Mathematician 1893
1 Main Account bet
1 Optional Account bet
Main Account Bet
Newbury 2.40
SIR REGINALD 10/1 Each Way
TELLOVOI 12/1 Saver
O p t i o n a l A c c o u n t
Newmarket 1.45
JACK OF DIAMONDS 7/1
Each Way
Only nine Previews today and a mixture of some
Scoop 6 races and other races that have treated
me kindly over the years. The normal Drill today.
It's the hardest day of the week. Unlikely to find
many winners especially with the Scoop 6 being
an added burden. Decided 1 bet on each account.
Newbury 2.40
SIR REGINALD 10/1 Each Way
TELLOVOI 12/1 Saver
I was open minded about this race. I liked my
angles which pointed to these two horses from
admittedly small sample sizes. I was happy to
leave him staked smaller but as 3 non runners
came out and SIR REGINALD was available at
a double figure price I decided to risk him. Its
obvious a lot of people have given up trying to
predict this horse. Maybe wisely so and some
will worry about the drying ground. I think he
is a horse that needs a straight track and I am
happy that he can win this race much as there
is always a chance with this horse he wont do.
The saver is there because I would be simply
distraught to watch my 2nd best profile win it
without some sort of cover bet at a big price.
SIR REGINALD is 11/1 Bet365 VC W Hill Betfair
SIR REGINALD is 10/1 Tote Betfred SpBet Stan J Ladbrokes
S c o o p 6
I will send the perms for this Wretched bet in an
hour or two. We have raised just short of £12,000
so if we don't win lets hope someone else does.
F r i d a y 's S u m m a r y
Yesterdays message started very well but faded.
We won the day with the two bets but it was not
a great message otherwise. Two bets one winner
and nice to see VOLUME land the first bet which
made sure we couldn't lose. He was available at
4/1 for some time but ended up 9/4 after support.
The second bet lost and I think I underestimated
the favourite there. Overall we nicked a bit and
it's nice to grind a profit from a wobbly message.
P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S
N e w m a r k e t 1.45
9/2 Evident, 11/2 Until Midnight, 13/2 Illustrious Prince
7/1 Jack Of Diamonds, 8/1 Presumido, 8/1 Shaolin
8/1 Sheikh The Reins 8/1 Staffhoss, 12/1 Smokethatthunders
16/1 Zaitsev 20/1 Front Page News, 25/1 Duke Of Destiny.
* This is a 7f handicap for 0-78 rated horses.
* Newmarket has 17 past renewals of this race
* There are 202 similar races elsewhere
* Worth bearing in mind horses aged 6 or more are 1-51
* That's in this race but they do win elsewhere
EVIDENT has a complicated profile. With seasonal debutant
4 year olds like EVIDENT with 5-6-7 runs I can find a winner
that had 9st 4lbs but EVIDENT has 9st 7lbs. Not too much to
consider a negative. I'd see him as a positive without being
perfect. Neither FRONT PAGE NEWS or DUKE OF DESTINY
did enough last time. ILLUSTRIOUS PRINCE has a difficult
draw in Stall 1 and older horses do score badly in this race.
SMOKETHATTHUNDERS only has an average profile. There
is a case for PRESUMIDO but he was beaten when stepping
up to this class last time. He could still be a Class horse and
it won't be a surprise if he wins but this is a Grade 1 Track
and he isn't proven on turf and his trainer states he may be
better on a flatter track. SHEIKH THE REINS has better form
on Sand but that wouldn't worry he as his numbers suggest
he has run well enough on Grass to win this. The problem
I have with SHEIKH THE REINS is his stable are out of form
and don't have many winners.
