Mathematician 1789
1 Account Bet
11 Previews
Today's Bet
Kempton 2.40
KAYLIF ARAMIS 9/1
Each Way
M e s s a g e C o n t e n t
There are 11 previews today and overall I like
the message with my usual disclaimer that it's
the hardest day of the week and competitive.
I've left Wetherby. I don't like the shape of the
card. Had to leave Punchestown as well given
an inspection and huge fields. Lots elsewhere
and I have a couple of bets discussed below.
S u n d a y
I will do a message tomorrow. Not sure what
size it will be as it is Wolverhampton so that
needs a bit of care. I think there will be more
than enough to have a decent message and
I am thinking about an Ante Post bet soon in
the Champion Hurdle. That could be anytime.
M e s s a g e H i g h l i g h t s
Today's message starts in an unpleasant fashion
with a grubby each way double. Slow start but I
am only really interested in trying to find a good
account bet at a decent price. I have 2 options.
Kempton 2.40
KAYLIF ARAMIS 9/1
Each Way
Lingfield 3.45
OCEAN APPLAUSE 7/1 Win Bet
ARCHIE RICE 6/1 Saver Bet
I am going with KAYLIF ARAMIS each way as
today's bet. Open race but I like his profile as
a middle weighted mudlark. There are several
with chances but negatives too and I don't see
why he shouldn't go very close. I preferred this
option to the 3.45 at Lingfield another race to
consider having a bet in. KAYLIF ARAMIS has
a great chance and he ticks a lot of boxes for
a Saturday bet not least of all being his price.
Saturday account bets are more speculative
than the rest but we have had more than our
fair share in the last few months and I'd like
to improve that today much as it will be hard.
Warwick Chase
I was hoping for a bet in this race but I've gone
cold on it. My angles suggest LOCH BA may win
with Noble Legend and Royale Knight dangers.
My dilemma is my best profiles are not certain
to appreciate ground and distance. I don't want
to watch a bet fail because of something that's
going to look obvious after the race. Therefore
I am leaving the race now and will just have a
smaller interest bet myself on LOCH BA at 12/1.
Vulnerable Favourites
May not get all of them right but it did interest
me that going through my analysis there are
lots of short priced favourites that look wrong
in some way and fail my statistical testing. I'll
list these. I would not bet any of these horses.
Kempton 1.00 - Closing Ceremony 10/11
Kempton 2.10 - Captain Chris 2/1
Warwick 3.00 - Rathvinden 2/1
Lingfield 3.45 - Havelovewilltravel 2/1
P r o f i l e s A n d P r e v i e w s
K e m p t o n 11.55
5/4 Goodwood Mirage, 5/2 Grey Blue
11/4 Sun Wild Life, 11/1 After Eight Sivola
25/1 Hidden Link, 25/1 The Green Ogre
33/1 Classic Art, 50/1 Fruity Bun.
This 4yo hurdle is dominated by two unraced horses
from the Flat. GREY BLUE and GOODWOOD MIRAGE
are from powerful stables. Nicky Henderson is really
strong in these races. Almost peerless but I find it so
hard to select GREY BLUE especially on Flat Ratings
as he is rated 64 compared to GOODWOOD MIRAGE
a 96 rated horse. Look at the purchase price as well.
GREY BLUE was 15k and GOODWOOD MIRAGE 380k.
That huge price will be a complete waste of money
but it's very hard not to go for GOODWOOD MIRAGE.
There are 145 of these 4yo hurdle races in January.
If you look at horses that came from a hurdle race
with just 1 previous hurdle start you find 30 winners.
However those absent 60 or more days had a 0-36
record. Once raced hurdlers with absences or more
than a couple of months look like they struggle and
this applies to AFTER EIGHT SIVOLA. The danger to
GOODWOOD MIRAGE could well be SUN WILD LIFE
who looks to have a reasonable each way chance.
Personally I would prefer the split stake bet with a
win bet on GOODWOOD MIRAGE and a place bet
on SUN WILD LIFE but prices don't really allow it.
