Mathematician 3383
Saturday November 16th
9 Previews
1 Account Bet
Lingfield 2.10
SCENTASIS 5/2
Win Bet
Today's Message
Cheltenham
Makes a nice change
After a week of dreary racing
Always a long and heavy message
Interesting and accurate angles
The biggest threat to the statistics
Field sizes are smaller than usual
The ground is obviously very soft
All recipes for things to go wrong
But hoping for an enjoyable day
Lingfield 11.55
Cheltenham 12.05
Cheltenham 12.40
Cheltenham 1.15
Cheltenham 1.50
Lingfield 2.10
Cheltenham 2.25
Cheltenham 3.00
Cheltenham 3.35
Today's Best Bets
Lingfield 2.10
SCENTASIS 5/2
Win Bet
Would have gone each way
But the price has shortened
Doesn't worry me even at 5/2
But would rather go win only
Filly improving in great form
Cheltenham 3.00
£4.25 Each Way THE BUTCHER SAID 11/2
£1.50 Win Bet SMACKWATER JACK 11/2
Difficult to split this pair
As they share the same stable
Smackwater Jack appealed more
But he lacks any Cheltenham form
Cheltenham 3.30
JATILUWIH 7/2
Each Way
Passes all my angles in the race
Every other horse fails 1 or more
One concern would be the jockey
Trusting him in a smallish field
Annoying the 4/1 has been taken
SCENTASIS
Decided to go with her
Going for simplicity today
No safety net on a cruel course
But we have an improving filly
Well clear on last time numbers
Came down to the usual factors
Number of likely dangers is one
The risks against the rewards
What can and might go wrong
Relying on Dettori to get it done
With an improver with momentum
Friday's Summary
First bet of the week yesterday
Bold Approach placed each way
Ran well and did nothing wrong
Good to at least stake this bet
Having had poor cards all week
There were only 2 other previews
The Newcastle race was wrong
But at least the other horse won
Arcanears the winner at Dundalk
Steady enough return to action
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Lingfield 11.55
5/2 Quick Recovery, 6/1 Annakonda, Pearl Spectre
8/1 Maryellen, My Law, 10/1 Pact Of Steel, 12/1 Arctic Flower
12/1 Avorisk Et Perils, 14/1 Mister Musicmaster, 16/1 Fitzy
20/1 Duke Of North, 33/1 Chop Chop.
8f Handicap
132 similar races in November
Not keen on stall 1
Not keen on stall 12
Lingfield 8f races
Since 2016
Over 10 runners
Horses drawn 1 are 2-87
Horses drawn 12 + are 1-44
QUICK RECOVERY is drawn 1
In her favour she is fit running well
But would have liked a better draw
Opposing the following
AVORISK ET PERILS is a filly
With just 1 run in 137 days now
Horses with under 4 runs
Have a very modest 1-47 record
None were aged 4 or more
MARYELLEN is a filly failing this
She has an absence and stall 12
ANNAKONDA only has 3 lifetime runs
She also comes from a 6f race
Horses from 6f races
Have a 1-77 record in these races
Those aged 4 or more are 0-54
PEARL SPECTRE is an 8yo doing this
FITZY has 83 days off
His trainer has a poor record
Paddy Butler Flat runners
Absent 64 days and longer
Have a 0-178 career record
CHOP CHOP'S numbers are low
DUKE OF NORTH isn't doing enough
MISTER MUSICMASTER is a 10yo
132 similar races in November
Horses aged 10 (0-19) and older are (0-34)
That makes him unsafe on 1 level
His record October-November is 0-24
MY LAW has to prove his stamina
His last 2 runs were poor after a break
Leap of faith he bounces back over 8f
ARCTIC FLOWER is an older mare
Not a safe profile up in distance
None as old as 6 has managed it
She is 0-18 on the All weather
Seems to be a bit better on grass
QUICK RECOVERY - decent profile
Would have liked a better draw though
PACT OF STEEL is a positive
Can match him to similar winners
Selection
PACT OF STEEL 5/1
Each Way
Cheltenham 12.05
13/8 Thyme Hill, 5/1 Dancing On My Own, I K Brunel
11/2 L'Air Du Vent, 13/2 Champagne Well, 10/1 Happygolucky
14/1 Some Day Soon, 40/1 Born By The Sea.
