Mathematician 1740


No Account Bet Today

M e s s a g e C o n t e n t

I have previewed 11 races today and although
there's plenty of high class racing much of this
looks complicated. Ascot and Haydock are not
easy. I have done what I can there but I do feel
vulnerable there and I have poked my nose in
places I shouldn't have gone. I feel much safer
at Lingfield but we should take real care today.
I'm betting in 5 of the 11 races I've previewed.


There will be a big Hennessy Gold Cup preview
this coming week before next Saturdays race.

M e s s a g e H i g h l i g h t s

I am a little bit underwhelmed with today's
message. Sometimes when I feel that way
results are surprisingly good but the overall
impression is the message has weak areas.

I like half the message and dislike the rest
5 Races Interest me
These are discussed below

There is an unwritten rule that suggests a
bet must be given on a Saturday and I do
not like breaking that rule but I will when
I have to and I am doing that today. That
said I think the following 5 bets are worth
some smaller stakes and there is always
something to bet in my messages even if
no account bet has been advised that day.

Five Best Bets chosen from the Message


Ascot 1.00 - KRIS CROSS 8/1 Each Way

I thought this horse was about to bolt up at
Carlisle last time but that was heavy ground
and I think he ran out of Petrol. There are a
lot of positives to his chance and he looks a
good value bet without being a great one.

Haydock 1.15

GORGEHOUS LLIEGE 9/2 Win Bet

MISTER PHILSON 12/1 + Win Bet

This is the 1st of two interesting marathon 3m5f +
handicap chases. The middle order betting looks
vulnerable with negatives for the 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
favourites. I thought GORGEHOUS LLIEGE would
win if staying but that's not certain. I also wanted
a small bet on MISTER PHILSON as well as he is
interesting despite being unreadable. There are
one or two that could threaten but I feel I have a
reasonably good chance of getting this right.

Lingfield 1.25

RONDEAU 14/1 Each Way

PRINCE OF BURMA 4/1 Saver

I was tempted by a couple at Lingfield but taking
a step back they look a bit too risky. I rejected this
option as I didn't want to risk two smaller horses
in a big field grappling for room. Only an interest
bet for me because of the type of horses they are.

Huntingdon 1.40

SOUDAIN 5/1 Win Bet

ARKOSE 3/1 Saver

This is a handicap chase run over 3m 6f + and a
marathon slog. Some good reasons to bet. Eight
runners. Several Negatives. The record of these
races show a remarkable record from 7 year old
seasonal debutants like SOUDAIN. The downside
is I don't know if he is fit or fancied but his profile
is good enough to make him an automatic choice.
I was in a dilemma about savers as I find it hard
to split Arkose and Rhum. I've gone with Arkose
as the saver but I have to go for SOUNDAIN here.


Lingfield 2.35 - TRIPLE DREAM 7/1 Each Way

I have made a solid case for TRIPLE DREAM 7/1
each way in this race but this is based on so few
of his rivals having run over 5f at Lingfield before.
Drawn 1 and an older horse absent several weeks
he isn't my ideal type of bet. Again this now looks
only a small mention but if course and distance
counts for anything he is one of the best options.

S i r e s a n d S y s t e m s

Exit To Nowhere

* This horse was a miler on the flat in 1992
* He has bred several Flat winners
* He has considerably more National hunt winners
* 167 National Hunt winners all under 3m 3f
* He has bred a winner over 3m 2f 110 yards
* That was around a Tight Fontwell on good ground
* His runners over 3m 3f or more are 0-21
* Only 1 of the 21 runners managed to place
* I would question his runners over 3m 3f or more

Huntingdon 1.40

SMART EXIT 4/1

* This horse is sired by Exit To Nowhere
* He runs over 3m 6f and 110 yards
* Its half a mile longer than any of the sires winners
* On soft ground I would question his stamina

P R O F I L E S & P R EV I E W S

L i n g f i e l d 11.50

11/8 Heska, 7/4 Sheacheval, 12/1 Penara
14/1 Hannah Louise, 14/1 One Picture
16/1 Aweebitowinker, 16/1 Sexy Secret
25/1 Princess Tilly.

* This is a 2yo seller over a Mile
* SEXY SECRET has been backed at a big price
* Connections are respected but she has lots to prove
* SHEACHEVAL and HESKA stand out
* Both come from claiming races within 7 days
* Horses doing this were 5-17
* HESKA is a male from a mile claimer
* SHEACHEVAL is a filly from a 7f claimer
* Either could win but I wouldn't bet anything else
* For me both have too much ability and fitness
* It's close with winners like both
* HESKA has the better draw
* HESKA has the stronger profile of the pair

Selection

HESKA 11/8

Win Bet

H u n t i n g d o n 12.00

7/4 Luci Di Mezzanotte, 15/8 Kayfleur
4/1 Taffy Dare, 5/1 Woodland Walk, 25/1 Dahteste
25/1 Knockturnal, 66/1 Scolt Head Island.

* This is a Mares Novice Hurdle around 2m 4f
* This looks a 4 horse race. Shame there are 7 runners
* KAYFLEUR has just won a recent bumper
* Thats quite a worry statistically
* November has 120 Mares Novice Hurdles
* Thats 120 of these races at every distance
* Look at horses from Bumpers this season
* There was a miserable 2-140 record
* Both winners were 6 and older
* Horses aged 4 and 5 doing this were 0-131
* KAYFLEUR fails this and doesn't look safe
* I don't see her as a negative despite that 0-131 record
* If I look at last time out 4yo winners in that record
* Not that many lost and some were 2nd
* She has a much better chance than that stat implies
* TAFFY DARE is a 4yo from a bumper last year
* There were 2 winners with this profile
* These horses had just 1 and 2 previous bumper runs
* TAFFY DARE has 3 runs and hasn't won yet
* That means she isn't exactly like any winners
* I would also question her stamina in the ground
* TAFFY DARE is a small horse and may not get home
* WOODLAND WALK is 5 and comes from bumpers
* Horses with this profile won 2 similar races
* She could win with a positive profile
* LUCI DI MEZZANOTTE is a 5 year old
* She comes from a Novice Hurdle 165 days ago
* I found 1 winner like her. She's a positive
* I can't help but worry about the absence

Selection

LUCI DI MEZZANOTTE 5/2 Win Bet

WOODLAND WALK 7/2 Saver Bet

H a y d o c k 12.10

4/1 Honour System, 5/1 Golden Hoof, 5/1 Quick Decisson
6/1 Hawkhill, 10/1 Ruler Of All, 10/1 Tidal Way
12/1 Captain Brown, 12/1 Ubaldo Des Menhies
14/1 Deepsand, 14/1 Smadynium, 16/1 Bob4s World
16/1 Moujik Borget, 200/1 Sudden Light.

* This is a 2m Handicap Hurdle
* November has 229 of these races
* There are a few fancied horses first time out
* They come from Novice or maiden hurdles
* I thought I'd look at how they came out
* Horses from Novice or Maiden Hurdles last year
* Horses aged 5 doing this were 6-63
* These 6 winners had 2 3 3 3 4 3 hurdle starts
* Those with 5 or more previous hurdle starts were 0-20
* These 20 horses finished in the following positions
* 4 8 10 14 4 UR 7 F 8 14 8 4 7 8 F 4 12 PU 8 PU
* None of these finished 1st 2nd or 3rd
* GOLDEN HOOF has this profile and he looks wrong
* QUICK DECISSON is 5 and a seasonal debutant
* He comes from a Novice Hurdle and has 1 hurdle start
* There were only 3 horses that had his profile
* These finished 10th 4th and Fell at 7/2 9/2 and 2/1
* QUICK DECISSON has a neutral profile at best
* HONOUR SYSTEM is a 6 year old
* He comes from a maiden or novice hurdle
* Horses aged 6 or more doing this were 3-55
* These 3 winners had 4-5-5 Hurdle starts
* HONOUR SYSTEM has 4 which is like 1 winner
* None his age though came from Maiden Hurdles
* Not convinced about any of these
* GOLDEN HOOF should be opposed
* QUICK DECISSON is unsafe but a small sample size
* HONOUR SYSTEM isn't like any winners
* He does get credit for excellent flat form
* I would add the following negatives
* UBALDO DES MENHIES - I wanted a better last run
* DEEPSAND isn't offering enough
* CAPTAIN BROWN may just lack the class
* MOUJIK BORGET - Absence puts me off
* BOB4S WORLD wouldn't be my first choice
* TIDAL WAY - The only 4yo on unsuitable ground
* HAWKHILL - Chances but topweight wont be easy
* RULER OF ALL - Least experienced jockey worries me

Conclusion.

This is a Lethal race. I'd be interested in opposing
Golden Hoof in match bets. HONOUR SYSTEM and
QUICK DECISSON appeal more as savers given the
lack of a run. I want to be clear I don't have much
idea here. I want a fit horse and intend to save on
an unexposed horse. Deep into guessing territory.
I won't be betting here unless it is a match bet.

Selection

Split Stake Bet

RULER OF AL - Win Bet 12/1

QUICK DECISSON 11/10 Place Bet


A s c o t 1.00

9/2 Oscar Davy, 5/1 Ballylifen, 5/1 Shockingtimes
6/1 Deise Dynamo, 7/1 Civil Disobedience, 7/1 Fiddlers Bid
8/1 Polisky, 11/1 Count Guido Deiro, 11/1 Kris Cross
25/1 Comeonginger.

This is a 3m Novice Handicap Chase. These races are
complicated and I could easily take a wrong turn here.

* COMEONGINGER doesn't come out well
* FIDDLERS BID comes from a Novice Hurdle last year
* Not convinced he can defy topweight doing that
* COUNT GUIDO DEIRO - 6yo seasonal debutant weak
* BALLYLIFEN is 6 and ran recently
* He came from a 2m 5f handicap chase
* Only 7 horses did that and all were beaten
* CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE may just be short of experience
* DEISE DYNAMO is 5 and up in distance
* 1 winner like him but older horses are safer
* POLISKY has to prove his stamina
* SHOCKINGTIMES is well treated but up in class
* Going from Southwell to Ascot will fully test him
* OSCAR DAVY fell last time but would have won
* He started the season well treated
* I have him second best

Selection

KRIS CROSS 8/1

Each Way

Lots to like about him with 4 Chase starts and a
generally progressive profile. This is only a 0-124
and KRIS CROSS comes from a 0-132 and I think
he failed to stay on heavy ground at Carlisle over
3m 2f last time. He was shaping like the winner
before he ran out of petrol. Better ground and a
drop in trip will suit and he is well handicapped
over fences compared to his hurdles rating. His
Sire Stats say he wasn't entitled to stay last time.


H a y d o c k 1.15

5/1 Ace High, 6/1 Gorgehous Lliege, 7/1 Nuts N Bolts
7/1 Our Island, 8/1 Red Rocco, 10/1 Chac Du Cadran
10/1 Eleazar, 10/1 Jaunty Journey, 10/1 Lively Baron
10/1 Mister Philson, 12/1 Dusky Bob, 20/1 Incentivise.

* This is a 3m 5f Handicap Chase
* There are about 69 similar races in November
* OUR ISLAND is by Turtle Island
* Horses by Turtle Island struggle at 3m 4f or more
* He's had a 3m 4f winner in a Class 5 race
* I have worries about his stamina
* OUR ISLAND has never won in this grade before
* DUSKY BOB Pulled up last time. I want more runs.
* Horses aged 6 won 6 of the 69 races
* All 6 winners aged 6 ran within a Month
* Those that didn't were 0-17
* RED ROCCO is 6 and absent 294 days
* I looked at similar handicaps over 3m 3f +
* Horses aged 6 first time out had a 0-26 record
* With no 6yo debutant winners I don't want him
* INCENTIVISE is not running well
* On a Career high mark he is rejected
* ACE HIGH has ran once this year
* He was beaten 90 lengths in that race
* It's a very shaky profile with topweight
* I found a couple that were nearly similar
* They had less weight and more experience
* ACE HIGH has just upgraded stables
* His new yard haven't had him any significant time
* I don't see enough positives
* LIVELY BARON has a chance but not sold on him
* He probably wants better ground
* He disappointed last time out
* Almost all 8yo winners had fewer chase runs

Possibles

* JAUNTY JOURNEY is an exposed 10yo
* I looked at horses aged 10 + with 20 + Chase runs
* There was a disappointing 3-68 record
* Those with recent runs were 2-52
* One of those won last time and he didn't
* His 2nd in last years race gets him shortlisted

* CHAC DU CADRAN - I can't rule him out
* This is a better race than last time when he fell
* The Jury is out about his fitness

* NUTS N BOLTS is a 7yo debutant
* Horses aged 7 first time out were 7-26
* They had 6 7 3 12 8 3 Chase runs
* NUTS N BOLTS is fine with 6 Chase runs
* My biggest problem with him is stamina
* Marju hasn't yet bred a winner over 3m 1f or more
* Only 10 months ago he was winning at 2m 4f
* Have my doubts he will get home here with 11st 11lbs

Shortlist

* MISTER PHILSON is an 8yo seasonal debutant
* There were 2 winners with this profile
* He's hard to judge with so much mixed form
* He's been in Ireland in Hunter Chases and Points
* He does look well handicapped off 110
* He looks strong on the numbers as well

* GORGEHOUS LLIEGE is 7 with a recent run
* Looked at similar types with 6-10 Chase starts
* I found a 2-20 record which gets him shortlisted
* There is a stamina issue with him
* His Sires runners are 0-6 at 3m 2f or more
* That is Inconclusive but it is still an issue
* One Positive I do like about him
* Ignore his Chase runs on a sharp track
* Ignore his Chase runs short of 2m 5f
* Under these circumstances he is W 2 W 2
* He will need a career best but not by much
* Last years winner was a similar type
* If he stays he should go close to winning
* Off 10st weight he looks a serious runner

Selection

GORGEHOUS LLIEGE 5/1 Win Bet

MISTER PHILSON 12/1 + Win Bet


L i n g f i e l d 1.25

4/1 Golden Desert, 7/1 Victorian Number
8/1 Ovatory, 10/1 Perfect Haven, 10/1 Prince Of Burma
10/1 Winter Song, 12/1 Athletic, 12/1 Magical Rose
12/1 West Leake, 16/1 Bint Alzain, 16/1 Rondeau
16/1 Saskia4s Dream, 20/1 Shifting Star.

* This is a 7f Handicap for 0-65 rated horses
* Looks too difficult. I ran some profiles
* I would avoid the following horses
* WINTER SONG is absent too long
* OVATORY - doesn't have the right experience
* BINT ALZAIN - Too exposed for filly with big absence
* MAGICAL ROSE - 3yo filly with absence
* PERFECT HAVEN is out for the same reason
* SHIFTING STAR - Don't want an 8yo drawn 14
* GOLDEN DESERT - Profile fine but draw worries me
* Horses drawn 2 have a miserable record since 2011
* WEST LEAKE - Wrong as a 7yo absent 136 days
* SASKIA4S DREAM wouldn't be my first choice
* Not as an exposed mare from a 6f race
* ATHLETIC - I can't rule him out
* It's just a complete lack of backclass after 28 runs

Possibles

* PRINCE OF BURMA isn't running that well
* Go back 10 months and his best form easily wins this
* I don't like the fact he is a small horse with 14 runners
* That said look at his record at 7f and 8f on Sand
* When running in Class 5 or 6 he is W 2 W 2 W
* May have to do it the hard way from the back

* VICTORIAN NUMBER - I looked at horses aged 5 +
* When they were coming from 6f or shorter
* Those absent 40 + days like him were 2-23
* One was Male absent 48 days (Marmooq)
* VICTORIAN NUMBER - I can't make him a negative
* That surprises me but one winner was similar

* RONDEAU has finally got himself fit this year
* I'd have liked a shorter absence for an 8yo
* Last years winner did manage the same aged 8
* I thought the draw damaged him last time out
* RONDEAU therefore is a possible winner

Selection

RONDEAU 16/1 Each Way
PRINCE OF BURMA 5/1 Saver


A s c o t 1.30

7/2 Upbeat Cobbler, 5/1 Top Totti, 6/1 Venceremos
7/1 Scholastica, 8/1 Chilworth Screamer, 8/1 Florafern
8/1 Mistral Reine, Lady Kathleen, 14/1 Fashion Faux Pas
20/1 Lights Of Broadway, 25/1 Va4vite.

* This is a Mares Handicap hurdle over 17f
* There are only 17 similar races in November
* Horses from Handicaps over 18f or less struggle
* None were aged 5 or more
* TOP TOTTI fails that and isn't my choice
* MISTRAL REINE does this as a 4yo
* I wasn't happy with her profile
* FLORAFERN is a seasonal debutant
* She is more exposed than all similar debutants
* All seasonal debutants came from Handicaps
* LIGHTS OF BROADWAY fails that
* FASHION FAUX PAS is a seasonal debutant
* None came from a Novice Hurdle like her
* LADY KATHLEEN comes from a Graded Hurdle
* None of the 17 winners did that and she's unsafe
* VA4VITE didn't do enough last time
* CHILWORTH SCREAMER has 14 hurdle starts
* She's a bit exposed and no 5yo had so many runs
* VENCEREMOS - No winners came from maiden hurdles

Shortlist

* UPBEAT COBBLER has a neutral profile
* No 5yo won a 3m handicap last time out

* SCHOLASTICA is like a winner and shortlistable

Selection

SCHOLASTICA Win Bet 7/1

UPBEAT COBBLER 4/1 Saver Bet

H u n t i n g d o n 1.40

7/2 Arkose, 7/2 Smart Exit, 4/1 Soudain
5/1 Rhum, 6/1 Desperate Dex, 10/1 Bally Sands
14/1 Ballyvoneen, 14/1 One More Dinar.

* This is a Handicap Chase over 3m 6f
* There are 35 similar races at this time of year
* SMART EXIT has problems for me
* Only 1 horse aged 6 has won in 1-22 record
* That horse was a mare in a small field
* It's not the best age group
* SMART EXIT comes from a Novice Handicap Chase
* He has to do this with only 2 chase starts
* Every one of the 35 winners had more chase runs
* Another issue is his sire Exit to Nowhere
* I looked at this sires runners at 3m 3f and more
* All 21 were beaten and they don't look like they stay
* SMART EXIT has too much to prove
* DESPERATE DEX is a 13 year old
* No horse aged 12 or more won any of the 35 races
* He's never won off a rating as high as this before
* ONE MORE DINAR didn't run well enough last time
* BALLY SANDS fell at the first last time out
* He was beaten a fair way on his only real run this year
* He's had 7 Chase runs and already Fell , PU and Unseated
* BALLYVONEEN was beaten too far last time
* 26 Chase runs already and limited backclass

Shortlist

* RHUM has a chance and I think he will stay
* My main worry is whether 14 chase runs is too many
* Almost all the 8yo winners had fewer than that
* I did find an 8yo win with 14 chase runs (Blazing Batman)
* That puts RHUM onto the shortlist

* ARKOSE has some form in better class races
* I looked at 9 year olds with 1 run this year from 3m
* His profile's Ok but it's not perfect
* He has never won a chase before from 8 attempts
* I wouldn't have turned down another run this season

* SOUDAIN is a 7yo seasonal debutant
* Look at the record of the 10 horses with this profile
* W W 5 W W 5 3 4 W PU
* This is a very interesting 5-10 record
* The 5 winners had 6 7 12 8 3 previous Chase run
* SOUDAIN looks fine with 7 Chase starts
* They all came from the top part of the weights as well
* SOUDAIN has the best profile
* We don't know if he is fit on his seasonal debut
* It's a worry every other horse has ran this year
* SOUDAIN though has to be part of the staking

Selection

SOUDAIN 5/1 Win Bet

ARKOSE 3/1 Saver

H a y d o c k 2.25

6/1 Master Of The Sea, 13/2 Gevrey Chambertin
13/2 Two Rockers, 7/1 Gullinbursti, 8/1 Trustan Times
9/1 Lie Forrit, Utopie Des Bordes, 12/1 Ely Brown
14/1 Crowning Jewel, Alfie Sherrin, 16/1 Knock A Hand
20/1 Lovcen, 25/1 Sixty Something, 33/1 Monetary Fund
33/1 Night In Milan, Restless Harry, 33/1 The Knoxs.

