Mathematician 2142
Saturday October 17th
0 Account Bet
0 Selection
1 Profile & Preview bet
0 Negative
16 Races Discussed
Last week Saturday's message was a car crash
but it was a Rolls Royce message the previous
week so lets hope for a good one. I have had a
clear run at the message without any problems.
The message covers a lot more than normal as
I had an extra days preparation. This can result
in a significantly longer message than usual so
we need to be careful. Not all races have been
finished. Judge the message by the 4 bets that
are at the top of the message and not the rest.
Today's Bet
Cork 3.35
BRENDAN BRACKAN 7/2
Each Way (2 Places 1/4 the odds)
This is an each way bet in a 5 runner race
We only have 2 places for the each way bet
We get 1/4 the odds though
I think he might win and I'm tempted each way
All his rivals have flaws to overcome
Quite an unusual bet for us really
The priority is getting the October account
into a position where we can't possibly lose
and we only a couple of winners short now
from doing that. I like this bet as there are
so few dangers compared to other options.
If there is any Non Runner which would be
horrible then he will go down as a win bet.
BRENDAN BRACKAN
7/2 Bet365 Spbet PPower Betfair
100/30 Ladbrokes Corals Skybet VC + Others
T o d a y ' s M e s s a g e
I'm prioritising the Flat cards today.
Still too early to be taking National Hunt seriously
Today's jumping cards look low grade anyway
Ascot is clearly a mouthwatering card
We do not have any significant edge here
These races used to be run in September before the Arc
Now they are run a few weeks later in October afterwards
Statistically that is intolerable
Therefore treat the Ascot work as very speculative
Not many races today could have been official bets
These were the races that I considered potential bets
Catterick 2.15 - WOWCHA 5/1 Each Way
Catterick 3.25
ARCTIC FEELING 7/1 Each Way
CONFESSIONAL 5/1 Saver
Cork 3.35 - BRENDAN BRACKAN 7/2 Each Way (2 Places)
Cork 5.25 - ANGEL BAY 9/2 Each Way
Recap of Non Staked Sports Bets
Just a memory jog of 2 non staked bets running today
Last Sunday I suggested betting Everton at 5/2 or 9/4
That was in today's home game against Manchester United
There is some 9/4 left and I have had a small interest bet.
It is Rugby World Cup Quarter Final weekend
I suggested a New Zealand v Australia final at 11/4
With a South Africa v Australia Saver suggested at 4/1
This resumes today and tomorrow so not long left now
D a i l y N e g a t i v e s
No Negative Today
Results of Negatives
20 correct bets from 24
T h u r s d a y s S u m m a r y
With no message yesterday it just leaves the
message on Thursday. We had a staked P&P
bet and that was a winner. It was split 2 ways.
We had a win bet on Jan Steen who won the
race and we also backed Donttouchthechips
each way at 11/1 and placed which was ideal.
I was hoping we were going to get an exacta
as some of you like combining positives but
I am happy as both horses produced a profit.
Much depends on what prices we achieved.
At advised prices it was a 2/1 winner but the
Starting price returns were only a 5/6 winner
because both horses were strongly backed
into short prices. Still it extends our October
profit lead which is after all what we planned.
P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s
A s c o t 12.45
9/2 Agent Murphy, 11/2 Flying Officer
11/2 Forgotten Rules 6/1 Clever Cookie, 7/1 Pallasator
9/1 Litigant, 9/1 Wicklow Brave 14/1 Clondaw Warrior
16/1 Amour De Nuit, 16/1 Simenon 16/1 Suegioo
20/1 Hidden Gold, 25/1 Gale Force.
