Mathematician 3371
Saturday November 2nd
8 Previews
0 Account Bet
2 Highlighted Bets
1 Runs today
1 Runs Tomorrow
Highlighted Bet 1
Ascot 2.45
GUMBALL 8/1 - 9/1
£5.00 Win Bet
£2.50 Each Way
1/4 Odds 1-2-3-4
Highlighted Bet 2
Ante Post (Sunday)
Cork 3.20
Cork Grand National
AHERLOW 20/1- 25/1- 28/1- 33/1
£2.50 Each Way
1/4 Odds 1-2-3-4
33/1 Ladbrokes Corals
28/1 Unibet - Independants
25/1 Bet365 Paddy Power Betfair
20/1 William Hill
£5 Half Stakes today
£5 Half Stakes Sunday
Not every firm have priced up
Anything 20/1 and better is fine
More prices will be out shortly
Don't stress about staking issues
You wont be allowed too much on
Better off waiting and taking 20/1
Just have a little bit more on later
Doesn't sound professional I know
Bookies work differently these days
Today's Bets
Gumball
Not particularly significant
More a sporting Saturday bet
Only pushed it over the line
Because this is a Saturday
Aherlow
The Cork National bet
Been the big plan all week
Full preview at the bottom
Staking half the bet today
Remaining stakes tomorrow
On the outsider in the race
Sometimes the best previews
Lead to bets being well beaten
This is seriously good preview
But this bet is a rank outsider
There are reasons he is that
The Cork National
And the race at Naas tomorrow
Interest me more than todays bet
Today's Message
Only 6 Meetings today
Plenty of no-go areas
Races that are out of bounds
So a more leisurely Saturday
Much less intense than usual
Ascot 2.10
Wetherby 2.30
Ascot 2.45
Ascot 3.20
Ayr 3.25
Wetherby 3.40
Newmarket 4.15
Only interested in 3 races
All 4 are difficult handicaps
Littered with strong angles
But they are not easy races
Luck is going to be needed
Ascot 2.45
GUMBALL 8/1 - 9/1
£5.00 Win Bet
£2.50 Each Way
1/4 Odds 1-2-3-4
Interested in this race
Whether we get the favourite beat
Could have staked this differently
With saver bets rather than part e/w
Ascot 3.20
£4.00 Each Way SPRINGTOWN LAKE 8/1-10/1
£1.00 Win Bet ADRIEN DU PONT 12/1
£1.00 Win Bet ON THE BLIND SIDE 13/2- 7/1
The savers make this a bit messy
Not even convinced they are needed
Just like the way the preview twisted
Picked off all the negatives in the race
Left with 6 shortlisted aged 6 6 6 7 7 7
One last angle cut the 6 year olds down
If that works we are on the right ones
SPRINGTOWN LAKE is first time out
Made the case he's well handicapped
Newmarket 4.15
£4.50 Each Way KING OF TONGA 7/1-8/1
£1.00 Win Bet HOWZER BLACK 11/1-12/1
Both horses 3 year olds
Both Middleham Park Racing owned
Open minded which is the best one
Went for the lighter raced of the pair
Will need some luck in this handicap
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Ascot 2.10
5/1 Clondaw Castle, The Last Day, 11/2 Speredek
13/2 Caid du Lin, 7/1 Ballywood, 9/1 Capeland
10/1 Cap St Vincent, 12/1 Diego Du Charmil
12/1 Imperial Presence, 20/1 Champagne At Tara
25/1 Hatcher, 33/1 Yorkist, 50/1 Caltex.
Listed Handicap Chase (2m)
Past winners career starts
8 4 15 5 7 17
Past winners chase starts
2 0 6 0 0 2
Lighter raced horses
Have the stronger record
The 3 Topweights
All seasonal debutants
Look too exposed with their weight
SPEREDEX first time out with 24 runs
DIEGO DU CHARMIL first time out 20 runs
IMPERIAL PRESENCE first time out 17 runs
Happy to oppose the older horses
YORKIST is 11 years old
CHAMPAGNE AT TARA a 10yo with a break
CALTEX looks outclassed
HATCHER doesn't quite offer enough
CAPELAND has 20 career starts
More than any previous winner
With 11 Chase starts a bit exposed
BALLYWOOD is a 5yo
First time out he has a lot to prove
Not like him won with so much weight
CAID DU LIN is quite exposed
23 runs since coming from France
32 runs if you include French form
None as exposed as he is
Have won with just 1 run that season
Shortlist
CAP ST VINCENT a lightly raced 6yo
Won easily on his seasonal debut
Has enough to shortlist as well
But needs a career best on softer ground
CLONDAW CASTLE has a safe profile
Track and fitness the known unknowns
Stop Press
My original selection
THE LAST DAY is a non runner
CLONDAW CASTLE was a saver
Now upgraded to the selection
Selection
CLONDAW CASTLE 9/2
Each Way
Wetherby 2.30
11/8 Thebannerkingrebel, 5/2 Proschema
5/1 Old Jeroboam, 11/1 Multellie, 16/1 Armandihan
16/1 Cheddleton, Durouyn, Malystic, 25/1 Nye Bevan
33/1 Scorchin, 66/1 Briardale, 100/1 Hows Johnny
100/1 Miss Tootsy, Mr Young.
2m Novice Hurdle
Shapes like a 4 horse race
3 Horses
Won last time out
OLD JEROBOAM
MULTELLIE
THEBANNERKINGREBEL
All recorded Racing Post Ratings
Of 121 and higher doing that
May or may not be significant
PROSCHEMA is sired by Declaration of War
Declaration of War's hurdlers
Have a 0-19 record so far
The highest Racing Post Rating
From every one of his 19 hurdlers
Was a figures of 118
The 3 last time winners
Recorded bigger figures last time
Than any of his offspring at any time
PROSCHEMA may be the weak link
The flaw in that analysis
PROSCHEMA was a smart flat horse
Why I don't see him as a negative
An each way bet
Allows us to be wrong about that
OLD JEROBOAM should improve
2m Novice Hurdles
October and November
Horses aged 5
Winning a Novice Hurdle last time
1 hurdle run
Under 4 career starts
No Flat form
Running 21-31 days ago
Have a 4-8 record
OLD JEROBOAM shares this profile
Selection
OLD JEROBOAM 3/1-100/30 - 7/2
Each Way
Ascot 2.45
11/2 Adjali, 6/1 Lisp, Red Force One
8/1 Didtheyleaveuoutto, Gumball, 9/1 Denmead
10/1 Jolly's Cracked It, 14/1 Flashing Glance, 16/1 Jacamar
16/1 Nordic Combined, Sparkleandshine, 16/1 Vision Clear
20/1 Ardmayle, 25/1 Grapevine, 25/1 Man Of Plenty.
2m Listed Handicap Hurdle
Young and unexposed
The sensible way to play this
Past winners of this race
Had the following hurdle starts
15 6 11 3 4 4 11 4 4 10 4
Horses aged 7 or more
Have a 0-34 record in this race
I'd avoid the older horses
Man Of Plenty is too old
Jolly's Cracked also too old
Ardmayle rejected aged 7
Horses aged 4 can and do win
But they need to be lightly raced
Horses aged 4
More than 9 lifetime starts
Have a modest 1-40 record
That winner had a recent run
RED FORCE ONE is a 4yo
Not safe with 18 lifetime starts
VISION CLEAR the wrong type of 4yo
JACMAR the same problem
ADJALI is a 4yo with 11st 8lbs
October November December
Handicap Hurdles
Listed and Graded Class
Any distance
Horses aged 4
Absent more than 4 weeks
Carrying 11st 2lbs or more
Have a 0-33 record in these races
ADJALI fails this 0-33 statistic
GRAPEVINE has a nasty absence
DIDTHEYLEAVEUOUTTO has one too
SPARKLEANDSHINE is unsafe
Falling at the 1st in a chase last week
DENMEAD is very exposed
He's had 29 runs and 24 on the flat
Similar races show
Horses with over 20 runs
Have a miserable 2-212 record
In fields of 6 or more
Without a very recent run are 0-81
DENMEAD fails this 0-81 angle
GRAPEVINE fails this 0-81 angle
NORDIC COMMAND fails this too
FLASHING GLANCE fails this too
Shortlist
LISP
GUMBALL
Alan Kings seasonal debutants
Have a 1-22 record this season
Just a Novice Chase winner so far
Wonder if he may need a run
With topweight on this ground
GUMBALL has that behind him
Selection
GUMBALL 8/1 - 9/1
£5.00 Win Bet
£2.50 Each Way
1/4 Odds 1-2-3-4
Ascot 3.20
9/2 Vinndication, 5/1 Mister Malarky
6/1 On The Blind Side 8/1 Larry, 9/1 Springtown Lake
10/1 Black Corton 12/1 Go Conquer, 14/1 Relentless Dreamer
16/1 Adrien Du Pont, Potterman, 20/1 Acting Lass, Ami Desbois,
20/1 Double Shuffle, 25/1 Regal Encore, Walk In The Mill
33/1 Cobra De Mai, 50/1 Ultragold, Whisper.
3m Graded Handicap Chase
Past winners
Previous Chase runs
19 10 5 7 16 8 22 16 6 3 4
Horses aged 11 or more
Rarely win these races nowadays
Opposing the 3 horses aged 11
Ultragold - Whisper - Regal Encore
Opposing certain horses aged 9 +
Coming here with long absences
Eliminating the following horses
Go Conquer
Double Shuffle,
Ami Desbois
Only 1 past winner had 11st 4lbs +
Before last year all 33 that tried lost
BLACK CORTON has problems
With 11st 12lbs and 94 days off
RELENTLESS DREAMER is a 10yo
Very exposed and not my choice
ACTING LASS is rejected
Prefer to avoid 8yo debutants in these races
COBRA DE MAI is a seasonal debutant
Too exposed with too much weight
POTTERMANS been running all summer
Not the right type for a race like this
This leaves 6 horses
6yo Seasonal debutants
MISTER MALARKEY
LARRY
VINDICATION
7yo Seasonal debutants
ON THE BLIND SIDE
SPRINGTOWN LAKE
ADRIEN DU PONT
October November December
Graded Handicap Chases
Run over 2m 5f and more
Horses aged 6
Absent more than 31 days
Have a 1-61 record since 2007
Those with under 8 chase runs
Have a 0-43 record in these races
VINDICATION fails this
MISTER MALARKEY fails this
LARRY fails this
Horses aged 7
In comparison score better
Seasonal debutant 7yo's are 13-95
Shortlisting the 7 year olds
ON THE BLIND SIDE
SPRINGTOWN LAKE
ADRIEN DU PONT
ON THE BLIND SIDE has 3 Chase runs
Thats not a lot for a seasonal debutant
Past winners
Number of chase runs
19 10 5 7 16 8 22 16 6 3 4
One horse had 3 Chase runs
That was a 6yo winning this in 2007
But his 3 runs all came that season
ON THE BLIND SIDE is inexperienced
Maybe has big targets later on
SPRINGTOWN LAKE 5 chase runs
Feels safer and likes the ground
Looks very well treated off 138
His first 3 Chase runs
Racing Post Ratings 145 150 141
Tried to win at Cheltenham Festival
On the back of an absence
Made him a negative that day
Went to Aintree Festival
Failed Generic Angles that race
Poor 7yo record at that festival
ADRIEN DU PONT is interesting
Also failed Generic angles at Aintree
He is a bit more experienced
Was 4th in this race first time out last year
This may just be a bit tougher
Going to make him a saver bet
He will be held up at the back
Selection
£4.00 Each Way SPRINGTOWN LAKE 8/1-10/1
£1.00 Win Bet ADRIEN DU PONT 12/1
£1.00 Win Bet ON THE BLIND SIDE 13/2- 7/1
Ayr 3.25
4/1 Martila, The Steward, 5/1 Fanfan Du Seuil
6/1 Fin And Game, Leoncavallo, 7/1 Nietzsche
10/1 Elvis Mail, 12/1 Keyboard Gangster
14/1 Lake Takapuna.
2m Handicap hurdle
7 Past renewals
6 of the winners
Shared this profile
Aged 5-6-7
Running within 5 weeks
Beaten under 20 lengths last time
Under 20 hurdle starts
13 horses had this profile
6 of them won this race
Shortlist
MARTILLA
NIETZSCHE
NIETZSCHE would be the bet
But he comes from a chase
Selection
Small Stakes
£4.50 Each Way MARTILLA 5/1
£1.50 Win Bet NIETZSCHE 6/1
Wetherby 3.40
5/2 La Bague Au Roi, 4/1 Definitly Red
11/2 Aso, 6/1 Ballyoptic, 6/1 Elegant Escape
13/2 Top Ville Ben, 11/1 Molly The Dolly.
Charlie Hall Chase
Covered this in the week
Past winners
Had the following Chase runs
15 14 15 17 5 5 6 8 11 9 11 19 25 13 19 11 19 14
Last 12 winners had under 20 Chase runs
17 of the last 18 winners had under 20 runs
DEFINITELY RED fails this
ASO fails this as well
MOLLY THE DOLLY has 4 Chase runs
No horse won with under 5 chase runs
Shortlisting 4 horses
LE BAGUE AU ROI
ELEGANT ESCAPE
TOP VILLE BEN
BALLYOPTIC
Have to take a guess
The angles haven't helped much
ELEGANT ESCAPE may need the run
LE BAGUE AU ROI goes well fresh
But she is still a lightly raced mare
May as well go with a split stake bet
Selection
Small Stakes
£5 Win BALLYOPTIC 6/1
£5 Win TOP VILLE BEN 7/1
Newmarket 4.15
5/1 Dance Diva, 11/2 Presidential, 9/1 Flying Pursuit
9/1 Material Girl, 10/1 Howzer Black, 10/1 Swift Approval
12/1 King Of Tonga, 14/1 Global Hope 16/1 Glenn Coco,
16/1 Iconic Knight, 16/1 Typhoon Ten 20/1 Colonel Frank,
20/1 Stay Classy, 25/1 Chosen World 25/1 Custard The Dragon
33/1 London Protocol.
7f Handicap
There is a bit of history
Past winners fitted a pattern
Horses absent over 42 days
Have a 0-36 record in this race
Horses aged 6 or more
Have a 0-57 record in this race
Every past winner
Was aged 3-4-5
Running within 6 weeks
They also had 9st 3lbs or less
Horses with 9st 4lbs or more
Have a 0-39 record in this race
PRESEDENTIAL won this last year
But he did that with less weight
And a very recent 7 day absence
This year he now has 57 days off
Not a match on the race statistics
FLYING PURSUIT is a 6yo
With 9st 8lbs fails aged and weight stats
PRESEDENTIAL fails the absence stats
He too fails the weight angles as well
SWIFT APPROVAL is a 7 year old
He is 2 years older than all past winners
Has more weight than all of them as well
Other horses not matching the profile
ZAP beaten too far and weight problems
TYPHOON TEN has 74 days off the track
And very few winners came from 6f races
COLONEL FRANK faces the same challenges
CUSTARD THE DRAGON absent too long
LONDON PROTOCOL lacks the class
CHOSEN WORLD may not have enough
Having raced once in 186 days
STAY CLASSY is drawn 18 or 18
With a tough weight and absence too
Filly up in distance hardly safe
No 5yo has won this race
With an absence or over 22 days
GLEN COCCO has this problem
His form on soft is very worrying
ICONIC KNIGHT has positives
But he will have to prove he stays
He has never raced over 7f before
Horses up in trip dont score well
GLOBAL HOPE a 4yo up in trip
Not keen on coming from 6f
But unexposed and in form
On his Racing Post Ratings
Last time was a career best figure
But no form on this kind of ground
Shortlist
MATERIAL GIRL is a 3yo filly
We had 3 past winning 3yo fillies
But all 3 were far lighter raced
But she is fit and acts on soft
And does look very well treated
Stall 1 would not be my choice
DANCE DIVA ran 7 days ago
One of my best bets in last weeks message
But she is a filly and has 9st 8lbs
Horses with 9st 4lbs or more are 0-39
Fails the weight statistic is a worry
But she is a pattern winner
And has the ability to win off this mark
DANCE DIVA could be a saver bet
Middleham Park Racing
Run two interesting horses
Decided to go with both of them
KING OF TONGA is a positive
HOWZER BLACK an exposed 3yo
I'd have liked a more recent run
Given his age and number or runs
But a joint career best figure last time
His best numbers are over 7f
Selection
Newmarket 4.15
£4.50 Each Way KING OF TONGA 7/1-8/1
£1.00 Win Bet HOWZER BLACK 11/1-12/1
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES
Sunday
Cork Grand National
Cork 3.20
11/2 The Red Menace, 7/1 Wonderoftheworld, 8/1 Oscar Knight
8/1 Young Paddymc, 10/1 Out Sam, Pont Aven, Progress Drive
12/1 Cloudy Morning, Russian Bill, 14/1 Aherlow, The Gatechecker
14/1 Woods Well, 16/1 Gun Digger, 20/1 Forever Gold
20/1 Glorious Galway, Icantsay.
Cork Grand National
3m 4f Handicap Chase
Number of Chase runs
24 Forever Gold
23 Out Sam
22 Oscar Knight
21 The Gatechecker
19 Icantsay
16 Cloudy Morning
15 Woods Well
11 Ah Littleluck
10 Progress Drive
9 Wonderoftheworld
7 Gun Digger
7 Russian Bill
6 Aherlow
5 Glorious Galway
4 Young Paddymc
3 Pont Aven
3 The Red Menace
OUT SAM won this last year
With 15 Chase runs first time out
The best historical profile
A recent run
2 + runs this season
Under 14 Chase runs
OUT SAM did not match that
Good idea to be more flexible now
These races are getting better
They are now more prestigious
So better types are running in them
Past winners
Had the following chase runs
15 6 5 10 3 12 5 4 8 4 11 6
Still feel the very exposed types
Have to be avoided in these races
The last 12 winners
Had no more than 15 Chase runs
FOREVER GOLD has 24 chase runs
Can't have him as a 12yo first time out
OUT SAM won last year with 15 runs
This year he has had 23 Chase races
Has not been the same horse since
Dont feel he is the right type now
This angle is quite illuminating
Handicap Chases
Listed and Graded Class
Run over 3m 1f and more
Any time of year
Since 2011
Horses aged 10 or more
Over 14 previous chase runs
Absent more than 43 days
Have a 0-174 record
OUT SAM fails this 0-174 record
That just shows in recent years
How older exposed horses
Dont seem to win these anymore
And have not done with an absence
For several years now
OUT SAM is rejected
OSCAR KNIGHT has recent runs
But a 10yo with 22 previous chases
Its 34 months since he last won one
Some ought to be too progressive
Handicap Chases
Listed and Graded Class
Run over 3m 1f and more
Any time of year since 2008
Fields of 10 runners or more
Horses aged 10 or more
Over 20 previous chase runs
Carrying 10st 12lbs or more
Have a 0-129 record in these races
OSCAR KNIGHT shares this 0-129 angle
THE GATEKEEPER with 21 chases
Too exposed and pulled up recently
Had his chance when 3rd last year
Not run a good race over fences since
ICANTSAY has 19 Chase runs
Never won off his current rating
Recent runs are an advantage
Past 16 winners
Had the following absences
216 21 25 20 21 14 31 32
29 210 16 7 7 13 16 14
Seasonal debutants won in 2018 2007
The 14 other winners had recent runs
Don't mind a debutant
If the horse has strong claims
WOODS WELL has a long absence
Not safe enough carrying topweight
October November December
Graded Handicap Chases
Run over 3m 1f and more
Horses aged 8
Absent more than 56 days
Have a 0-76 record since 2003
8yo debutants are best avoided
WOODS WELL fails this angle
YOUNG PADDYMC is interesting
Started of as ante Post favourite
He does look well handicapped
There are 2 strikes against him
Thomas Gibney his trainer
His runners absent over 110 days
Have a very modest 1-78 record
Hardly ideal for a Graded Chase
This also interests me
Listed and Graded Chases
Run over 3m 3f and further
Any time of year
Horses with under 7 runs
Absent more than 77 days
Have an overall 0-69 record
YOUNG PADDYMC has 183 days off
Only has 4 previous chase races
He shares that 0-69 record
The only seasonal debutant winners
Had more chasing experience
My angles urge caution about him
The last 17 Cork National winners
Had the following runs that season
0 5 5 2 2 6 3 5 5 5 0 7 3 4 3 3 3
Horses with just 1 run that season
Have not won this in a very long time
GLORIOUS GALWAY has this problem
Not safe coming from a 2m 4f race