* This is a Graded Handicap Hurdle over 3m
* There are only 4 of these races in November
* Thats because this race has been upgraded twice
* I looked at all similar races in Class 2 or higher
* But restricted this to races with at least 12 runners
* Therefore we have 14 similar races to look at
* All 14 winners were aged 5-6-7
* Horses aged 8 or more are 0-89
* The following horses fail this statistic
* ELY BROWN - LOVCEN - THE KNOXS
* KNOCK A HAND - LIE FORRIT
* RESTLESS HARRY - ALFIE SHERRIN
* The 14 winners had the following Hurdle runs
* 11 4 5 6 6 5 15 2 5 5 4 6 4 6
* They all had 15 or fewer Hurdle starts
* MONETARY FUND is too exposed with 27 Hurdle runs
* SIXTY SOMETHING fell in a Novice Chase last time
* Not keen on his preparation
* I looked at horses down from 3m 2f or further
* No horse won having raced that season
* NIGHT IN MILAN fails this and is down from 3m 4f
* I don't think you want that against improvers
* There was a winner from a Grade 1 Novice Hurdle
* That winner was 6 and had just 5 hurdle starts
* MASTER OF THE SEA does this but has 9 runs
* He could be a bit exposed first time with 9 runs
* There were after all just 4 seasonal debutant winners
* These 4 had 5 5 4 6 previous hurdle runs
* Seasonal debutants with 6 + Hurdle runs were 0-42
* MASTER OF THE SEA fails that
* UTOPIE DES BORDES wouldn't be first choice
* She hasn't proved she can stay this far
* She's a very small mare and I don't want that here
* CROWNING JEWEL won over 2m 4f last time
* 1 winner did that in last years race but was younger
* No horse has done it as old as him

Shortlist

* GULLINBURSTI comes from a Chase
* I found 2 winners aged 7 doing a similar thing
* St Matthew (2005) According To Pete (2008)
* Both won this aged 7 from a recent chase
* Neither came from a Novice Handicap Chase
* GULLINBURSTI does this so isn't an exact match
* I would still keep him shortlisted

* TRUSTAN TIMES won this last year with 11st 12lbs
* Same weight this year and can't be discounted

* GEVREY CHAMBERTIN comes from a Grade 1 hurdle
* As a 5 year old I have to make him a Neutral

* TWO ROCKERS comes from a Grade 1 hurdle
* With 4 Hurdle starts he is fine

Selection

TWO ROCKERS 7/1 Win Bet
GULLINBURSTI 8/1 Saver

L i n g f i e l d 2.35

4/1 Sir Pedro, 5/1 Exotic Isle, 6/1 Cheworee
6/1 Senator Bong, 7/1 Rocket Rob, 8/1 Royal Bajan
8/1 Triple Dream, 10/1 Picansort, 10/1 Sandfrankskipsgo
20/1 Powerful Wind.

* This is a 5f Handicap for 0-84 rated horses
* I would make these 2 horses negatives
* CHEWOREE - 4yo filly with just 1 run in 168 days
* SIR PEDRO- 4yo won last time but 74 days absence
* Not easy to find the right alternative

* SENATOR BONG is 3 and comes from 6f
* I looked at 3yo's doing this running within 2 weeks
* Those with under 12 previous runs were 0-16
* SENATOR BONG only has 9 runs
* I do like the fact he has a recent run
* Especially when so many don't in this race
* I can not match him to a winner
* I can find older winners with absences though
* POWERFUL WIND isn't hard to rule out
* SANDFRANKSKIPSGO had a shaky profile