This Group 3 race over 2 miles
My Breeding Stats demand the following
Sires who bred 2m winners
In Group Class races on Good or softer
Only the following horses pass this test
AGENT MURPHY- FORGOTTEN RULES
FLYING OFFICER - GALE FORCE
Go back 24 years and no filly has won this race
GALE FORCE and HIDDEN GOLD fail this
I am against horses from the Prix Du Cadran
A gruelling 2m 4f race just 13 days ago may be too much
SIMENON and CLONDAW WARRIOR fail this
AMOUR DE NUIT has a lot to do at the weights
He's never been beyond a Class 3 race yet
I don't think he will have enough class
SUEGIOO may find Group 2 Class against him
WICKLOW BRAVE is vulnerable on my breeding stats
If you look at horses sired by Beat Hollow over 1m 7f +
When running in Class 2 or higher they are 0-28
LITIGANT has raced just once in 18 Months
That puts me off him but plenty of money for him
Horses drawn in the highest stalls have struggled
I think a sharp early turn disadvantages them
CLEVER COOKIE is not for me drawn widest in Stall 1
Shortlist
PALLASATOR
FLYING OFFICER
AGENT MURPHY
FORGOTTEN RULES
PALLASATOR can't be ruled out
Asing a lot after winning the Doncaster Cup though
FORGOTTEN RULES won this last year
No surprise if he is right there at the finish
AGENT MURPHY - Every chance. I hate the stable
Would have been my choice trained by anyone else
Horses do win this when lightly raced this year
FLYING OFFICER may only have 2 runs
They were at least wins and both came recently
Selection
Staked to £10
£6.00 Win FLYING OFFICER 7/1
£2.00 Win AGENT MURPHY 6/1
£2.00 Win FORGOTTEN RULES 6/1
A s c o t 1.20
2/1 Muhaarar, 5/1 Twilight Son, 8/1 The Tin Man
10/1 Strath Burn, 16/1 Adaay, Danzeno, 16/1 Gordon Lord Byron
16/1 Maarek, 20/1 Eastern Impact, 20/1 Lightning Moon
25/1 Jack Dexter, 33/1 Emperor Max, 33/1 Great Minds
33/1 Heaven´s Guest, 40/1 Aeolus, 40/1 Coulsty
40/1 Interception, 50/1 Naadirr, 66/1 Gathering Power
66/1 Lancelot Du Lac.
This is a Group 1 race over 6f.
Only 4 of these races in October
This is the profile of the 4 winners
Males aged 4-5-6
Running within 6 weeks
At least 3 runs in the last 3 months
14 or more career starts
Coming from a Pattern race
Beaten under 3 lengths last time out
Only 2 horses have this profile today
NAADIRR 50/1
EASTERN IMPACT 33/1
That puts the cat amongst the Pigeons
I want to oppose MUHAARAR at the price
He is a 3 year old absent 69 days
He is favourite but fails these Generic Statistics
Any Month of the year
Races over 5f and 6f
Group 1 and Group 2 Class
Horses aged 3
Absent more than 6 weeks
Horses aged 3 with this profile were 7-108
All 7 winners had under 8 career starts
Those with 9 or more runs were 0-44
MUHAARAR with 10 runs fails that
He's be the most exposed 3yo
To win a 5f 6f Group 1 or 2 race absent over 7 weeks
STRATH BURN only survives that stat by 1 day
He is 3 and absent 42 days with 9 runs
He is just one day from failing a generic statistic
He does survive it though so I can't discount him
He is from a sire yet to breed a Group 1-2 winner
ADAAY is also a 3yo absent 42 days
With 10 runs he is on the verge of failing the Generic stat
Being on the verge is not a fail though
I have to shortlist him because he passes that
There are 31 of these races September-November
I would avoid horses aged 7 or more (1-52)
