Mathematician 4737
Saturday April 27th
8 Previews
0 Account Bet
No Account Bet
Going to wait for Sunday
To go back on the account
Today's Best Bet
Leicester 4.20
£4.50 Each Way BLETCHLEY STORM 9/1-10/1
£1.00 Win Bet CITY ESCAPE 10/1
Favourite Bet(s)
Navan 2.17
£4.00 Each Way My Mate Alfie 9/1-10/1
£2.00 Win Bet His Majesty 4/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
Haydock 5.00
£8.00 Win Bet Amancio 11/4
£2.00 Win Bet Northern Cracksman 7/2
Doncaster 5.05
£7.50 Win Bet Calshot Spit 3/1
£2.50 Win Bet Corsican Caper 3/1
Final Deliberations
8 Previews
The days headline race
The Bet355 Gold Cup
I've never liked the race
Going with an outsider
A real "forgotten" horse
Sandown 3.35
£4.00 Each Way ENRILO 25/1-28/1
£1.00 Win Bet Nick Rockett 7/1-8/1
£1.00 Win Bet Minella Cocooner 9/1-8/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5
Rest of Sandown was too hard
Does not feel a quality message
Lots of previews in lower grades
There are a lot of selections
That are fitness based horses
I fancy quite a few of these
But some are in smaller fields
And prices are not very juicy
Like the strategy in these races
Haydock 5.00
£8.00 Win Bet Amancio 9/4-5/2
£2.00 Win Bet Northern Cracksman 4/1-7/2
Doncaster 5.05
£7.50 Win Bet Calshot Spit 3/1
£2.50 Win Bet Corsican Caper 3/1
Both the above small fields
They come out as bets at 7/4
With stakes back on the danger
Can not realistically stake either
One non runner one price move
And either race could be ruined
There are two options
For a big priced staked bet
Navan 2.17
£4.00 Each Way MY MATE ALFIE 9/1-10/1
£2.00 Win Bet HIS MAJESTY 4/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
This race may just be too difficult
We are betting a fit but inferior horse
Against better horses with negatives
Lot of known unknowns in this race
Pretty clear it is not account strength
This following race is my favourite
But it is not without some major risk
Leicester 4.20
£4.50 Each Way BLETCHLEY STORM 9/1-10/1
£1.00 Win Bet CITY ESCAPE 10/1
BLETCHLEY STORM is drifting
Not surprised she probably should
She is not the most genuine of filly's
Serious chance she gets well beaten
But if she is in the mood she can win
Will love the ground and a fit profile
Considered staking her
But there are only 3 places
She has to be in the mood to win
And after a stressful Friday
Not sure I'm in the mood either
The main value in this bet
At 10/1 you don't need much on
Lets try again tomorrow
Preview Selections
Leicester 2.05
Thunder Roar 4/1
Each Way
Haydock 2.10
£5.00 Win Bet Cold Stare 9/2
£5.00 Place Bet Sacred Falls 4/5
Navan 2.17
£4.00 Each Way My Mate Alfie 9/1-10/1
£2.00 Win Bet His Majesty 4/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
Sandown 3.35
£4.00 Each Way Enrilo 25/1-28/1
£1.00 Win Bet Nick Rockett 7/1-8/1
£1.00 Win Bet Minella Cocooner 9/1-8/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5
Leicester 4.20
£4.50 Each Way Bletchley Storm 7/1
£1.00 Win Bet City Escape 9/1-10/1
Haydock 4.28
£8.00 Win Bet Nellie Leylax 3/1-11/4
£2.00 Win Bet Aragon Castle 7/2
Haydock 5.00
£8.00 Win Bet Amancio 11/4
£2.00 Win Bet Northern Cracksman 7/2
Doncaster 5.05
£7.00 Win Bet Calshot Spit 3/1
£3.00 Win Bet Corsican Caper 5/2
Yesterday's Summary
That was a tough and brutal day
Managed to find just 1 winner
Jumping Jet was badly needed
Winning the Ulster G. National
Nice winner at a decent price
That repaired plenty of damage
But not enough there was a lot
Bad day but was looking worse
Felt there were mixed reasons
The two sandown races so hard
Probably should have left those
Ata Rangi finished only in 4th
Great angle against the favourite
Which opened the race up to us
But we knew we were guessing
So not surprised we lost the race
But have no complaints with this
Breeze Of Wind finished in 4th
Loser with 2 savers but ran well
Not beaten far very competitive
Just lost out after a long battle
Himalayan Heights a saver bet
Got beat by an unraced 8/1 shot
It happens taking that on the chin
Psalm was 2nd the saver in 3rd
Given the nice frame of the race
That was just a badly staked race
Paddy Elvis disappointed in 8th
He was given far too much to do
But in no way was he unlucky
There was just a lack or urgency
It was desperately miserable then
Before we avoided a real disaster
Thankfully getting the last winner
Overall painful and got a spanking
Yet did not do that much wrong
Did not make it any less painful
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Leicester 2.05
9/4 Al Mubhir, 4/1 Raadobarg, 4/1 Thunder Roar
13/2 Look Back Smiling, 8/1 Magic Memories
8/1 Miss Cantik, 16/1 Big Bear Hug, 20/1 Dashing Roger
40/1 Selwan.
8f handicap
Class 2 race
Horses rated 0-105
AL MUBHIR is favourite
He won this race last season
He was a 4yo with a recent run
Now a 5yo on seasonal debut
Plenty of weight with 9st 11bs
He fails an interesting statistic
April
Class 2 handicaps
Run over a mile
Horses aged 5
More than 11 runs
Carrying 9st 3lbs or more
Have a 0-50 record in them all
AL MUBHIR shares this profile
March to May
Class 2 handicaps
Run over a mile
Horses aged 5
More than 11 runs
Absent more than 28 days
Carrying 9st 5lbs or more
Have a 0-49 record in them all
AL MUBHIR fails this as well
There are complicated profiles
3 horses in this race
Have had 2 runs this season
And return just 7 days later
DASHING ROGER
RAADOBARG
LOOK BACK SMILING
Ran their profiles
Curious about their recent runs
With a view to "rest pattern" theory
Surprised to find in similar races
Horses with over 16 runs
Having 2 runs that season
Return a 0-60 record in them
Regardless of when they last run
Far from convinced about this
But all of these 3 horses
Have a 0-60 profile in these races
MISS CANTIK is a filly
Not for me absent 143 days
SELWAN does not appeal
BIG BEAR HUG a 5yo mare
Races from 11lbs out of the weights
MAGIC MEMORIES a 4yo
Can not be ruled out with a run
Similar races show
Horses aged 4
Under 14 career starts
Just 1 run this season
Absent more than 21 days
Have a 1-17 record in them
That winner was in this race
Al Mubhir won with that profile
MAGIC MEMORIES looks ok
Even if he has 35 days absence
A week more than last years winner
Another concern is his sire
Horses sired by Starspangledbanner
Running over a mile or more
Class 2 and higher grade
Good to soft or worse
Absent more than 19 days
Return a 0-26 record in them
MAGIC MEMORIES fails this
THUNDER ROAR
Just feels the sensible option
Good second in the Spring Mile
Seems the percentage choice
Selection
THUNDER ROAR 4/1
Each Way
Haydock 2.10
11/4 Cold Stare, 9/2 Harry's Halo
11/2 Sacred Falls 8/1 Trilby, 10/1 Hiatus
10/1 Nights Over Egypt, 12/1 Havana Rum
12/1 Heartrate, Mighty Power, 16/1 Hallowed Time
25/1 Loco Lobo, Peachey Carnehan.
6f Handicap
3 renewals
They went to 4-5 year olds
Running within a fortnight
Had a look at the draw
The lowest drawn a worry
Go back to 2016
Haydock 6f handicaps
With over 9 runners
Horses under 5 years old
Drawn in stall 1 and 2
Have a 0-71 record in them
HARY'S HALO fails this
SACRED FALLS fails too
Both fancied with recent races
So may well be asking a lot
To beat both just in the draw
Similar races show
Horses aged 4
Over 21 career runs
Absent more than 14 days
Have a 0-46 record in them
HIATUS fails this statistic
With several having recent runs
Not drawn to horses off weeks
HALLOWED TIME off 74 days
MIGHTY POWER off 67 days
HEARTRATE off 82 days
HAVANA RUM is a 4yo
Wanted another run this season
NIGHTS OVER EGYPT a 4yo
Did not do enough yesterday
TRILBY is a 4 year old
Ran over 5f only 5 days ago
Some positives in that profile
But just as many negatives too
Not ideal but can not rule out
COOL STARE has a recent win
Not a strong profile a 9 year old
But he is the class horse in this
Dropped to a reasonable rating
SACRED FALLS does scare me
So going to split the race this way
Selection
£5.00 Win Bet COOL STARE 9/2
£5.00 Place Bet SACRED FALLS 4/5
Navan 2.17
3/1 Givemethebeatboys, 4/1 His Majesty
4/1 Navassa Island 8/1 Alabama, 8/1 Military
8/1 My Mate Alfie, 12/1 Shandy, 16/1 Bid For Chester
20/1 Money Dancer, 20/1 Power Mode, 20/1 Tarsus
20/1 Vassula Ryden, 33/1 Betsen, 40/1 Lia Fail.
Committed Stakes
Listed race over 6f
3 year olds
GIVEMETHEBEATBOYS
Top rated
Should win at these weights
Despite a penalty to carry
No oast winner defied one
His sire stats worry me more
Bungle Inthejungle his sire
Runners from this sire
Running over further than 5f
Class 3 and higher grade
Absent more than 4 weeks
Have a 0-28 record so far
GIVEMETHEBEATBOYS fails
He may still overcome that
But he has 7 months absence
This won't be his best ground
He will have other targets
So I am going to take him on
Go back to 2011
Navan races under 7f
With under 16 runners
Class 3 and higher grade
Horses drawn 13 or higher
Have a 0-23 record in them
SHANDY has stall 13
NAVASSA ISLAND drawn 14
ALABAMA may need a run
MONEY DANCER looks raw
Aidan runs 3 horses
HIS MAJESTY could win
MILITARY not ruled out
MY MATE ALFIE rated 96
Does need to improve a bit
But he has had 2 recent runs
Just about the fittest profile
With an affordable saver too
Try to get the 1-2-3-4 places
Selection
£4.00 Each Way MY MATE ALFIE 9/1-10/1
£2.00 Win Bet HIS MAJESTY 4/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
Sandown 3.35
3/1 Kitty's Light, 11/2 Threeunderthrufive
7/1 Le Milos, 7/1 Nick Rockett, 8/1 Minella Cocooner
9/1 Amirite, 16/1 Kinondo Kwetu, 20/1 Annual Invictus
20/1 Rapper, Sam Brown, Slipway, 25/1 Certainly Red,
25/1 Does He Know, 25/1 Enrilo 25/1 Weveallbeencaught
33/1 Flash Collonges, Fortescue 40/1 Courtland,
50/1 Bangers And Cash, 66/1 Aime Desjy
Bet365 Gold Cup
Luck will be a big factor here
Picking off a few of these
That do not look safe enough
SAM WINNER the oldest horse
AMIRITE has the longest absence
KINONDO KWETU an 8yo
Has raced just once in 6 months
Past winners official Ratings
140 149 147 140 135 126 148 140 146
135 154 136 142 132 153 135 152 129
Horses rated 150 or more
Are just 0-25 since 2013
THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE fails
Not safe enough sired by Shantou
Horses sired by Shantou
Running in Class 2 or higher
Absent more than 34 days
Running over 3m 3f or more
Have a 0-34 record in them
DOES HE KNOW runs off 154
None have managed that in decades
The last 10 winners
Had the following chase runs
22 6 12 5 3 12 9 11 10 8
Horses with over 12 chase runs
Have a 1-78 record since 2013
Lightly raced chasers
Were dominating this race
Until last years exposed winner
Who won the scottish national
Only 7 days before that victory
Opposing these exposed types
Certainly Red
Courtland
Enrilo
Fortescue
Rapper
Sam Brown
Threeunderthrufive
KITTYS LIGHT also fails this
Won this last year with 22 chases
Tries to win it again with 26 races
Hard race 2 weeks ago at Aintree
Going to take him on 14 days later
Horses from Aintree's National
Have a 0-51 record since 2004
Horses finishing the National 0-32
KITTYS LIGHT fails this statistic
SLIPWAY fails breeding statistics
LE MILOS is a 9yo
Dan Skelton so fully respected
Had 3 races in the last 12 months
All 3 of those with hurdle races
Are they protecting his rating ?