Ballymore Novices' Hurdle
11 Past renewals
All 8 runners
Aged 5 or 6 years
THYME HILL
Has the best numbers
Racing Post Ratings 5lbs clear
Won a Graded hurdle on his debut
Proven track form as well
Racing Post Hurdle Ratings
He has a penalty to carry
But has the most positives here
HAPPYGOLUCKY has raced once
Rather have more runs on this ground
BORN BY THE SEA looks wrong
I K BRUNEL has a chance
He won a Fontwell maiden hurdle
This is a Cheltenham Graded novice
It took him 3 races to win that maiden
Think there are more likely winners
DANCING MY OWN is experienced
Has some smart form behind him
He comes from a 2m maiden hurdle
No winner came from maiden hurdles
That were run over 2m 3f or shorter
SOME DAY SOON has 9 hurdle starts
The most exposed hurdler in the race
Not from a top class stable either
CHAMPAGNE WELL is quite exposed
L'AIR DU VENT was beaten last time
Normally not a great sign in this race
But I think that is very excusable
As it came over 2m 5f at Cheltenham
The race he had his first run in
Has never been won by a debutant
The horses beating him that day
Had raced 5 and 7 times over hurdles
He was at a serious disadvantage there
Could show significant improvement
Number of Hurdle runs
9 Some Day Soon
7 Dancing On My Own
7 Champagne Well
3 I K Brunel
1 Happygolucky
1 Thyme Hill
1 L'air Du Vent
Given ground and conditions
We have to decide what we want
Lightly raced horses ?
Experienced horses ?
Horses with 1 hurdle run
Do have the best record in this
But we have had experienced winners
The 4 past renewals
That were run on soft ground
The winners had 1 1 5 1 hurdle runs
Being lightly raced worked perfectly well
THYME HILL after 1 hurdle race
Has already achieved higher figures
Than all those with several hurdle runs
And he has the most improvement too
The best strategy here
Might be the each way double
It gives us a safety net in this race
And solves a problem in the 2nd race
Selection
Cheltenham 12.05 -THYME HILL 6/4
Cheltenham 12.40 - MICK PASTOR SP
Each Way Double
Cheltenham 12.40
11/8 Mick Pastor, 7/2 Botox Has, 11/2 Allmankind
7/1 Prefontaine, 10/1 Nordano, 14/1 Repetitio
16/1 Chocks Away, 20/1 Thatsmyseat, 40/1 Green Etoile
66/1 Admirals Bay, 100/1 Dawn Treader.
3yo Juvenile Hurdle
15 Previous renewals
Past renewals show
Horses beaten 2.5 + lengths last time
Have a 0-33 record in this race
The following horses fail this
Thatsmyseat 20/1
Repetitio 20/1
Nordano 12/1
Chocks Away 18/1
One of these might pop up
But none like them have so far
Virtually all recent winners
Come here winning last time out
Racing Post Hurdle Ratings
131 Mick Pastor
117 Allmankind
115 Botox Has
115 Botox Has
108 Nordano - Prefontaine - Repetitio
106 Repetitio
105 Nordano - Prefontaine
MICK PASTOR is 14lbs clear
Top class connections on his side
Whilst he has a long absence
Nicholls has twice won this recently
With similar absent French recruits
ALLMANKIND won 8 days ago
Hurdle debut after 119 days off
His challenge is a very recent return
Whether this comes too quickly or not
None won this with such a short break
Flat racer as well which is no positive
BOTOX HAS won at Fontwell
Came there with a big reputation
This is a big step up in class though
One Option
One bet I could be tempted in
If the earlier each way double
Starting at 12.05 has gone down
£6 Win Bet Botox Has 7/2- 4/1
£4 Win Bet Mick Pastor 11/8
Want to make sure I can't lose
If Mick Pastor wins this race
MICK PASTOR is first choice
Included him in an earlier bet
Which I hope is still running
Selection
Option 1
£6 Win Bet Botox Has 7/2- 4/1
£4 Win Bet Mick Pastor 11/8
Option 2
Cheltenham 12.05 -Thyme Hill 6/4
Cheltenham 12.40 - Mick Pastor SP
Each Way Double
If the earlier each way double
Starting in the 12.05pm race
Has gone down and failed
Or you did not bother with it
Then Option 1 might be best
If the earlier each way double
Has started well and is in play
Then we don't need another bet
Cheltenham 1.15
7/4 Wholestone, 4/1 Poker Play
9/2 Minella Warrior 13/2 Aye Aye Charlie,
8/1 Redzor, 10/1 Rockpoint, 16/1 Aaron Lad.