Instead I'm going with a sneaky each way double.
Selection
Kempton 11.55 - GOODWOOD MIRAGE 11/8
Punchestown 12.40 - SI CETAIT CRAI 11/8
Each Way Double
L i n g f i e l d 12.20
Evs Three D Alexander, 9/4 Outbacker
9/2 Voyageofdiscovery, 14/1 Dansante
50/1 Fruit Pastille 66/1 Mistress And Maid
100/1 She4s A Lucky Lady.
* This is a 3yo maiden over 6f
* Two horses look to have the strongest chance
* THREE D ALEXANDER is a filly absent 140 days
* I looked at all January maidens at every trip
* Fillies absent 100 + days were 4-69
* Those with 3 or more runs were 1-22
* THREE D ALEXANDER does set the standard
* She is a filly though and absent a long time
* She has also downgraded stables as well
* Her Top Irish stable got rid of her quite early
* OUTBACKER should be a serious threat
* I looked at twice raced fillies from recent 7f races
* There were 5 horses with her profile
* These finished 3 2 W 4 4
* VOYAGEOFDISCOVERY is unraced
* May win but not for me as I prefer experience
* OUTBACKER just gets the vote at 5/2
Selection
OUTBACKER 5/2
Win Bet
W a r w i c k 12.45
3/1 Don Pooleoni, 7/2 Dungeness
6/1 The Game Is A Foot, 17/2 Lost In Newyork
9/1 Bold Cuffs, 10/1 Cropley, 12/1 Tempuran
12/1 Who4s Jeff, 12/1 Windpfeil, 16/1 Frozen Over
20/1 Dude Alert, 20/1 Tracking Time.
Novice Handicap Hurdle over 2m. No idea what'll
win it but I know a man who knows a man with the
history of CROPLEY. No idea if he is here to do his
best or whether he is fancied or not but I do know
He was with another trainer before moving and it
transpired they found the horse suffered a fracture.
I was told they would give it as much time to heal
as possible and get the horse right. When he does
come right he will be well handicapped and looks
like a gamble in waiting. I don't fancy him myself
today. I know there are 50 Novice Handicap hurdle
races in January and horses absent 80 + days are
0-44. I think long absences are a problem in these
races. Statistically CROPLEY should be beaten but
if he does win it won't shock me as I know a little
about his background. DON POOLEONI does look
interesting if you are prepared to put up with his
10lbs claimer rider. I can't sort this out. Forced to
do something I would put CROPLEY in my horses
to follow list but ignore him today and instead go
with a split stake bet. THE GAME IS A FOOT may
be the place bet. DON POOLEONI the win bet in
a race I can only guess in. Keep the stakes low.
L i n g f i e l d 12.55
11/4 Welease Bwian, 5/1 Monsieur Royale
7/1 Dark Lane, 7/1 Run It Twice, 8/1 Haadeeth
8/1 Lujeanie, 8/1 One Way Or Another
12/1 Rise To Glory, 20/1 Catflap, 20/1 Sister Guru.
