Mathematician 2683
Wednesday July 26th
7 Previews
1 Staked Bet
Bread and Butter type of message
Rain around at all of today's tracks
Makes things a little bit more random
All tracks are soft or getting softer
So I haven't tried to be too ambitious
I like Previews 1-2-3-4-5 the most
Today's Bet
Catterick 4.00
£7.50 Win Bet GLENROWAN ROSE 11/4 -5/2
£2.50 Saver Bet LANDING LIGHT 3/1
Price Guide
Glenrowen Rose 11/4 - Hills Bet365 Ladbrokes
Glenrowen Rose 11/4 - Corals Boyles Independants
Glenrowen Rose 5/2 Elsewhere
Landing Light - 100/30 Betfred Tote
Landing Light - 3/1 PPower Corals Bet365 Boyles Betfair
TODAY'S MESSAGE
One or two annoying little hold-ups
Haven't been able to watch many videos
Not as many as I'd normally have done
The first 5 Previews are safer
Easier to get right with less risk
Maybe best to concentrate on those
Some selections are straight forward
The staking was a different matter
The first 5 Previews
Produced 5 Selections
Most of these could be used
As potential Each Way Doubles
Particularly these 4 horses
Catterick 2.00 - Placebo Effect 2/1 - 15/8
Bath 2.10 - Aquadabra 11/4
Catterick 2.30 - Star Of Zaam 5/4
Catterick 4.00 - Glenrowan Rose 11/4
Tend to find on days like this
The market trims the options down
As non runners come out and prices shorten
Placebo Effect for example was 9/4 earlier
I am going to highlight 2 horses
Ignore the obvious each way doubles
Tempting as these are
2 Highlighted Bets
Bath 2.10
AQUADABRA 3/1
Each Way
1/4 Odds 1,2 Places
Catterick 4.00
£7.50 Win Bet GLENROWAN ROSE 11/4 -5/2
£2.50 Saver Bet LANDING LIGHT 3/1
TUESDAY'S REVIEW
Solid enough performance yesterday
The previews finished W W L L W P
All 3 of those winners were highlighted
The Top of the message went W W W
Best of all the account bet won as well
MAY REMAIN did exactly as I'd hoped
Far too strong for an inexperienced horse
Way too early to comment on daily bets
Hasn't given me any great hang ups yet
I am staking a bit too cautiously though
Confidence should eventually correct that
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
CATTERICK 2.00
5/2 Shovel It On, 11/4 Placebo Effect, 4/1 Society's Dream,
11/2 Pearl's Calling, 9/1 Miss Mazzie, Mr Carbonator
16/1 One Drunken Night, 33/1 Heavenly Pulse.
2yo Selling race over 7f
Only 13 of these races in July
If you look at the market leaders
3 of them step up in distance today
Horses from 6f or shorter
Are far better with recent runs
Than when having absences
Those from 6f races
Running within 7 days were 4-12
Absent over 13 days were 1-45
Absent over 18 days were 0-25
Those with absences struggled
PLACEBO EFFECT ran 4 days ago
His profile is safer than the other pair
SHOVEL IT ON is up in trip absent 20 days
SOCIETYS DREAM does it with 56 days off
As a filly that would worry me
This statistic suggests we should be worried
2yo Sellers
Any Distance any time of year
Fillies absent more than 44 days
Have an underperforming 5-145 record
Those that raced over 7f or more were 0-39
SOCIETYS DREAM fails this 0-39 record
Those with 3 or more runs were 0-74
SOCIETYS DREAM fails this 0-74 record
MISS MAZZIE's numbers are too low
MR CARBONATOR has the same problem
PEARLS CALLING has been nibbled
But she is a filly with just 2 runs
A filly with a heavy defeat last time
She probably does need some respect
I think her Beverley run was excusable
PLACEBO EFFECT has the safest profile
Has to be the selection
PEARLS CALLING a possible saver
I'm going to as I am in the dark about her
Haven't been able to watch her runs
Selection
£9 Win Bet PLACEBO EFFECT 2/1
£1 Win Bet PEARLS CALLING 8/1
BATH 2.10
6/4 Golden Salute, 100/30 Zumurud
7/2 Aquadabra 9/2 White Feather
16/1 Little Boy Blue.
