Mathematician 1837
No Account Bet Today
There will be several account bets next week and I'm
going to leave it today. I don't want to risk going into
Cheltenham with a losing Saturday behind me. There
is the other factor that half of my previews come from
Wolverhampton and I have an unwritten rule to avoid
account bets on a track that is not fit for purpose. That
said 8 PREVIEWS today. I like all of these. I will start
by summarising the selections before the main analysis.
Eight Previews Discussed
Sandown 2.05 - GONE TOO FAR 6/1 Win Bet
Sandown 2.05 - BROTHER BRIAN 8/1 Saver Bet
Very competitive race that wouldn't look out of place
at Cheltenham. Historically strong statistics in this and
this year they are screaming at me that 2 horses stand
out. I think either could be the selection. They may be
split stake bets or savers. Don't lose if one wins. Open
race. Could be too open but interested how these run.
Both horses have comfortably the best profiles here.
Wolverhampton 2.20 - BERTIEWHITTLE 11/2 Each Way
He is a quirky type in that he doesn't like hassle so he
will probably sit back and wait for gaps. He is weak in
the market. Maybe because of this and possibly a lack
of course form puts people off but there are plenty of
negatives in this race and I do fancy him to go close.
Gowran Park 2.25 - BLOW THE DOORS OFF 10/11 Win Bet
Gowran Park 2.25 - EASTER HUNT 4/6 Place Bet
I think Blow The Doors Off will win but decided that it
was far better to have a split stake win and place bet.
Partly because Blow the doors off is too short and it's
possible he could find problems with this sort of track.
Wolverhampton 2.55 - SKY KHAN 8/1 Each Way
I'm cold on this race and will be pleasantly surprised
if I get the race right. One of the less confident picks.
Sandown 3.15 - VIBRATO VALTAT 7/2 Win Bet
Imperial Cup. I like the selection but shame he is the
favourite. Maybe 7/2 or better each way is the Wiser
bet here. Not a race I like to commit too. My angles
in this race are constantly changing. He could easily
win but needs to be ridden right and I around 7/2 its
hard to claim that we are getting any great value.
Chepstow 3.55 - CONSIGLIERE 6/4 Win Bet
I fancy him strongly as he has his conditions but no
real need or desire to put up a horse at short odds.
Wolverhampton 4.05 - WHERE4S REILEY 7/1 Win Bet
Wolverhampton 4.05 - R WOODY 4/1 Saver Bet
I'm guessing in a race that should have been cut out
of the message. Whatever I get here is down to only
taking a speculative guess from just limited angles.
Wolverhampton 4.40 -TROJAN ROCKET 3/1 Win Bet
I'm not in the habit of betting horses that step up 2
grades in class but this is a very weak race for the
grade and I have problems with every other horse.
I think he will win but I wouldn't trust the trainer in
an account bet nor would I the track to be honest.
M e s s a g e Content
This Pre Cheltenham Saturday can be an anti climax
and almost a necessary evil. Never an enjoyable day
with the Festival a couple of days away. Plenty of tiny
fields today spoil the cards. I've chosen a few races I
like but good horses are understandably missing today.
Wolverhampton
Saturday's in the winter normally has Lingfield as the
spine of the message. Today it is Wolverhampton that
takes centre stage. It's a tough track to bet winners on
and far less reliable. I have 4 previews here and it did
not strike me as easy today so hopeful not confident.
Chepstow & Ayr
Only 1 preview at these two meetings simply because
there are too many tiny fields and badly framed races.
I fancy one in the Chepstow 3.55 but ignoring the other
races as statistics are vulnerable in these small fields.
Sandown
The most competitive card today. I have previewed a
wide open Imperial Cup and the Novice Handicap that
always throws up some interesting angles at 2.05pm.
Sunday Message
There will be a Sunday Message tomorrow which will
be a mixture of Cheltenham News and Sunday Racing.
There will not be a Message on Monday as that is the
best chance of making sure we do well on the Tuesday.
