Saturday Feb 17th 2024

Mathematician 4675


7 Previews
1 Account bet

 



Account Bet

     
Ascot 3.00

£8.00 Win Bet SHAN BLUE 7/2-100/30 

£2.00 Win Bet THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE 9/2

Had there been enough 4/1
Shan Blue each way no saver
Would have been the choice

I think he will be 4/1 later on
There is a little bit of 4/1 now
Just not enough for everybody
So going for a win and saver
Not as safe but more rewarding







 
Final Deliberations      

7 Previews

Detailed and intense message
Very good quality in places
But very competitive races
Some of the bigger handicaps
No guarantee to get a return

Couple of soft races as well
Hoping to start with a winner
But the account is the target
Only a few are suitable races

This may be too ambitious



Ascot 2.25
£3.00 Each Way ISSAM 14/1
£2.00 Each Way MOTHILL 25/1-28/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5

My angles surprisingly are clean
They point to these two outsiders



Wincanton 3.42
£6.00 Win Bet RIVER CORNER 14/1-16/1
£2.00 Win Bet STRATTON OAKMOUNT 4/1-7/2
£2.00 Win Bet PENTIRE HEAD 7/2-4/1
 
Strange staking not sure it's right
Rivers Corner could be a single
Each Way rather than have savers
So may need some luck with staking
Not quite strong enough for a bet




Account Bet

Ascot 3.00

£8.00 Win Bet SHAN BLUE 7/2-100/30 

£2.00 Win Bet THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE 9/2


My angles are being tested here
Both the 1st and 4th favourites
Fail some big long term angles
So I hope these play out again








Preview Selections


 
Ascot 1.15
Inthewaterside 5/4
Win Bet

Ascot 2.25
£3.00 Each Way  Issam 14/1
£2.00 Each Way Mothill 25/1-28/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5
 
Ascot 3.00
£8.00 Win Bet Shan Blue 100/30-7/2
£2.00 Win Bet Threeunderthrufive 9/2
 
Haydock 3.15
£6.00 Win Bet My Silver Lining 11/2-6/1
£4.00 Place Bet Iron Bridge 11/8-6/4

Wincanton 3.42
£6.00 Win Bet Rivers Corner 14/1-16/1
£2.00 Win Bet Stratton Oakmont 4/1-7/2
£2.00 Win Bet Pentire Head 7/2-4/1

Haydock 3.50
£6.00 Win Bet Yes Day 11/2-6/1
£4.00 Place Bet Lord Snootie 13/8-7/4

Haydock 4.25 
Isaac Des Obeaux 3/1
Each Way







Yesterday's Summary 
 
Short 4 preview message
Did not start as I'd hoped
Primoz was a major flop
Ransom did win later on
The profit from that one
Paid for the Primoz loser
Escapeandevade also won
But he only the saver bet
About level on the above
So the day came down to
A bet I made my favourite
Sam's Xpress each way 7/1
Beaten and faded into 6th
He went off far too quickly
Racing Post review agreed
Just did too much in front
Looked like a good winner
Matched at 5/4 in running
But it was clear very early
He went off far too quickly
The end result no surprise
Bit frustrated by that race
If he was given a wiser ride
He'd have been 1st or 2nd

  





30 Day Trial

Monitoring what would happen
If we have a daily account bet
Simply a trial not advised bets
 
Account Bet 10
 
Ascot 2.15
Inthewaterside 5/4
Each Way
    
£10 Stakes
 
Current profit

£10 stakes - £20.00
 
Results sequence WWPLLLPLL








PROFILES & PREVIEWS




Ascot 1.15

 6/4 Inthewaterside, 9/2 Vincenzo, 11/2 Idy Wood
13/2 Phantomofthepoints, 10/1 Bucksy Des Epeires
11/1 Casual Observer, Juventus De Brion, 12/1 Pic Roc
33/1 Theyseekhimthere, 40/1 Officer Of State
100/1 Noble Don.

Novice Hurdle 2m 3f

INTHEWATERSIDE is a 6yo

Big strong improving type

Won a handicap last time out
Bucksy Des Epeires met him
Fell at the first as a 16/1 shot
Seems unlikely to reverse form

PHANTOMOFTHEPOINTS is raw
Just 1 hurdle run since November
No horse coming from a 2m hurdle
Won this with just 1 hurdle race
PHANTOMOFTHEPOINTS tries
JUVENTUS DE BRION does too

VINCENZO is a danger

Cost a few quid looks improving
He would be my second choice
Depends on how safe we want it

Could make him a saver at 4/1
Could have a place bet instead
Or we could just have a win bet

Selection

INTHEWATERSIDE 5/4

Win Bet








Ascot 2.25

11/2 Rare Edition, 6/1 Bad, 7/1 Monviel
8/1 Irish Hill, 9/1 Rambo T, 9/1 Teddy Blue, 10/1 Hyland
12/1 Jay Jay Reilly, Santos Blue, 14/1 Issam, 16/1 Mothill
16/1 Soaring Glory, 20/1 Arqoob, Le Milos, 33/1 In The Air
33/1 Ostend.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 3f
 
17 Past renewals 
 
Opposing older exposed types

ARQOOB clearly one of them
 
Horses aged 9 or more
Have a 0-43 record in this
LE MILOS fails this angle
SOARING GLORY does too

BAD is the only 5 year old
Lots to prove with 57 days off
Coming up from a 2 mile hurdle

Horses with over 4 runs
Absent more than 49 days
Have a 0-65 record in this
The following horses fail this

BAD
OSTEND
IN THE AIR
LE MILOS
SOARING GLORY
HYLAND
MONVIEL

MONVIEL comes from a chase
All 32 horses doing that failed

TEDDY BLUE has 15 hurdle runs
Horses with over 12 hurdle races
Absent more than 7 days are 1-56
He looks too exposed for comfort

IRISH HILL won this last year
Arrived in better form in 2023
He is also much more exposed 
 
Horses with over 15 runs
Over 9 previous hurdle runs
Absent more than 7 days
Have a 0-71 record in this
IRISH HILL fails this angle
Might win but not my choice

JAY JAY REILLY is an 8yo
Won the Lanzarote last time
Gone up in weights for this
Testy weight with 11st 7lbs

Horses with 10st 13lbs or more
Having had 13 or more races
Absent more than 14 days
Return a 0-36 record in them
The following horses fail this

JAY JAY REILLY
LE MILOS
SOARING GLORY

RARE EDITION is a 7yo
He is second in the weights
Has to come from a 2m race

Similar handicaps in February
Horses aged 7 or older
Coming from 2m hurdle races
That was not a graded race
Have a 0-34 record in them
RARE EDITION fails this

Go back to 2000
January to March
Handicap Hurdles over 2m 3f +
Run in Class 2 or higher grade
Horses aged 7 or more
Coming from a 2m hurdle
Carrying 10st 10lbs or more
Return a 0-71 record in them
RARE EDITION fails this
 
RAMBO HALL is a 7yo
He has 7 weeks absence

Horses aged 7 or older
More that 4 career runs
Absent more than 39 days
Have a 0-36 record
The following horses fail this

RAMBO HALL
LE MILOS
SOARING GLORY
HYLAND
MONVIEL


SANTOS BLUE could pop up
Bit exposed for a class rise

Horses with over 11 hurdle runs
Coming from a non graded race
Have a 0-41 record in this race
SANTOS BLUE fails this angle
So do the following horses too

IRISH HILL
SOARING GLORY
HYLAND
TEDDY BLUE

ISSAM comes out well enough

MOTHILL also has positives
Hard to see a case at huge odds
But he had excuses at Kempton
He was underraced that day
Should improve from that
 
Selection

£3.00 Each Way ISSAM 14/1

£2.00 Each Way MOTHILL 25/1-28/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5







  
Ascot 3.00

100/30 Victtorino, 4/1 Threeunderthrufive
4/1 Shan Blue, 7/1 Revels Hill 10/1 Do Your Job
11/1 Larry, 14/1 Torn And Frayed
20/1 Ballygrifincottage, Rapper.
 
Swinley Chase

Listed Handicap Chase 3m

VICTTORINO is a 6yo

None his age have won this race
Not keen on him with 11st 8lbs
Because of this long term angle

Go back to 2001
January to October
Handicap Chases over 2m 6f+
Run in Listed and graded races
Horses aged 6
Carrying 11st 4lbs or more
Have a 0-32 record in them all
VICTTORINO shares this profile

The last 6yo that managed this
Was the brilliant Gloria Victus
A long time ago back in 2000
 
Not the biggest field to be fair
So will not be shocked if wins
But his age weight combination
Has not been very successful

Horses with under 13 runs
Have a 0-27 record in this 
BALLYGRIFINCOTTAGE fails

LARRY is the oldest horse
The only winner as old as him
Had far fewer chase races
 
Horses aged 9 or more
Over 13 lifetime starts
Coming from a Non graded race
Have a 0-20 record in this race
The following horses fail this

LARRY
DO YOUR JOB
SHAN BLUE

No recent winner
Came from 2m 3f or shorter
SHAN BLUE would be the first
DO YOUR JOB would be too

REVELS HILL has 294 days off
The longest absence winner
Won with 109 days absence
He's never won in this class
Never won off his current mark
 
Go back to 2004
January to September
Handicap Chases
Run over 2m 1f or more
Run in Listed and graded races
Horses of any age
With over 4 chases
Absent over 161 days
Carrying 10st 8lbs or more
Return a 0-121 record
REVELS HILL fails this
 
RAPPER pulled up last time
He would be an unlikely winner

TORN AND FRAYED may be
Hammered 60 lengths last time

THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE a 9yo
Last seen December at Cheltenham
He was an account bet that day
Each Way finished a gallant 2nd
Made the case in that handicap
He had been badly campaigned
Had excuses for many past runs
He maybe able to outclass these

He has a lot of weight

But is a 152 rated horse
Facing only a 0-43 field

If we can get Victtorino beaten
And have Shan Blue on our side
Then we have the class horses
Facing only a 0-137 class race

SHAN BLUE fails earlier angles
None that would worry me much
A Horse with a lot of good excuses
Not had a chance to get fit for ages
This looks his best oppurtunity

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet SHAN BLUE 7/2 

£2.00 Win Bet THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE 9/2








Haydock 3.15

9/2 Iron Bridge, 5/1 My Silver Lining
11/2 Yeah Man  6/1 Snipe, 13/2 Famous Bridge
7/1 Iwilldoit, 8/1 Credo 16/1 Fontaine Collonges,
16/1 Highland Hunter, 20/1 Chambard
20/1 Full Back
 
Grand National Trial

Handicap Chase 3m 4f

Every one of the runners

Brings some kind of flaw

20 of the last 22 winners
Had under 18 chase races

CHAMBARD does not
He is a 12yo absent 52 days

January February March
Handicap Chases over 3m 4f +
Class 2 or higher
Since 2010
Horses aged 11 or more
Over 12 career runs
Absent more than 42 days
Have a 0-100 record in them
CHAMBARD fails this angle

FULL BACK is underaced
One incomplete run since 2022

YEAH MAN is a 7yo
SNIPE is also a 7yo

Since 1998
Horses aged 7 are 2-37

Since 2008
Horses aged 7 are 0-23

The two previous 7yo winners
Came from listed/graded races
SNIPE only comes from class 3
 
Both had 10st 6lbs or less weight
YEAH MAN carries 6lbs more
Neither of them look very safe

Horses under 9 years old
With under 14 lifetime starts
Have a 0-29 record in this race
The following horses fail this

YEAH MAN with 11 runs
SNIPE with 11 career runs
IRON BRIDGE with 10 runs
 
IRON BRIDGE is an 8 year old
Not many unexposed 8yo's win

Go back to 2004
Horses under 9 years old
Under 20 lifetimes runs
Under 11 Chase runs
Absent more than 14 days
Have a 0-57 record in this
The following all fail this

IRON BRIDGE
FAMOUS BRIDGE
MY SILVER LINING
SNIPE
YEAH MAN

FAMOUS BRIDGE is unproven
On sire stats in these conditions
Horses sired by Fame And Glory
Running over 3m 2f or more
Non cross country races
Class 2 and higher are 0-14
Few tried but none have won
FAMOUS BRIDGE would be first
CREDO shares the same sire too

Horses with over 7 chase runs
Coming from a Handicap Chase
Completed the course last time
But who also failed to win the race
Running within the last 41 days
Have a 0-71 record in this race
The following all fail this

FONTAINE COLLONGES
CREDO

IWILLDOIT is an 11yo
HIGHLAND HUNTER a 11yo
They come from 2m 6f races
Not sure that a safe profile
Coming up 6 furlongs in trip

Go back to 2002
Handicap Chases over 3m 4f +
Listed and Graded races
Horses from 2m 6f or shorter
Running within 90 days
Have won similar races
Those aged 10 or more are 1-111
Those aged 11 or more are 0-43
IWILLDOIT fails this 0-43 angle
HIGHLAND HUNTER does too
The only winner aged 10 or more
Was Ballybriggs in the National

YEAH MAN is well backed
My angles are not impressed
But he is an improving horse

This is another angle
That appears to challenge him

Go back to 2000
January to March
Handicap Chases 3m 3f +
Class 2 and higher grade
Horses aged 7
More than 5 chase runs
Carrying 10st 10lbs or more
Have a modest 1-57 record
YEAH MAN 58th to try this

IWILLDOIT is an 11yo
He fails an earlier age statistic
He is trying to win rated 149

Go back to 2013
Handicap Chases
Run over 3m 4f or more
Listed and graded races
Horses aged 10 or more
Running off 149 or higher
Have a 0-124 record in them
IWILLDOIT fails this angle
Only just but he does fail it
 
Not comfortable with any horse

But my overall interpretation

IRON BRIDGE is shortlistable

Appeals more as a saver bet
Either a win or a place saver

MY SILVER LIGHTNING

Won the Warwick classic chase

He was an account bet winner

Felt like he had fewer negatives

Has to get over the Warwick win

That is a massive known unknown

Because of that adding safety



Selection

£6.00 Win Bet MY SILVER LIGHTNING 6/1

£4.00 Place Bet IRON BRIDGE 11/8-6/4










Wincanton 3.42

7/2 Pentire Head, 4/1 Stratton Oakmont, 5/1 Chatshow Tv
5/1 Ede'Iffs Rock, 6/1 Pride Rock, 8/1 The Bold Thady
8/1 Ticking Tom Bomb, 12/1 Johnny B, 25/1 Rivers Corner
40/1 Known.

Novice Handicap Hurdle 3m

Similar races show

Horses with long absences
Do not have a great record

Happy to oppose these
With significant absences

THE BOLD THADY
KNOWN
PRIDE ROCK


TICKING TOM BOMB is unsafe
Coming from a 2 mile hurdle race

JOHNNY B is a 10 year old
Pulling up in a chase last time
Clearly isn't an orthodox profile

EDE'IFFS ROCK is fit and well
But a small horse on heavy ground

CHATSHOW TV is a 6yo

Just 3 career runs
Has to carry 12st weight
Thats a lot to take on

Go back to 1998
January to March
Novice Handicap Hurdles
Run over 2m 6f or more
Any class of race
Horses with under 4 runs
Coming from 2m 7f or shorter
Carrying 11st 9lbs or more
Have a 0-27 record in them
CHATSHOW TV fails this
TICKING TOM BOMB does

STRATTON OAKMOUNT an 8yo
Should go well with experience

PENTIRE HEAD shortlistable
Partly from the strongest stable
But this is a big jump in trip
From beaten in a maiden hurdle
My angles on profile predict a place

RIVER CORNER is bottomweight
Has low figures after 6 hurdles
But he has had some excuses
He went off too fast last time out
Been messed about in distance too
Featherweight and a claimer on top
He could be capable of a big shock
 
Quite like this staking


Selection

£6.00 Win Bet RIVER CORNER 14/1-16/1

£2.00 Win Bet STRATTON OAKMOUNT 4/1-7/2

£2.00 Win Bet PENTIRE HEAD 7/2-4/1





Haydock 3.50

2/1 Cuthbert Dibble, 4/1 Punta Del Este
6/1 Yes Day, 13/2 Lord Snootie, 15/2 Ilovethenightlife
101 J'Ai Froid, 12/1 Castle Rushen, 14/1 Our Sam
25/1 Foillan, 28/1 Schalke.

Handicap Hurdle 3m

Horses rated 0-133

One or two of these
Have profiles that worry me

PUNTA DEL ESTE is a 5yo
Not sure I'd want a younger horse
Not at this track as this suggests

Go back to 2009
January
Haydock handicaps
Run over 3m or more
Horses aged 5
Have 0-42 record in them
PUNTA DEL ESTE fails this

CUTHBERT DIBBLE is a 6yo

He has 12st weight
Having 1 run in 314 days
He looks potentially underraced
Might even be on the bounce too
And he is going up over half a mile

Go back to 2006
January to September
Handicap hurdles
Run over 3m or more
With more than 4 runners
In Class 2 or higher grade
Horses of any age
Under 28 career races
Just 1 run in several months
Running within 28 days
Carrying 11st 2lbs or more
Return a 0-27 record in them
CUTHBERT DIBBLE fails this

J'AI FROID won last time
But he is an exposed 11 year old
Maybe asking a lot to follow up
 
CASTLE RUSHEN is a 9yo
Rejected with 296 days break
None of the outsiders appeal
 
OUR SAM  could go well
But he is pretty exposed now
Just 1 run in the last 126 days
Ridden by a 10lbs claimer too

ILOVETHENIGHTLIFE is a mare
Big weight but she is not a negative
Would happily have her shortlisted
But misses out on the best profile
 
Ideal profile
 
Males Horses aged 6-7-8
Under 11st 9lbs
Over 3 hurdle runs
Under 11 lifetime runs
Not coming from a chase
If coming from a hurdle
Must be over 2m 4f or more  
You get a 12-50 record

Winning in these years

2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2012
2014 2017 2018 2020 2021 2022

Two horses qualify
 
LORD SNOOTIE 8/1-15/2

YES DAY 11/2-6/1

Not confident

So aiming for some safety

Selection
 
£6.00 Win Bet YES DAY 11/2-6/1

£4.00 Place Bet LORD SNOOTIE 13/8-7/4






 
 
Haydock 4.25

 3/1 Isaac Des Obeaux, 9/2 Mt Fugi Park
11/2 Now Is The Hour, 13/2 Great Pepper
7/1 Latenightpass, 9/1 Alcedo, 9/1 Inox Allen
10/1 Bowenspark, 25/1 Don't Rightly Know
25/1 Haiti Couleurs.
 
Prestige Novices' Hurdle

Graded Novice 3m

ISAAC DES OBEAUX a 6yo
He sets the standard so far
Having had 7 runs 4 over hurdles

If you go back to 2014
Horses with under 4 lifetime runs
Have a 0-21 record in this race
Not a strong stat but on heavy
See no reason to risk those types
The following horses all fail this

MT FUGI PARK
INOX ALLEN
HAITI COULEURS
GREAT PEPPER

LATENIGHTPASS is an enigma

He is 11 years old
Never ran in a hurdle before
Tries to win a Graded race
On hurdles debut off 64 days
Talented and may have the ability
But surely on the risky side here
Having a Grand National prep too

NOW IS THE HOUR is a 7yo
Took 4 runs to win a maiden hurdle

Two possible saver bets

BOWENSPARK 10/1
ALCEDO 16/1-18/1

But going each way

Reluctantly at 3/1

But felt it was the right bet


Selection

ISAAC DES OBEAUX 3/1

Each Way

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