Possibles

* PICANSORT doesn't look right
* Has the best C+D Form in the last 2 years
* Seems to me to be a horse that wins after Xmas
* Career high mark today. Not convinced
* ROYAL BAJAN has a chance if on song
* ROCKET ROB - Shortlistable despite absence
* He has never run over 5f at Lingfield before
* EXOTIC ISLE - I can't rule her out with an absence
* She too has no form over Course and Distance
* TRIPLE DREAM - I'd prefer a more recent run
* That said many of these also have similar breaks

Conclusion

You can look at this in many different ways. One of
the interesting factors is the following horses have
never in their career ran over 5f at Lingfield before

* Rocket Rob - Exotic Isle - Cheworee
* Senator Bong - Sir Pedro

If course and distance here counts for anything then
they have lots to prove. The following interested me.

* Racing Post Ratings
* Lingfield 5f form only
* Since January 1st 2012

90 Picansort
88 Picansort
87 Triple Dream
86 Triple Dream
82 Triple Dream
82 Sandfrankskipsgo
81 Picansort
79 Royal Bajan
77 Triple Dream
72 Royal Bajan - Picansort
70 Picansort

PICANSORT and TRIPLE DREAM have proved far more
over Course and Distance. I like TRIPLE DREAM best.

Selection

TRIPLE DREAM 7/1

Each Way

H a y d o c k 3.00

9/4 Bobs Worth, 5/2 Silviniaco Conti, 6/1 Dynaste
7/1 Cue Card, 9/1 Tidal Bay, 12/1 Long Run
16/1 Roi Du Mee, 20/1 The Giant Bolster.

The Betfair Chase is one of the most important
races of the season and this is mouth watering.
I don't see this as a statistical race. I would not
want to rely on any angles here. One reason is
that due to delayed drainage work this is going
to be run on the Flat course and never has any
race been run at Haydock over 3m 1f before so
we are in the dark straight away. I think it may
be Instinct that gives you the best chance and
yours is just as good as mine. Just instinct tells
me as it will many of you that LONG RUN may
not be up to this anymore. TIDAL BAY is never
one to underestimate but I couldn't bet him as
a 12 year old. I looked at every Grade 1 Chase
run over 2m 6f or more at any time of year and
there have been no 12yo winners for decades.
I don't think THE GIANT BOLSTER will handle
this class. ROI DU MEE won a soft Grade 1 last
time in Ireland. I doubt he will win this and it
may be best to avoid this small horse taking
on some of the best Chasers around. I would
shortlist only 4 horses as the market suggests.

CUE CARD - SILVINIACO CONTI
BOBS WORTH - DYNASTE

* Lets be fair they all have the ability
* We don't know how fit they all are
* We don't know about stamina of some
* Comes down to instinct and guesswork
* SILVINIACO CONTI won last years race
* He had a prep run before though
* This year he lacks that and the race is further
* He did a lot last year when only a 6 year old
* Remains to be seen if it has left its mark
* He also has to prove he can stay this far
* BOBS WORTH is clearly top class
* He could easily win but he is a short price

* CUE CARD - has a recent race
* None of the other shortlisted horses have that
* There is a stamina doubt but its inconclusive
* I wouldn't take his King George defeat as proof
* I wouldn't assume that after just 1 run
* It was Heavy ground that day and a fast pace
* He also made significant early mistakes
* If he stays with a recent run he could win

* DYNASTE would be the least experienced winner
* Only just though and he hasn't done much wrong
* His Cheltenham defeat was excusable in many ways
* Ignore that and he looks capable against anything

Selection

I think BOBS WORTH should be at least a saver
and there's actually a very good case for betting
him each way around 9/4. Unless he falls its not
going to be easy to get him unplaced. DYNASTE
and CUE CARD are both interesting with different
profiles. I think you could bet CUE CARD and lay
him back in running at half the price. It wouldn't
be a surprise if either won. I keep coming back
to BOBS WORTH each way around 9/4 or 5/2 as
he is the best horse and has the least to answer.

BOBS WORTH 9/4 - 5/2

Each Way

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Best Wishes

Guy Ward

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

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