P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S
S a n d o w n 2.05
5/1 Knight Of Noir, 7/1 Horizontal Speed, 15/2 Doctor Harper
8/1 Gone Too Far, 17/2 Brother Brian, 17/2 Classic Move
9/1 Ceasar Milan, 14/1 Panama Petrus, 14/1 Theatrebar
16/1 Goohar, 16/1 Vice Et Vertu 20/1 Brave Vic, 20/1 Strollawaynow
25/1 Boondooma 25/1 Saffron Wells, 25/1 Steel City.
* This is a 2m 4f Graded Novice Handicap Hurdle
* There has been 16 renewals of this race
* Its the only similar race run at this time of year
* Horses aged 7 struggle and are only 1-45
* Horses aged 6 are comfortably best with a 12-133 record
* Horses aged 5 do win but just score a 3-77 record
* There were only 3 winners aged 5
* All three came from Novice Hurdles
* They all ran over at least 2m 3f last time
* They had at least 4 career starts and at least 3 over hurdles
* GOOHAR is the wrong type of 5yo up from 2m
* VICE ET VERTU didn't do enough last time as a 5yo
* STEEL CITY didn't do enough last time either
* Every past winner 3-4-5-6 previous Hurdle starts
* I wouldn't consider a horse with more than that
* These are far too vulnerable to lighter raced improvers
* CEASAR MILAN is 6 and comes from a handicap hurdle
* That's not too bad a profile
* He has more weight than those that did it though
* It's his preparation I have most trouble with
* Running 9 days ago may not be ideal
* No past winners of this had a very recent run
* All 16 winners had absences of at least 3 weeks
* Look at the record of horses running within 20 days
* All 68 horses that tried this lost
* You want a horse laid out for the race not here as an afterthought
* That 0-68 record suggest we avoid CEASAR MILAN
* PANAMA PETRUS fails that same 0-68 record
* HORIZONTAL SPEED is a 6yo
* He won a Novice Hurdle last time out
* 6 year olds doing this were 2-36 a modest return
* These 2 winners had only 3 and 4 hurdle runs
* HORIZONTAL SPEED has 6 runs quite a bit more exposed
* These 2 winners were lighter raced and had less weight
* They had absences of 22 and 33 days
* HORIZONTAL SPEED has 49 days off
* He is not a good enough match for me
* DOCTOR HARPER is 6 and won a Novice Hurdle last time
* We know similar horses were 2-36
* The 2 winners had 10st 11lbs and 11st 2lbs
* DOCTOR HARPER has to lug 11st 12lbs today
* That's a worry and he looks the Pipe second string
Possibles
* KNIGHT OF NOIR is a 5 year old
* He is the right sort of 5yo with one query
* He carries 11st 10lbs quite a tough weight
* The highest weight a 5yo carried was 11st 6lbs last year
* 5 year olds won from marks of 116 128 and 130
* KNIGHT OF NOIR attempts to win off 135
* CLASSIC MOVE passes my 5yo angles
* He has the joint highest weight of any 5yo
Shortlist
BROTHER BRIAN
GONE TOO FAR
* I looked at 6 year olds beaten in Novice Hurdles last time
* There was a 5-54 record with these horses
* Those with 3 previous hurdle starts were 5-27
* Those absent 3 or more weeks were 5-20
* BROTHER BRIAN has this profile
* GONE TOO FAR has this profile as well
* Thats just about the best profile here
* Take out horses at 20/1 and more and it improves
* Horses with this profile then have a 5-12 record
* The 1999 2006 2008 2009 2010 winners had this profile
Selection
GONE TOO FAR 6/1 Win Bet
BROTHER BRIAN 8/1 Saver Bet
W o l v e r h a m p t o n 2.20
4/1 Bertiewhittle, 4/1 Hasopop, 5/1 Chookie Royale
5/1 Gabriel4s Lad, 7/1 Alben Star, 7/1 Kenny Powers
10/1 Highland Knight, 12/1 Intransigent, 33/1 Santefisio
50/1 Dr Red Eye.
