Mathematician 2839
Saturday January 27th
9 Previews
1 Account Bet
The final Saturday message in January
Last Saturday was a complete meltdown
We were going for a hat trick of winners
The previous 2 Saturday bets both won
But the message collapsed and flopped
So lets see what this Saturday will bring
My Main bet's in a tough handicap hurdle
So be realistic about our chances today
There is going to be a Sunday message
We may have just 2 National Hunt cards
Account Bet
Doncaster 1.55
£4 Each Way SLANELOUGH 11/2
£2 Saver Bet MILES TO MILAN 4/1
6/1 Stan James
11/2 Ladbrokes Corals Boyles Bet365
11/2 William Hills Chandler Independants
Message Bets
Doncaster 1.55
£4 Each Way SLANELOUGH 11/2
£2 Saver Bet MILES TO MILAN 4/1
Kempton 5.45 - NATIVE ARROW 11/8
Kempton 6.45 - PULSATING 5/2
Each Way Double
Todays Message
9 Previews
Several are in difficult races
This is not likely to be a message
That will have a high strike rate
I think 4 races stand out
Doncaster 1.55
Cheltenham 3.00
Kempton 5.45
Kempton 6.45
The 3pm at Cheltenham
Has a 25/1 selection and savers
That is Aye Aye Charlie at 25/1
It's not good enough to stake
Wanted to mention it at the price
I like the 5.45 and 6.45 at Kempton
In the end I decided to combine them
And go with this each way double
Kempton 5.45 - NATIVE ARROW 11/8
Kempton 6.45 - PULSATING 5/2
Each Way Double
That is one of my message bets
The other one is on the account
Doncaster 1.55
£4 Each Way SLANELOUGH 11/2
£2 Saver Bet MILES TO MILAN 4/1
Unusually bet for me
In a Handicap hurdle
I'd have liked the extra place here
But we only have 3 unfortunately
Not the safest bet in the message
But a good value logical selection
Friday's Review
An interesting Friday message
Not too displeased with results
Could have been much better
If NIGG BAY hadn't finished 4th
Two highlighted bets went P L
Overall it finished P L W P P L
CARP KID lost but a saver won
AMBIENT could only finish 2nd
NIMITZ was an excellent winner
Wasn't too sure what to expect
That's why I didn't bet go e/way
His absence stopped that idea
But felt he had the class edge
SILVER PENNY was interesting
Close to staking on the account
Didn't like the smell of the race
These are only Class 7 horses
Made no difference in the end
I said the winner was the fittest
Just dislike betting small horses
That does save you losing bets
Occasionally it costs us a winner
Didn't lose any money in the race
So happy enough with yesterday
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
CHELTENHAM 12.40
1/6 Apple's Shakira, 7/1 Look My Way,
9/1 Elixir De Nutz, 25/1 Erick Le Rouge,
50/1 Broughtons Admiral, 100/1 Ulysses.
Graded hurdle for 4 year olds
APPLES SHAKIRA is long odds on
No interest in betting or opposing him
What interests me
Is the battle between the dangers
There are novelty markets available
Place bets or Without the favourite
LOOK MY WAY has 15 runs 2 over hurdles
ELIXIR DE NUTZ has 1 run 0 over hurdles
I have to go with experience here
Past winners had the following runs
6 2 2 4 21 14 14 10 10 5 11 8 5 2
Every winner had at least 2 runs
ELIXIR DE NUTZ only has 1 run
LOOK MY WAY may have an advantage
He has a Racing Post rating of 125
That and his experience swing it
Prediction/Selection
Look My Way to beat Elixir De Nutz
Bet as a match bet or a Place bet
LOOK MY WAY
Place Bet 5/4-11/8
DONCASTER 12.55
5/1 Miles To Milan, 11/2 Slanelough, 7/1 Copper West,
7/1 Scrafton, 8/1 Amadeus Rox, 10/1 Bandsman, Durbanville,
12/1 Astaroland, Ouro Branco, Princess Tara, Saint Cajetan,
14/1 Sommervieu, 20/1 Master Vintage, 33/1 Ruaraidh Hugh.
