Saturday Jan 13th 2024


Account Bet


Warwick 3.00

£4.00 Each Way MY SILVER LINING 14/1

£1.00 Win Bet PERCUSSION 16/1-20/1

£1.00 Win Bet RAPPER 14/1-12/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5



Targeted this race for a bet
Thrown the kitchen sink at it
Slightly surprised at the end
Going with 3 of the outsiders
Percussion was my early bet
But the stable form is a worry
Rapper offers staking balance
My Silver Lining is a surprise
But similar horses up in class
Have scored well in this race



Warwick 3.00

9/2 Malina Girl, 7/1 Beauport, 7/1 Galia Des Liteaux
7/1 Guetapan Collonges, 8/1 Fontaine Collonges
9/1 Major Dundee 10/1 City Chief, 12/1 Percussion
14/1 Broken Halo,14/1 My Silver Lining, 16/1 Credo
16/1 Volcano, 20/1 Duc De Beauchene, 20/1 Rapper.

Classic Chase

3m 5f Handicap

Past winners of this race
Had the following chases

4 7 14 5 13 9 17
12 3 11 16 9 16 13

Horses with 18 + Chase runs
Have a 0-58 record in this race
They look too exposed to win
The following horses fail this

DUC DE BEAUCHENE
VOLCANO

BROKEN HALO is 9 years old
Fell on his only race this season
Don't expect he will be fit enough

MALINA GIRL a 7yo mare
Has lots to prove off topweight
Especially coming off a fall too

Go back to 2000
January to March
Handicap Chases
Run in class 2 or higher
Over 3m 3f and further
Horses aged 7
Over 5 chase races
Carrying 10st 10lbs or more
Have a weak 1-55 record
The following horses fail this

MALINAS GIRL
CITY CHIEF

Go back to 2007
January to October
Handicaps over 3m 1f +
Listed and graded class
Horses under 8
More than 10 chase runs
Beaten last time out
Carrying 9st 1lbs or more
Return a 0-77 record in them
MALINAS GIRL has this profile

Still the most likely winner

But not the biggest for 12 stone

CREDO is a 9 year old
No negative not first choice
Horses from the Tommy Whittle
Have never been 1-2-3 in this
Not convinced it's a helpful trial

Not safe on sire stats either

GALIA DES LITEAUX an 8yo mare
Has a lot of weight with 11st 10lbs
Horses with under 17 career runs
Carrying 11st 8lbs or more
Have a 0-16 record so far
The weight is her challenge

She also fails this statistic

Handicap Chases
Run over 2m 6f and more
Listed and graded races
Female horses
Under 13 career runs
Have a 0-19 record in them
GALIA DES LITEAUX fails this

FONTAINE COLLONGES a 9yo
She fell at the first at Sandown
Only 1 proper race this season
She did manage to win that race
But a mare with 1 run this season
Would be a red flag over this far
Comes back only 18 days later
May be in risk of bouncing here

She also fails a breeding stat
That some others fail as well

Horses sired by Saddler Maker
Running in Class 2 or higher
Running over 3m 2f or more
Have a 0-38 record so far
The following all fail this angle

FONTAINE COLLONGES
DUC DE BEAUCHENE
GALIA DES LITEAUX
GUETAPAN COLLONGES

GUETAPAN COLLONGES an 8yo
Fails the above breeding statistic
Otherwise seems a fair option
But he does have a lot of weight

BEAUPORT is an 8yo
Ran a good second at Sandown
That was over 3m and 4 furlongs
That was a smart run with 12 stone

What bothers me here

Horses under 9 years old
Coming from 3m 4f or further
Have a 0-27 record in this race
BEAUPORT fails this angle

Horses under 9 years old
Carrying 11st 8lbs or more
Have a 0-14 record in this
Not a strong angle to be fair
But the following all fail this

BEAUPORT
MALINAS GIRL
GALIA DES LITEAUX
CITY CHIEF

MAJOR DUNDEE a 9yo
Was beaten 33 lengths last time

Past renewals show
Horses from Class 2 or lower
Beaten over 16 lengths last time
Have a 1-40 record in this race
Those aged 9 or more are 1-27
Top class stable could overcome it
But questions after a heavy defeat


Shortlist

RAPPER ran well last time out
Never won in this class before
Never won off his current rating
But his numbers say he can do
Still unexposed with 12 chases
Running at his best time of year

PERCUSSION is a 9yo
Two good prep runs at Aintree
He should not be underestimated
The 2017 and 2020 winners
Both came from the Becher Chase
Handicapper has dropped her 5lbs
That could well be an overreaction

MY SILVER LINING an 8yo mare
Is going up 2 grades in class
He is one or only two runners
Going so far up in class today
But she is far from exposed
She is fit and has a light weight

This is interesting

Past renewals

Horses aged 8-9-10
Coming from class 3 or lower
Coming from under 4 miles
Absent more than 3 weeks
Carrying under 10st 12lbs
Under 16 lifetime starts
Under 11 chase starts
Finishing the race last time
Have a 3-5 profile in this race
They finished W W 3 Fell W
Winning in 2006 2011 2019

None were mares
No mare had tried
Not worried about that
Felt she had a sound chance


Selection

£4.00 Each Way MY SILVER LINING 14/1

£1.00 Win Bet PERCUSSION 16/1-20/1

£1.00 Win Bet RAPPER 12/1-14/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5

*******************************************************
*******************************************************