GORDON LORD BYRON is rejected aged 7
MAAREK is rejected aged 8
EMPEROR MAX fails my breeding angles
TWILIGHT SON is very sexy and tempting
Stll 20 of 20 though would put me off
It can be done but it looks a disadvantage to me
Recent winners had the following runs that year
8 7 9 5 4 4 5 4 7 3 7 6 5 6 5 4 4
TWILIGHT SON only has 3 runs this year
Only 1 winner overcame that in recent history
That horse was a 5yo back in 2005
I looked at horses from handicaps
They were 3-49 in these 31 races
Those that raced within 6 weeks were 0-37
THE TIN MAN fails that and I can't risk him
Not when his sire's never bred a Group 1-2 winner yet
HEAVEN´S GUEST also fails the 0-37 handicap stat
JACK DEXTER also fails the 0-37 handicap stat
DANZENO comes from a 5f race
Not keen enough on him from a Class 3 race
His sire's never bred a Group 1-2 winner yet
He is his sire's best horse on Racing Post Ratings
If he runs to his best number it may not be enough
The last 5 winners had better Racing Post Ratings
LIGHTNING MOON is underraced this season
NAADIRR 50/1 has to be part of the staking plan
EASTERN IMPACT 33/1 Does as well despite stall 1
Selection
£1.00 Each Way NAADIRR 50/1
£1.50 Each Way EASTERN IMPACT 33/1
£2.50 Win STRATH BURN 8/1
£1.25 Each Way ADAAY 25/1
Complicated staking
I appreciate nobody will follow that. Neither will I
Just a paper exercise really
Just trying to get across some outsiders have chances
C a t t e r i c k 1.40
5/2 Indian Pursuit, 11/4 Dacoity, 9/2 Kingsley Klarion
9/2 Roundabout Time, 13/2 Flummoxed, 12/1 Reutlingen
20/1 Contendit, 40/1 Blagger.
This is a 2yo maiden just short of 6f
There are 3 no hopers and 5 with a chance
That said FLUMMOXED should not be winning
His sire's unraced horses over 6f or more are 1-148
Horrible prospect and he should be ignored
This is a track where experience counts
I'm opposing the unraced ROUNDABOUT TIME
Look at horses aged 2 sired by Zebedee
Racing over 6f or more on ground softer than good
They have a 7-84 record
Those that were unraced were 0-15
ROUNDABOUT TIME fails this so is rejected
Those with under 4 runs were only 1-44 anyway
Horses by Arcano are quite similar
They are 1-39 with under 4 runs over 6f on softer ground
KINGSLEY KLARION is sired by Arcano
He comes from 5f maiden with 1 recent run
His profile is very average but I can't rule him out
I have to go back to 2001 for a winner like him (Fangio's Quest)
Can't rule him out but not for me
He's a mountain to find on Racing Post Ratings in 11 days
This is a track where I'd rather have 2 + runs
Most winners of similar races here have that
Shortlist
DACOITY
INDIAN PURSUIT
INDIAN PURSUIT would be the obvious choice
Has 4 runs compared to 2 runs from Dacoity
Has better numbers as well
Whether 6f on soft ground suits or not I'm not sure
I have a nagging worry I can't shake about this
I backed him each way last time and Just not convinced
DACOITY could outstay him if he improves
His trainer says he is a bit hot headed
He could just be the better horse
There is a case for an each way burglary bet
At 9/4 though I shan't get tempted by that
Selection
DACOITY 9/4
C o r k 1.50
4/1 In Salutem, 9/2 Fast In The Wind, 5/1 Bubbly Bellini
5/1 Master Speaker, 11/2 Lily´s Prince, 13/2 An Saighdiur
10/1 St Brelades Bay, 12/1 Leading Actress.