2m 3f Handicap hurdle
The fear in these races
Missing something that can't be seen
You can look at basic principles
But individual characteristics can get lost
I would have opposed these horses
AMADEUS ROX as a 4yo with an absence
He is far from certain to sty this far
DURBANVILLE inexperienced down 6f in trip
COPPER WEST with just 2 hurdle runs
SCRAFTON just an unpersuasive preparation
PRINCESS TARA - Mare from a chase
MILES TO MILAN is favourite
I was expecting him to be a negative
With such a long absence and topweight
His profile is not as bad as I expected
It is good enough to save
If we look at Racing Post Ratings
Last Time Out Hurdle ratings this season
SLANELOUGH comes here with 123 123 ratings
His opponents achieved the following numbers
0 90 110 106 86 98 79 97 96
He has a pretty good edge
Several though didn't have recent hurdle runs
But I don't see a better option after a short study
He has a lot of weight with 12st
But he has a recent run
And is fitter than a lot of these
Recent winners had 7 10 7 6 8 career runs
Recent winners had 6 8 4 6 3 hurdle runs
SLANELOUGH is a good enough fit
He has 9 runs all over hurdles
Lightly raced enough to offer improvement
But not as inexperienced as some others
The stables most recent runners
Who started under 20/1
Finished 2 W 2 2 W
Selection
£4 Each Way SLANELOUGH 11/2
£2 Saver Bet MILES TO MILAN 4/1
LINGFIELD 1.25
11/4 Aquarium, Trade Talks,
4/1 Make Magic, 5/1 Minute Mile,
11/2 Unveiling, 12/1 Heaven Up Here,
20/1 Looking For Carl, 50/1 Pastoral Dreams,
100/1 Rum Ration.
3yo Novice over a Mile
Stamina is the issue here
Not least with the debutants
MAKE MUSIC didn't convince me
He will do well to stay this far
TRADE TALKS is unraced
Ryan Moore booked
He may well be the most likely winner
The stable had an unraced winner yesterday
But that horse cost 1.4 Million Euros
TRADE TALK cost just 10 Grand
So I am going with experience here
UNVEILING has to prove stamina
She wasn't an expensive horse
AQUARIUM just gets the verdict
But more appeal in an each way double
Selection
AQUARIUM
Ideally I'd like 5/2 each way
That may or may not be possible
An each way double is a fair option
Or a win bet if you prefer that route
But for a final selection it's a split stake
£5 Win Bet AQUARIUM 9/4
£5 Place Bet UNVEILING 11/10
CHELTENHAM 1.50
5/1 Coo Star Sivola, 13/2 Ballyhill, Frodon,
7/1 King's Odyssey, 8/1 O O Seven, Shantou Flyer,
12/1 Drumlee Sunset, 14/1 Arctic Gold, Pressurize,
16/1 Bally Longford, Dream Bolt, Ultragold,
20/1 Casse Tete, Potters Legend.
Graded Handicap Chase around 2m 5f
I'd avoid the most exposed horses
Past winners had the following chase runs
7 15 10 23 12 9 3 21 11 8
There were 2 winners with 20 + Chase runs
Both won in smaller field renewals
ULTRAGOLD has 29 chase runs
SHANTOU FLYER has 21 chase runs
Both are more exposed than is ideal
If you look at recent winners of this race
They had 5 2 2 3 3 4 3 4 4 3 runs that season
I'd avoid horses with 1 run this season
CASSE TETE fails this angle
PRESSURIZE fails it as well
DRUMLEE SUNSET also has 1 run
Look at the age of past winners
They were aged 8 8 7 11 7 7 8 10 9 8
Horses aged 6 have struggled
Since 2006
Cheltenham Handicap Chases
Any distance
Any Class
22 of these races in January
Horses aged 6 have a 0-22 record
FRODON is 6 and has 11st 9lbs
January February March
Cheltenham Handicap Chases
Any distance - Any Class
Show horses aged 6
Carrying more than 11st
Have a 0-53 record in these months
FRODON has too much weight aged 6
POTTERS LEGEND pulled up last time
Not the profile to risk in Graded Class
DREAM BOLT has 16 Chase runs
What bothers me about him
He has no form in Listed/Graded races
He has had enough time to progress to that
I don't want a horse with as many as 16 runs
Who's not been within 2 grades of this race
BALLY LONGFORD is 10 years old
Not keen on that 64 day absence
Handicap Chases at Cheltenham
Listed or Graded races since 2007
October to Febuary
Any distance
Horses aged 9 or more
Absent more than 51 days
Have a 0-68 record in these months
He's also up 3 grades in class today
ARCTIC GOLD has 6 Chase starts
He has yet to win any of those
He has only finished in 4 of them
He was beaten in a Novice Handicap last time
And one that was 3 Grades lower than this
O O SEVEN has a tough weight
He's never won off his current rating
He has never won in this class either
Just don't see him defying a big weight
Shortlist
COO STAR SIVOLA is only a 6yo
I was planning to oppose him
But I have come round to him more
Mainly for his track form
He has placed at 2 Cheltenham Festivals
His Racing Post Chase Ratings
Comfortably better his handicap mark
Moving him from negative to a saver
BALLYHILL won at Cheltenham last time
Still unexposed and open to improvement
I don't have major issues with his profile
Having 5 Chase starts is a bit inexperienced
Past winners had the following chase runs
7 15 10 23 12 9 3 21 11 8
But in form and well treated he is shortlistable
KINGS ODYSSEY is a 9 year old
He has 9 Chase starts
Won the Novice race on this card in 2016
On Racing Post Ratings that was a career best
So his best ever run came over course/distance
I made him a negative last time at Cheltenham
He failed 0-31 and 0-22 statistics that day
Essentially underraced and up in distance
Finishing 3rd was a creditable effort
Selection
£6.00 Win Bet KINGS ODYSSEY 8/1
£2.50 Win Bet COO STAR SIVOLA 7/1
£1.50 Win Bet BALLYHILL 6/1
LINGFIELD 2.00
4/1 Surrey Hope, 9/2 Towerlands Park,
7/1 Alfred Hutchinson, 7/1 Lady Perignon,
8/1 Chester Street, Glory Awaits, 9/1 Captain Cat,
10/1 Chevallier, 12/1 Contrast, 16/1 Franco's Secret,
25/1 Man Of Harlech, 33/1 Sea Fox.
This is a Mile Handicap
There are 93 similar races in January
All 93 winners ran within 153 days
Those that did not were 0-39
CONTRAST absent 252 days fails that
FRANCO'S SECRET has 329 days off
That is a very long break for a 7yo
Handicaps in January over every distance
Run in Class 4 or higher
Show horses aged 5 or more
Absent more than 259 days are 0-41
FRANCO'S SECRET has this 0-41 profile
Several others have questionable fitness
GLORY AWAITS is an 8yo absent 140 days
SEA FOX has 77 days off the track
CAPTAIN CAT is now a 9 year old
He has raced just once in 119 days
MAN OF HARLECH is a 7yo
He has raced just once since last June
TOWERLANDS PARK is unorthodox
He is very lightly raced for a 5yo
Horses aged 5 with under 11 runs
Absent more than 15 days were 0-27
He fails that 0-27 angle with 8 runs
Shortlist
LADY PERIGNON is an older mare
Not the safest of profiles because of it
But her last run was a career best
CHESTER STEET ran 7 days ago
What worries me is 1 run in 105 days
There is a risk he could bounce here
Could win but there is that risk
SURREY HOPE looks short of runs
He is a 4yo with 1 run in 164 days
Thats asking a lot with topweight
But he only has 6 runs
And being unexposed levels that out
His last time out Racing Post Rating
Is comfortably the best in the race
And gets him shortlisted as a saver
CHEVALIER has form that can win
My worry is his last 2 runs
Looks like he has gone off the boil
I think he bounced 2 races ago
He may have hated Southwell last time
Or had a quiet race to prepare for this
On the grounds he won this last year
Just a concern what form he's in
But with excuses you can fancy him
ALFRED HUTCHINSON is a 10yo
Although he was last of 7 last time
I don't think you can rule him out
He is fit and running decent numbers
Selection
Small Stakes
£4 Win Bet ALFRED HUTCHINSON 11/1
£4 Win Bet CHEVALIER 12/1
£3 Win Bet SURREY HOPE 9/4
CHELTENHAM 2.25
6/4 Bristol De Mai, 9/2 The Last Samuri,
5/1 American, 11/2 Definitly Red, 7/1 Tea For Two,
20/1 Singlefarmpayment, 25/1 Theatre Guide,
33/1 Perfect Candidate.