* This is a 6f handicap for 0-70 rated horses
* January has 264 similar races
* High draws do win but they underperform
* RUN IT TWICE does have the toughest draw
* I looked at last time out 4yo winners like him
* Several won but most had under 13 career runs
* Those with more like him have a 1-15 record
* RUN IT TWICE has raced 26 times already
* Thats a lot more than any last time 4yo winner
* His profile is nothing special neither is his draw
* WELEASE BWIAN won a Class 6 race 24 days ago
* There are winners with similar absences
* They all had more recent runs though
* WELEASE BWIAN has raced just once in 109 days
* That worries me about his chance
* So does the step up from Class 6 to Class 5
* WELEASE BWIAN has run in 21 Class 5 handicaps
* He has yet to win any of these
* Not sure I'd want him trying again when short of runs
* SISTER GURU - Not raced enough recently for a mare
* CATFLAP is an older mare with a difficult absence
* With limited backclass she isn't safe
* ONE WAY OR ANOTHER is 11 years old
* I looked at 264 races for horses aged 10 or more
* There was a disappointing 1-90 record
* Horses aged 11 or more like him are 0-39
* Given he is 0-16 racing short of 7f he is too unsafe
* DARK LANE won a claimer last time
* Statistically no horse has done that
* Horses aged 5 or more from 5f claimers are 0-19
* There was an 8yo winning from a 6f claimer
* He could pop up but no winners are like him
* HAADEETH is 7 and comes from a 6f Claimer
* There were 3 winners doing this
* They all ran better than he did last time
* It makes him unsafe but still has to be respected
* LUJEANIE is 8 and comes from a 5f race
* I can find winners doing this his age
* This is horse is well treated and this trip looks best
* He is 0-16 in 5f races a reasonable excuse last time
* The worry is he tried to make all over 5f last time
* That was a surprise something he rarely does
* He burst a blood vessel and bled from the nose
* Remains to be seen what effect that will have
* RISE TO GLORY has a reasonable profile
* Could go well and has plenty of positives
* He doesn't have much backclass though
* His track form is also underwhelming
* MONSIEUR ROYALE is 4 and comes from a 5f handicap
* I looked at similar 4 year olds with 10-11-12 career runs
* Those that did not race in the past fortnight
* There was a 1-5 record the winner being Tom Tun
* MONSIEUR ROYALE is like 1 winner and shortlisted
Selection
I would have gone with Lujeanie had he not
suffered bleeding and a broken blood vessel
last time. Instead MONSIEUR ROYALE get the
vote but I want a saver as well on Lujeanie.
MONSIEUR ROYALE 11/2 Win Bet
LUJEANIE 5/1 Saver Bet
K e m p t o n 1.00
4/6 Closing Ceremony, 3/1 Minella On Line
8/1 Harry4s Farewell, 8/1 Spencer Lea, 16/1 Back In June
40/1 Garde Fou.
Messy 3m Novice Hurdle. Before I bet a 5yo over
3 miles when odds on like CLOSING CEREMONY
I would want a much better profile than he offers.
* January has 47 of these races
* Horses aged 5 were 6-65
* When beaten last time out they were only 1-52
* When absent more than 35 days they were 0-22
* CLOSING CEREMONY fails both those angles
* I don't think he is good value at odds on
* MINELLA ON LINE could be the bet
* That said he is also 5 and beaten last time
* He fails that 1-52 record as well
* That said the 1 winner was quite similar
* He had a similar absence and just 1 hurdle run
* SPENCER LEA only has an average profile
* He isn't far off a winner
* HARRY4S FAREWELL has a chance as well
* I found 2 winners aged 7 beaten in maiden hurdles
* I think there are quite a few that could win this
* I want to oppose the favourite
* He is very short. Could easily win but not for me
* His profiles not good. Neither is his price.
Selection
LAY Closing Ceremony evens to half stakes (negative)
Bet HARRY4S FAREWELL 8/1 to half stakes
K e m p t o n 2.10
7/4 Captain Chris, 5/2 Twinlight, 3/1 Champion Court
6/1 Pepite Rose, 12/1 Ghizao, 50/1 Tataniano.
* This is a Handicap Chase around 2m 4f
* January has 69 similar races in Class 2 or higher
* Not my kind of race especially with 6 runners
* CAPTAIN CHRIS - You'd think he has an obvious chance
* Could easily win but something I don't like
* 63 similar races over 2m3f 2m4f 2m5f
* I looked at horses with just 1 run that season
* There were 6 of these winners
* Those aged 10 or more were 0-39
* CAPTAIN CHRIS has this profile
* GHIZAO also has this profile as well
* I would want more runs that season for a 10yo
* I looked at Similar handicaps at any distance
* Thats 184 handicaps in Class 2 or higher at any trip
* I looked at horses aged 10 + with 1 run that season
* There was a 3-127 record
* We know none have won between 2m 3f and 2m 5f
* Those however with 10st 11lbs or more were 0-66
* CAPTAIN CHRIS and GHIZAO both fails this angle
* Now they may go and win and they are smart
* My angles strongly suggest they are vulnerable
* PEPITE ROSE is a mare from a 2m race
* Career high mark her profile isn't perfect
Shortlist
* TWINLIGHT comes from a Graded Chase
* Horses doing this were just 1-16
* That winner didn't come from 2m like him
* TWINLIGHT looks an improver but has lots to prove
* Progressive enough to shortlist
* CHAMPION COURT comes from a Grade 1 Chase
* Not an ideal profile either but must be a player
* Back in trip he looks the one to beat
* I lack a strong positive in this race
* I still feel I can only shortlist these two
Selection
CHAMPION COURT 3/1
Win Bet
L i n g f i e l d 2.35
7/4 Galician, 3/1 Grey Mirage, 5/1 Robin Hoods Bay
6/1 Alfred Hutchinson, 8/1 Chookie Royale
10/1 Emerald Wilderness.
* This is a conditions race over 7f
* Quality race but not much use statistically
* There were 15 of these races in January
* The last was back in 2010 though so none recently
* I wouldn't see the angles in these races significant
* I will try and narrow this down
* EMERALD WILDERNESS is now 10 years old
* 3 years older than any of the 15 similar winners
* I'd rather go with a younger horse
* ROBIN HOODS BAY has 126 days absence
* It worries me more he drops from 12f to 8f
* CHOOKIE ROYALE has a difficult 65 day break
* He has never run at this track before
* He has never won in this class before either
* ALFRED HUTCHINSON has been running well
* He is up in class though and he is 0-8 in Class 2
* In his 8 runs he came only 7 5 4 11 11 7 3 7
* GREY MIRAGE looks shortlistable
* He is up in distance but could improve again
* GALICIAN has the best chance at the weights
* She is a mare adding a twist to things
Racing Post Ratings
Running over 8f at Lingfield
Since 2012
These are the best numbers
106 Galician
104 Emerald Wilderness
102 Alfred Hutchinson
101 Galician
98 Alfred Hutchinson
97 Alfred Hutchinson Grey Mirage
95 Emerald Wilderness
94 Grey Mirage
91 Grey Mirage
Selection - GALICIAN 7/4 Win Bet
K e m p t o n 2.40
9/2 Junction Fourteen, 5/1 Saphir Du Rheu
6/1 River Maigue, 7/1 If In Doubt, 9/1 Home Run
10/1 Foxcub, 10/1 Kaylif Aramis, 10/1 Spirit Of Shankly
12/1 Like Minded, 16/1 Art Professor, 16/1 Maller Tree
25/1 Gores Island, 25/1 Party Rock.
* The Lanzarote is a handicap hurdle over 2m 5f
* Only 6 past renewals of this race
* There are 25 similar handicap hurdles in January
* Thats over 2m 4f - 2m 6f in Class 2 and higher
* I looked at these 25 handicaps
* Horses aged 5 have a poor 1-36 record
* That winner had 13 hurdle runs and Grade 1 form
* JUNCTION FOURTEEN only has 4 runs and Class 3 form
* Results of 25 similar races put me off him
* SAPHIR DU RHEU is also a 5 year old
* With Topweight I feel we should oppose him too
* Horses aged 10 or more are 2-32
* Those from 2m 6f or shorter are 0-17
* LIKE MINDED fails this
* ART PROFESSOR fails this
* No strong objections but neither are like winners
* SPIRIT OF SHANKLY comes from a Novice Hurdle
* Horses doing this were 2-29
* None were aged under 7 like him
* None were absent more than 23 days like him
* SPIRIT OF SHANKLY doesn't offer me enough
Possibles
* IF IN DOUBT is hard to read
* Not sure I want a 6yo with 1 run this season
* Only 1 winner did it- the 2011 winner of this
* He didn't win last time out though
* He had more backclass and came from a better race
* That does leave me a bit cold
* HOME RUN doesn't look the best handicapped
* 20 hurdle runs for a 6yo would worry me as well
* I just wonder if he is too exposed
Shortlist
* RIVER MAIGUE is easy to like
* My main issue with him is 1 run this year
* Don't mind that for lightly raced horses like him
* None managed it with more than 11st 3lbs though
* RIVER MAIGUE has 11st 9lbs. Just worries me a bit
* KAYLIF ARAMIS has a good profile
* Horses like him from 2m with 8-12 hurdle runs do well
Selection
KAYLIF ARAMIS 9/1
Each Way
W a r w i c k 3.00
2/1 Rathvinden, 9/2 Deputy Dan, 9/2 Killala Quay
11/2 Masters Hill, 14/1 Potters Cross
14/1 Splash Of Ginge, 20/1 Garrahalish.
