Mathematician 2308
Thursday May 5th
2 Bets today
0 Negative
6 Races Discussed
The Chester May meeting continues yet curiously
this is the only flat meeting in England and we are
being offered four National Hunt cards which feels
strange. Not that I'm bothered though. It makes a
change and I'm happy with a small handful of races
that interest me today regardless of what they are.
A Rare day when I go with 2 Account Bets
Mixed Feelings about this
The first one at 16/1 could be too much of a luxury
There is a high potential embarrassment factor here
The 2nd Bet could be unnecessary at short odds
Common Sense says expect Bet 1 to Lose
Eternal Hope says Bet 2 may pay for Bet 1
You never know though and I do like both
And I will be saying tomorrow
That you can't have big priced winners
If you never bet big priced horses
Today's Bets
Bet 1
Clonmel 5.30
SOCIETY RANGER 16/1
Each Way
1/4 The Odds 2 Places
16/1 Ladbrokes Hills Corals Bet365 Tote
16/1 Boyles Betfred Spbet VC Stan J
Today's first Bet is a very risky one
Caution is being thrown to the wind
Only 6 runners and Only 2 places
He really should not be winning at the weights
This is very speculative
But I think I have made a case for him
Bet 2
Wincanton 7.50
Split Stake Bet
£7 Win Bet LADY PERSEPHONE 2/1
£3 Saver Bet WIDOW ON THE RUN 3/1
This Bet is at much shorter prices
We are a hostage to fortune with prices
The market has dictated my stakes here
I'd have preferred Lady Persephone each way
Only 7 runners here
T o d a y s M e s s a g e
2 Bets Today
Chosen From These 3 options
Chester 4.20
£4 Each Way Percy Toplis 5/1
£2 Win Saver Melesina 9/2
Clonmel 5.30
Society Ranger 16/1 +
Each Way
1/4 The Odds 2 Places
Wincanton 7.50
£7 Win Bet Lady Persephone 2/1
£3 Saver Bet Widow On The Run 3/1
Daily Negatives
The Negatives Column has a mixed history
When these have been a regular daily feature
They have performed to a very high standard
When they have been inactive for so long
They have become an embarrassing albatross
Going to start them up again from today
One critic in particular has been lobbying me
To restart them rather than promise "Jam tomorrow"
I love his phrase but deep down know he is right
He has sent me some statistical data about them
I haven't read it yet as I can't open the file
I will read it when I get a spare few minutes
But I don't need to read it to know he will be right
One reason I have not prioritised them recently
Is they take time and add a bit of extra pressure
It is a second big decision to make alongside a bet
Sometimes family commitments can get in the way
I find myself with a bit more time at the moment
Last week my Partner quit her job
For the last 3 years I've taken her to work and back
It is with great relief I no longer have to do this
So I will use that time saved for the Negatives
And restart them from today onwards
And hope that we can finally get to taste that Jam
N e g a t i v e s
No Negative Today
I would have had one today
That was Water Willow in the 7.50pm Wincanton
But she was 6/4 earlier and is now 9/4
The market is rarely stupid
Not as easy as it looks to find short priced negatives
That don't drift out to unacceptable prices
Results of Negatives
22 correct bets from 29
Ascot Gold Cup
Order of St George (11/4) Bondi Beach (8) Max Dynamite (8)
Flying Officer (12) Simple Verse (14) Mizzou (16) Alex My Boy (20)
Big Orange (20) Clever Cookie (20) Litigant (25) Manatee (25)
Mille Et Mille (25) Moonrise Landing (25) Quest For More (25)
Pallasator (33) Scotland (33) Wicklow Brave (33) Father Christmas (40)
Fly With Me (40) Fun Mac (40)
I have very few races in the year I like to target
Mainly for my own pleasure rather than the account
I don't like having big bets in races I advise bets in
The Grand National was a race I wanted to target
There is one race I want to target at the moment
That is the Ascot Gold Cup run 6 weeks today
I want to try and engineer a big win in this years race
I spent time Monday afternoon on this race
Collating the sort of information I needed in advance
It got my juices flowing and I decided then
To try and win a lot of money on this one race
Doing a Daily column each day except Saturday
Purely about this race and the issues involved
Can't make any early decisions
There will be foreign raiders and supplemented horses
But we have 6 weeks from tomorrow
To disect this race completely and get the winner
And this will be a Daily Column about this one race
It will be like a very long preview made up of daily snippets
W e d n e s d a y s R e v i e w
I chose one of three options yesterday for the
main bet. I settled on AMILLIONTIMES as
an each way bet. He ran well in second place
just bumping into one horse too good for him.
