Mathematician 3346
Saturday Oct 5th
9 Previews
1 Account Bet
Account Bet
Ascot 3.10
KYNREN 5/1- 11/2
Each Way
1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5
Ran into an annoying problem
The horse shortened 7/1 to 11/2
Just after 9.00 am this morning
Somebody has had the same idea
There is a case for pulling the bet
It leaves a nasty taste in the mouth
But we have 5 places to consider
And I like him more than other bet
This really is a 1 possible bet day
Been covering this race all week
One of the few best profile horses
Highly frustrated losing the price
But he should be bigger later on
And rather than cancel the horse
Decided to proceed with this bet
If you think about it
If he loses or finishes placed
Then the price change doesn't matter
It only matters if the horse wins the race
If he does changing bets would be wrong
Today's Message
9 Previews
Redcar 1.45
Ascot 2.00
Gowran Park 2.05
Newmarket 2.15
Ascot 2.35
Ascot 3.10
Ascot 4.15
Longchamp 4.35
Ascot 4.50
Lots of very soft ground about
Unlikely to get a hat-full of winners
One of those Saturdays
Where only 1 bet on the day
Appealed as an account bet
The rest of it is
More fun play and frolics
Some complicated staking
Novelty £10 Bet
Ascot 2.00 - Stake Acclaim 10/1
Ascot 2.00 - Arecibo 12/1
x
Ascot 4.50 - Pendleton 6/1
Ascot 4.50 - Camacho Chief 8/1
4 x £2.50 Each Way Doubles
Like the above bet
The £10 could make up to £300
I love Pendletons chance
Despite being only a saver later
Mainly because of the lower draw
Arecibo is also highly interesting
He is in a split stake bet later on
In terms of the account
Despite the shortening price
There was really only 1 option
Ascot 3.10
KYNREN 6/1
Each Way
Sunday Message
Arc De Triomphe day
4 Meetings
England Ireland France
Future Betting Angles returns
Friday's Review
Standard 8 preview message
That Finished W L P L W L W L
We managed to get 3 winners
Unfortunately not the best bet
Mega Double looked a winner
For most of the race he she did
Traded as short as 1.15 to win
Matched even shorter to place
But the ground was desperate
That weight proved too much
She had nothing left at the end
We started with a winning bet
Two evening bets won and lost
They cancelled each other out
Both the Gowran Park bets won
Ascot had the weakest results
Some prices were hard to find
The message time is not ideal
Sent a time prices can change
Will need to have a look at that
Disappointed with my best bet
Otherwise quite competitive
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Redcar 1.45
6/4 Vega Magic, 11/2 Embolden, 7/1 Camouflaged
7/1 Gravity Force, 10/1 Duesenberg, Got The T Shirt
12/1 Sports Reporter, 20/1 Abbey Wharf, 20/1 Binyon
20/1 Dilithium, 33/1 Starbo, 50/1 Itojeh, 66/1 I'm Easy
66/1Twin Paradox.