* This is a Grade 2 hurdle over 2m 5f
* Warwick has 9 past renewals
* There are 36 similar races in January over 2m 3f-2m 5f
* Some interesting angles here
* Look at horses with 1 hurdle run
* They are 0-14 in this Warwick race
* In 36 similar races they are 2-36
* None of these came from 2m 2f or shorter
* RATHVINDEN fails this angle
* He comes from a Maiden hurdle
* No winner of this race did that
* Only 1 managed it in 36 other races and had 4 runs
* Look at horses that come from 2m 2f or shorter
* In 9 Warwick renewals they are 0-11
* I looked at 36 other races for horses from 2m 2f or less
* There was an unimpressive 2-64 record
* Male horses from 2m 2f or less were 0-56
* Horses doing this with under 6 hurdle runs were 0-48
* RATHVINDEN also fails both these angles
* Now he gets great respect from Willie Mullins
* He is not like any winners and will be under-priced
* SPLASH OF GINGE also comes from a 2m race
* He too should be avoided on the above angles
* POTTERS CROSS didn't do enough for me last time
Possibles
* CREEPY unseated rider last time
* That drags his profile down
* I looked at male horses aged 7 or more
* Those with under 7 hurdle starts were 1-32
* KILLALA QUAY has this profile and its ordinary
* DEPUTY DAN - I don't mind his profile
* Not my favourite stable though
* MASTERS HILL is hard to read but a positive
* I don't mind 8yo's down in trip at all
* Past chasing form hasn't been the norm though
* I'm going for a split stake bet
Selection
MASTERS HILL 7/1 Win Bet
KILLALA QUAY 5/1 Saver Bet
W a r w i c k 3.35
6/1 Boyfromnowhere, 6/1 Shotgun Paddy
6/1 Vesper Bell, 8/1 Loch Ba, 10/1 Emperor4s Choice
12/1 Hey Big Spender, 12/1 Safran De Cotte
12/1 Victors Serenade, 14/1 Major Malarkey
14/1 Noble Legend, 14/1 Royale Knight
16/1 Any Currency, 16/1 Carruthers
16/1 Master Overseer, 16/1 Same Difference
25/1 Solix.
