Mathematician 4720
Sunday April 7th

8 Previews
1 Account Bet 

 


Account Bet
 
 
Bath 3.43

£4.00 Each Way BLIND BEGGAR 12/1-14/1

£2.00 Win Bet GLORIOUS ANGEL 4/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4








 
Final Deliberations  

Downpatrick abandoned
Lost the Ulster National

Carlisle is on
Leopardtsown too
So not all bad news



Message feels a bit strange
Slowed down by inspections

I've aimed for an account bet
Which often affects messages
It can make them disjointed

I like a lot about the message
Bits I am not too happy with
But it is better than yesterday
And feels more like a saturday

 
Carlisle 2.12
THE BIG JETAWAY 11/4-3/1
Each Way
1/4 Odds ( 2 Places)

Had to change this bet
The odds on favourite is out
I was going win and saver bet
But it has now opened up
This won't be a popular bet
Not so sure it should be one
Bit in two minds about this



Leopardstown 2.20

TAKE ME TO CHURCH 11/4-3/1

Each Way

This will be unpopular too
More a common sense bet
Not one I want to rely on



But I want an account bet

This horse

Probably should be that



Bath 4.53

CHANTICO 5/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4

Nasty open race
But a fitness based bet
Ticks all the right boxes



My other option is this


Bath 3.43

£4.00 Each Way BLIND BEGGAR 12/1-14/1

£2.00 Win Bet GLORIOUS ANGEL 4/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4

This is a fascinating class 2
Several fail generic statistics
Not sure these will all survive

This would be a risky bet
By far our least likely winner


But the rewards are tempting
Blind Beggar is not very safe
He could easily blow out here
Opposed him on his last start
Made the running over 6 furlongs
Went off fast and paid a price
Not sure is he will cope with 5f
But he is really well handicapped

A much safer stake to have

£2.50 Each Way Blind Beggar 12/1-14/1
£5.00 Place Bet Glorious Angel 4/5-1/1

I could not stake that as a bet
As not everybody could get on

Came down to a choice of bets



CHANTICO each way at 5/1

BLIND BEGGAR at 12/1-14/1


With the account bets

Doing so well this year

Decided to go with the riskier one

16/1 Hills and Bet365

14/1-12/1 everywhere else








Preview Selections


Leopardstown 1.15
£6 Win Bet Autumn Winter 4/6 +
£4 Place Bet Thequietman 5/4 (2 Places)

Bath 1.58
£7.00 Win Bet Bet Me 3/1 +
£3.00 Win Bet Miss Dolly Rocker 9/4

Carlisle 2.12
The Big Jetaway 11/4-3/1
Each Way
1/4 Odds
1-2

Leopardstown 2.20
Take Me To Church 11/4-3/1
Each Way

Leopardstown 2.55
£5.00 Win Bet  Kitty Rose 6/1
£5.00 Place Bet Buttons 10/11-1/1

Bath 3.43
£4.00 Each Way Blind Beggar 12/1-14/1
£2.00 Win Bet Glorious Angel 4/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
 
Leopardstown 4.05
£6.00 Win Bet Mo Ghille Mar 8/1
£4.00 Win Bet Chantilly 5/4

Bath 4.53
Chantico 9/2-5/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4







Yesterday's Summary   

Was not much good yesterday
We did at least get one winner
That stopped any capitulation
Got the first race badly wrong
Hit back with our only winner
Joseph O'Brien of all people
Trained the horse that did that
Message was about 2 horses
Intinso could finish only third
This looked one of those bets
You want at 4/1 with 4 places
But he was a little bit shorter
And the win bet got punished
There did seem a track bias
Aqwaam got heavily gambled
But he badly missed the break
That contributed to his defeat
Kempton had falsely run races
Felt a fish out of water there
Glad I don't have to play here
For the next several months
Best bet was over the sticks
Blue Beach a well beaten 2nd
Expected a much better race
No obvious excuse to report
Probably just a bad selection






PROFILES & PREVIEWS 



Leopardstown 1.15

4/5 Autumn Winter, 3/1 Versatile, 7/2 Thequietman
12/1 Model Approach, 16/1 Ecureuil Secret, 22/1 Butter Fingers
22/1 Fine Print, 28/1 Crest Of The Moon, Total Look
33/1 Judicial Reward, Noble Andy.