2yo Novice (7f)
VEGA MAGIC sets the standard
Only had 1 career start so far
But a good debut and best numbers
There is a lot of dead wood in this
Over half the field appear unfancied
Two that are fail this breeding angle
Horses Aged 2
Sired by Dark Angel
Running on their debut
Running over 7f or more
On Good to soft or worse
They have a 0-53 record
CAMOUFLAGED has this problem
SPORTS REPORTER has this too
Would not risk either on their debut
Not on heavy ground over 7 furlongs
The dangers to the favourite
EMBOLDEN - 4 runs
GRAVITY FORCE - 2 runs
DUSENBERG - 2 runs
GRAVITY FORCE is drawn 12
Stuck out wider then the fancied horses
Redcar 7f races
Since 2014
Good to soft or softer
Horses aged 2
Drawn 10 or higher
Have a 0-63 record
GRAVITY FORCE fails this angle
Not sure how good that is
One or two won on faster ground
Some won before 2014 as well
But it's obviously no positive
EMBOLDEN is Richard Fahey
DUSENBERG is Richard Fahey
EMBOLDEN has 4 runs
I like the fact he has more experience
Not sure who the stable choice
EMBOLDEN is shorter in the market
EMBOLDEN's 4 runs
May count for a lot on heavy ground
His last run is excusable
Chester Nursery with 3 runs
He was one of the least experienced
He had Stall 9 to overcome that day
Hard to split the pair
Dont want to get mixed up
In any silly Fahey game playing
Playing it this way
Selection
£5 Win Bet EMBOLDEN 7/1
£4 Win Bet VEGA MAGIC 11/10-5/4
£1 Win Bet DUESENBERG 9/1 - 10/1
This means
EMBOLDERN becomes a bet at 3/1
The only ways we lose all our money
Gravity Force wins drawn high
One of the unraced Dark Angels win
One of the rank outsiders win
Not ideal but 3/1 does seem fair
Ascot 2.00
5/2 Dakota Gold, 11/2 Danzeno, Maygold
6/1 Tis Marvellous, 9/1 Stake Acclaim, 10/1 Intense Romance
14/1 Arecibo, True Mason, 16/1 Poetry, 25/1 The Cruising Lord
50/1 Reticent Angel.
Rous Stakes
Listed race over 5f
Run at Newmarket Pre 2011
Since then switched to Ascot
Open looking race
Almost every horse in the race
Has a recent run to fall back on
The Cruising Lord the one that doesn't
Almost every horse in the race
Has at least 12 career starts as well
Something all past winners had
POETRY the only one that doesn't (0-43)
Almost every horse in the race
Has raced enough recently to respect
RETICENT ANGEL the one that hasn't
None of the usual angles
Have opened this race up well
TIS MARVELLOUS has a chance
But comes from a poor trial race
All 20 lost from the Scarborough Stakes
The Best Trial race
Newbury
5f International sprint 14 days ago
The following winners came from there
1997 1998 2005 2007 2009 2013 2014 2015 2017
DAKOTA GOLD comes from this race
This puts him high up on the shortlist
He was always the potential selection
But decided to go in another direction
This is 5f
It is very soft ground
Wanted to see which horses
Had the best numbers on it
Racing Post Ratings
Lifetime runs
5f races only
Soft and Heavy ground
111 Stake Acclaim
107 Intense Romance
105 Arecibo
103 Maygold
101 Intense Romance
100 The Cruising Lord
99 Intense Romance
97 Stake Acclaim
95 Stake Acclaim
93 Arecibo
92 Tis Marvellous
91 Intense Romance
STAKE ACCLAIM is 4lbs clear
The best numbers in this race
Done under identical conditions
DAKOTA GOLD is not on the table
Has a rating of 104 on Good to soft
STAKE ACCLAIM may be value
Quite hard to judge statistically
As his latest race was in France
It was not his best recent run
But like his numerical dominance
ARECIBO also comes out well
He is quite a big price at 16/1
May appear to have a lot to do
But his numbers suggest not
The 2006 and 2012 winners
Also came from the Ayr Gold Cup
What swings it for me more
If you go back to the last 28 days
ARECIBO has raced 3 times
Thats more than any other horse
Selection
Small Stakes
£3 Each Way STAKE ACCLAIM 9/1 - 10/1
£2 Each Way ARECIBO 12/1-14/1
Gowran Park 2.05
9/4 Theatre Of War, 5/2 Cosmic Horizon, 7/1 Severus Alexander
8/1 Nobel Joshua, Patchouli, 12/1 Charlie Bit Me, 16/1 Majority Share
20/1 Leahman, Very Excellent, 22/1 Soloheadbeg, 25/1 Castlegrove
40/1 Van Meegeren, 66/1 Isosceles, 100/1 Bobby Cool
100/1 Colonel Lesley, Frozen Spring.
