Mathematician 3347
Sunday Oct 6th
4 Previews
0 Account Bet
1 Highlighted Bet
Highlighted Bet
Tipperary 1.30 - SUNCHART 6/4 - 7/4
Kelso 2.50 - KAIZER 2/1
Each Way Double
Today's Message
Arc De Triomphe day
The only Longchamp preview
The other races not interesting
Battash spoils the Prix L'abbaye
Heavy rain today
Going to get a serious soaking
Kelso and Uttoxeter in particular
Ground and race changing rains
Feel today is just Consolidation
I'm not taking too many chances
Therefore only the 4 Previews
Tipperary 1.30
Tipperary 2.00
Kelso 2.50
Longchamp 3.05
Tipperary 1.30
Some interesting angles here
Suggest 2 horses may dominate
Had different staking options
Decided to pick Sunchart here
First leg of an each way double
Tipperary 2.00
AUSSIE VALENTINE 14/1-16/1
Each Way
Difficult but interesting
Slightly surprising 8yo selection
But good value in an open race
Kelso 2.50
KAIZER 2/1-9/4
Win Bet
Some amazing angles here
Not sure if they will work or not
Not sure how far I can trust him
But his biggest dangers here
Fail some pretty big statistics
2nd favourite fails a 0-48 stat
3rd favourite fails a 1-213 stat
4th favourite fails a 0-135 stat
5th favourite never ran before
6th favourite fails a 0-57 stat
Kaizer is not the good thing
Those numbers make him look
But he has to be the selection
And he will be the fittest horse
With 8 runners decided to bet
Him in an each way double bet
Todays Highlighted Bet
Tipperary 1.30 - SUNCHART 6/4 - 7/4
Kelso 2.50 - KAIZER 2/1
Each Way Double
Used on the account
Reserved for unorthodox bets
France
Longchamp
3.05 Enable 8/13
4.30 Battash 5/6
Many will want to see Enable win
Many believe that she is going to
But if you look at all the numbers
Battash is simply more dominant
Over his opponents than Enable
Yet Battash 5/6 is the better price
Most prefer Enable and Dettori
She's more butter wouldn't melt
But the numbers and prices say
Battash may be the better option
Despite a far darker reputation
Simply on numbers and prices
Battash does look a better bet
You could have the win double
£1 Double gets you £2.96 back
Not suggesting you do this bet
But if you are in the Enable cult
This bet might appeal to some
Saturday's Review
Really strong Saturday message
Had a main account bet winner
KYRNEN 5/1 won heavily backed
Annoying we missed best prices
But we made the correct decision
Rather than flip flop at last minute
This northern owners syndicate
Was at least jointly responsible
For the best prices being shaved
I do know this as I received a text
Got after-timed just after he won
We finished W P L P L W W P W
Fine start with Embolden winning
Arecibo placed in the 2nd preview
The £10 stake in that novelty bet
Returned somewhere around £48
Theatre of War was disappointing
Had 2nd place booked then fell
Stats worked perfectly well there
Shortlisted the gambled outsider
But rejected him as the selection
Mid message was rather low key
Both Muchly and Miss Celestial
Found a place and made a profit
Placed each way in the Cadran
Pendleton nicely finished it off
Saturdays always very hit + miss
No point crowing about yesterday
Last weeks was a mixed message
The week before was a disaster
Yesterdays was a happier effort
Next week will be anyone's guess
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Tipperary 1.30
9/4 Sunchart, 11/4 Dawn Patrol, 6/1 Classify
6/1 Sacramento, 7/1 Delphi, 12/1 Memorabilis
14/1 Dark Voyager, Townes, 16/1 Red Kelly
20/1 Sky God, 33/1 Summer Pearl
100/1 Craic Eile, Mustang Bullitt.
2yo maiden (9f)
This is the only maiden
Run at this track over 9f
At any time of year
The past renewals show
Unraced horses are 0-26
Give this is a long distance
These are 2yo's on the soft
Happy to ignore the debutants
DAWN PATROL is unraced
Aidan trains this Gallileo colt
But first time out looking elsewhere
DELPHI same sire same trainer
Rejected as well for same reasons
CLASSIFY is also unraced
Stall 1 is the worst drawn at 9f here
If you look at his sire Najef
His debutant record is regressing
Don't expect him to win drawn 1
TOWNES - Unraced may not stay
RED KELLY didn't do enough last week
DARK VOYAGER a long term prospect
MEMORABILLIS has raced before
Looks down the stable pecking order
Shortlist
SUNCHART 13/8- 7/4
SACRMANENTO 5/1
Both nice prospects
Quite difficult to split them
Could bet one save on the other
Could go for the each way bet too
It was close but went this way
Selection
£8.50 Win Bet SUNCHART 6/4- 7/4
£1.50 Win Bet SACRMANENTO 7/1
Tipperary 2.00
7/2 Askerana, 4/1 Cyrus Dallin, 6/1 Ideal Pal
7/1 Insane Bolt, 8/1 Dare To Flare, 8/1 Onlyhuman
10/1 Aussie Valentine, 10/1 Breaking Story
10/1 Master Speaker, 12/1 Great Grey
14/1 Art Of America.
9f Handicap
Not an easy distance for stats
But wanted to consider this race
ASKERANA one of the reasons
She is a 3yo filly
She runs in a soft ground handicap
Having had only 1 previous race
August to December
Handicaps on Grass
Any distance
Any Class
Fillies aged 3
Just 1 career start
Have a 0-31 record in them
ASKERANA looks inexperienced
ART OF AMERICA is out of form
Hammered recently over hurdles
BREAKING STORY is a 3yo
He has raced just once in 160 days
Unlikely to be enough to win this
GREAT GREY is a 4yo
Hammered in a better race last time
Had been running ok before that
Could bounce back but his last run
Ribs him of the momentum he had
DARE TO FLARE is drawn 1
Tipperary 9f races
7 or more runners
SInce 2011
Horses aged 3 or more
Drawn in stall 1 are 0-47
There is a sharp early left hand bend
Horse drawn 1 often get cut across
INSANE BOLT doesn't appeal
Might not have the stamina here
Seemed to run of petrol last time
CYRUS DALLIN is an exposed 5yo
Unsafe profile coming from a 7f race
Can not match him to any winners
Never won off a rating this high
His best numbers are over 7 furlongs
MASTER SPEAKER is a 9yo
Beaten 9 lengths 8 days ago
Has a 2-63 strike rate on turf
Need more for a horse that old
ONLYHUMAN has topweight
He has some very smart numbers
You could forgive him his last race
When drawn 1 of 25 at the Curragh
But he was tailed off in last place
And similar races show
Horses aged 6 or more
Absent more than 34 days
Carrying 9st 9lbs or more
Have a 0-2 record in them
His weight and absence a worry
His best career numbers
Do come earlier in the season
Did his last run suggest
He may have had enough this year
IDEAL PAL a 3yo with a recent run
He is very exposed for a 3 year old
What worries me about his chance
He has won handicaps off 53 and 70
Today he faces a tough mark of 85
His career Racing Post Ratings
Show 19 of his 20 lifetime starts
Were ratings of only 83 or lower
AUSSIE VALENTINE is an 8yo
He is fit and running good numbers
He has a good record at 9f here
Finished 3 W 2 W in 4 races here
He was 3rd in this race last year
Races off a 5lbs lower rating now
Surprise to select a horse his age
But short of better options here
Selection
AUSSIE VALENTINE 14/1-16/1
Each Way
Kelso 2.50
11/4 Kaizer, 3/1 Highway Companion, 5/1 Wax And Wane,
6/1 Theflickeringlight, 8/1 A Ladies Milan, 10/1 Strong Steps
16/1 Tailspin, 40/1 Refer To Rory, Wheelbahri.
2m Novice Hurdle
WAX AND WANE looks wrong
August to December
Novice Hurdles
Over any distance
Horses aged 4
Previous Flat form
Absent more than 166 days
No previous Graded form
Have a horrible 1-213 record
213 tried
Only Gibbs Hill (Nicky Henderson)
Managed to win and that was a small field
WAX AND WANE shares this 1-213 profile
This means we are opposing him
HIGHWAY COMPANION is a 5yo
Comes from a bumper last season
There are horses winning like him
Just wonder given his sire Milan
Whether he may want a bit further
This is a quirky stat
Hurdlers debutants
Sired by Milan
Running in Novice Hurdles
Over 2m 2f or shorter
Those coming from bumpers
Beaten in that bumper race
Have a 0-48 record in them
HIGHWAY COMPANION matches this
May or may not be relevant
But not going to select him
THFLICKERINGLIGHT is also unsafe
She is a mare coming from a bumper
These types do occasionally win
But she fails a variation of this stat
September to December
Novice Hurdles
Over any distance
Mares aged 5
Coming from a bumper
Beaten last time out
Have a 2-143 record
On ground good or softer
All 135 that tried were beaten
THFLICKERINGLIGHT Has this 0-135 profile
STRONG STEPS is a 7yo
September to December
Novice Hurdles
Over any distance
Horses aged 7 or more
No hurdling form
Over 22 career starts
Show a 0-57 record
STRONG STEPS (55 runs) fails this
A LADIES MAN is unraced
Might pop up but not for me
By process of elimination
KAIZER has to be the bet
Unusual profile
As a 4yo
Running 7 days ago on the flat
He won a Class 6 handicap
Hardly the strongest of races
But he has had a hurdle run before
Racing Post Rating of 113 that day
That entitles him to go close
3 Flat runs since September
He has to be the fittest horse
Not sure how safe the profile is
But in light of the negatives
He looks the sensible selection
Selection
KAIZER 2/1
Win Bet
Longchamp 3.05
8/11 Enable, 6/1 Japan, 7/1 Sottsass
10/1 Ghaiyyath, Magical, 14/1 Waldgeist
33/1 Blast Onepiece, Fierement, 50/1 French King
66/1 Kiseki, Nagano Gold, Soft Light.
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
Paul Kealy in the Racing Post
Says that opposing Enable here
Is an exercise at Clutching Staws
Thats overplaying it a bit
But despite her negative angles
She is easily the most likely winner
The Age stats are against her
Horses aged 5 or more
Won just 2 of the last 40 Arc's
That was back in 1988 and 2002
38 of the last 40 winners
Were aged either 3 or 4 years old
5 year olds
0-46 in this race since 2003
1-58 in this race since 1996
Quite a worrying Arc record
The counter argument
How many of those 5 year olds
Are in the same class as Enable
She is probably the best that tried
In a small field
With a horse as classy as her
Using age statistics is very risky
WALDGEIST is also a5yo
No benefit of the doubt for him
GHAIYYATH is also too risky
He has only had 7 career starts
GHAIYYATH is a 4yo
He only has 7 career starts
The previous 4yo winners
Had 9 18 8 12 17 9 13 11 runs
If there is an older winner
ENABLE is surely that horse
3 year olds
Won 18 of the last 25 renewals
They had the following runs
7 7 4 11 4 8 6 6 6 8 8 7 7 3 6 6 6 7 7
They had the following runs that year
6 6 3 6 3 5 4 6 5 4 5 5 5 3 4 6 6 6 6
SOTTSASS
6 runs 4 this season
Same profile as Zarkava in 2008
JAPAN
8 runs and 5 this year
Solid matchable Arc Profile
I can only see 3 horses
Capable of winning this race
JAPAN
ENABLE
SOTTSASS
My head says Enable
My heart says Japan
My staking says Sottsass
Staking that was sent Thursday
I suggested this strange £20 bet
£9.60 Sottsass at 8.4
£7.70 Enable at 1.80
£2.70 Japan at 7.40
JAPAN is now available at 8.4
SOTTSASS is available at 10.00
ENABLE has shortened
Not sure if you say high rollers
Have been coming in for her now
But the majority of people believe
And seem to feel she will win again
Those dissenting voices are distant
ENABLE's 1.72 price on betfair
Would put me off another similar bet
I'm happy with my original position
Selection
Thursdays £20 Bet
Represents my position
Betting the 3 market leaders
Don't see that as viable today
So going in the Novelty Markets
Without The Favourite Market
£7 Win Bet SOTTSASS 7/2
£3 Win Bet JAPAN 2/1/-5/2
This basically means
If Enable wins it does not matter
If Japan wins then no problem either
We then have Sottsass v the others
And will be getting over 2/1 for that
Future Betting Angles
Yesterday
Around 4.50pm
Fantastic couple of minutes
Pendleton had just won at Ascot
Camacho Chief also got placed
But Liverpool scored a late goal
Massive result for the roll-over
Beautiful Bet 3
Premier League
Rolling Challenge
Will update fully on Monday
Once we know today's result
Bet 1 is now worth £134.32
Bet 2 is now worth £36.48
Long odds on today
That this bet will grow bigger
Should Manchester City win
Better not try and tempt fate
Not taking anything for granted
But you would think they will
This beautiful bet
Will be set up for a cliffhanger
International Break next week
But the week after is game on
October 20th
Manchester United v Liverpool
We should have £180 and more
Running on Liverpool at Old Trafford
We do have options
Option 1
Assuming Man City win today
Cash in the Money
Before the Man United game
Don't take the unnecessary risk
The advantage of doing this
This bet would be guaranteed
To not lose money all season
Should be in a no lose position
The cowardly Custard option
The disadvantage of doing this
We'd miss a chance of a jackpot
Option 2
Let the bet ride as we planned
Believe Liverpool can beat United
Be Bold and embrace the beauty
Stick to our guns trust the process
Stay strong for the 10 game rule
May need some feedback
And advise on what to do here
I suspect the right thing to do
Don't get my grubby hands on the bet
And dilute it with my poisonous negativity
All this will be immaterial
If Man City dont win todays game
Rugby World Cup
New Zealand 11/10 England 9/2 South Africa 9/2
Wales 7/1 Ireland 12/1 Australia 20/1 France 33/1
Japan 66/1 Scotland 200/1 Fiji 1000/1
Current Bet Update
Name the Finalists
£8.50 New Zealand + South Africa 11/4
£1.50 New Zealand + England 6/1
Almost at the Quarter Finals
Not paying much attention to it
The bet is still very much in play
New Zealand v South Africa
To meet in the final is now 9/4
There is a market on Betfair
Nothing much has changed
As the tournament progresses
Expecting the class to come out
Tennis
Davis Cup
Current Bet Update
SPAIN 7/2
Starts 6 weeks today
This bet was given in May
You may remember in the spring
I was singing the praises of this
Backed Spain in a win double
With Djokovic who won Wimbledon
This is more than a message filler
Strongly expect this bet to win it
Could yet be a "Bet of the year"
Paddy Power and Betway are 7/2
Most other firms have shortened
But several have not priced up
The format has changed this year
Spain are behind these changes
A Spanish footballer to be precise
Spain have home advantage too
There are probably only 2 teams
Spain and Russia with 2 players
Currently in the Worlds Top 10
Rafa Nadal will be the main man
I see him winning all of his games
And winning the title for Spain
Not Playing
World no 3 - Roger Federer
World no 6 - Alexander Zverev
Will both me missing this event
Playing together in Chile that week
Snubbing it for an exhibition game
Novak Djokovic may not turn up
Not so bothered if he plays anyway
This wont be a high priority for him
Not Playing
World no 5 - Dominic Thiem
World no 7 - Stefanos Tsitsipas
Their countries are knocked out
World no 8 - Kei Nishikori
He plays but Japan are 66/1 chances
RUSSIA are dangers
With the World Number 4 and 9
SPAIN are the stand out bet
With the World Number 2-10-35
SPAIN and RUSSIA
Are drawn in the same round robin
6 Round Robin Groups
The winners of the 6 groups
Straight to the Quarter Finals
With 2 teams who finished 2nd
Based on matches and sets won
Also going to the quarter finals
SPAIN
They have the group of death
Group B
Croatia 6/1
Spain 7/2
Russia 10/1
If they get through as expected
Their price will drop dramatically
Be like catching a falling sword
Rafa Nadal is the main reason
He will be off for his life this week
He has just pulled out of an event
Because of a mysterious wrist injury
Do not see anything sinister there
2 weeks today he is getting married
After his Wedding and Honeymoon
He should go to this event in Madrid
Ensuring Spain win the Davis Cup
In front of their patriotic home fans
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