Mathematician 2802
Wednesday December 13th

5 Preview
0 Account Bet

A few more meetings today
The weather has calmed down
3 All weather tracks race
5 Previews in the message
Selling race and 4 handicaps

Today's Message

Not a straightforward message
I knew my best bet within 5 minutes
That is in Preview 1 at 12.30 pm
But the price has shortened now

I'd see this message as 1 solid bet
That has been spoilt a bit by the price

Followed by 4 interesting little puzzles
That can't be taken too seriously

The other 4 previews are handicaps
Made a fair enough effort in them
But none of them straight forward
And the staking seems complicated

I think Previews 1 and 5 are best
The last preview is interesting
The favourite is different class
But probably wont stay the distance.

Today's Best Bet

Lingfield 12.30

DUTIFUL SON 10/11

Win Bet

This was forecast to be 13/8 yesterday
But after a non runner and price change
It is a low skinnier now at 10/11
Far too short to stake a bet on now

The other race I'd highlight

Wolverhampton 3.15

£6 Win Bet HELLAVASHOCK 15/2

£2 Win Bet D'WATERSIDE 5/1

£2 Win Bet SOOQAAN 5/1

This is probably not strong enough
I shouldnt be highlighting this really
As I could have staked all of these
Didn't know which to stake and why

Personal Bet

Win double forme today

DUTIFUL SON at Lingfield

MICHAEL VAN GERWIN 8/11 in the Darts

More about him in Future Betting Angles later

The double pays over 9/4
If I can get this horse home today
I will have 9/4 Van Gerwin
Who I think is an absolute banker in the Darts

Tuesday's Review

Wolverhampton was abandoned
Sadly my only preview that there
I knew there was an inspection
But I was surprised that if failed
Wasn't a complete waste of time
As the race is being run today !!

PROFILES & PREVIEWS

LINGFIELD 12.30

15/8 Dutiful Son, 5/2 Footstepsintherain,
7/2 Haraz , 12/1 Bridge Builder,
16/1 Corporal Maddox, Lucky Di.

7f Selling race

DUTIFUL SON stands out a mile

You can argue that on official ratings
Given the weight he concedes
He is only the 3rd best horse here
But look at his numbers

Last 3 Racing Post Ratings

DUTIFUL SON 70 72 79
Bridge Builder 20 40 62
Corporal Maddox 57 47 47
Strategic Heights 65 67 0
Haraz 73 62 3

DUTIFUL SON is well ahead
FOOTSTEPSINTHERAIN did an 80 last time
That doesn't count as it was 609 days ago
If he wins he wins
But I can't bet a 7yo absent that long
From a small trainer whose flat runners
Have yet to win absent more than 4 weeks
CORPORAL MADDOX is a 10yo with low numbers

There is only one decision to make
DUTIFUL SON is the clear choice
The only issue is
Should we save on HARAZ
He flopped last time
But it was his first run at Southwell
Before that he had decent number
Given a Non runner
That is now not possible

You could go
£8 DUTIFUL SON
£2 Exacta HARAZ to beat Dutiful Son
Otherwise the less complicated win bet

Selection

DUTIFUL SON 10/11

Win Bet

WOLVERHAMPTON 1.45

2/1 Gorgeous, 7/2 Fikhaar, Something Lucky,
8/1 Toolatetodelegate, 10/1 Oh So Dandy,
12/1 Your Gifted, 20/1 Roy's Legacy25/1 Mags Well.

5f Handicap
Only 0-58 class
62 similar races in December

I wanted to take on the favourite
GORGEOUS is only a 4yo filly
She has raced only once in 12 months
Win lose or draw she is woefully short of runs

In 62 similar races fillies aged 4 + are 5-97
All 5 winners had at least 10 previous runs
GORGEOUS only has 6 runs
No horse male of female aged 4 or more
Won a similar race without at least 8 runs
Not as if she comes from a powerful stable
When she won her maiden she was 33/1
The favourite refused to enter the stalls
The 2nd that day has turned out useless
She was 66/1 last time when 2nd in a handicap
Can't bring myself to select her at all

Some of the outsiders look beatable
ROYS LEGACY is running slow numbers
Doesn't look in the right place right now
MAGS WELL has 2 bad runs in 5 months
YOUR GIFTED is a 10 year old
With 1 run in 123 days and none for 6 weeks
I have to question his fitness
There are 4 possible bets here

FIKHAAR is a 3 year old

TOOLATETODELEGATE is a 3 year old

ON SO DANDY is a 3 year old

SOMETHING LUCKY is a 5 year old
No reasons why the 3yo's cant win

SOMETHING LUCKY is 2 years older
He has a recent run 8 days ago as well

FIKHAAR is a 3yo filly
Has a chance but not the biggest of horses
She has never raced over 5f before as well

TOOLATETODELEGATE is a 4yo filly
Needs to find improvement off topweight
That won't be easy after 13 runs

OH SO DANDY is worth considering
His runs in October and November
Were very excusable
He would have needed the run
Following a break of several months
Last time he showed improvement
No shame at all in his 2nd place last time
Beaten by an older horse with experience
OH SO DANDY had to give her weight too
Decent gap back to the third horse that day
I think he could improve again

Shortlist

OH SO DANDY
SOMETHING LUCKY

SOMETHING LUCKY has to be shortlisted
He has recently upgraded stables
Last time was his first run for a new yard
Did well to finish 2nd at Southwell
When he had 55 days off the track
I want to stake both these horses

Selection

£3.00 Each Way OH SO DANDY 9/1

£4.00 Win Bet SOMETHING LUCKY 4/1

LINGFIELD 2.00

7/2 Makaarim, 9/2 Make Music, 11/2 Mickey,
10/1 Pearl Spectre, 11/1 Right Touch, 12/1 Bobby Wheeler,
12/1 Gallipoli, 14/1 Alejandro, Eljaddaaf, Mr Bossy Boots,
16/1 Alfred Hutchinson, Forceful Appeal, Kadrizzi
20/1 Shyron.

7f Handicap in Class 3

I will start with the unacceptables
BOBBY WHEELER has raced once in 14 months
KADRIZZI has raced once since last July
ALFRED HUTCHINSON is a 9yo
Just 2 runs in 8 months isn't enough
Not when the last one was so poor
Several of these have absences
Not easy to judge these types statistically

No Horse with under 9 career starts
Won when absent more than 8 weeks
MICKEY has the problem with 6 runs
458 days off is longer than I'd want

No Horse with over 14 career starts
Won when absent more than 8 weeks
MAKE MUSIC has this problem
He is on a career high mark today
Never won in this class before either
No filly like her has beaten an absence
ELJADDAAF has similar problems
He has never won in this class beore
Never off anywhere near his current rating
GALLIPOLI also has an absence
He will need a career best to take this
The percentage call is leave him given his sire

60 similar races at this time of year
None of the 60 were aged 9 or more (0-15)
FORCEFUL APPEAL has this problem
He also has to come from 9f to 7f as well
MR BOSSY BOOTS seems out of form
Well beaten just 6 days ago he is unsafe
ALEJANDRO is down from 9f to 7f
As an 8yo his profile is unsafe

RIGHT TOUCH has a shaky profile
Horses from 6f or shorter
Aged 6 or more have a 1-41 record

MAKAARIMN is 3 and won last time
If I look at 3 year olds winning last time
Those running over 7f or more
With under 12 career starts
Have a 0-11 record
MAKAARIMN is not quite like a winner
Horses aged 3
Coming from 7f
Under 12 career starts
Absent more than 2 weeks
Return a worrying 1-54 profile

PEARL SPECTRE has a decent profile

SHYRON was well beaten last time
He was drawn 12 of 12 at Chelmsford
And heavily eased once beaten
3 runs ago over this course/distance
He did a Racing Post Rating of 93
Given his handicap mark is only 83
I am going to play it this way

Selection

£3.00 Each Way SHYRON 15/2

£2.00 Each Way PEARL SPECTRE 12/1

WOLVERHAMPTON 2.45

5/2 Captain Bond, 7/2 Viva Verglas,
9/2 Scotch Myst, 8/1 Ambitious Boy, Tally's Song,
9/1 Vroom, 12/1 Kyllach Me, 16/1 Beau Mistral
20/1 Fred's Filly.

6f Handicap
108 similar races in December

CAPTAIN BOND is opposed
I wouldn't want him drawn 1
Go back to 2016
Wolverhampton 6f Handicaps
Horses drawn 1 have a 1-129 record
It is the coffin box these days
CAPTAIN BOND has only raced 3 times
Horses with the same profile were 1-12
So one did win but 3 runs and a bad draw
Leaves me very sceptical about his chance

SCOTCH MYST is a 3yo
He has 16 runs and absent 50 days
He has raced only once sinc May
Horses aged 3
13 or more career starts
Absent more than 32 days
Have a 0-35 record in similar races
That suggests he may be underraced
And too exposed to be winning with 50 days off
KYLLACH ME isn't running that well
BEAU MISTRAL has a similar problem
TALLY SONG is a filly with an absence
Starting 100/1 last time not a good sign

Shortlist

AMBITIOUS BOY is interesting
Really caught the eye last time
He did that drawn 1 over this course/distance
Failed the 1-129 draw stat Captain bond fails
You can upgrade that run because of that
He is 8 and has been running himself fit
Now had 4 races since March 2017
He may have reached fitness now
My angles are not convinced
Not as an 8 year old absent 43 days

VIVA VERGLAS has to be shortlisted
Grey horse not the biggest either
The type to win or flop
Numbers and good enough for sure
But may not be one to rely upon

VROOM is hard to read
Go back 8 months or so
And his form would win this easily
Things haven't gone so well since
There have been excuses
I would want him part of the staking

The Money horse
Has been the 3yo Scotch Myst
Who I felt was short of recent runs
I am staking the 3 that offered more

Selection

£3 Each Way AMBITIOUS BOY 8/1

£2 Win Bet VROOM 7/1

£2 Win Bet VIVA VERGLAS 4/1

WOLVERHAMPTON 3.15

7/2 Satchville Flyer, 5/1 Joyful Dream, Stamp Duty,
7/1 D'Waterside, 8/1 Sooqaan, Spring Beauty, 10/1 Hellavashock,
14/1 Shadow's Girl, 16/1 Captain Sedgwick, Cloud Nine,
20/1 Quick Monet, 33/1 Nagamaat.

Mile Handicap

Think we have an unsafe favourite
Probably a non staying favourite
SATCHVILLE FLYER is 0-9 over 8f or more
He is only 1-26 over 7f and more
Countless times I've caled him a non stayer
With topweight and a 63 day absence as well
I am calling him one again today
Now if he wins this race
It will be because he has more class
You only have to look at his numbers
He has far better numbers than the others
So the game is not laying him at 11/4
I may call him a non stayer
But non stayers can win
I'd rather be trying to lay him in running
Perhaps at odds on before the last furlong
I just think he must be running on empty

Looking at the alternatives
JOYFUL DREAM is hard to like
She is a 3yo filly with 1 run since May 2017
She looks far too exposed for her absence
STAMP DUTY looks underraced
Find it hard to bet a 9 year old
Who has raced only once since April 2017
CLOUD NINE is a filly not offering enough

D'WATERSIDE is shortlistable
SOOQAAN is hard to read or commit too
Not won since 2004 and has patchy form
But is capable off his current rating
HELLAVASHOCK has a 0-17 record
Not entirely sure he stays a mile
Probably just enough and he has a chance

Selection

This could be dangerous

The favourite looks a non stayer
The 2nd favourite looks unfit
The 3rd favourite looks unfit
Half the field look impossible to like
I can only shortlist 3 horses

D'WATERSIDE 5/1
SOOQAAN 5/1
HELLAVASHOCK 7/1

D'WATERSIDE is drawn 12
Look at 8f races here in 2017
Horses drawn 12 or higher are 0-37
That is another thing to consider

I am beginning to think
The best bet may be a place bet
SATCHVILLE FLYER to place at 4/6
I don't think he stays
But he has more class than these
You could actually bet him to place at 4/6
Then lay him in running to win at 4/6
And if he comes 2nd or 3rd you win twice !
I'm playing it this way

Selection

£6 Win Bet HELLAVASHOCK 15/2

£2 Win Bet D'WATERSIDE 5/1

£2 Win Bet SOOQAAN 5/1

FUTURE BETTING ANGLES

If I think about individual sportsmen/women
Who are completely dominant in their event
Clearly the superior person/team by a mile
There are not that many that come to mind

Paris St Germain in the French League
Celtic in Scottish football
But these are completely unbackable

None dominant in Golf or Tennis
None in Snooker Cricket or Football

You can argue boxer Anthony Joshua is ?
But thats debatable and doesn't help us
Neither does Chris Froome in the Cycling

There is actually one person
Who is dominent in his sport
The best player by some way now
And about to defend his World Title

Michael Van Gerwin in the Darts

He is 8/11 to win the World Title
Starts his defence Thursday Night
He is so far clear in terms of ability
That he will need an off day not to win

8/11 May not sound exciting
But it will do in 3 weeks time

Michael Van Gerwin is a Banker for me
So to is Anthony Joshua in a Novelty market

Anthony Joshua is a 1/5 red hot favourite
For the Sports Personality of the year
You may disagree but I don't see a danger
Lewis Hamilton is not popular
He has won it before and isn't turning up
Mo Farah - Chris Froome are also no shows
This is just a crowining in waiting

This double interested me

£1 Double returnes £2.07
It is over double your money

PDC Darts Wold Championship

MICHAEL VAN GERWIN 8/11

Sports Personality of year

ANTHONY JOSHUA 1/5

Evens looks really big about this double

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Best Wishes

Guy Ward

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk