Mathematician 4832
Saturday August 17th

9 Previews
1 Account Bet

 

Account Bet

Market Rasen 4.45

GLOBAL ESTEEM 6/4-11/8

Win Bet

 

An unusual strategy today
Having a shorter priced bet

Don't make a habit of this
So no shame in having one
But this will sting if he loses

 

Final Deliberations

Long and heavy message
With the only target today
Another account bet winner

That does some arrogant
But to be fair their record
Has been superb this year
And I intend to improve it
These were the main options

Ripon 3.20

£4.50 Each Way RAMAZAN 8/1-10/1

£1.00 Win Bet DARE TO HOPE 7/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5

Great St Wilfrid handicap
Ramazan may surprise some
Failed an important statistic
But look closely at ratings
He has a serious class edge
The big Racing Post tipsters
Have cottoned onto that too
Dare To Hope worth a saver
In case the low draw bias flips

 

Curragh 2.15

HEAVENLY POWER 7/1-13/2

Each Way

Similar to last weeks main bet
Tough little Curragh handicap
Think there are enough reasons
To consider him for the main bet
But these races are luck reliant
And were only getting 3 places

 

Perth 6.35

CHAOS CONTROL 12/1-11/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4

Handicap hurdle tonight
Maybe the hardest option
But the price is very fair
A lot can go wrong here
Can't promise he runs well
But think he is a good bet

All our options good prices
All large competitive fields

Then it just dawned on me
We don't need a big price
There is no law about this

Short priced account bets
Are pretty rate these days
Are we ignoring the obvious

Market Rasen 4.45

GLOBAL ESTEEM 6/4-11/8

Win Bet

Find his chance irresistible

His main rivals have absences

Recent flat run into a hurdle

There are some inherent risk

Will the race come too soon ?

He could have a major advantage

Maybe a hot knife through butter bet

 

 

 

Preview Selections

Ripon 1.35
£5.00 Win Bet Manila Thriller 13/2-7/1 2nd
£5.00 Place Bet Brastias 10/11-1/1 Lost

Curragh 2.15
Heavenly Power 7/1-13/2 WON
Each Way

Newbury 3.00
Spanish Blaze 9/1-10/1 Lost
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4

Ripon 3.20
£4.50 Each Way Ramazan 8/1-10/1 2nd
£1.00 Win Bet Dare To Hope 7/1 WON
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5

Newbury 3.35
£8.00 Win Bet Kikkuli 5/2 Lost
£1.00 Win Bet Folgaria 12/1-11/1 Lost
£1.00 Win Bet Jumby 14/1-16/1 Lost

Perth 4.30
Polling Day 6/1 3rd
Each Way

Market Rasen 4.45
Global Esteem 6/4-11/8 WON

Curragh 5.45
£7.00 Win Bet Dynamic Force 8/1-9/1 2nd
£3.00 Place Imperial Dream 2/1 (1-2-3-4-5) WON

Perth 6.35
Chaos Control 12/1-11/1 3rd
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4

 

 

 

PROFILES & PREVIEWS

 

Ripon 1.35

10/11 Linwood, 4/1 Brastias, 7/1 Liberatus
9/1 Manila Thriller, 10/1 Hyperchromatic
12/1 Coonawarra Star, 12/1 The Lost Canvas
50/1 Off Spin, 100/1 Toby Two Scoops.

2yo Novice 8f

LINWOOD has 2 runs
Looks quite a reasonably type
But was not that expensive
And seems on the short side

He has to concede a penalty
Can we be sure he will stay 8f ?
Don't feel that's guaranteed at all

The sire never proved his stamina
His mother was only a 5f sprinter
Her father was also a sprinter
Think there is a genuine doubt

LIBERATUS is having his debut
From this sire over a mile first time
Would not see him as a safe bet

HYPERCHROMATIC has a run
Not for me drawn in stall 9 or 9

Ripon 8f races
Horses aged 2
Under 4 career runs
No horses have won
Drawn in stall 9 or more
None with under 2 career runs
Have won drawn 7 or higher
Not that many tried to be fair
But an unnecessary burden

BRASTIAS has 3 runs

MANILLA THRILLER has 3 runs

Both possible each way options

If we go on their numbers
BRASTIAS has done more
But has to give 11lbs weight

MANILLA THRILLER of the pair
Looks a bigger and scopier horse
Going to split stake this win + place

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet MANILLA THRILLER 13/2-7/1

£5.00 Place Bet BRASTIAS 10/11-1/1

 

 

 

Curragh 2.15

5/2 Mehmar, 11/4 Greek Flower, 11/2 Pinar Del Rio
6/1 Torivega, 10/1 Heavenly Power, Jon Riggens
12/1 Apache Outlaw, 20/1 Thunderbear
25/1 Laugh A Minute

6f Handicap

Horses rated 0-99

Similar class 2 races show

Horses aged 5 or older
Absent more than 63 days
Have a 0-40 record in them
Two horses fail this statistic

PINAR DEL RIO
JON RIGGENS

Go back to 2010
May to November
Curragh
6f handicaps
Any class of race
Horses with over 11 runs
Absent over 57 days
Have a 0-155 record in them
PINAR DEL RIO fails this
JON RIGGENS does too

MEHMAR is on a hat trick
Won a maiden and a 0-83
This is a far harder 0-99 race
LAUGH A MINUTE a 9yo
Would be an unlikely type
THUNDERBEAR up in trip
Did not do enough last time

TORIVEGA is a 4yo

Very tempted he is smart

But 9st 12lbs is a lot of weight
He also has the widest draw
Neither of those things ideal

Go back to 2011
Curragh 6f handicaps
With under 12 runners
Horses aged 3 or more
Absent over 12 days
Drawn 9 or more are 0-18
TORIVEGA fails this angle

GREEK FLOWER may win
But she is an older 5yo mare
Without a race in 4 weeks
Her profile is only average

APACHE OUTLAW is a 4yo
Exposed down from a 7f race
Would not be my first choice

Go back to 2006
6f handicaps
Class 2
Any time of year
Horses aged 4
Over 21 career runs
Coming down in distance
Absent over 9 days
Return a 0-38 record
APACHE OUTLAW fails this

HEAVENLY POWER

Smart 6yo
Fit and running well
Big negative 2 runs ago
Had a weak draw last time
And has been dropped 3lbs
In a smaller field and easier race

Selection

HEAVENLY POWER 7/1-13/2

Each Way

 

 

Newbury 3.00

4/1 Waleefy, 13/2 Lethal Levi, 13/2 United Approach
7/1 Starlore, 7/1 Zabriskie Point, 7/1 Zouzanna, 12/1 Silver Samurai
12/1 Spangled Mac, 12/1 Spanish Blaze, 12/1 Streets Of Gold
20/1 Accidental Agent, 20/1Be Frank, 50/1 Documenting.

7f Handicap

Class 2 race

Two of these are too old

ACCIDENTAL FRANK
DOCUMMENTING

SPANGLED MAC unsafe from 5
SILVER SAMURAI a 7 year old
Looks beatable with 5 weeks off
BE FRANK has 7weeks absence
Up in distance wanted more safety
LETHAL LEVI is not safe enough
Up in trip from the Stewards Cup
ZABISKIE POINT is a 3 year olds
Underraced and the widest draw

UNITED APPROACH is a 4yo
Similar races show
Horses aged 4
Absent over 6weeks
Have a 0-27 record in them
UNITED APPROACH fails this
BE FRANK also fails this as well

STREETS OF GOLD topweight
No horse in a similar races to this
Has won with 10st ore more weight

STARLORE has 58 days off
Not really a strong enough profile
When you factor in 9st 6lbs

WALEEFY is a sexy 3 year old
Up in class but has momentum
Shortlisted but stall 10 awkward

ZOUZANNA is a 4yo filly
She is going up 2 grades in class
Beaten in a class 4 last time out
Can not match him to a winner

UNITED APPROACH a non runner

SPANISH BLAZE is a 3yo
Down in trip comes out well
There are more obvious types
But his profile is as safe as any
Well drawn and may yet improve

Selection

SPANISH BLAZE 9/1-10/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4

 

 

 

Ripon 3.20

6/1 Summerghand, 15/2 Dare To Hope
8/1 Wobwobwob 9/1 Kitai, 10/1 Radio Goo Goo
10/1 Ramazan, 12/1 Manila Scouse 12/1 Monsieur Kodi
12/1 Mr Wagyu, 14/1 Ingra Tor, 16/1 Almarada Prince
16/1 Emperor Spirit, 16/1 Rock Opera, Secret Guest,
18/1 Aramram, 20/1 The Turpinator, 33/1 Magical Spirit
33/1Monks Dream.