3m Novice Chase
Dilemma in this race
The dominant horse on figures
Does not have the right profile
WHOLESTONE could easily win
12lbs clear on official ratings
Was the best hurdler amongst these
Best Racing Post Chase ratings
Some serious positives with him
Main downside is his exposure
He has 25 career starts
He has 22 hurdle starts
All past winners
Ignoring their French form
Had under 16 career starts
Had under 12 hurdle starts
Horses with that profile
Won all 12 previous renewals
With a 12-59 record
WHOLESTONE for all his numbers
Does not match any previous winners
Neither do the following horses
AARON LAD - 16 Hurdle runs
AYE AYE CHARLIE - 16 Hurdle runs
ROCKPOINT - 14 Hurdle runs
Lighter raced horses
Who appear better matches
POKER PLAY
MINELLA WARRIOR
REDZOR
I'd rather have the younger horses
Who are less exposed and improving
Only 7 runners complicates this race
11 past winners since 2008
10 came from 3m or more
1 came from shorter distances
POKER PLAY steps up in distance
Horses aged 6 or more
Doing this since 2008 are 0-17
He is the only horse in this race
Who has to go up in distance here
The best plan might be
WHOLESTONE as a saver bet
Whilst his profile is wrong
We get two positives onside
Dominant numbers
A second extra race this season
None of the others have that
Selection
£6 Win Bet MINELLA WARRIOR 4/1
£4 Win Bet WHOLESTONE 7/4-15/8
Cheltenham 1.50
5/2 Ramses De Teillee, 7/2 West Approach
4/1 Big River, 5/1 Pop Rockstar, 8/1 Achille
10/1 Potters Legend, Relentless Dreamer.
3m 3f Handicap Chase
Normally a brilliant race to watch
But this year only the 7 runners
No 8 year olds this year either
Number of Chase runs
26 Relentless Dreamer
16 Achille
15 Potters Legend
12 Big River
11 Ramses De Teillee
8 Big River
6 Pop Rockstar
RELENTLESS DREAMER is unsafe
He has 26 previous chase runs
Past winners had 19 9 5 7 12 4 6 9 6 11
More exposed than all recent winners
Has 10 more chase runs than his rivals
Pulling up 2 weeks ago hardly reassuring
ACHILLE is a seasonal debutant
Second most exposed chaser in the race
October and November
Venetia Williams
Cheltenham record is 0-77
ACHILLE is too risky from Venetia
BIG RIVER is a seasonal debutant
That may not be easy as a 9 year old
October November December
Cheltenham Handicap Chases
Listed and Graded Class
Any Distance since 2008
Horses aged 8 or more
Absent over 4 Months
Have a 0-91 record since then
BIG RIVER aged 9 fails this
This statistic used in the 2.25pm
Will be more vulnerable in this
As we only have a small field
Unusual for a Graded chase here
BIG RIVER could defy that
I looked at his trainers record here
Lucinda Russell Chasers
Running at Cheltenham are 0-42
She's never had a Chase winner here
She has had hurdle winners
None she trained won first time out
RAMSES DE TEILEE has topweight
Interesting he is rated 153
He only faces a 0-142 class field
He is the class horse in the race
My not be as simple as that
He's only won off a rating of 140
He has never won in this class before
A rating of 153 will not be easy
Cheltenham
Handicap Chases
Listed and Graded class
Any distance
Any time of year
Since 1997