No damage done on the bet. The other 2 bets
both won. I wasn't surprised Le Vagabond won
but he was too short. Kimberella won and he
was a bonus. Overall though the results were
pretty good all the way through the message.
P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s
U t t o x e t e r 2.00
7/4 Cottersrock, 9/4 Wotzizname, 6/1 Holbrook Park
6/1 Kit Casey, 12/1 Sarah Marie 14/1 Robert´s Star,
66/1 Bringewood Blue 66/1 Double Miss
200/1 Over The Bridge.
2m 7f Novice Hurdle
The market suggests a 2 horse race
I didn't see many I could shortlist anyway
SARAH MARIE was a clear negative
As a mare with just 1 hurdle run
If you look at Racing Post Ratings
The two market leaders have an edge
They have at least 13lbs in hand on those numbers
Before I looked at the race in any detail
I expected to Hate WOTZIZNAME
I expected to Love COTTERSROCK
With WOTZIZNAME it was just 1 lifetime start
A 6 year old with only one previous race albeit winning
COTTERSROCK is the same age
Yet has 8 runs and 5 over hurdles
He has Racing Post Ratings of 128 125 140
WOTZIZNAME'S profile was better than I hoped
Although similar once raced 6 year olds were 1-57
Very few were fancied and those that were did well
I came away knowing he could not be a Negative
I still prefer COTTERSROCK to him
But his profile whilst fine was not strong
I was surprised by that
It left me with the following conclusions
COTTERSROCK has to be the selection
But not as straight forward as I had hoped
And I should not be surprised if Wotzizname wins
Obviously this looks a suitable each way double race
But I shall resist that unpleasant thought
This is a win bet on COTTERSROCK
But I had expected it to be stronger than I discovered
Selection
COTTERSROCK 7/4
Win Bet
C h e s t e r 2.40
2/1 Western Hymn, 5/1 Fire Fighting
5/1 Gabrial, 6/1 Battalion, 6/1 Cannock Chase
6/1 Master Carpenter, 16/1 Top Notch Tonto.
The Huxley Stakes is a Group 3 race over 10f
There has been 16 renewals of this race
16 of the 17 winners were aged 4 or 5
16 of the 17 winners had under 18 career starts
Applying these statistics leads us to two horses
WESTERN HYMN
CANNOCK CHASE
Market leaders so no great interest
CANNOCK CHASE was 2nd in last years race
The ground beat him last year as it was very soft
I think he has every chance of winning this year
I would stake the race in this way
£5 Win CANNOCK CHASE 4/1
£5 Win WESTERN HYMN 11/8
Small Stakes Here
Not a significant race
Uttoxeter 3.30
7/2 Bertie Lugg, 5/1 Breezy Kin, 6/1 Milly Malone
13/2 Ballinalacken, 9/1 Earcomesthedream, 10/1 Steel Gold
10/1 Tisfreetdream, 12/1 Garde Ville, 12/1 Up Your Game
14/1 High Talk, 20/1 Squeeze Me, 25/1 Flamingo Beat.
I did think about doing this horrible 2m 7f handicap
I had 2 negatives and wondered if it was worth a go
In the end I decided it was too dangerous
My Negatives were these
Bertie Lugg
Milly Malone
With Bertie Lugg it is stamina
If I look at the offspring of Beat All over hurdles
When they race on Good to soft or softer
They have a 0-88 record running over 2m 6f and more
This suggests to me he may not stay
But if the ground dries out it could turn Good
That would undermine the statistic a bit
But I have to see him as a doubtful stayer
Milly Malone is my other negative
I can not match her to a winner
Not as a 10 year old Mare
Who has raced just once since June 2015
I don't fancy either of these horses
I could add further negatives
Look at every Handicap Hurdle in May since 2006
Run over any distance in any class of race
None of the winners were aged 13 or more
If I concentrate on handicap hurdles over 2m 2f or more
In April May June horses aged 13 or more are 0-70
Earcomesthedream would be rejected aged 13
Tisfreetdream would also be rejected aged 15
High Talk had a negative profile as well
The problem was I had nothing solid to latch on to
There are horses with long absences
That I couldn't rule out but couldn't commit to
BALLINALACKEN 4/1 each way was one option
But impossible to know how much I can trust him
So therefore it has to be No Bet
No Selection
C h e s t e r 4.20
4/1 Four Dragons, 9/2 Lostock, 5/1 Percy Toplis
6/1 Havelock, 7/1 Full Intention, 8/1 Melesina
10/1 Mehmas, 12/1 Redrosezorro, 14/1 Vona
16/1 Madam Dancealot, 16/1 She´s Rosanna
33/1 Hamidans Girl.
This is a 5f Maiden for 2 year olds
Here is an interesting Draw Statistic
Every 2 year old race at Chester
Every and Distance
Any Time of year
Any Race since 1997
2 year olds drawn 10 or higher
Have a 0-143 record at this track
Thats any race anytime don't forget for 2yo's
Today the 1st and 2nd favourites are drawn 10-12
No 2yo has ever won here since 1997 drawn high
Of course it may happen today for the first time
But with none doing it so far I can't bet any
FULL INTENTION is rejected drawn 12
HAVELOCK is rejected drawn 10
HAMIDANS GIRL is rejected drawn 11
She is an unraced filly
Unraced fillies have a 0-23 record in this race
MADAM DANCEALOT is an unraced filly
MELESINA is a once raced filly
She only recorded a Racing Post Rating of 64
Thats lower than I would want in a race like this
The Racing Post Ratings of past winners
Show the worst ever win won with a 74 rating
MELESINA needs to improve significantly
No filly has won beaten more than 5 lengths last time
SHE´S ROSANNA and VONA both fail this
REDROSEZORRO - Unraced male drawn 1
My only doubt is classier types from better stables
LOSTOCK - Unraced and considered
But very weak in the market
And trainer hinting he may need the run
Shortlist
FOUR DRAGONS has raced once before
Her Racing Post Rating was only 66
Thats a bit lower than I'd be happy with
The recent fillies that won managed 74 and 83
But she may have gone off too fast last time
And the horse that beat her looks smart
PERCY TOPLIS has ran twice before
He has yet to finish 1st or 2nd in either race
No male horse has won this with 2 or more runs
All 23 that tried failed so he is not like a winner
That said it was not a maiden he came from
It was a Novice which changes things
And he clearly went off too fast at Pontefract
He was clear at one stage and ran out of juice
No surprise if he runs these into the ground
MEHMAS - Unraced but very easy to like
The main worry has to be Stall 9
Has to be a saver. Could outclass these
Selection
£4 Each Way PERCY TOPLIS 5/1
£2 Win Saver MEHMAS 9/2
C l o n m e l 5.30
6/4 Escape Paradise, 2/1 Pillar, 5/1 Kilteery Pier
8/1 Bonfire Bank, 20/1 Society Ranger
25/1 Pemberton Snow.