This is a 6f handicap
For horses rated between 74 and 97
If you look at 6f handicaps at Cork in October
You really want a horse down in distance
I looked at this and every similar races in October
There is a weak record of horses coming from 5f races
LILY´S PRINCE is rejected from a 5f race
May not have the class to mix it with these in grade
ST BRELADES BAY - I don't want a 3yo up in trip
IN SALUTEM comes from 5f
If you look at horses aged 5 or more
That come from 5f without a run in the last 2 weeks
You find a modest 2-69 record
Those 2 winners were years ago
Since 2006 horses with this profile were 0-56
He is useful and fast but that 0-56 record puts me off
IN SALUTEM has only won off 78 before
Look at his record in handicaps rated 80 or more
10th 7th 10th 7th 10th 2nd 2nd 2nd 7th 3rd 3rd 3rd 5th 2nd 3rd
That is quite an unfair way of looking at him
But it illustrates me will need a career best
LEADING ACTRESS is a 3yo filly absent 142 days
I looked at 3yo fillies in all similar races
Those absent over 4 weeks were 0-61
LEADING ACTRESS has to be eliminated too
FAST IN THE WIND is a lightly raced 4 year old
Winning first time out as 2yo hurt him
It spoilt his handicap mark for a long time
He also had a stress fracture of the tibia
He has now worked his way down the handicap
He could easily win soon but not sure it will be today
His is not running big numbers at the moment
His last 3 Racing Post Ratings were 67 61 79
That leaves me cold in the context of this race
I ran his profile as a 4yo with roughly 12 runs
It was not good enough
His last run was only in a 0-75 handicap
He never met a horse rated higher than 75 last time
Today he faces several horses rated 90 +
I'd fancy him off top weight in a 0-75
But bottomweight in a 0-98 he isn't for me
AN SAIGHDIUR is an 8 year old
In all similar races horses aged 8 or more were 3-79
Those absent more than 15 days were 0-48
I needed a more recent run to be interested
BUBBLY BELLINI won this last year
Has a much stiffer mark today today 11lbs higher
Statistically he is older than ideal as an 8yo
I can live with that as he has a recent run
He has never won a handicap off this sort of mark before
He also has a 10lbs claimer who has never ridden him before
Those two factors put me off a bit
MASTER SPEAKER drops from 7f
I see that as a positive
Last years winner of this race came from the same race
I like his profile. One of the safer profiles for sure
Horses with his profile had a 4-16 record
My main concern is he is drawn 1
Look at races here with 7 + runners
Since 2013 horses drawn 1 were 0-22
Many of these were not fancied though
None of them strangely had a recent run either
There were 3 stall 1 winners in 2012 so I am overlooking that
Selection
MASTER SPEAKER 11/2
Each Way
C a t t e r i c k 2.15
11/4 Forest Lakes, 11/4 Sunnua, 7/2 Wowcha
9/2 Lady Canford, 8/1 Becky The Thatcher, 10/1 Fondie
14/1 Lilly Vega, 20/1 Arcane Dancer, 25/1 Fancify
25/1 Zubeida, 50/1 Boca Sham, 50/1 Compton Mews.
This is a 2yo maiden over 7f for fillies
There are 47 similar races in October
The money last night was for FOREST LAKES
She is unraced though and I don't like debutants here
I looked at her sire Iffraaj
His unraced 2 year olds over 7f or more are 9-102
On Good to soft or worse they are just 2-36
I can't really rule her out on that stat so I'll try this
Since 2007
Any Time of year
Unraced 2 year olds at Catterick
Good to soft or worse ground
There was a 4-97 record with these types
3 of the 4 winners were in 5f races
Those that ran over 6f or more were just 1-51
Those that ran over 7f or more were 0-20
Therefore no unraced 2yo has won here over 7f
When the ground was on the soft side since 2007
FOREST LAKES doesn't offer me enough
9 renewals of this race
Horses with 0-1 runs were 1-36
Horses with 2 + runs were 8-59
You clearly want 2 or more runs if possible
FONDIE is rejected with 1 run
LILLY VEGA is rejected with 1 run
WOWCHA is much harder to oppose with 1 run
For reasons given later I am making her a positive
BECKY THE THATCHER needs to recover from a poor run
SUNNUA's problem in my view is stamina
I am not using her high draw as a negative reason
I don't have a problem with high draws here
I don't think her stamina is cast iron over 7f on soft
Her profile is a little unsafe as well
There are 47 of these 7f fillies maidens in October
Horses from 6f races won 8 of these
7 of the 8 that did it had 1-2 runs
One winner did it with 4 runs
No winners came from 6f with more than 4 runs
SUNNUA has 6 runs doing this
She could win and her experience may help
But she isn't like a winner and has to prove she stays
Shortlist
WOWCHA
LADY CANFORD
LADY CANFORD has to be shortlisted
Despite a 61 day absence
Last years winner had 2 runs and 85 days off
That was also on soft ground
WOWCHA despite 1 run is very interesting
One of the reasons is her 150k purchase price
WOWCHA did a 64 Racing Post Rating on debut
That was acceptable as she would have needed that
Her trainer rarely has unraced 2yo's ready
She really caught the eye at Ayr last time
Selection
WOWCHA 9/2
Each Way
A s c o t 2.30
Evs Solow, 2/1 Gleneagles, 7/1 Kodi Bear
10/1 Territories, 16/1 Elm Park, 20/1 Integral
50/1 Belardo, 66/1 Top Notch Tonto
100/1 Gabrial.
The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes is dominated by
two top class horses. It would be unfair to make
this a two horse race. KODI BEAR deserves his
chance and there are reasons why he could be
a threat. Personally I don't think he will stay up
the hill. This mile on the Ascot straight course
rises 22 yards from start to finish. I wasn't that
sure he would stay at Goodwood and although
he did this is a stiffer test and he is not for me.
Not sure ELM PARK will be battle hardened in
against two Champions. TERRITORIES may be
in the same position just lightly raced recently
but he's a big price and would be a cheap saver.
I am not going to select GLENEAGLES
Mainly because of his 122 day absence
I looked at every Group 1 race in September-October
The longest absence winner was Rakti in 2003
He was 4 and won this race with a 122 day absence
The longest absent 3 year old was Leading Light
He won the St Leger with an 85 day break
GLENEAGLES is absent much longer than him
SOLOW has a shorter absence than Glenegals
He has more runs this season as well
I feel he has fewer weak spots in his profile
Selection
Staked to £10
£9.00 Win SOLOW 6/4
£1.00 Win TERRITORIES 10/1
C a t t e r i c k 2.50
13/8 English Summer, 4/1 Moshe, 11/2 Northside Prince
8/1 Monsea, 8/1 The Osteopath, 8/1 Ullswater, 10/1 Vivacissimo
20/1 Voice From Above.
I think ENGLISH SUMMER will win
Just has too many factors in his favour
Except the price as he is 8/11 and not 13/8 his paper price
That makes a preview a bit of a waste of time
Not a price I could consider betting him at now
I do think ENGLISH SUMMER will outclass these
A s c o t 3.05
5/4 Jack Hobbs, 4/1 Found, 6/1 Vadamos
10/1 The Corsican, 14/1 Racing History, 16/1 Fascinating Rock
20/1 Ribbons, 33/1 Sumbal, 40/1 Lightning Spear
40/1 Tullius, 50/1 Air Pilot, 66/1 Maverick Wave
66/1 Palace Prince.
The Champion Stakes looks top class
If you look at Racing Post Ratings
JACK HOBBS is the 2nd best 3yo in Europe
FOUND is the best 3yo filly in Europe
Lots of littlle frustrating things which undermine
the case for a solid bet. Like JACK HOBBS draw
which isn't ideal but not as bad as his trainer has
made out. Like how FOUND will recover from her
run in the Arc De Triomphe recently. Then we are
in the dark about VADAMOS who has never raced
in this country before. There are a lot of random
factors meaning I can only take the preview so far.
What I do like though is staking I use in this race
I think it is pretty safe and makes sense
Half Stakes on both bets
JACK HOBBS - Win Bet 11/8
FOUND - Place Bet 4/5
C a t t e r i c k 3.25
5/1 Adam´s Ale, 5/1 Union Rose, 13/2 Arctic Feeling
13/2 Confessional, 10/1 Appleberry 12/1 Fredricka
12/1 Kimberella, 12/1 Rural Celebration
16/1 Ballesteros, 16/1 Pearl Acclaim 20/1 Astrophysics
20/1 Captain Dunne
This is a 5f handicap
Catterick have had 10 of these October 5f handicaps
Horses aged 4 and 5 have won 9 of these 10 races
Horses aged 3 have a 0-30 record in them
I am against 3 year olds in this race
ASTROPHYSICS UNION ROSE - APPLEBERRY
CAPTAIN DUNNE is older than I want
PEARL ACCLAIM is absent far too long
BALLESTEROS wouldn't be first choice
Too many have a far more recent run which he prefers too
ADAM´S ALE won find stall 14 easy
He has just been put up 3lbs for losing
He has a career high mark on a track he is unproven on
He is still only 0-21 above Class 5 so he is rejected
KIMBERELLA is respected with a recent run
Not for me though. May just be off the boil
He is 0-16 in August onwards each year
May have had enough for the year and no track form
RURAL CELEBRATION was a borderline case
I decided not to shortlist her as a 4yo filly
This sort of class has found her out in the past
I felt the same about FREDRICKA
She is a 4yo filly stepping up 2 grades in class
Never won beyond Class 5 and this is a Class 2 race
Shortlist
CONFESSIONAL is 8 and comes from 5f
He has been 5th and 2nd in the two past renewals
ARCTIC FEELING was 4th last year in this from a bad draw
He a bit more in his favour this year and better drawn
He will be running on very late and should place
Racing Post Ratings
5f races
Good to soft or worse
The previous 13 months
99 Union Rose
98 Confessional
96 Confessional
94 Confessional
93 Confessional - Waseem Faris - Rural Celebration
91 Pearl Acclaim
90 Adam's Ale - Ballesteros
89 Appleberry
88 Arctic Feeling - Captain Dunne
87 Rural Celebration
86 Kimberella
UNION ROSE comes out top
I don't want a 3yo though on this course
Take him away and CONFESSIONAL is dominant
He is 8 though and doesn't have a very recent run
So many others do and that is why he is saver
Selection
ARCTIC FEELING 7/1 Each Way
CONFESSIONAL 5/1 Saver
C o r k 3.35
5/2 Akira, 3/1 Brendan Brackan
3/1 Sruthan, 7/2 Flight Risk
7/1 Corail.
This is a Listed race around a Mile
Complicated race for a number of reasons
Not least the small field
And BRENDAN BRACKAN unseating rider last time
There are 45 similar races in October
FLIGHT RISK is my first negative
Comes from a 6f race and none of the 45 winners did that
He was comfortably beaten just 6 days ago
That was only his first run since June
Asking a lot to step up 2f and win this
I looked at every 8f listed and group race
Thats any race any month
Looked for any winners with recent runs over 6f
None won aged 4 or more
FLIGHT RISK would become the first if winning
AKIRA is unsafe on my breeding stats
All horses sired by Acclamation
Running over a Mile or more on turf
Running in Listed Class or higher
All 40 of these horses were beaten
This 0-40 record tells me AKIRA may not stay in the class
CORAIL is a 3yo filly absent 51 days
Fillies aged 3 absent more than 22 days are 0-23
CORAIL is not my first choice absent over twice that
Shortlist
SRUTHAN has positives and negatives
I don't like the fact he has only 1 run since May
He will improve but he looked unfit last time
BRENDAN BRACKAN unseated last time
Means he hasn't raced in 48 days
Several past winners had similar absences
He has history in this race runner up in 2013
He had a Group 3 penalty that year and should have won
Selection
BRENDAN BRACKAN 7/2
Each Way
1/4 the odds 1-2 places
Cork 4.10
9/2 Dewdrop, 9/2 Niven, 13/2 Palmones, 7/1 Brontide
8/1 Henshaw, 10/1 Angelic Demon, 10/1 Dancing On Air
10/1 Verbosity, 12/1 Candelaria, 12/1 Caribbean Spring
12/1 Ravens Hill.
This is a 2yo Nursery over an extended mile
I ran some breeding stats
Only 2 horses failed these breeding tests
They were Brontide and Verbosity
The only sire that's never bred a 2yo winner over 8f +
I ran some draw statistics as well
Since 2011 Stalls 10 or more are just 1-60
Only 2 horses failed my Draw Stats
They were also Brontide and Verbosity
Therefore I would avoid both horses in any bet
No Selection
M a r k e t R a s e n 4.25
9/4 Presenting Lisa, 7/2 Pixiepot, 11/2 Barton Rose
11/2 Cul Dealga, 6/1 Lily Little Legs, 13/2 Impeccability
20/1 Goodoldhonkytonk.
This is a Mares Handicap Hurdle over 2m 4f
Probably the wrong day to be looking at this race
There are 33 of these races run in October
If you look at seasonal debutants
That come from Novice or Maiden Hurdles
They have a 1-34 record
Those that had under 5 hurdle starts were 0-18
PRESENTING LISA does this with only 2 runs
CUL DEALGA has the same problems
September October November
Mares Handicap Hurdles
Any Distance
Horses from Novice or Maiden Hurdles
Absent longer than 3 months
Under 4 Hurdle runs
There was a 2-36 record with these types
Only 1 horse managed it with 2 hurdle runs
That horse (Lady Of Fortune) had achieved more
She had Listed Bumper form and had won over hurdles
PRESENTING LISA is a bit inexperienced given her price
I wouldn't call her a very good negative
But her profile is not strong and she is a short price
I would rather look for something at better odds
CUL DEALGA is rejected for similar reasons
IMPECCABILITY hasn't achieved enough yet
PIXIEPOT lacks class but is the fittest horse
BARTON ROSE is the Class horse with unknown fitness
I will go with both horses in a win bet and saver
Selection
Staked to £10
£6.00 Win BARTON ROSE 7/2
£4.00 Win PIXIEPOT 4/1
C o r k 5.20
9/4 Rainfall Radar, 9/2 Bunk Off Early, 6/1 Angel Bay
8/1 Bridle Path, 8/1 Intifadah, 8/1 Vocal Velocity
12/1 Hushed Tones, 14/1 Gladiator King, 14/1 Neatly Put
25/1 Sea Captain, 33/1 Glib Speech, 33/1 Mclovin Riverdance
33/1 Papal Parade, 33/1 Youceeyouceecee, 100/1 Maple Noble
100/1 Marianor, 100/1 Paddytheirishman, 100/1 Usain.
This is a maiden over a mile
Huge field but there are some interesting issues
Since 2011 Cork has had 17 races over this trip
Horses drawn 10 or higher are 1-60 in these races
Not a good course and distance for high drawn horses
Several fancied horses have nasty draws
RAINFALL RADAR has a bad draw in Stall 13
It may seem ridiculous to say this given her form
But I don't think She is a guaranteed stayer
Her father didn't stay and I'm not convinced
BUNK OFF EARLY has a horrible draw in Stall 18
Not overkeen she comes from a 12f race either
GLADIATOR KING - I don't want a 6yo down half a mile
INTIFADAH - Unraced and badly drawn in stall 14
His sire's never had an unraced horse win over 8f
When the ground is on the softer side
SEA CAPTAIN is rejected from Stall 18 when unraced
NEATLY PUT - I don't want a 5yo drawn 17 absent so long
VOCAL VELOCITY fails my breeding stats
His sire's few winners over 8f + all had at least 3 runs
He is also drawn higher than ideal in Stall 11
HUSHED TONES - His last run damages his profile
Shortlist
BRIDLE PATH - Unraced but draw fine and good trainer
ANGEL BAY has one of the safest profiles and is well drawn
Her numbers aren't impressive but she must go quite well
Thats assuming she doesn't muck about at the start
She has played up a bit once or twice
Selection
ANGEL BAY 5/1
Each Way
W o l v e r h a m p t o n 6.15
5/2 Zain Time, 11/4 Helvetia, 4/1 Comparative
7/1 Redalani, 8/1 Knotty Jack, 10/1 Spiritual Journey
20/1 Cerulean Silk, 20/1 Milly Royale, 33/1 Sirdaab
50/1 Harpers Ruby.
This is a 3yo maiden over 5f
None of these can be guaranteed to be fit
Lots have absences or just 1 run in months
There really is not a solid fit option
My problem with HELVETIA is the trip
All 3 of his runs have been over further
His sire has not yet bred a 5f winner although few tried
The sire himself started his career racing over 7f
You couldn't be sure it will suit him
SIRDAAB seems to be regressing fast
I don't want the unraced KNOTTY JACK
COMPARATIVE has raced just once in a year
He has just downgraded stables cheaply
Drawn 1 from a weak stable I feel no love for him
REDALANI was hammered last time
That was his first run in 8 months
Far from certain that he will be fit enough
SPIRITUAL JOURNEY has a huge absence
He could be too exposed to overcome that
ZAIN TIME
I like ZAIN TIME best
I thought She ran a brilliant race on his debut
Because of that I fancied her at Doncaster
He disappointed that day
If you watch that run you will see her size
She looks a very tall leggy horse with a powerful frame
Perhaps She was just too weak to win last time
I think there is a very good horse here
I can't be sure what her chances are today
Whether She can show her best or not
But I hate the other options
And She is the only potentially decent horse here
So I am going with her hoping She will show is today
Selection
ZAIN TIME 9/4
Win Bet
W o l v e r h a m p t o n 6.45
4/1 Meandmyshadow, 6/1 Effusive, 6/1 Queen Aggie
6/1 You´re My Cracker, 8/1 Burren View Lady, Debt Free Dame
8/1 Perardua, 10/1 Available, 10/1 Shades Of Silk
14/1 Tweety Pie, 25/1 Lady Gemini.
This is a fillies handicap over 6f
Not doing the race to completion
Just mentioning the race because of an age statistic
There are 15 of these races in October
Horses aged 3 and 4 won all 15 of them
Horses aged 5 or more had a 0-48 record
Because of that I would choose a younger 3-4yo
No strong view about what to select here
DEBT FREE DAME 3/1 has to be part of the staking plan
YOU´RE MY CRACKER 11/2 is also one to consider
I would bet one of these and save on the other.
W o l v e r h a m p t o n 7.15
7/2 Yorkshireman, 4/1 Illya Kuryakin, 6/1 Sky Rose
7/1 Ballyfarsoon, 7/1 Lacey, 8/1 Madrasa, 9/1 Nora Batty
10/1 Rock Of Ages, 16/1 Sakhra, 33/1 North Bay Lady.
This is a 2m handicap
There are 71 similar handicaps over 2m + in October
One of the themes in this race is fitness
Which horses are fit or in form and not many are
YORKSHIREMAN has a 173 day absence
Exposed horses aged 5 or more like him
Have a 2-62 record when absent over 7 weeks
There were 2 that won at Lingfield like him
None elsewhere but he can't be a negative
He may win but he shouldn't be so short in the market
BALLYFARSOON has raced just once in 90 days
He doesn't have much backclass either
NORTH BAY LADY has raced just once in 89 days
LACEY has raced just once in 81 days
Neither can be sure to be at peak fitness
ROCK OF AGES and MADRASA also look short of fitness
NORA BATTY comes here out of form
SAKHRA needs to bounce back from a poor last run
ILLYA KURYAKIN has a reasonable chance
Stableform a worry and he has just downgraded yards
Selection
SKY ROSE has the best profile
I looked at 3yo fillies with under 7 runs
When coming from 1m 5f or less
There were 2 winners that managed that
SKY ROSE also sails through my breeding stats
SKY ROSE 5/1
Win Bet
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Best Wishes
Guy Ward
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk
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