* UNTIL MIDNIGHT is 4 and won a 7f handicap last time
* He is now on a 4 timer and up in class today
* He has won 0-55 0-60 and 0-70 races and this is a 0-78
* Could go well but he does have a bit to prove today
* STAFFHOSS - There is a narrative for this horse
* He has excuses for poor recent runs with a weak jockey
* Unlikely winner but dangerous to rule out
* SHAOLIN - I can't rule him out
* ZAITSEV - may have needed his last run and could go well
* JACK OF DIAMONDS is 0-8 on turf with all his wins on Sand
* I don't mind that as many of his turf runs were excusable
* His Racing Post Ratings suggest he is very well treated
Selection
JACK OF DIAMONDS 7/1
Each Way
T h i r s k 2.15
2/1 Zeela, 9/2 Bacall, 9/2 Ventura Shadow
7/1 Clodovil Doll, 7/1 Pastoral Girl, 9/1 Mystic And Artist
12/1 Harry´s Dancer, 16/1 Secret Of Dubai
66/1 Featsdontfailmenow.
This is a 2yo maiden over 5f for fillies. I just think
ZEELA did enough on her debut to expect her to
go close. She is far safer than Ventura Shadow a
low drawn debutant whose trainer has stated he
would be surprised if she won. BACALL is likely
to be a threat but is unraced and ZEELA probably
has enough with experience behind her to win.
The unraced MYSTIC AND ARTIST could be her
main problem. Shrewd yard and well backed as
well. This leads me to a safety first split stake bet.
Selection
ZEELA 11/8 Win Bet
MYSTIC AND ARTIST 11/10 Place Bet
N e w b u r y 2.40
5/1 Fort Knox, 6/1 Indignant
8/1 Sir Reginald, 8/1 Trader Jack, 9/1 Monsieur Chevalier
10/1 Chil The Kite, 12/1 Bronze Angel
14/1 Dream Walker, 20/1 Kenny Powers
20/1 Tellovoi, 25/1 Set The Trend.
* This is a Class 2 handicap over 7f
* There are no past renewals of this race
* There is no persuasive draw bias either
* I have to base my analysis on 34 similar races in May
* They tell me to oppose 8 year olds like SET THE TREND
* Horses that came from 6f or shorter were 6-138
* Horses aged 6 or more doing this are 0-51
* MONSIEUR CHEVALIER fail this
* TRADER JACK isn't safe from 6f in Class 4 last time
* Not from a poor stable and with a poor strike rate
* He has never run at 7f before and is out of the handicap
* It could all click and he could win but he is risky
* KENNY POWERS isn't running well enough
* Horses aged 4 racing first time out are 2-43
* They won off marks of 92 and 85
* FORT KNOX has to do this rated 104
* No 4yo debutant like him came from a Pattern race
* INDIGNANT has a similar problem as a 4yo debutant
* None came from a Pattern race as she does
* INDIGNANT is rated 98 when the 2 winners won off 92 and 85
* She is also a filly and no 4yo filly won first time out
* Her trainer says she will come on for the run
* CHIL THE KITE - Not keen he drops from 10f to 7f
* I don't like his 56 day absence much either
* CHIL THE KITE is also rated 104
* The highest rated winner in 34 similar races was 102
* That was the Victoria Cup winner last Saturday
* BRONZE ANGEL drops from 8f after 1 run this season
* Horses aged 5 or older doing this were 1-28
* Those without a run in the past 10 days were 0-25
* BRONZE ANGEL may need another run this season
* I wouldn't be sure about that but there are other worries
* He won the 9f Cambridgeshire as a 3 year old
* Now a 5 year old this 7f trip is not certain to suit him as much
* He hasn't raced at 7f since he was a 2 year old
* DREAM WALKER is 5 and comes from a 7f handicap
* He's only won in Class 4 or lower off a rating of 77 or lower
* Horses with this profile were 1-21
* That winner had fewer runs and a more recent race
* DREAM WALKER will need a career best today
* Thats asking a lot and Stall one may not be any help
Shortlist
* TELLOVOI is 6 and comes from a 7f handicap
* He has a run in the past 3 weeks
* He was beaten last time but not by more than 10 lengths
* Similar horses had a 2-13 record
* TELLOVOI is very hard to read with many runs abroad
* Not keen on his stable but they are doing well with him
* On Profiles he needs to be shortlisted
* SIR REGINALD is 6 and comes from a 7f handicap
* He has a run in the past 3 weeks
* He was beaten last time but not by more than 10 lengths
* Similar horses had a 2-13 record
* SIR REGINALD has a good profile but is hard to catch right
* He has not yet won beyond 6.5f either
* In his favour all his wins have been on a straight track
* I think that could be the key to him
* Yes he is tricky and hard to with
* His best numbers come on straight tracks though
* I think he is crying out for this extra distance
* Of course he may flatter to deceive but I feel he can win
Selection
SIR REGINALD 10/1 Each Way
TELLOVOI 12/1 Saver
N e w m a r k e t 2.55
2/1 Parbold, 9/2 Aeolus, 5/1 Dorothy B, 7/1 Toofi
12/1 Gamesome, 16/1 Coulsty, 20/1 Complicit
20/1 Miracle Of Medinah, 20/1 Windfast, 25/1 Alutiq.