Great St Wilfrid Handicap 6f

18 runners

We have a 10 year old favourite

SUMMERGHAND is rated 89
Two years older than the others
Very few his age win in this grade

Horses aged 8 or more
Have a 0-58 record in this race
The following horses fail

SUMMERGHAND
MR WAGYU
MAGICAL SPIRIT

The two oldest horses in this race
Also have the two highest draws

SUMMERGHAND is drawn 18
MR WAGYU drawn widest in 19

You can win drawn high at Ripon
Stall 19 won this 2018 and 2021
Those winners were aged 5 and 7

Since stalls renumbered (2011)
Every 6f race at this track
Show horses aged 8 or older
Drawn 14 or higher are 0-26
I think that's a weak draw angle
But none of them have done it
Don't want to bet either of them
Not at their age drawn the widest

RAMAZAN has topweight
He is a 4yo who is rated 103

Horses rated 102 or more
Have a 0-55 record in this
RAMAZAN has this problem
More weight than any 4yo winner

The last 19 winners of this
Were all rated 87 or higher

The following fail this angle
Might lack the class to win

MONSIEUR KODI
MONKS DREAM
ROCK OPERA
KITAI
INGRA TOR
ARAMRAM
SECRET GUEST

Since the stalls renumbered
The following stalls won

6 9 19 17 15 19
10 13 8 4 9 10 16

Horses drawn 1-2-3
Have a 0-39 record
ARAMRAM rated only 86
Looks opposable drawn 1

INGRA TOR rated only 83
Comes up 2 grades in class
Horses from class 4 or lower
Beaten last time out are 0-25
Absent over 14 days are 0-15
INGRA TOR fails both angles

KITAI is a 4yo filly
She is only rated 83
The last 19 winners
Were rated 87 or higher
KITAI is drawn in stall 2
Horses drawn 1-2-3
Have a 0-39 record
That may be difficult for her

THE TURPINATOR drawn 3
Does not look that obvious
Up in class and down in trip

Horses from 7f races
Have a poor 1-61 record
That was a 4yo back in 2002
The following horses fail

THE TURPINATOR
WOBWOBWOB

Horses aged 6 or more
Coming from Class 3 or lower
Absent more than 10 days
Have a 0-35 record in this
The following horses fail

THE TURPINATOR
WOBWOBWOB

Past 3 year old winners
All ran within the last 3 weeks
ALMARADA PRINCE does not
That may be asking too much

RADIO GOO GOO a 4yo filly
Has to come from a 5f race

Go back to 2007
6f handicaps
Class 2 races
Any time of the year
Fillies aged 4
Over 17 career runs
Coming from 5f races
Have a 0-22 record
Fillies of any age are 0-55
RADIO GOO GOO fails this

EMPEROR SPIRIT a 6yo
Passes my main angles so far
But never won in this class
Never won off his current mark
His best figures are on the sand
He will need a clear career best

MANILA SCOUSE is a 5yo
He is up in class and distance
Not too easy to read his profile
The 2022 winner won with it
But he had a 14 day absence
MANILA SCOUSE has 9 days

Go back to 1997
6f handicaps
Class 2 races
Any time of the year
Horses aged 5
Over 22 career runs
Coming from 5f races
From Class 3 or lower
Running within 13 days
Have a 0-58 record
MANILA SCOUSE has this profile

DARE TO HOPE a 4yo
Finished 10th in Stewards Cup
The draw bias killed his chances
He really caught the eye that day
Proven track form is a positive


The Draw

Some recent renewals

Were dominated by high draws

Low draws have won plenty too

This is quite interesting

Ripon 6f races
With 10 or more runners

From those run in 2024
Horses drawn 9 or more are 0-39

From those run in 2023 and 2024
Horses drawn 11 or more are 0-57

From those run in 2022 2023 2024
Horses drawn 12 or more are 0-45

Horses drawn 12 or higher
Last won over 6f here in 2021
When Justanotherbottle won this race
The race was split into two groups

Recent history suggests

Lower draws are better

DARE TO HOPE is drawn 16

RAMAZAN is drawn in stall 6

The last 2 winners were drawn 6

RAMAZAN fails an earlier stat

Horses rated 102 or more
Have a 0-55 record in this

That is the main worry

But going to overlook that

Not many fancied 4 year olds
Have tried to win with that rating
But for me the crucial factor is this

Bosh is a non runner

RAMAZAN rated 103

Only faces a 0-93 class field

Get Magical Spirit beaten
He is an 8yo 50/1 outsider

RAMAZAN then faces a 0-90

He has a serious class advantage

Rated 102 facing a 0-90 field

Selection

£4.50 Each Way RAMAZAN 8/1-10/1

£1.00 Win Bet DARE TO HOPE 7/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5

 

 

 

Newbury 3.35

9/4 Kikkuli, 5/2 English Oak, 9/2 Tiber Flow
11/2 Witch Hunter, 10/1 Folgaria, 14/1 Popmaster
16/1 Jumby.

Hungerford Stakes

None can be ruled out
JUMBY is included in that
He is a past winner in 2021
Has a good run 7 days ago
He could be a spot of value
But does fail this statistic

Horses with over 25 runs
From Group 3 or lower
Have a 0-24 record in this
The following all fail this

JUMBY
POPMASTER
WITCH HUNTER

Past history show us
Horses from the Lennox Stakes
Have a modest 1-36 record
Those beaten in that race 0-33
So not really a good trial race
Two have this stat to overcome

ENGLISH OAK
TIBER FLOW

FOLGARIA is a 3yo
I really dislike the stable
But think this trip must suit

Go back to 2020

Past renewals show

Horses aged 3
With 5-6-7-8 runs
Absent over 40 days
Have a 4-8 record

Won in these years
2010 2011 2015 2021
Many years none tried

That shortlists two horses

FOLGARIA
KIKULI

 

KIKULI is preferred
Going to have 2 savers

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet KIKULI 5/2

£1.00 Win Bet FOLGARIA 12/1-11/1

£1.00 Win Bet JUMBY 14/1-16/1

 

 

 

Perth 4.30

7/2 Southey, 4/1 Cabra Lady, 4/1 United Front
11/2 Polling Day, 6/1 Byron Hill, 7/1 Kells And Connor
8/1 Auld Toon Loon, 14/1 Kentucky Bluegrass
50/1 Sheriff Haskell, 100/1 Apples Destiny
100/1 Golden Swift.

Maiden Hurdle 2m

Several have claims in this

SOUTHEY is a 4 year old
All of his rivals are a bit older
Wouldn't have been my choice

CABRA LADY is an older mare
She comes here from a bumper
I'd rather have hurdle experience
KELLS AND CONNOR is raw
BYRON HILL looks beatable
May be more of a handicapper

UNITED FRONT second last time
When just 18/1 to win at Stratford

POLLING DAY was just behind him
And much shorter in the betting there

He may well reverse the form today
In what was a messy race at Stratford
Dominated by a long odds on shot
POLLING DAY is far less exposed

Selection

POLLING DAY 6/1

Each Way

 

 

 

Market Rasen 4.45

11/8 Dodger Long, 6/4 Global Esteem, 5/1 Rockchoeur
16/1 Cornamona, 25/1 Raincloud, 33/1 Carlton
50/1 Storm Spirit, 100/1 Jtadore De Forgan
100/1 Thunder Gap.

Novice Hurdle 2m

Looks like a 3 horse race

ROCKCHOER is a 4yo
Just bumper form so far
Faces 133 days absence

DODGER LONG is a 4yo
He does have some hurdling form
But he has 159 days absence
First run for a new stable today
He was sold for just 2k last year
So doubt he has much scope

GLOBAL ESTEEM

He has 6 hurdle races

Has the edge on experience

Just 9 days ago

He won on the flat

That was a Class 4 handicap

Find his chance irresistible

Selection

GLOBAL ESTEEM 6/4-11/8

Win Bet

 

 

 

Curragh 5.45

5/1 Dynamic Force, 6/1 Magic Force, 8/1 Ice Cold In Alex
8/1 Ostraka, 10/1 Havana Notion, 10/1 James Henry
12/1 Apollo Prince 12/1 Sunday Sovereign, 14/1 Mags
16/1 Lady Arwen, 16/1 Von Krolock 20/1 Glamorously
20/1 Imperial Dream, Never Shout Never, Saturn Seven
20/1 She's Smart, Summer Snow, 25/1 Aurora Nova
25/1 Theriverrunsdeep, 33/1 Rosato, Smart Impression
40/1 Spirit Of Eagles, 50/1 Princess Rajj, 66/1 Old Chicago.

6f Handicap

Horses rated 0-75

Several 3 year olds in this

That worries me in a huge field

Curragh
6f handicaps
Run during August
Horses aged 3
Have a 3-163 record

Horses aged 3
Under 7 career starts
Have a 0-63
The following all fail

MAGIC FORCE
ROSATO
MAGS
OLD CHICAGO

Horses aged 3
Beaten last time out
By over 5 lengths
Have a 0-93 record
This adds the following
To the list of rejected 3yos
GLAMOUROUSLY
SMART IMPRESSION
APPOLO PRINCE

The highest draws
Will not find this easy
Especially the older types

Go back to 2011
Curragh 6f handicaps
Under 27 runners
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses aged 8 or more
Drawn 13 or higher
The following fail this
ICE COLD IN ALEX
THERIVERRUNSDEEP

SATURN SEVEN a filly
Seems well supported here
But she has 73 days absence
And may not be safe enough

Horses with absences
Have not scored well

Curragh
6f handicaps
Run during August
Horses with over 9 runs
Absent over 35 days
Have a 0-73 record in them
The following all fail this

SATURN SEVEN
JAMES HENRY
SYNDAY SOVEREIGN
AURORA NOVA

Go back to 2010
May to November
Curragh
6f handicaps
Any class of race
Horses with over 11 runs
Absent over 57 days
Have a 0-155 record in them
SATURN SEVEN fails this

OSTRAKA is a filly from 5f
Not that afraid to take her on
PRINCESS RAJJ likewise from 8f

SUMMER SHOW

Loved the drop in trip
She has won over 7f before
But round a bend in a bad race
I just don't think she stays 7f
Certainly doesn't stay a mile
So interested in her over 6f

But she is a 4yo filly
She's had 21 career starts
Has not raced in 30 days
This angle does worry me

Go back to 2007
Curragh
6f handicaps
Any class of race
Any time of year
Fillies aged 4
Over 12 runs
Absent over 13 days
Return a 0-79 record
The following all fail this

SUMMER SHOW
SPIRIT OF EAGLES
SATURN SEVEN

There are that many runners

There will be hidden dangers

DYNAMIC FORCE

Looks interesting

This is a 0-75
Only 4 runs ago
He was in a 0-98 race here
Since won a mile claimers
His best figures are over shorter
Backed up with a good last run
One of the fittest profiles in this

IMPERIAL DREAM does too
Backed him as a saver 2 runs ago
Last time out at Galway
Hadthe worst drawn in stall 19
Caught the eye staying on there
If he copes with 6f he's a player

Too many runners for each way

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet DYNAMIC FORCE 8/1-9/1

£3.00 Place IMPERIAL DREAM 2/1 (1-2-3-4-5)

 

 

Perth 6.35

4/1 Enthused, 9/2 King's Castle, 5/1 Castel Gandolfo
11/2 Kinbara Firstdraft, 6/1 Annie Agnew, 15/2 Oslo
10/1 Cirque Royal, 16/1 Chaos Control, 20/1 Scots Poet
25/1 Cuban Cigar, 25/1Well Planted
33/1 Here Comes Georgie.

2m Handicap Hurdle

Horses rated 0-122

Race history show us

Experience has been helpful
Every winner had at least 8 runs

But you don't want too much
Every winner of this race
Also had under 17 hurdle runs

ANNIE AGNEW is a 4yo filly
She's only had 3 lifetime starts
Only 1 run in 11 months as well
She just looks too raw to me

KINBARA FIRSTDRAFT a 5yo
Has only raced 5 times before
Every past winner had at least 8
He also has a 69 day absence

No horse under 7 years old
Has won this absent over 28 days
Only 14 tried but none have won
ANNIE AGNEW also fails this
HERE COME GEORGIE dies
Rather go for for safer options

Every past winner
Had 17 or fewer hurdle runs

ENTHUSED has ran 20 times
Looks exposed and has topweight
Comes from a 10f flat race as well

CASTLE GANDOLFO is exposed
Might win but his sort have not yet
The same applies to these horses

CUBAN CIGAR
SCOTS POET
WELL PLANTED

CIRQUE ROYAL is underaced
Racing just once in 12 months
KING'S CASTLE is a 5 year old
Done well to win his last 4 races
This is a much higher grade though
May see the end of his good run

OSLO has 11st 12lbs
What bothers me about him
Brought down at the first in May
He's raced just once in 4 months
Could he be in danger of bouncing ?

CHAOS CONTROL

Could be worth a chance

12 hurdle runs sounds ideal

He comes from the best trial race
Market Rasen's summer handicap
Providing the winner of this race
In 2012 2013 2015 2019 2023

CHAOS CONTROL finished 7th
He front ran a big 17 runner field
May have done too much in front
No surprise he was caught late

No guarantee he performs

But well worth the risk at the price

Selection

CHAOS CONTROL 12/1-14/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4