Maybe but he has a tough weight
Horses aged 9 or more
Carrying 11st 1lbs or more
Had a 1-62 record in the race
The only winner Tidal Bay 2012
LE MILOS fails it with 11st 7lbs
Not jumped a fence in 12 months
BANGERS AND CASH up in class
Looms unlikely to cope with this
WEVEALLBEENCAUGHT a 7yo
Hs raced just once in 133 days now
Tough to overcome with just 4 chases
ANNUAL INVICTUS a 9 year old
Has positives in his profile as well
Horses from the Kim Muir are 0-24
But several placed and 3 were 2nd
Finished 6th in this race last year
But has to carry a stone more weight
That burden is quite offputting
MINELLA COCOONER an 8yo
Tough weight but still a positive
Excellent 3rd in the Irish National
When failing some heavy duty stats
NICK ROCKETT is a 7yo
Well beaten in the Irish National
He has only had 8 lifetime starts
Asking a lot to carry 11st 5lbs
But a similar type won in 2021
Before the stewards kicked him out
That horse was ENRILO
Fell in this race in 2023
He was underraced both times
That has been his main problem
He's never really had enough runs
To get himself into form a fitness
Maybe he has this year
Having ran 3 times this season
With 2 runs coming since February
He's won this race off 143
Only faces a rating of 134 today
He is a bit on the exposed side
But last years winner more so
At the price and proven here
Going to make him number 1
Selection
£4.00 Each Way ENRILO 25/1-28/1
£1.00 Win Bet NICK ROCKETT 7/1-8/1
£1.00 Win Bet MINELLA COCOONER 7/1-8/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5
Leicester 4.20
7/2 Roman Tempest, 4/1 Escarpment, 9/2 Macho Sun
6/1 Bletchley Storm, 7/1 Fougere, 10/1 City Escape
10/1 Foursome, Lost In Time, 16/1 Favorite Boy
25/1 Break Point
10f handicap
Scrappy and complicated
Did not like the following
FAVOURITE BOY topweight
Racing first time out this season
Similar races show
Horses aged 4
Over 5 career starts
1 run this season
Have a 0-20 record
FOUGERE has this profile
She is a 4yo filly
Going up in distance
With just 1 run this season
She looks underraced to me
MACHO SUN another 4yo
Just the 1 run this season too
Looks on the bounce here
Coming back just 7 days after it
ESCARPMENT is a 4yo
Not safe down from 2m to 10f
BREAK POINT hasn't done enough
FOURSOME is a mare
Has an unorthodox profile
Comes here from hurdles
Just1 the run in 107 days
There are more likely winners
ROMAN TEMPEST a 5yo
Can not be ruled out first time out
LOST IN TIME may pop up
Does need to improve on last time
CITY ESCAPE is a 7yo mare
Hard to read keep her on side
Had disadvantages last time out
BLETCHLEY STORM a 4yo filly
She is a bit quirky
But is very well handicapped
Won at Southwell 3 runs ago
She had excuses on her last 2
Missed the break each time
Did not handle Brighton last time
She may miss the break again
But she has one of the fittest profiles
Her best figure are on soft ground
She could blow cold and go missing
She could blow hot and take this race
Selection
£4.50 Each Way BLETCHLEY STORM 10/1
£1.00 Win Bet CITY ESCAPE 9/1-10/1
Haydock 4.28
9/4 Offer And Receive, 5/2 Von Baer
7/2 Aragon Castle, 7/2 Nellie Leylax
10/1 Invincible Aura.