* The King Charles II Stakes is a Listed race over 7f for 3yo's
* This has never been a good trial race
* Recent winners had 6 2 3 4 3 1 4 5 5 6 previous runs
* I would stay with lighter raced horses
* MIRACLE OF MEDINAH and ALUTIQ look too exposed
* COMPLICIT didn't do enough last time
* I feel the same about WINDFAST as well
* COULSTY has the longest absence and lowest rating
* Not keen on that and he is a bit exposed to win first time
* GAMESOME - 1 winner came from a 2yo maiden
* He had 1 run and GAMESOME has 2
* Not quite right but not enough to make him a negative
* DOROTHY B was beaten further than any past winner last time out
* Badly hampered in that race I would forgive her that
* TOOFI is on the upgrade and just 1 concern about him
* After 5 runs I'd have expected some pattern form and he has none
* He also comes up in distance and most doing that were lighter raced
* PARBOLD is the highest rated horse by 4lbs
* He has a decent profile the same as 2006 winner Jeremy
* AEOLUS has the same profile and is also a positive
Selection
PARBOLD 3/1
Win Bet
I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt. Whilst below par
last time it is interesting it was a career best Racing Post
rating which suggests he has trained on.
N e w b u r y 3.15
11/4 Satellite, 3/1 Windshear, 7/2 Cannock Chase
7/1 Extra Noble, 8/1 Collaboration, 9/1 Master Of Finance
10/1 Aussie Valentine, 25/1 Arantes.
* This is a 3yo handicap over 10f
* I looked at all similar races in May
* SATELLITE only has 1 career start
* Horses with 1 run had a 1-11 record
* That winner was a seasonal debutant though
* Horses with 1 rum from a 3yo maiden were 0-7
* Horses with identical profiles to him were 4 6 2 2 3 8 3
* SATELLITE may win but no horse so far like him has
* EXTRA NOBLE has a chance and was almost right
* I wanted a bit less weight and a bit shorter absence
* EXTRA NOBLE is drawn 1 as well which I don't like
* COLLABORATION - I can't rule him out or match him either
* CANNOCK CHASE - I gave him a big chance each way
* Statistically another run this year would have helped
* WINDSHEAR has gone up 11lbs for winning last time
* I ran his profile found 3 horses trying it and they were W 11 W
* WINDSHEAR came out with the best profile
* I think the clever bet is to make Satellite a place bet
Selection
WINDSHEAR 7/2 - Half your stake to win
SATELLITE 4/5 - Half your stake to Place
T h i r s k 3.25
6/1 Six Wives, 13/2 Oldjoesaid, 7/1 Lastchancelucas
8/1 Tax Free, 9/1 Bronze Beau, 9/1 Tumblewind, 10/1 Hoofalong
10/1 Prince Regal, 11/1 Keep It Dark, 12/1 Go Go Green
12/1 Imperial Legend, Ambitious Icarus, 16/1 First In Command
20/1 Blue Bullet, 25/1 Alaskan Bullet.
This 5f handicap is part of the Scoop 6 so I will include
it but it doesn't warrant a long preview. The best I can
do here is a shortlist as it looks simply too difficult.
* There are 15 handicaps at Thirsk since 2010 with 12 + runners
* Horses drawn 1-2-3-4 have a 1-52 record in these races
* I would take out the very low draws
* Tax Free - Oldjoesaid - Blue Bullet - Hoofalong fail this
* There are 121 similar races in May
* Horses aged 9 or more are just 2-113
* Tax Free - Oldjoesaid -First In Command fail this
* Alaskan Bullet is out as a seasonal debutant
* Prince Regal - Ambitious Icarus didn't do enough last time
* I can't rule any of the others out
* The Shortlist is far too big with 7 runners
* It's why I wouldn't have done the race without the Scoop 6
* Six Wives - Lastchancelucas - Bronze Beau
* Tumblewind - Keep It Dark - Go Go Green - Imperial Legend
* I have to guess the selection
* I'd going with runs this year and a high draw
Selection
TUMBLEWIND 7/1 Win Bet
LASTCHANCELUCAS 7/1 Saver
N e w m a r k e t 3.30
11/4 Stomp, 9/2 Stars Above Me, 6/1 Fear Or Favour
8/1 Nova Champ, 12/1 Charles Molson, 12/1 Deeds Not Words
12/1 Eastern Impact, 14/1 Meritocracy, 14/1 Sleeper King
16/1 Expert, 20/1 Master Of Suspense, 25/1 Peterkin.
* This is a Class 2 Handicap over 6f for 3 year olds
* Newmarket have 17 renewals of this race
* There are 35 similar races elsewhere
* Fillies have a 3-87 record in these 50 races
* Fillies that had under 5 career starts were 0-24
* STARS ABOVE ME fails this with 3 runs
* She is also the only filly in the race
* PETERKIN has raced once this season
* Coming up two grades in Class will probably beat him
* He has far more runs than any horse that managed that
* Horses from 5f races struggle
* They are 1-40 in this race and 4-87 in the 35 similar races
* DEEDS NOT WORDS comes from a 5f race
* No horse managed that with 1 run this season (0-27)
* CHARLES MOLSON fails that same statistic
* No horse came from 5f with more than 9 career runs
* DEEDS NOT WORDS fails that with 9 runs
* SLEEPER KING is a seasonal debutant
* Seasonal debutants don't score well in this race though
* Only 3 have managed that in the last 37 years
* He comes from 5f and has topweight
* I found 1 winner like him with less weight
* Difficult to win with that profile but not a negative
* EXPERT comes from a Listed race
* His profile is almost identical to last years winner
* The difference being EXPERT has 2 more runs
* Doesn't sound a lot but for a 3yo it is quite a difference
* I couldn't rule him out with strong track form
* MERITOCRACY comes from a 6f handicap
* Horses doing this with more than 9 runs were 3-49
* Those without a run within 7 days were 1-43
* MERITOCRACY was beaten further than all 3 winners last time
* NOVA CHAMP fails the same statistic
* NOVA CHAMP won last time out in a 6f handicap
* He is a bit too exposed to winning again
* MASTER OF SUSPENSE was beaten in a 6f maiden last time
* Two horses had this profile finishing 3rd and 4th
* There are better profiles in this race
Shortlist
* EASTERN IMPACT has enough to shortlist
* I found 1 winner just like him with 4 runs
* I made him a negative last time but a positive today
* FEAR OR FAVOUR won a 6f handicap last time
* He has 1 run this season and 4 career starts
* Horses with this profile won 1 similar race
* STOMP won a 6f handicap last time
* He has 2 runs this season and a run in the last fortnight
* Only 1 horse with 6-7-8 tried to win with his profile
* That horse finished 2nd
* STOMP would be a neutral positive on that statistic
* STOMP has won 2 Class 4 races in 0-85 and 0-80 handicaps
* This is a much harder 0-101 grade todays
* I looked at horses winning Class 4 handicaps last time
* Horses doing that were 2-25 both winners had 4 runs
* Those with 5 or more like STOMP were 0-18
* Those that ran within 2 weeks were 0-9
* Looking at STOMP statistically from this angle there are doubts
* Horses that win Class 4 handicaps are best with 4 runs
* They are best running 2-4 weeks ago
* FEAR OR FAVOUR has that profile and does now look safer
Selection
EASTERN IMPACT 12/1 Each Way to half Stakes
FEAR OR FAVOUR 6/1 Win Bet to half Stakes
N e w b u r y 3.50
10/11 Olympic Glory, 4/1 Verrazano, 7/1 Tullius
8/1 Montiridge, 10/1 Chopin, 12/1 Top Notch Tonto
20/1 Sruthan, 100/1 Empire Storm.
The Lockinge is a Group 1 race over a mile and no strong
opinion. I do like OLYMPIC GLORY who is top rated by 7lbs
and he will probably win. The strikes against him are that
although 4yo debutants are brilliant in this race he is just a
little bit more experienced than ideal. He is also a bit tricky
and needs a small field. I think his class will probably win
it but given his quirks and price I would prefer to go down
the split stake route taking something else to place as well.
Selection
OLYMPIC GLORY 11/10 Win Bet
MONTIRIDGE 11/10 Place Bet
N e w b u r y 5.00
4/1 Angelic Air, 5/1 Aertex, 5/1 Token Of Love
7/1 Tides Reach, 10/1 Dutch S, 12/1 Stepping Out
14/1 Arranger, 14/1 Heavens Edge, 14/1 Stosur, 16/1 Baby Bush
20/1 Bridie Ffrench, 20/1 Cay Dancer, 20/1 Venus Grace
25/1 Aristocratic Duty, 25/1 Red Lady
* This is Fillies handicap over 7f
* Newbury has 17 renewals since 1998
* This is the only race of its kind in May
* Horses that came from 3yo maidens have a poor 2-55 record
* That is a bad record form horses from maidens
* The 2 winners that did win had 5-6 career starts
* Horses from 3yo maidens with under 5 runs were 0-49
* ANGELIC AIR fails this statistic with just 2 runs from a 3yo maiden
* This statistic tells me she has lots to prove with topweight
* VENUS GRACE also fails this maiden statistic
* ARISTOCRATIC DUTY also fails it
* AERTEX won a 3yo handicap last time
* Horses like AERTEX from 3yo handicaps over 7f were 2-53
* Those like him that won last time out were 0-13
* Those like him running within a month were 0-37
* BABY BUSH comes from a 3yo handicap
* She didn't do enough last time out
* RED LADY has the same problem
* I wanted more from CAY DANCER last time out
* BRIDIE FFRENCH is wrong from a Class 5 handicap with 3 runs
* Horses from Nurseries had a weak 1-41 record
* The only winner had 6 runs and came down from 8f
* Not really the ideal route for this race
* ARRANGER and DUTCH S have this against them
* HEAVENS EDGE looks vulnerable to me
* STOSUR is not like any winner
* Horses from 2yo maidens do well and have won 6 renewals
Shortlist
* STEPPING OUT comes from an 8f 2yo maiden
* With 3 runs its the same profile as the 2000 winner
* I'd give her a chance from a stable twice winning this
* STEPPING OUT needs considering at 25/1 and more
* TIDES REACH - Her profile is fine
* She can win if Stall 1 doesn't harm her
* And if her trainer has got her fit or not
* I have my doubts about both
* TOKEN OF LOVE comes from a 2yo maiden
* Worries me she has 1 run from a 7f race
* Horses from 2yo maidens with 1 run were 0-2
* None of the 2yo maidens winners ran over 7f
* TOKEN OF LOVE isn't exactly right but is shortlisted
* Quality stable and her failings are superficial
Selection
****************************************************
****************************************************
TOKEN OF LOVE 2/1
Win Bet
Best Wishes
Guy Ward
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk
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