Mathematician 1852

M a i n A c c o u n t

No Account Bet

The start of the Flat today and whilst pleased
and excited it pays to be realistic today. I can
not expect much back from Doncaster. I don't
see any sense in even attempting Meydan so
it will be down to some of the minor meetings
to try and earn some corn today. 11 Previews.

O p t i o n a l A c c o u n t

Uttoxeter 1.40 - SHUBAAT 7/2 Each Way

Navan 2.15 - PAINTED LADY 5/2 Each Way

Kempton 2.55 - GRENDISAR 8/1 Win Bet
Kempton 2.55 - PRESBURG 20/1 Each Way

Stratford 3.05 - STOW 7/4 Win Bet
Stratford 3.05 - BOB4S LEGEND 14/1 Saver

The race that could have developed into an
account bet was the Kempton 2.55pm but I
have not nailed it. I think it's a bit too hard
although I am going to bet both my horses.

Not completely satisfied with the message in
parts but I'm not worried. Looking at the turf
racing is a different discipline and I probably
need a day or two to refresh myself with this.

The Next Few Days

I am planning Sunday and Monday messages
but I might swap them around. Sunday I was
going to send statistics on all races at Aintree
next week but I may do that on Monday now.

The racing tomorrow is stronger than Monday
and it may well pay to do the normal message
Sunday and leave Monday for my Aintree stats
and maybe a preview or two to accompany it.

No Messages Tuesday or Wednesday as I have
to bury my Father and deal with that. Aintree
starts Thursday and I will return then and feel
we should have another betting competition
on the message board with some prize money.

A d m i n i s t r a t i o n I s s u e s

For the benefit of any new members I want to
repeat recent administration issues. Because it
is now the Flat Season the message will have
a makeover as the Flat is a different discipline.

* Message Time is now no later than 12.30
* There will be two Accounts in each message
* The Main Account is just as it has always been

* The Optional Account is a new daily feature
* These bets are optional and not bets I can stake
* They may be short prices or in unusual markets
* They are bets unsuitable for the main account.

There will be more changes coming soon once
my fathers funeral is out of the way and the flat
gets going. I'm behind with E Mail replies which
I apologise for. I know you'll cut me some slack.

Amongst many lovely messages sent about my
father a wise member reminded the quality of
the service depends on intellectual clarity and
that's not achievable with distractions. It's why
I did not have a bet last Saturday and why bets
have been scarce recently. It's a very long year
and last season we returned + 35.96 level stake
profit and very soon I will be trying to beat that.

Y e s t e r d a y 's S u m m a r y

Friday's message went W P L L W which wasn't
too bad starting and ending with a winner. That
was fair enough given all the choices available.

P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S

D o n c a s t e r 1.30

4/1 Flyball, 5/1 Escalating, 6/1 Paddy Again
8/1 Magic Florence, 10/1 Monsieur Jimmy, 12/1 Cornwallville
12/1 Duquesa Penguin, 12/1 Johnny Sorrento, 14/1 Cock Of The North
16/1 Horsforth, 16/1 Mountain Man, 20/1 Hoofithully, 20/1 Northgate Lad
20/1 Well Fleeced, 25/1 Red Connect, 25/1 Toytown, 33/1 Endislie
33/1 Penalty Scorer.

* The Brocklesby is a silly race to have a bet in
* I would just make these suggestions
* I want to Ignore the horses drawn 1-2-3
* 16 of the last 17 winners started 14/1 or lower
* Ignore all the big priced outsiders
* I'd avoid the horses foaled in April and May
* PADDY AGAIN leaves me in two minds
* Great Stable record in the race
* She has the fillies allowance and her rider claims
* That is a profile I quite like
* There are negatives about her though
* Said to be inferior to last years winner and backward
* She only cost #2k at the Sales
* I think the best option is the Split Stake bet
* PADDY AGAIN could fill a place role in this bet
* I think there are 3 options for the win
* FLYBALL obviously can't be ruled out
* HORSFORTH is also considered
* ESCALATING - Very sexy but is Stall 3 too low ?

Selection

Split Stake Bet

HORSFORTH 7/1 Win Bet

PADDY AGAIN- Place Bet 11/8

U t t o x e t e r 1.40

9/4 Allow Dallow, 5/1 Shubaat, 11/2 Sir Pitt, 13/2 Silver Gent
7/1 Golden Milan, 10/1 Yasir, 14/1 Maxilian, 14/1 Minella Hero
16/1 Fruity Bun, 16/1 Hinton Magic, 50/1 Do Be Dashing
66/1 Sing Alone.

* This is a Maiden Hurdle around 2m 4f
* ALLOW DALLOW looked like he was about to win last time
* He then Fell at the second last
* Statistically I need to find horses like him who fell last time
* Horses aged 7
* Falling last time out in the past 6 weeks
* Starting under 40/1
* To my surprise I found a 2-3 record
* Both Back On Line and Dreamy Sweeney have done it
* That should reassure us about ALLOW DALLOW
* There is always the each way option against him
* GOLDEN MILAN doesn't have a good profile
* He was thrashed last time in his only Bumper start
* SIR PITT has suffered injury problems over the years
* He has also just downgraded stables not a good sign
* SHUBAAT has plenty of ability and an engine
* He does have breathing problems though

The choice is ALLOW DALLOW or SHUBAAT each way.
Perhaps I should go with ALLOW DALLOW given I can
find winners like him and SHUBAAT has a wind problem.

What puts me off ALLOW DALLOW is the 8lbs claimer.
He's never ridden a winner in England in 19 races and
if you look at his rides in Ireland he has won a couple
of bumpers but over obstacles he is 0-60 riding there.

Selection

SHUBAAT 4/1

Each Way

D o n c a s t e r 2.05

5/2 Graphic, 11/4 Fencing, 4/1 Guest Of Honour
6/1 Custom Cut, 8/1 Tales Of Grimm, 12/1 Emell
16/1 Butterfly Mcqueen.

The Doncaster Mile is a trappy 7 runner race this
year. I don't want to risk FENCING on the ground.
EMELL may want it faster as well. It will be a big
shock if BUTTERFLY MCQUEEN wins first time out
as a 4yo filly from a 3yo handicap. I don't have a
problem with GUEST OF HONOUR 's profile if he
can handle the ground something we can't know.
TALES OF GRIMM is more positive than negative.
When I first looked at the race my first impression
was that GRAPHIC may find it too hot after much
improvement last year from a low starting base.
Not sure that's a safe assumption. I looked at all
their Racing Post Ratings over this distance and
on soft ground and GRAPHIC came out highest.

Racing Post Ratings
Soft Ground over a Mile

112 Graphic
111 Custom Cut
107 Custom Cut

I am now upgrading GRAPHIC to a saver and my
first choice is CUSTOM CUT. Again I was worried
about his poor record at a Mile but these ratings
show he has run well enough under conditions
to win and I think he's had an upgrade in stable.

Selection

CUSTOM CUT 13/2 Win Bet

GRAPHIC 11/4 Saver Bet

N a v a n 2.15

11/10 Whisper Rock, 7/2 Painted Lady, 9/2 Princess Leya
9/1 Ningbo Express, 16/1 Miss Faithful, 16/1 Why Ask Me
20/1 Killeena House, 20/1 Secret Seven, 25/1 Shesaportrait
25/1 Simple Joys, 33/1 Empress Catherine, Rock On Rachel
50/1 Colla Pier.

The temptation here in this Mares Maiden Hurdle is to
take on the horses from Bumpers like WHISPER ROCK
and PRINCESS LEYA and instead rely on the hurdling
form of PAINTED LADY. There is a case for betting her
each way to try and get a bit of burglary. We will only
get about 5/2 or 11/4 and I'm not sure it's worth the risk
especially as Whisper Rock could be decent and if so
we may only have place prospects. It leaves me cold
and I've reservations but it seems the percentage bet.

Selection

PAINTED LADY 5/2

Each Way

D o n c a s t e r 2.40

2/1 Jack Dexter, 5/2 Tropics, 11/2 Maureen
10/1 Captain Ramius, 10/1 Heaven4s Guest, 10/1 Mass Rally
16/1 Es Que Love, 16/1 Jimmy Styles, 25/1 Dinkum Diamond
33/1 Inxile.

* The Cammidge Trophy is a Listed Class race over 6f
* 10 runners this year and all are seasonal debutants
* Horses aged 8 or more are 0-28 in this race
* JIMMY STYLES is a 10 year old seasonal debutant
* I think that's asking too much
* INXILE is 9 and a seasonal debutant
* None won as old as him and Stall 1 may not help
* He's also the lowest rated horse in the race
* ES QUE LOVE wouldn't be first choice
* Not with 42 runs and downgraded stables over the winter
* Not with a 0-7 record in Pattern Class as well
* DINKUM DIAMOND tends to need his seasonal debut
* He has never won over this distance before and looks unsafe
* MASS RALLY also tends to need his first run of the year
* He is yet to win in Listed Class or higher
* His Racing Post Ratings in March and April look low
* Not sure the smaller field will suit him either
* CAPTAIN RAMIUS is an 8 year old this year
* Horses aged 8 or more are 0-28 in this race
* He was second in this race last year though
* It was a smaller field though and he had a more recent run
* His Monthly record cause some concern
* He has a 8-20 record from July to November
* His record from February to June is 0-13
* This does not look his ideal time of year
* Most of his wins were over further as well

* MAUREEN is a 4yo filly
* Fillies aged 4 have a 1-23 record in recent years
* MAUREEN drops down from a Mile to a 6f race
* There are past winners down in trip
* None were aged 5 and none came from a mile
* Her biggest help will be the smaller field she needs
* Statistically though I can not say she is safe

* TROPICS is the best horse at the weights
* He would be the least experienced 6yo winner
* He is very hard to read
* He is 2-2 in Pattern races and 5-9 at this distance as well
* TROPICS has never run before May though
* That adds another unknown factor into the mix

* JACK DEXTER won this race last year as a 4yo
* What worries me about him is the Group 3 penalty
* None of the 5yo debutants won with that penalty

* HEAVEN4S GUEST is a 4yo debutant
* There are 4yo debutant winners with 11 and 16 runs
* HEAVEN4S GUEST has 14 and no reason why he can't win
* He escapes any penalties unlike Jack Dexter and Tropics
* Because of that I am giving him the vote

Selection

HEAVEN4S GUEST 8/1

Each Way

N a v a n 2.50

This is a maiden hurdle. It does not sit well to select a
horse at 10/11 in a 27 runner Irish Maiden Hurdle given
we have never heard of half the horses against us but
I thought EMPEROR OF EXMOOR was sure to go close.
I would have preferred it if he was about 11/8 and then
I'd have stick him in an each way double with Stow in
the Stratford 3.05. That is not really an option now as
EMPEROR OF EXMOOR has just gone odds on. He has
to be the selection but like me you'll probably leave it.

Selection

EMPEROR OF EXMOOR 10/11

K e m p t o n 2.55

7/2 Vital Evidence, 6/1 Grendisar, 7/1 Bishop4s Castle
15/2 Rebellious Guest, 8/1 Shavansky, 12/1 Aryal
12/1 Awake My Soul, 12/1 Salutation, 14/1 Streets Of Newyork
16/1 Uramazin, 20/1 Media Hype, 33/1 Presburg.

I rarely do the Rosebery Stakes anymore. Mainly because
in the last few years it moved in distance and went from a
Turf race to the sand. VITAL EVIDENCE is a Micheal Stoute
4 year old. You would expect him to have been far shorter
if confidence was high. He has temperament issues and my
gut feeling is Stoute is trying to win before the better 4yo's
come along. BISHOP4S CASTLE looks wrong to me given
he is a 5 year old with just 6 career runs. That's extremely
lightly raced for a 5 year old in this sort of race so with an
absence I wasn't sold on him. I like 4yo seasonal debutants
but really SALUTATION is too exposed with 24 runs already.
My problem with ARYAL is a combination of coming down
5 furlongs in distance when going up 2 grades in class and
that seems quite a challenge. STREETS OF NEWYORK is a
dual purpose horse so hard to read. All I know is that he's
not like any winners. I looked at all Class 2 handicaps that
were ran over 10f 11f 12f in March and April and no winner
came from a 7f race like him and coming from a maiden I
would have to turn down STREETS OF NEWYORK. I do not
like AWAKE MY SOUL as he has never won off his current
mark or in Class 2 before and has to overcome both these
things on a surface he has never raced on before. Not too
sure about URAMAZIN but I can resist an 8 year old drawn
in what could be the worst stall. REBELLIOUS GUEST has
a chance. I don't like his handicap mark of 100 as he has
never won off more than 92 before and you could not be
sure he will stat 11f here. That said he has a good recent
run and is as fit as anything. SHAVANSKY won last time.
If I look at these Class 2 handicaps over 10f 11f 12f during
March and April no last time out winner won when aged
older than 7 years old. Shortlisting 2 from the same race.

GRENDISAR
PRESBURG

I like GRENDISAR. He is fit and in-form. He is consistent
and has solid track form. PRESBURG is also likeable as
well. He has won over 12f but that might well be too far
given he is by Balmont a sprinter. It's true PRESBURG is
yet to win in this class or from this mark but I don't have
a big issue with that. In December he raced in a Class 2
over this course and distance and was a fast finishing 4th
having been badly hampered when ridden by a claimer.
He's had excuses since. He was in the wrong place next
time at Lincoln and then hated the Southwell Fibresand.
It's a big ask but he should not be 20/1 with recent races.

Selection

GRENDISAR 8/1 Win Bet

PRESBURG 20/1 Each Way

S t r a t f o r d 3.05

2/1 Viking Blond, 5/2 Stow, 6/1 Alsadaa, 9/1 Marju King
9/1 Regal One, 12/1 Dontpaytheferryman, 16/1 Bob4s Legend
16/1 Full Ov Beans, 33/1 Monroe Park, 50/1 Elixir Du Lac
50/1 Gainsborough4s Art, 66/1 Amazingreyce.

* This is a 2m 3f Selling Hurdle
* March and APRIL have 48 similar races
* VIKING BLOND is a long distance chaser
* Sad to see him running in selling hurdles over 19f
* He is out of form at the moment offering little encouragement
* He is a small horse who is battle scared from tough assignments
* Yes this is a big drop in class but I don't like him
* Last time the whip was out after only 3 hurdles
* He Pulled up before the 6th hurdle in that race
* If he wins he wins but I couldn't bet him
* MARJU KING 's recent form also leaves me cold
* I don't see why we should forgive him some poor runs
* FULL OV BEANS has an unreliable profile
* I can't quite rule him out though
* ALSADAA is 11 and absent 593 days off
* I looked for age/absence issues in these 48 races
* No horse aged 7 or more won absent more than 94 days
* I couldn't bet him with that absence as an 11yo

Shortlist

* BOB4S LEGEND - I shouldn't be shortlisting him
* Not as an 8yo absent 188 days
* I just want him on side trained by M Appleby for the 1st time
* Upgrade in stable and this trainer wins often with new recruits

* STOW - I like a recent win in these low grade races
* Surely has to be the safest bet and most likely winner

Selection

STOW 7/4 Win Bet

BOB4S LEGEND 14/1 Saver

D o n c a s t e r 3.15

6/1 Gworn, 7/1 Dance And Dance, 9/1 Brae Hill
10/1 Boots And Spurs, 10/1 Dream Walker, 10/1 Farlow, 10/1 Tellovoi
12/1 Global Village, 14/1 Stand My Ground, Ansaab, 16/1 Dixie4s Dream
16/1 Nameitwhatyoulike, 16/1 Silvery Moon, Freewheel, 20/1 Postscript
20/1 Weapon Of Choice, Amaze, 25/1 Askaud, 25/1 Born To Surprise
25/1 Showboating, 25/1 Yourartisonfire, 40/1 Naabegha.

* The Spring Mile is a Class 2 Handicap over 8f
* Its a Consolation race for horses not in the Lincoln
* Looks far too open to consider having a bet
* Just a few quick notes about this race
* In 15 renewals horses aged 7 or more are 0-61
* I would ignore horses aged 7 or more
* Horses aged 4 have won 6 of the last 7 renewals
* If a photo in 2010 went differently they'd have won all 7
* I looked at every 8f handicap here since 2010
* Horses drawn 17 or higher are 0-47 in all of these races
* I'd be very wary about the very highest drawn horses
* I looked at horses that ran Since January 1st that year
* These horses had an unimpressive 3-136 record
* Those aged 5 or more doing this were 0-88
* The following horses fail this
* Just trying to pick off a few more negatives
* Dream Walker is hard to like with a very inexperienced jockey
* Freewheel - I couldn't trust his trainer to get him fit in March
* Amaze looks out of his class
* I'm left with a shortlist of 5 horses

* FARLOW - NAMEITWHATYOULIKE
* GWORN - WEAPON OF CHOICE

Both Nameitwhatyoulike and Weapon Of Choice are
amongst the 33/1 + Rags and seasonal debutants and
likely to need the run. This day last year I fancied the
seasonal debutant FARLOW in the 6f race and it really
looked like he needed the race just as he did on his
first run in 2012 and I don't want to chance him again
especially coming from a 6f race. This leaves GWORN
who is hardly original but gets the verdict in a race to
watch. This is little more than a statistical exercise.

D o n c a s t e r 3.45

6/1 Gabrial4s Kaka, 7/1 Off Art, 7/1 Tullius, 10/1 Levitate
10/1 Whispering Warrior, 12/1 Sweet Lightning, 14/1 Consign
14/1 Jack4s Revenge, 14/1 One Word More, 14/1 Tres Coronas
20/1 Chookie Royale, 20/1 Hi There, 25/1 Balty Boys
25/1 Mezzotint, 25/1 Ocean Tempest, 25/1 Robert The Painter
25/1 Unsinkable, 33/1 Burano, 33/1 Spa4s Dancer.

The William Hill Lincoln Statistics were sent recently
in a previous message and I said then it wouldn't be
a race I would do much in. It certainly is not worth a
massive preview. Something I found quite interesting
is that TULLIUS is drawn in stall 22 and no horse won
any mile race from that draw at Doncaster since 2004.
Just not sure you want a draw as extreme as that and
as he doesn't mass my angles I'd leave him alone. All
I have done is scan my statistics in the race and come
up with a shortlist of horses I was prepared to accept.

Shortlist

LEVITATE
WHISPERING WARRIOR
JACK4S REVENGE

LEVITATE won this last year but with a much lighter
weight. Doesn't draw me in personally but his profile
is fine and I will be happy if he wins because of that.

WHISPERING WARRIOR scrapes on the shortlist too.
The ground is an unknown factor with him and I am
turning a blind eye to a couple of things but he's on.

Selection

JACK4S REVENGE 16/1

Each Way

I will take a chance on this horse. Not the sexiest of
these but he was beaten only 2 lengths in this race
last year first time out and his stable are in good form.
Not a significant race for me and unlikely to get it right.

K e m p t o n 5.15

5/2 Noble Protector, 7/2 Commissar
4/1 Certavi, 8/1 Flashman, 8/1 Karam Albaari
10/1 Chapter And Verse, 10/1 First Post
20/1 Ocean Applause.

* This is a handicap over 11f
* I looked at similar handicaps over 10f 11f 12f
* Noble Protector is a 4yo filly first time out with 4 runs
* I can find a couple of 4yo fillies winning with under 6 runs
* None that came from 3yo handicaps though
* On Balance I'd oppose Noble Protector
* Hard to choose between some of the alternatives

* COMMISSAR - I'd keep him on my side

* KARAM ALBAARI - Ran well from the worst draw last time

Selection

COMMISSAR 7/2 Win Bet

KARAM ALBAARI 8/1 Saver

****************************************************
****************************************************

Best Wishes

Guy Ward

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

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