3yo Handicap (8f)
Shortlisting the topweights
ARAGON CASTLE
NELLIE LEYLAX
Because the bottom 3 horses
Face some unpleasant tasks
INVINCIBLE AURA is one
Beaten 21 lengths 4 days ago
Would be horrible if he beat me
When trained by Marco Botti
Thats a big recent defeat
OFFER AND RECEIVE
First time out this season
Just 2 career starts so far
He fails this breeding stat
Horses sired by Showcasing
Running over a mile or more
Class 4 and higher grade
Good and softer ground
Absent more than 46 days
Have a 0-56 record in them
OFFER AND RECEIVE fails this
Small field makes his task easier
But it has to be a serious worry
VON BAER the bottomweight
Beaten in a lower grade last time
Not for me from Brian Meehan
Have to wonder if he will stay
His mothers best form was at 5f
ARAGON CASTLE
Has a run this year
Well beaten on heavy ground
Not sure he was there to win
How much he improves is key
NELLIE LEYLAX topweight
The class horse in the race
Loves the ground has the class
If he stays as I think he should
He would be my first choice
Isolating the topweights in this
Selection
£8.00 Win Bet NELLIE LEYLAX 5/2
£2.00 Win Bet ARAGON CASTLE 7/2
Haydock 5.00
3/1 Minstrel Knight, 4/1 Frightening
4/1 Northern Cracksman, 9/2 Amancio
9/2 Quick Away, 6/1 Due Consideration
8f Handicap (3yo)
Horses rated 0-70
FRIGHTENING topweight
She is a filly first time out
Giving weight to fitter males
Her trainer Jack Jones
Has so far won 40 races
But if you look at his horses
With absences of over 64 days
You find none have won (0-29)
May not be the safest of trainers
Happy enough to look elsewhere
MINSTREL KNIGHT rated 69
He is second in the weights
Just 3 runs and 88 days absence
Will he be fit enough ?
Will he stay 8f on soft ?
If you look at his sire Advertise
His runners racing on turf
He's had only 1 winner over 8f +
That horse had a 2 day break
And raced on much faster ground
Every one of his sires runners
Racing on Good to soft or worse
Absent more than 37 days are 0-14
Over any distance and in any class
He's well backed appears fancied
But would prefer a fitter profile
MINSTREL KNIGHT is rejected
DUE CONSIDERATION
Comes here with 48 days off
Coming up in class as well
No horse sired by Due Diligence
Running on soft or heavy ground
When absent more than 33 days
Has won any race beyond 5f
Those that tried are so far 0-21
QUICK AWAY has 6 weeks off
Not a negative but prefer others
He was sold for just 2.5k last year
Staying with the fitter profiles
Selection
£8.00 Win Bet AMANCIO 11/4
£2.00 Win Bet NORTHERN CRACKSMAN 7/2
Doncaster 5.05
3/1 Corsican Caper, 9/2 Abraaj, 9/2 Calshot Spit
6/1 Swinging London, 7/1 Show No Fear, 8/1 Can Can Girl
14/1 Park Paddocks, 20/1 A Poet's Secret, 25/1 Gold Ring
33/1 Lilla Cross.
Handicap 1m 6f
The top two in the weights
SWINGING LONDON
ABRAAJ
Both come from sires
Who have bred no winners
Over as far as 1m 6 furlongs
When it was soft or heavy
Neither have a recent race
So going to oppose them both
SHOW NO FEAR is from a sire
Who also has no winners over 14f +
When the ground is soft or heavy
CAN CAN CAN has a chance
But going with recent returners
CORSICAN CAPER a saver
CALSHOT SPIT fittest profile
Selection
£7.50 Win Bet CALSHOT SPIT 3/1
£2.50 Win Bet CORSICAN CAPER 3/1
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