Mathematician 4996
Saturday March 1st

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0 Account Bet

No Account Bet

 

I've decided to wait for Sunday

Not stake an account bet today

Today's Best Bet

Kelso 2.55

£3.50 Each Way DEDICATED HERO 12/1-14/1

£3.00 Win Bet CHART TOPPER 5/2

 

 

Final Deliberations

Quite a challenging Saturday

7 Previews

3 Doncaster
2 Newbury
1 Navan
1 Kelso

Prefer these 3 races

Newbury 3.45

£3.75 Each Way BOOSTER BOB 20/1-18/1

£1.50 Win Bet VINCENZO 6/1-11/2

£1.00 Win Bet BEAU BALKO 9/1

1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5

Greatwood Gold Cup
The days main handicap
Came down on an outsider
Have not made the case
For going onto the account

 

Navan 1.35

SWING DAVIS 2/1-7/4

Win Bet

Weak market
Not suitable for a bet either
But felt he might win this
I am going each way at 2/1
Should not surprise anyone
But goes down as a win bet

Kelso 2.55

£3.50 Each Way DEDICATED HERO 12/1-14/1

£3.00 Win Bet CHART TOPPER 5/2

He needs to improve to win this
But we had a WPMullins saver
And several fancied horses in this
Can not be matched to any winner
In the long 20 year history of this
Definitely value each way at 12/1 +
But do not know if he has the class
To beat this field with his penalty

 

Decided to wait for a Sunday bet

There will be less choice tomorrow

But never once came across a bet

That I could have staked or wanted to

My biggest personal bet

Will be Swing Davis each way

But going with a better priced horse

Not staked on the account

With the new plan a sunday bet

 

 

 

Preview Selections

Newbury 1.20
Gustavian 100/30-7/2
Each Way

Navan 1.35
Swing Davis 7/4
Win Bet

Doncaster 2.05
£6.00 Win Bet Miss Cynthia 5/1
£4.00 Win Bet World Of Fortunes 6/4

Kelso 2.55
£3.50 Each Way Dedicated Hero 12/1-14/1
£3.00 Win Bet Chart Topper 5/2

Doncaster 3.15
Weveallbeencaught 6/1-11/2
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4

Newbury 3.45
£3.75 Each Way Booster Bob 20/1-18/1
£1.50 Win Bet Vincenzo 6/1-11/2
£1.00 Win Bet Beau Balko 9/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5

Doncaster 3.55
£7.00 Win Bet Kamsinas 4/1-9/2
£2.00 Win Bet Pretending 9/2-5/1
£1.00 Win Bet Ike Sport 10/1

 

 

Yesterday's Summary

Taking everything into account
It was a good overall message
Which finished up W L L W W
But I misread my own message
Preferred two national hunt bets
They both lost finishing in 2nd
But the 3 Lingfield bets all won
Quandry was a really good start
My angles get full credit for that
Race statistics forced my hand
Pleasingly these all worked out
Starting price was a bonus 15/2
Then we had 2 embarrassments
Followango 4/6 felt like a banker
Always embarrassing at odds on
When a selection does not win
In hindsight watching the race
We looked an undersized mare
The male winner looked bigger
And I think that was my mistake
Ocean Conquest then failed too
Both my favourite bets sunken
But Just can not call it a disaster
When all the Lingfield bets won
So Darn Hot the second winner
Certainly eased lots of the pain
From the 2 National hunt bets
Roaring Legend won the finale
Albeit only in the split stake bet
Thursday I read my work well
I sensed where it was stronger
Friday I misread my best bets
That was the only real criticism
One of those strange messages
Where everyone will feel different
Some will have won others lost

 

 

PROFILES & PREVIEWS

Newbury 1.20

11/4 Credo, 7/2 Gustavian, 4/1 Sam Brown
7/1 Grandads Cottage, Quick Wave, 8/1 Good Boy Bobby
10/1 Cloudy Glen, 25/1 Amateur.

Veterans Handicap Chase 3m 2f

Past renewals show
Horses well beaten last time
Have not done particularly well

Horses who last time out
Lost by more than 10 lengths
Have a 0-72 record so far
The following horses fail this

SAM BROWN
CLOUDY GLEN
GRANDADS COTTAGE

SAM BROWN is 13 years old
None as old as him have won
Still running well these days
But does give lots of weight

AMATEUR pulled up last time
Last finished a race 4 runs ago

QUICK WAVE is a 12yo mare
Faces a huge 742 day absence

GOOD BOY BOBBY is a 12yo
He pulled up in his latest start
3 past winners also pulled up
But they were younger 10yo's

Not many make much appeal

Past renewals suggest

The ideal profile
Horses aged 10-11
With good recent runs

That shortlists two

CREDO
GUSTAVIAN

Met each other last time
Finishing in 1st and 2nd

CREDO is a mare
She has an obvious chance
Slight breeding question mark

Horses sired by Fame and Glory
Racing over 3m 2f and further
Class 2 and higher grade
Have a 1-33 record to date
His runners on soft or heavy
Have a 0-14 record in them
CREDO is the next to try this

GUSTAVIAN fine on sire stats
Has the most momentum in this

I would rather bet him each way
Solves the Sam Brown problem
In case I underestimated him

Selection

GUSTAVIAN 100/30-7/2

Each Way

 

 

 

Navan 1.35

11/8 Dee's Lady, 9/4 Magic Day, 100/30 Swing Davis
8/1 Speculatrix, 12/1 Eastern Wind, 25/1 Doyentohurl
33/1 Jet Far, Western Opera, 50/1 Leading Endeavour
100/1 Silver Lafanta.

Maiden Hurdle 2m

Shapes like a 3 horse race

DEE'S LADY is one of them
Second to a very smart horse
Not really about who beats you
It is about who you have beaten
There is more than a suspicion
She ran on past beaten horses
Who failed to beat the favourite

Could easily be wrong about it
But both of her main dangers
Offer just as much if not more

SWING DAVIS

Comes here after a fall

But was a very expensive horse

She has the best figures

She looks bigger and stronger
Than either of her market rivals
Much prefer her of the three

Selection

SWING DAVIS 7/4

Win Bet

 

 

 

Doncaster 2.05

11/8 World Of Fortunes, 9/2 Dameofthecotswolds
5/1 Bobbi With An I, 11/2 Miss Cynthia, 9/1 Star Walking
10/1 Carrig Kate, 25/1 Golden Point
100/1 Ballela Sunrise.

Mares Novice Hurdle

Listed race 3m

From those officially rated

WORLD OF FORTUNES is top
But not with some considerations

Only horse that has a penalty
Her stable have been very quiet
Beaten 27 lengths last time out
No past winner in their last run
Was beaten over 13 lengths
Yes it was in a Grade 1 hurdle
But no past winner ran in one
There are some profile issues
But none of the others are safe

Opposing the following

GOLDEN POINT rated too low
BALLELA SUNRISE no positives

STAR WALKING is up against it
She is unproven on sire statistics
Beaten miles in a handicap last time

BOBBI WITH AN I is a 6 year old
She has had just 1 career start
To be fair the 2024 winner of this
Had just 1 previous race before
But that was a slowly run race
Run in the mud and driving rain
Bunch finish a 20/1 outsider one
Doubt lightning will strike twice
Sires stats are hardly inviting

Hurdlers sired by Kapgarde
With under 2 hurdle races
Have not won over 3m yet
Only 9 tried but they all failed

Hurdlers sired by Kapgarde
Running over 3m and more
Listed and Graded races
With under 7 hurdle runs
Have a 0-14 record so far
BOBBI WITH AN I next to try

CARRIG KATE is a 7 year old
Beaten 11 lengths last time out
Just 1 run in the last 103 days

MISS CYNTHIA is rated 113
Needs to improve and is exposed
Not a safe profile but has momentum

DAMEOFTHECOTSWOLDS a 5yo
Has had 15 hurdle runs up to now
The past 5yo winners were different
Far lighter raced with 3 3 1 hurdle runs
She is not a good match for a 5yo

Going to split stake this

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet MISS CYNTHIA 5/1

£4.00 Win Bet WORLD OF FORTUNES 6/4

 

 

 

Kelso 2.55

11/4 Chart Topper, 3/1 Castle Carrock, 7/2 Vanderpoel
8/1 Listentoyourheart, 9/1 Laganhill, 10/1 Dedicated Hero
12/1 Roadlesstravelled, 25/1 Jet To Vegas, 33/1 Captain Butler
33/1 Putapoundinthejar

Graded Novice Hurdle 2m 2f

CASTLE CARROCK

2 lifetime runs

1 hurdle race

His trainer has commented
He wanted another race for him
But could not find a suitable one

With just 1 hurdle race
His instinct may be right

Recent winners of this race
Had the following career runs
3 12 6 3 4 6 5 6 4 6 14 16

Recent winners of this race
Had the following hurdle runs
3 3 3 2 2 5 3 6 2 4 13 5

No past winners
Since the 2011 winner
Had under 2 hurdle runs
And had had 3 career runs

CASTLE CARROCK fails this

19 of the last 20 winners
Had at least 2 hurdle races
Going to avoid him today
As his rivals have more runs

No horse has won this
With under 3 lifetime races
The following all fail this

CASTLE CARROCK

LAGANHILL

VANDERPOEL

Willie Mullins has the favourite

CHART TOPPER

Racing Post Hurdle numbers
Have him well clear of these

One major problem
Just 1 run in 6 months

I would balance that by saying
His 3 main market dangers
Have fewer runs behind them
Than all 20 previous winners

Going to make him a saver

LISTENTOYOURHEART
She could be another saver
But hard to work 3 onto the staking

The best profile in this race

DEDICATED HERO

Comes here on a hat trick
Including a Grade win as well

Selection

£3.50 Each Way DEDICATED HERO 12/1-14/1

£3.00 Win Bet CHART TOPPER 5/2

 

 

 

Doncaster 3.15

9/2 Some Scope, 5/1 Weveallbeencaught
5/1 White Rhino 6/1 Hymac, 7/1 Surrey Quest
7/1 Twig, 10/1 The Kniphand 14/1 Erne River
14/1 Lord Baddesley, 16/1 Undersupervision
16/1 Moroder 33/1 Fidelio Vallis
40/1 Monte Igueldo.

Grimthorpe Handicap Chase

Handicap Chase 3m 2f

20 renewals since 2001

TWIG has topweight

Not sure he will defy 12st

Go back to 2009
Handicap Chases
Run in Class 2 and higher
Any distance
Any time of year
Horses aged 10 or more
Under 12 chase runs
Absent more than 57 days
Carrying 11st 4lbs and more
Return a 0-93 record in them
TWIG fails this statistic

WHITE RHINO rated 141
Is the second topweight in this
Sired by Doyen with 65 days off
He and others fail these angles

Horses sired by Doyen
Running over 3m and more
Class 2 and higher grade
Absent more than 44 days
Have a 0-034 record so far
The following horses fail this

LORD BADDESLEY
UNDERSUPERVISION
WHITE RHINO

Horses sired by Doyen
Running over 2m 5f or more
Class 2 or higher grade
Absent more than 44 days
In fields of 4 or more horses
Have a 0-42 record in them

The following horses fail this

LORD BADDESLEY
UNDERSUPERVISION
WHITE RHINO

Every winner of this race
Came from 2m 6f or further
The following horses do not

LORD BADDESLEY
FIDELIO VALLIS
SOME SCOPE

SOME SCOPE is a 7yo
Not the best age for this
None have won for 20 years

He was 2nd in last years race
But only 2 horses finished then
Has a bit more weight this year
SOME SCOPE pulled up last time
That adds another layer of doubt

THE KNIPHAND is a 7 year old
Not convinced he's done enough
And 20 renewals since a 7yo won

MONTE IGUELDO is underraced

MORODER is 11 years old
He has a break of 111 days
The longest absent winner
Won with 70 days absence
MORODER fails this statistic

SURREY QUEST is an 8 year old
Placed over 3m 7f last time out
He is dropping 5f in trip here
That has not been a winning formula

None won from 3m 3f or further
Running in the previous 48 days
Only 12 tried but none have won

ERNE RIVER is a 10yo
Not an obvious chance
But has good track form
Can not rule him out

HYMAC is 9 years old
Lightly raced with 63 days off
No surprise if he does win this
But he has had just 10 races

Horses with under 13 runs
Have a weak 1-30 record
The only winner managing it
Had a win just 16 days earlier
HYMAC faces 63 days absence
Which impacts his sire stats

Horses sired by Ask
Running over 3m 2f or more
Class 2 and higher grade
Absent more than 33 days
Have a 0-10 record so far
Inconclusive but none won
And he fails two angles here

WEVEALLBEENCAUGHT an 8yo
Has just had a stable upgrade
Won last time and sure to stay
No real profile concerns either

Nearly went with him as a win bet
With The Kniphand a place saver

Selection

WEVEALLBEENCAUGHT 6/1-11/2

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4

 

 

Newbury 3.45

5/1 Billytherealbigred 7/1 Kandoo Kid
7/1 Vincenzo, 8/1 Saint Segal, 9/1 Le Milos
9/1 Scarface, 14/1 Beau Balko, 14/1 Kotmask
14/1 Tedley, 16/1 Midnight River, Paint The Dream
16/1 Prince Quali, 20/1 Booster Bob, 40/1 Light N Strike
50/1 Spyglass Hill.

Greatwood Gold Cup

Handicap Chase 2m 4f

KANDOO KID is topweight
Has to defy a rating of 152
With an absence of 91 days

All 19 past winners of this
Ran within the last 70 days
KANDOO KID fails this stat

Horses rated 150 or more
Have a 0-19 record in this
KANDOO KID fails this too

Horses aged 6-7-8 are best

Not been a very good race
For the older horses in this

19 past renewals show

Horses aged 9 or older
Carrying 10st 10lbs or more
Have a winless 0-73 record

KANDOO KID fails this angle

MIDNIGHT RIVER fails this
Has a nasty 59 day break too

LE MILOS a 10yo also fail this
He is exposed and won last time
Horses doing that are just 1-42

LIGHT N STRIKE also fails this
PAINT THE DREAM fails it as well

SPYGLASS HILL is too old
PAINT THE DREAM likewise

BILLYTHEREALBIGRED is a 5yo

In the 19 past renewals
No horse aged 5 has ran
He will be the first to do it

Might be asking quite a lot
No past winner as he does
Came from a Novice handicap
He only has 3 past chase runs

Recent winners of this
Had the following Chase runs

8 13 14 3 22 19 4 9
13 8 11 15 9 12 10

Only 2 past winners
Had fewer than 5 chase runs
They were both 2 years older
BILLYTHEREALBIGRED fails
With just the 1 run in 85 days
There are factors against him
Including this interesting angle

Go back to 2004
January to March
Handicap Chases
Listed and graded class
Any distance
Horses aged 5
Have a 0-24 record in them
BILLYTHEREALBIGRED fails this

Horses aged 8 or more
Coming from 2m 1f or less
Have a 0-24 record in this
PRINCE QUALI fails this

TEDLEY comes from 2 miles
None of the past winners that did
Were beaten as far as he was

The 7yo past winners
Had 4 3 8 9 10 5 chase runs
No horses aged 7
With more than 10 chase runs
Have managed to win this yet
The following all fail this angle

BEAU BALKO 11 chases
KOTMASK 13 chases
SAINT SEGAL 14 chases

BEAU BALKO is a 7yo
More chase runs than any 7yo
Who has won this race before
Never been in this clss before
Do not see an obvious winner

KOTMASK is a 7yo
More chase runs than any 7yo
Who has won this race before
Has 6 weeks off as a 7 year old

SAINT SEGAL is a 7yo
More chase runs than any 7yo
Who has won this race before
Never won in this class before
Never won off his current rating

This could be relevant

Go back to 2008
January to March
Handicap Chases
Listed and graded class
Any distance
Horses aged 7
More than 10 chase runs
Have a poor 1-77 record

January they are 1-18
February they are 0-17
March they are 0-42
The following all fail this

BEAU BALKO
KOTMASK
SAINT SEGAL

BEAU BALKO with 11 chase runs
Only fails that statistic by one run
Inclined to turn a blind eye to him

Horses under 8
Absent over 5 weeks
From a Non graded race
Have not won this just 7 tried
VINCENZO has this profile
He also comes from 2 miles
Won a Novice Handicap last time
No winners came from a novice
He only has 3 chase races as well
Not unlike the 2007 winner of this
But his absence is twice as long

SCARFACE is an 8yo
Not without some positives
Could this be a prep race ?

BOOSTER BOB is a 7 year old
His 4 chase runs all over 2 miles
Bred to want much further
Has the lowest weight in the race

Could argue he lacks class
On the other side of the argument
You could argue he is well treated

He was eased down last time out
At the price an acceptable risk

Selection

£3.75 Each Way BOOSTER BOB 20/1-18/1

£1.50 Win Bet VINCENZO 6/1-11/2

£1.00 Win Bet BEAU BALKO 9/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5

 

 

 

Doncaster 3.55

6/4 Cloud Dancer, 7/2 Patriotik, 11/2 Kamsinas
6/1 Pretending, 8/1 Good Look Charm, 8/1 Ike Sport
25/1 Idas Boy.

Handicap Hurdle 3m

Class 2 race

Horses rated 0-136

7 runners

CLOUD DANCER

Seems weak in the market
My objection to him is stamina

He was won over 3 miles
That was in a class 4 race
You can argue that's proof
But his sire stats trouble me

Horses sired by Jukebox Jury
Running over 3m and further
Running in Class 3 or higher
Have a 0-17 record so far

Horses sired by Jukebox Jury
Running over 2m 4f and more
Running in Class 3 or higher
Absent more than 27 days
Return a 90-36 record as well
CLOUD DANCER fails both stats

23 past renewals of this

Horses with just 1 run
In the previous 12 weeks
Have a 0-35 record in them
KAMSINAS fails this angle
Having just 1 run in 98 days
Only just fails that to be fair
But he also carries topweight

PATRIOTIK ran 14 days ago
Steps up half a mile in distance

February and March
Similar 3m handicaps show

Horses under 7
Over 5 hurdle runs
Coming from 2m 4f or shorter
Running within 25 days
Beaten last time out
Return a 0-22 record in them
PATRIOTIK shares this profile

PRETENDING could be the one

Stamina could be the issue here

Placed once over 3 miles
In a slightly lower grade race
But sire stats are the concern

Hurdlers
Sired by Make Believe
Running over 2m 5f or more
Have a modest 1-40 record
In Class 4 and higher grade
They have a 0-8 record
PRETENDING would be first
From his sire to win over this far
In this class of race

IDA'S BOY is off to long for an 11yo

IKE SPORT has a chance
But another not sure to stay

Horses sired by Spanish Moon
Running over 2m 7f and more
Absent more than 20 days
Have a 0-42 record so far
IKE SPORT is next to try

GOOD LOOK CHARM could win
Especially with the above negatives
And excuses for his last handicap
Where he was clearly underraced
Problem is he may be again today
As a 9yo with 2 runs in 11 months

This feels messy

Ignore the rank outsider

KAMSINAS could be first choice

He is a 136 rated horse

IKE SPORT can be a cheap saver

Now we have a 0-121 class field

KAMSINAS could outclass them

Don't like that he is underraced

But a class edge balances it out

Throwing in another saver as well

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet KAMSINAS 4/1-9/2

£2.00 Win Bet PRETENDING 9/2-5/1

£1.00 Win Bet IKE SPORT 10/1

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