Mathematician 1819

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M e s s a g e C o n t e n t

End of a very disruptive week partly with the
bad weather and those miserable sand cards
but mainly going down with something. I feel
today's the last days this will affect messages.

Saturday messages take plenty of planning
when fit and well but when a little under the
weather as I am today there are bound to be
a few holes in the message and gaps that are
normally plugged. I have done the best I can
but this was always going to be difficult and
it was never going to be a flawless message.

I am not going to put a bet out when I know
I'm under par. I do have options though that
I quite like in "Message highlight". I see this
as the end of the disruption now. We've had
to suffer it and we can now put it behind us.

M e s s a g e H i g h l i g h t s

I thought the following 2 were worth betting
and I would see these as my best bets today.

Haydock 2.55

RED ROCCO 20/1

Each Way

Haydock 4.35

SIXTY SOMETHING 10/1 Win Bet

SERGEANT DICK 8/1 Win Bet

F r i d a y ' s R e v i e w

It was a little more detailed yesterday but not
by much but a W W L record from 3 Previews
did no harm to confidence given it's not easy
to think clearly when your under the weather.
Still better to get any sickness out of the way
now rather than at Cheltenham and I do feel
I have beaten the back of it now thankfully.

P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S

H a y d o c k 1.45

9/4 Aurore D4estruval, 7/2 Handiwork, 5/1 Hawk High
6/1 Sea Claria, 8/1 The Green Ogre, 9/1 Slipper Satin
16/1 Abracadabra Sivola, 20/1 Cafe Au Lait.

The Victor Ludorum is a 4yo hurdle. It's a messy
race. A mix of inexperienced and experienced
previous winners some with flat form others not.
I wasn't convinced HANDIWORK was getting any
better. His numbers are not progressive. He may
not need to improve to win but this is a smaller
horse on heavy ground and that always worries
me. AURORE D4ESTRUVAL could improve past
him but I'm conscious that She has less hurdling
experience than most and is a short price. More
complications with two more fillies SEA CLARIA
and SLIPPER SATIN hard to read but in this race
where fillies have done very well over the years.
I think everything points to a split stake bet here.

AURORE D4ESTRUVAL Win Bet 15/8

HAWK HIGH 5/4 Place Bet

A s c o t 2.05

15/8 Many Clouds, 5/2 Gevrey Chambertin
11/2 Baby Shine, 6/1 Ely Brown, 7/1 O4faolains Boy
10/1 Third Intention, 200/1 Spike Mac.

The Reynoldstown statistics what few there are
all point to MANY CLOUDS. That disappoints me
a bit as he is a short price I don't like relying on
his stable and his trainer has suggested he may
just come on for the run. In 17 past renewals all
horses aged 8 or more are 0-32 so ELY BROWN
and BABY SHINE have that against them. None
of the last 17 winners lacked any chase runs as
GEVREY CHAMBERTIN does. You want between
3 and 6 previous chase runs. THIRD INTENTION
has 11 runs and is a bit exposed. This seems to
always go to a last time out winner which does
raise a question mark about O4FAOLAINS BOY
Pulling up last time after 2 Chase runs. My stats
do all point to MANY CLOUDS. It's a poor frame
and no each way options. My angles are clearly
pointing to MANY CLOUDS. I would make sure I
couldn't lose money on the race if he won but I
don't feel excited enough to suggest a full bet.

Selection

MANY CLOUDS 2/1

L i n g f i e l d 2.15

3/1 Lilac Tree, 7/2 Sagesse, 8/1 Music Man
8/1 Scottish Star, 10/1 Knockgraffon Lad
10/1 Ocean Applause, 10/1 Presburg, 14/1 Mawaakef
14/1 St Ignatius, 14/1 Thecornishcowboy
16/1 Gabrial4s Star, 25/1 Deia Sunrise.

* This is a 12f handicap for 0-85 rated horses
* Inexperienced horses do win this races
* None were like SAGESSE though
* 4yo fillies from 12f handicaps were just 1-24
* That winner had 10 runs and she has just 3
* MUSIC MAN is also inexperienced with 2 runs
* I couldn't find a 4yo winning from a maiden like him
* Not going up in distance or absent over a month
* LILAC TREE won a 12f handicap last time
* I looked at what type of 4 year olds followed up to win
* They all had at least 11 runs and ran within 16 days
* LILAC TREE is absent 20 days and has 8 career runs
* Not a negative but not a perfect match either
* THECORNISHCOWBOY - Weak profile and draw
* OCEAN APPLAUSE is 4 and comes from 10f
* Horses aged 4 doing this were only 4-65
* None like OCEAN APPLAUSE won last time out
* Those with 10 or more runs were 0-38
* OCEAN APPLAUSE fails both angles
* His profile is not good enough to interest me
* KNOCKGRAFFON LAD - Not my first choice
* Not aged 7 absent 64 days and a career high mark
* DEIA SUNRISE isn't running well enough
* GABRIAL4S STAR - Absent 151 days is a problem
* I can find a 5yo winner doing this though
* GABRIAL4S STAR can't be ruled out
* ST IGNATIUS - Average profile but not for me
* Not with a career high mark
* Not when his form here is inferior to other sand tracks

Shortlist

* PRESBURG - A poor last run damages his profile
* Possible excuse that he didn't handle Southwell last time
* It was a better class race than this so he's respected
* SCOTTISH STAR won a 13f handicap last time
* He should be shortlisted
* MAWAAKEF has an acceptable profile

Selection

PRESBURG 6/1 Win Bet

MAWAAKEF 14/1 Win Bet

Wincanton 2.30

No preview. Too many runners. I do like the record of
Paul Nicholls lightly raced hurdlers in this race and if
forced to bet it would be MINELLAHALFCENTURY e/w

Selection

MINELLAHALFCENTURY 9/2

Each Way

H a y d o c k 2.55

5/1 Hawkes Point, 5/1 Our Father, 7/1 Merry King
8/1 Loch Ba, 8/1 Well Refreshed, 8/1 Wychwoods Brook
9/1 Emperor4s Choice, Across The Bay, 14/1 Nuts N Bolts
14/1 Rigadin De Beauchene, 16/1 Soll, 16/1 Wellforth
20/1 Le Reve, 20/1 Red Rocco.

* This is a 3m 5f Handicap Chase.
* Haydock's has had 14 renewals of this race
* It's the only similar race in Febuary
* None of the 14 winners were 6 year olds
* None came from Novice Handicap Chases
* LE REVE does this and is a 6 year old
* I would avoid him because of that
* Past winners had the following Chase starts
* 5 11 13 11 14 5 5 11 7 6 9 3 28 7
* I would prefer 5-14 chase runs ideally
* Horses with 15 or more chase starts are 1-52
* The more chase runs the less chance you have
* WELLFORTH does not appeal with 25 chase runs
* Not from a career high mark
* OUR FATHER only has 4 runs
* He also has a 77 day break longer than most winners
* It also bothers me he has raced just once this season
* Past winners had the following runs this season
* 5 2 2 3 4 2 5 3 1 4 Fto 3 3 6
* Clearly he goes well fresh and is talented
* No surprise if he wins but this is a gruelling test
* I want something with more runs this season
* His Sire hasn't had a winner beyond 3m2f yet either
* OUR FATHER has too many doubts for me
* The longest absent winner was 91 days
* RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE has been off 301 days
* I don't want to risk him with 14 chase runs already
* NUTS N BOLTS is an 8 year old
* Horses aged 8 have a modest 4-52 record
* He won a easier race here first time out this year
* Pulling up last time is not a good preparation
* He needs a career best having only won Class 3 races
* ACROSS THE BAY is 10 with 11st 12lbs
* 12 of the 14 winners had 11st 1lbs or less
* Horses with 11st 2lbs or more were 2-46
* Both big weight winners were younger
* They had fewer Chase runs as well
* ACROSS THE BAY has plenty to prove off topweight
* Not well treated and maybe a prep race for the National
* LOCH BA ran well last time before fading
* An early mistake could have been significant
* So could a lack of stamina as he isn't sure to stay
* This is a far stiffer track than Warwick
* My main objection is his stamina doubts
* With 15 Chase runs he is on the exposed side
* He needs a career best over an unknown trip
* There were 3 winners aged 7 all were quite similar
* They were all 1st or 2nd last time out
* They all had 10st 6lbs or less weight
* They all had 5 6 8 previous Chase runs
* MERRY KING is 7 and has 11st 2lbs
* More weight and more chase runs than any 7yo winner
* He's had 4 tough races this season already
* Not sure you want a recent run in this race
* Look at horses that ran within a month
* Those that came from a handicap chase
* There's a surprisingly poor 1-64 record from these types
* That winner ran 7 days before over 4m 1f
* He (Young Kenny) fell at the first fence on his last run
* That doesn't count and the implication is this
* You don't want a recent run in a handicap chase
* MERRY KING fails that with a recent run
* EMPEROR4S CHOICE also fails the same angle
* He won a handicap chase just 14 days ago
* Up in Class and weight he needs a career best
* WYCHWOODS BROOK has a recent run
* We know horses with recent runs in handicaps struggle
* WYCHWOODS BROOK won the Peter Marsh Chase
* He caused a big shock in that race
* Not sure I'd trust him to reproduce that form
* He has only has 3 proper chase races before
* Past winners had the following National Hunt runs
* 15 15 23 20 31 21 18 12 18 15 16 10 38 23
* WYCHWOODS BROOK short with 10 runs
* SOLL comes from a recent handicap chase
* Thats a poor profile in 14 past renewals
* I don't see good enough reasons to go with him

Shortlist

* Welsh National Form could be significant
* 5 of the last 6 winners all ran in the Welsh National

* HAWKES POINT comes from the Welsh National
* 5 of the last 6 winners all ran in the Welsh National
* Enough positives to shortlist as a lightly raced chaser
* His main flaw is 11st 6lbs not an easy weight to defy
* Past winners had the following National Hunt runs
* 15 15 23 20 31 21 18 12 18 15 16 10 38 23
* HAWKES POINT is a touch short with 11 runs
won this last year
* He was improving then and on a hat trick
* This year he pulled up last time out
* There is a fair case he didn't like Chepstow last time
* 5 of the last 6 winners all ran in the Welsh National like him
* This Flatter track should be far more suitable

* RED ROCCO has pulled up in his last 2 runs
* I would overlook that fact
* One was not unexpected as a 6yo in the Welsh National
* I made him a negative for various reasons
* He was coming back too soon after Chepstow for one
* He was unlucky in running as well last time
* I like his profile otherwise with 7 Chase runs
* Not a perfect profile but none have and he is 20/1

Selection

RED ROCCO 20/1

Each Way

A s c o t 3.15

4/1 Heath Hunter, 13/2 Bourne, 13/2 Like Minded
13/2 Two Rockers, 8/1 Lough Kent, 10/1 Kaylif Aramis
12/1 Art Professor, 12/1 Bygones Sovereign, 14/1 Stopped Out
16/1 Kuilsriver, 16/1 Leo Luna, 20/1 Changing The Guard
25/1 Foxcub, 33/1 Dan Breen, 33/1 Seymour Eric.

* This is a 2m3f 110y handicap hurdle.
* I looked at the following.
* 2m 3f and 2m 4f February Handicap Hurdles in Class A B C
* There are 75 of these races
* I looked at horses similar to the 7 year old HEATH HUNTER
* Horses that won novice hurdles last time out
* When having under 4 hurdle runs
* Coming from 2m2f or shorter
* When aged 6 or more
* There was a 1-15 record
* That winner was younger aged 6 and had much less weight
* That winner was Bourne winning this race back in 2012
* Symmetrically BOURNE also runs in this race again today
* BOURNE was 4th in this race last year as well
* He fumbled the last which cost him his chance
* Not a bad run in 4th considering he had 11st 7lbs
* BOURNE today has 13lbs less weight than last year
* I think there is a good case for BOURNE but he is quirky
* TWO ROCKERS has statistical question marks
* I don't like 1 run this season when down from 3m
* Or when absent 84 days and having topweight
* LEO LUNA is out with 1 run this year and similar issues
* ART PROFESSOR is a bit exposed for a career best
* BYGONES SOVEREIGN - May be 1 grade higher than ideal

Shortlist

HEATH HUNTER - I see him as Saver material no more
LIKE MINDED - His age drags his profile down a bit
BOURNE - His role could be Place only or split stake
LOUGH KENT - Impossible to read but top connections

No Selection
Just a Shortlist

L i n g f i e l d 3.25

3/1 Rebellious Guest, 6/1 Consign, 6/1 George Guru
6/1 Talented Kid, 7/1 Royal Prize, 8/1 Spa4s Dancer
12/1 Birdman, 12/1 Luhaif, 14/1 Mia4s Boy
20/1 Lord Ofthe Shadows, 25/1 Lowther, 25/1 Tellovoi.

* This is a Mile Handicap for 0-97 rated horses
* There are only 4 Class 2 handicaps like it in February
* Not a big enough sample for any meaningful angles
* I will make the following observations
* There are 47 Class 2 handicaps at every distance
* Horses aged 4 with 12 or more career starts are 6-53
* They all ran within 35 days
* CONSIGN has 13 runs and is absent 105 days
* He may be too exposed to defy that absence
* LORD OFTHE SHADOWS - Not for me exposed with absence
* SPA4S DANCER - Absent longer than any winner his age
* LOWTHER- Hammered over 10f just 7 days ago
* I think it's asking a lot for a 9yo to overcome that
* TELLOVOI didn't run well enough last time
* With no Lingfield form he is out
* ROYAL PRIZE - I think Stall 1 is the worst draw
* With1 just 1 run in 141 days I don't fancy him
* MIA4S BOY is 10 and older than ideal
* Can't rule him out but he's just unplaced in a weaker race
* TALENTED KID is absent 141 days
* He is unorthodox as a 5yo with just 6 runs
* GEORGE GURU has to go up in distance
* As a 7yo without a recent run It worries me
* He is a horse I need a large sample size for
* I could find out how many similar horses have won
* Without that we can only assume
* LUHAIF is hard to read
* I'd give him a chance on his c/d form
* BIRDMAN comes from a conditions race
* Unsafe profile but I would keep him on side
* REBELLIOUS GUEST has just won a Class 4 and Class 3
* He has won 0-85 and 0-91 class races off 80 and 86
* Today he faces a 0-97 field off a rating of 92
* He will need a career best but is in serious form
* He should be part of the staking plan

Selection

Split Stake Bet + Saver

BIRDMAN 14/1 Win Bet

LUHAIF 12/1 Win Bet

REBELLIOUS GUEST 3/1 Saver

A s c o t 3.50

Evs Captain Chris, 7/2 Riverside Theatre
7/1 Rolling Aces 8/1 Cloudy Too, 10/1 Medermit
16/1 Hunt Ball, 20/1 Kauto Stone
100/1 Sunny Ledgend.

Not keen on the Ascot Chase. Forces me to make the
sort of decisions I don't want to make. Decisions like
just how fit RIVERSIDE THEATRE will be with virtually
one run this season. CAPTAIN CHRIS has an obvious
chance but I wouldn't be interested at 11/10. Yesterday
Corals sent out an email clearly trying to oppose him
offering 6/4 and they see him as opposable. I'm wary
about him and if 8 horses run then I'd prefer something
each way. I don't want MEDERMIT with a big absence.
I think ROLLING ACES must have a reasonable chance
and he makes some each way appeal but my statistics
don't show much clarity here. Gut feeling is oppose the
favourite with something like ROLLING ACES each way.

H a y d o c k 4.35

5/2 Dungeel, 4/1 Gardefort, 9/2 Bobcatbilly
7/1 Bob Ford, 7/1 Sixty Something, 8/1 Green Wizard
8/1 Sergeant Dick.

* This is a Novice Handicap Chase over 2m 4f
* I think there is a bad favourite but open contest otherwise
* Only 7 runners make it an unpleasantly framed race
* DUNGEEL looks wrong to me
* The 8 past winners had 7 3 4 4 5 3 5 9 chase runs
* DUNGEEL only has 1 Chase start
* The 8 past winners had 4 6 4 4 5 3 3 3 runs this season
* DUNGEEL only has 1 run fewer than all other runners
* I am opposing him on those two angles
* Hard to find an alternative as most are lightly raced
* GREEN WIZARD didn't come out well
* GARDEFORT - Not sure you want a 5yo with an absence
* I looked at every Nov Hc Chase in January February March
* Thats at any distance and any Class
* No 5 year old won absent more than 68 days
* GARDEFORT with 97 days has some issues here
* BOB FORD - pulled up over 3m 4f last time. Not for me
* BOBCATBILLY - Saver more than selection
* SIXTY SOMETHING has one of the better profiles
* Trainer ran him too soon after his previous run
* Not keen on stable but this horse is very highly thought of
* SERGEANT DICK - I'd keep him on side as well

Shortlist

SIXTY SOMETHING 10/1 Win Bet

SERGEANT DICK 8/1 Win Bet

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