* This is a 7f Listed Class race for all aged horses
* There are 7 past renewals of this race
* No strong angles in this race over 7 renewals
* The Draw could be important
* Look at the last 13 races here over 7f with 9 + runners
* All 13 winners were drawn 4 or higher
* 12 of these were drawn 5 or higher
* Low Draws have struggled in recent races here
* INTRANSIGENT - Not keen on his Draw in Stall 1
* He has lost all 10 times he raced in Class 2 or higher
* KENNY POWERS is badly drawn in Stall 2
* He was beaten a short head in last years race
* Last year he had a recent run. This year 364 days absence
* Horses have won this with long absences
* It's a worry when combined with a poor draw
* GABRIEL4S LAD is not well drawn in Stall 3
* He has 147 days off the track from a small stable
* SANTEFISIO has ran 3 times since a 6 month break
* All 3 runs were heavy defeats and disappointing
* He hasn't proven his form or fitness
* HASOPOP is 0-6 in this Grade and higher so far
* Main objection is he has 1 run in just 145 days
* DR RED EYE has just 1 run in the past 161 days
* HIGHLAND KNIGHT is 7 and has 112 days absence
* Almost all his form is over further and he is risky
* CHOOKIE ROYALE drops from 10f to 7f
* Running over 3f just 10 days ago would worry me
* His 7f form is all in much lower grades
Shortlist
* ALBEN STAR has his first run in Pattern company
* I don't mind that coming from a high class handicap
* Not overkeen he is the only horse going up in distance
* Past winners have done that before though
* He is at the top of his game and should stay this 7f
* BERTIEWHITTLE has the best last time out run for me
* Worries me he has never run at the track before
* He's not a horse that likes hustle and bustle
* Being held up in a big field would worry me
* I can see traffic issues. He may need to be lucky
* That said he comes from a 14 runner race at Lingfield
* He placed there in a course record time
* This is only a 10 runner Wolverhampton race
* Well drawn he could easily be good enough here
Selection
BERTIEWHITTLE 11/2
Each Way
G o w r a n P a r k 2.25
6/4 Blow The Doors Off, 3/1 Easter Hunt, 6/1 Wood Breizh
10/1 Bold Bachelor, 10/1 Jimmy Two Times, 12/1 Royal Chief
14/1 Cloonacool, 14/1 Spare A Thought, 14/1 Star For Life
16/1 Elegant Ali, 20/1 Lake Field, 20/1 Stoughan Cross
25/1 Fennis Moll, 25/1 Oryx Falcon, 33/1 All The Chimneys
33/1 Mr Mulliner, 33/1 San Gabriel, 33/1 Valley Queen.
This maiden hurdle has a big field but not many will be
able to win and I think BLOW THE DOORS OFF may get
a deserved first win. WOOD BREIZH has a chance but he
doesn't set a high standard and he won't be that special
because if he was he would not be the syndicated horse
he is. EASTER HUNT has a chance but has already been
beaten by BLOW THE DOORS OFF and I feel the latter's
had the better preparation. BLOW THE DOORS OFF also
offers the best 4 Racing Post Hurdle Ratings in this race.
I see EASTER HUNT as the big danger but he come here
after a poor last run and I prefer BLOW THE DOORS OFF.
My main worry is that BLOW THE DOORS OFF is a huge
horse and the track may be a bit sharp being just 12f in
circumference. For that reason and because he is short
I think the sensible bet has to be the split stake bet.
Selection
BLOW THE DOORS OFF 10/11 Win Bet
EASTER HUNT 4/6 Place Bet
W o l v e r h a m p t o n 2.55
5/1 Fashion Line, 11/2 Alfred Hutchinson
6/1 Whispering Warrior 8/1 Star Links, 8/1 Strictly Silver
8/1 Tres Coronas, 10/1 Noble Citizen 10/1 Sky Khan
14/1 Global Village, 14/1 Tellovoi, 16/1 Postscript
20/1 Party Royal, 25/1 Loyalty.
* The Lincoln Trial has a 17 year history.