3yo Maiden 8f

AUTUMN WINTER

Aidan

Sets the standard

Short around 4/5
Would not take any lower
But see little to oppose him with

VERSATILE is unsafe

Horses sired by Siyouni
Running over 8f or more
Soft and heavy ground
Absent more than 53 days
Have a 0-32 record do far
VERSATILE 33rd to try
That makes him look weak

Expect the favourite to win
Has some unraced to beat
Nothing that looks serious

There is a right and wrong price

Around 4/5 or better acceptable

Right now he is not that price

So suggesting an alternative bet

Based on opposing Versatile

Having a win and Place Bet

THEQUIETMAN is the place
But having 2 places not the 3

Selection

£6 Win Bet AUTUMN WINTER 4/6 +

£4 Place Bet THEQUIETMAN 5/4 (2 Places)







Bath 1.58

9/4 Bet Me, 11/4 Miss Dolly Rocker
4/1 City Streak, 5/1 Tasman Bay, 9/1 Winter Reprise
10/1 Champagne Piaff, 14/1 Swiss Money
50/1 Adrian.

10f Handicap

Horses rated 0-96

TASMAN BAY is topweight
Recently downgraded stables
Not for me with 326 days off
His current trainers record
Show his runners in class 4 +
Have yet to win with absences
Of more than just six weeks

CHAMPAGNE PIAFF is out
Given he has 910 days absence
Happy to oppose the outsiders
WINTER REPRISE a 7yo
Has raced once since 2022
That was pulling up in a hurdle
Too many doubts about him

MISS DOLLY ROCKER a filly
Can't be ruled out first time out
She did win her last run in 2023
Starts the year on a career high

BET ME another 4yo filly
She has two runs this season
Profile neutral but a fitness edge

CITY STREAK is a 5yo
If fit first time out could win

My breeding stats show

Horses sired by Cityscape
Running over 8f or more
On turf in class 4 or higher
Absent more than 36 days
Have a 0-60 record in them
CITY STREAK fails this
I'm a bit surprised by that
But not going to select him

BET ME can take this

With 2 recent runs on side

He is drifting unexpectedly

Going with a split stake

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet BET ME 3/1 +

£3.00 Win Bet MISS DOLLY ROCKER 9/4









Carlisle 2.12

5/6 Gold Cup Bailly, 6/4 Milcree
13/2 The Big Jetaway, 25/1 Powers Dilemma
66/1 Comemylittleson, 200/1 Flying Sandpiper.
 
Novice Hurdle 2m 3f

Should be a 2-3 horse race

THE BIG JETAWAY an 8yo
Market says the 3rd choice
Just 1 run in over 6 months
Tailed off in a chase fell at last
But he had been on holiday
And was not fit for that run

MILCREE has every chance

GOLD CUP BAILLY likewise
No surprise if he takes the race

But he is an 8yo off 358 days
Not the profile of a favourite

Go back to 2002
April
Novice Hurdles
Any distance
Horses aged 8 or more
Over 2 career starts
Absent over 204 days
Return a 0-77 record
GOLD CUP BAILLY fails this
 
Go back to 2009
February to September
Novice Hurdles
Any distance
Horses aged 8 or more
Over 5 career starts
Absent over 204 days
Return a 0-97 record so far
GOLD CUP BAILLY fails this

Very annoying

GOLD CUP BAILLY a non runner

Have to to go this way


Selection

THE BIG JETAWAY 11/4-3/1

Each Way

1/4 Odds

1-2









Leopardstown 2.20

3/1 Battle Cry, 7/2 Take Me To Church
4/1 Atlantic Coast, Bright Stripes, 6/1 Samuel Colt
10/1 The Liffey, 14/1 Chicago Critic, My Mate Alfie.

7f Group 3

3 year olds

Aidan runs 3 horses

BATTLE CRY has Ryan Moore

SAMUEL COLT is a shorter price

Adds another layer of doubt

Ran some sire statistics

BRIGHT STRIPES came out worst
But nothing significant to base a bet on

You can get imaginative with them
Take the sire Kodiac as an example

His runners of 7f +
Soft or heavy ground
Class 4 or higher
Under 7 career starts
Absent over 66 days
Have a 0-18 record
ATLANTIC COAST fails this
But may not be too significant

TAKE ME TO CHURCH

Two prep runs this season
Racing Post Rating of 101
Surely he is the percentage bet
Each way despite just 3/1

Selection

TAKE ME TO CHURCH 11/4-3/1

Each Way









Leopardstown 2.55

9/4 Buttons, 3/1 A Lilac Rolla, 9/2 Alpheratz
5/1 Kitty Rose, 6/1 Cherry Blossom, 10/1 Wendla
12/1 Mysteries, 14/1 Money Dancer, 20/1 Lexington Belle
25/1 Finsceal Luas, Greenfinch, Sweetest.

1,000 Guineas Trial

7f Group 3

Many of these horses
Will not be at their best today

The very nature of a trial race
More a journey of discovery
 
Aidan runs 4 horses

Always complicates things

BUTTONS looks his best

But just 1 career start a worry

Past winners
Had the following career runs

6 3 5 4 5 2 7 6 6 2 4 12 3

No winners had 1 career starts
Going to oppose the once raced

BUTTONS
MONEY DANCER
 
Go back to 2012

Leopardstown races

Run over  7f 

Run in Class 3 or higher
Under 16 runners
If you look at every horse
Who had under 6 career run
Drawn in stall 10 or higher
You find a 1-41 record in them
SWEETEST fails this draw stat
WENDLA fails this as well

Horses like her
With under 5 career starts
Running in the last 3 months
Have a 0-17 record in this
The following horses all fail

WENDLA
MONEY DANCER
FINSCEAL LUAS
ALPHERATZ

The higher the draw
The bigger your problem is
In high class races at this track

A LILAC ROLLA is favourite
 
Not run in 239 days

Sired by Harry Angel ?

Not inspiring me much

The sires runners
Over 7f and more
Running on softer ground
Absent more than 28 days
Have a 0-13 record so far
Bit inclusive but not a sire
That has shown enough yet
In this class and conditions

CHERRY BLOSSOM may win
But is Aidan's second string

Just for the record

Purely on Breeding statistics

The winner should be one of two
My Breeding stats shortlist is this

Buttons
Wendla

But opposing this

And feel this is the best strategy

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet KITTY ROSE 6/1

£5.00 Place Bet BUTTONS 10/11-1/1







Bath 3.43
 
7/2 Kerdos, 4/1 Glorious Angel, 7/1 Democracy Dilemma
8/1 Silky Wilkie, 10/1 Blind Beggar, 10/1 Rhythm N Hooves
12/1 Desperate Hero, 12/1 King's Lynn, 12/1 Thunderbear
14/1 Punchbowl Flyer, 14/1  Rumstar, 20/1 Baldomero.

5f Handicap

Class 2 race

Horses rated 0-107

April has 30 similar races

Opposing some high weights

Go back to 2005
5f handicaps
Class 2 races
Over 10 runners
Any time of year
Horses aged 4
Absent over 25 days
Carrying 9st 2lbs or more
Have a miserable 0-97 record
The following all fail this

DEMOCRACY DILEMMA
KERDOS
RUMSTAR

Go back to 2001
5f handicaps
Class 2 races
Any time of year
Over 8 runners
Horses aged 4 or older
Absent over 135  days
Carrying 9st 8lbs or more
Have a 0-49 record
KERDOS fails this
RUMSTAR  does as well

BALDOMERO is wrong
Coming down from 8f to 5f

Go back to 1997
Bath 5f races
Any class of race
Any time of year
With under 14 runners
Horses aged 5 or more
Drawn 11 or higher
Have a 0-17 record so far
Few tried but none have won
RUMSTAR has the worst draw
BLIND BEGGAR fails drawn 11

PUNCHBOWL FLYER a 7yo
Has got himself well handicapped
But has never won over 5f
Never won first time out either
Because of that not first choice

SILKIE WILKIE is a 5yo
Exposed but has the ability
His 37 day break is not ideal
Similar 5 year old winners
Ran within the last 3 weeks
Or were seasonal debutants

March April May
5f handicaps
Class 2 races
Horses aged 5
Over 18 career runs
Running that season
Absent over 21 days
Have a 0-47 record
SILKIE WILKIE fails this

This is more damming
Go back to 2007
5f handicaps
Class 2 races
Any time of year
Horses aged 5
Over 26 career starts
Absent over 23 days
Have a 0-82 record
SILKIE WILKIE fails this

THUNDERBEAR a 4yo
Has a tough mark of 104
Yet to win any handicap
When he was rated over 86
Both his handicap wins
Were against his own age group
And in fields of under 6 runners

Go back to 2005
January to July
5f handicaps
Class 2 races
Horses aged 4
Rated 103 or more
Have a 0-29 record in them
THUNDERBEAR fails rated 104

RHYTHM N HOOVES is a 4yo
First time out with 8 career runs
Don't mind his profile statistically
But never raced on softer ground
He is clearly weak in the market
Royal Ascot may be the target
Given he won there last season

GLORIOUS ANGEL a 4yo filly
Recent run there is a lot to like
Opposed her only 5 days ago
She fails the same angle today
Go back to 2007
March and April
Class 2 handicaps
Run over any distance
Fillies aged 4
Running this season
Have a 0-33 record
GLORIOUS ANGEL fails this

DESPERATE HERO is a 4yo
First time out with 17 runs
My angles give him a chance
But  he is a bit exposed now
And first time out and drifting

KINGS LYNN is 7 years old
First time out Andrew Balding
May need it but he is classy
Well treated he could easily win
But other targets may await him
 
BLIND BEGGAR

Not the best of draws
But he is a fit lightweight
He ran well last time out
Making the running over 6f
His numbers are quite clear
If he is close to his best
Then he can win this off 82

Combining the fittest horses

GLORIOUS ANGEL

BLIND BEGGAR

Selection

£4.00 Each Way BLIND BEGGAR 12/1-14/1

£2.00 Win Bet GLORIOUS ANGEL 4/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4




 
 
Leopardstown 4.05

5/2 Chantilly, 5/1 Surfers Paradise, 6/1 Gibbs Island
13/2 Mo Ghille Mar, 7/1 Enthralling, Slaney Swagger
8/1 Tamrat, 11/1 Masoun, 20/1 Signor Ferrari
28/1 Butterfly Bush.

10f Handicap (3yo)

Horses rated 0-89

Always liked this race
Not that it is easy to sort

Fillies have done really well

12 renewals
 
Male horses 4-88

Females are 8-50

They won twice as more
Than males with 38 fewer trying

TAMRAT a male horse
Has 9st 12lbs weight to carry
Horses with 9st 11lbs or more
Have a 0-16 record in this race      
TAMRAT is rejected

Horses with 9st 4lbs or more
Absent more than 16 days
Have a 0-43 record in this race
The following all fail this too

TAMRAT
CHANTILLY
GIBBS ISLAND

GIBBS ISLAND fails a sire stat

Horses sired by Iffraaj
Running over 10f or more
Class 2 or higher
Soft or heavy ground
Have a 1-48 record
Although technically
That winner was 9f 197 yards
 
Horses sired by Iffraaj
Running over 10f or more
Class 2 or higher
Good to soft of worse
With under 8 career starts
Have a 0-37 record
Manufactured angle to be fair
GIBBS ISLAND does fail this
And he is a male horse as well

CHANTILLY is a male horse
Red hot favourite from Aidan
He is much harder to oppose
He fails another quirky stat

Horses with over 3 runs
Absent more than 40 days
Have a 0-48 record in this race
The following all fail this stat

GIBBS ISLAND
BUTTERFLY BUSH
ENTHRALLING
CHANTILLY

CHANTILLY is no negative
But he is on the short side
And history says go female

SURFERS PARADISE is male
First time out for Joseph O'Brien
His sire Ten Sovereigns is unsafe
Has not yet bred a 10f winner
In  any class and in any ground
Will he stay with an absence
In a high class race on heavy ?
Either way I am not risking him

SLANEY SWAGGER is unsafe
Coming up 3f in trip from 7f-10f
SIGNOR FERRARI does this
To be fair that trip jump's been done
But not by a male horse


Most past winners
Did have recent races
 
Most were fillies

So going with a filly

But in a win and saver bet

Selection
 
£6.00 Win Bet MO GHILLE MAR 8/1

£4.00 Win Bet CHANTILLY 5/4







Bath 4.53

9/2 Destinado, 5/1 Big Bear Hug, 7/1 Cavalluccio
8/1 Loughville, 9/1 Chantico, 10/1 Abu Royal
11/1 Platinum Jubilee, 12/1 Expressionless
12/1 Fazayte, Measured Moments, 14/1 Raintown
16/1 Chester Tonik, 20/1 Taritino, 33/1 Serious Look.

10f Handicap

Horses rated 0-75

This looks a bit ferocious
Did not want a long preview
One or two I worried about

DESTINADO is fit and well
Could easily see him winning
But stall 14 or 14 is a problem
TARITINO is badly drawn

PLATINUM JUBILLE is out
1st run after downgrading yards
FAZAYTE is a 9 year old
Oldest by far and months off
EXPRESSIONLESS a 4yo
Did not do enough last time out
CAVALLUCCIO is topweight
Has to step up in distance too
Could not quite match him
MEASURED MOMENTS too
Does not quite offer enough

ABU ROYAL is not a negtaive
But 10f on heavy ground a test
Was not drawn to him much

BIG BEAR HUG is shortlistable
But a clear danger of bouncing

LOUGHVILLE a 4yo filly
Would not be a shock winner
 
CHANTICO

In contrast to many of these
Comes here with a fit profile
Several recent runs on side
 
Selection

CHANTICO 9/2-5/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4

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