Saturday July 27th

Account Bet
   

York 2.05

NIGHT ON EARTH 11/1-10/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5




Final Deliberations       

Standard Saturday shoot out
Happy enough with the result
Decent chances at good prices
Just need a bit of good fortune
 
Big priced account bet today

Hardest race of the message

Most previews similar strengths

There are safer and easier races

But this horse is too overpriced



York 2.05

6/1 Woobay, 8/1 Strong Johnson, 9/1 Whisky McGonagall
10/1 Birkenhead, 10/1 Golden Rainbow, 10/1 Soul Seeker
11/1 Night On Earth, 11/1 Zarzyni, 12/1 Ghathanfar
12/1 Princess Karine, 14/1 Reigning Profit, 16/1 Bayraat
16/1 Faro De San Juan, Leodis Dream, 16/1 Never Dark
25/1 Another Baar, Fortunate Star, 33/1 Glendown.
 
5f Handicap

Professional Jump Jockeys

Over the years
This race has changed
They messed about with it
Run at different times of month

Starting with the draw

The high draws worry me
As this combination stat shows

Go back to 2006
York 5f races
Any kind of race
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses aged 4 or older
Drawn in stall 14 or higher
Absent more than 22 days
Have a winless 0-120 record
The following fail this angle

WHISKY MCGONAGALL
BIRKENHEAD
STRONG JOHNSON

Go back to 1998
York 5f races
Horses aged 7 or more
Drawn 13 or higher
Absent more than 7 days
Have a 1-132 record in then
In Class 2 or higher grade
All 78 that tried were beaten 
The following horses all fail

BIRKENHEAD
STRONG JOHNSON
NEVER DARK
LEODIS DREAM

Rejecting the following

ANOTHER BAAR from a 7f race
REIGNING PROFIT drawn 19/19
GLENDOWN drawn in stall 1
FORTUNATE STAR scoring badly
FARO DE SAN JUAN from 6f
May just find this a bit too sharp

GOLDEN RAINBOW ran 5 days ago
He was unplaced in a class 6 handicap
This is a much harder race than that
Not a negative but prefer other profiles
BAYRAAT not first choice as an 8yo
Having raced just twice in 9 months

SOUL SEEKER

Twice won this race before
The 3rd time he has ran in it
He was badly drawn in stall 19

Well drawn today
He could easily take this race
But older and not in peak form
Might win but I prefer others

All 6 past winners

Ran within 3 weeks
Under 8 years old
Had 2 or more runs
In the previous 26 days
Came from 5f last time
Lost by under 10 lengths
ZARZYNI is not quite a match

His 30 day break isn't scary
But several have races sooner
He was beaten 11 lengths last time
Plenty of weight to carry as well

Others with chances

WOODAY
PRINCESS KARUNE
GHANTHANFAR

This is a class 4 handicap

Horses rated 0-80


NIGHT ON EARTH
 
Just 3 races ago
He was part of my staking
In the Epsom Dash in June

Thats a very fast class 2

Fancied him there off 86
Now he turns up rated 79
In a two grades lower race

He'd had some bad draws
In some runs before Epsom

Last time out at Chelmsford
I think he and two others
All went off a bit too quickly
And the pace collapsed there

On his day he is very fast

On his day better than these

Front running can help here

Clearly handicapped to win
 
Selection

NIGHT ON EARTH 11/1-10/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5