And he is sired by Westerner as well
Horses sired by Westerner
Running in Class 2 or higher
Have a 0-50 record over 3m 3f +
PROGRESS DRIVE has 1 run this year
Beaten 46 lengths in that looks too far
THE RED MENACE is only a 5yo
He only has 3 career starts
Very young age for this kind of test
Graded Handicap Chases
Run over 3m 1f and more
Any time of year
Horses aged 5
Have won just 1 of these races
In an overall 1-14 record
That was Gallant Nuit in 2009
That was in a smaller field
The horse had a recent run
And had twice as many chase runs
THE RED MENACE is opposed
GUN DIGGER has 1 run this season
Plenty of weight with 11st 7lbs
The last 10 Cork Nationals
Horses with 11st 4lbs or more
Have a 0-19 record and none won
GUN DIGGER fails a breeding stat
Horses sired by Stowaway
Running in Class 2 or higher
Have a 0-30 record over 3m 2f +
CLOUDY MORNING is 11 years old
Running 8 days ago he looks unsafe
That race was 2m over hurdles
Handicap Chases
Listed and Graded Class
Run over 3m 1f or more
Any time of year
Horses from a hurdle race
That was 2m 5f or shorter
Running within 19 days
Return a 0-34 record since 1997
PONT AVEN has 3 chase starts
Inexperienced but not hard to like
The 2014 winner had 3 chase runs
It has been done before
The arguments against him
He does have 11st 4lbs weight
That is more than any recent winner
Thats not something that looks good
This is interesting
Graded Handicap Chases
Run over 3m 2f and more
Any time of year
Horses with under 4 chase runs
Carrying 11st or more weight
There is a modest 2-35 record
Presenting Percy did it in 2017
Shotgun Paddy did it in 2014
The only ones that have
PONT AVEN tries to be the 3rd
I dont mind just 3 chase runs
But throw in a tough weight
His profile starts to creek a bit
RUSSIAN BILL ran 7 days ago
That was in a 2m 6f hurdle tae
Little bit uncomfortable with that
His Damsire is Royal Applause
With his stamina index of just 7.6f
Having never raced beyond 3 miles
There must be a stamina doubt
WONDEROFTHEWORLD is a 7yo
He won last time at Gowran Park
AHERLOW was 3rd in that race
I like both horses profile
WONDEROFTHEWORLD
Not ideal Sired by Beneficial
His runners in Listed/Graded class
Running over 3m 2f and more
Have a modest 2-98 record
His doubt is the extra 3 furlongs
AHERLOW is rated 116
First impressions off that rating
He might not have the class
But the 2013 2014 2015 winners
Were rated only 109 118 115
So low rated horses have won
AHERLOW was beaten 19 lengths
Further than the 3 like him
But he may have a chance here
He looks to me like a huge horse
May have needed 2 prep runs this year
Bred to stay based on his pedigree
If he gets in a rhythm
He could be a big runner off 10st
He's only had 6 previous chase runs
Past winners
Had the following chase runs
15 6 5 10 3 12 5 4 8 4 11 6
Plenty have won like him
Finally
He is sired by Oscar
The dam sire is Rosellier
Oscar sired the 2011 winner
Cork National
Horses with Rosellier as the dam sire
6 horses ran
One Pulled up at 14/1
The other 5 ran very well
Finished 2nd in 2011
Finished 2nd in 2011
Finished 3rd in 2013
Finished 4th in 2012
Finished 6th in 2015
Provisional Selection
AHERLOW 20/1-25/1-33/1
Each Way
*********************************************************
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Best Wishes
Guy Ward
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk
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