Grade 2 Chase over 3m 1f
Not sure what to expect here
BRISTOL DE MAI won easily at Haydock
I said there was a huge overreaction
No surprise he flopped in the King George
This is his attempt to bounce back
BRISTOL DE MAI is a 7 year old
Only 2 of the last 26 winners were aged 7
To be fair not that many have tried
But he is the youngest horse here
He does have a penalty as well
He comes here after a poor last run
And he is far more exposed
Than any of the few his age that won
So I don't want to risk him at short odds
AMERCIAN doesn't persuade me
He has only had 4 Chase runs
Past winners had these Chase runs
17 14 20 11 14 14 8 26 8 12 15 18 9 8 7 16
The last 16 winners had at least 8 runs
He has half that which worries me
And Just 1 run this season is a concern
THEATRE GUIDE also has just 1 run
I didn't like him or the other outsiders
It has to be an each way bet
DEFINITLY RED is an option
TEA FOR TWO is an option
Both have had 1 run 1 fall over these fences
THE LAST SAMURI appealed more
But it was essentially a guess between 3
Selection
Small Stakes
THE LAST SAMURI 9/2
Each Way
CHELTENHAM 3.00
5/2 Santini, 3/1 Mulcahys Hill, 9/2 Tikkanbar,
11/2 Black Op, 7/1 Pacific De Baune,
8/1 Slate House, 16/1 De Rasher Counter,
20/1 Aye Aye Charlie, 50/1 Fairmount.
Graded Novice Hurdle over 2m 4f
SANTINI has raced just once before
That was over hurdles 57 days ago
That just looks rather inexperienced
PACIFIC DE BAUNE has the same problem
Just 1 run before over hurdles
He is also the youngest horse in the race
Previous winners of this race
Had the following lifetime starts
Thats over any code
7 7 5 5 7 8 4 4 5 10 7
The last 11 winners had 4 + career runs
SANTINI is rejected with 1 run
PACIFIC DE BAUNE is rejected with 1 run
Previous winners of this race
Had the following Hurdle runs
5 3 3 2 5 4 2 4 3 1 3 5 5
Only 1 past winner won with just 1 hurdle run
That was a 5yo and he was a Group horse on the flat
FAIRMOUNT is out of his depth
DE RASHER COUNTER rated too low
BLACK OP has 4 runs 2 over hurdles
That is a bit too inexperienced for me
Bobs Worth won in 2011 with this profile
So I can not make him a statistical negative
Bobs Worth won a Cheltenham Gold Cup
And a Hennessy and had better numbers
BLACK OP has plenty to prove with 4 runs
Given no winners came from a maiden hurdle
And given his sire I would look elsewhere
SLATE HOUSE only has 3 lifetime starts
The last 11 winners had 4 + career runs
With a penalty I have my doubts
But he does have 3 hurdle runs
That is more than any of the others
TIKKANBAR has 6 runs 2 over hurdles
Still not the best of hurdlers
But a solid chance and respected
AYE AYE CHARLIE is a lively outsider
I felt he needed the run last time
He was 4th that day to TIKKANBAR
He was not beaten that far in the end
He was only a 4/1 chance to win that day
And he has a weight pull as well
He is far too big at 25/1 on this ground
MULCAHYS HILL has 5 runs 2 over hurdles
He was 2nd in the Challow Hurdle
He just coped better than most that day
It was a Racing Post Hurdle rating of 147
Easily the best hurdle performance in the race
The next bet number is Slate Houses 139
MULCAHYS HILL is the numbers horse
He comes from an excellent trial race
The 2007 2009 2010 winners were similar
Same age and ran well in the same trial
The downside with him - was he flattered
He was not particularly fancied at Newbury
May well have got the run of the race
Selection
Option 1
£3 Each Way AYE AYE CHARLIE 25/1
£2 Win Bet MULCAHYS HILL 4/1
£1 Win Bet SLATE HOUSE 8/1
£1 Win Bet TIKKANBAR 7/1
Option 2
£3.50 Each Way AYE AYE CHARLIE 25/1
£2 Win Bet MULCAHYS HILL 4/1
£1 Win Bet SLATE HOUSE 8/1
Option 2 is my choice
As it is just a bit less complicated
KEMPTON 5.45
Evs Native Arrow, 4/1 Shakour,
5/1 Pilgrim Soul, 12/1 Genuinely Crowded,
14/1 Lucky Lover Boy, 14/1 Mercer's Troop,
20/1 Victoria Drummond, 33/1 The Accountant.
12f Maiden
If you look at the betting
SHAKOUR 100/30 is rather obvious
As an each way bet to nothing
I don't want to go that way
First of all he may not stay 12f
His sire is Declaration of War
He has not yet bred a 10f winner
Two runs ago
SHAKOUR was 3rd at Chelmsford at 7/2
NATIVE ARROW was odds on favourite that day
Which may be significant as He was unraced
NATIVE ARROW could only finish 4th
He was half a length behind SHAKOUR
NATIVE ARROW put up a horrible show
He was Green
Ran in snatches
Looked a bit mulish
Never looked like winning
Part of me thinks don't touch with a bargepole
But the last furlong of that race
The Penny dropped and he looked better
He was after all unraced
Taking on experienced horses
And he was only half a length behind
I came away thinking that whilst risky
And I don't like the though of tipping him
Only to watch another similar performance
But I just felt that if they met again
NATIVE ARROW would beat Shakour
And going over this distance must help him
On Breeding he is far more likely to need it
I am taking the view
The horrible debut he appeared to run
Is why NATIVE RIVER is 6/4 and not 4/6
PILGRIM SOUL has a chance
She will stay but has work to do
Her numbers so far just average
But I did like her on video last time
She could be a decent saver here
Given these factors
SHAKOUR may not stay 12f
GENUINELY CROWDED is resistable
Selection
Option 1
£8 Win Bet NATIVE ARROW 11/8
£2 Win Bet PILGRIM SOUL 4/1
Option 2
Kempton 5.45 - NATIVE ARROW 11/8
Kempton 6.45 - PULSATING 5/2
I have chosen Option 2
KEMPTON 6.45
7/2 Pulsating, 9/2 Higher Court, 5/1 Desert Fox,
7/1 Anonymous John, Rapid Ranger, 10/1 Inlawed,
12/1 Maazel, 14/1 Big Lachie, Major Valentine,
16/1 Red Tycoon, 20/1 Kinglami, 100/1 Helis.
6f Handicap
PULSATING's last 4 runs are W W 3 3
Won 2 on the trot like a knife though butter
Failed in her hat trick bid at Wolverhampton
She had excuses that day
Was never in a good enough position
She stayed on very well at the end
Last time was disappointing to be fair
But a tiny field with no pace hurt her
What I like about her
PULSATING has 4 runs in 2018
Thats 2 more than every other horse
Take HIGHER COURT her market danger
He is a 10 year old absent 59 days
January and Febuary
Handicaps
Class 5 and higher
Any Distance
Show horses aged 10 +
Absent more than 50 days
Have a 0-92 record
Some did win in Class 6-7 races
But in this class that is a problem
HIGHER COURT may lack fitness
MAJOR VALENTINE has 126 days off
KINGLAMI too old for his absence
MAAZEL didn't make any appeal
He has Just been sold very cheaply
BIG LACHIE has raced once in 9 weeks
INLAWED has 68 days off the track
ANONYMOUS JOHN will do well to follow up
RAPID RANGER has a chance
DESERT FOX is respected
Could be a saver option with a recent win
But PULSATING could bounce back here
Selection
PULSATING 5/2
Win Bet
****************************************************
****************************************************
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Best Wishes
Guy Ward
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk