There are two items on this page.

A copy of the racing analysis message for Wednesday June 28th
then additionally at the bottom, a review of the day from the next day's message.

It's an interesting little example of issues faced by an advisory service such as ours.

#1 - Official bet wise Guy aims for a high degree of safety and surety.

#2 - The message is expected by clients early to mid morning time

#3 - Some days the uk and Irish weather can play havoc.

Will a big downpour arrive before a race?
Will going be seriously impacted..or not?
Will key horses drop out due to going concern
significantly impacting on the betting frame of the race markets?

#4 - As an individual punter with some ability for self thought
one has the luxury of waiting till later in the day.

Information and good analysis does not always have
to be in the form of an official tip to be valuable to you.

A tip in many ways is best thought of as a point in time call on live market odds.

Good analysis can have longer life span during the day.

Mathematician 2658
Wednesday June 28th

8 Races discussed
0 Staked Bet

8 Preview
This is an untidy disorganised message
It lacks both discipline and organisation
The cards today are partially to blame
But I am off the pace with my timing out

Heavy rain expected in different places
It may or may not arrive to change things
Conditions don't allow for a forensic day
So it is a wild and wayward message
Go careful as this one is unpredictable
Could end up as a classic or a car crash

Today's Bet

No Staked Bet

TODAY'S MESSAGE

8 Previews
Several of these are tonight
Heavy rain will affect some of them

Expect a day of non runners
With Price changes
Each Way terms being affected
Some races with look completely different later
All reasons why I hate this message
There was no chance of a bet today

No Highlighted bet today

Just going to let the 8 Previews stand
Knowing it could go either way today

No Staked Bet

Beginning of a new run of messages now
The next two weeks are pretty standard
Irish Derby at the end of this week
Coral Eclipse at the end of next week
Wimbledon starts next week as well
Looks like the next few days will be wet

Fully recovered from Royal Ascot now
The biggest Personal disappointment
Had to be Order of St George's 2nd place
The masochists among you may be tempted
By Paddy Power's 9/2 for the 2018 Gold Cup !
If he had won that photo he'd be 7/4 now
I can't stomach that 9/2 right now
But if it's there in a few months I'll take it

We are slowly having more account bets
Not fully resolved this long term problem
But I think there are signs of progress here
Many good and bad aspects to the service
One of the things we are getting better at
Is reliability and consistency in previews
Very rare now we get beaten up in messages
Losing runs are virtually non existent now
With both staked bets and smaller previews
The service can be too defensive for many
This is compensated for some by reliability

MONDAYS REVIEW

There were 6 messages on Monday
These finished W L P L P W
That wasn't too bad an effort
When I was flagging a bit after Ascot
The worst part of Mondays message
Was the choice of the best bet that day
It was two split each way doubles
Started with a winner and then a loser
Bit of a car crash of a bet to be fair
It was reliant on too many assumptions
Not sure why I just didn't go for Viewpoint
But it never crossed my mind to do it
A direct result of being mentally tired
Otherwise didn't get a lot wrong on the day

PROFILES & PREVIEWS

CARLISLE 2.00

7/2 John Kirkup, 4/1 Tember, Tough Remedy, 6/1 Aquadabra
7/1 Falabelle, Weeton, 9/1 Elements Quest, 20/1 Admiral Rooke
Magic Pulse, 25/1 Just For The Craic.

5f Novice for 2 year olds

FALABELLE is unraced from Kevin Ryan
Hardly likely she will be ready to do herself justice
If you look at 5f races here with 9 + runners
Horses drawn 1 have a 0-35 record since 2011
TEMBER looks disadvantaged drawn 1
I'd oppose the other unraced fillies
ELEMENTS QUEST and MAGIC PULSE
WEETON is unraced
With several horses with 2 or more runs
I think we should stay with experienced types
I'd choose between one of these 3 options
JOHN KIRK UP
AQUADABRA
TOUGH REMEDY

AQUADABRA is sired by Born To Sea
This sire never raced over a trip this short
His offspring's runners have a 0-18 record
May not mean much his mother was a sprinter
She never actually won at 5f though
I just wondered if he wanted further
I prefer to go with the other 2 horses
TOUGH REMEDY's sire is 0-10 with 5f horses
I am making him a saver at the prices
JOHN KIRK UP the main bet
He's just won her on soft ground
In the best Racing Post Rating of the lot

Selection

£4 Each Way JOHN KIRK UP 4/1

£2 Win Bet TOUGH REMEDY 7/2

CARLISLE 3.00

6/1 West Drive, 8/1 Hollywood Road, Mukhayyam
10/1 Chancery, Fleeting Visit, I Am Not Here, Panko, Swaheen
12/1 Dance King, Energia Fox, 14/1 Admiral's Sunset, Buonarroti
14/1 General Hazard, 16/1 Tamayuz Magic, 20/1 Multellie
25/1 Dolphin Village, Purple Rock.

Cumberland Plate Handicap over 11f
This really is a ridiculous race to preview
Just interested in a few issued
Such as my draw stats
They tell me in Carlisle races over 10f or more
Horses aged 3-4-5
Have a 0-30 record drawn 12 or higher
WEST DRIVE amongst others fail that
Interested in a few other things
I AM NOT HERE with 1 run this year
I came down to a shortlist of 4 horses
PANKO and SWAHEEN were borderline choices
The two horses I felt most positive about

Shortlist

MUKHAYYAM 6/1
DANCE KING 7/1

Shortlist only
No Selection

CARLISLE 4.00

13/8 Bletchley, 4/1 Asidious Alexander, 7/1 Aurora Butterfly
Elusive Beauty, 10/1 Isabel's On It, 14/1 Miss Infinity
14/1 Pichola Dance, 16/1 Bahamadam, 20/1 Savannah Slew
25/1 Best Of My Love.

This is a Listed race for fillies over 7f
I can criticise all of these 3 year olds
First of all no winners came from Maiden races
The following horses all fail that
Best Of My Love - Isabel's On It - Aurora Butterfly
No past winners had 1 run that season
Bletchley - Asidious Alexander - Bahamadam fail this
Horses from 6f races score badly
Elusive Beauty - Savannah Slew-Pichola Dance do this
None of the past winners had over 10 runs
Elusive Beauty and Miss Infinity have this problem
Therefore nothing is suitable

Decided to save on BLETCHLEY
She has the best Racing Post Rating
She did that last time out as well
Decided to combine her with a main bet
That had several recent runs and was fit
AURORA BUTTERFLY looked too risky
She is coming down from 9f to 7f after all
MISS INFINTY just lost by too far at Ascot
It had to be ELUSIVE BEAUTY

Selection

Small Stakes

£6 Win Bet ELUSIVE BEAUTY 11/2

£4 Win Bet BLETCHLEY 7/4

WORCESTER 4.20

11/8 Listen To The Man, 13/8 Gustave Mahler
4/1 Gannicus, 12/1 Deshan, 25/1 Breaking Ground
50/1 Lady Jameson, 66/1 Overrider.

2m Novice Hurdle

Looks a 3 horse race
If you look at Rcaing Post Ratings
GANNICUS comes out 3rd best
The dilemma about him is whether to save

LISTEN TO THE MAN is a 7yo mare
She has a 69 day absence to overcome
If we look at profiles of the two favourites
No doubt GUSTAVE MAHLER is better
He has the unfashionable stable though
LISTEN TO THE MAN has the big stable
Lots to be said for that but her profiles weak
June and July Novice Hurdles
Any and every distance
Mares aged 7 or more
Absent over 3 weeks have a 1-77 record
Those absent 31+ days have a 0-56 record
LISTEN TO THE MAN has these problems
GUSTAVE MAHLER should be the selection
But the reason I won't highlight this bet
Is because he has the inferior stable
Which is another reason to draft in a saver

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet GUSTAVE MAHLER 11/8

£1.50 Win Bet GANNICUS 11/2

NAAS 5.50

11/10 Butterscotch, 5/1 Broadway, 6/1 Dawn Hoofer
8/1 Lustful, 10/1 Grace Rafaela, 12/1 Ballet Shoes
14/1 Mojambo, 20/1 So Enjoy, 33/1 Little Luna
33/1 Sandbanks Road, 50/1 March Fifteen.

6f Maiden for 2yo fillies

BUTTERSCOTCH has 2 runs
Racing Post Ratings of 79 and 81
That is pretty acceptable
Considering his outstanding connections
And when all her rivals are unraced
BUTTERSCOTCH sets as good standard
She looks ideal for an each way double
Given that the price is bigger than expected
There is room for a saver as well
Hard not to respect DAWN HOOFER
If there is a star in this it could be her

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet BUTTERSCOTCH 11/10

£1.50 Win Bet DAWN HOOFER 6/1

NAAS 7.20

11/4 Nothing To Lose, 3/1 The Mcgregornator
5/1 I Will Excel, 7/1 Jammy Guest, 10/1 Dalton Highway
10/1 Melisandre, 12/1 Captain Cullen, 14/1 Bubbly Bellini
16/1 Buttermere, 20/1 Evie Be Kool.

7f Apprentice Handicap
Not many of these races in June/July
That involve 3 year olds v older horses
I have looked at Non Apprentice races as well

NOTHING TO LOSE is a 3yo
I don't like 3 year olds like him
Coming up in trip when inexperienced
He was a 25/1 chance when winning last time
Unseated his jockey at the start as well
I don't think he is a safe type for an Apprentice race
MELISANDRE is a 3 year old filly
I don't fancy her with just 3 runs
Not to mention just 1 run this season
And a 49 day absence as well
If I look at 3yo fillies with under 4 runs
Those absent more than 3 weeks are 0-35
MELISANDRE fails combinations of many angles

JAMMY GUEST is absent 252 days
Horses aged 7 absent more than 5 months
Have a 0-53 record in similar 7f handicaps
JAMMY GUEST is opposed as a 7 year old debutant
DALTON HIGHWAY is absent 242 days
There are 4yo debutants winner
But he wouldn't be my first choice
Not with a very inexperienced jockey
Not when no clear evidence this is his trip

EVIE BE KOOL is a 4yo filly
She is unsafe with just 4 runs
She is underraced and may be badly drawn
Nass 7f races since 2001
With 10 or fewer runners
Show stalls 9-10-11 have a 0-28 record
EVIE BE KOOL doesn't offer enough

CAPTAIN CULLEN is drawn 9
We know stalls 9-10-11 have a 0-28 record
He also has to come from 5f to a 7f race
That's a difficulty for an 8 year old
Despite all that I would keep him on side
This is a lot easier than his previous race
The 2nd and 3rd in the weights are hard to like
If Seasonal debutant DALTON HIGHWAY fails
And BUBBLY BELLINI gets beaten as well
Which will be no surprise as a 10yo absent 72 days
CAPTAIN CULLEN then only faces a 0-70 contest
He's just come from a far better 0-94 handicap
My statistics say he is not safe enough
CAPTAIN CULLEN may have a better chance than that

BUTTERMERE is a 4 year old filly
With just 5 runs she looks unsafe
I needed a far better last run to be interested

THE MCGREGORNATOR is a 3yo
Coming from a 6f race is not ideal
But he has positives elsewhere in his profile
My angles shortlist him as fine

I WILL EXCEL has one of the safest profiles
Good recent runs and enough experience

Selection

£4 Each Way I WILL EXCEL 9/2

£2 Win Bet THE MCGREGORNATOR 9/2

BATH 7.30

8/11 Storm Over, 4/1 Jashma, 9/2 Fethiye Boy
12/1 Broadhaven Honey, Coronation Cottage.

3yo Handicap over 5f

First things First
It is firm ground
With lots of rain expected
So we can not predict the ground

STORM OVER is odds on
He does have the best numbers
His trainer has twice won this race before

That said his profile is not great
STORM OVER only has 2 runs
If I look at all similar races in June and July
Horses from 5f races this year
Under 3 career starts
I find a 0-14 record
STORM OVER also has topweight
Not saying he is not going to win
But I want a better profile for an odds on shot

FETHIYE BOY gets 13lbs
JASHMA gets 15lbs
Both have far more recent races
Both have shorter absences
I'm going to take this pair over the favourite

Selection

£4 Each Way FETHIYE BOY 7/1

£2 Win Bet JASHMA 7/2

NAAS 8.50

11/4 Pocketfullofdreams, 7/2 Belle Boyd, Goldrush
7/1 Alahida, Dilmun, 9/1 Breeze, 12/1 Araca, Kamili
40/1 Dayereh, 40/1 Kailee, 66/1 Zimyla,
100/1 Jills Back, Ojinjintka, One Cool Girl Penny Blessing.

8f Maiden race for 3yo fillies

POCKETFULLOFDREAMS sets the standard
She has some massive numbers
She has form in serious races
She was a pacemaker in the Oaks
Her last 4 Racing Post Ratings are 96 96 87 69
She will probably win if matching the first 3
Reliability is the issue with her
Can we trust her to deliver after some hard asks
My view is that it is unclear
But at 5/2 we have options

Look at the draw with inexperienced horses

8f Naas races since 2013
Horses with Under 4 career starts
Have a 1-124 record drawn 9 or higher
Have a 0-90 record drawn 11 or higher
BELLE BOYD has this problem
She is in Stall 15 with just 2 career runs
On this angle we should avoid her
KAMILI drawn 12 fails the same angles
DILUN drawn 11 fails the same angles

BREEZE has a chance
But Rating Post Ratings of 67 67 69
Are light years behind the favourite

GOLDUSH has to be included
Cost 1.7 Million Euros and a cheap saver

Option 1

£8 Win Bet POCKETFULLOFDREAMS 5/2
£2 Win Bet GOLDUSH 4/1

Option 2

POCKETFULLOFDREAMS 5/2

Each Way

I prefer Option 2

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WEDNESDAYS REVIEW

Turned out to be a very smart message
Far more of a Classic than the Car Crash
I had no real sense of how it would turn out
Like a footballer predicting if he will score
In the end I didn't put a foot wrong all day
The message only had one losing preview
Even ignoring the Dance King winner
As he was on a shortlist with no selection
And ignoring the FETHIYE BOY winner
As the odds on favourite failed to take part
We still ended up W W L W P W
Obviously I'd rather have foretold that
Than dosed it with some scaremongering
But far better to get the previews correct
Like I said yesterday we are very reliable
You can almost follow every message now
A Member commented yesterday in an email
That we seem to back a lot of horses in a race
More than we ever used to do in the old days
I suppose we do really or it seems like we do
Defensively the service seems rock solid
In avoiding losers and blocking out losing runs
I could never see any betting banks being lost
I think they are safer with my account
That they would be in the high street these days
But there are times I'm impotent in front of goal
Too many times we don't even try to score
Yesterday was one of those occasions
A Message that some would have loved
And one others will have been frustrated by
It is very obvious what would be required
To be loved by all and to predict every winner
I would be doing that if it was that simple
But on a wet summers day we had 8 previews
Got almost all of them spot on and right
So we must be doing something very right