5f Novice Race
Small field of 2 year olds
3 Experienced horses
2 Unraced horses
ZUMURUD is unraced
LITTLE BOY BLUE is unraced
When you consider the other 3 runners
All have 2 or more career starts
And you realise past winners of this race
Had 3 3 3 3 5 3 8 3 2 2 previous runs
It is not hard to avoid the unraced horses
They may pop up but I'd suggest it's unlikely
One of 3 should win
AQUADABRA has the most experience
Most recent run as well
I am drawn to her because of the above
WHITE FEATHER has 48 days off
I can not rule her out
But her 2 main rivals have 8 + 9 days off
GOLDEN SALUTE with 9 days off
Should have a solid chance as well
I could go with any of these
And save on any of them as well
Rather than go with that strategy
And risk watching the 3rd horse win
AQUADABRA each way is the suggestion
Only 2 places but 1/4 the odds
Should just have to beat 1 of 2 horses to place
And I think she has the best positives
Selection
AQUADABRA 3/1
Each Way
1/4 Odds 1,2 Places
CATTERICK 2.30
6/4 Star Of Zaam, 7/2 Sunbreak, 6/1 The Auld Hoose
13/2 Northern Angel, 10/1 Duke Of Freedom, 14/1 Ladycammyofclare
16/1 By Royal Approval, 20/1 Le Gros Serpant, Optimickstickhill
33/1 Arabellas Fortune.
6f Novice race for 2 year olds
These races not always straight forward
I am going to ignore the unraced horses
They don't score very well in similar races (4-109)
Catterick is not a good place for unraced 2yo's
Once you take out a few that seem to lack class
There are not many sensible options
I can only shortlist 3 horses
SUNBREAK - STAR OF ZAAM
Horses with 1 career start
Absent more than 37 days
Have a 0-20 record in these races
SUNBREAK has this problem
1 run and 61 days off may hurt him
I think one of the horse from 7f may win
STAR OF ZAAM has 4 runs
Has the edge in experience and fitness
H has the best numbers in the race
And has ran well on softer than good
Selection
STAR OF ZAAM 5/4
Win Bet
CATTERICK 4.00
9/4 Glenrowan Rose, 9/2 Fumbo Jumbo
5/1 Landing Night 13/2 Economic Crisis
7/1 Olivia Fallow, 8/1 Bosham, 12/1 Indian Pursuit
5f Handicap
FUMBO JUMBO is favourite
Little bit surprised to see that
When she is a 4yo filly with 1 run this season
If I look at 4 yera olds
7 or more career starts
Running within 7 weeks
Those with 1 run this year were 0-35
INDIAN PURSUIT also looks underraced
Just 1 run since April may not be enough
ECONOMIC CRISIS ran yesterday
Finished last of 6 and not convincing
OLIVIA FALLOW is a steady handicapper
BOSHAM is a steady handicapper
Chances if this is an average race
But anything with a bit of class
May be too strong for those
And we could have that in this race
GLENROWAN ROSE is interesting
Last time out a Racing Post Rating of 96
That is a pretty high standard
Admittedly that was over 6f
But she has some big 5f numbers
Look at the numbers her rivals achieved
On their last time out runs
82 75 69 59 78 71 54
GLENROWAN ROSE is well clear
That last Rating could flatter her
On that performance 5 days ago
I find it difficult to oppose her here
LANDING LIGHT is there as a saver
One of the fittest horses
Has a W W W track record as well
GLENROWAN ROSE has plenty of weight
She drops down in trip as well
There are arguments against her
But if she repeats her last run she will win
Happy to side with her with a saver
Selection
£7.50 Win Bet GLENROWAN ROSE 11/4
£2.50 Win Bet LANDING LIGHT 7/2
NAAS 5.55
7/4 Hawaam, 5/2 Brick By Brick, 4/1 Mount Wellington
8/1 Kion, 12/1 Decked, 16/1 Emadee, 33/1 Ar Saoirse
33/1 Colonel Paddy, Just Waterville, Scarlet Ribbons, Vocatio.