3yo Hurdle
THEATRE OF WAR sets the standard
Not by much but has the best numbers
12 career starts
2 hurdle races
That seems the right kind of profile
Past winners had these lifetime runs
10 12 11 13 8 13 11 7 9 10
Past winners had these hurdle runs
2 4 2 3 1 3 1 1 3 2
Every past winner
Had at least 7 lifetime starts
Those with fewer races
Have a 0-52 record in this race
RECENT REVELATIONS fails this
May not run as a reserve horse
SOLOHEADBAG fails this 0-52 angle
COLONEL LESLEY only has 3 runs
We know all 52 failed with under 7
VERY EXCELLENT fails this with 4 runs
Comes here hammered only 15 days ago
Hurdling debutants
Have a 0-49 record in this race
MAJORITY SHARE fails this
SEVERUS ALEXANDER also fails this
NOBLE JOSHUA another hurdling debutant
Who comes here well beaten last week
COSMIC HORIZON is 2nd favourite
This is his hurdling debut as well
Failing the above 0-39 statistic
COSMIC HORIZON is unsafe
This is his hurdling debut
He is sired by Excelebration
The sires hurdlers
Have a very modest 1-68 record
Those running on softer ground 0-28
Those with under 3 hurdle runs are 0-34
SOLOHEADBAG shares the same sire
The flaw in these arguments
COSMIC HORIZON was smart on the flat
Provem to have raw ability
So if winning I wont be surprised
But on her pedigree not for me
What you need here
7 or more career starts
Previous hurdling experience
CHARLIE BIT ME has this profile
Not overkeen on his pedigree
Was 33/1 behind Theatre of War last time
Shortlist
LEAHMAN 16/1
PATCHOULI 7/1
THEATRE OF WAR 5/2
LEAHMAN has a sound profile
But he was not much good on the flat
Never won or placed under any code
Clearly needs a lot of improvement
PATCHOULI has 1 hurdle run
Worrying he pulled up in that race
But that was done as a precaution
She was a 6/1 chance on her debut
In the same race as Theatre Of War
Must factor in she is a filly as well
THEATRE OF WAR has a good profile
Mirrors many past winners
Has the best hurdles numbers too
Most likely winner
I would argue even at 5/2
Can you find 3 horses to beat him
My preference
THEATRE OF WAR each way 5/2
But the 5/2 has now gone
I think it will be available later
But because it is not right now
Staking him as a win bet and saver
Selection
Option 1
THEATRE OF WAR 9/4- 5/2
Each Way
Option 2
£9 Win Bet THEATRE OF WAR 9/4
£1 Win Bet PATCHOULI 8/1
I do prefer Option 1
As I think stamina is unproven
But because there is no 5/2
Officially choosing option 2
Newmarket 2.15
13/8 Under The Stars, 7/1 Lambeth Walk, 10/1 Bettys Hope
12/1 Emten, 14/1 Angel Grey, Bond's Boy, 14/1 Indian Creak
14/1 Intimate Moment, 16/1 Bushtucker Trial, Mild Illusion
20/1 Keep Busy, Silver Start, 25/1 D Day, Seraphinite,
33/1 Commanche Falls, Don't Stop Dancing, One Night Stand
50/1 Craigburn, No Mercy, Solemn Pledge, 66/1 Bavardages
66/1 Ebony Adams, 66/1 Trevie Fountain, 100/1 Acquire
100/1 Love Not Money, 100/1 Uncle Sid, 200/1 Flashy Flyer
250/1 Hot Date.
Tattersalls Auction Stakes
2yo Sales race over 6f
Shortlisting 2
The Numbers horse
The Profile horse
Racing Post Ratings
UNDER THE STARS is miles clear
Racing Post Ratings 104 104 106 108
The nearest danger to those figures
The Lambeth Walsk who ran to a 96
UNDER THE STARS is 12lbs clear
That is why She is a short price
The statistic she fails
Horses running within 2 weeks
Have a 0-27 record in this race
4 Past renewals
All 4 shared this profile
Colt or Filly
Absent over 2 weeks
Running within 90 days
Between 3 and 7 career starts
Beaten under 5 lengths last time
Coming from Class 2 or lower
Only 1 horse shares this profile
ANGEL GREY from Andrew Balding
Shortlist
UNDER THE STARS 7/4
ANGEL GREY 16/1
Don't want to take a short price bet
Despite positives In a massive field
ANGEL GREY the best profile horse
Do not have an each way bet either
Especially if low numbers are wrong
I don't see me having a bet here
If I do it could be the match bet
Bond's Boy has raced only once
If he was paired up in a match bet
I would probably back his opponent
For message purposes
Split staking the original plan
The numbers horse
The profile horses
Selection
Small Stakes
£6 Win Bet ANGEL GREY 16/1
£4 Win Bet UNDER THE STARS 13/8- 7/4
Ascot 2.35
2/1 Morando, 7/2 Faylaq, 6/1 Sextant
6/1 Wells Farhh Go, 8/1 Raakib Alhawa
8/1 Vivid Diamond, 11/1 Surrey Thunder
Cumberland Lodge Stakes
12f Group 3
Not a nice frame with 7 runners
FAYLAQ ran only 10 days ago
Horses running within 2 weeks
Have 0-34 record in this since 1997
That is a negative about his profile
MORANDO is a 6yo
None have won since 2005 now
The only 6yo winner in 22 years
Statistically his age is a problem
And he has the longest absence
Going to oppose these horses
SURREY THUNDER is rejected
Doubt he will get the 12f at Ascot
VIVID DIAMOND is also opposed
3 year olds are best with 4-8 runs
She is a filly and already has 11
Shortlisting 3 horses
SEXTANT
WELLS FARHH GO
RAAKIB ALHAWA
Room to dutch the bet
Selection
Small Stakes
£6.50 Win Bet SEXTANT 6/1
£2.00 Win Bet WELLS FARHH GO 5/1
£1.50 Win Bet RAAKIB ALHAWA 7/1
Ascot 3.10
11/2 Raising Sand, Ripp Orf, 7/1 Bedouin's Story
8/1 Casanova, Kynren, 10/1 Battered, 12/1 Escobar
14/1 Makzeem, 14/1 Summerghand, 16/1 Silver Line
16/1 So Beloved, 20/1 Qaysar, 25/1 Cold Stare
25/1 Lake Volta, Remarkable, 33/1 Greenside
33/1 Keyser Soze, 40/1 Raydiance.
Challenge Cup
7f Handicap
18 Horses Declared
All previous 8 winners
Shared the following profile
Male horses
Aged 3-4-5-6
Between 8 and 28 career runs
Running within the last 8 weeks
Carrying less than 9st 10lbs
Rated between 97 and 105
Coming from Class 2 or higher
Beaten last time out
Not by more than 10 lengths
5 Horses
Share this best profile
ESCOBAR 10/1
BEDOUIN'S STORY 7/1
KYNREN 7/1
KEYSER SOZE 25/1
COLD STARE 25/1
September and October
Similar 7f Handicaps run
With more than 10 runners
There are 47 of these races
Horses aged 3
Under 6 career starts
Have a 0-20 record
CASANOVA fails this statistic
He is a 3yo with 5 career starts
None have won with under 6 runs
If you look at 3 year olds like him
Who drop down from mile races
They have a modest 1-40 record
That winner had 14 career starts
And also raced just 7 days before
CASANOVA has an unsafe profile
Horses aged 7 or more
Have a miserable 2-116 record
Those absent over 16 days
Have a 0-67 record in these races
The following horses fail this
SO BELOVED
GREENSIDE
RAISING SAND
Horses aged 7 or more
With over 9st weight
Have a 0-40 record
RAISING SAND fails this
47 similar races show
Horses with 9st 10lbs or more
Have a 0-24 record in them
RAISING SAND also fails this
No horses aged 6 or more
Won absent more than 33 days
REMARKABLE fails this angle
MAKZEEM fails this angle
QAYSAR will need a career best
LAKE VOLTA is too exposed for a 4yo
His numbers have dipped this Autumn
KEYSER SOZE is best on the All weather
Lacks positives not easy to see winning
RAYDIANCE was hammered yesterday
SUMMERGHAND has 30 runs
More than all past winners of this
He also has to come from a 6f race
His profile is not as bad as it looks
But all 30 career runs were over 6f
He has never raced beyond that yet
He has never won in this class (0-12)
Never won off his current rating
SILVER LINE is down in distance
Doesn't have much form on soft
He has raced just 3 times in 2019
That would worry me for a 5yo
Classt type but on very soft ground
Lack of runs and weight may hurt
RIPP ORF is a talented 5yo
He has never won off his rating of 96
He is 0-9 racing off ratings of 94 or more
He's never won on soft ground either
But he was 2nd in this race last season
He did have a much shorter absence
His course and distance form
All coming in big fields as well
Shows an excellent 4 5 2 W 3 W 2 record
What worries me most about him
He needs a career best on soft ground
Having not raced in the past 4 weeks
If you look at those 7 Ascot races
He was drawn 26 15 16 18 14 16 13
RIPP ORF is drawn much lower in stall 8
5 Horses
Share this best profile
ESCOBAR 10/1
BEDOUIN'S STORY 7/1
KYNREN 7/1
KEYSER SOZE 25/1
COLD STARE 25/1
ESCOBAR is an exposed 5yo
Passes the best basic profile for this
All his wins are on faster ground
So are most of his best numbers
He is a hold up horse
Never won in a field bigger than 8
Not convincing enough to select
COLD STARE is a 4 year old
Passes the best basic profile for this
Similar races show
Horses aged 4
Coming from 6f races
Have a modest 1-37 record
Not convinced he did enough last time
Final Shortlist
BATTERED 9/1
BEDOUIN'S STORY 7/1
BATTERED is a 5yo
Has a recent run and soft form
Could win this on his 2017 form
But only 4 runs since that year
Clearly had a lot of problems
Not sure if this will come too quickly
Happily consider him for a saver bet
BEDOUIN'S STORY is a 4yo
He was my Cambridgeshire pick
But was a non runner last week
He shares the best profile for this race
Likes soft and has won on it over 7f
Two career bests in a row now
One problem is no course form
Stall 3 may or may not be helpful
The last 6 winners were drawn 8 +
One other concern I have about him
He has raced just once in 70 days now
KYNREN has a big chance
Passes the best basic profile for this
Consistency has not helped him
No wins in this class or off his mark
But we have 4 place s available
His recent Racing Post Ratings
Are 108 106 105 107 105
Suggesting he can win this raced 101
His last rating of 108 was a career best
5 runs this year
Each of the seriously good
Ayr 21st September
Last time out
I made him an negative
He had raced only once in 94 days
He was carrying a big weight as well
Combine that he still ran a career best
York 22nd August
Made him a negative
Trying to win a Class 2 absent 64 days
Still finished 3rd in a large field
Ascot June 19th
Royal Hunt Cup
He was badly drawn in Stall 3
First 4 home were drawn 21-18-32-25
Still finish a very smart 5th here
Winning his side of the draw easily
Ascot May 11th
2nd in a big Ascot field
Only beaten by Cape Byron
Who ran in a Group 1 race afterwards
Doncaster May 30th
Lincoln Handicap
Finished an excellent second
Failing a 0-139 draw statistic too
He has some brilliant runs
In very decent big field handicaps
When he has been disadvantaged
Either by bad draws or absences
Gives the impression
That the handicapper has his measure
But I dont think he does
Feel he has been luckless at times
And overachieved facing tough asks
The Drop to 7f
I am hoping wont be a problem
On very soft ground today
It may be an advantage
If he runs his race
And he shares the same profile
As the last 8 winners of this race
He could get the win he deserves
Selection
KYNREN 11/2-6/1
Each Way
Ascot 4.15
7/2 Di Fede, 11/2 Dandhu, 6/1 Beauty Filly
8/1 Red Starlight, 10/1 Lyzbeth, Miss Celestial
10/1 Muchly, 12/1 Jadeerah, 12/1 Tapisserie
14/1 Blizzard, 16/1 Excellent Times
20/1 Shepherd Market.
7f Listed race for fillies
Used to be the October Stakes
Change of name but same race
Statistics demand a 3 year old
3yo's have won 17 of the last 18
Horses aged 4 or more are 1-80
I am opposing the older horses
DANDHU is a 3yo
Has the highest official rating
But 153 days off since the Guineas
Could not trust him sired by Dandy Man
LYZBETH makes no appeal
Fewer runs this year than the others
Ascot 7f races
Since 2014
Under 14 runners
Horses drawn 10 or higher
Have a poor 1-71 record
TAPISSERIE fails this
Ascot 7f races
Since 2011
Under 14 runners
Horses aged 3 or more
Drawn 10 or higher
Have a poor 0-51 record
TAPISSERIE also fails this
JADEERAH is rated too low
Looks the stables 2nd string
Shortlisting 2 horses
MUCHLY
MISS CELESTIAL
Selection
Small Stakes
£2.50 Each Way MUCHLY 12/1-14/1
£2.50 Each Way MISS CELESTIAL 12/1-14/1
Longchamp 4.35
5/4 Dee Ex Bee 3/1 Call The Wind 9/2 Way To Paris
10/1 Holdthasigreen 12/1 Falcon Eight 14/1 Cleonte
16/1 Who Dares Wins 20/1 Mille Et Mille 20/1 Funny Kid
33/1 Line Des Ongrais
Prix Du Cadran
Group 1 race (2m 4f)
Covered this race Friday
No need to repeat the full preview
Negatives
10/1 Holdthasigreen
12/1 Falcon Eight
16/1 Who Dares Wins
20/1 Mille Et Mille
20/1 Funny Kid
33/1 Line Des Ongrais
DEE EX BE is quite a short price
Not convinced about his chances
Not entirely certain to get home
Shortlisted 3 Each Way Options
WAY TO PARIS
CLEONTE
CALL THE WIND
Selection
CALL THE WIND 4/1
Each Way
Ascot 4.50
11/2 Came From The Dark, 6/1 Pendleton
7/1 Celsius, 8/1 Texting, 9/1 Alaadel, 10/1 Camacho Chief
11/1 Saaheq, 12/1 Erissimus Maximus, 14/1 Blue De Vega
14/1 Call Me Ginger, 14/1 Han Solo Berger, 16/1 Spoof
16/1 Tawny Port, 20/1 Mercenary Rose, 25/1 Pettochside
20/1 Quench Dolly, 40/1 Teruntum Star.
5f Handicap
Obviously this is a lethal race
Experimental preview
Aiming to get a shortlist
Based on the race history
5 Previous renewals
They all matched this profile
Male horses
Aged 3-4-5-6-7
Running within 7 weeks
Coming from Class 2-3-4
Beaten under 7 lengths last time
2 + runs in the last 12 weeks
Over 12 career starts
Drawn in stall 4 or higher
All 5 winners had this profile
The following horses match this
ALAADEL 11/1
SPOOF 20/1
HAN SOLO BERGER 25/1
BLUE DE VEGA 20/1
CAMACHO CHIEF 9/1
Happy if any of the 5 win
Have to guess from here
Obviously not staking 5 horses
SPOOF is usually resistible
HAN SOLO BERGER up in class
BLUE DE VEGA has won over 5f
Not on this ground though
ALAADEL has 3 runs in 2019
Not much for a 6 year old
CAMACHO CHIEF 9/1
Plenty of weight
But there are 4-5 places
Solid classy form on soft at 5f
I want a saver
PENDLETON is that horse
He does not match the right profile
He has never raced over 5f before
But he looks very well handicapped
Excuses last time drawn 25 of 25
Selection
£4.25 Each Way CAMACHO CHIEF 9/1
£1.50 Win Saver PENDLETON 7/1
1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5
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