Horses aged 7 or more
Carrying 11st 10lbs or more
Haver a modest 1-44 record
Only Sam Winner managed it
That was in this race though
That does put me off him a bit
POP ROCKSTAR has 6 chase runs
The least exposed horse in the race
If you can stomach Jonjo O'Neill
What bothers me about him
After 18 career starts over any code
He has only been in Class 3 or lower
This is 3 Grades higher than this race
He's on a career high mark
In a race 3 grades higher
Than he has raced in before
We should expect improvement
And this is a small field soft graded race
But he still has plenty to prove yet
WEST APPROACH has to be respected
Good 2nd here on his seasonal debut
This small field will be ideal for him
His 4 wins are in small fields of 4 6 5 6
What is against him
Is the following breeding stat
Horses sired by Westerner
Races over 3m 2f and more
Class 2 or higher
Soft or heavy ground
This sires runners are 0-38
I do normally oppose his sire
In Long distance Graded chases
But this is a small field
Not very typical of a Graded race
There may not be a strong pace
Given all the ground concerns
He could last home and take this
POTTERS LEGEND is a 9yo
Prepped over hurdles last time
Bit exposed with 15 chase runs
Can't rule him out in a small field
He looks so well treated off 132
When you consider his last chase run
His final race last season
Racing Post Rating of 146 at Haydock
A rating he has twice matched here
Selection
£8 Win Bet POTTERS LEGEND 8/1
£2 Win Bet WEST APPROACH 4/1
Lingfield 2.10
3/1 Magic Lily, 7/2 Scentasia, 7/1 Eva Maria
8/1 Simply Beautiful, 10/1 Quote, 12/1 Crotchet, Ojooba
16/1 Hulcote, Maid For Life, Snapraeceps, 20/1 Bella Ragazza
20/1 Contrive, Velma Valento, 25/1 Sh Boom.
Gillies Fillies' Stakes
This race
Normally run at Doncaster
Has been salvaged here this year
Statistically untrustworthy
On a completely different surface
MAGIC LILY is drawn 14
Lingfield 10f races
Class 3 or higher
Since 2007
Show horses drawn 12 or more
Have a 0-37 record in them
MAGIC LILY has this problem
Puts me off selecting her
She has another problem too
All past winners had 4 + runs
MAGIC LILY only has 3 runs
The least experienced horse
Coming from the worst draw
QUOTE fails the same draw angle
HULCOTE is unsafe down 4 furlongs
VELMA VALENTO is the lowest rated
MAID FOR LIFE has a tough absence
EVA MARIA has a chance
Never raced on sand before
SIMPLY BEAUTIFUL could easily win
Another with no sand experience
The angle I am going with
Racing Post Ratings
Last time out
106 Scentasia
100 Magic Lily
100 Quote
99 Ojooba
98 Eva Maria
96 Sh Boom
95 Crotchet
95 Hulcote
88 Maid For Life
85 Simply Beautiful
85 Velma Valento
85 Snapraeceps
83 Contrive
75 Bella Ragazza
SCENTASIS is 6lbs clear
Career best last time out
Selection
SCENTASIS 5/2
Win Bet
Cheltenham 2.25
9/2 Slate House, 11/2 Siruh Du Lac, 7/1 Spiritofthegames
8/1 Us And Them, 9/1 Count Meribel, 14/1 Guitar Pete
14/1 Magic Saint, Springtown Lake, 16/1 Eamon An Cnoic
16/1 Happy Diva, Highway One O One, 20/1 Belami Des Pictons
20/1 Brelan D'As, 25/1 Splash Of Ginge, 33/1 Mercian Prince
33/1 Warthog, 40/1 Dell Oro, 50/1 Demi Sang.
BetVictor Gold Cup
Number of Chase runs
26 Splash Of Ginge
23 Guitar Pete
21 Mercian Prince
15 Happy Diva
15 Demi Sang
11 Eamon An Cnoic
11 Brelan d'As
10 Magic Saint
9 Us And Them
8 Highway One O One
8 Siruh Du Lac
7 Dell Oro
6 Belami Des Pictons
6 Springtown Lake
5 Spiritofthegames
5 Slate House
4 Count Meribel
4 Warthog
18 Horses in the race
SAINT CALVADOS does not run
The weights have now gone up
6 year olds have won 8 renewals
Only 4 have won in the last 20 years
They won from these handicap mark
136 138 139 139
My records go back to 1960
No recent winners aged 6
Have won from ratings of 140 +
At least not for several decades
US AND THEM a 6yo rated 151
SIRUH DU LACK is 6 rated 150
DEMI SANG fails this rated 142
None aged 6 have won this race
With more than 11st 2lbs weight
US AND THEM has 11st 12lbs
SIRUH DU LACK has 11st 10lbs
SIRUH DU LACK is 6 rated 150
No recent winners aged 6
Have won off a mark of 140 +
He won at March's Cheltenham festival
Pushed his rating up to 150 now
None his age won rated so high
US AND THEM is a 6yo rated 151
Interestingly trained by Joseph
But not a great age in this race
And rated higher than any 6yo winners
November and December
Graded Handicap Chases
Any Distance
Since 2006
8 year olds
Absent more than 56 days
Have a miserable 0-108 record
The following fail this angle
MERCIAN PRINCE
EAMON AN CNOIC
BELAMI DES PICTONS
BELAMI DES PICTONS is unsafe
Venetia Williams Cheltenham record
In October and November is now 0-79
Horses rated 134 of lower
May not have enough class
WATRHOG is only rated 132
Lower than all recent winners
SPLASH OF GINGE is rated 130
Lowest rated horse in the race
He is also the most exposed too
The last 19 winners of this race
Had the following Chase runs
7 18 14 13 5 8 7 6 3 9 5 6 5 12 12 10 5 10 4
Horses with 15 or more chase runs
Are 1-62 record in the last 19 renewals
SPLASH OF GINGE too old and exposed
GUITAR PETE has 23 Chase runs
Much more than would be ideal
Horses aged 9 won 3 renewals since 2000
These 3 winners had 18 14 15 chase runs
GUITAR PETE is far more exposed
He was 3rd in this last year
But had less weight and a lower mark
Was less exposed and had 2 prep runs
20 Past renewals since 2000
Seasonal debutants won 10
Horses with 1 run this year won 10
Horses with 2 or more runs
Since the start of the season
Have a 0-50 record in this race
These types are like no past winners
DEMI SANG has this problem
October November December
Cheltenham Handicap Chases
Listed and Graded Class
Any Distance since 2008
Horses absent 4 + Months
Have an overall 7-156 record
Look at their age break down
Those aged 5 are 0-8
Those aged 6 are 0-22
Those aged 7 are 7-39
Those aged 8 are 0-42
Those aged 9 are 0-29
Those aged 10 + are 0-20
This clearly shows
Only 7 year olds have won first time out
Horses of other ages are 0-117
The following fail this
MAGIC SAINT is a 5yo first time out
DELL ORO is a 6yo first time out
Neither safe on the above angles
Horses aged 7
Won won this race
With a run that season
All finished 1st or 2nd last time
SPRINGTOWN LAKE finished 7th
Beaten 23 lengths would be a worry
Not keen that he is down in distance
Horses that raced within 100 days
Coming from races over 3m or more
Have a 0-26 record in this handicap
Those dropping from 2m 5f or more
Have a 0-38 record with recent runs
SPRINGTOWN LAKE also fails this
HAPPY DIVA is an 8yo
Those like him with recent runs
Have a 1-42 records in the race
Only the 2010 winner managed it
That horse was far less exposed
HAPPY DIVA is also a mare
BRELAN DAS another 8yo
Coming here with a recent run (1-42)
Not ideal he unseated in that prep race
And he has to step up from 2m
Sires never had a Graded Chase winner
Never had a listed one on softer ground
Horses aged 7
Winning this first time out
Had 5 13 8 6 3 6 12 chase runs
SPIRITOFTHEGAMES is a 7yo
This is his first run of the season
With 5 Chase runs not a bad match
But he does have a rating of 150
Seasonal debutant winners
Who were rated 148 or higher
Have a 1-34 record since 2007
The only winner was Al Ferof
He had achieved so much more
Had won a Supreme Novice Hurdle
HIGHWAY ONE O ONE is a 7yo
Has enough positives to consider
Prepped over hurdles last time
Not ideal but the 2016 winner did it
Small stable and won't want a bog
COUNT MERIBEL is a 7yo
With a good recent run at Carlisle
There are positives about him
His pedigree raises some eyebrows
Sire has no pattern winners so far
You'd worry about him on soft
Flat bred sired by Dark Angel
SLATE HOUSE is a 7yo
Won on his seasonal debut
Generally a positive profile
The 2007 2009 and 2018 winners
Came here with similar profiles
They had similar ratings of 148 146 146
They had 9 7 6 previous chase runs
SLATE HOUSE only has 5 chase runs
Close enough to be a current positive
But lots of smaller field form
He is still quite experienced
This may or may not be relevant
Cheltenham Chases
Listed and Graded Class
Run over 2m 6f or shorter
Not including Novice races
Horses in these races
Sired by Presenting are 0-49
Surprisingly low record from a top sire
SLATE HOUSE is too short
Given some of his question marks
Shortlist
My original fancy
Has not made the race
So will have to compromise
As no horse is problem free
SPRINGTOWN LAKE is not ideal
As none have come down in trip
Not too many were fancied though
Looks very well treated off 137
His first 3 Chase runs
Racing Post Ratings 145 150 141
Tried to win at Cheltenham Festival
On the back of an absence
Made him a negative that day
Went to Aintree Festival
Failed Generic Angles that race
Poor 7yo record at that festival
Last time he underperformed
He may have blown up that day
Could easily have been a prep run
Gets weight from most rivals
If he performs and runs to his best
He should be handicapped to compete
Selection
SPRINGTOWN LAKE 10/1 -11/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5
Cheltenham 3.00
7/2 Tobefair, 5/1 Smackwater Jack
6/1 The Butcher Said 7/1 Eva's Oskar, 7/1 Hear No Evil
8/1 Eminent Poet, Vieux Lion Rouge, 10/1 Anteros
20/1 As De Mee, 25/1 Golan Fortune.
3m Handicap Hurdle
TOBEFAIR is rated 154
His rivals are rated only 140 or less
TOBEFAIR is the class horse
That could be the angle to follow
But this has been a lightweights race
Go back to the 1997 renewal
Horses with 11st 4lbs or more
Have a 0-52 record in 21 renewals
That has to be a big negative
He is also a 9 year old
Only 1 horse his age has won
Since the 2001 renewal
He has 25 career starts
He has 19 hurdle runs
Horses with over 13 hurdle runs
Have a 1-70 record in this race
TOBEFAIR fails this 1-70 angle
ANTEROS fails this with 37 hurdle runs
This is an interesting stat
November and December
Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any Class
Horses aged 10 or more
Coming from a Chase
Running in the last 3 months
Have a 3-93 record
Those absent over 2 weeks
Have a 0-56 record in them
VIEUX LION ROUGE fails this
No horses aged 10 or more
Have won this in the last 21 years
ANTEROS also fails this aged 11
From a Chase he is also unsafe
Go back to the 2001 renewal
Horses aged 8 or more
Absent more than 3 weeks
Have a 0-48 record in this race
VIEUX LION ROUGE fails this
ANTEROS fails this as well
AS DE ME fails this 0-48 record
He is 8 and has 630 days off the track
EMINENT POST is an 8yo
With 237 days off he also fails that
And as mentioned elsewhere
Venetia Williams record is poor
Breeding stats can go wrong
But if you look at his sires record
Montjeu hurdlers
Running in Listed/Graded races
Running over 2m 5f and more
Have a 0-34 record so far
EMINENT POST fails this
GOLDEN FORTUNE looks unsafe
HERE NO EVIL
6 runs and 4 hurdle starts
Respected as unexposed
His biggest problem in this
Horses from 2m 4f or shorter
Have a 2-50 record in this race
Those with under 13 runs were 0-20
EVA'S OSKAR is unexposed
Comes here after 3 straight wins
His trainers runners score badly here
But he has at least had a winner
What bothers me most about him
He is coming from a Class 4 race
Horses aged 5 from under class 3 are 0-7
Horses from Handicap Hurdles
That were Class 4 or lower
Have a 0-18 record in this race
His 2 wins were in 0-121 and 0-125
This is a race with 154 + 140 rated horses
Shortlist
SMACKWATER JACK
THE BUTCHER SAID
Both from the same stable
SMACKWATER JACK is a 5yo
Unexposed and career best last time
No major red flags in his profile
Apart from no Cheltenham experience
SMACKWATER JACK my 2nd choice
Could be a saver if you want one
THE BUTCHER SAID is unexposed
Comes from a 3m Novice Hurdle
Horses have won from Novices
Staking both horses
Selection
£4.25 Each Way THE BUTCHER SAID 11/2
£1.50 Win Bet SMACKWATER JACK 11/2
Cheltenham 3.30
7/2 Jatiluwih, 5/1 Legends Gold, Remastered
7/1 Falco Blitz, 8/1 Conron, 9/1 Jacamar, Treasure Dillon
12/1 Peaches And Cream, 14/1 Shanwalla, 16/1 Le Milos.
2m 5f Handicap Hurdle
Horses aged 5 and 6 dominate
Horses aged 4
Have a horrible 1-61 record in this
Last years winner was a 4yo
The first time it has happened
Going back to as far as 1997
And he had serious flat form
But overall they score poorly
The following horses fail this
PEACHES AND CREAM
LE MILOS and JACAMAR
No past winner
Had more than 3 recent runs
SHANWALLA has been running a lot
CONRON has been running a lot too
Horses from Listed and Graded races
Have a 0-26 record since 2002
JACAMAR does this
REMASTERED does this
No winners came via maiden hurdles
FALCO BLITZ has this against him
SHANWALLA also has this problem
Cheltenham
November and December
Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any Class
Since 2003
Horses running this season
Coming from Maiden Hurdles
Have a 0-53 record
FALCO BLITZ fails this
SHANWALLA fails this
Horses running this season
Beaten over 10 lengths last time
Have a 1-60 record in this race
REMASTERED fails this
Since the 2006 renewal
Horses with 10st 6lbs or less
Have a 0-36 record in the race
TREASURE DILLON fails this
You want
Under 20 career starts
Under 11 hurdle starts
Horses with 20 + runs
Have a 0-39 record in this
CONRON fails this angle
REMASTERED flopped last time
But he did go off far too quickly
None like him have won though
No female has won this race
LEGENDS GOLD is female
Only 6 tried to win this to be fair
But she is a female from a Novice
In a Cheltenham Handicap Hurdle
Only 1 horse
Has passed all the main angles
JATILUWIH
The elephant in the room
Mr David Maxwell his owner jockey
He actually has an excellent 43-190 record
But never ridden a Cheltenham winner (0-15)
Nor one in Class 2 or higher (0-21)
Giving him the benefit of the doubt
This is only a small field after all
Selection
JATILUWIH 4/1
Each Way
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Best Wishes
Guy Ward
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk
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