* The Classic Chase is a 3m 5f Grade 3 Handicap Chase
* This race has often been abandoned over the years
* I looked at 23 similar handicap chases in January
* Those over 3m 4f or more in Class 2 or higher
* I want to start with horses with long absences
* There were 23 similar races and 22 had recent runs
* Only 1 winner had an absence of more than 49 days
* I looked at every National Hunt race in January
* Thats any kind of race over any distance and class
* I looked at horses aged 11 or more
* Those that were absent more than 5 months
* Only 6 horses won from 297 that tried
* Don't forger this includes hurdles as well in any race
* Look at those that had 16 or more National Hunt runs
* There was a miserable 1-171 record from these types
* That winner (King Of The Dawn) only won a Class 6
* This tells me to avoid horses aged 11+ with absences
* CARRUTHERS is rejected as a 11yo debutant
* MASTER OVERSEER is rejected as a 11yo debutant
* Past winners had 3 3 1 2 3 2 6 2 4 runs that season
* There has been a winner with 1 run that season
* I would rather have more if given the choice
* VICTORS SERENADE only has 1 run this season
* The only winners with 1 run had more recent runs
* Absent 62 days is far from a positive in these races
* There are 23 of these races in January
* Look at horses with under 4 Chase starts
* They had a 0-24 record in these races
* 14 of these started 10/1 or shorter several fancied
* So far all winners had 4 or more chase starts
* Until one wins I don't want to risk one
* Horses with 1-2-3 Chase runs should be avoided
* SHOTGUN PADDY only has 3 previous Chase runs
* 24 horses with under 4 chase runs lost so he is out
* BOYFROMNOWHERE also has just 3 Chase starts
* I have to oppose an up in class 7yo with 3 chases
* HEYBIGSPENDER pulled up last time
* That was in the Welsh National a bad trial race
* I looked at horses pulling up last time out
* They had a 0-26 in these 23 races
* These races demand a better last time out performance
* HEYBIGSPENDER may not be fresh enough to win this
* EMPERORS CHOICE also pulled up last time
* I don't want a 7yo without a much better recent run
* SAFRAN DE COTTE also pulled up last time
* With all 26 horses doing that he is unsafe
* SAME DIFFERENCE won at the Cheltenham Festival
* He is probably going there again this year
* Not well handicapped and hasn't hit form yet
* MAJOR MALARKEY is very exposed aged 11
* He has never won off his current mark
* He has never won in this class before either
* I looked at all horses aged 11 or more
* When coming from 3m 4f or more last time all 34 lost
* ANY CURRENCY fails the same statistic
* He is 11 and also comes from 3m 4f or more (0-33)
* No winners came from a Cross Country race like him
* ANY CURRENCY is 0-17 in Class 2 or higher as well
* The ground is also much softer than he prefers
* SOLIX has a shaky profile
* It has been a long time since he has run well
* There is also a serious stamina doubt
Possibles
* VESPER BELL fell at the first last time out
* That effectively means he is a seasonal debutant
* Lovely prospect from high class stable
* He still hasn't had a proper raced in 9 months
* January and February
* Handicap Chases over 3m 2f or more
* In Class 3 or higher
* There are 143 of these races
* Horses absent 5 months or more were 2-72
* One of these was a 5yo (Joaaci) in 2006
* The other was a 10yo (Choisty) in this race in 2000
* Horses 7-8-9 absent 5 + months are 0-12
* Not that many have tried to be fair
* VESPER BELL could be a neutral at best
* There are no winners like him though
* He could have any number of alternative plans
* ROYALE KNIGHT is 8 and won last time
* Hard to judge winning a 4m race last time
* 3 winners did that all with fewer chase runs
* I'd see him as a positive
* Not sure I'd want a Kings Theatre on Heavy at 3m 5f
* There are winners on good to soft at 3m 3f +
* None by this sire on soft or heavy over 3m 3f +
* Semantics involved here about ground descriptions
* It is still an issue that has to be considered
* NOBLE LEGEND is 7 and won last time out
* There were 3 horses with this profile
* They finished PU W 2 having 8 8 3 chase runs
* NOBLE LEGEND has 14 Chase runs
* Thats not in the same range as the other 7yo winners
* None of those came from short of 3m 1f either
* NOBLE LEGEND comes from a 2m 5f race
* None of the 23 winners came from 2m 6f or shorter
* LOCH BA is 8 and has 3 runs this season
* Thats a good profile in these races
* He has a career high mark and hasn't won in the class
* Bit to prove but his profile is fine
* Look at 8 year olds with 3 runs that season
* Rigadin De Beauchene won this in 2013 with that profile
* Ladalko won this in 2007 with this profile
* They had 10 and 13 previous Chase starts
* LOCH BA has 14 Chase runs which isn't far away
* LOCH BA has the best profile here
* The doubts are can he handle very soft over 3m 5f ?
Selection
My angles push me hard towards LOCH BA and suggest
ROYALE KNIGHT is also a player. The Paradox has to be
whether these horses will cope with ground and distance
and if they don't then something unsuitable could win it.
Perhaps NOBLE LEGEND could be the one despite some
aspects of his profile a bit unpalatable. In the end I came
down on LOCH BA as the best profile. I appreciate there
is a risk he won't get home but I'm taking the chance he
will and also going with a saver for some cover.
LOCH BA 12/1 Win Bet
ROYALE KNIGHT 10/1 Saver
L i n g f i e l d 3.45
9/4 Havelovewilltravel, 9/2 Dame Nellie Melba
9/2 Ocean Applause, 7/1 Archie Rice, 8/1 Red Shuttle
10/1 Shirataki, 12/1 Lady Lunchalot, 20/1 Apache Glory
20/1 Planetoid, 20/1 Unmoothaj, 25/1 Sugar Hiccup.
* This is a 10f handicap for 0-74 rated horses
* There are 218 similar races in January
* HAVELOVEWILLTRAVEL is well treated and progressive
* She is a 4yo filly with just 4 runs and will be popular
* There are some statistical problems with her though
* HAVELOVEWILLTRAVEL comes from 8f
* I looked at all fillies aged 4 doing this
* There was a 4-64 record
* Those absent 24 or more days doing this were 0-30
* HAVELOVEWILLTRAVEL has been off 58 days now
* Those with under 7 career starts doing it were 0-14
* There are 15 fillies aged 4 winning in 218 races
* Those with under 7 career starts were 0-50
* HAVELOVEWILLTRAVEL has these angles to overcome
* I am opposing her because of these angles
* PLANETOID ran too badly just 3 days ago
* SUGAR HICCUP was hammered over 12f last time
* I cant find a mare like her winning
* RED SHUTTLE is 7 and absent 103 days
* Not many winners his age defied that absence
* None managed it without far more runs
* Her trainers never trained a winner before either
* APACHE GLORY may not have achieved fitness yet
* SHIRATAKI is an exposed 6yo absent 45 days
* There are 6 year olds winning with similar absences
* I'd have preferred a more recent run though
* I'd also have liked a higher draw as well
* UNMOOTHAJ is 4 and absent 45 days
* He was beaten a long way on his last start
* I can't find a winner like him
* His profile isn't as bad as it may seem though
* Certainly not a negative but not many positives
* He has downgraded yards last summer though
* Overall I couldn't male a good enough case for him
Shortlist
* LADY LUNCHALOT is a 4yo filly with a recent run
* Not many fillies like her have tried to do this
* There were 5 that tried finishing 7 8 2 2 9
* She wasn't at her best last time
* Back over her ideal course and distance today
* I don't think you can rule her out
* DAME NELLIE MELBA is hard to read
* She is a 4yo filly that won last time out
* She has not run in the last 4 weeks
* She has 10 career starts
* I found 2 fillies with 8 and 13 career starts
* They were Baylini and Chella Thriller
* They are close enough to respect and shortlist her
* ARCHIE RICE is an 8 year old
* He has not raced in over 5 weeks
* He has had just 4 runs in the last 22 months
* Those things worry me but he ran well last time
* On that run you'd have to say he has a big chance
* OCEAN APPLAUSE won a claimer last time
* Statistically he is a neutral doing this
* No 4yo has tried to win his profile
* I think there is a lot to like though
* He is fit and running well and effective here
* He has more backclass than most
* I looked at Racing Post Ratings as well
* Those recorded at Lingfield over 10f
79 Ocean Applause
74 Apache Glory - Lady Lunchalot
74 Apache Glory - Unmoothaj
73 Shirataki
71 Apache Glory
* OCEAN APPLAUSE came out top of the lost
* That rating was also achieved last time out
* OCEAN APPLAUSE must be considered here
Selection
OCEAN APPLAUSE 7/1 Win Bet
ARCHIE RICE 6/1 Saver Bet
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Best Wishes
Guy Ward
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk
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