* It is a Class 2 handicap over a mile
* I looked at all 47 similar races in March
* Many horses won with long absences
* Male horses aged 7 or more did not though
* They had a 0-65 record in the 47 races
* GLOBAL VILLAGE fails that and is opposed
* TRES CORONAS also fails that and is wrong
* PARTY ROYAL is a 4yo with an absence
* Many won but none had more than 16 runs
* PARTY ROYAL has 23 and has the worst draw as well
* LOYALTY - Flopped last year with a better profile
* POSTSCRIPT - Career high mark with 161 day absence
* ALFRED HUTCHINSON comes from a 6f race
* Worries me he is the only horse going up in distance
* I looked at horses from a 6f race within the past month
* There was a modest 3-79 record with thee types
* Those aged 6 or more like him were 0-31
* ALFRED HUTCHINSON - My angles say avoid him
* I looked at horses that won last time out
* They had a 10-84 record but look at their ages
* Horses aged 4 winning last time were 8-31
* Horses aged 5 winning last time were 2-27
* Horses aged 6 or more doing this were 0-26
* Last time out winners were all aged 4-5
* NOBLE CITIZEN is a 9yo winning last time out
* STAR LINKS is an 8yo winning last time out
* Both are at least 3 years older than any last time winner
* Both have career high marks today and no recent runs
* I think we should avoid both
* TELLOVOI - Looks to have limitations in this grade
* WHISPERING WARRIOR has ran once since last August
* I wanted more recent runs for an older horse
* STRICTLY SILVER won last year as a 4yo
* Can't rule him out but I have my doubts
* He will need a career best to win this
* That might be hard without a recent run
Possibles
* FASHION LINE is hard to read as a 4yo filly with 4 runs
* There was a 4yo filly win with 4 runs
* She had several months off the track though
* SKY KHAN is a 5yo who won last time
* He dead heated in the same race as FASHION LINE
* Still has some scope he could be underestimated
Selection
SKY KHAN 8/1
Each Way
S a n d o w n 3.15
11/4 Regal Encore, 7/2 Vibrato Valtat, 6/1 Baltimore Rock
8/1 New Year4s Eve, 9/1 Swing Bowler, 12/1 Gassin Golf
14/1 Fourth Estate, 14/1 Harristown, 16/1 Somemothersdohavem
20/1 First Avenue, 20/1 Knight Of Pleasure, 20/1 Little Jon
50/1 Chesil Beach Boy, 50/1 Skint.
* The Imperial Cup is a 2m Handicap Hurdle
* My angles have congealed into a mess in this race
* Last years winner was a Stat buster on heavy ground
* Taking a much calmer approach this year
* Horses with 11st 8lbs or more were 1-37
* SWING BOWLER fails that and looks wrong
* She is a mare with just 1 run this season and topweight
* HARRISTOWN only comes from a 4yo race
* One winner did that but he had Grade 1 form
* HARRISTOWN may find this a bit warm
* Horses from recent handicap hurdles seem to struggle
* Horses that ran within a month in handicap hurdles are 3-124
* Those coming from 2m handicap hurdles are 0-94
* That seems a strangely strong statistic
* Until it fails I think it is worth following
* BALTIMORE ROCK fails this with a recent 2m run
* FOURTH ESTATE has raced once this season
* Two past winners won with 1 run that season
* They were aged 6-7 and he is older aged 8
* They had 10st 4lbs or less and he has 7lbs more
* FOURTH ESTATE may just want another run
* SOMEMOTHERSDOHAVEM - I wanted a lighter raced horse
* NEW YEAR4S EVE won a recent 2m 3f handicap
* Horses doing this with 3-4-5 hurdle runs score very well
* NEW YEAR4S EVE has 9 hurdle runs though
* Not a perfect match but he is respected not selected
Shortlist
* Horses from Novice Hurdles won several past renewals
* REGAL ENCORE does this
* All Novice Hurdle winners had under 11st weight
* REGAL ENCORE has 11st 3lbs which I can overlook
* They all ran within 36 days though
* REGAL ENCORE has 87 days off the track
* There were 2 horses with his profile that came second
* None however have won so he has that to prove
* VIBRATO VALTAT is from a Listed Novice Hurdle
* One past winner did that also a 5 year old
* VIBRATO VALTAT is shortlisted and well treated
* I like his mark of 130 here
* His Racing Post Ratings suggest he is well handicapped
* GASSIN GOLF is 5 absent 98 days
* The 2012 winner had a similar enough profile
* GASSIN GOLF could appeal as a saver
* Either as a win bet (11/1) or place bet (11/4)
Selection
VIBRATO VALTAT 7/2
Win Bet
C h e p s t o w 3.55
7/4 Consigliere, 3/1 Kilcrea Asla
4/1 Simply Wings, 5/1 Quincy Des Pictons
8/1 Get It On.
I have one horse I really like here but he comes with
one reservation. I think CONSIGLIERE should be able
to win this. His market danger KILCREA ASLA won on
his last run but that was 68 days ago and he is now 13
years old. There a couple elsewhere that should have
a reasonable chance but conditions today seem likely
to bring out the best in CONSIGLIERE who I prefer. He
likes a small field and this record is very interesting.
* There is a ceiling to his capability
* Ignore his runs in Listed Class or higher
* He is a small field horse
* Ignore his runs in fields of 11 or more
* Ignore his form over 2 miles he needs further
* His wins came off marks of 138 or lower
* Ignore his runs when racing off 139 or more
* He must have ground on the soft side
* CONSIGLIERE has run 10 times under these conditions
* His record is W 6 2 W W 2 4 2 W W
* This 6-10 record makes him my selection
The reservation I was talking about is course form. He
has ran here twice and underperformed and although
I can argue he never ran here under ideal conditions
for him it's a small seed of doubt in my mind which is
easy to get when you're dealing with short prices. He
has to be the selection though and I think he may win.
Selection
CONSIGLIERE 6/4
Win Bet
W o l v e r h a m p t o n 4.05
3/1 R Woody, 7/2 Come On Dave
4/1 Angelo Poliziano, 6/1 Master Of Disguise
6/1 Quality Art, 8/1 Haadeeth, 10/1 Where4s Reiley.
This is a Classified Claiming race and statistically not
much interest as only 6 of these races have been run
during March. I can tell you horses aged 6 or more do
best and no male horse under 6 years old has won so
far. COME ON DAVE fails that and with just 1 run in the
past 81 days he is lighter raced than all of these. The
best option on paper is R WOODY but he is unreliable
and hard to win with. No interest myself with 7 horses
running. I decided to list some Racing Post Ratings.
Racing Post Ratings
Since 2012
Running at Wolverhampton over 5f
77 R Woody - R Woody - Where's Reiley
73 Where's Reiley - Where's Reiley - Angelo Poliziano
72 R Woody - R Woody - Master of Disguise
70 Angelo Poliziano - Angelo Poliziano
68 Quality Art - Quality Art - Quality Art
68 R Woody - Master of Disguise - Angelo Poliziano
This looks a race for a guess so I am following the broad
advice from the Racing Post Ratings to see what happens.
Selection
WHERE4S REILEY 7/1 Win Bet
R WOODY 4/1 Saver Bet
W o l v e r h a m p t o n 4.40
9/4 Trojan Rocket, 100/30 Joe Eile, 6/1 Regal Parade
7/1 Pandar, 8/1 Baddilini, 8/1 Hitchens 25/1 Clockmaker.
* This is a Class 2 handicap over 6f
* March only has 15 similar races run before
* I personally don't like small field Class 2 races
* Angles get corrupted in these races
* In 15 similar races horses from 5f races were 0-30
* PANDAR fails that and has an absence
* JOE EILE would not be first choice
* Not with just 1 run in 146 days
* BADDILINI is out with 1 run in 170 days
* REGAL PARADE- Don't want a 10yo absent 140 days
* HITCHENS comes from a Listed class race
* All 20 horses doing this were beaten
* CLOCKMAKER probably wants further than this
* TROJAN ROCKET - I would shortlist him
* He's going up 2 grades in class today though
* That has been done and all his rivals have problems
Selection
TROJAN ROCKET 3/1
Win Bet
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Best Wishes
Guy Ward
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk
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