2yo Maiden over 5f
HAWAAM has raced once before
Promising debut but it was 86 days ago
You'd expect him to have had a problem
That absence does not rule him out of winning
BRICK TO BRICK has 3 runs
He has better Racing Post Ratings
He has a recent run 20 days ago as well
I see him as the safer option of the pair
MOUNT WELLINGTON is a big runner
Close enough on the numbers to be a threat
Think we need to consider the possibility
He did not fully appreciate 6f in recent runs
Quite possible this 5f could be the answer
Selection
£7.00 Win Bet MOUNT WELLINGTON 3/1
£3.00 Win Bet BRICK TO BRICK 9/4
LEICESTER 6.15
3/1 Tenby Two, 7/2 Scarlet Thrush,
4/1 Flawed Diamond, 5/1 Dreamofdiscovery
5/1 Oscar Ranger
3yo Selling race over 8f
Dragged into this race but 1 angle
I didn't want to get my hands dirty here
As I didn't think could sort the race
But we have a favourite with a bad profile
TENBY TWO drops from 1m 5f to 8f
That is a 5 furlong drop in distance
Having raced only 8 days ago
I went back to 2004
Looked at every 8f race there was
I looked at horses that came from 13f
With a run in the previous 12 days
Unsurprisingly I found a 0-45 record
TENBY TWO probably is the fittest horse
If that is what matters most he might win
But that drop in trip puts me off him
OSCAR RANGER didn't appeal
He steps up from 6f to 8f hardly ideal
Not sure 2 runs is enough to prepare him for that
Look at his sire Bushranger as well
His runners on turf over a mile or more
Having under 4 career starts
Have a miserable 1-123 record
SCARLET THRUSH could easily take this
Despite a regressing looking career
I think she was entitled to need her last run
She was a filly absent 4 months last time
I would have liked another run though
She is a filly with just 1 run since March
I am going Win Bet and Saver
DREAMOFDISCOVERY has a chance
I just wish he'd have more recent runs
See him as a sensible saver
FLAWED DIAMOND is hard to read
Filly whose last 2 runs were abroad
Coming from an unsafe sire as well
Recent runs might make the difference
With the ground on the soft side
Selection
Small Stakes
£8 Win Bet FLAWED DIAMOND 6/1
£2 Win Bet DREAMOFDISCOVERY 7/2
NAAS 7.30
9/4 Rehana, 7/2 Only Mine, 7/1 Music Box, 15/2 Asking
9/1 Mur Hiba, 10/1 Pious Alexander, 11/1 Peticoatgovernment
14/1 Alphabet, 16/1 Go Kart, 33/1 Carolinae, Nutcracker Suite
33/1 Old Time Waltz, 50/1 Smoulder.
6F Listed race for fillies and Mares
The first thing you notice about this race
Aidan O'Brien has 6 of the 13 runners
MUSIC BOX appears to be the number 1
She is an old friend and a past winner for us
We have got her right a few times before
She has every chance on the numbers
She has to be the fittest horse in the race
And she is improving race by race on RPR's
If you can assume she is the stables best
Then she really should be going close here
The problem we have is she comes from 8f
That drop from 8f to 6f makes her very risky
This is a theme throughout the race
REHANA also drops down from 8f to 6f
That makes her extremely unorthodox
And her 59 day absence is not the norm either
ASKING also drops down from 8f to 6f
That will probably count against her too
OLD TIME WALTZ is also down 2 furlongs
I am opposing the horses from 8f
But making MUSIC BOX a saver
MUR HIBA has raced just once since August 2016
I would see her as underraced in a field this size
PIOUS ALEXANDER doesn't interest me
Not in a race like this sired by Acclamation
NUTCRACKER SUITE's numbers are too low
Up in class from Handicaps she has it all to do
GO KART is wrong from a 5f handicap
ALPHABET also comes up in distance
With better fancied stablemates she is out
Shortlist
MUSIC BOX
PETICOAT GOVERNMENT
ONLY MINE
Selection
Small Stakes
£7.00 Win Bet ONLY MINE 4/1
£1.50 Win Bet PETICOAT GOVERNMENT 10/1
£1.50 Win Bet MUSIC BOX 8/1
****************************************************
****************************************************
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk