
* GATHERING POWER - INDIGNANT fail this
* JILLNEXTDOOR - BLITHE SPIRIT also fail this
* BLITHE SPIRIT also comes from 5f and no 3yo did that
* Here is an interesting Draw statistic
* There are 108 races at 6f here with 11 + runners since 2007
* Horses drawn 1 have a 0-102 record in these 108 races
* GRACIA DIRECTA is Drawn 1 and not for me
* The least experienced winner had 4 career starts
* That horse (2007) had Grade 1 form beforehand
* PERFECT BLESSINGS only has 2 runs and that worries me
* NIGHT SONG only has 3 and that is short of ideal
* Every past winner was rated at least 94
* GLADIATRIX rated 87 looks out of her depth
* GRAPHIC GUEST is rated lower than all 12 past winners
* Seasonal debutants won 2 of the 12 renewals
* Both were lightly raced 4 year olds
* HALLELUJAH is a 6 year old debutant so passed over
* This leaves just 3 runners
* SPINATRIX - JOYEUSE - MARCH
* These 3 all have some flaws of their own
* SPINATRIX is a 6 year old and just 1 past winner was 6
* That horse had 5 runs that year and SPINATRIX has just 1
* MARCH comes from 5f and no horse younger than 5 did that
* JOYEUSE drops from a Mile race which is an issue
* No 3yo managed that although a 4yo in 2009 did it
* It was a Classic race which sets the highest of standards
Selection
MARCH 8/1 Win Bet
JOYEUSE 4/1 Saver Bet
C u r r a g h 3.20
4/6 Kingman, 6/1 Mustajeeb, 6/1 War Command
7/1 Shifting Power, 20/1 Big Time, 20/1 Great White Eagle
20/1 Obliterator, 25/1 Michaelmas, 28/1 Johann Strauss
33/1 Prince Of All, 40/1 Fountain Of Youth, 66/1 Mandatario
200/1 Davids Park, 200/1 Dolce N Karama.
The Irish 2000 Guineas looks mouth watering this year with
another chance to see KINGMAN who was 3rd in England's
2000 Guineas finishing ahead of SHIFTING POWER in 4th
and WAR COMMAND in 9th. It's the right starting place as
10 of the last 11 winners came from this race. I knew that
I was on shaky ground opposing KINGMAN in the guineas
as I questioned his stamina but we got him beaten and it
is interesting he was in front a furlong out at Newmarket
and got beaten. I'm sure he stays a mile but I don't think
this is his best distance. Besides that this is softer ground
and how much stress will being Drawn 1 take from him.
The Draw is hard to judge. In 38 mile races since 2012
with at least 10 runners stall 1 has a 1-36 record. That's
not an advantage anyway. I'm opposing KINGMAN.
* SHIFTING POWER was 4th in the Guineas
* I Don't think he stayed then and may not today
* His Sire has had over 100 winners at a mile or more
* Those that raced in Class 2 or higher are 0-53
* I think he will fall short over a mile in a Group 1
* OBLITERATOR is very inexperienced with 2 runs
* I don't like him from a 9f Listed race
* I fancy two horses to offer the right bet in this race
MUSTAJEEB and WAR COMMAND
* WAR COMMAND was only 9th in our Guineas
* He clearly needed the run and was only beaten 5 lengths
* In 2012 his trained won with Power beaten miles at Newmarket
* Mastercraftsman (2009) won after being well beaten at Newmarket
* WAR COMMAND has to be seen as a positive
* MUSTAJEEB is very competitive on the ratings
* He comes here after an impressive win on soft ground
* It could come down to the draw here
* MUSTAJEEB is in Stall 2 and WAR COMMAND stall 10
* It could come down to the ground too
* MUSTAJEEB may well have the advantage if it rains
Selection
MUSTAJEEB 6/1 Each Way
WAR COMMAND 7/1 Saver
H a y d o c k 3.45
4/1 Bilimbi, 5/1 Zarwaan, 7/1 What About Carlo
9/1 Chatez, 10/1 First Flight 10/1 Red Stargazer
10/1 Shot In The Sun, 14/1 Braidley
14/1 Lyn Valley, 20/1 Hot Coffee, 20/1 Mawfoor
33/1 Almargo, 33/1 Riverboat Springs, 50/1 Grevillea.
* The Silver Bowl is a 3yo handicap over a Mile
* Horses starting 16/1 and more are 1-84 in this race
* No horse with the potential to win this should be be hidden
* I looked at handicaps here with 12 or more runners
* There are 21 races since 2011 and the winning stalls were;
* 10 10 11 9 3 13 7 9 6 1 2 8 8 9 12 3 5 11 6 15 10
* I'd be worried if having stall 1 or stalls 16 of 17
* Past winners had the following career starts
* 6 5 5 4 3 3 8 6 3 4 3 3 3 8 3 4
* This is how many runs this year and career runs winners had
* The 2013 winner had 2 this year and 6 career starts
* The 2012 winner had 2 this year and 5 career starts
* The 2011 winner had 1 this year and 5 career starts
* The 2010 winner had 3 this year and 4 career starts
* The 2009 winner had 1 this year and 3 career starts
* The 2008 winner had 2 this year and 3 career starts
* The 2007 winner had 2 this year and 8 career starts
* The 2006 winner had 1 this year and 6 career starts
* The 2005 winner had 0 this year and 3 career starts
* The 2004 winner had 3 this year and 4 career starts
* I'd worry about horses with 9 + career starts
* Only 1 of the last 24 winners had 9 + runs
* ALMARGO is out with 9 runs
* SHOT IN THE SUN has raced 10 times already
* She is a filly and fillies are just 1-30 since 1997
* No filly won from 7f or shorter this season
* SHOT IN THE SUN is not safe and I don't like her draw
* LYN VALLEY is a bit too exposed with 9 runs
* Seasonal debutants score badly
* BRAIDLEY is far too exposed to win first time out
* HOT COFFEE is a filly and fillies are just 1-30 since 1997
* The only filly had 6 runs and a race within 8 days
* HOT COFFEE with 4 runs is rejected and I don't like her draw
* GREVILLEA - You don't want a filly hammered last time out
* You need a good recent run this season
* Look at horses running this year beaten 5 + lengths last time
* There was a 1-75 record and that winner doesn't count
* He (Tobosa) came from the 2000 Guineas
* I'd avoid horses that ran badly last time
* RIVERBOAT SPRINGS didn't do enough last time
* I don't think he will stay judging by Sire Stats
* Horses coming from 7f or shorter had a 4-74 record
* Those with 4 or more runs were just 1-60
* SHOT IN THE SUN fails this
* MAWFOOR also fails this as well
* MAWFOOR though is like the 1 winner
* That was Shebebi last year who came from the same race
* MAWFOOR's profile is similar to last years winner
* That said he has 17lbs more weight than last years winner
* I don't think he is safe enough to risk
* ZARWAAN has 1 run this season and 3 career starts
* The 2009 winner had the same profile
* Worth bearing in mind ZARWAAN has 22lbs more weight
* ZARWAAN has 9st 7lbs and that is a worry in this race
* Horses with 9st 2lbs or more are 2-39 in this since 1997
* Both winners had far more experience than ZARWAAN
* Both had much more recent runs as well
* ZARWAAN has been absent 43 days now
* Only 1 of the last 17 winners won absent more than a month
* That horse came from a Grade 1 race as well
* I see some flaws in ZARWAAN's profile
* Not sure he will stay anyway
* I looked at his Sire Dutch Art
* I looked at all his runners over 8f + in Class 2 or higher
* Only 1 winner managed to win on ground softer than good
* That was a 4yo and no 3yo like ZARWAAN managed it
* WHAT ABOUT CARLO won an 8f handicap last time
* He has 1 run this season
* The 2 winners with the same profile had 3 career runs
* Those with 4 or more runs like WHAT ABOUT CARLO were 0-3
* Those 2 winners had less weight as well
* He is not far away but the weight of 9st 5lbs bothers me
* Horses with 9st 2lbs or more were 2-39 in this race
* None of them won last time out (0-9)
* Just one or two issues with an otherwise reasonable profile
* FIRST FLIGHT placed in an 8f handicap last time
* He has 1 run this season
* Similar horses with under 5 runs were 0-6
* Not ruled out but my angles say he wants another run
* BILIMBI has 1 run this year and 4 career starts
* He won an 8f handicap last time out
* I like his profile and his weight
* BILIMBI will relish the ground and is a big runner
* I just don't like the draw in Stall 1
* A horse drawn 1 won a 12 runner race recently
* None have even won since 2006 with 13 + runners
* Another little issue is he won a Class 2 last time
* Horses doing this were 1-25 that winner had 3 recent runs
* They otherwise won Class 3's or ran well but lost in Class 2's
* RED STARGAZER won an 8f handicap last time
* With 4 career runs and 2 this year I like that profile
* His weight of 9st 7lbs is a stumbling block
* Horses with 9st 2lbs or more were 2-39 in this race
* None of them won last time out (0-9) as he did
Selection
* CHATEZ is lightly raced and 2nd last time out
* His profile is a carbon copy of the 2012 winner
* My only worry is whether he stays well enough
* By Dutch Art his problems explained in Zarwaan's profile
* He has just beaten a short head on soft ground over 8f here
* I think it would be wrong to argue against him on that score
* CHATEZ other than that has a decent profile
CHATEZ 10/1
Each Way
H a y d o c k 4.55
5/2 Takreym, 7/2 Indy, 8/1 Art Official
8/1 Destiny´s Kitten, 10/1 Bretherton, 12/1 Captain Midnight
12/1 Mr Matthews, 14/1 Lincoln.
* This is a 3yo handicap over 7f
* There are 244 similar races in May and June
In this race last year we opposed the hot favourite
and got him beaten and I want to do the same this
year as TAKREYM fails the same angles as follows.
* Horses that come from 8f maiden races
* When having under 3 career starts they are 0-13
* TAKREYM fails this profile and I want to look elsewhere
If you look at horses like TAKREYM that won 8f maidens
last time out only 1 has won from 16 that tried and that
horse had 5 career starts. It is not a safe enough profile.
* DESTINY´S KITTEN won a 7f maiden last time
* Fillies doing this had a 4-26 record
* Those with under 6 career starts were 2-20
* Both winners had 2 runs that season
* DESTINY´S KITTEN only has 1 run
* Those like her with 1 run this year were 0-13
* DESTINY´S KITTEN's profile is not as safe as I'd want
* Her Draw in Stall 1 is no guarantee to help either
* ART OFFICIAL was beaten a long way in an 8f handicap
* I looked at horses that happened to with 1 run this season
* I found a predictably weak 2-69 record
* Both winners were absent just over 50 days
* Those that ran within 50 days were 0-64
* ART OFFICIAL absent 29 days fails that angle
* My statistics tell me not to select him
* CAPTAIN MIDNIGHT is NOT a negative
* I thought he may just struggle to win off 85
* I found 2 winners like him but they won off 70 and 72
* CAPTAIN MIDNIGHT is sired by Bushranger
* He hasn't yet had a soft ground winner beyond 6f
* BRETHERTON wouldn't be first choice
* I feel he has been too busy this season
Possibles
* MR MATTHEWS - His profile is acceptable
* Not keen on his sire whose record isn't good
* I oppose his sire's soft ground horses when aged 3 or more
* Difficult decision with him. Must shortlist him.
* INDY is a seasonal debutant with 1 run
* 9 horses had this profile finishing 2 6 7 10 W 5 2 10 7
* That winner won this race in 2011 and also had topweight
* I would pass INDY as statistically acceptable
* The 2011 winner did come from 7f though and he doesn't
* The 2011 winner had better ground as well
* LINCOLN is shortlistable
* I don't have a problem with him albeit a bit exposed
Selection
LINCOLN 12/1 Each Way
INDY 11/4 Saver Bet
As we come to the end of the message and prepare for
the Champions League final there was a bet that really
caught my eye this evening but it must be conditional.
Catterick 5.45 - GOADBY 4/1
Cartmell 5.50 - LAIRD OF MONKSFORD 10/1 +
Each Way Double
Conditions
* There must be at least 5 runners in the 5.45
* There must be at least 5 runners in the 5.50
These horses are highly unlikely to win but have
outstanding chances of being 2nd to hot favourites.
If they do manage that it will be at least a 5/2 winner.
****************************************************
****************************************************
Best Wishes
Guy Ward
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk
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