3yo Claimer over 9 furlongs
These races are very rare
Very have been run during May
I would prefer at least 4 runs
I would want a recent race as well
I'd prefer horses beaten under 10 lengths last time
If those stats are applied to this race
Then only SOCIETY RANGER qualifies
SOCIETY RANGER may be an outsider
But I would consider him a potential winner
KILTEERY PIER comes from 5f to 9f
That is an extreme jump in distance for a young horse
This is an interesting statistic
January Feb March April May June July August
Any and every race over 9f or more both flat and Sabd
Horses coming from 5f races
Running in the previous 6 weeks
There is a 0-125 record with these horses
KILTEERY PIER fails this 0-125 record
Only 2 horses have ever done it
A Jim Bolger horse (Duaiseoir) November 2009
Another horse in September 2009 (Oeuf A LA Neige)
BONFIRE BANK is inexperienced with 3 runs
PEMBERTON SNOW has very poor numbers
PILLAR has 140 days off the track
If you look at 3yo Claimers in May since 2005
44 of the 46 winners raced within 6 weeks
Only 2 winners had long absences and both were fillies
PILLAR is a Male horse
No Male horse won absent more than 6 weeks
Only 31 tried but they were all beaten
PILLAR has this problem
And he has downgraded stables since his last run
ESCAPE PARADISE is an obvious danger
He has numbers good enough to win
His sire's longest winner came over 9f
That was with a horse that raced 2 days earlier
So I am presuming he didn't stay last time
That was 11.5 furlongs and on heavy ground
I'd excuse that last run but she's not a big horse
SOCIETY RANGER needs further investigation
Forgive her debut over 8f as a 2yo
Her sire's never had an unraced winner over that far
Her 2nd race saw him drop from 8f to 5f
That must have been hard
As must his second race going from 5f to 7f
Unrealistic to have expected much from him here
These were when outclassed in Maiden races
SOCIETY RANGER has raced twice as a 3yo
Ignore his 4th career start his 1st as a 3 year old
I made him a Negative that day at Leopardstown
That was Heavy ground over 10 furlongs
No horse sired by Bushranger
Has won on soft or heavy ground over that far (0-22)
SOCIETY RANGER then dropped from 10f to 7f
That must have inconvenienced him
That was a huge field at Gowran Park
A Much better race than this
SOCIETY RANGER was only beaten 5 lengths
For a 33/1 chance I felt he ran very well
With several excuses behind him
SOCIETY RANGER could be a threat here
SOCIETY RANGER really interests me
But at the weights she has a horrible task
PILLAR is a better fancied stablemate
The 140 day absence he has worries me
If you look at his trainer Adrian McGuinness
His record with absent horses isn't strong
His Flat runners on turf are 1-55 absent 90 +days
That winner was an older horse
His runners aged 2-3-4
Have a 0-55 record flat and sand absent 90 + days
I am going to commit to SOCIETY RANGER
Selection
SOCIETY RANGER 16/1 +
Each Way
1/4 The Odds 2 Places
W i n c a n t o n 7.50
2/1 Water Willow, 9/4 Widow On The Run
3/1 Lady Persephone, 10/1 Patronne, 12/1 Jambul Tree
25/1 Crazy Train, 25/1 Tricky Issue.
This is a 2m Mares Novice Hurdle
WATER WILLOW is only a 4 year old
I think she has a poor profile
If you look at all of these races in May
At every and any distance
No 4yo won from a Bumper like her
Inexperienced 4 year olds struggle anyway
Those with under 5 career starts had a 1-71 record
That only winner raced 4 days beforehand
I knew WATER WILLOW would come out badly
WATER WILLOW - Watcher her on video
Not taken by her to be honest
She is quite small which I do try and avoid
I just wanted a solid alternative
The problem is there is not one you can rely on
WIDOW ON THE RUN has an acceptable profile
I found 2 winners like her with 1 Bumper run
They did won over much further though
But I was not too worried with her profile
Much as she has not jumped a hurdle yet
Not over keen on the stable or relying on them
This horse was 3rd in a Soft Ground Bumper
I'd expect Hurdles and faster ground to improve her
I prefer WIDOW ON THE RUN to Water Willow
LADY PERSEPHONE has 4 hurdle runs
Poor Numbers do leave me underwhelmed
But 2 runs the ground beat her according to connections
Last time the 2m 5f trip may have beaten her
The sire hasn't had a winner over that far
One of my reservations is her pedigree
I really don't like the pedigree
I don't like horses dropping down 5f either
But she does have hurdling experience
She has 4 hurdle runs and her dangers have none
Alan King has always said she dislikes soft ground
LADY PERSEPHONE needs to be included here
Too many options for me
LADY PERSEPHONE each way at 1/4 the odds
This option is now gone as she is 2/1
I could Go Win Bet and saver on Widow On The Run
Or a straightforward win bet
Selection
£7 Win Bet LADY PERSEPHONE 2/1
£3 Saver Bet WIDOW ON THE RUN 3/1
****************************************************
****************************************************
Best Wishes
Guy Ward
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Check For Best Prices at http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/odds/horses
---------------------------------------------------------------------------